MyWorld3: Equations and Explanations

Julien LEGAVRE

August 2022
Table Of Contents

Introduction 2
1 History of World3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 This Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
3 Vade Mecum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Equations of World3 3
4 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
5 Initial conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
6 Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
7 Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
7.1 Population dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
7.2 Death . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
7.3 Birth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
8 Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
8.1 Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
8.2 Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
8.3 Jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
9 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
9.1 Loop 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
9.2 Loop 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
9.3 Loop 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
9.4 Loop 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
9.5 Loop 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
10 Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
11 Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
12 Indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
12.1 Distribution of outputs between the different sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
12.2 Industrial outputs indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
12.3 Human Welfare Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
12.4 Human Ecological Footprint . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
13 Explanations on function Delay3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
14 Different scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Implementation 38
15 World3 dynamic.py . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
16 World3 system.py . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
17 World3 plot.py . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
18 World3 run.py . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Acknowledgements and Bibliography 41

Acronyms and Appendix 42

1
Introduction

1 History of World3
In 1968, a group of persons among heads of state and government, United Nation administrators,
high-level politicians, scientists, economists, and business leaders from around the globe is formed,
alarmed by the tendency mankind was taking. The international group created became known as
”The Club Of Rome” after its first meeting took place in this location.
At the same time, Professor J.W.Forrester, a scientist expert in dynamic systems, is finishing
its model on an industrial application of dynamic system using computer simulations. A few
months after, he proposes to design a model based on dynamic system to the Club Of Rome.
This model called World2 could represent the world, in order to observe the world-wide problem
which worries the organisation [1] . Its approach seemed interesting to their eyes and so after having
discussed about some components of the model which were approximately described and based
on some strong assumptions, the new model World3 is created [2] . Produced in cooperation with
D.L. Meadows, it will be used in the ”The Limits To Growth” to have a good based to explain
the dynamic of different parameters. The Club Of Rome received criticisms from all around the
world, because of their conclusions on the future of mankind which were alarming. After the
model was upgraded and more data were collected, an update version of their book was published
30 years after the first one [3] .

2 This Study
This study aims at coding in Python the World3 model of 1972 and 2003 with its different scenario
to observe its behavior. The objective is to do it in a way that everyone with basic knowledge
in Python could modify it. [4] This paper explains how this World3 model is implemented. It is
based on previous explanations and implementations which have been carried out [5] [6] [7] [8] . The
code is available here1 . It is under two licences: GNU-GPL version 2.0 and CeCILL which is an
adaptation of the GNU-GPL to the French laws. More information are available here2 .
Either one can be used.
A graph representing World3 model in detail and another one showing its distribution by units
(non-renewable resources, agriculture, pollution, population, capital) are given in last pages.

3 Vade Mecum
Before reading this study, it is recommended to have read the following works:
• D. H. Meadows, J. Randers, and D. L. Meadows, The limits to growth: the 30-year update [3]
• F. E. Cellier and S. Fabricius, “SystemDynamics - World3” [7]
1
https://github.com/Juji29/MyWorld3
2
https://cecill.info/index.fr.html

2
Equations of World3

4 Introduction
There is no real calibration of equations in order to make sure that values match with historical
values. But the values have been inspected regarding historical tendency from 1900 to 1970. The
choice of input have been made in order to obtain coherent curves with the model and historic
data. The values given are valid for the scenario 1. To obtain the other scenario, you will have
to change only the variables named in the section ”Different scenario”. In the code, it is already
made so you have just to choose the scenario number named N SCENARIO.
In addition, some equations are boxed. It corresponds to equations which make the link between
the different parts detailed in the graph which is at the end of this document.
Finally, each acronym is explained in the section Acronyms and Appendix.

5 Initial conditions

Name Type Value Dimension

IT constant 1900 Year
FT constant 2100 Year
TS constant 0.5 Year

6 Units

Name Type Value Dimension

OY constant 1 Year
U AGI constant 1 $/(Ha·Year)
UP constant 1 Person
GDP U constant 1 $/(Person·Year)

3
7 Population

7.1 Population dynamics

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

P1I initial value 650×106 Person
P2I initial value 700×106 Person
P3I initial value 190×106 Person
P4I initial value 60×106 Person

Equations

Total Population (POP) :

P OP = P1 + P2 + P3 + P4 (1)

Population aged from 0 to 14 years (P1 ) :

dP1
= B − D1 − M AT1 (2)
dt

Deaths per year in population aged from 0 to 14 years (D1 ) :

D1 = P1 × M1 (3)

Mortality rate in population aged from 0 to 14 years (M1 ) :

LE
OY
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
(4)
M1 5.67×10−2 3.66×10−2 2.43×10−2 1.55×10−2 8.2×10−3 2.3×10−3 1×10−3

Maturation rate of 14 years old people (MAT1 ) :

P1 × (1 − M1 )
M AT1 = (5)
15

4
Population aged from 15 to 44 years (P2 ) :

dP2
= M AT1 − D2 − M AT2 (6)
dt

Deaths per year in population aged from 15 to 44 years (D2 ) :

D2 = P2 × M2 (7)

Mortality rate in population aged from 15 to 44 years (M2 ) :

LE
OY
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
(8)
M2 2.66×10−2 1.71×10−2 1.1×10−2 6.5×10−3 4×10−3 1.6×10−3 8×10−4

