Chapter-8 Estimation
Chapter-8 Estimation
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Estimation
Introduction to Estimation
•Definition: Estimation involves using sample data
to infer properties of a population.
11/26/2024
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Univariate and multivariate analysis are two fundamental concepts in statistics,
each dealing with different numbers of variables:
Univariate Analysis
•Definition: The examination of a single variable.
•Purpose: Summarizes and describes the characteristics of that single variable.
•Examples: Mean, median, mode, standard deviation, range, and distribution of a variable.
•Visualization: Histograms, bar charts, pie charts, and box plots.
•Example Scenario: Analyzing the annual income of a group of people without considering any other
variables.
Multivariate Analysis
•Definition: The examination of more than one variable simultaneously.
•Purpose: Understand the relationships between multiple variables and how they interact with each
other.
•Examples: Multiple regression, factor analysis, MANOVA (Multivariate Analysis of Variance), cluster
analysis.
•Visualization: Scatter plots, heatmaps, 3D plots, and multivariate control charts.
•Example Scenario: Analyzing the relationship between income, education level, and age in
predicting spending behavior.
Key Differences:
•Number of Variables: Univariate involves one variable; multivariate involves two or more variables.
•Complexity: Univariate analysis is simpler, focused on describing data; multivariate analysis is more complex,
focused on understanding relationships and interactions.
•Application: Univariate is often used for descriptive statistics; multivariate is used for modeling and making
predictions.
Understanding these differences is crucial for selecting the right analytical approach based on the data and research
questions at hand. If you need more detailed examples or have a specific context in mind, feel free to ask!
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
ESTIMATION
through sampling.
• The primary goal of a sampling activity is to make an inference about something using
• It is possible to draw valid conclusion about the population parameter from sampling
distributions.
• The problem is to construct a sample quantity that will serve to estimate the unknown
PIE
TYPES OF ESTIMATE
PIE
TYPES OF ESTIMATE
Applications in Business
•Market Research: Estimating customer preferences and market trends.
Z value @ 95 % 1.96
Z value at 99 % 2.58
Based on sample data,95 % of the time population average will lie between these 2 limits.
Estimation
• Any sample statistics that is used to estimate an unknown population parameter is called
an “ESTIMATOR”.
• ‘ẍ’ Sample mean can be an estimator of the population mean ‘µ’
• ‘p1’- sample proportion can be an estimator of the population proportion ‘p”.
TYPES OF ESTIMATES
Point Estimate:
Is a single number that is used to estimate an unknown population parameter, in other
words, the estimate of a population parameter given by a single number is called the point estimate of
the parameter.
For example, if a firm takes a sample of 50 salesman and finds out that the average amount
of time that each salesman spends with his customer is 80 minutes. If this figure is used for an estimate
of all the salesman employed by the firm it is referred to as a point estimate because we are using one
value to obtain the population value.
Point Estimates
▪ A point estimate is a single number. For the population mean
variability
Width of
confidence interval
Statistics in Business
▪ Canadian Grocery Shopping Statistics A study of 1,000 adult Canadians was conducted by
the Environics Research Group in a recent year in behalf of Master Card Worldwide to
ascertain information about Canadian shopping habits. Canadian shopping activities were
divided into two core categories: 1.) the “quick” trip for traditional staples, convenience
items, or snack foods, and 2.) the “stock-up” trip that generally occurs once per week and
is approximately two and a half times longer than a quick trip. As a result, many
interesting statistics were reported. Canadians take a mean of 37 stock-up trips per year,
spending an average of 44 minutes in the store, and they take a mean of 76 quick trips per
year, spending an average of 18 minutes in the store. Forty-six percent of households with
kids usually take them on quick trips as do 51% on stock-up trips. On average, Canadians
spend four times more money on a stock-up trip than on a quick trip. Some other
interesting statistics from this survey include: 23% often buy items that are not on their list
but catch their eye, 28% often go to a store to buy an item that is on sale, 24% often
switch to another checkout lane to get out faster, and 45% often bring their own bag. Since
these statistics are based on a sample of 1,000 shoppers, it is virtually certain that the
statistics given here are point estimates.
