Springer Transactions in Civil

and Environmental Engineering

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13593
Rajib Maity

Statistical Methods
in Hydrology
and Hydroclimatology

123
Rajib Maity
Department of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
Kharagpur
India

Additional material to this book can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com.

ISSN 2363-7633 ISSN 2363-7641 (electronic)

Springer Transactions in Civil and Environmental Engineering
ISBN 978-981-10-8778-3 ISBN 978-981-10-8779-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8779-0
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018934932

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
part of Springer Nature
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721,
Singapore
Dedicated to my
Parents
and my wife
Mitali
Preface

In the areas of hydrology and hydroclimatology, usage of different statistical

methods is inevitable due to inherent uncertainty. Hydrology and climatology are
two areas of science that involve studies related to hydrologic and climatic
systems/subsystems, respectively. In connection with the climate change and its
impacts on water resource engineering, hydrologic and hydroclimatic problems are
now being addressed hand in hand. Random variability of hydrologic variables has
a long history since its recognition, and several statistical techniques are currently in
use. Further, the correspondence between climatic variability and hydrologic
variability has produced a relatively new interdisciplinary field, known as hydro-
climatology. It provides a platform to analyze the relationship between climatic
factors and hydrologic variables over space and time. Spatio-temporal evolution of
such relationship is essential in the context of climate change. Several statistical
methodologies are currently being developed and introduced in this subject area to
tackle new emerging challenges.
This book focuses on a wide range of statistical methods ranging from funda-
mental concepts to advanced theories that are found to be potential and essential to
deal with the real-life problems in the fields of hydrology and hydroclimatology.
Besides other advanced theories, the book also introduces the theory of copulas and
its applications in a chapter with many illustrative examples and MATLAB-based
small codes to deal with the problems and solutions in hydrology and
hydroclimatology.
Part of the book is intended to serve as a textbook for graduate courses on
stochastic methods in hydrology and related disciplines. The book may also be a
valuable resource for researchers, professionals, and doctorate students in the areas
of hydrology, hydroclimatology, and related fields. This book is broadly organized
as follows: Chapter 1 provides a basic introduction on the subject area and role of
statistical methods in it. Chapters 2 and 3 are introductory in nature and present a
thorough discussion on the basic concepts of random experiment, random variables,
and some basic exploratory statistical properties. Chapter 4 provides mathematical
and conceptual foundations of commonly used probability distributions in the
domains of hydrology and hydroclimatology. Chapter 5 deals with frequency

vii
viii Preface

analysis, risk, and uncertainty in hydroclimatic analysis. Hypothesis testing and

nonparametric tests are discussed in Chap. 6. Regression analysis and multivariate
analysis including ANOVA and wavelet analysis are covered in Chaps. 7 and 8,
respectively. Chapter 9 presents the concepts of hydroclimatic time series analysis
and forecasting including stationarity, homogeneity, periodicity. Chapter 10 por-
trays the potential of copula theory in hydrology and hydroclimatology. Copulas
help to develop the joint distribution between multiple associated hydroclimatic
variables. Its potential in frequency analysis, multivariate modeling, simulation, and
prediction is discussed for hydroclimatic problems.

Kharagpur, India Rajib Maity

Acknowledgements

There are many individuals who directly or indirectly contributed to this book. It
starts with many professors and academicians in India and abroad with whom I
interacted through various collaborations.
I would also like to acknowledge the support offered by many research students.
Specifically, help from Ph.D. students—Mayank Suman and Subharthi Sarkar—
and MS student Riya Dutta is highly appreciated and acknowledged. Technical help
from Mayank is also acknowledged. Support from Subbarao Pichuka, A Naren and
indirect support from Manali Pal and Subhasmita Dash are also acknowledged.
Finally, it is my wife Mitali, a friend, philosopher, and guide, who is always with
me in all my ups and downs. To state the least, I must mention her dedication,
sacrifice, and love without which everything is meaningless.

