DOD Mentoring Resource Portal

CRITICAL THINKING AND PROBLEM

SOLVING LESSON
Information for Supervisors Portfolio
April 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LESSON: CRITICAL THINKING ........................................................................................................................... 3
OBJECTIVES .......................................................................................................................................................... 3
REASONING TERMS ............................................................................................................................................. 3
INDUCTIVE AND DEDUCTIVE REASONING ...................................................................................................... 4
CREATIVE THINKING .......................................................................................................................................... 5
PROBLEM SOLUTION GENERATION METHODS .............................................................................................. 6
STRATEGIES FOR DELIVERING SOLUTIONS .....................................................................................................7
LESSON SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................10
LESSON: PROBLEM SOLVING ............................................................................................................................ 11
OBJECTIVES ......................................................................................................................................................... 11
PROCESS-BASED APPROACH TO PROBLEM SOLVING ................................................................................... 11
QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE STANDARDS .......................................................................................... 13

Source: DCPAS New Supervisor Course

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PROBLEMS, SYMPTOMS, AND SOLUTIONS ..................................................................................................... 14

PROBLEM ANALYSIS – COLLECTING AND ASSESSING DATA ....................................................................... 14
SOLUTION GENERATION AND EVALUATION .................................................................................................18
GENERATING SOLUTIONS .................................................................................................................................18
EVALUATING SOLUTIONS .................................................................................................................................. 19
SELECTING HITS ................................................................................................................................................ 20
SORTING OPTIONS ............................................................................................................................................. 20
DECISION MAKING AND RISK .......................................................................................................................... 20
RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS .......................................................................................................................... 21
RISK ASSESSMENTS ........................................................................................................................................... 22
THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS: WHO DECIDES? .................................................................................... 23
CONSENSUS DECISION MAKING ..................................................................................................................... 24
A CONSENSUS DECISION MAKING PROCESS ................................................................................................. 25
LESSON SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................ 27

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LESSON: CRITICAL THINKING

“Philosophy ought to question the basic assumptions of the age. Thinking through, critically and
carefully, what most of us take for granted is, I believe, the chief task of philosophy, and the task that
makes philosophy a worthwhile activity.”-Peter Singer
Mission success depends on thoughtful employees capable of reason and logic.
This lesson discusses inductive and deductive reasoning, creative thinking, and effective presentation of
written and oral arguments.

OBJECTIVES
After completing this lesson, you should be able to:
 Define critical thinking terminology and concepts.
 Discuss the distinctions between inductive and deductive reasoning
 Describe the use of inductive and deductive reasoning
 Describe how to effectively present both written and oral arguments
 Describe the use of critical thinking to solve problems and generate solutions

REASONING TERMS
Key reasoning terms include:
 Problem  Decision
 Opportunity  Data assessment
 Symptom  Risk
 Quantitative standards  Risk assessment
 Qualitative standards  Risk management

Problem
A problem is a discrepancy between existing conditions and the desired or expected conditions, as
determined by a deviation from a specified standard.
Opportunity
An opportunity is a favorable set of circumstances for making improvements or innovations.
Symptom
A symptom is a circumstance or clue indicating the existence of something else, alerting you to a
potential problem.
Standard
A standard is a basis for comparison; a reference point or benchmark against which performance or
achievement can be measured. Standards can either be quantitative or qualitative. These will be
discussed later in more detail.
Decision
A decision is a commitment to act or a selection from among alternatives, in order to achieve a defined
goal.

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Once all data has been collected, and the problem, potential causes, and potential solutions have been
identified, it’s now time to make a decision.
While some decisions are best made by a single, well-informed individual, some decisions are best
made by a group, depending on who will be affected by the decision and who can contribute effectively
to the decision making process. Decisions should be made by individuals with the authority to see that
they are carried out. Often, employees will be asked to be part of the solution, to make
recommendations, but are not the ones to actually make the decisions. The decision-making process
will be discussed later.
Data Assessment
Analytical thinking, and later, decision making is only as good as the data collected, or used to assess
the problem, draw conclusions, and make decisions. Issues concerning the collection and use of data
usually cover the following three major areas:
 Data sources: Concerned with the recency, quality, relevancy, and source of information gathered.
 Adequacy: Concerned with whether there is enough data on which to draw conclusions and make
decisions.
 Completeness: Concerned with the need to collect additional data when current data is incomplete.
Risk, Risk Assessment and Risk Management
Risk is defined as the possibility of loss or injury. A problem, on the other hand, is defined as a
discrepancy between existing conditions and the desired or expected conditions, as determined by a
deviation from a specified standard. The difference between a risk and a problem is a function of time -
a problem is already present or so close to occurring that there are no real risk management options
available. However, if an analyst takes steps to manage a risk, the risk can be minimized or even
eliminated. Risk management will be discussed more in-depth in the next lesson.

INDUCTIVE AND DEDUCTIVE REASONING

Inductive Reasoning
Inductive reasoning is defined as arriving at a conclusion based on a set of observations. In simpler
terms, inductive reasoning means forming an opinion, making a decision, or reaching some kind of
conclusion based solely on information participants have seen, heard, or experienced in the past.
Example:
For example, owning several gas guzzling pickup trucks might lead a person to conclude that pickup
trucks are gas guzzlers. If that person sees an ad for a new model of pickup truck, his/her inductive
reasoning may lead to the opinion that this new truck is also a gas guzzler.
An important consideration is that inductive reasoning is most reliable when there is a great range of
information or experience on which to base a conclusion.
Deductive Reasoning
Deductive reasoning is defined as arriving at a conclusion based on previously known facts. In simpler
terms, deductive reasoning means forming an opinion, making a decision, or reaching some kind of
conclusion based on information that is known to be true, such as rules, laws, or principles.

