Introduction to Probability

UNIT 1 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Structure
1.1 Introduction
Objectives
1.2 Random Experiment and Trial
1.3 Sample Space, Sample Point and Event
1.4 Exhaustive Cases, Favourable Cases, Mutually Exclusive Cases
and Equally Likely Cases
1.5 Classical or Mathematical Probability
1.6 Simple Problems on Probability
1.7 Concepts of Odds in Favour of and Against the Happening of an Event
1.8 Summary
1.9 Solutions/Answers

1.1 INTRODUCTION
In our daily lives, we face many situations when we are unable to forecast the
future with complete certainty. That is, in many decisions, the uncertainty is
faced. Need to cope up with the uncertainty leads to the study and use of the
probability theory. The first attempt to give quantitative measure of probability
was made by Galileo (1564-1642), an Italian mathematician, when he was
answering the following question on the request of his patron, the Grand Duke of
Tuscany, who wanted to improve his performance at the gambling tables: “With
three dice a total of 9 and 10 can each be produced by six different combinations,
and yet experience shows that the number 10 is oftener thrown than the number
9?” To the mind of his patron the cases were (1, 2, 6), (1, 3, 5), (1, 4, 4), (2, 2, 5),
(2, 3, 4), (3, 3, 3) for 9 and (1, 3, 6), (1, 4, 5), (2, 2, 6), (2, 3, 5), (2, 4, 4), (3, 3, 4)
for 10 and hence he was thinking that why they do not occur equally frequently
i.e. why there chances are not the same? Galileo makes a careful analysis of all
the cases which can occur, and he showed that out of the 216 possible cases 27
are favourable to the appearance of the number 10 since permutations of (1, 3, 6)
are (1, 3, 6), (1, 6, 3), (3, 1, 6), (3, 6, 1), (6, 1, 3), (6, 3, 1) i.e. number of
permutations of (1, 3, 6) is 6; similarly, the number of permutations of (1, 4, 5),
(2, 2, 6), (2, 3, 5), (2, 4, 4), (3, 3, 4) is 6, 3, 6, 3, 3 respectively and hence the total
number of cases come out to be 6 + 6 + 3 + 6 + 3 + 3 = 27 whereas the number of
favourable cases for getting a total of 9 on three dice are
6 + 6 + 3 + 3 + 6 + 1 = 25. Hence, this was the reason for 10 appearing oftener
thrown than 9. But the first foundation was laid by the two mathematicians Pascal
(1623-62) and Fermat (1601-65) due to a gambler's dispute in 1654 which led to
the creation of a mathematical theory of probability by them. Later, important
contributions were made by various researchers including Huyghens (1629 -
1695), Jacob Bernoulli (1654-1705), Laplace (1749-1827), Abraham De-Moivre
(1667-1754), and Markov (1856-1922). Thomas Bayes (died in 1761, at the age
of 59) gave an important technical result known as Bayes’ theorem, published
after his death in 1763, using which probabilities can be revised on the basis of
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some new information. Thereafter, the probability, an important branch of
Statistics, is being used worldwide.

We will start this unit with very elementary ideas. In other words, we are
assuming that reader knows nothing about probability. We will go step by step
clearing the basic ideas which are required to understand the probability. In this
unit, we will first present the various terms which are used in the definition of
probability and then we will give the classical definition of probability and simple
problems on it.

Objectives
After studing this unit, you should be able to:

 define and give examples of random experiment and trial;

 define and give examples of sample space, sample point and event;
 explain mutually exclusive, equally likely, exhaustive and favourable
cases and why they are different in nature and how much these terms are
important to define probability;
 explain the classical definition of probability;
 solve simple problems based on the classical definition of probability; and
 distinguish between odds in favour and odds against the happening of an
event.
Random Experiment
An experiment in which all the possible outcomes are known in advance but we
cannot predict as to which of them will occur when we perform the experiment,
e.g. Experiment of tossing a coin is random experiment as the possible outcomes
head and tail are known in advance but which one will turn up is not known.
Similarly, ‘Throwing a die’ and ‘Drawing a card from a well shuffled pack of 52 playing
cards ‘are the examples of random experiment.
Trial
Performing an experiment is called trial, e.g.

(i) Tossing a coin is a trial.

(ii) Throwing a die is a trial.

1.2 SAMPLE SPACE, SAMPLE POINT AND EVENT

Sample Space
Set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is known as sample space
and is usually denoted by S, and the total number of elements in the sample space
is known as size of the sample space and is denoted by n(S), e.g.
(i) If we toss a coin then the sample space is
S = {H, T}, where H and T denote head and tail respectively and n(S) = 2.
(ii) If a die is thrown, then the sample space is
 die has six faces 
6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and n(S) = 6.  
 numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 
 Introduction to Probability
(iii) If a coin and a die are thrown simultaneously, then the sample space is
S = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6} and n(S) = 12.
where H1 denotes that the coin shows head and die shows 1 etc.
Note: Unless stated the coin means an unbiased coin (i.e. the coin which favours
neither head nor tail).
(iv) If a coin is tossed twice or two coins are tossed simultaneously then the
sample space is
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT},
where HH means both the coins show head, HT means the first coin shows
head and the second shows tail, etc. Here, n(S) = 4.
(v) If a coin is tossed thrice or three coins are tossed simultaneously, then the
sample space is
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT} and n(S) = 8.
(vi) If a coin is tossed 4 times or four coins are tossed simultaneously then the
sample space is
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, HTHT, HTTH, THHT,
THTH, TTHH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT} and n(S) = 16.
(vii) If a die is thrown twice or a pair of dice is thrown simultaneously, then
sample space is
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6),
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
here, e.g., (1, 4) means the first die shows 1 and the second die shows 4.
Here, n(S) = 36.
(viii) If a family contains two children then the sample space is
S = {B1B2, B1G2, G1B2, G1G2}
where Bi denotes that i th birth is of boy, i = 1, 2, and
G i denotes that i th birth is of girl, i = 1, 2.

This sample space can also be written as

S = {BB, BG, GB, GG}
(ix) If a bag contains 3 red and 4 black balls and
(a) One ball is drawn from the bag, then the sample space is

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R1 , R 2 , B1 , B2 , B3 , B4  , where R1, R2, R3 denote three red balls and
B1 , B2 , B3 , B4

denote four black balls in the bag.