ix
Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Definitions and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Role of Statistical Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2.1 Hydrologic and Hydroclimatic Variability . . . . . . . . 2
1.2.2 Need of Statistical Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 Organization of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2 Basic Concepts of Probability and Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.1 Concepts of Random Experiments and Random Variables . . . . 7
2.1.1 Random Experiments, Sample Space, and Events . . . 7
2.1.2 Concept of Random Variables and Events . . . . . . . . 8
2.2 Basic Concepts of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2.1 The Axioms of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2.2 Some Elementary Properties on Probability . . . . . . . 12
2.3 Conditional Probability Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.4 Total Probability Theorem and Bayes’ Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.5 Univariate and Bivariate Probability Distribution
of Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.5.1 Discrete Random Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.5.2 Continuous Random Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.6 Marginal and Conditional Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.6.1 Marginal Probability Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.6.2 Conditional Distribution Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.7 Independence between Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.8 Functions of Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.8.1 Univariate Random Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.8.2 Bivariate Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2.9 MATLAB Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

xi
xii Contents

3 Basic Statistical Properties of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

3.1 Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.1.1 Measures of Central Tendency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
3.1.2 Measure of Dispersion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.1.3 Measure of Symmetry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
3.1.4 Measure of Tailedness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.2 Concept of Moments and Expectation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.2.1 Expectation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.3 Moment-Generating Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.4 Characteristic Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.5 Statistical Properties of Jointly Distributed Random
Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
3.5.1 Expectation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
3.5.2 Moment about the Origin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
3.5.3 Moment about the Mean (Central Moment) . . . . . . . 75
3.5.4 Moment-Generating Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
3.5.5 Covariance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
3.5.6 Correlation Coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.5.7 Further Properties of Moments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.6 Properties of the Estimator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
3.6.1 Unbiasedness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
3.6.2 Consistency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
3.6.3 Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
3.6.4 Sufficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
3.7 Parameter Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.7.1 Method of Moments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
3.7.2 Maximum Likelihood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
3.8 Chebyshev Inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.9 Law of Large Number . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.10 MATLAB Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
4 Probability Distributions and Their Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.1 Discrete Probability Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.1.1 Binomial Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.1.2 Negative Binomial Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4.1.3 Multinomial Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.1.4 Hypergeometric Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
4.1.5 Geometric Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
4.1.6 Poisson Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
4.2 Continuous Probability Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
4.2.1 Uniform Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
4.2.2 Exponential Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Contents xiii

4.2.3 Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

4.2.4 Lognormal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
4.2.5 Gamma Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
4.2.6 Extreme Value Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
4.2.7 Beta Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
4.2.8 Pearson and Log-Pearson Type III Distribution . . . . 130
4.3 Mixed Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
4.4 Some Important Distributions of Sample Statistics . . . . . . . . . 132
4.4.1 Chi-Square Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
4.4.2 The t-Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
4.4.3 The F Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
4.5 MATLAB Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
5 Frequency Analysis, Risk, and Uncertainty in Hydroclimatic
Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
5.1 Concept of Return Period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
5.2 Probability Plotting and Plotting Positions Formulae . . . . . . . . 149
5.3 Probability Paper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
5.3.1 Mathematical Construction of Probability Paper . . . . 153
5.3.2 Graphical Construction of Probability Paper . . . . . . . 155
5.4 Frequency Analyses of Hydroclimatic Extremes . . . . . . . . . . . 158
5.4.1 Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
5.4.2 Lognormal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
5.4.3 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
5.4.4 Extreme Value Type I Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
5.5 Risk and Reliability in Hydrologic Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
5.6 Concept of Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
5.6.1 Analysis of Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
5.6.2 Measures of Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
5.7 Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability of Hydrologic
Time Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
5.7.1 Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
5.7.2 Resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
5.7.3 Vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
5.8 MATLAB Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
6 Hypothesis Testing and Nonparametric Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
6.1 Populations and Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
6.2 Random Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
6.3 Sampling Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
6.3.1 Sampling Distribution of the Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
6.3.2 Sampling Distribution of the Variance . . . . . . . . . . . 194
xiv Contents