Estimation
Interval Estimate
If an estimate of a population parameter is given by 2
distinct numbers between which the population parameter may
be expected to lie then the estimate is called an interval or
confidence interval or confidence limits.
sample to sample
parameters
▪ Confidence Level
population parameter
▪ In the long run, 95% of all the confidence intervals that can
α α
= .025 = .025
2 2
The HR director of a large organisation wanted to know what proportion of all persons who
had ever been interviewed for a job with his organisation has been hired. He was willing to
settle for 95% confidence interval. A random sample of 500 interview records reveal that 76 or
0.152 of the persons in the sample, had been hired.
Data given
p = sample proportion
Z value @ 90 % 1.64
Std error
Z value @ 95 % 1.96
Z value at 99 % 2.58
In order to introduce some incentives for higher balance in savings account a random sample of size 64 savings
account at a banks branch was studied to estimate the average monthly balance in savings bank accounts. The mean
and S.D. of the 64 savings account were found to be Rs.8,500 and Rs.2000 respectively. Find (i) 90% (ii) 95% (iii)
99% confidence interval for the population mean.
The shopping bills of customers of a departmental stores are known to follow normal
distribution with mean Rs.2000 and s.d of the population is Rs.500. One day the first hundred
customers bills are found to have an average of Rs.2,200. Can the first 100 customers be
regarded as a truly representative random sample of the population of all customers.
1.64 Data given
Z value @ 90 %
1.96 µ = pop.mean Rs2000
Z value @ 95 %
1.95
2.58
9964 S.D Rs 500
Z value at 99 %
Z value @ 95 % 1.96
S.D 200 kg
Z value at 99 % 2.58
n = sample size 64
Mean 6200 kg
At 95 % 6200 ± 1.96 * 25 =6249 , 6151
Std error
Conclusion
Most formulas used to compute standard errors are based on the idea that
(1) samples are selected with replacement or that (2) samples are
Luckily this doesn’t tend to be a problem if the sample size is less than 5% of the
However, when the sample size is larger than 5% of the total population it’s best to
Sample size in this example is 100/1,300 = 7.7% of the population, which exceeds
5%.
Apply a finite population correction to our formula for the confidence interval
= [0.4665, 0.6535]
Example
They ensure that statistical tests are appropriately calibrated to the amount of
available data.
▪ Let X1 = 7
▪ Let X2 = 8
▪ What is X3? If the mean of these three values is 8.0,
then X3 must be 9 ,(i.e., X3 is not free to vary)
d.f. = n - 1
Student’s t Distribution
Note: t Z as n increases
Standard
Normal
(t with df = ∞)
t (df = 13)
t-distributions are bell-shaped
and symmetric, but have
‘fatter’ tails than the normal t (df = 5)
0 t
Student’s t Table
Upper Tail Area
Let: n = 3
df .25 .10 .05 df = n - 1 = 2
= .10
1 1.000 3.078 6.314 /2 =.05
=T.INV(0.05,2) 2.92
Confidence Interval for μ
(σ Unknown)
Assumptions
▪ Population standard deviation is unknown
▪ Population is normally distributed
▪ if n> 30 , use large sample- Z distribution
Use Student’s t Distribution ( for small sampling n< 30)
S
X t n -1
Confidence Interval Estimate : n
(where t is the critical value of the t distribution with n-1 d.f. and an
area of α/2 in each tail)
In real world business situations,you would never know the std deviation of the population. In
business situations, population are often too large to examine all the values
Confidence Interval for μ (σ Unknown)
Example
31325121421311
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Proportion, π
p(1− p)
n
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Proportion, π
Upper and lower confidence limits for the population proportion
are calculated with the formula
p(1 − p)
pZ
n
where
▪ Z is the standardized normal value for the level of
confidence desired
▪ p is the sample proportion
▪ n is the sample size
▪ A clothing company produces men’s jeans. The jeans
are made and sold with either a regular cut or a boot
cut. In an effort to estimate the proportion of their
men’s jeans market in Oklahoma City that prefers
boot-cut jeans, the analyst takes a random sample of
212 jeans sales from the company’s two Oklahoma
City retail outlets. Only 34 of the sales were for
boot-cut jeans. Construct a 90% confidence interval
to estimate the proportion of the population in
Oklahoma City who prefer boot-cut jeans.