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Example:
If a movie theater has a pricing policy as shown here, and an adult wants to see a movie that starts at
8:10 p.m., he/she knows that ticket will cost $7.50. Once deducing or determining the price of
admission, the moviegoer can then make additional decisions, e.g.,
 Whether or not to offer to pay
 How many people to invite to attend the movie
 Whether or not to take the kids, or take them on another day
 Whether to bring own treats to movie

TICKETS CHILDREN ADULTS

(UNDER 12)
Matinee $4.00 $5.50
(Before 5:00 pm)
Evenings $6.00 $7.50

CREATIVE THINKING
Creative thinking includes:
 Looking for new combinations and connections
 Developing ‘what if’ scenarios
 Considering approaches never thought of before
 Encouraging the flow of new ideas

Obstacles to Creative Thinking

Analysts may encounter a number of both external and internal obstacles when trying to come up with
creative strategies and resolve problems
Table 5-1: Internal and External Obstacles

OBSTACLES

External Internal

 Lack of time  Fear of criticism

 Conflicting goals  Lack of confidence
 Tension
 Environment
 Short turnarounds

Overcoming Obstacles
Breaking down a problem into smaller components, as practiced so far in this course, will help improve
one’s creative thinking skills. Creativity is a skill that can be learned and developed. Creative thinking
allows analysts to think “outside the box.”

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PROBLEM SOLUTION GENERATION METHODS

There are several methods to generate creative ideas including:
 Brainstorming
 Free Association
 Assumption Smashing
 Mind Mapping
Brainstorming
Brainstorming is a group creativity technique which is useful for generating ideas. It is usually led by a
facilitator. In brainstorming, the analyst begins with a problem definition and writes down as many
ideas as come to mind.
The following are basic guidelines for brainstorming.
 “Crazy” ideas are welcome; they help generate more ideas.
 Don’t worry if you get stuck – just keep moving.
 It is good to “piggy-back” on others’ ideas.
 Do not clarify or discuss ideas; write down every idea.
 Do not judge any ideas and accept every idea, no matter how absurd you may think it is.
 Treat all ideas equally, no matter what the participant’s status is or based on any other organizational
factors.
 Ensure that every participant contributes.
Free Association
Free association is a technique that often helps clear writer’s block. It is amazing how many ideas just
one word can generate. To perform free association, take any word and put it in the center of the page.
From this central point, expand thoughts outward like the branches on a tree or spokes on a wheel. At
the top of each new branch, place a word associated with the center word. Then add branches to that
new word. Simply by performing this activity, analysts may generate some ideas not otherwise
identified through the use of a linear approach to problem solving.
Assumption Smashing
Assumption smashing is similar to free association except that those participating list all of the
assumptions associated with a situation or problem, and then explore what happens if the assumptions
are dropped. The point of assumption smashing is that sometimes people take things for granted or
simply as a given. If one allows himself or herself to think outside of those constraining assumptions,
many options not otherwise identified may become possible.
Mind Mapping
Mind mapping takes the free association technique one step further. The difference is that not all the
connections are strictly linear. Where appropriate, find ways to link together related branches, using
connecting lines or overlapping circles. Mind mapping is conducted by following the four steps below:
Step 1: Place topic or subject in center of empty page.
Step 2: Place main themes on the page and connect them with lines to the center topic.

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Step 3: Ensure that minor themes radiate out from main themes.
Step 4: Make sure all branches are connected somehow to the main center of the tree.

STRATEGIES FOR DELIVERING SOLUTIONS

The discussion of critical thinking is not complete without exploring strategies to share conclusions.
The person delivering the message must:
 Identify the purposes for communicating,
 Analyze target audiences, and
 Develop their messages.
Once these tasks have been accomplished, the next step taken by the communicator is to deliver their
messages using a variety of strategies.
The four key strategies for delivering messages are:
 Verbally (oral arguments)
 Non-verbally
 Visually (various forms of written arguments)
 Blend of strategies
Competent communicators recognize that these four strategies for delivering messages are rarely used
alone. However, for the purposes of learning, we will examine and practice each strategy individually,
and then combine the strategies to learn how they work together.
Strategy 1: Verbal
Delivering messages verbally is the oldest form of communication, and several techniques have stood
the test of time. When delivering a message verbally or by “oral argument”, competent communicators
know they are most likely to get their meaning across if they speak:
 Clearly,
 Concisely
 Courteously
 With conviction
Table 5-2 provides examples of verbal strategies.
Table 5-2: Verbal Strategy Examples

VERBAL GOOD BETTER BEST

STRATEGY

Clarity Over the next couple of We need to track what We need to keep our costs
days, I want to find out this project is costing in line with our budget.
how much this project is and where we are on
going to cost and how meeting our project
long it will take to timeline.
complete.

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VERBAL GOOD BETTER BEST

STRATEGY
(CONTINUED)

Conciseness I’ve worked on enough This project is going to be We need to keep our costs
projects over the years to difficult but we need to in line with our budget.
know that no matter how make sure we don’t go over
much we have in our on our budget.
budget, it’s easy to go over.

Courtesy I’ll think about it. Thanks for speaking up. I appreciate you letting me
know your views.

