Us Elections and Impact 1731149386186
Us Elections and Impact 1731149386186
ON INDIA
CONTEXT
The United States presidential election took place on Tuesday,
November 5, 2024 with Trump claiming victory on Nov 6th.
Donald Trump's re-election (45th President 2017 to 2021; 47th
President 2024) sets a new stage for geopolitical dynamics,
particularly impacting trade and international relations. This will be
his 2nd and last tenure.
Q1. What are the key points from Donald Trump's
victory speech?
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Q2. How are PM Modi and President Trump's relations?
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Q.3 How USA’s democracy has evolved?
P.T.O
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Q.4 What is the election process in USA?
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Aspect Indian President US President
Powers Limited executive Significant executive
powers, primarily authority, serving as both
serving a ceremonial head of state and
role with real power in government, leading the
the Prime Minister. executive branch.
Functioning Acts on the advice of Autonomy to make
the Council of executive decisions, appoint
Ministers; decisions officials, and issue
made collectively with executive orders
the Prime Minister. independently.
Election Elected by an Electoral Elected through a direct
Process College of members election system where
from Parliament and citizens vote for electors
State Legislative who then vote for the
Assemblies. president.
Term Serves a term of five Serves a four-year term,
Duration years, eligible for may be re-elected for one
reelection any number additional term (totaling
of times. eight years).
Impeachment Can be impeached for The President can be
violating the impeached for conviction of
Constitution, requiring treason, bribery, or other
a two-thirds majority in high crimes or
both Houses of misdemeanor. Impeachment
Parliament. is initiated by the House of
Representatives, followed
by a Senate trial.
Executive Exercises powers Has the authority to act
Authority mainly on the advice of independently, appoint
the Prime Minister and federal officials, and direct
cabinet, with limited the executive branch
independent authority. without Congress approval.
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Privileges Has certain privileges Enjoys broader privileges,
regarding immunity including executive
from legal proceedings privilege to withhold
for actions in official information from Congress
capacity. and courts.
Immunity Immune from legal Immune from civil suits for
proceedings for official actions taken while in office
actions but can be sued but can face criminal
for personal actions. charges for illegal
activities.
Political Typically affiliated Elected based on party
Affiliation with a political party affiliation, representing a
but expected to act specific political party, and
impartially in office. engages in partisan politics.
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PM Modi visit (2023)
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Economic & Bilateral trade: $146.1 billion (2021).
Trade
US is India's 2nd largest trading partner (Fy 24).
Indian FDI in US: $22 billion (2020).
US FDI in India: $45.9 billion (2020).
Key sectors: IT, pharma, energy, defense, e-
commerce.
Foreign direct investment from India into the United States from
2000 to 2023
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Science & Space cooperation: NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture
Technology Radar (NISAR) mission.
Joint research: US-India Science and Technology
Endowment Fund.
COVID-19 vaccine cooperation: US supported
India's vaccine production.
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Energy US-India Strategic Energy Partnership launched in
2018.
US LNG exports to India growing.
Cooperation in renewable energy, energy efficiency,
and oil & gas.
People-to- Indian diaspora in US: 5.1 million (2024, second-
People largest immigrant group)
Cultural exchanges: Dance, music, arts, and film
collaborations
Tourism: 1.4 million Indians visited the US in 2019
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Number of overseas Indians in the
Number of visitors to the
United States of America (USA) as
United States from India from
of June 2024
2011 to 2022
Defense Defense trade: Over $20 billion since 2007
Major defense acquisitions: P-8I maritime patrol
aircraft, C-17, C-130J, AH-64E Apache, and CH-
47F Chinook helicopters
Defense Technology and Trade Initiative
(DTTI): Co-development and co-production of
defense equipment
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Strategic
Partnerahip
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INDIA-US RELATION IN NUMBERS
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Q.7 What are the challenges in India -USA relations?
Challenge Facts & Data Issues
Trade India is the 9th Former President Trump
Tensions largest trade labeled India a "very big
partner for the abuser" of trade ties and
U.S., with bilateral threatened to impose
trade close to $120 higher tariffs on over $75
billion in FY24, billion worth of Indian
enjoying a trade exports if re-elected.
surplus of $36.74 India has retaliated against
billion. U.S. tariffs on steel and
The U.S. runs aluminum by imposing
a trade deficit of higher tariffs on U.S.
approximately agricultural products.
