Ce401 Lecture Note 3.
Ce401 Lecture Note 3.
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• Planning:
• “what” is going to be done,
• “how”,
• “where”,
• by “whom”, and
• “when”
for effective monitoring and control of complex projects
“ ”
by J. Hinze, Construction Planning and Scheduling
• Scheduling:
• “what” will be done, and “who” will be working
• relative timing of tasks & time frames
“
”
by J. Hinze, Construction Planning and Scheduling
To construct a 5-unit
warehouse for light industry
Complex
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PERT
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique
• Developed by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile project
• Developed to handle uncertain activity times
CPM
• Critical Path Method
• Developed by Du Pont & Remington Rand
• Developed for industrial projects for which activity times generally were
known
Today’s project management software packages have combined
the best features of both approaches.
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PERT and CPM have been used to plan, schedule, and control a
wide variety of projects:
• R&D of new products and processes
• Construction of buildings and highways
• Maintenance of large and complex equipment
• Design and installation of new systems
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PERT/CPM is used to plan the scheduling of individual activities
that make up a project.
Projects may have as many as several thousand activities.
A complicating factor in carrying out the activities is that some
activities depend on the completion of other activities before they
can be started.
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Project managers rely on PERT/CPM to help them answer questions
such as:
• What is the total time to complete the project?
• What are the scheduled start and finish dates for each specific activity?
• Which activities are critical and must be completed exactly as scheduled to
keep the project on schedule?
• How long can noncritical activities be delayed before they cause an increase in
the project completion time?
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A project network can be constructed to model the precedence of
the activities.
The nodes of the network represent the activities.
The arcs of the network reflect the precedence relationships of the
activities.
A critical path for the network is a path consisting of activities with
zero slack.
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Frank’s Fine Floats is in the business of building elaborate
parade floats. Frank and his crew have a new float to build and
want to use PERT/CPM to help them manage the project .
The table on the next slide shows the activities that comprise
the project. Each activity’s estimated completion time (in days)
and immediate predecessors are listed as well.
Frank wants to know the total time to complete the project,
which activities are critical, and the earliest and latest start and
finish dates for each activity.
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Immediate Completion
Activity Description Predecessors Time (days)
A Initial Paperwork --- 3
B Build Body A 3
C Build Frame A 2
D Finish Body B 3
E Finish Frame C 7
F Final Paperwork B,C 3
G Mount Body to Frame D,E 6
H Install Skirt on Frame C 2
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Project Network
B D
3 3 G
6
F
3
A
Start Finish
3 E
7
C H
2 2
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Earliest Start and Finish Times
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Earliest Start and Finish Times
B 3 6 D 6 9
3 3 G 12 18
6 9 6
F
0 3 3
A
Start Finish
3 E 5 12
3 5 7 5 7
C H
2 2
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Latest Start and Finish Times
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Latest Start and Finish Times
B 3 6 D 6 9
3 6 9 3 9 12 12 18
G
6 9 6 12 18
F
0 3 3 15 18
A
Start 0 3 Finish
3 E 5 12
7 5 12
C 3 5 H 5 7
2 3 5 2 16 18
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Step 3: Calculate the slack time for each activity by:
Slack = (Latest Start) - (Earliest Start), or
= (Latest Finish) - (Earliest Finish).
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Activity Slack Time
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
A 0 3 0 3 0 (crit.)
B 3 6 6 9 3
C 3 5 3 5 0 (crit.)
D 6 9 9 12 3
E 5 12 5 12 0 (crit.)
F 6 9 15 18 9
G 12 18 12 18 0 (crit.)
H 5 7 16 18 11
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Determining the Critical Path
• A critical path is a path of activities, from the Start node to the Finish node,
with 0 slack times.
• The project completion time equals the maximum of the activities’ earliest
finish times.
• Project Completion Time: 18 days
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Critical Path
B 3 6 D 6 9
3 6 9 3 9 12 12 18
G
6 9 6 12 18
F
0 3 3 15 18
A
Start 0 3 Finish
3 E 5 12
7 5 12
C 3 5 H 5 7
2 3 5 2 16 18
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In the three-time estimate approach, the time to complete an
activity is assumed to follow a Beta distribution.