Conviction I’m pretty sure we can come I think we might make our We will finish this project
close to meeting our deadline and possibly stay on time and on budget.
deadline and to keeping within our budget.
within our budget.

Audiences are more apt to listen – and believe – when they can hear and understand words spoken
respectfully and sincerely.
Strategy 2: Non-Verbal
Another strategy for delivering messages involves non-verbal techniques. While these techniques often
accompany verbal delivery methods, competent communicators recognize the value non-verbal
strategies bring to message delivery. Non-verbal strategies include:
 Eye contact  Tone  Presence  Position
 Gestures  Attitude  Space  Setting

Communicators rely in part on non-verbal behavior to deliver their messages. These behaviors – eye
contact, gestures, tone, attitude and presence – help communicators engage their audiences by gaining
and keeping audience attention. Many people use the behavioral and environmental elements of non-
verbal strategies to help their audiences feel more at ease and better able to receive messages. Table 5-3
provides examples of non-verbal communication and the reactions audiences have to this type of
communication.
Table 5-3: Non-Verbal Strategies – Behavior

BEHAVIOR EXAMPLES AUDIENCE MEMBERS

Eye contact Scanning of audience members …feel seen and appreciated
Gestures Pointing at graphics, “Follow Me” …know where to look
motions …feel invited
Tone Emphatic, pleased, urgent, angry, open, …infer expected responses
quizzical, patient
Attitude Confident, certain …trust communicators
Presence Expert, problem solver, decision maker …are apt to listen to – and believe –
communicators

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BEHAVIOR EXAMPLES AUDIENCE MEMBERS

Space Respectful distance from audience …can relax and feel safe, not
threatened
Position Standing to give presentation or …can pace themselves in terms of
instruction; sitting to participate in attention and responsiveness to
discussion message
Setting Appropriate to message: Board …can take cues about appropriate
meetings in conference rooms; team response to the delivery of the
meetings in work space message

Strategy 3: Visual

A third strategy for delivering messages focuses on the implementation of visual techniques, including
written communications. In today’s organizations, communicators use a combination of ‘old-fashioned’
and cutting edge visual aids, or tools, to deliver content, construct format, and accommodate for varying
circumstances. Tools for delivering messages using visual strategies can be divided into two categories:
 Manual – Constructed by hand
 Digital – Involving a computer
Communicators rely on both types of visual strategies to strengthen the delivery of messages. Table 5-4
associates the outlines the features of messages to be delivered in terms of manual and digital tools.
Table 5-4: Visual Strategies

FEATURES MANUAL TOOLS DIGITAL TOOLS

Format Paper Computers & Projectors

Print-outs ‘Smart’ Boards
White Boards Web/Podcasts
Circumstances Less Formal More Formal
Impromptu Events Scheduled Events
Content Notes Slide shows/Graphics
Outlines Charts & Graphs
Sketches Real-time data
Feedback

While visual tools can be complex enough to deliver messages without using verbal or non-verbal
strategies, people most often use visual strategies in conjunction with the other strategies.
Strategy 4: Blended
In today's organizations, technology is a fundamental component of communication. Drawing from the
human and the technical elements of verbal, non-verbal and visual strategies, communicators construct
a blended strategy that utilizes those techniques that will ensure the successful delivery of messages.
Table 5-5 provides a matrix linking delivery strategies – verbal, non-verbal, and visual – to
communication scenarios with various communicators, messages, and audiences.

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Table 5-5: Blended Strategies – Verbal, Non-Verbal & Visuals

COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS

Format of Conversation Meeting Presentation

Communication
Communicator Employee Team Lead Manager / Team Lead
Audience Co-worker Team Management
Message If we finish the project Due to budgetary Our research shows that
on time, we will exceed constraints, our team will two of the three projects
our goal by 20%. taking on the following have produced
additional responsibilities. measurably positive
results.

Verbal Conciseness Clarity Clarity

Conviction Courtesy Conciseness
Non- Eye Contact Eye Contact Presence Eye Contact
Strategies

verbal Tone Position Gestures

Attitude Setting Tone
Space Presence
Visual Schedules Reports Computer / LCD
Budgets Org charts Charts/Graphs
Graphs White boards Data Reports

Effective communicators recognize the power of the blended strategy for message delivery.

LESSON SUMMARY
The topics discussed in this lesson include:
 Critical thinking terminology and concepts.
 The distinctions between inductive and deductive reasoning
 The use of inductive and deductive reasoning
 How to effectively present both written and oral arguments
 The use of critical thinking to solve problems and generate solutions

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LESSON: PROBLEM SOLVING

“If I had an hour to solve a problem and my life depended on the solution, I would spend the first 55
minutes determining the proper question to ask; for once I knew the proper question, I could solve the
problem in less than five minutes.”-Albert Einstein
Problems are opportunities, but only for the agency whose employees are effective problem-solves.
This lesson discusses the steps involved in a process-based approach to problem solving, quantitative
and qualitative standards for defining problems, risk assessment, and decision making.