(b) Two balls are drawn one by one without replacement from the bag, then
the sample space is

S  {R 1R 2 , R1R 3 , R 1B1 , R1B2 , R 1B3 , R 1B4 , R 2 R 1 , R 2 R 3 , R 2 B1 , R 2 B2 , R 2 B3 , R 2 B 4 , R 3R 1 , R 3 R 2 ,

R 3 B1 , R 3 B2 , R 3B3 , R 3 B4 , B1R 1 , B1R 2 , B1R 3 , B1B2 , B1B3 , B1B4 , B2 R1 , B2 R 2 , B2 R 3 , B2 B1 ,
B2 B3 , B2 B4 , B3 R1 , B3R 2 , B3R 3 , B3B1 , B3 B2 , B3B4 , B4 R 1 , B4 R 2 , B4 R 3 , B4 B1 , B4 B2 , B4 B3}

Note: It is very simple to write the above sample space – first write all other
balls with R1, then with R2, then with R3 and so on.
Remark 1: If a random experiment with x possible outcomes is performed n
times, then the total number of elements in the sample is x n i.e. n(S) = x n , e.g. if
a coin is tossed twice, then n(S) = 22 =4; if a die is thrown thrice, then
n(S) = 63 = 216.
Now you can try the following exercise.

E1) Write the sample space if we draw a card from a pack of 52 playing cards.
Sample Point
Each outcome of an experiment is visualised as a sample point in the sample
space. e.g.
(i) If a coin is tossed then getting head or tail is a sample point.
(ii) If a die is thrown twice, then getting (1, 1) or (1, 2) or (1, 3) or…or (6, 6) is
a sample point.
Event
Set of one or more possible outcomes of an experiment constitutes what is known
as event. Thus, an event can be defined as a subset of the sample space, e.g.
i) In a die throwing experiment, event of getting a number less than 5 is the set
{1, 2, 3, 4},
which refers to the combination of 4 outcomes and is a sub-set of the sample
space
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
ii) If a card is drawn form a well-shuffled pack of playing cards, then the event
of getting a card of a spade suit is

1S , 2S ,3S ,...,9S ,10S , JS , QS , K S 

where suffix S under each character in the set denotes that the card is of
spade and J, Q and K represent jack, queen and king respectively.
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1.3 EXHAUSTIVE CASES, FAVOURABLE CASES,

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE CASES AND
EQUALLY LIKELY CASES
Exhaustive Cases
The total number of possible outcomes in a random experiment is called the
exhaustive cases. In other words, the number of elements in the sample space is
known as number of exhaustive cases, e.g.
(i) If we toss a coin, then the number of exhaustive cases is 2 and the sample
space in this case is {H, T}.
(ii) If we throw a die then number of exhaustive cases is 6 and the sample space
in this case is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Favourable Cases
The cases which favour to the happening of an event are called favourable cases.
e.g.
(i) For the event of drawing a card of spade from a pack of 52 cards, the
number of favourable cases is 13.
(ii) For the event of getting an even number in throwing a die, the number of
favourable cases is 3 and the event in this case is {2, 4, 6}.
Mutually Exclusive Cases
Cases are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of any one of them
prevents the happening of all others in a single experiment, e.g.
(i) In a coin tossing experiment head and tail are mutually exclusive as there
cannot be simultaneous occurrence of head and tail.
Equally Likely Cases
Cases are said to be equally likely if we do not have any reason to expect one in
preference to others. If there is some reason to expect one in preference to others,
then the cases will not be equally likely, For example,
(i) Head and tail are equally likely in an experiment of tossing an unbiased
coin. This is because if someone is expecting say head, he/she does not have
any reason as to why he/she is expecting it.
(ii) All the six faces in an experiment of throwing an unbiased die are equally
likely.
You will become more familiar with the concept of “equally likely cases” from
the following examples, where the non-equally likely cases have been taken into
consideration:
(i) Cases of “passing” and “not passing” a candidate in a test are not equally
likely. This is because a candidate has some reason(s) to expect “passing” or
“not passing” the test. If he/she prepares well for the test, he/she will pass
the test and if he/she does not prepare for the test, he/she will not pass. So,
here the cases are not equally likely.

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(ii) Cases of “falling a ceiling fan” and “not falling” are not equally likely. This
is because, we can give some reason(s) for not falling if the bolts and other
parts are in good condition.

1.5 CLASSICAL OR MATHEMATICAL

PROBABILITY
Let there be ‘n’ exhaustive cases in a random experiment which are mutually
exclusive as well as equally likely. Let ‘m’ out of them be favourable for the
happening of an event A (say), then the probability of happening event A
(denoted by P (A)) is defined as
Number of favourable cases for event A m
P(A) =  … (1)
Number of exhaustive cases n

 
Probability of non-happening of the event A is denoted by P A and is defined as

Number of favourable cases for event A n  m m

P(A)    1   1  P(A)
Number of exhaustive cases n n

So,  
P A  P A  1

Therefore, we conclude that, the sum of the probabilities of happening an event

and that of its complementary event is 1.
Let us now prove that 0  P(A)  1
Proof: We know that
0  Number of favourable cases  No of exhaustive cases
[ Number of favourable cases can never be negative and can at the most be
equal to the number of exhaustive cases.]
0 m n
Dividing both sides by n, we get
0 m n
= =
n n n
0  P(A)  1

Remark 2: Probability of an impossible event is always zero and that of

certain event is 1, e.g. probability of getting 7 when we throw a die is zero as
getting 7 here is an impossible event and probability of getting either of the six
faces is 1 as it is a certain event.
Classical definition of probability fails if
(i) The cases are not equally likely, e.g. probability of a candidate passing a test is
not defined.
 Pas sin g or failing in a test 
 are not equally likely cases.
 
(ii) The number of exhaustive cases is indefinitely large, e.g.
10
probability of drawing an integer say 2 from the set of integers i.e.
 Introduction to Probability
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..., 3,  2,  1, 0,1, 2,3,...} by classical definition probability, is = 0.

But, in actual, it is not so, happening of 2 is not impossible, i.e. there are some
chances of drawing 2. Hence, classical definition is failed here also.
Before we give some examples on classical definition of probability, let us
take up some examples which define the events as subsets of sample space.
Example 1: If a fair die is thrown once, what is the event of?
(i) getting an even number
(ii) getting a prime number
(iii) getting a number multiple of 3
(iv) getting an odd prime
(v) getting an even prime
(vi) getting a number greater than 4
(vii) getting a number multiple of 2 and 3

Solution: When a die is thrown, then the sample space is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
(i) Let E1 be the event of getting an even number,

 E1 = {2, 4, 6}

(ii) Let E 2 be the event of getting a prime number,

 E 2 = {2, 3, 5}

(iii) Let E 3 be the event of getting a number multiple of 3

 E 3 = {3, 6}

(iv) Let E 4 be the event of getting an odd prime,

 E 4 = {3, 5}

(v) Let E 5 be the event of getting an even prime,

 E 5 = {2}

(vi) Let E 6 be the event of getting a number greater than 4,

 E 6 = {5, 6}

(vii) Let E 7 be the event of getting a number multiple of 2 and 3,

 E 7 = {6}

Example 2: If a pair of a fair dice is thrown, what is the event of

(i) getting a doublet
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(ii) getting sum as 11

(iii) getting sum less than 5
(iv) getting sum greater than 16
(v) getting 3 on the first die
(vi) getting a number multiple of 3 on second die
(vii) getting a number multiple of 2 on first die and a multiple of 3 on second die.
Solution: When two dice are thrown, then the sample space is already given in
(vii) of Sec.1.3.
(i) Let E1 be the event of getting a doublet.
 E1 = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}

(ii) Let E 2 be the event of getting sum 11.

