LM Maths Section 9 Lversion
LM Maths Section 9 Lversion
SECTION
9 PROBABILITY OF
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
INTRODUCTION
Probability is about understanding and measuring how likely different things
are to happen. It is used in many areas like statistics, economics, and finance.
Simple probability experiments are things where every outcome is equally likely,
like flipping a coin (heads or tails) or rolling a die (any number from 1 to 6).
Compound probability experiments involve more steps or events. For example,
drawing two cards from a deck without putting the first one back. This changes
the chances for the second draw. Independent events are when the outcome of
one event doesn’t affect the outcome of another. For example, flipping a coin and
rolling a die are independent because the result of one doesn’t change the result
of the other. Understanding these concepts helps you make better decisions when
things are uncertain. It also helps with other subjects like physics and biology,
where probability is used to understand random processes. Overall, learning about
probability helps you improve your problem-solving and critical thinking skills.
Key ideas
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
• Events: Events are specific results or sets of outcomes that you are
interested in from an experiment.
• Sample space: is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
Activity 1
Solution
Experiment 1: Independent
Reason: The outcome of rolling the die does not affect the result of flipping
the coin. Each experiment has its own set of outcomes and does not influence
the other
Experiment 2: Dependent
Reason: The result of the first choice affects the composition of the group for
the second choice, as the number of students decreases and the probability
changes.
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
Example 1
A fair die is rolled twice. List the sample space for the experiment.
Solution
Example 2
List the sample space of rolling a die and flipping a coin once
Solution
Example 3
Let’s suppose there are ten balls in a box. Four balls are Green (G) and six balls are
Red (R). If we draw two balls, one at a time, with replacement, find the probability
of the following events:
1. Both balls are green.
2. The first ball is red and the second is green.
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
Solution
Let G1 and R1 be the events that the first ball is Green/Red respectively.
Similarly, let G2 and R2 be the events that the second ball is Green/Red.
Since we are dealing with sampling with replacement this means that:
6
__
P(G1) = P(G2) = 4 = __
10 25 and P(R1) = P(R2) = __
10 = __35
And it also means that the events are independent.
1. P(both balls are green) = P(G1 and G2) = P(G1∩ G2).
Since the trials are independent, P(G1 ∩ G2) = P(G1) × P(G2) = __25 × __25 = __45
2. P(First Red and Second Green) = P(R1 and G2) = P(R1 ∩G2). since the
35 = __
25 × __
trials are independent, so P(R1 ∩G2) = P(R1) × P(G2) = __ 65
3. We use the fact that P(at least one ball is Red) = 1 – P(both balls are Green).
Hence, P(at least one ball is Red) = 1 − __45 = __
21
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Example 4
A poll finds that 72% of Kumasi indigenes consider themselves football fans. If
you randomly pick two people from the population, what is the probability that
the first person is a football fan and the second is as well? That the first one is a
fan and the second one is not?
Solution
One person being a football fan does not have an effect on whether the second
randomly selected person is. Therefore, the events are independent and the
probability can be found by multiplying the probabilities together:
First one and second are football fans:
P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B) = 0.72 × 0.72 = 0.5184.
First one is a football fan, the second one isn’t:
P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B) = 0.72 × (1 – 0.72) = 0.2016.
In the second part, we multiplied by the complement. As the probability of being
a football fan is 0.72, then the probability of not being a fan is 1 – 0.72, or 0.28.
Events A and B are independent if the equation P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B) holds
true. You can use the equation to check if events are independent by multiplying
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
the probabilities of the two events together to see if they equal the probability of
them both happening together.
Example 5
You roll two fair six-sided dice. What is the probability that:
(a) Both dice land on an even number?
(b) The first die lands on a 2 and the second die lands on a 5?
(c) At least one die lands on a 6
Solution
Step 2: Calculate the probability for both dice landing on even numbers.
Since the rolls are independent, we multiply the probabilities for each
die
P(both even)=P(even on 1st die) × P(even on 2nd die) = __12 × __
12 = __
14
Thus, the probability that both dice land on an even number is:
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P(both even)= __
(b) Probability that the first die lands on a 2 and the second die lands on a 5
Step 1: Identify the probability of each specific outcome.