OBJECTIVES
After completing this lesson, participants will be able to:
 Utilize the process-based approach for problem solving
 Identify methods used for generating creative and logical solutions
 Discuss the impact of risk in a decision-making environment
 Discuss strategies for empowering employees to be problem solvers

PROCESS-BASED APPROACH TO PROBLEM SOLVING

A problem results from a discrepancy between actual results and those results that are expected or
desired. A process-based approach has proven to be a highly effective means of solving a problem.
The method begins with analyzing the problem:
Step 1: Recognize a Problem Exists
Step 2: Collect Data
Step 3: Analyze and Evaluate
Step 4: Select a Probable Cause
Step 5: Verify the Cause
The quality and validity of each step is dependent on the preceding steps. Avoid taking shortcuts. The
time spent defining and analyzing the problem will save invaluable time in the long run, since the
individual making the decision will have the criteria needed to make an effective decision.
Step 1: Recognize a Problem Exists
There are many ways to recognize that a problem exists. Some of these methods are formal, while
others are informal, including:
 Listening to coworkers ("water cooler chat" or "the office grapevine")
 Meetings
 Formal complaint processes
Step 2: Collect Data
Recall from its definition that a problem requires a discrepancy between reality and the desired or
expected conditions and associated standards. The purpose of collecting data is to learn everything

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about the problem, especially to help in identifying its cause. Avoid analyzing the data as it is collected.
Rather, define what is happening in terms of:
 What
 Who
 Where
 When
 How often
 How many
Step 3: Analyze and Evaluate
Always do a thorough job of explaining the collected data. Don’t cut corners. While time is always a
critical factor, it will pay off in the long run to have as much data as possible when beginning to
generate solutions and make decisions.
Step 4: Select a Probable Cause
It is important to have a well-formulated, concise problem description. Then, a comparison can be
made between specific points of the problem description or symptoms (i.e., who, what, where, when,
how often, and how many) with potential causes. The most probable cause is the one that matches the
most elements of the problem description. It is also helpful to break down the possible causes by
category as identified below, especially to see if there are any special categories that are causing you the
most difficulty:
 People  Location
 Organization  Process
 Procedures  Distribution channels
 Machines or equipment  Leadership
 Materials  Other

Step 5: Verify the Cause

Once a probable cause has been selected, the analyst should then verify that they have identified the
correct cause, especially:
 If there are uncertainties about the validity of the assumptions.
 If the corrective action being considered has a high cost in terms of money, time, and/or personnel.
 If the problem has a serious impact on the entire organization.
Then, the cause should be verified by:
 Conducting interviews, particularly if the probable cause included personnel.
 Observing, particularly if the probable cause is a procedure.
 Experimenting, particularly if the probable cause is a machine or material.
If the verification reveals the analyst has not identified the true probable cause or that there may be
additional causes, he or she should return to step two in the process (collect data) and start again.

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QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE STANDARDS

Quantitative and qualitative standards are a critical part of the problem identification framework. In
order to identify a problem – a gap between expectations and results – there must be references against
which expectations and results are measured.
Quantitative Standards
A quantitative, or objective, standard is unbiased, is based on facts, and is not influenced by personal
feelings, interpretations, or prejudice.
Quantitative standards used to measure desired results include:
 95% of applications will be processed within ten days.
 90% of customers will be satisfied or highly satisfied with customer service.
Qualitative Standards
A qualitative, or subjective, standard is based on attitudes, opinions, and experiences, and describes an
individual’s perceptions of characteristics.
Qualitative standards used to measure expected conditions (desired results) include:
 Reports are formatted according to agency style guide.
 Products reflect sound analytical thinking.
Table 6-1 offers a comparison between quantitative and qualitative standards.

QUANTITATIVE QUALITATIVE
A quantitative, or objective, standard is: A qualitative, or subjective standard is:
 Unbiased  Biased
 Based on facts  Based on attitudes, opinions, and
 Not influenced by personal feelings, experiences
interpretations, or prejudice.  Describes individuals' perceptions of
characteristics

Table 6-2 provides examples of quantitative and qualitative standards by which existing and expected
conditions may be measured in order to identify problems.

EXAMPLES

Standards Expected Conditions Existing Conditions Problem

(Desired Results) (Actual Results) (Gap)
Quantitative 95 percent of applications 80 percent of applications 15 percent of applications are
will be processed within will be processed within taking longer to process than
ten days. ten days. expected.
90 percent of customers 70 percent of customers 20 percent of customers are not
will be satisfied or highly will be satisfied or highly satisfied with customer service.
satisfied with customer satisfied with customer
service. service.

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Qualitative Reports are formatted Some reports are not Not all reports are formatted to
according to agency style formatted to agency style agency style guide.
guide. guide.
Products reflect sound Some products do not Not all products reflect sound
analytical thinking. reflect sound analytical analytical thinking.
thinking.

PROBLEMS, SYMPTOMS, AND SOLUTIONS

Problem or Solution?
A common error made when identifying a problem is to define a problem in terms of its solution.
Example:
When describing a problem*, one might say, “The problem is that we need a system to track loan
defaults.”

Solution Problem*
Establishing a tracking system Loan defaults are not being tracked
Determining a solution to a problem is a much later step in the process of problem solving.
Problem or Symptom?
Another common error made when identifying a problem is to define a problem in terms of its
symptoms.
Example:
When describing a problem*, one might say, “The problem is that loan defaults are increasing.”
Symptom Problem*
Increasing loan defaults Loan defaults are not being tracked
A symptom is a circumstance or clue indicating the existence of a potential problem. Identifying
symptoms can be helpful in identifying the problem.
Symptoms warn us that something is wrong, and sometimes they are the only indication there is a
problem.
However, defining a problem in terms of its symptoms may obscure the real cause and lead to
symptomatic solutions that fail to correct the basic condition.