 E 2 = {(5, 6), (6, 5)}

(iii) Let E 3 be the event of getting sum less than 5 i.e. sum can be 2 or 3 or 4
 E 3 = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (1, 3), (3, 1), (2, 2)}

(iv) Let E 4 be the event of getting sum greater than 16.

 E 4 = { } i.e. E 4 is a null event.

(v) Let E 5 be the event of getting 3 on the first die i.e. 3 on first die and
second die may have any number
 E 5 = {(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}

(vi) Let E 6 be the event of getting a number multiple of 3 on second die

i.e. first die may have any number and the second has 3 or 6.
 E 6 = {(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 3), (4, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3),
(1, 6), (2, 6), (3, 6), (4, 6), (5, 6), (6, 6)}
(vii) Let E 7 be the event of getting a multiple of 2 on the first die and a multiple
of 3 on the second die i.e. 2 or 4 or 6 on first die and 3 or 6 on the second.
 E 7 = {(2, 3), (4, 3), (6, 3), (2, 6), (4, 6), (6, 6)}
Now, you can try the following exercise.

E2) If a die and a coin are tossed simultaneously, write the event of getting
(i) head and prime number
(ii) tail and an even number
(iii) head and multiple

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1.6 SIMPLE PROBLEMS ON PROBABILITY
Now let us give some examples so that you become familiar as to how and
when the classical definition of probability is used.
Example 3: A bag contains 4 red, 5 black and 2 green balls. One ball is drawn
from the bag. Find the probability that?
(i) It is a red ball
(ii) It is not black
(iii) It is green or black
Solution: Let R1 , R 2 , R 3 , R 4 denote 4 red balls in the bag. Similarly
B1 , B2 , B3 , B4 , B5 denote 5 black balls and G1 , G 2 denote two green balls in the
bag. Then the sample space for drawing a ball is given by

R1 , R 2 , R 3 , R 4 , B1 , B2 , B3 , B4 , B5 ,G1 , G 2 
(i) Let A be the event of getting a red ball, then A = { R1 , R 2 , R 3 , R 4 }

Number of favourable cases 4

 P(A)  
Number of exhaustive cases 11
(ii) Let B be the event that drawn ball is not black, then
B = { R1 , R 2 , R 3 , R 4 , G1 , G 2 }

Number of favourable cases 6

 P(B)  
Number of exhaustive cases 11
(iii) Let C be the event that drawn ball is green or black, then
C = { B1 , B2 , B3 , B4 , B5 , G1 , G 2 }.

Number of favourable cases 7

 P(C)  
Number of exhaustive cases 11

Example 4: Three unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability
of getting
(i) at least two heads
(ii) at most two heads
(iii) all heads
(iv) exactly one head
(v) exactly one tail
Solution: The sample space in this case is
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
(i) Let E1 be the event of getting at least 2 heads, then
E1 = {HHT, HTH, THH, HHH}
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Number of favourable cases 4 1
 P(E1 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 8 2

(ii) Let E 2 be the event of getting at most 2 heads then

E 2 = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, HHT, HTH, THH}
Number of favourable cases 7
 P(E 2 ) = =
Number of exhaustive cases 8

(iii) Let E 3 be the event of getting all heads, then

E 3 = {HHH}

Number of favourable cases 1

 P(E 3 ) = =
Number of exhaustive cases 8

(iv) Let E 4 be the event of getting exactly one head then

E 4 = {HTT, THT, TTH}

Number of favourable cases 3
 P(E 4 ) = =
Number of exhaustive cases 8

(v) Let E 5 be the event of getting exactly one tail, then

E 5 = {HHT, HTH, THH}

Number of favourable cases 3

 P(E 5 ) = =
Number of exhaustive cases 8
Example 5: A fair die is thrown. Find the probability of getting
(i) a prime number
(ii) an even number
(iii) a number multiple of 2 or 3
(iv) a number multiple of 2 and 3
(v) a number greater than 4

Solution: The sample space in this case is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
(i) Let E1 be the event of getting a prime number, then
E1 = {2, 3, 5}.
Number of favourable cases 3 1
 P(E1 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 6 2

16 (ii) Let E 2 be the event of getting an even number, then

 E 2 = {2, 4, 6}
Number of favourable cases 3 1
 P(E 2 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 6 2

(iii) Let E 3 event of getting a multiple of 2 or 3, then

E3 = {2, 3, 4, 6 }
Number of favourable cases 4 2
 P(E 3 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 6 3

(iv) Let E 4 event of getting a number multiple of 2 and 3, then

E 4 = {6}
Number of favourable cases 1
 P(E 4 ) = =
Number of exhaustive cases 6

(v) Let E 5 be the event of getting a number greater than 4, then

E 5 = {5, 6}

Number of favourable cases 2 1

 P(E 5 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 6 3

Example 6: In an experiment of throwing two fair dice, find the probability of

getting
(i) a doublet
(ii) sum 7
(iii) sum greater than 8
(iv) 3 on first die and a multiple of 2 on second die
(v) prime number on the first die and odd prime on the second die.
Solution: The sample space has already been given in (vii) of Sec. 1.3.
Here, the sample space contains 36 elements i.e. number of exhaustive cases is
36.
(i) Let E1 be the event of getting a doublet (i.e. same number on both dice), then
E1 = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}.
Number of favourable cases 6 1
 P(E1 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 36 6

(ii) Let E 2 be the event of getting sum 7, then

E 2 = {(1, 6), (6, 1), (2, 5), (5, 2), (3, 4), (4, 3)}
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Number of favourable cases 6 1
 P(E 2 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 36 6

(iii) Let E 3 be the event of getting sum greater than 8, then

E 3 = {(3, 6), (6, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4), (4, 6),

(6, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
Number of favourable cases 10 5
 P(E 3 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 36 18

(iv) Let E 4 be the event of getting 3 on first die and multiple of 2 on second die,
then
E 4 = {(3, 2), (3, 4), (3, 6)}
Number of favourable cases 3 1
 P(E 4 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 36 12

(v) Let E 5 be the event of getting prime number on first die and odd prime on
second die, then
E 5 = {(2, 3), (2, 5), (3, 3), (3, 5), (5, 3), (5, 5)}

Number of favourable cases 6 1

 P(E 5 ) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 36 6

Example 7: Out of 52 well shuffled playing cards, one card is drawn at random.
Find the probability of getting
(i) a red card
(ii) a face card
(iii) a card of spade
(iv) a card other than club
(v) a king

