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Chapter 20 - PPT (Fall, 2024)

Chapter 20 of Shigley's Mechanical Engineering Design focuses on statistical considerations in mechanical design, highlighting the importance of understanding random variables, probability distributions, and the variability in manufactured products. It covers key statistical concepts such as arithmetic mean, variance, standard deviation, and various probability distributions including Gaussian, lognormal, uniform, and Weibull distributions. Additionally, the chapter discusses error propagation and linear regression techniques for analyzing data.

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17 views29 pages

Chapter 20 - PPT (Fall, 2024)

Chapter 20 of Shigley's Mechanical Engineering Design focuses on statistical considerations in mechanical design, highlighting the importance of understanding random variables, probability distributions, and the variability in manufactured products. It covers key statistical concepts such as arithmetic mean, variance, standard deviation, and various probability distributions including Gaussian, lognormal, uniform, and Weibull distributions. Additionally, the chapter discusses error propagation and linear regression techniques for analyzing data.

Uploaded by

omaruhu822
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Shigley’s Mechanical Engineering Design

9th Edition
Richard G. Budynas and J. Keith Nisbett

Chapter 20
Statistical Considerations

Prepared by
Saleh S. Hayek
Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering
Tabuk University
20 Statistical Considerations

Chapter 20-1 Random Variables


Outline
20-2 Arithmetic Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

20-3 Probability Distributions

20-4 Propagation of Error

20-5 Linear Regression


Introduction
• Statistics in mechanical design provides a method of dealing with
characteristics whose values are variable.
• Products manufactured in large quantities have a life that is variable.
• One automobile may have so many defects that it must be repaired
repeatedly during the first few months of operation while another
may operate satisfactorily for years, requiring only minor
maintenance.
• The variability inherent in limits and fits, in stress and strength, in
bearing clearances, and in a multitude of other characteristics must
be described numerically for proper control.
• Evidence gathered from nature by measurement is a mixture of
systematic and random effects. It is the role of statistics to separate
these, and, through the sensitive use of data, illuminate the obscure.

3
Random Variables
• The strength determined by random
experiment is called a random, or a
stochastic, variable.
• A probability distribution shows all possible
values of a random variable and with the
corresponding probabilities.
• The probability function p = f (x ) , a function
of x, is often called the frequency function or,
sometimes, the probability density function
(PDF).
• A cumulative probability distribution
describes the probability that x is less than or
equal to a certain value xi.

4
Arithmetic Mean, Variance , and
Standard Deviation
• The total number of elements, called the population, may in some
cases be quite large.
• A small part of the group, called a sample is generally selected for
measurement.
• Sample mean :

• Sample variance :

• Sample standard deviation :

or,

7
Gaussian ( Normal ) Distribution
• The Gaussian, or normal, distribution is expressed in
terms of its mean μx and its standard deviation σx as

• The normally distributed variate x can be expressed as

where N represents the normal distribution function given by


Eq. (20–14).
• To avoid the need for many tables for different values of
μ and σ , the deviation from the mean is expressed in
units of standard deviation by the transform

11
Lognormal Distribution
• The lognormal distribution is one in which the logarithms of the
variate have a normal distribution.

• Use the transformation

y has a normal distribution

• The lognormal distribution has the following two characteristics:


✓ The distribution is asymmetrical about the mean.
✓ The variables have only positive values.

15
Uniform Distribution
• The uniform distribution is a closed-interval distribution that arises
when the chance of an observation is the same as the chance for
any other observation.
• The probability density function (PDF) for the uniform distribution is

where a is the lower bound and b is the upper bound.


• The cumulative density function (CDF) is linear in the range
a ≤ x ≤ b given by

• The mean and standard deviation are given by

19
Weibull Distribution
• Most reliability information comes from laboratory and field service
data, and because of its flexibility, the Weibull distribution is widely
used.
• The probability density function, for Weibull, is

where x0 = minimum, guaranteed, value of x


θ = a characteristic or scale value (θ ≥ x0)
b = a shape parameter (b > 0)
• The mean and standard deviation are given by

where Г is the gamma function


• The reliability of a Weibull distribution is

20
Propagation of Error
• Suppose we wish to add
the two variates x and y
to form a third variate z.

• The mean is given as

• The standard deviation

23
Linear Regression
• Statisticians use a process of analysis called regression to obtain a
curve that best fits a set of data points.
• The process is called linear regression when the best-fitting
straight line is to be found.
• The standard equation of a straight line is

• A correlation coefficient r calculates how well x and y correlate


with each other.

26
The End !

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