PROBLEM ANALYSIS – COLLECTING AND ASSESSING DATA

Recall from its definition that a problem results from a discrepancy between actual results and those
results that are expected or desired.
Once the problem – the gap between desired and actual results – has been identified, it is important to
analyze the problem.
In order to achieve the most accurate analysis, one should:
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1. Collect data about the problem

2. Assess the collected data
It is critical that these two steps should be conducted separately. Avoid analyzing data as it is collected,
because this could influence both the type of information collected and the manner in which that
information is collected.
Collecting Data
In order to effectively analyze a problem, problem solvers must conduct a thorough collection of all
relevant data. In order to achieve this, problem solvers should:
 Ask relevant questions during problem analysis
 Identify existing data sources for each question and gain access to those sources
Ask Relevant Questions
The following questions can help problem solvers identify the parameters of their investigation:
 What?
 Who?
 Where?
 When?
 How often?
 How many?
Identify Data Sources
When collecting information for use in identifying a problem, it is important to recognize:
 Sources of data
 Constraints upon data
When identifying sources of data, it is important to recognize the type of data. As with the standards
used to help identify problems, data can be either:
 Quantitative (objective), or
 Qualitative (subjective)
Quantitative Data
Quantitative data is information that is generally considered unbiased, based on facts, and not
influenced by personal feelings, interpretations, or prejudice
Quantitative data is usually represented numerically
 5% of all applications are received after the closing date.
 At least 100 applications are received after the closing date
Facts
Facts are information which can be quantified and verified, and remain ‘true’ regardless of people and
politics.
Sources of facts include:

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 Research
 Experimentation and studies
 Observed events, past or present, that were either personally observed or reported.1
Qualitative Data
Subjective or qualitative data is data that is based on attitudes, opinions, and experiences.
Subjective or qualitative data describes an individual’s perceptions and is usually represented verbally.
 The tension was so great that you could cut it with a knife.
 No one in that office helps customers.
Stakeholders
Stakeholders are individuals, groups, and organizations that are affected by the problem, or its solution.
Decision makers, elected officials, community leaders, and those close to the problem are very
important to identify.
It is also critical to recognize truth, bias, or prejudice in stakeholder’s opinions.
Triangulation (comparing information from several different sources) will help you minimize bias and
prejudice in stakeholder data.2
Experts
Expert opinion can save both time and work because it is often difficult to get "all the facts."
The downside of expert opinion is that it also may be biased.
Experts often rely on heuristics (rules of thumb) to reach judgments quickly. The following heuristics
are known to cause experts to introduce bias in their responses:
 Availability – Judging the likelihood of an event by how easily examples can be recalled or imagined
 Representativeness – Judging an event by how closely it represents a stereotypical member of a
group
 Anchoring and adjustment – Failing to adjust adequately to a new value when, after picking a
starting value or anchor, new information comes to light.
 Affect – Responding to positive or negative information about the benefit of an activity affects an
individual's perception/inference of the risk. 3
Constraints Upon Data
In addition to identifying sources of data, problem solvers must also recognize the constraints upon
both the data sources and the data itself. Constraints upon data may be difficult, or impossible, to
change.
Possible constraints include:

1 Study Guides and Strategies. 2008. Problem Solving and Decision Making: Defining and Gathering. Retrieved from
http://www.studygs.net/problem/problemsolvingV1.htm
2 Landsberger, J., Problem Solving and Decision Making: Defining and Gathering, 2007. Retrieved from

http://www.studygs.net/problem/problemsolvingV1.htm
3 United States Coast Guard. 2008. Retrieved from http://www.uscg.mil/hq/g-m/risk/e-guidelines/RBDMGuide.htm

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 Technical – Limited equipment or technology

 Political – Special interest restrictions
 Legal – federal, state, or local laws or statutes
 Economic – Cost restrictions
 Social – Restrictions by organized groups with special interests
 Human – Limited ability of relevant people to understand or initiate solutions
 Time – Requirements for a solution in a short period of time4
If a solution is surrounded by too many constraints, the constraints themselves may be the problem.
Assessing Data
Once data has been collected, the next step is to conduct a thorough and critical assessment of those
data. When assessing the quality of data earmarked for use in solving problems, there are several
critical characteristics of the data that must be evaluated. These characteristics include:
 Recency
 Quality
 Completeness
 Relevancy
Recency
Problem solvers must be discerning when collecting data pertaining to an issue they are seeking to
resolve. Data that is out-of-date can skew the problem-solving process and delay or possibly prevent
the implementation of a viable solution.
When Did the Problem Occur?
However, be careful when establishing criteria for aging data. As discussed, there are problems that
have ‘always’ existed, while other problems have only recently occurred. Thus, five-year old data may
not be ‘too old’ for a problem that has been ongoing, while five-week old data may not be recent enough
for a problem which has just occurred.
Quality
Judging the quality of data requires both quantitative and qualitative criteria. Facts, figures, and
historical accounts can be verified, validated, and, in some cases, recreated. Likewise, a subjective
evaluation of the data can result in the exclusion of data with errors or redundancies.
Making a Distinction Between Quality and ‘Good’
Subjectivity can hinder the assessment of data, particularly when problem solvers have an agenda
which delays or prevents finding effective solutions to problems. Data that supports an alternate
agenda may be considered ‘good’, even if it is inaccurate, contains errors, or, in some other way, lacks
quality. Thus, it is critical that problem solvers take care when selecting the standards by which
problems are identified, and distinguishing between problems, and solutions and symptoms.