Solution: Here, the number of exhaustive cases is 52 and a pack of playing cards
contains 13 cards of each suit (spade, club, diamond, heart).
(i) Let A be the event of getting a red card. We know that there are 26 red cards,
Number of favourable cases 26 1
 P(A) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 52 2
(ii) Let B be the event of getting a face card. We know that there are 12 face cards
(jack, queen and king in each suit),

Number of favourable cases 12 3

 P(B) = = =
18 Number of exhaustive cases 52 13
Basic Concerpts in
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(iii) Let C be the event of getting a card of spade
We know that there are 13 cards of spade
Number of favourable cases 13 1
 P(C) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 52 4
(iv) Let D be the event of getting a card other than club.
As there are 39 cards other than that of club,.
Number of favourable cases 39 3
 P(D) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 52 4
(v) Let E be the event of getting a king.
We know that there are 4 kings,
Number of favourable cases 4 1
 P(E) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 52 13

Example 8: In a family, there are two children. Write the sample space and find
the probability that
(i) the elder child is a girl
(ii) younger child is a girl
(iii) both are girls
(iv) both are of opposite sex

Solution: Let G i denotes that i th birth is of girl (i = 1, 2) and Bi denotes that i th

birth is of boy, (i =1, 2).

 S = G1G 2 , G1B2 , B1G 2 , B1B2 

(i) Let A be the event that elder child is a girl
 A = G1G 2 , G1B2 
Number of favourable cases 2 1
and P(A) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 4 2
(ii) Let B be the event that younger child is a girl

 B = G1G 2 , B1G 2 
Number of favourable cases 2 1
and P(B) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 4 2
(iii) Let C be the event that both the children are girls
 C = G1G 2 
Number of favourable cases 1
and P(C) = =
18 Number of exhaustive cases 4
(iv) Let D be the event that both children are of opposite sex
 D = G1B2 , B1G 2 
Number of favourable cases 2 1
and P(D) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 4 2
Example 9: Find the probability of getting 53 sundays in a randomly selected
non-leap year.
Solution: We know that there are 365 days in a non-leap year.
365 1
= 52 weeks
7 7
i.e. one non-leap year = (52 complete weeks + one over day). This over day may
be one of the days
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday
So, the number of exhaustive cases = 7
Let A be the event of getting 53 Sundays
There will be 53 Sundays in a non leap year if and only if the over day is Sunday.
 Number of favourable cases for event A= 1
Number of favourable cases 1
 P(A) = =
Number of exhaustive cases 7
Example 10: A single letter selected at random from the word ‘STATISTICS’.
What is the probability that it is a vowel?
Solution: Here, as the total number of letters in the word ‘STATISTICS’ is
n = 10, and the number of vowels in the word is m = 3 (vowels are a, i, i),
Number of favourable cases m 3
 The required probability = = =
Number of exhaustive cases n 10
Example 11: Three horses A, B and C are in a race. A is twice as likely to win as
B and B is twice as likely to win as C. What are the respective probabilities of
their winning?
Solution: Let p be the probability that A wins the race.
 Probability that B wins the race = twice the probability of A’s winning
= 2(p) = 2 p
and probability of C’s winning = twice the probability of B’s winning
= 2(2p) = 4p
Now, as the sum of the probability of happening an event and that of its
complementary event(s) is 1. Here, the complementary of A is the happening of B
or C]
1
 p + 2p + 4p = 1, and hence p = .
7

19
Basic Concerpts in
Probility
1 2 4
Therefore, the respective chances of winning A, B and C are , and .
7 7 7
Now, let us take up some problems on probability which are based on
permutation/combination which you have already studied in Unit 4 of Course
MST-001.
Example 12: Out of 52 well shuffled playing cards, two cards are drawn at
random. Find the probability of getting.
(i) One red and one black
(ii) Both cards of the same suit
(iii) One jack and other king
(iv) One red and the other of club

52
Solution: Out of 52 playing cards, two cards can be drawn in C 2 ways i.e.

52×51
= 26×51 ways
2!
(i) Let A be the event of getting one red and one black card, then the number of
favourable cases for the event A are 26 C1  26 C1 [As one red card out of 26
26
red cards can be drawn in C1 ways and one black card out of 26 black
26
cards can be drawn in C1 ways.]
26
C1×26C1 26×26 26
 P(A) = 52
= =
C2 26×51 51
(ii) Let B be the event of getting both the cards of the same suit and i.e. two
cards of spade or two cards of club or 2 cards of diamond or 2 cards of
heart.
 Number of favourable cases for event B = 13 C 2 + 13 C 2 + 13 C 2 + 13 C 2

13×12
= 4×13 C2 = 4× = 2×13×12
2!
Number of favourable cases 2×13×12 4
 P(B) = = =
Number of exhaustive cases 26×51 17

(iii) Let C be the event of getting a jack and a king.

4
Number of favourable cases C1× 4 C1 4×4 8
 P(C) = = 52
= =
Number of exhaustive cases C2 26×51 663
(iv) Let D be the event of getting one red and one card of club.
26
Number of favourable cases C1×13 C1 26×13 13
 P(D) = = 52
= =
Number of exhaustive cases C2 26×51 51
20 Example 13: If the letters of the word STATISTICS are arranged randomly then
find the probability that all the three T’s are together.
Basic Concerpts in
Probility
Solution: Let E be the event that selected word contains 3 T’s together.
There are 10 letters in the word STATISTICS. If we consider three T’s as a
single letter TTT , then we have 8 letters i.e.1 ‘TTT’; 3 ‘S’ ; 1 ‘A’; 2 ‘I’ and 1
‘C’
8!
Number of possible arrangements with three T’s coming together =
2!.3!
8!
Number of favourable cases for event E = and
2!.3!
Number of exhaustive cases = Total number of permutations of 10 letters in the
word STATISTICS
10!
=
2!.3!.3!
out of 10 letters, 3 are T's, 2 are I's and 3 are S's
8!
8!.3! 8!×6 6 1
P(A) = 2!.3! = = = =
10! 10! 10×9×8! 10×9 15
2!.3!.3!
Example 14: In a lottery, one has to choose six numbers at random out of the
numbers from 1 to 30. He/ she will get the prize only if all the six chosen numbers
matched with the six numbers already decided by the lottery committee. Find the
probability of wining the prize.
Solution: Out of 30 numbers 6 can be drawn in
30 30  29  28  27  26  25 30  29  28  27  26  25
C6    593775 ways
6! 720
 Number of exhaustive cases = 593775
Out of these 593775 ways, there is only one way to win the prize (i.e. choose
those six numbers that are already fixed by committee).
Here, the number of favourable cases is 1.
Favourable cases 1
Hence, P(wining the prize) = =
Exhaustive cases 593775
Now, you can try the following exercises.
E3) If two coins are tossed then find the probability of getting.

