MANIPAL UNIVERSITY JAIPUR

School of Basic Sciences

Department of Mathematics & Statistics
Course Hand – Out
REGRESSION ANALYSIS & FORCASTING | MA2081 | 3 Credits | 2 1 0 3
Session: July 20 – Nov.20 | Faculty: Dr. Ashish Kumar| Class: Open Elective

A. Introduction:-
Regression analysis is concerned with the statistical and mathematical tools of prediction. It is an important
subject and step in all spheres of data analysis. The course aims at providing the basics of model testing with
emphasis on some commonly statistical techniques like correlation, regression, autocorrelation, etc.

B. Course Outcomes: At the end of the course, students will be able to

2081.1 Interpret and illustrate the concept of bivariate data to find the relation between
variables
2081.2 Describe the conceptual framework of predication for dependent variables
2081.3 Understand conceptual framework of simple linear regression models.
2081.4 Recall conceptual framework of OLS estimation and autocorrelation.
2081.5 Distinguish business strategies by taking account of data analysis techniques for consultancy and employment
ability.

C. PROGRAM OUTCOMES AND PROGRAM SPECIFIC OUTCOMES

[PO1].Critical thinking: Critically interpret data, write reports and apply the basics of evidence.
[PO2].Effective Communication: Communicate effectively by writing, connecting people, ideas, books,
media and technology.
[PO3]. Social Interaction: Elicit views of others, mediate disagreements and help reach conclusions in
group settings.
[PO4]. Effective Citizenship: Demonstrate empathetic social concern and equity centred national
development, and the ability to act with an informed awareness of issues and participate in civic life
through volunteering.
[PO5]. Ethics: Apply ethical principles and commit to professional ethics and responsibilities.
[PO6]. Environment and Sustainability: Understand the issues of environmental contexts and sustainable
development.
[PO7]. Self-directed and Life-long Learning: Acquire the ability to engage in independent and life-long
learning in the broadest context socio technological changes

PSO.1 to understand the basic Mathematical & Statistical principles and to explain them clearly.

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 PSO.2 to apply these principles both in simple exercises and in more complex problems of advanced
Mathematics & Statistics
PSO.3 to develop creative thinking and the power of imagination.
PSO.4 to expose the graduates in research in academia and industry for broader
applications
D. Assessment Plan:-

Criteria Description Maximum Marks

Sessional Exam I (Close Book) 15
Internal Assessment Sessional Exam II (Close Book) 15
(Summative) In class Quizzes and Assignments , 30
Activity feedbacks (Accumulated and
Averaged)
End Term Exam End Term Exam (Closed Book) 40
(Summative)
Total 100
Attendance A minimum of 75% Attendance is required to be maintained by a student to be
(Formative) qualified for taking up the End Semester examination. The allowance of 25%
includes all types of leaves including medical leaves.
Make up Assignments Students who misses a class will have to report to the teacher about the absence.
(Formative) A makeup assignment on the topic taught on the day of absence will be given which
has to be submitted within a week from the date of absence. No extensions will be
given on this. The attendance for that particular day of absence will be marked
blank, so that the student is not accounted for absence. These assignments are
limited to a maximum of 5 throughout the entire semester.
Homework/ Home Assignment/ There are situations where a student may have to work in home, especially before
Activity Assignment a flipped classroom. Although these works are not graded with marks. However, a
(Formative) student is expected to participate and perform these assignments with full zeal
since the activity/ flipped classroom participation by a student will be assessed and
marks will be awarded.

E. SYLLABUS:-
Regression Model: Basic fundamental concept of modelling, simple linear regression, estimation of
parameters, properties, maximum likelihood estimation of parameters, testing of hypothesis, confidence
interval estimation; Multiple Linear Regression Analysis: Introduction, estimation of parameters,
standardized regression coefficients, testing of hypothesis, Goodness of fit model, diagnostics in
multiple linear regression analysis; Forecasting: Forecasting in linear regression models; Problems in
Ordinary Least Squares Estimation: Multicollinearity: Nature, consequences, detection and remedial
measures, Heterosedasticity: Nature, consequences, detection and remedial measures, Autocorrelation:
concept, consequences of autocorrelated disturbances, detection of autocorrelation, their estimation and
testing, estimation using Durbin-Watson statistic.

F. REFERENCE BOOKS:-

1. S.P. Singh, A.K Parashar and H.P. Singh, Econometrics, S. Chand and Company Ltd, New
Delhi, 2000.
2. D.N. Gujarati, Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition (McGraw−Hill), New Delhi, 2004.
3. R. A. Johnson and D. W. Wichern, Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis, Prentice Hall
of India, 2001.
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 4. W. H. Greene, Econometric Analysis, Pearson, 8th ed., 2017.
5. W.F. Griffith, R.H. Hill and G.G. Judge, Learning and Practicing Econometrics, John
Wiley, New York, 1993.
6. J. Johnston, Econometric Methods, McGraw Hill, New York, 4th ed., 1997.
7. J. Johnston, and J.D. Nardo, Econometric Methods, McGraw Hill, New York, 1997.
8. G.S. Maddala, and K Lahiri, Introduction to Econometrics, Wiley, 2009.
G. Lecture Plan:-