An activity’s mean completion time is:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
An activity’s completion time variance is:
2 = ((b-a)/6)2
• a = the optimistic completion time estimate
• b = the pessimistic completion time estimate
• m = the most likely completion time estimate
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In the three-time estimate approach, the critical path is
determined as if the mean times for the activities were fixed
times.
The overall project completion time is assumed to have a normal
distribution with mean equal to the sum of the means along the
critical path and variance equal to the sum of the variances along
the critical path.
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Example: ABC Associates
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Example: ABC Associates
Project Network
5 3
6
6 1
5
3 4
5
4 2
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Activity Expected Times and Variances
t = (a + 4m + b)/6 2 = ((b-a)/6)2
Activity Expected Time Variance
A 6 4/9
B 4 4/9
C 3 0
D 5 1/9
E 1 1/36
F 4 1/9
G 2 4/9
H 6 1/9
I 5 1
J 3 1/9
K 5 4/9
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Earliest/Latest Times and Slack
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
A 0 6 0 6 0*
B 0 4 5 9 5
C 6 9 6 9 0*
D 6 11 15 20 9
E 6 7 12 13 6
F 9 13 9 13 0*
G 9 11 16 18 7
H 13 19 14 20 1
I 13 18 13 18 0*
J 19 22 20 23 1
K 18 23 18 23 0*
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Determining the Critical Path
• A critical path is a path of activities, from the Start node to the Finish node,
with 0 slack times.
• The project completion time equals the maximum of the activities’ earliest
finish times.
• Project Completion Time: 23 hours
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Critical Path (A-C-F-I-K)
6 11 19 22
5 15 20 3 20 23
13 19
0 6 6 7 6 14 20
6 0 6 1 12 13
13 18
6 9 9 13 5 13 18
3 6 9 4 9 13
18 23
0 4 9 11 5 18 23
4 5 9 2 16 18
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Probability the project will be completed within 24 hrs
2 = 2A + 2C + 2F + 2H + 2K
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
=2
= 1.414
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PERT/Cost is a technique for monitoring costs during a project.
Work packages (groups of related activities) with estimated
budgets and completion times are evaluated.
A cost status report may be calculated by determining the cost
overrun or underrun for each work package.
Cost overrun or underrun is calculated by subtracting the
budgeted cost from the actual cost of the work package.
For work in progress, overrun or underrun may be determined by
subtracting the prorated budget cost from the actual cost to date.
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The overall project cost overrun or underrun at a particular time
during a project is determined by summing the individual cost
overruns and underruns to date of the work packages.
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Consider the following project network:
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Earliest/Latest Times
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
A 0 9 0 9 0*
B 0 8 5 13 5
C 0 10 7 17 7
D 8 11 22 25 14
E 8 12 13 17 5
F 9 13 13 17 4
G 9 12 9 12 0*
H 12 17 12 17 0*
I 12 16 21 25 9
J 17 25 17 25 0*
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Activity Status (End of Week 11)
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Cost Status Report
(Assuming a budgeted cost of $6000 for each activity)
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PERT Diagram at End of Week 11
Earliest Start
Earliest Finish
Remaining
work (weeks)
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Corrective Action
Note that the project is currently experiencing a $900 cost
underrun, but the overall completion time is now 25.5 weeks or a
.5 week delay. Management should consider using some of the
$900 cost savings and apply it to activity G to assist in a more rapid
completion of this activity (and hence the entire project).
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In the Critical Path Method (CPM) approach to project scheduling,
it is assumed that the normal time to complete an activity, tj ,
which can be met at a normal cost, cj , can be crashed to a reduced
time, tj’, under maximum crashing for an increased cost, cj’.
Using CPM, activity j's maximum time reduction, Mj , may be
calculated by: Mj = tj - tj'. It is assumed that its cost per unit
reduction, Kj , is linear and can be calculated by: Kj = (cj' - cj)/Mj.
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