Optimizing The
Optimizing The
ABSTRACT
The integration of satellite data in rainfall-runoff simulation is of paramount importance in regions where data are
limited and not easily available. The data used in this study, concerning the daily precipitation and daily runoff
during the period extending from 2007 to 2015, were measured and recorded in situ. This study aims primarily to
optimize the performance of the modeling carried out, using data from various satellite sources in order to com-
plete the missing data, and consequently to predict the liquid flow in the Beni Bahdel watershed, in the northwest-
ern region of Algeria, by applying the long short-term memory (LSTM) learning model. It is important to know
that the optimization of rainfall-runoff modeling is based on the use of satellite data relating to evapotranspira-
tion, mean temperatures, minimum and maximum temperatures, net radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity.
These data come from the NOAA CPC, ERA, ERA5_AG, ERA5-Land, GLDAS, CFSR and MERRA2 satellites.
In addition, two statistical indicators were calculated to perform this optimization that is based on the LSTM ap-
proach that integrates remote sensing data, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency
(NSE). Thus, a performance difference of about 0.30 was observed, for the NSE and R² coefficients, between the
CFSR temperature data (NSE of 0.61and R² of 0.61) and the maximum and minimum temperature data from the
ERA5-LAND and ERA5 satellite sources (0.92 for NSE and 0.93 for R²), for the validation period. This significant
difference suggests that the use of the minimum and maximum temperature data from the ERA5-LAND source
allows achieving a rainfall-runoff modeling wih optimal performance. Indeed, the findings showed that quite high
performances were achieved for the calibration period (0.93 for NSE and 0.95 for R²) and for the validation period
(0.92 for NSE and 0.93 for R²).
Keywords: optimization, modeling, satellite data, long short-term memory, Beni Bahdel, Algeria
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processes. For example, (Yu et al., 2024) con- system (GLDAS). Moreover, other studies were
ducted a study, in northern China, to develop a conducted by a number of researchers who used
runoff simulation model using multi-source satel- precipitation, wind, relative humidity, solar radia-
lite data. For this, these researchers relied on the tion data in the field of hydrogeology (Derdour et
precipitation data from the precipitation estima- al., 2022; Inan et al., 2024). Nevertheless, to the
tion from remotely sensed information using arti- best of our knowledge, the comparison of multi-
ficial neural networks – climate data record (PER- source satellite data in rainfall-runoff modeling
SIANN-CDR), surface temperature data from has not been sufficiently investigated in Algeria,
MOD11C1, a product developed by moderate which constitutes a good research opportunity for
resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), those working in this field.
the evapotranspiration data, and soil moisture It should be pointed out that, in the study area
data from Global land evaporation amsterdam under consideration, we only have observed precipi-
model (GLEAM). Similarly, in South Korea (Cho tation and flow data. It turns out that using neural
& Kim, 2022) conducted a study in which they ex- networks for rainfall-runoff modeling represents a
ploited the local data assimilation and prediction solution to this problem. In this case, only precipi-
system (LDAPS) meteorological data, while in- tation data are considered as input variable. How-
tegrating precipitation, temperature data, surface ever, it should be emphasized that the present work
pressure data, and some surface wind elements, aims primarily to optimize the performance of flow
with specific humidity and radiation data. Like- simulation, while integrating input parameters from
wise, in Egypt (Abdelmoneim et al., 2020) used different satellite data sources, in addition to pre-
data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission cipitation data measured and recorded in situ. These
(TRMM 3B42V7) and climate hazards group parameters were selected based on their relationship
infra-red precipitation with station (CHIRPS) with the estimation of evapotranspiration.
data satellite precipitation products as inputs to
establish an appropriate hydrological model. As
for Darand et al. (2017), they carried out a study MATERIALS AND METHODS
in Iran with a view to assessing the tropical rain-
fall measuring mission (TRMM) multi-satellite Presentation of the study region
precipitation analysis (TMPA) precipitation prod-
ucts. In addition, a particularly interesting study In this article, the Beni Bahdel watershed was
was conducted in Ethiopia by (Gebremicael et al., chosen and studied (Figure 1). It is located in the
2019) with the purpose of analyzing satellite pre- northwest of Algeria, between longitudes 1°8’ W
cipitation data from satellite-based rainfall prod- and 1°47’ W, and latitudes 34°33’ N and 34°41’
ucts CHIRPS, RFEv2 (Rainfall Estimates version N. The Beni Bahdel watershed covers an area of
2), TRMM and PERSIANN. 989 Km2 and crosses five rural municipalities, i.e.
