Report 64: The Fundamentals of Shopper Behaviour

Svetlana Bogomolova, Katherine Anderson, Rachel Kennedy, Bill Page, Anne Sharp and Herb Sorensen July 2013

in-store, retailers’ transaction records, and shopping trips in supermarket B, a store, were for five or fewer products
ABSTRACT in-person observations to describe three moderately sized US supermarket (see median results in Table 1).
In this report we discuss three fundamental patterns of shopper behaviour robust and generalizable patterns of (3,000m2), were for five products or
These results confirm that shoppers use
that every marketing manager should know about. Analyses of 654,000 shopper behaviour. These patterns were fewer. Fifty percent of shopping trips at
stores as a “communal pantry” (Sorensen
consistent across: hypermarket B, a massive 15,000m2
shopping trips in US, UK, Australian and Chinese stores over the last decade
show that these patterns are ‘law-like’ - the same in supermarkets, large 1. Large and small supermarkets in the
UK, USA, and Australia. The Table 1: Number of products2 purchased per trip
hypermarkets, small convenience and speciality stores.
supermarkets studied stocked between
KEY FINDINGS N Shopping trips Mode Median Mean
30,000 and 50,000 grocery products.
• Many shoppers buy just a few products – one is the most commonly Store A (US supermarket) 2,779 1 5 10
2. Massive hypermarkets in the USA and
purchased number of products on a shopping trip. China stocking 150,000+ product lines Store B 2,743 1 5 9

• Most shopping trips are short – two thirds of all shopping trips, and a third across a wide range of grocery and Store C 2,612 1 5 8
of all supermarket trips are completed in less than 10 minutes. non-grocery categories, e.g. Walmart, ...
Fred Meyer, Carrefour etc. Store H 2,723 1 4 7
• Most shoppers cover less than a quarter of the store on a trip.
3. Smaller convenience-size stores in Store K 2,853 1 3 5
• These empirical patterns were remarkably similar across the range of
Australia retailing a limited range of
countries, retail formats, store sizes and time periods studied. Average US supermarkets 1 4 7
health, beauty, pharmacy and
convenience products. Store B (AU Supermarket) 6,609 1 6 12

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF SHOPPER STUDYING SHOPPER BEHAVIOUR Store C 84,791 1 7 12

4. Speciality stores ranging in size and
BEHAVIOUR retailing a limited range of product Store D 86,719 1 6 11
Data about the behaviours of shoppers
can be collected using a range of categories – in this case alcoholic and Average AU supermarkets 1 6 12
Given the complexity of the retail
non-alcoholic beverages.
landscape, generalisable knowledge methods; from simple observations by Store A (US hypermarket) 2,866 1 5 9
provides much needed benchmarks for researchers to automated tracking of Fact 1: Many shoppers buy only a Store B 2,665 1 5 8
retailer and manufacturer decision shoppers in-store through mobile phones few products on a trip: one is the
making. Just as architects must work with or radio-frequency tags1. Average US hypermarkets 1 5 8
most commonly purchased
the laws of physics, marketers and Store A (China hypermarket) 377,658 1 5 7
We draw together data from 654,000 number of items on a trip.
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retailers should design their stores and shopping trips collected using a range of Average all Super & Hyper 1 5 8
tailor their interventions to work with In any store, the most common number
methods including electronic tracking of
these real-world shopping patterns, of products purchased on a shopping trip Average 42 outlets 1 5 9
shopping carts and mobile devices
rather than against them. (mode) is one. This surprising result was
2
Multiple purchases of the same product or SKU were recorded as one purchase, as navigation patterns and time
1
consistent across markets, different store
Contact the Institute to discuss the latest in-store are unlikely to be affected by multiple purchases of the same unit. Such multi-unit transactions
formats, and stores vastly different in represented 1 to 13 percent of purchases.
approaches. retail@marketingscience.info
size. For example, 50 percent of The 42-outlet average includes convenience and specialty stores.

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 Report 64: The Fundamentals Of Shopper Behaviour