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Proportion, Example
A random sample of 100 people shows that 25 have opened
IRA’s this year. Form a 95% confidence interval for the true
proportion of the population who have opened IRA’s.
p Z p(1 − p)/n
= 25/100 1.96 .25(.75)/1 00
This can be estimated using sample mean for which determination of sample size is
crucial.
By selecting a sample size lower than the correct size may affect reliability and higher size
will mean more cost and time
The determination of the size of a sample is the most important factor for the purposes of
estimation of the value of the population parameters LIKE POPULATION MEAN &
POPULATION PROPORTION
FOR EXAMPLE, To find the proportion of people supporting a political party in Chennai .
This can be estimated using A sample proportion for which the determination of sample size
is crucial
σ Z σ 2 2
e=Z Now solve
n=
n for n to get 2
e
DETERMINATION OF SAMPLE SIZE – Example 1
A marketing research firm wants to conduct a survey to estimate the average amount
spent on purchasing food, by each person visiting a popular resort .
The people who plan the survey would like to determine the average amount spent by
all people visiting the resort , within $ 100 with 95% confidence .
From the past operation of the resort ,an estimate of the population standard deviation
is $300. what is the minimum required sample size?
Data Given
To determine the Estimating the average amount
Sample size for spent (Population Mean) Difference (error e) $ 100
σ $ 300
2 2
n= = 34.57
DETERMINATION OF SAMPLE SIZE – Example 2
g wants to determine on the basis of sample study the mean time required
A Pathologist
i a certain analysis so that he may be 98% confident that the mean may
to complete
remain with in ±3 days of true mean. As per the available record, the population
variance is 81 days. a) What must be the size of sample for his study? b) How large a
sample would be required if the precision is to be doubled.
To determine the Estimating the average Data Given
Sample size for time (Population Mean) Z at 98% From table 2.33
2 σ Square root of 81 = 9
2
= 48 .8 say 49
2
b) If precision is doubled, (ie ) e= 1.5 days = 196
DETERMINATION OF SAMPLE SIZE- Example 3
Mr. X wants to determine on the basis of sample study. The average time required to
complete a certain job so that he may be 95% confident that the mean may be with in
±2 days of the true mean. The population variance is 64 days.
How large should the sample be for his study.
Data Given
To determine the Estimating the average
Sample size for Z at 95% From table 1.96
time (Population Mean)
σ Square root of 64 = 8
48 .8 say 49
2
Determining Sample Size
Z 2 σ 2 (1.645)2 (45)2
n= 2
= 2
= 219.19
e 5
the true σ
standard deviation, S
Determining Sample Size
To determine the required sample size for the proportion, you must
know:
▪ The desired level of confidence (1 - ), which determines
the critical Z value
▪ The acceptable sampling error (margin of error), e
▪ The true proportion of “successes”, π
▪ π can be estimated with a pilot sample, if necessary (or
conservatively use π = .50)
(1 − ) Now solve Z (1 − )
2
Solution:
For 95% confidence, use Z = 1.96
e = .03
p = .12, so use this to estimate π
The company wants to know the proportion p, to be within 0.1 with 99% confidence . Current
company records indicate that the proportion p may be around 0.35.
q = 1- 0.35 = 0.65
DETERMINATION OF SAMPLE SIZE
A company believes that it holds about 30% share of colour TV market in a city. The
company wishes to get a precise estimate of its share with in a margin of error 2%.
N=
a) How large a no. of household should be surveyed to get the desired estimate with a
confidence of 95%?
b) If the cost of contacting a household is Rs.20 what will be the total cost of the
survey?
c) If the budget for the survey is limited to Rs.10,000 what accuracy can be obtained by
a survey with in the budget?
Data Given
e = 0.040
EXERCISE
➢ If the difference to be detected increases, what happens to the required sample size?
Sample size decreases when error (e) (denominator)increases
➢ If the standard deviation increases, what happens to the required sample size?
Sample size increases when σ (numerator) increases.
➢ If the power of the test( bad lot is rejected) required increases, what happens to the required
sample size?
When power(1-β) increases consumer risk decreases therefore sample size increases
➢ If the alpha error decreases, what happens to the required sample size?
When α decreases confidence level (1- α) increases therefore sample size increases
n=
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