It is important to point out that several Alge- Ain Ghoraba, Beni Bahdel, Beni Snous, Azail
rian researchers have used satellite-based rainfall and Sebdou, where the main activity is agricul-
products due to the scarcity of data in some ar- ture. In the year 1930, the Beni Bahdel concrete
eas. In this regard, (Lazri et al., 2020) performed dam, with a capacity of 63 million m3, was built
a study that focused on improving precipitation at the outlet of the watershed where the two main
estimation in northern Algeria. The remote sens- Wadis, namely Wadi Khemis and Wadi Sebdou,
ing data used include multispectral images from meet. It should be noted that the climate in this re-
the spinning enhanced visible and infrared im- gion is semi-arid. This area is characterized by a
ager (SEVIRI) radiometer as well as satellite pre- mountainous relief, with a predominance of karst
cipitation data obtained from the climate predic- geological formations. This favors the infiltration
tion center morphing technique (CMORPH) and of precipitation (Bouguerra & Mansour, 2023).
TRMM 3B42 products. In particular (Bemmous-
sat et al., 2021) benefited from the contribution Data used
of satellite precipitation for the rainfall-runoff
Observed data
hydrological modeling in the region of Ham-
mam Boughrara (Algeria), using precipitation The observed data, which were used in this
data from TRMM 3B43V7 and evapotranspi- study, include information on daily precipita-
ration data from Global land data assimilation tion (mm), and daily runoff (mm), from January
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Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology 2025, 26(2), 407–419
1, 2007 to December 31, 2015. These data were • Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)
provided by the National Agency for Hydrau- produced by National Centers for Environ-
lic Resources (ANRH – Agence Nationale des mental Prediction (NCEP); this system is
Ressources Hydrauliques). In addition, the managed by NOAA.
arithmetic means from the three rainfall sta-
tions, i.e. Khemis, Beni Bahdel and Sebdou Hydrological modeling
stations, as well as the sum of the runoffs from
the hydrometric stations, i.e. Wadi Khemis and Long-short term memory
Wadi Sebdou, were used for the rainfall-runoff Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a type of
modeling (Figure 1). recurrent neural network (RNN) that was initially
designed by (Hochreiter & Schmidhuber, 1997)
Satellite data and was then developed by many other research-
It is worth emphasizing that several satellite data ers over time. It has been revealed that these neu-
were used as input parameters in the model, along ral networks can be used in modeling the depen-
with precipitation data, for the purpose of optimizing dencies of long time series data with high accura-
the performance of the flow simulation. These data cy (Mao et al., 2021). In addition, LSTM can also
include information on evapotranspiration, mean, be adopted for rainfall-runoff prediction because
maximum, and minimum temperature, radiation, this approach represents a major advance to vari-
wind speed, and humidity. All these data were down- ous fundamental problems in the hydrological do-
loaded for free from the Climate Engine, POWER, main (Hashemi et al., 2022). In this regard, many
and Giovanni websites. These sites provide weather studies have been carried out by (Cho & Kim,
and climate data from the following sources: 2022; Lees et al., 2021; Sabzipour et al., 2023)
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- with the aim of comparing the performances of
tion Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC) LSTM networks and classical hydrological mod-
• European Reanalysis Analysis 5th Genera- els in the simulation of flows. The results proved
tion (ERA5) that neural predictions are more efficient.
• European Reanalysis Analysis 5th Generation These positive results regarding neural net-
Agroclimatology (ERA5_AG) works motivated our choice to adopt the deep
• European Reanalysis Analysis 5th Generation learning (DP) technique in our investigation.
land (ERA5 Land) With regard to modeling, it was deemed interest-
• Global Land Data Assimilation System ing to use LSTMs as a black box, while respect-
(GLDAS). ing the following tasks:
• Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Re- Provide the model with the necessary input
search and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) data such as the observed precipitation and other
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Figure 3. Linear correlation between precipitation and measured runoff, during the period between 2007 and 2015)
Figure 4. Linear regression between measured and simulated runoff, using the LSTM model,
for the test period between 2014 and 2015
confirm that it is more advantageous to use neural between different variables, using only a limited
networks than classical models which include at number of data (Yu et al., 2024)
least evapotranspiration, in addition to rainfall as
input data, and sometimes even other parameters, Rainfall-runoff modeling
such as pedology, land cover, slope, and others.