2009b) and make quick trips to buy small The retailer transaction data typically has The “big head” and “long tail” trips were completed in 10 minutes or the supermarkets, but trips were not even
baskets of items as they need them - a a large ‘head’ of shoppers who purchase a less. Table 2 summarises the differences twice as long. Combined with the first
of shopping trips - most
just-in-time approach to shopping small number of products (i.e. six or across store types. Trips of less than 20 generalization that many shoppers
shopping trips are for a few
(Scamell-Katz 2012). fewer) and a long ‘tail’ of shoppers who minutes were the norm for supermarkets purchase just a few items, this suggests
items and just a few are for
purchase a cart or basket-full of products. while trips of less than five minutes were that many shoppers shop large format
many items.
The majority of baskets The data in Figure 1 is truncated to 60 the norm for smaller convenience drug stores as though they were smaller
are ‘small’ – typically products, but in reality extends beyond and speciality liquor stores. convenience or grocery stores even
120 purchases for a few shoppers/trips. Fact 2: Many shopping trips are though the larger floor space forces them
less than 9 items. Trips in larger store formats were typically
quick: Two-thirds of all shopping to spend longer.
In convenience drug and speciality liquor longer – the median hypermarket shopper
trips are completed in less than 10
Across the 42 retail outlets analysed, the stores, the number of items per trip was spent 38 minutes in-store. However, a Interestingly, shopping trips in the
smaller - on average just one or two minutes. substantial proportion of hypermarket Chinese hypermarket tended to be longer
average number of products purchased
on a shopping trip was nine. However, items. One was the most commonly Marketers and retailers managers often trips (29 percent) were still shorter than than in the US hypermarkets – 47 minutes
because of the skewed distribution of the purchased number of items in the smaller overestimate the amount of time 20 minutes. Moreover, differences in trip on average compared to 37. More work is
data (see Figure 1), the average masks format stores and the same ‘big head, shoppers spend in-store. length were not directly proportional to needed to understand cross-country
the key insight of the mode, the most long tail’ pattern was evident. store size. The hypermarkets studied differences in shopper behaviours.
Across the four retail formats and 86,700
frequent value. were four times larger on average than
shopping trips studied, 59 percent of all

Figure 1: Distribution of basket sizes – US, UK3, Chinese and Australian super and hypermarkets (n=18) Figure 2: Distribution of trip length – US, UK, Aus supermarkets (n = 17)

Mode = 1
30 9

25 8 Median = 18mins
Median = 5
Proportion of shoppers

20 6

Proportion of shoppers
Mean average = 8 Mean = 22mins
15
5

10
4

5
3
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0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 60 1
Number of items
0
3
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93
In one store, only shoppers with trolleys were tracked, resulting in a small number of shoppers purchasing only a few
items. That the data continues to fit the pattern so well is a testament to the robustness of these findings. Trip time (mins)

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 Report 64: The Fundamentals Of Shopper Behaviour

Table 2: Trip length in minutes shoppers tend to assume they behave extend this finding to new retail contexts SUMMARY & IMPLICATIONS
this way. In exit interviews, 25 percent of and demonstrate how it relates to the
Median Mean % 10 % 20 For Retailers
m2 shoppers claimed to shop the whole store square meters visited on a shopping trip,
mins mins mins < mins <
(i.e. go up and down every aisle) a more robust measure. For an average Retailers compete for shopping trips. The
Store A (US supermarket) 7,263 18 21 17 58 (Scamell-Katz 2012). supermarket of 4,000m2 (43,000ft2), half more shoppers who believe the store is a
Store B 3,729 16 19 26 61 of all shoppers visit just 600m2 and few convenient, attractive way of getting
Across the 42 grocery stores, hypermarkets,
visit more than 1000m2, suggesting an what they want, the more shopping trips
Store C 4,105 18 22 21 56 drug stores and speciality liquor stores
upper limit on how far shoppers are the store wins. Most shopping trips are
Store D 3,252 25 18 28 67 studied, shoppers typically visited 25
willing to walk on a shopping trip. for only a few items, so stores need to
percent or less of the store on a trip (see
… … … … … … cater for shoppers making these quick
Table 3 for summary metrics). Whilst this
Store K 2,932 18 21 16 57 The number of square trips. Initiatives that support quick/small
result may be alarming to retailers and
Average US supermarkets 18 20 27 62 marketers, it is not surprising. The meters shopped typically did trips such as shopping baskets, express
not increase relative to store lanes and fast payment solutions should
Store A (AU supermarket) 4,000 15 22 39 60 majority of shoppers are very familiar
with the store layout, and most only want size. The middle 50 percent be prominent. Such changes will improve
Store C 2,500 20 27 29 51 store attractiveness and give shoppers
to purchase a few products, so it makes of shoppers consistently
Store D 2,700 15 21 38 64 sense that the majority of shoppers visit more time (to buy more). Similarly, items
covered between 300 to
that tend to be bought together should be
Average AU supermarkets 16 22 39 62 just a proportion of the store. 900m2 of the store.
located close to one another.
Average All supermarkets 18 22 28 58 Although the supermarkets ranged in size
from 2000m2 to 7000m2, the number of
Average all hypermarkets 36 40 7 29 square meters shoppers typically covered Figure 3: Area of store covered on a single shopping trip (US supermarkets, n=11)
Average convenience 4 6 85 97 showed little deviation, regardless of
store size, shown in Figure 5. 2800
Average specialty 2 4 94 99
On average, half of all shoppers reached
Average 42 outlets 12 14 59 78 2400
only 600m2 (approximately 6500ft2) of
the store; and less than a quarter
The same “big-head, long tail” pattern a limited amount of time in store and a covered more than 1000m2. Only a few 2000

m² of store visited
was evident in trip-length data (Figure 2). few spend a long time. The data in Figure ‘outliers’ visited more than 1000m2 of the
On any given day, many shoppers spend 2 was trimmed at 100 minutes, although store. In larger supermarkets and 1600
some trips extended beyond even this! hypermarkets the “whiskers” or error bars
of Figure 3 extended further while the 1200
Across store formats, the Fact 3: Shoppers visit only a small
middle “box” showing 50 percent of
majority of trips are quick. proportion of the store on any
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shoppers was similar. 800