(i) At least one head

(ii) head and tail
26 (iii) At most one head
E4) If three dice are thrown, then find the probability of getting
(i) triplet
(ii) sum 5
(iii) sum at least 17
(iv) prime number on first die and odd prime number on second and third
dice.
E5) Find the probability of getting 53 Mondays in a randomly selected leap year.

1.7 CONCEPT OF ODDS IN FAVOUR OF AND

AGAINST THE HAPPENING OF AN EVENT
Let n be the number of exhaustive cases in a random experiment which are
mutually exclusive and equally likely as well. Let m out of these n cases are
favourable to the happening of an event A (say). Thus, the number of cases
against A are n  m
Then odds in favour of event A are m : n  m (i.e. m ratio n  m ) and odds
against A are n  m : m (i.e. n  m ratio m )
Example 15: If odds in favour of event A are 3 : 4 , what is the probability of
happening A?
Solution: As odds in favour of A are 3 : 4 ,
 m  3 and n  m  4 implies that n  7.Thus,
m 3
Probability of happening A i.e. P(A) = = .
n 7
Example 16: Find the probability of event A if
(i) Odds in favour of event A are 4 : 3
(ii) Odds against event A are 5 : 8
Solution: (i) We know that if odds in favour of A are m:n , then
m 4 4
P(A)=  P(A) = =
m+n 4+3 7
(ii) Here, n  m  5 and m  8 , therefore, n=5 +8=13 .
Now, as we know that if odds against the happening of an event A are
n  m: n , then
m 8
P(A) =  P(A) =
n 13
3
Example 17 If P(A) = then find
5
(i) odds in favour of A; (ii) odds against the happening of event A.
27
Basic Concerpts in
Probility
3
Solution: (i) As P(A) = ,
5
 odds in favour of A in this case are 3:5  3 = 3:2

m
(ii) We know that if P(A) = , then odds against the happening of A are
n
n  m:m
 In this case odds against the happening of event A are 5  3 : 3 = 2 : 3
Now, you can try the following exercises.

E6) The odds that a person speaks the truth are 3 : 2. What is the probability
that the person speaks truth?
E7) The odds against Manager X setting the wage dispute with the workers are
8 : 6. What is the probability that the manager settles the dispute?
2
E8) The probability that a student passes a test is . What are the odds against
3
passing the test by the student?
E9) Find the probability of the event A if
(i) Odds in favour of the event A are 1 : 4 (ii) Odds against the event A are
7:2

1.8 SUMMARY
Let us now summarize the main points which have been covered in this unit.
1) An experiment in which all the possible outcomes are known in advance but
we cannot predict as to which of them will occur when we perform the
experiment is called random experiment. Performing an experiment is
called trial.
2) Set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is known as sample
space. Each outcome of an experiment is visualised as a sample point and
set of one or more possible outcomes constitutes what is known as event. The
total number of elements in the sample space is called the number of
exhaustive cases and number of elements in favour of the event is the
number of favourable cases for the event.
3) Cases are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening of any one of them
prevents the happening of all others in a single experiment and if we do not
have any reason to expect one in preference to others, then they are said to be
equally likely.
4) Classical Probability of happening of an event is the ratio of number of
favourable cases to the number of exhaustive cases, provided they are equally
likely, mutually exclusive and finite.
5) Odds in favour of an event are the number of favourable cases: number of cases
against the event, whereas Odds against the event are the number of cases against
28 the event : number of cases favourable to the event.
1.9 SOLUTIONS/ANSWERS
E 1) Let suffices C, D, S, H denote that corresponding card is a club, diamond,
spade, heart respectively then sample space of drawing a card can be written
as
{1C , 2C ,3C ,...,9C ,10C , J C , QC , K C ,1D , 2 D ,3D ,...,9 D ,10 D , J D , Q D , K D ,
1S , 2S ,3S ,...,9S ,10S , J S , QS , K S ,1H , 2 H ,3H ,...,9 H ,10 H , J H , Q H , K H }

E 2) If a die and a coin are tossed simultaneously then sample space is

{H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
(i) Let A be the event of getting head and prime number, then
A = {H2, H3, H5}
(ii) Let B be the event of getting tail and even number, then
B = {T2, T4, T6}
(iii) Let C be the event of getting head and multiple of 3, then
C = {H3, H6}
E 3) When two coins are tossed simultaneously then sample space is
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
(i) Let A be the event of getting at least one head, then
3
A = {HH, HT, TH} and P (A) =
4
(ii) Let B be the event of getting both head and tail, then
2 1
B = {HT, TH} and P (B) = =
4 2
(iii) Let C be the event of getting at most one head, then
3
C = {TT, TH, HT} and P(C) =
4
E 4) When 3 dice are thrown, then the sample space is
S = {(1, 1, 1), (1, 1, 2), (1, 1, 3), … , (1, 1, 6),
(1, 2, 1), (1, 2, 2), (1, 2, 3), … , (1, 2, 6),
(1, 3, 1), (1, 3, 2), (1, 3, 3), … , (1, 3, 6),
.
.
.
(6, 6, 1), (6, 6, 2), (6, 6, 3), …, (6, 6, 6)}

29
Basic Concerpts in
Probility
Number of elements in the sample space = 6  6  6  216
 We have to fill up 3 positions (.,.,.) and each position can be 
 filled with 6 options, this can be donein 6×6×6 = 216 ways 
 

(i) Let A be the event of getting triplet i.e. same number on each die.
 A  (1,1,1), (2, 2, 2), (3,3, 3),(4, 4, 4), (5,5,5), (6, 6, 6)

6 1
and hence P(A) = =
216 36
(ii) Let B be the event of getting sum 5
 B  (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1), (1, 2, 2), (2,1, 2), (2, 2,1)

6 1
and P (B) = =
216 36
(iii) Let C be the event of getting sum at least17 i.e. sum 17 or 18
 C  (5, 6, 6), (6,5, 6), 6, 6, 5), (6, 6, 6)

4 1
and hence P (C) = =
216 54
(iv) Let D be the event of getting prime number on first die and odd prime
number on second and third dice.
i.e. first die can show 2 or 3 or 5 and second, third dice can show 3 or 5
 D  {(2,3,3), (2,3,5),(2,5,3), (2, 5,5), (3,3,3), (3,3,5),
(3,5, 3), (3,5,5), (5,3,3), (5, 3,5), (5,5,3), (5, 5,5)}
12 1
and hence P (D) = =
216 18
365 2
E5) We know that there are 366 days in a leap year. i.e. = 52 weeks
7 7
i.e one leap year = (52 complete weeks + two over days).
These two over days may be

(i) Sunday and Monday

(ii) Monday and Tuesday
(iii) Tuesday and Wednesday
(iv) Wednesday and Thursday
(v) Thursday and Friday
(vi) Friday and Saturday
30
(vii) Saturday and Sunday
 27