The probability of rolling a 2 on the first die is P(2 on 1st die) = __16
16
The probability of rolling a 5 on the second die is P(5 on 2nd die) = __
Step 2: Multiply the probabilities.
Since the rolls are independent, we multiply the probabilities for each
die:
P(2 on 1st, 5 on 2nd)=P(2 on 1st die) × P(5 on 2nd die)= __16 × __
16 = __
16
Thus, the probability that the first die lands on a 2 and the second die
16 .
lands on a 5 is __
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
A bag contains 3 blue marbles, 5 red marbles and 2 yellow marbles. You randomly
select two marbles with replacement. What is the probability that:
(a) Both marbles are blue?
(b) The first marble is red and the second is yellow?
(c) At least one marble is red?
Solution
Step 2: Since the marbles are drawn with replacement, the probability
remains the same for the second draw.
3
P(Blue) = __
10
Step 3: Calculate the probability of drawing two blue marbles in a row.
3
P(Both Blue) = P(Blue) × P(Blue) = __ × __
10 10 100
9
3 = ___
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
(b) Probability that the first marble is red and the second is yellow
Step 1: Calculate the probability of drawing a red marble on the first draw.
P(Red) = Number of red marbles / Total number of marbles
5 5
= _________ =
__
(3 + 5 + 2) 10 2
1
= __
12 × __15 = __
P(Red then Yellow) = P(Red) × P(Yellow) = __ 1
10
12 × __
= P(Both Not Red) = __ 12 = __14
Example 7
Solution
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
P(Heads) = __12
P(Tails) = __12
Step 3: Calculate the probability of getting heads on the first flip and tails
on the second flip.
21 × __12 = __
P(Heads then Tails) = P(Heads) × P(Tails) = __ 14
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P(At Least One Head) = 1 – P(Both Tails) = 1 – __14 = __
Tree diagrams
A tree diagram in probability is a visual representation used to map out all possible
outcomes of an event or series of events. It helps break down the probabilities
step-by-step by showing all possible paths (branches) that can occur in each stage
of an experiment.
A tree diagram is a useful tool to solve probability problems and they make things
easier.
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
Watch the video on Probability - Tree Diagrams by clicking on the link below:
https://youtu.be/mkDzmI7YOx0
Example 8
A bag has 9 discs. 4 discs are red and 5 are blue. A disc is chosen at random, its
colour noted and then replaced in the bag. Another disc is then chosen.
This information is represented on the tree diagram below. Can you see how it
works?
Key ideas
• Probabilities go on the branches and outcomes at the end of each branch.
• The sum of the probabilities across all the branches must be 1.
• When going across the tree diagram, we multiply probabilities.
E.g. P (2 red discs) = P(R, R)
49 × __
= P(R)× P(R)= __ 16
49 = __
81
• When going down the tree diagram, we add the probabilities.
E.g. P (same colour) = P(R, R) + P (B, B)
= P(R) × P(R) + P(B) × P(B)
94 × __
= __ 59 × __
49 + __ 59 = __
16 __
81 25 __
+ 81 41
= 81
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
Solution
To get one red disc, we could choose a red disc first and then a blue disc or
we could choose a blue disc and then a red disc.
= P(only 1 red disc) = P(R, B) + P(B ,R)
= P(R)× P(B) + P(B)× P(R)
95 + __59 × __
= __49 × __ 20
49 = __ 20 = __
+ __
81 81 81
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N.B. This is the same as finding the probability of getting different colours.
2. What is the probability of getting at least one blue disc?
Solution
“At least one blue disc” is the complementary event of “no blue discs”. “No
blue discs” means that two red discs have been chosen
P(at least 1 blue disc) = 1 − P(no blue discs) = 1−P(2 red discs) = 1− P(R, R)
49 × __
= 1− __ 16
49 = 1− __ 65
= __
81 81
N.B. You could also do P(at least 1 blue disc) = P(1 blue disc) + P(2 blue
discs)
Solution
We first find the probability that the message will be successfully transmitted. For
successful transmission, we need all nodes to be working. The probability that a
node will not fail is P(Node does not fail) = 1– P(Node fails) = 1 – 0.01 = 0.99.