6.4 Statistical Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

6.4.1 Point Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
6.4.2 Interval Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
6.4.3 Hypothesis Testing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
6.4.4 Goodness-of-Fit Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
6.4.5 Nonparametric Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
6.5 MATLAB Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
7 Regression Analysis and Curve Fitting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
7.1 Simple Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
7.2 Curvilinear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
7.2.1 Model Transformable to Linear Regression . . . . . . . 237
7.2.2 Model Not Transformable to Linear Regression . . . . 240
7.3 Multiple Linear Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
7.4 Evaluation of Regression Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
7.5 Correlation and Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
7.6 Correlation and Causality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
7.7 Confidence Interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
7.8 MATLAB Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
8 Multivariate Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
8.1 Principal Component Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
8.1.1 Determination of Principal Components . . . . . . . . . . 260
8.2 Supervised Principal Component Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
8.3 Dimensionality Reduction using PCA and SPCA . . . . . . . . . . 267
8.4 Canonical Correlation Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
8.5 Empirical Orthogonal Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
8.6 Data Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
8.6.1 Univariate Data Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
8.6.2 Multivariate Data Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
8.7 Analysis of Variance in Hydrology and Hydroclimatology . . . 280
8.7.1 One-Way Analysis of Variance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
8.7.2 Two-Way Analysis of Variance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
8.7.3 Multiple Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
8.8 MATLAB Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
9 Time Series Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
9.1 Data Representation in Hydroclimatology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
9.2 Stationary and Non-stationary Time Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
9.3 Ensemble and Realization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
Contents xv

9.4 Trend Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308

9.4.1 Tests for Randomness and Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
9.4.2 Trend Removal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
9.5 Analysis of Periodicity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
9.5.1 Harmonic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
9.5.2 Spectral Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
9.6 Data Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
9.6.1 Test for Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
9.7 Time Series Modeling in Hydroclimatology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
9.7.1 Measures of Linear Association in Time Series . . . . 321
9.7.2 Statistical Operators on Time Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
9.7.3 Properties of Time Series Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330
9.7.4 Auto-Regressive (AR) Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
9.7.5 Moving Average (MA) Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
9.7.6 Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA)
Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
9.7.7 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346
9.7.8 Autoregressive Moving Average Model with
Exogenous Inputs (ARMAX) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348
9.7.9 Forecasting with ARMA/ARMAX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350
9.7.10 Parsimony of Time Series Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
9.7.11 Diagnostic Check for ARMA Models . . . . . . . . . . . 357
9.8 Wavelet Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
9.8.1 Haar Wavelet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
9.8.2 Multiresolution Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
9.9 MATLAB Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376
10 Theory of Copula in Hydrology and Hydroclimatology . . . . . . . . . 381
10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381
10.2 Preliminary Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
10.2.1 Definition of Copula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
10.2.2 Graphical Representation of Copula . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
10.3 Sklar’s Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383
10.4 Basic Properties of a Copula Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384
10.4.1 Basic Terminologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384
10.5 Nonparametric Measures of Association . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390
10.6 Copula and Function of Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
10.7 Survival Copula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
10.8 Most Commonly Used Copula Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
10.8.1 Elliptical Copula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
10.8.2 Archimedean Copula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397
xvi Contents

10.9 Selection of Best-Fit Copula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405

10.9.1 Test Using Empirical Copula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405
10.9.2 Test Using Kendall’s Transform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405
10.9.3 Test Using Rosenblatt’s Probability Integral
Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406
10.10 Use of Copulas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
10.10.1 Data Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
10.10.2 Probabilistic Prediction Using Copulas . . . . . . . . . . . 412
10.11 MATLAB Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418
Exercise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424
Appendix A: Data Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425
Appendix B: Statistical Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
About the Author

Dr. Rajib Maity is Associate Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering,

Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India. His research areas include hydro-
climatology, stochastic hydrology, climate impacts on water resources, hydrologic
time series analyses and forecasting. He has published a book on ‘Hydroclimatic
Teleconnection: Indian Perspective,’ several chapters, and over 80 research articles
in various peer-reviewed journals and conferences. His research work has been
funded by various agencies such as the Department of Science and Technology
(DST), Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Ministry of Earth Sciences
(MoES), Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD), Australia-India
Strategic Research Fund (AISRF), and IBM. Some of his professional awards/honors
include Humboldt Fellowship (experienced category) from Alexander von Humboldt
Foundation (Germany), James Rennell MoES Young Fellowship (MoES), the Prof.
R. J. Garde Research Award, ASCE 2011 Outstanding Reviewer (USA), Emerging
Leaders Fellowship (Australia), BOYSCAST Fellowship (India/USA), IEI Young
Engineers Award, DAAD Fellowship for IIT faculty (Germany), International ICE
WaRM Fellowship (Australia), and Prof. N. S. Govinda Rao Memorial Gold Medal,
IISc. He is also currently serving as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Earth
System Science (JESS), Springer, and ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Taylor
and Francis.

xvii