 Number of exhaustive Cases = 7

Let A be the event of getting 53 Mondays
There will be 53 Mondays in a leap year if and only if these two over days
are
“Sunday and Monday” or “Monday and Tuesday”
 Number of favourable cases for event A are 2
Number of favourable cases 2
and P(A) = =
Number of exhaustive cases 7
E6) Here, the odds in favour of speaking the truth are 3 : 2,
 here m = 3, n – m = 2 and hence n = 5.
3
Hence, the probability of speaking the truth =
5
E7) As the odds against Manager X setting the wage dispute with the
workers are 8 : 6, hence odds in favour of settling the dispute are 6 : 8.
6 3
Thus, the probability that the manager settles the dispute = = .
14 7
E8) As the probability that student pass a test = 2/3,
 the number of favourable cases = 2 and the number of exhaustive
cases = 3, and hence the number of cases against passing the test
= 3 – 2 = 1.
Thus, odds against passing the test
= the number cases against the event : the number cases favourable to
the event
=1:2
E 9) (i) Odds in favour of the event A are given as 1 : 4.
We know that if odds in favour of event E are m:n then P(E)
m
=
m+n
1 1 1 4
 In this case P(A)   and P(A) =1  P(A) =1  =
1 4 5 5 5
(ii) Odds against the happening of the event A are given as 7 : 2.
We know that if odds against the happening of an event E are
n
m : n , then P(E) = .
m+n
2 2
 In this case P(A)=  and hence
7+2 9
2 7
P(A)=1  P(A)=1   .
9 9

27
 Different Approaches to
UNIT 2 DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO Probability Theory
PROBABILITY THEORY
Structure
2.1 Introduction
Objectives

2.2 Relative Frequency Approach and Statistical Probability

2.3 Problems Based on Relative Frequency
2.4 Subjective Approach to Probability
2.5 Axiomatic Approach to Probability
2.6 Some Results using Probability Function
2.7 Summary
2.8 Solutions/Answers

2.1 INTRODUCTION
In the previous unit, we have defined the classical probability. There are some
restrictions in order to use it such as the outcomes must be equally likely and
finite. There are many situations where such conditions are not satisfied and
hence classical definition cannot be applied. In such a situation, we need some
other approaches to compute the probabilities.

Thus, in this unit, we will discuss different approaches to evaluate the

probability of a given situation based on past experience or own experience or
based on observed data. Actually classical definition is based on the theoretical
assumptions and in this unit, our approach to evaluate the probability of an
event is different from theoretical assumptions and will put you in a position
to answer those questions related to probability where classical definition does
not work. The unit discusses the relative frequency (statistical or empirical
probability) and the subjective approaches to probability. These approaches,
however, share the same basic axioms which provide us with the unified
approach to probability known as axiomatic approach. So, the axiomatic
approach will also be discussed in the unit.

Objectives
After studying this unit, you should be able to:

 explain the relative frequency approach and statistical(or empirical)

probability;

 discuss subjective approach to probability; and

 discuss axiomatic approach to probability.

29
 Basic Concepts in
Probability 2.2 RELATIVE FREQUENCY APPROACH AND
STATISTICAL PROBABILITY
Classical definition of probability fails if
i) the possible outcomes of the random experiment are not equally likely
or/and
ii) the number of exhaustive cases is infinite.
In such cases, we obtain the probability by observing the data. This approach
to probability is called the relative frequency approach and it defines the
statistical probability. Before defining the statistical probability, let us consider
the following example:
Following table gives a distribution of daily salary of some employees:

Salary per day Below 100 100-150 150-200 200 and above
(In Rs)
Employees 20 40 50 15

If an individual is selected at random from the above group of employees and

we are interested in finding the probability that his/her salary was under Rs.
150, then as the number of employees having salary less than Rs 150 is
20 + 40 = 60 and the total number employees is 20 + 40 + 50 + 15 = 125,
therefore the relative frequency that the employee gets salary less than Rs. 150
is
0 12
= .
125 25
This relative frequency is nothing but the probability that the individual
selected is getting the salary less than Rs. 150.
So, in general, if X is a variable having the values x1, x2, …, xn with
frequencies f1, f2, …, fn, respectively. Then
f1 f2 fn
n
, n
, ..., n

f f
i=1
i
i=1
i f
i=1
i

are the relative frequencies of x1, x2, …, xn respectively and hence the
probabilities of X taking the values x1, x, …, xn respectively.
But, in the above example the probability has been obtained using the similar
concept as that of classical probability.
Now, let us consider a situation where a person is administered a sleeping pill
and we are interested in finding the probability that the pill puts the person to
sleep in 20 minutes. Here, we cannot say that the pill will be equally effective
for all persons and hence we cannot apply classical definition here.
To find the required probability in this case, we should either have the past
data or in the absence of the past data, we have to undertake an experiment
where we administer the pill on a group of persons to check the effect. Let m

30
be the number of persons to whom the pill put to sleep in 20 minutes and n be Different Approaches to
the total number of persons who were administered the pill. Probability Theory

Then, the relative frequency and hence the probability that a particular person
m
will put to sleep in 20 minutes is . But, this measure will serve as
n
probability only if the total number of trials in the experiment is very large.
In the relative frequency approach, as the probability is obtained by repetitive
empirical observations, it is known as statistical or empirical probability.
Statistical (or Empirical) Probability
If an event A (say) happens m times in n trials of an experiment which is
performed repeatedly under essentially homogeneous and identical conditions
(e.g. if we perform an experiment of tossing a coin in a room, then it must be
performed in the same room and all other conditions for tossing the coin
should also be identical and homogeneous in all the tosses), then the
probability of happening A is defined as:
m
P(A) = lim .
n  n

As an illustration, we tossed a coin 200 times and observed the number of

m
heads. After each toss, proportion of heads i.e. was obtained, where m is the
n
number of heads and n is the number of tosses as shown in the following table
(Table 2.1):
Table 2.1: Table Showing Number of Tosses and
Proportion of Heads
n (Number of m (Number of Proportion of Heads
Tosses) Heads) i.e.P(H)=m/n
1 1 1
2 2 1
3 2 0.666667
4 3 0.75
5 4 0.8
6 4 0.666667
7 4 0.571429
8 5 0.625
9 6 0.666667
10 6 0.6
15 10 0.666667
20 12 0.6
25 14 0.56
30 16 0.533333
35 18 0.514286

31
 Basic Concepts in 40 22 0.55
Probability
45 25 0.555556
50 29 0.58
60 33 0.55
70 41 0.585714
80 46 0.575
90 52 0.577778
100 53 0.53
120 66 0.55
140 72 0.514286
160 82 0.5125
180 92 0.511111
200 105 0.525

Then a graph was plotted taking number of tosses (n) on x-axis and
m
proportion of heads   on y-axis as shown in Fig. 2.1.
n

Number of tosses (n)