Lec No Topics Session Outcome Mode of Corresponding Mode of Assessing

Delivery CO the Outcome
1,2 Bivariate Data: Interpret and Lecture 2081.1 Home Assignment
illustrate the Class Quiz
Scatter diagram, Mid Term 1
concept of bivariate
correlation and End Term
data to find the
their uses relation between
variables
3,4 product moment Interpret and Lecture 2081.1 Home Assignment
illustrate the Class Quiz
correlation Mid Term 1
concept of bivariate
coefficient and rank End Term
data to find the
correlation relation between
variables
5,6 Multiple Interpret and Lecture 2081.1 In Class Quiz
illustrate the Mid Term 1
correlation in case End Term
concept of bivariate
of three variables. data to find the
relation between
variables
7,8,9,10 Partial correlation Interpret and Lecture 2081.1 Home Assignment
illustrate the Mid Term 1
in case of three End Term
concept of bivariate
variables. data to find the
relation between
variables
11 Regression Analysis Describe the Lecture 2081.2 In Class Quiz
conceptual Mid Term 1
framework of End Term
predication for
dependent variables
12,13,14 Introduction: Describe the Lecture 2081.2 Class Quiz
conceptual Mid Term I
Definition and End Term
framework of
scope of predication for
econometrics, dependent variables
methodology of

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 econometric
research.
15,16 Simple Linear Describe the Lecture 2081.2 Class Quiz
Regression Model: conceptual Mid Term 1
Assumptions, framework of End term
estimation (through predication for
OLS method),
dependent variables
desirable properties
of estimators
17,18,19, Gauss- Markov Describe the Lecture 2081.2 Home Assignment
conceptual Class Quiz
20 theorem, Mid Term 1
framework of
End Term
predication for
dependent variables
21,22 interpretation of Understand Lecture 2081.3 Class Quiz
conceptual Mid Term 1I
regression End Term
framework of simple
coefficients, testing linear regression
of regression models.
coefficients, test for
regression as a
whole,
23,24 Coefficient of Understand Lecture 2081.3 Class Quiz
conceptual Mid Term II
determination. End Term
framework of simple
linear regression
models.
25,26,27 Problems in OLS Understand Lecture 2081.3 Class Quiz
conceptual Mid Term II
Estimation: End Term
framework of simple
Problems of linear regression
heterosedasticity. models.
28,29 Autocorrelation: Recall conceptual Lecture 2081.4 Class Quiz
framework of OLS Mid Term II
concept, End Term
estimation and
consequences of autocorrelation.
auto correlated
disturbances
30,31 detection of Recall conceptual Lecture, 2081.4 Class Quiz
autocorrelation, framework of OLS Activity Mid Term II
estimation and End Term
their estimation and autocorrelation.
testing,

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32,33, Estimation using Recall conceptual Lecture, 2081.5 Class Quiz
34,35
Durbin-Watson framework of OLS Activity End Term
estimation and
statistic autocorrelation.
36 Forecasting, Distinguish business Lecture 2081.5 Class Quiz
exponential strategies by taking End Term
smoothing for linear account of data analysis
techniques for
trend model. consultancy and
employment ability.

H. Course Articulation Matrix: (Mapping of COs with POs and PSOs):-

CO STATEMENT CORRELATION WITH PROGRAM OUTCOME CORRELATION WITH

PROGRAM SPECIFIC
OUTCOME
PO PO PO PO PO PO PO PSO PSO PSO PSO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4
2081.1 Understand the concept of
bivariate data to find the 2 2 3
relation between variables
2081.2 Understand conceptual of
predication of dependent 2 3 2
variable.
2081.3 Understand conceptual
framework of simple linear 2 3 1
regression models.
2081.4 Understand conceptual
framework of OLS
3 2 3
estimation and
autocorrelation.
2081.5 Distinguish business strategies by
taking account of data analysis
techniques for consultancy and 2 2 2
employment ability.

1-
1:-Low Correlation; 2:-Moderate Correlation; 3:- Substantial Correlation

I. Course Outcome Attainment Level Matrix:-

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 CO STATEMENT ATTAINMENT OF PROGRAM ATTAINMENT OF
OUTCOMES PROGRAM SPECIFIC
THRESHOLD VALUE: 40% OUTCOMES
PO PO PO PO PO PO PO PS PS PS PS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 O1 O2 O3 O4
2081.1 Understand the concept of
bivariate data to find the
relation between variables
2081.2 Understand conceptual of
predication of dependent
variable.
2081.3 Understand conceptual
framework of simple linear
regression models.
2081.4 Understand conceptual
framework of OLS
estimation and
autocorrelation.
2081.5 Distinguish business strategies by
taking account of data analysis
techniques for consultancy and
employment ability.

0-No Attainment; 1- Low Attainment; 2- Moderate Attainment; 3- Substantial Attainment

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