A substantial proportion of single trip.
That shoppers typically visit a small
hypermarket customers shop Some retailers and marketers assume 400
proportion of the store on a shopping trip
as though they were in a that shoppers methodically work their builds on earlier observations by Sorensen
smaller retail outlet, way up and down each aisle, only 0
(2003) that shoppers visit about a quarter
spending a limited amount 2100 2400 2900 3200 3300 3700 3900 4000 4100 4200 7200
heading for the checkout once they have of a supermarket on an average trip. We
of time in store. acquired all the items they desire. Even Store size ( m² )

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 Report 64: The Fundamentals Of Shopper Behaviour

Table 3: Summary trip metrics (42 stores) helping shoppers recognise and find Keng, Kau Ah & Andrew S C Ehrenberg (1984).
brands quickly on shelf by providing visual "Patterns of store choice". Journal of Marketing
Stores Shopping Basket size Time Visited cues, such as images or colours (see Research, 21 (November), 399-409.
Trips (‘000s) Products Mins % store
Scamell-Katz 2012). Just as retailers Kennedy, Rachel & Andrew Ehrenberg (2001).
N N Mode Median Median Mean should keep stock location static, so too "Competing Retailers Generally Have the Same
should brand managers undertake Sorts of Shoppers". Journal of Marketing
Supermarkets 1 6 20 32 Communications, 7 (1), 19-26.
minimal changes to packaging, unless it
US 11 32 1 4 18 30 is to improve visibility and recognition of Larson, Jeffrey S, Eric T Bradlow & Peter S Fader
Aust 5 245 1 6 16 34 the brand, to keep it easy for existing (2005). "An exploratory look at supermarket
UK⁺ 1 18 2 9 26+ - customers to find the brand/SKU. shopping paths". International Journal of
Research in Marketing, 22, 395-414.
Hypermarkets 1 5 32 12 Store coverage patterns can also be used
to identify locations for secondary Scamell-Katz, Siemon (2012). The Art of
US 2 6 1 5 32 12
Shopping: How We Shop and Why We Buy, UK,
China 1 338 1 5 43 - displays in-store to ensure that every
LID Publishing.
shopper has the opportunity to see and
Convenience Aust. drug 9 1 1 1 6 26
shop the category even if they visit just a Sorensen, Herb (2003). "The science of
Speciality Aust. Liquor* 13 3 1 1 3 15 small proportion of the store. shopping". Marketing Research, 15, 30-35.
Av. all retail formats 42 654 1 3 15 21 These findings also have implications for Sorensen, Herb (2009a). "The in-store
* Total items rather than different products. ⁺ Only cart shoppers. the design of shopper research. Research audience". Journal of Advertising Research, 49
(2), 176-179.
methods and sample frames such as
Given the heterogeneity of consumers Above all, retailers need to work with, loyalty card data that may exclude quick Sorensen, Herb (2009b). Inside the Mind of the
and their shopping trips, we see that rather than against these patterns of trip/small basket shoppers cannot provide Shopper, New Jersey, Pearson Education Inc.
customers are given the unenviable task shopper behaviour. Given the intensity of a complete view of shopper behaviour. Sorensen, Herb & Jacob Suher (2010). "The
of locating the very few items they want competition among retailers, those who Equally, methods that rely on shopper Power of Atlas: Why In-Store Shopping
among the thousands on display. Stores, understand these patterns and adapt their recall are likely to be biased. Behavior Matters". Journal of Advertising
therefore, should be easy to navigate, and practices will have a competitive edge in Research, 50 (1), 21-29.
Research into the fundamentals of
easy to shop quickly. Making product attracting customers.
shopper behaviour is continuing at the
categories easier to find and shop through
For Brand Managers Ehrenberg-Bass Institute. To suggest new
the use of ‘signpost brands’ may help
There is a clear need to make it easier for research sites, contribute data or discuss
shoppers make the most of their limited
the findings, contact
time in-store. Secondary displays of top shoppers looking for your product
category and brand to find them fast. To retail@marketingscience.info
selling items may also play a strategic role
in helping shoppers to get the bulk of their this end, it may be worthwhile
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shopping done as quickly as possible. conducting market research to find out

REFERENCE LIST
where customers expect to find the
The reliance of shoppers on mental maps
product, and what cues they use to Kahn, B. E. & D. C. Schmittlein (1989).
(as opposed to physical signage) of the "Shopping trip behavior: an empirical
navigate towards it.
stores they regularly shop means that investigation". Marketing Letters, 1 (1), 55-69.
changes to store layouts should not be The prevalence of short shopping trips
undertaken lightly. suggests that the emphasis should be on