Fig. 2.1: Proportion of Heads versus Number of Tosses

The Graph reveals that as we go on increasing n,

m 1
tends to
n 2
32
 m 1 Different Approaches to
i.e. lim = Probability Theory
n  n 2
Hence, by the statistical (or empirical) definition of probability, the probability
of getting head is
m 1
lim = .
n  n 2
Statistical probability has the following limitations:
(i) The experimental condition may get altered if it is repeated a large
number of times.
m
(ii) lim may not have a unique value, however large n may be.
n  n

2.3 PROBLEMS BASED ON RELATIVE

FREQUENCY
Example 1: The following data relate to 100 couples

Age of 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60

wife

Age of
Husband
15-25 6 3 0 0 0
25-35 3 16 10 0 0
35-45 0 10 15 7 0
45-55 0 0 7 10 4
55-65 0 0 0 4 5

(i) Find the probability of a couple selected at random has a “age of wife” in
the interval 20-50.
(ii) What is the probability that the age of wife is in the interval 20-40 and
the age of husband is in the interval 35-45 if a couple selected at random?
Solution: (i) Required probability is given by
(3+16 +10 + 0 + 0) + (0 +10 +15 + 7 + 0) + (0 + 0 + 7 +10 + 4)
=
100
82
= =0.82
100
10+15 25
(ii) Required probabilty  = = 0.25
100 100
33
 Basic Concepts in
Probability
Example 2: A class has 15 students whose ages are 14, 17, 15, 21, 19, 20, 16,
18, 20, 17, 14, 17, 16, 19 and 20 years respectively. One student is chosen at
random and the age of the selected student is recorded. What is the probability
that
(i) the age of the selected student is divisible by 3,
(ii) the age of the selected student is more than 16, and
(iii) the selected student is eligible to pole the vote.
Solution:
Age X Frequency f Relative frequency
14 2 2/15
15 1 1/15
16 2 2/15
17 3 3/15
18 1 1/15
19 2 2/15
20 3 3/15
21 1 1/15

(i) The age divisible by 3 is 15 or 18 or 21.

11 1 3 1
 Re quired Pr obability   
15 15 5
(ii) Age more than 16 means, age may be 17, 18, 19, 20, 21
3  1  2  3  1 10 2
 Re quired Pr obability   
15 15 3
(iii) In order to poll the vote, age must be  18 years. Thus, we are to obtain
the probability that the selected student has age 18 or 19 or 20 or 21.
1 2  3 1 7
 Re quired Pr obability  
15 15
Example 3: A tyre manufacturing company kept a record of the distance
covered before a tyre needed to be replaced. The following table shows the
results of 2000 cases.
Distance Less 4001- 100001- 20001- More than
(in km) than 10000 20000 40000 40000
4000
Frequency 20 100 200 1500 180

If a person buys a tyre of this company then find the probability that before the
need of its replacement, it has covered
(i) at least a distance of 4001 km.
34
(ii) at most a distance 20000 km Different Approaches to
Probability Theory
(iii) more than a distance 20000 km
(iv) a distance between 10000 to 40000
Solution: The record is based on 2000 cases,
Exhaustive casesin each case  2000
(i) Out of 2000 cases, the number of cases in which tyre covered at least
4001 km
= 100 + 200 + 1500 + 180 = 1980
1980 198 99
 Re quired Pr obability   
2000 200 100
(ii) Number of cases in which distance covered by tyres of this company is
at most 20000 km = 20 + 100 + 200 = 320
320 32 4
 Re quired Pr obability   
2000 200 25
(iii) Number of cases in which tyres of this company covers a distance
of more than 20000 = 1500 + 180 = 1680
1680 168 21
 Re quired Pr obability   
2000 200 25
(iv) Number of cases in which tyres of this company covered a distance
between 10000 to 40000 = 200 + 1500 = 1700
1700 17
 Re quired Pr obability  
2000 20

Now, you can try the following exercises.

E 1) An insurance company selected 5000 drivers from a city at random in
order to find a relationship between age and accidents. The following
table shows the results related to these 5000 drivers.
Age of driver Accidents in one year
(in years)
Class interval 0 1 2 3 4 or more
18-25 600 260 185 90 70
25-40 900 240 160 85 65
40-50 1000 195 150 70 50
50 and above 500 170 120 60 30

If a driver from the city is selected at random, find the probability of the
following events:
35
 Basic Concepts in
Probability
(i) Age lying between 18-25 and meet 2 accidents
(ii) Age between 25-50 and meet at least 3 accidents
(iii) Age more than 40 years and meet at most one accident
(iv) Having one accident in the year
(v) Having no accident in the year.
E 2) Past experience of 200 consecutive days speaks that weather forecasts
of a station is 120 times correct. A day is selected at random of the
year, find the probability that
(i) weather forecast on this day is correct
(ii) weather forecast on this day is false
E 3) Throw a die 200 times and find the probability of getting the odd
number using statistical definition of probability.

2.4 SUBJECTIVE APPROACH TO PROBABILITY

In this approach, we try to assess the probability from our own experiences.
This approach is applicable in the situations where the events do not occur at
all or occur only once or cannot be performed repeatedly under the same
conditions. Subjective probability is based on one’s judgment, wisdom,
intuition and expertise. It is interpreted as a measure of degree of belief or as
the quantified judgment of a particular individual. For example, a teacher may
express his /her confidence that the probability for a particular student getting
first position in a test is 0.99 and that for a particular student getting failed in
the test is 0.05. It is based on his personal belief.
You may notice here that since the assessment is purely subjective one, it will
vary from person to person, depending on one’s perception of the situation and
past experience. Even when two persons have the same knowledge about the
past, their assessment of probabilities may differ according to their personal
prejudices and biases.

2.5 AXIOMATIC APPROACH TO PROBABILITY

All the approaches i.e. classical approach, relative frequency approach
(Statistical/Empirical probability) and subjective approach share the same
basic axioms. These axioms are fundamental to the probability and provide us
with unified approach to probability i.e. axiomatic approach to probability. It
defines the probability function as follows:
Let S be a sample space for a random experiment and A be an event which is
subset of S, then P(A) is called probability function if it satisfies the following
axioms
(i) P(A) is real and P(A)  0
(ii) P (S) = 1
(iii) If A1 , A 2 , ... is any finite or infinite sequence of disjoint events in S, then

P(A1 or A 2 or ...or A n ) = P(A1 ) + P(A 2 ) +...+ P(A n )

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Now, let us give some results using probability function. But before taking up Different Approaches to
these results, we discuss some statements with their meanings in terms of set Probability Theory
theory. If A and B are two events, then in terms of set theory, we write
i) ‘At least one of the events A or B occurs’ as A  B
ii) ‘Both the events A and B occurs’ as A  B
iii) ‘Neither A nor B occurs’ as A  B
iv) ‘Event A occurs and B does not occur’ as A  B

v) ‘Exactly one of the events A or B occurs’ as (A  B)  (A B )

vi) ‘Not more than one of the events A or B occurs’ as
 A  B   A  B   A  B .
Similarly, you can write the meanings in terms of set theory for such statement
in case of three or more events e.g. in case of three events A, B and C,
happening of at least one of the events is written as A  B  C.