4 FEMA. 2005. Decision Making and Problem Solving: Independent Study. pp 2.19
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Completeness
When assessing data, problem solvers must determine if all pertinent data has been collected. In order
to ensure the collection is complete, problem solvers should identify the facets of a problem and collect
any related data.
 Logistics – Details /events surrounding problem
 People - Stakeholders, participants, affected parties
 Record – Internal / external accounting of problem
 Related Actions / Reactions – Consequences of the problem and of various responses to the problem
(including no action)
Incomplete Data Leads to Incomplete Solutions
A solution constructed upon incomplete data will solve only part of the problem or – more likely – will
fail to solve the problem at all.
Relevancy
When assessing data pertaining to a problem, it is critical that problem solvers collect only those data
which are relevant. In today’s world of seemingly endless supplies of information, it is easy to collect
too much data. However, information that is irrelevant to a problem can distract problem solvers and
disrupt problem solving efforts.
Similar Problems – and Solutions?
Relevancy of data is similar to recency of data in that it is possible to mistakenly identify some pertinent
data as irrelevant.
Data pertaining to similar problems – particularly those which have been successfully resolved – should
be considered. Additionally, data pertaining to events surrounding the occurrence of problems should
be considered, as they may contain valuable insights both about the origins of the problem as well as
what actions could be taken to avoid the problem in the future.

SOLUTION GENERATION AND EVALUATION

When generating potential solutions to a problem, it is important to separate the ‘creative’ part of the
process from the ‘evaluative’ part of the process. The best solution for a problem may be the one that, at
first glance, seems the most ‘out there’.
Thus, in order to maximize the range of options from which a potential solution may be drawn, it is
critical that evaluation and judgment be set aside during the creative part of the solution generation
process.
Equally important, however, is the need for focus once the options have been generated. It is
unproductive to continue brainstorming once that portion of the process has ended. Sometimes, the
worst solution to a problem is better than the best solution that never leaves the ‘drawing board’.

GENERATING SOLUTIONS
As discussed earlier, there are three different methods to generate creative ideas:
 Brainstorming
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 Free Association
 Assumption Smashing
 Mind Mapping

EVALUATING SOLUTIONS
After generating ideas, they need to be evaluated and sorted through to reach a practical decision of
those you want to use or develop further. Each idea is assessed to determine whether it is promising,
intriguing, or important to consider and develop as a promising solution.
This step is not about generating an absolute, final decision, or attaining closure about solutions to the
problem. The goal of this step is to identify possibilities that are promising, intriguing, or inviting.
Rules for Focusing Options
When focusing options, it is critical that a shift be made from generating ideas to focusing on ideas.
Treffinger et al. offer four guidelines for focusing on ideas:5
1. Look for the Strengths:
 Analyze ideas constructively:
 Screen
 Select
 Support your choices
 Look for strengths or the positive aspects of each option.
 Get the best out of ideas rather than just criticizing them.
2. Be Deliberate and Explicit:
 Choices and decision will be easier if the process is deliberate and methodical
 Options can be communicated, and discussed better when everyone is explicit in expressing choices
and reasons clearly
 Work hard to become aware of, and overcome, hidden agendas
3. Consider both novelty and appropriateness:
 Be sure to consider both novelty and appropriateness of the possibilities.
4. Stay on course:
 Keep focused on the destination.
 Make decisions and correct course as necessary.
 Keep the objective in mind.
Focusing Methods
This provides an overview of two different methods of focusing on the options. These methods include:

5Treffinger, D.J., Isaksen, S.G., & Stead-Dorval, B., Creative Problem Solving: An Introduction, Waco, Texas: Prufrock
Press, 2006, pp. 9-11
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 Selecting Hits
 Sorting Options
Note that this is a small sampling of creative methods used to focus on the options. Refer to almost any
book on problem solving for more.

SELECTING HITS
‘Selecting Hits’ is a focusing tool used to screen a large number or a wide variety of options. To use
‘Selecting Hits’, identify the most promising or appealing options and mark them with a dot or other
mark.
Isaksen, et al. say that an option may be a hit when it is:6
 On target  Intriguing  Clear
 Relevant  Fascinating  Right ‘on the money
 Interesting  Workable
One method of using ‘Selecting Hits’ is to give each team member a number of dots. Each member then
places their dots on the options that they think might be a “hit.”

SORTING OPTIONS
Another option used for focusing options is to sort options into categories. To use ‘Sorting Options’, sort
the entire list of ideas into categories. If there are too many items to sort, use ‘Selecting Hits’ first to
trim the list to a manageable level.
Isaksen et al. offer some suggestions for categories:7
 Musts vs. Wants
 Short Term vs. Long Term
 Useful vs. Novel
 Simple vs. Complex
 Fits Existing System vs. Demands New System
‘Sorting Options’ can also be accomplished using a matrix to evaluating options using two pairs of
categories.