$29 billion with
India (2021).
India-Russia
bilateral trade
increased by 49.5%
in 2021, reaching
$13.12 billion.
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Data India has issued In 2018, India's central
Localization data localization bank mandated that
rules requiring payments data be stored
certain data to be only in India, raising
stored within the concerns about digital
country. trade barriers.
U.S. tech firms New IT rules have further
argue this raises escalated tensions between
operational costs the two nations.
and disrupts
business.
Human Rights Reports indicate The U.S. has raised
Concerns rising intolerance concerns over India's
against Muslim and Kashmir policy and the
Christian Citizenship Amendment
minorities under Act, which critics argue
the current discriminates against
government. Muslims.
India's ranking in
the Democracy India has rejected these
Index fell from criticisms as interference in
27th in 2014 to its internal affairs.
53rd in 2020.
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Immigration Indian nationals In past Trump's
Issues receive over 70% administration previously
of H-1B skilled restricted H-1B visas,
worker visas issued impacting Indian tech
by the U.S. workers; a return to such
policies could complicate
There is a access for skilled workers
significant green from India.
card backlog for The green card backlog
Indian applicants, remains a pressing issue
with some wait for many Indian nationals
times exceeding a seeking permanent
decade. residency in the U.S.
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Climate India is the world's The U.S. has urged India to
Change third-largest make more ambitious
emitter of climate pledges; India's
greenhouse gases; emphasis on "common
its per capita but differentiated
emissions remain responsibilities" complica
significantly lower tes negotiations on climate
than those of the initiatives.
U.S.
Pannun/ Pannun was While India cooperates
khalistani targeted in a foiled with the U.S. investigation
Extremist Issue assassination plot into Pannun's case, it has
allegedly directed rejected Canada's claims
by an Indian regarding Nijjar's killing
intelligence as unsubstantiated.
official; this
incident has drawn Pannun filed a civil case in
significant media the U.S., seeking
attention since late restitution against senior
2023. Indian officials he alleges
The U.S. Justice are responsible for the
Department assassination attempt.
indicted an Indian
national linked to
this plot.
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He was arrested by the Delhi Police on December 18,
2023, for alleged kidnapping and extortion charges,
and has been in jail since his arrest.
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Despite potential challenges, India's role as a
manufacturing hub could increase due to US firms
seeking alternatives to China.
Immigration Trump's previous restrictions on the H-1B visa
Impact program could be reintroduced, impacting Indian
tech workers and firms reliant on skilled labor.
Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar
noted that negotiations over trade and immigration
may be difficult but emphasized the generally
positive relationship between Trump and Modi.
Inflation and High inflation resulting from trade barriers may
Discretionary disrupt rate cuts and worsen income inequality,
Spending negatively affecting middle-class consumption.
Impact Analysis: Detrimental for middle-class
consumers.
Pharma Pharma exports are likely to be adversely affected
Exports due to high trade barriers and unfavorable policies
towards Obamacare.
Impact Analysis: Negative impact on exports.
IT and IT services firms may see reduced profits due to a
Immigration tougher stance on H-1B visas; however, favorable
tax policies might mitigate some negative effects.
Impact Analysis: Likely negative impact on
profits.
Energy - Oil Increased oil exploration in the US could stabilize
prices, benefiting India's import bill and oil
marketing companies (OMCs).
Impact Analysis: Positive for India's economy.
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Military Defense ties strengthened during Trump's first term
Cooperation with agreements like the GE-HAL deal for jet
engine manufacturing.
A continued strong military partnership is
expected, especially in countering China's
influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Quad alliance may see further military
cooperation under a renewed Trump
administration.
Indian The rupee may face depreciation due to rising
currency inflation and prolonged high interest rates.
Diplomatic Trump's "America First" policy may lead to
Landscape increased isolationism but also offers India
opportunities to assert itself globally.
India's strategic interests may align with US goals
in countering China, requiring careful navigation
of complex geopolitical dynamics.
Economic Analysts predict that Trump's return could lead to
Predictions higher tariffs impacting inflation and economic
growth in India.