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
Since all the nodes are independent, the probability that node 1 AND node 2
AND node 3 do not fail = 0.99 × 0.99 × 0.99 = 0.970299
Accordingly, P(message is not successful) = 1 – P(message is successful)
= 1– 0.970299 = 0.029701 ≈ 3%.
Example 10
A retail store sells two types of products: electronics and clothing. The store
manager wants to analyse the sales data to understand the relationship between
the sales of these two product categories.
The store’s sales data for the last month shows the following:
• The probability of a customer buying an electronic product is 0.3.
• The probability of a customer buying a clothing product is 0.4.
Assume that the purchases of electronic and clothing products are independent
events.
Question: What is the probability that a randomly selected customer will buy both
an electronic product and a clothing product?
Solution
To solve this problem, we need to use the concept of the probability of independent
events.
The probability of two independent events occurring together is the product of
their individual probabilities.
Let’s define the events:
• E: A customer buys an electronic product
• C: A customer buys a clothing product
Given information:
• P(E) = 0.3 (the probability of buying an electronic product)
• P(C) = 0.4 (the probability of buying a clothing product)
We want to find the probability of a customer buying both an electronic product
and a clothing product, which is P(E and C).
Since the purchases of electronic and clothing products are independent events,
we can use the multiplication rule for independent events:
P(E and C) = P(E) × P(C) P(E and C) = 0.3 × 0.4
∴P(E and C) = 0.12
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
Therefore, the probability that a randomly selected customer will buy both an
electronic product and a clothing product is 0.12 or 12%.
Example 11
Solution
Step 3: Calculate the probability that at least one test yields an accurate
result.
3
P(At Least One Accurate) = 1 - P(Both Inaccurate) = 1 – ___ 197
= ___
200 200
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
Example 12
Two flights, one from Korkorse to Chinderi and another from Chinderi to Boare
are independently scheduled.
The probability of a delay for the first flight is 20% and the probability of delay
for the second flight is 15%.
What is the probability that:
(a) Both flights are delayed?
(b) At least one flight is delayed?
Solution
15 = __
P(On-Time Flight 1) = 1 - P(Delayed Flight 1) = 1 – __ 45
3 17
P(On-Time Flight 2) = 1 - P(Delayed Flight 2) = 1 – __
20 20
= __
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
REVIEW QUESTIONS
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
GLOSSARY
• Probability: The likelihood or chance of an event happening.
• Independent Events: Two or more events where the outcome of one does
not affect the outcome of the other(s).
• Event: A possible outcome or occurrence in a probability experiment.
• Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes in a probability
experiment.
• Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot happen at the same time.
• Complementary Events: Two events where one must happen if the other
does not.
• Probability Formula for Independent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B) where A and B are independent events.
• Outcome: The result of a single trial of an experiment.
• Trial: A single occurrence in a probability experiment.
• Experiment: A process that leads to the occurrence of one or more
outcomes.
• Theoretical Probability: Probability based on reasoning or calculations
(e.g., flipping a fair coin).
• Experimental Probability: Probability based on actual experiment results
or trials.
• Intersection of Events: The event that occurs if both events happen
simultaneously.
EXTENDED READING
• Akrong Series: Core mathematics for Senior High Schools New
International Edition (Pages 612 – 641)
• Aki – Ola series : Core Mathematics for Senior High Schools in West
Africa, Millennium edition 5 (Pages 259– 266)
• Baffour Asamoah, B. A. (2015). Baffour BA series: Core mathematics.
Accra: Mega Heights, (Pages 539 - 546)
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
REFERENCES
• Asiedu, P. (2016). Mathematics for Senior High Schools 1. S. Coleman, K.
A. Benson, H. A. Baah – Yeboah (Eds.). Aki - Ola Publications.
• Andrzej Trybulec. Enumerated sets. Formalized Mathematics, 1, 1990.
• Asiedu, P. (Millennium Edition 5). Core Mathematics for Senior High
Schools in West Africa. Aki - Ola Publications.
• Akrong Series: Core mathematics for Senior High Schools New
International Edition
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SECTION 9 Probability of Independent Events
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
List of Contributors
NAME INSTITUTION
Janet Waponade OLA SHS
Yamusah Issahaku Kumbungu SHS
Joseph Bakpil Nagbija Nchumuruman SHS, Chinderi
Modzaka Godfred Keta SHTS, Keta
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