DECISION MAKING AND RISK

Pitfalls of Decisions
When you engage in the decision-making process, there are many obstacles or pitfalls that you may run
into along the way. A few of the pitfalls to good decision making include:

6 Isaksen, S.G., Dorval K.B., & Treffinger D.J., Creative Approaches to Problem Solving: A Framework for Change, Buffalo,
New York: Creative Problem Solving Group, 2000, p. 79
7 Isaksen, S.G., Dorval K.B., & Treffinger D.J., Creative Approaches to Problem Solving: A Framework for Change, Buffalo,

New York: Creative Problem Solving Group, 2000, p. 123

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 Here are a few of the pitfalls in making good decisions:

 Unintended consequences or side effects
 Lack of complete context or sufficient data
 Relocating " the monkey" to someone else's back
 Overly simplistic treatment of multiple issues
 Lack of buy-in from the people who must implement
 Failure to see "outside the box"
 Failure to consider discrete solutions for various elements of the problem
 Defense of a decision for the wrong reasons
 Failure to move fast enough to be effective
 Failure to recognize the political implications of an otherwise good decision. 8

RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS

Risk management is a continuous six-step process.
Step 1 – Identify the risk:
State the risk in terms of condition and consequence(s) – capture the context of the risk, e.g., what,
when, where, how, and why. For example, if a major funding decrease is being proposed for a program,
the analyst must identify and define the risks associated with the decrease. How will this impact
program staffing? When will the funding decrease take effect? What is the impact on the current client
base? What impact will the decrease have on other related programs?
Step 2 – Analyze the risk:
Evaluate the risk probability, impact/severity, and time frame (when action needs to be taken). For
example, if a budget cut next year will result in a nationwide 15% decrease in staff, what is the
probability a specific office will be downsized? By how much? What happened in the last budget cut of
a similar nature?
Step 3 – Develop a Risk Management Plan:
Formalize the data captured in terms of a plan per se; assign responsibility and determine an approach
to address the risk. For example, if a program’s guidelines change as proposed, it may increase a
specific office’s caseload by 20%. What can that office staff do to prepare for that change now? Who is
responsible to do what to address the risks?
Step 4 – Track the risk:
Acquire/update, compile, analyze, and organize risk data. For example, the initiation of a new
electronic performance tracking system is being installed in a regional office next week. The office staff
must develop a tracking system to monitor the installation to determine if the risk control measures are
working.

8Group Mind Express. 2008. Effective Decision Making. Retrieved from

http://www.groupmindexpress.com/lib/Effective%20Decision%20Making.pdf.
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Step 5 – Control/mitigate the risk:

Decide how to proceed. For example, an analyst observes that applicants are failing to complete the
newly revised housing choice voucher forms. The analyst implemented a risk control plan, offering
telephone support to walk applicants through the new form. The analyst observed a 20% increase in the
number of completed forms after only two weeks of offering telephone support. The analyst has
executed a control plan and should continue to track the situation.
Step 6 – Communicate and document the risk:
Report the risk to the task stakeholders for possible input. This report should become a normal and
recurring part of the reporting process. For example, an area office conducts a weekly staff status
meeting. All stakeholders are present. The analyst should request to be put on the agenda to keep the
stakeholders informed of potential risks.

RISK ASSESSMENTS
Analyzing the risk means determining the probability, impact, and timeframe of risk. The probability of
the risk is usually defined in terms of ranges, e.g., 50%, 75%, 100%, or low, medium, high. The
timeframe that the risk will occur is usually defined in terms of when the risk is likely to occur, e.g.,
near-term, long-term, etc. The magnitude of the risk is usually assessed in terms of the impact on cost,
schedule, scope, and quality.
Table 6-3: Ranking Risks

RISK RANK

0.9 (90%) Very High

0.7 (70%) High

0.5 (50%) Moderate

0.3 (30%) Low

0.1 (10%) Very Low

Not all risks are equal – once they are identified, they need to be prioritized so that those that are more
important will be addressed first. It is critical to remember that at any time when risks are identified,
they need to be communicated to agency leaders and decision makers so that they may be effectively
addressed.
Risks can never be fully avoided or transferred, so the analyst must prioritize them to determine where
to expend resources.
Coping with Risk
 Risk avoidance: Refusing to undertake an activity where the risk seems too costly.
 Risk prevention (loss control): Using various methods to reduce the possibility of a loss occurring.
 Risk transfer: Shifting a risk to someone outside your organization.
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 Risk assumption (self-insurance): Setting aside funds to meet losses that are uncertain in size and
frequency.
 Risk reduction: Taking steps to reduce risk; for example: diversification, proactive mitigation,
piloting the proposed solution, and proactive marketing, among others.9

THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS: WHO DECIDES?

Some decisions are best made by a single, well-informed individual, while other decisions are best made
by a group.
The criteria for determining which scenario is most effective for making the best decision include
determining:
 Who will be affected by the decision
 Who can contribute effectively to the decision making process
See table 6-4 for examples of decision making types.
Table 6-4: Types of Decision Making

TYPE OF DECISION DESCRIPTION

MAKING

Individual In individual decision making, the leader must make the decision alone,
and input from others is limited to collecting relevant information.

Consultation In consultation, the leader shares the issue with one or more people—
seeking ideas, opinions, and suggestions—and then makes the decision.
The leader considers the input of others, but makes the final decision.

Delegating When delegating the decision, the leader sets the parameters, and then
allows one or more additional people to make the final decision.
Although the leader does not make the decision, he or she supports it.

Group In group decision making, the leader and others work together until
they reach a consensus decision. The opinion and point of view of each
group member is considered. As a result of helping to make the decision,
group members may be more apt to buy into the final decision and
commit to supporting its implementation. 10

Selecting a Decision Making Approach

Use the following questions to help determine a decision making approach:
 Selecting a Decision Making Approach
 Use the following questions to help determine a decision making approach:
 What is the timeframe of the decision? Is there a reasonable amount of time to make a decision?