The US is India's largest trading partner, with
bilateral trade reaching approximately $190 billion
in recent years.
A focus on protectionism could disrupt India's
export-dependent sectors while presenting
challenges for domestic businesses reliant on US
markets.
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Q.9 What Trump 2.0 means for India-Us trade?
Impact on Indian Exports
Pharmaceuticals and IT Services: Indian pharmaceutical exports to
the U.S. could face challenges, particularly due to a likely hardening
of Trump's stance on H-1B visas, which may lead to increased
rejections and affect profits for Indian IT services firms that rely
heavily on skilled labor from India. The expectation is that Trump's
administration may impose higher tariffs on goods exported from
India, potentially affecting sectors like pharmaceuticals and textiles,
which are crucial for India's economy.
Trade Balance: The U.S. is India's largest trading partner, with
bilateral trade reaching nearly $120 billion in FY24. This relationship
is favorable for India, as the U.S. accounts for about 18% of India's
total exports, a significant increase from 10% in 2010-11. However,
Trump's previous rhetoric labeling India as a "trade abuser" suggests
that he may seek to renegotiate trade terms unfavorably for India.
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and aluminum imports from various countries, including India, under
national security provisions. Similar measures could be anticipated
again, which would likely strain India's export sectors.
Inflation Concerns: The Peterson Institute for International
Economics has projected that Trump's economic policies could lead
to increased inflation in the U.S., potentially rising consumer prices
significantly. This inflation could adversely impact Indian exports of
labor-intensive goods such as textiles and leather products, which are
sensitive to price changes in the U.S. market.
Bipartisan Support
Both the Trump and Biden administrations have been equally
supportive of India, contributing to approximately $15 billion in arms
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deals over the past eight years. This bipartisan support underscores
the strategic significance of the India-US defence partnership.
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from 8% two decades ago to 13% in 2023, reflecting a growing
reliance on American defence technology.
Defence Agreements
Two critical defence agreements-Communications Compatibility and
Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and
Cooperation Agreement (BECA)-were signed during Trump’s
presidency. These agreements enhance military cooperation and
interoperability between the two nations.
Potential Benefits
Experts suggest that under Trump’s leadership, India may see
additional benefits, such as a reduction in conflicts related to
terrorism and a potential halt to the Khalistan movement. This could
further stabilize regional security dynamics.
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US accounted for nearly 50% of India's $2-2.5 billion defence exports
in FY24.
Challenges Ahead
While defence ties are strong, challenges such as trade issues and
India's non-aligned stance could create friction in the relationship
moving forward. Navigating these complexities will be crucial for
sustaining and enhancing the partnership.This structured summary
provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving India-US defense
relationship in light of Donald Trump's presidency, highlighting key
aspects in both paragraph and table formats for clarity.
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He also noted potential challenges in immigration, suggesting that legal
immigration numbers might decrease, affecting family reunification for
Indian nationals. However, Tharoor acknowledged that Trump's strong
position against China could align with India's interests, providing
opportunities for cooperation.
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Trudeau's call for an investigation into alleged Indian involvement has
strained diplomatic ties, leading to suspended trade negotiations and the
expulsion of Canadian diplomats by India. Experts suggest that Trump's
presidency may strengthen Modi's position, enhancing India's global
influence.
Patrick Brauckmann predicts Modi will likely be among the first world
leaders to visit Washington under Trump. Modi congratulated Trump on
his election victory, expressing eagerness to renew collaboration.
Trudeau faces a precarious situation, with commentators warning that
his strained relationship with India could lead to political and diplomatic
isolation. Some suggest Canada may benefit from a leadership change to
better navigate relations under Trump. Overall, the rift between India
and Canada could impact trade and immigration ties significantly.
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Middle East Peace Efforts
Trump has historically backed Israel and its military actions, aligning
closely with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His administration
facilitated the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between
Israel and several Arab nations. However, his approach may lack
credibility with Palestinian leadership.
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Pakistan regarding its role in regional terrorism, which could strain
Islamabad's relations with Washington.