2.6 SOME RESULTS USING PROBABILITY

FUNCTION
1 Prove that probability of the impossible event is zero
Proof: Let S be the sample space and  be the set of impossible event.
 S   S
 P(S  )  P(S)
 P(S)  P()  P(S) [By axiom (iii)]
 1+ P()  1 [By axiom (ii)]
 P()  0
2 Probability of non-happening of an event A i.e. complementary event
A of A is given by P(A) =1 – P(A) S
Proof: If S is the sample space then 

A  A = S [ A and A are mutually disjoint events]     

 P(A  A ) = P(S)  


 P(A)  P(A) = P  S  [Using axiom (iii)]
A A
=1 [Using axiom (ii)]

 P(A)  1  P  A  A B A B
3. Prove that
(i) P(A  B) = P(A) – P(A  B)

(ii) P(A  B) = P(B) – P(A  B) A  B AB A B

AB
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 Basic Concepts in
Probability
Proof
If S is the sample space and A, B  S then

(i) A = (A  B ) (A  B)

 P(A) = P((A  B ) (A  B) )

= P(A  B ) + P(A  B)
[Using axiom (iii) as A  B and A  B are mutually disjoint]

 P(A  B ) = P(A) – P(A  B)

(ii) B = (A  B)  (A  B)

P(B) = P( (A  B)  (A  B))

= P(A  B) + P(A  B)

[Using axiom (iii) as A  B and A  B are mutually disjoint]

 P(A  B) = P(B) – P(A  B)

Example 4: A, B and C are three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events

associated with a random experiment. Find P(A) given that :
3 1
P  B  = P  A  and P  C  = P  B 
4 3
Solution:
As A, B and C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events,
ABC=S
 P(A  B  C) = P(S)
 u sin g axiom (iii) as A, B, C 
 P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1  
are mutually disjoint events 
3 1
 P(A) + P(A) + P  B  =1 
4 3
3 1 3 
 P(A) + P  A  +  P  A   =1 
4 3 4 
 3 1
 1+ +  P  A  =1 
 4 4
 2P(A) =1
1
 P(A) =
2

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Examples 5: If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that sum is Different Approaches to
Probability Theory
a) greater than 9, and
b) neither 10 or 12.
Solution:
a) P[sum > 9] = P[sum = 10 or sum = 11 or sum = 12]
= P[sum =10] + P[sum = 11] + P[sum = 12]
[using axiom (iii)]
3 2 1 6 1
= + + = =
36 36 36 36 6
[for sum = 10, there are three favourable cases (4, 6), (5, 5) and (6, 4).
Similarly for sum =11 and 12, there are two and one favourable cases
respectively.]
Let A denotes the event for sum =10 and B denotes the event for sum = 12,

 
 Re quired probability = P  A  B   P A  B [Using De- Morgan's law

(see Unit 1 of Course MST-001)]

= 1 –P(A  B)
= 1– [P(A) + P(B)] [Using axiom (iii)]
3 1 4 1 8
= 1  +   1  1 =
 36 36  36 9 9
Now, you can try the following exercises.
E4) If A, B and C are any three events, write down the expressions in terms
of set theory:
a) only A occurs
b) A and B occur but C does not
c) A, B and C all the three occur
d) at least two occur
e) exactly two do not occur
f) none occurs
E5) Fourteen balls are serially numbered and placed in a bag. Find the
probability that a ball is drawn bears a number multiple of 3 or 5.

2.7 SUMMARY
Let us summarize the main topics covered in this unit.
1) When classical definition fails, we obtain the probability by observing the
data. This approach to probability is called the relative frequency
approach and it defines the statistical probability. If an event A (say)
happens m times in n trials of an experiment which is performed repeatedly
under essentially homogeneous and identical conditions, then the
(Statistical or Empirical) probability of happening A is defined as
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 Basic Concepts in
Probability m
P(A) = lim .
n  n
2) Subjective probability is based on one’s judgment, wisdom, intuition and
expertise. It is interpreted as a measure of degree of belief or as the
quantified judgment of particular individual.
3) If S be a sample space for a random experiment and A be an event which is
subset of S, then P(A) is called probability function if it satisfies the
following axioms
(i) P(A) is real and P(A)  0
(ii) P (S) = 1
(iii) If A1 , A 2 , … is any finite or infinite sequence of disjoint events in S,
then
P(A1 or A 2or...or A n ) = P(A1 ) + P(A 2 ) +...+ P(A n ) .

This is the axiomatic approach to the probability.

2.8 SOLUTIONS/ANSWERS

E 1) Since the information is based on 5000 drivers,

the number of exhaustive cases is = 5000.
Thus,
185 37
(i) the required probability = =
5000 1000
85 + 65 + 70 +50 270 27
(ii) the required probability = = =
5000 5000 500
1000 +195+ 500 +170 1865 373
(iii) the required probability = = =
5000 5000 1000
260 + 240 +195 +170 865 173
(iv) the required probability = = =
5000 5000 1000
600 +900 +1000 + 500 3000 3
(v) the required probability = = =
500 5000 5

E 2) Since the information is based on the record of 200 days, so the number
of exhaustive cases in each case = 200.
(i) Number of favourable cases for correct forecast = 120
120 12 3
 the required probability = = =
200 20 5

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 (iii) Number of favourable outcomes for incorrect forecast = 200 – 120 Different Approaches to
Probability Theory
= 80
80 2
 the required probability = =
200 5

E 3) First throw a die 200 times and note the outcomes. Then construct a table
for the number of throws and the number of times the odd number turns
up as shown in the following format:

Number of Throws(n) Number of times the odd Proportion (m/n)

number turns up (m)
1
2
3
.
.
.

200

Now, plot the graph taking number of throws (n) on x-axis and the
m
proportion ( ) on y-axis in the manner as shown in Fig. 2.1. Then see to
n
m
which value the proportion ( ) approaches to as n becoming large. This
n
m
limiting value of is the required probability.
n
E 4) a) A  B  C
b) A  B  C
c) A  B  C

d) A  B  C   A  B  C  A  B  C   A  B  C
e) A  B  C   A  B  C  A  B  C
f) A  B  C

E 5) Let A be the event that the drawn ball bears a number multiple of 3 and B
be the event that it bears a number multiple of 5, then
A = {3, 6, 9, 12} and B = {5, 10}

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 Basic Concepts in
Probability 4 2 2 1
 P(A) = = and P(B) = =
14 7 14 7
The required probability = P(A or B)
= P A  + P B

2 1 3
= + =
7 7 7
[Using axiom (iii) as A and B are mutually disjoint]

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