9 Arsham, H. 2008. Merrick School of Business. The University of Baltimore. Tools for Decision Analysis: Analysis of
Risky Decisions. Retrieved from http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/opre640a/partIX.htm
10 FEMA. 2005. Decision Making and Problem Solving: Independent Study. pp 3.8

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 What is the level of the decision maker’s expertise? Is the leader skilled and experienced enough to
make a good decision?
 What is the level of expertise of potential group members? Are group members skilled and
experienced enough to make a good decision?
 What is the commitment of others involved to the attainment of organizational goals? Do they share
the objectives to be achieved by solving the problem?
 What are possible reasons others may have for wanting a problem to remain unsolved? For not
using a specific approach?
 What is the complexity of the problem? Is the decision made complex due to complex/compound
problems with many possible complex/compound solutions?
 How critical is commitment by others to the decision?
 What conflicts might arise among those affected by the decision?
 What agencies, individuals, elected officials, or community members are directly impacted by the
decision?11
Examples:
 You have been working on a problem for some time. A decision must be made today. One of your
subordinates is really up on the subject, but you know the correct decision must be made.
Who makes decision: ______________________________
 You feel very strongly that you know the issues best and can reach the best decision. However, there
are different groups involved with the problem who, in your experience, work against decisions they
oppose.
Who makes decision: ______________________________
 You know that the different groups involved have a history of working against decisions they oppose.
However, the decision must be made today.
Who makes decision: ______________________________

CONSENSUS DECISION MAKING

According to L. Steven Smutko, author of Negotiation and Collaborative Problem Solving,12 the
definition most often applied to consensus decision making is that of “conditional unanimity”.
Conditional unanimity is achieved when everyone can live with the decision.
See figure 6-1 for a diagram of a consensus decision making process.

11 FEMA. 2005. Decision Making and Problem Solving: Independent Study. pp 3.9
12 Smutko, L. S. 2007. Negotiation and Collaborative Problem Solving. Raleigh, NC: North Carolina State University
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Figure 6-1: A Consensus Decision Making Process

Proposal
Presented

Questions/ Proposal
Discussion Modified

Test for Concerns Concerns

Consensus Raised Resolved

Proposal Stand Proposal

Passed Aside Blocked

A CONSENSUS DECISION MAKING PROCESS

1. Proposal - The process starts with a proposal. One of the group members presents a proposal for
solution of the problem.
2. Questions/Discussion – Clarifying questions are asked by anyone in the group. The proposal is
discussed and debated. The proposal can be altered at this time.
3. Test for Consensus – The group can use any one of a variety of techniques such as a straw poll or a
signal like thumbs up/middle/down.
 Thumb up – I have no objections and can support the proposal
 Thumb middle – I have concerns with the proposal, but choose not to block it
 Thumb down – I have major concerns with the proposal and block its passage
4. Concerns Raised – Group members must express their concerns.
5. Concerns Resolved – The group has one of three choices:
 Proposal modification – The proposal is modified and resubmitted for questions/discussion
 Proposal passage – Group members voice their concerns, and even if not resolved, choose to stand
aside and let the proposal pass
 Proposal blockage – Group members voice their concerns, and if not resolved, block the proposal
Reaching Consensus
The group has reached consensus when ALL group members can say:

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 “My personal views have been listened to and considered.”

 “I have openly listened to and considered the ideas and views of every other group member.”
 “I can support this decision and work towards its implementation, even if it was not my choice.”13
Tips for Reading Consensus
 Do not employ win/lose techniques such as voting.
 To break a stalemate, look for the next most acceptable alternative.
 Do not encourage members to give in to keep harmony.14
Advantages of Group Decision Making
According to James Higgins, author of 101 Creative Problem Solving Techniques, groups offer distinct
advantages over individual decision making and problem solving:
 The group can usually provide a better solution. Groups can create a knowledge base greater than the
sum of its parts as individuals build on each other’s inputs.
 Those affected by the decision and/or those who must implement it will accept the decision more
readily if they have a say in the decision.
 Group participation leads to better understanding of the decision.
 Groups help ensure broader searches for information and solutions.
 The propensity to take risk is balanced. Groups moderate between the risk taker and risk avoider.15
Disadvantages of Group Decision Making
There are also disadvantages to employing group decision making or problem solving:
 There is pressure to conform. Groups are susceptible to “group think”, which is when people begin to
think alike and not tolerate new ideas.
 One individual may dominate the group so that his/her opinions prevail over the group. Secret
ballots and time constraints may help.
 Groups require more time to reach a decision.
 Excessive time spent reaching a decision may negate the advantages of a good decision.
 Groups may make better decisions than the average individual but seldom better than the superior
individual. Superior by a group may result from the efforts of one group member.16

13 FEMA. 2005. Decision Making and Problem Solving: Independent Study. pp 3.12
14 FEMA. 2005. Decision Making and Problem Solving: Independent Study. pp 3.12
15 Higgins, J.M. 2006. 101 Creative Problem Solving Techniques. Winter Park, FL: New Management Publishing

Company, pp 131
16 Higgins, J.M. 2006. 101 Creative Problem Solving Techniques. Winter Park, FL: New Management Publishing

Company, pp 132
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LESSON SUMMARY
The topics discussed in this lesson include:
 The process-based approach for problem solving
 Methods used for generating creative and logical solutions
 The impact of risk in a decision-making environment
 Strategies for empowering employees to be problem solvers

27 April 2016