Trade Relations
Tariffs and Trade Policies: Trump’s protectionist stance may lead to
renewed scrutiny of India's trade practices. He has criticized India for
high tariffs and could push for reciprocal tariffs if he perceives unfair
trade practices. This could affect India’s export viability and
economic relations with its neighbors.
Economic Opportunities for India: Trump's "China Plus One" strategy
might encourage US companies to diversify supply chains, potentially
benefiting India as an alternative manufacturing hub.
Immigration Policies
H-1B Visa Restrictions: Trump's previous administration
implemented strict immigration policies that affected Indian
professionals, particularly in the tech sector. If similar policies are
reinstated, it could limit opportunities for skilled Indian workers,
impacting the Indian diaspora and tech firms reliant on this talent.
Regional Workforce Dynamics: Stricter immigration laws could push
Indian tech firms to explore other markets or invest more
domestically, altering workforce dynamics in neighboring countries
that rely on Indian talent.
Regional Tensions
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Trump's foreign policy may also influence
India's relations with its immediate neighbors like Bangladesh and Sri
Lanka. His administration's stance on issues such as human rights
and regional stability could affect diplomatic ties.
China's Response: China's reaction to a Trump presidency could
further escalate tensions in the region, especially if the US continues
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to strengthen its military partnerships with India and other countries
in the Indo-Pacific.
Demographic Significance
Indian Americans number over 5.2 million, representing
approximately 1.5% of the U.S. population.
The Indian American population grew by over 50% between 2010
and 2020, making it the second-largest immigrant group in the U.S.
The median household income for Indian Americans is significantly
higher than the national average, indicating strong socioeconomic
status.
Political Trends
Historically, Indian Americans have leaned heavily Democratic;
however, Democratic identification has declined from 56% in 2020 to
47% in 2024.
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A noticeable shift towards Republican candidates is evident among
younger voters, particularly young men, who increasingly support
figures like Donald Trump.
Key issues for the community include economic concerns and
immigration policies.
Engagement Strategies
Both major parties actively court Indian American voters, with
targeted campaigns aimed at addressing their specific interests.
The Trump campaign engages young Indian men through popular
media and messaging focused on economic stability and strong U.S.-
India relations.
Organizations like Indian American Impact mobilize grassroots
support for Democratic candidates, particularly Kamala Harris.
Election Impact
Polling indicates that about one in three Indian Americans may vote
for Trump in 2024, suggesting potential swing votes that could
influence tight elections.
The visibility of candidates like Kamala Harris has increased political
interest and participation within the Indian American community.
Greater activism among Indian Americans is fostering engagement in
the electoral process.
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Q.16 What are Trump's expected policy as President?
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Q.17 How USA election results will impact World?
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Trump In previous Tenure 2017
Kashmir Trump's past comments on Kashmir may lead to a more
Issue hands-off approach, potentially emboldening Pakistan.
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2018
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Climate Openly not caring much for climate change, rolled back
environmental protections, pulled out of the Paris
Agreement, and expanded the U.S. carbon footprint.
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Q.18 What is the way forward for India - USA relations?
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Relevance for Prelims and Mains:
Relevance for UPSC Prelims
a. Bilateral Importance: Key to understanding international relations;
significant for questions on global diplomacy.
b. Historical Context: Evolution from Cold War estrangement to
strategic partnership, including milestones like the 2008 Civil Nuclear
Agreement.
c. Current Developments: Recent initiatives (e.g., clean energy
partnerships, defense technology) relevant for current affairs.
d. Economic Engagement: Significant trade figures (e.g., USD 128.55
billion in 2022-23) highlight economic ties.
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Q2. Which of the following countries is not a member of NATO?
(2019)
(a) Canada
(b) Australia
(c) Turkey
(d) France
Ans: (b)
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Suman Sharma Ma'am
What are your views on INDIA - USA relation?
Recent NATO conflict - role of USA, Uk and France respectively. If
Donald Trump elected again, how will he see NATO?
What will happen if Trump comes to power - vis-a-vis Ukraine and
Taiwan?
USA is killing foreign nationals on foreign soils like Osama Bin
Laden, then why it objects India's actions?
If India takes such actions on other soils, could USA and Western
countries questioned India on that?
Q2. Should India shift its alignment towards the USA and away from
Russia?
(a) YES
(b) NO
(c) Can’t say.
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