The development and adoption of deep learning The modeling, in which only precipitation
(DL) is highly beneficial for hydrological model- was used as input, gave quite satisfactory results.
ing as it helps to detect the non-linear relationship However, these results were further improved
Figure 5. Observed daily runoff and simulated runoff, using only measured rainfall
and observed runoff as inputs in the LSTM model
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Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology 2025, 26(2), 407–419
by adding other parameters (Table 2). It should systems. On the other hand, the results ob-
also be noted that the performances are gener- tained from the ERA5-Land satellite are the
ally good, for training and prediction, with NSE weakest in comparison with the other sources.
values ranging from satisfactory to excellent, and The high performances from NOAA CPC and
R² values generally quite high. With regard to in- MERRA-2 are certainly due to the quality
terpretation of the results obtained, it was agreed and accuracy of the data that these satellites
to focus mainly on the prediction ones which are provide. Observations from both systems and
considered essential for the evaluation, compari- ground stations are also integrated (Okirya et
son and ranking of the models. These outcomes al., 2024; Yakubailik et al., 2020; Chaudhari et
allow a better understanding of the effectiveness al., 2004). The method adopted here allows to
of the different models tested. better estimate the variations of evapotranspi-
ration (Núñez et al., 2021; Olioso et al., 2022).
Interpretation of modeling results by input group It is noteworthy that evapotranspiration is a
crucial factor in a region like northwestern Al-
The main purpose of this section is to evaluate geria where climatic conditions vary consider-
the performance of each dataset in order to analyze ably due to the proximity to the Mediterranean
and compare the quality of modeling using input Sea and the Atlas Mountains (Born & Bachner,
parameters from different satellite data sources. 2003; Meddi, 2015). In addition, the NOAA
• Evapotranspiration – the impact of different CPC and MERRA-2 data are distinguished by
evapotranspiration data sources on rainfall- their high spatial and temporal resolution, their
runoff modeling reveals variations in per- advanced data assimilation techniques (Khat-
formance, with very satisfactory results ob- ibi & Krauter, 2021), and their adaptability to
tained data from NOAA CPC and MERRA-2 the specific conditions of regions with sparse
Table 2. Performance results and training parameters, using different satellite data
Training Prediction
Group Parameters Satellite sources
NSE R 2
NSE R2
NOAA CPC 0.92 0.94 0.84 0.85
ERA5_AG 0.91 0.93 0.81 0.87
GLDAS 0.88 0.89 0.73 0.78
1 Evapotranspiration MERRA2 0.92 0.92 0.87 0.89
CFSR 0.91 0.93 0.76 0.78
ERA5 0.88 0.89 0.79 0.79
ERA5 LAND 0.79 0.82 0.76 0.76
ERA5_AG 0.95 0.96 0.91 0.91
MERRA2 0.95 0.96 0.86 0.86
2 Temperature CFSR 0.80 0.81 0.61 0.61
ERA5 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.93
ERA5 LAND 0.89 0.90 0.82 0.82
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monitoring network, such as northwestern semi-arid environments where they can have
Algeria (El & Kerroumi, 2022; White et al., a significant impact (Levesque, 2022). In ad-
2008)where the climatic conditions are quite dition, ERA5-Land adapts mainly to semi-arid
complex and can vary significantly. Such an regions where temperature directly affects hy-
approach allows providing more accurate and drological processes, which helps to achieve
reliable evapotranspiration estimates. more accurate runoff modeling. Finally, the
• Temperature – as concerns temperatures, the extended temporal coverage and data consis-
ERA5_AG data evidently achieve an excellent tency provided by ERA5-Land facilitate more
performance level. The very good outcomes efficient calibration of LSTM models (Muñoz-
are obviously attributed to the high resolution Sabater et al., 2021), which allows for more
of this data source, the quality of reanalyses, accurate simulations. All these observations
the combination of multiple data sources, the lead to the conclusion that ERA5-Land out-
long-term consistency of this source, its adapt- performs other data sources.
ability to various regions, as well as the con- • Radiation – the solar radiation results ob-
tinuous updates that ensure the accuracy and tained from the CFSR reanalysis product
relevance of temperature data (Kassem et al., show slightly better performance than other
2024). In compliance with these results, Ma sources. The Nash and R² values obtained
et al. (2008) also found out that data from the suggest that the model used simulates the flow
global reanalysis dataset ERA-40 provided an with a fairly high accuracy using the CFSR
excellent match with the temperature mea- radiation data. Moreover, the achieved per-
surements that were recorded in China, al- formance was found quite consistent with the
though ERA-40 is a rather old version. These findings of (Khaled et al., 2014) who evalu-
findings then suggest that the global weather ated the accuracy of CFSR solar radiation data
dataset ERA5_AG is the most reliable data and compared it with that of the ground-based
source because it offers better robustness and measurements made in the MENA region. The
precision for temperatures compared to other study found that CFSR data generally show
sources. These findings corroborate the excel- good agreement with ground-based observa-
lent NSE and R² results obtained. tions, especially in the regions of Egypt and
• Min-max temperature – the minimum and Northwest Africa where the normalized mean
maximum temperatures from the reanalysis bias coefficients were low and the correlation
dataset ERA5-Land allowed achieving an coefficients high, reaching the value of 0.982.
