ST.

MARKS CLASS XII

PUBLIC SCHOOL SCIENCE (24-25)

Math
INVESTIGATORY
PROJECT

SUBMITTED TO: PANKAJ PACHAURI

SUBMITTED BY:: PRATIKSHA CHANDRA

 Certificate
This is to clarify that

Pratiksha Chandra
has successfully completed her Mathematics Project titled
‘Probability’
under the supervision and guidance of

Sir Pankaj Pachauri

in the partial fulfillment of the Math practical assessment
conducted during the academic year 2024-2025.

EXAMINER TEACHER

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 Acknowledgement

I would like to express my immense gratitude to my

maths teacher Pankaj Pachauri for the help and
guidance he provided for completing this project.

I also thank my parents who gave their ideas and

inputs in making this project. Most of all i thank our
school management for providing me the facilities
and opportunity to do this project.

Lastly, i am grateful to my laptop and the resources

provided to me that made researching for the project
easier.

~Pratiksha Chandra

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 Index
Content Page

Certificate 2
Acknowledgement 3
Index Itself 4
Topic 5
Introduction 6
Conditional Probability 9
Independent Event 10
Baye’s Theorem 12
Conclusion 13
Summary 16
Bibiliography 16

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 Topic

Probability

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 Introduction
Probability means possibility. It is a branch of
mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a
random event. The value is expressed from zero to one.
Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict
how likely events are to happen.

Rolling a 14 Heads Sunrise

Impossible Even Chance Certain

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to

occur. Many events cannot be predicted with total
certainty. We can predict only the chance of an event to
occur i.e. how likely they are to happen, using it.
Probability can range in from 0 to 1, where 0 means the
event to be an impossible one and 1 indicates a certain
event. The probability of all the events in a sample
space adds up to 1.

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 P (heads)
= 1/2 = 0.5

For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head or

Tail, only two possible outcomes are possible. But if we
toss two coins in the air, there could be three
possibilities of events to occur, such as both the coins
show heads or both shows tails or one shows heads and
one tail, i.e. (H, H), (H, T), (T, T).

Probability theory is widely used in the area of studies

such as statistics, finance, gambling, artificial
intelligence, machine learning, computer science, game
theory, and philosophy.

Probability of an Event:
Assume an event ‘E’ can occur in ‘r’ ways out of a sum
of ‘n’ probable or possible equally likely ways. Then the
probability of happening of the event or its success is
expressed as:

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 The probability that the event will not occur or known
as its failure is expressed as:

Equally Likely Events:

When the events have the same theoretical probability
of happening, then they are called equally likely events.
The results of a sample space are called equally likely if
all of them have the same probability of occurring. For
example, if you throw a die, then the probability of
getting 1 is 1/6.

Complementary Events:
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes
with states that an event will occur or not. Like a person
will come or not come out of your house. Basically, the
complement of an event occurring in the exact opposite
that the probability of it is not occuring.

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 Conditional
Probability
Yhe conditional probability of ‘A’ given ‘B’ is the
probability that event ‘A’ has occurred in a trial of a
random experiment for which it is known that event ‘B’
has definitely occurred.

It may be computed by means of the following formula:

Suppose a fair die has been rolled and you are asked to
give the probability that it was a five. There are six
equally likely outcomes, so your answer is 1/6. But
suppose that before you give your answer you are given
the extra information that the number rolled was odd.
Since there are only three odd numbers that are
possible, one of which is five, you would certainly
revise your estimate of the likelihood that a five was
rolled from 1/6 to 1/3.

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 Independent
Event
In probability, two events are independent if the
incidence of one event does not affect the probability of
the other event. If the incidence of one event does
affect the probability of the other event, then the events
are dependent.

There is a red 6-sided fair die and a blue 6-sided faor

die. Both dice are rolled at the same time. Let A be the
event that the red die’s result is even. Let B be the event
that the blue die’s result is odd. The outcome of the red
die has no impact on the outcome of he blue die.
Likewise, the outcome of the blue die does not affect
the outcome of the red die.

P (A) = 1/2 regardless of whether B happens or not.

P (B) = 1/2 regardless of whether A happens or not.

Therefore, the events are independent.

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There are 3 green marbles and 5 blue marbles in a
bag. Two marbles are drawn from the bag at random.
Let G be the event that the first marble drawn is
green. Let B be the event that the second marble
drawn is blue.

Case 1: G happens
When the first marble drawn is green, there are 7
marbles left in the bag, and 5 of them are blue. In this
case, P (B) = 5/7.

Case 2: G does not happen

When the first marble if blue, there are 7 marbles left
in the bag, and 4 of them are blue. In this case, P (B) =
4/7.

The incidence of G affects the probability of B.

Therefore, these events are not independent, they
are dependent.
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 Baye’s
Theorem
Statement:
Let E1, E2,..., En be a set of events associated with a
sample space S, where all the events E1, E2,..., En have
nonzero probability of occurrence and they form a
partition from S. Let A be any event associated with S,
then according to Bayes theorem,

for any k= 1, 2, 3,...,n

Proof:
According to the conditional probability formula,

Using the multiplication rule of probability,

Using total probability theorem,

from (2) & (3) in (1),

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 Conclusion
Applications:
Some of the applications of probability are predicting
the outcome when you:
Flipping a coin.
Choosing a card from the deck.
Throwing a dice.
Pulling a green candy from a bag of red candies.
Winning a lottery 1 inn many millions.

Real-Life Examples:
Weather Planning:
A probability forecast is an assessment of how likely an
event can occur in terms of percentage and record the
risks associated with weather. Meteorologists around
the world use different instruments and tools to predict
weather changes. They collect the weather forecast
database from around the world to estimate the
temperature changes and probable weather conditions
for a particular hour, day, week, and a month.

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Example: If there are 40% chances of raining then the
weather condition is such that 40 out of 100 days it has
rained.

Sports Strategies:
In sports, analyses are conducted with the help of
probability to understand the strengths and weaknesses
of a particular team or player. Analysts use probability
and odds to foretell outcomes regarding the team’s
performance and members in the sport.

Coaches use probability as a tool to determine in what

areas their team is strong enough and in which all areas
they have to work to attain victory. Trainers even use
probability to gauge the capacity of a particular player
in his team and when to allow him to play and against
whom.

Example: A cricket coach evaluates a player’s batting

and bowling capability by taking his average
performances in previous matches before placing him
in the line-up.

Insurance:
Insurance companies use the theory of probability or
theoretical probability for framing a policy or
completing at a premium rate.
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The theory of probability is a stastistical methods used
to predict the possibility of future outcomes.

Example: Issuing health insurance for an alcoholic

person is likely to be more expensive compared to the
one issued to a healthy person. Statistical analysis
shows high health risks for a regular alcoholic person,
ensuring them is a great financial risk given a higher
probability of serious illness and hence filing a claim of
premium money.

In games:
Blackjack, poker, gambling, all sports, board games,
video games use probability to know how likely a team
or person has chances to win.

Example: When two dices are rolled simultaneously,

the outcomes will be as given below,

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 Summary
Probability plays a vital role in day-to-day life. In the
weather forecast, spots and gaming strategies, buying or
selling insurance, online shopping and online games,
determining blood groups, and analysing political
strategies.

Bibliography
Wikipedia.com
Byju’s.com
Google Scholar Articles
Mathematics NCERT book for class XII
Mathematics for Class XII - R S Agarwal
Mathematics for Class XII - R D Sharma

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