optimal flow simulation performance, which • Radiation, wind speed, humidity – the results
means that using min-max temperature data of the modeling integrating radiation, wind
from the ERA5-Land source leads to superi- speed and humidity, show that CFSR out-
or performances compared to those obtained performs MERRA2 as input data source in
from the other data sources. The good results the LSTM model. This is due to several fac-
obtained are due to several reasons. First, the tors. First, the spatial and temporal resolution
ERA5-Land source which offers a precise spa- of CFSR is slightly more precise than that of
tial resolution of 9 km (Arsenault et al., 2020) MERRA. Indeed, CFSR has a resolution of
is particularly advantageous for detecting lo- 0.5° x 0.5° (Saha et al., 2010), while MERRA-2
cal climatic variations. These variations are has a slightly lower resolution, namely 0.5° x
crucial in a semi-arid region like northwestern 0.625° (Khatibi & Krauter, 2021). It should be
Algeria where microclimatic variations are emphasized that this accuracy is particularly
important due to the diversity of terrain and important in regions, such as northwestern Al-
vegetation, and surface characteristics. In- geria, where specific climatic conditions can
deed, according to (Aimé & Remaoun, 1988), have a significant impact on the results (Irvem
these circumstances can change rapidly over & Ozbuldu, 2018; Khaled et al., 2014).
short distances. Next, the climate data pro-
vided by ERA5-Land are regularly updated Furthermore, the diversity of data types in-
and adjusted from multiple observations, tegrated in CFSR is remarkable, including direct
which ensures greater reliability of extreme measurements of wind speed and humidity, from
temperatures that are highly important in various sources, such as ocean buoys, weather
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Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology 2025, 26(2), 407–419
stations and aircraft (Essou et al., 2016; Saha et the training phase is integrated into the evalua-
al., 2010). This multitude of data sources pro- tion, the ERA5-Land dataset stands out with an
motes a more robust modeling of dynamic param- excellent performance. It was indeed found that
eters, unlike MERRA-2 which could have a data the Nash coefficient was equal to 0.93 and R²
weighting and assimilation less adapted to these equal to 0.95 in the training phase, while the Nash
specific parameters (McClean et al., 2023). coefficient was equal to 0.92 and R² to 0.93 in the
validation period. Furthermore, (Figure 6) clearly
Global interpretation by comparison of the results shows that, for the test period, the data points are
of the modeling of the different input parameters tightly clustered around the regression line, con-
in the LSTM model from various satellite sources firming an almost perfect correlation between the
The results obtained with the LSTM model, observed and simulated data.
with the integration of different input parameters It should also be noted that the superposition of
from various satellite data sources, exhibit a vari- the two curves (Figure 7) shows that there is almost
ability that affects the flow simulation perfor- no mismatch between them, proving the strong fit
mance. Indeed, a difference of 0.31 was recorded between the observed and simulated results.
for NSE and 0.32 for R², between the temperature The excellent performance obtained with
data from the CSFR (NSE = 0.61 and R² = 0.61) ERA5-Land data can be explained as follows. It is
and the maximum and minimum temperature data observed that minimum and maximum tempera-
from ERA5-Land and ERA5 (NSE =0.92 and R² tures have a direct impact on several hydrologi-
= 0.93), which represents a very significant gap. cal processes, such as snowmelt, evaporation and
In addition, the performances of the minimum evapotranspiration, which significantly affect the
and maximum temperatures from the ERA5- river runoff (Wang et al., 2020). In addition, these
Land source and those of the temperature data temperatures reveal a wide range of climatic con-
from the ERA5 source are ranked equal, for the ditions, which allows the model to better detect and
considered validation periods. However, when predict watershed responses in extreme situations.
Figure 6. Linear regression between measured and simulated runoff, using the ERA5-Land dataset,
for the test period from 2014 to 2015
Figure 7. Observed and simulated daily runoffs, using the ERA5-Land dataset
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This should increase and improve the accuracy of with recurrent neural networks. In the future, it
forecasts (Zhang et al., 2023). Likewise, the inte- would be interesting to explore other data sources
gration of minimum and maximum temperatures to further improve the accuracy of hydrological
from remote sensing allows the LSTM model to forecasts in various contexts.
better understand the complex dynamics of runoff
in watersheds, hence maximizing its performance
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