Maturation rate of 44 years old people (MAT2 ) :

P2 × (1 − M2 )
M AT2 = (9)
30

Population aged from 45 to 64 years (P3 ) :

dP3
= M AT2 − D3 − M AT3 (10)
dt

Deaths per year in population aged from 45 to 64 years (D3 ) :

D3 = P3 × M3 (11)

Mortality rate in population aged from 45 to 64 years (M3 ) :

LE
OY
20 30 40 50 60 70 80

M3 5.62×10−2 3.73×10−2 2.52×10−2 1.71×10−2 1.18×10−2 8.3×10−3 6×10−3

(12)
Maturation rate of 64 years old people (MAT3 ) :

P3 × (1 − M3 )
M AT3 = (13)
20

5
Population older than age 65 (P4 ) :

dP4
= M AT3 − D4 (14)
dt

Deaths per year in population older than age 65 (D4 ) :

D4 = P4 × M4 (15)

Mortality rate in population older than age 65 (M4 ) :

LE
OY
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
(16)
M4 0.13 0.011 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04

7.2 Death

Constants

Name ID Type Value Dimension

LEN constant 28 Year
HSID constant 20 Year
EHSP CI initial value 0 $/Year

Equations

Deaths per year (D) :

D = D1 + D2 + D3 + D4 (17)

Crude Death Rate (CDR) :

1 000 × D
CDR = (18)
P OP

Life Expectancy (LE) :

LE = LEN × LM F × LM HS × LM P × LM C (19)

6
Lifetime Multiplier from Food (LMF) :

FPC
SF P C
0 1 2 3 4 5

LM F 1972 0 1 1.2 1.3 1.35 1.4 (20)

LM F 2003 0 1 1.43 1.5 1.5 1.5

Health Services Allocations Per Capita (HSAPC) :

SOP C
GDP U
0 250 500 750 1 000 1 250 1 500 1 750 2 000
(21)
HSAP C 0 20 50 95 140 175 200 220 230

Effective Health Services Per Capita (EHSPC) :

dEHSP C HSAP C − EHSP C

= (22)
dt HSID

Lifetime Multiplier from Health Services (LMHS) :


 LM HS2 , if T IM E > 1940

LM HS = (23)
 LM HS ,
 else 1

EHSP C
GDP U
0 20 40 60 80 100

LM HS1 1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8

(24)
LM HS21972 1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.95 2

LM HS22003 1 1.5 1.9 2 2 2

Fraction of Population Urban (FPU) :

P OP
UP
0 2×109 4×109 6×109 8×109 1×1010 1.2×1010 1.4×1010 1.6×1010
(25)
FPU 0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.58 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.8

7
Crowding Multiplier from Industry (CMI) :

IOP C
GDP U
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600
(26)
CM I 0.5 0.05 -0.1 -0.08 -0.02 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2

Lifetime Multiplier from Crowding (LMC) :

LM C = 1 − CM I × F P U (27)

Lifetime Multiplier from persistant Polution (LMP) :

P P OLX 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
(28)
LM P 1 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.75 0.65 0.55 0.4 0.2

7.3 Birth

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

RLT constant 30 Year
P ET constant 4000 Year
MT F N constant 12 Dmnl
LP D constant 20 Year
AIOP CI initial value 43.3 $/Year
ZP GT constant 4000 Year
DCF SN 1972 constant 4 Dmnl
DCF SN 2003 constant 3.8 Dmnl
SAD constant 20 Year
IEAT constant 3 Year
F CEST constant 4000 Year

8
Equations

Births per year (B) : 

D , if T IM E ⩾ P ET


B= (29)
T F ×P2


2×RLT
, else

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) :

1 000 × B
CBR = (30)
P OP

Total Fertility (TF) :

T F = M in(M T F, M T F × (1 − F CE) + DT F × F CE) (31)

Maximum Total Fertility (MTF) :

MT F = MT F N × F M (32)

Fertility Multiplier (FM) :

LE
OY
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

F M 1972 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 1.05 1.1 (33)

F M 2003 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.75 0.79 0.84 0.87

Desired Total Fertility (DTF) :

DT F = DCF S × CM P LE (34)

Compensatory Multiplier from Perceived Life Expectancy (CMPLE) :

P LE
OY
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
(35)
CM P LE 3 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.05 1

9
Perceived Life Expectancy (PLE) :

P LE = Delay3(LE, LP D) (36)

Desired Completed Family Size (DCFS) :


2 , if T IM E ⩾ ZP GT


DCF S = (37)
 DCF SN × F RSN × SF SN ,
 else

Social Family Size Norm (SFSN) :

DIOP C
GDP U
0 200 400 600 800

SF SN 1972 1.25 1 0.9 0.8 0.75 (38)

SF SN 2003 1.25 0.94 0.715 0.59 0.5

Delayed Industrial Output Per Capita (DIOPC) :

DIOP C = Delay3(IOP C, SAD) (39)

Family Response to Social Norm (FRSN) :

F IE -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2

(40)
F RSN 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.85 1

Family Income Expectation (FIE) :

IOP C − AIOP C
F IE = (41)
AIOP C

Average Industrial Output Per Capita (AIOPC) :

dAIOP C IOP C − AIOP C

= (42)
dt IEAT

10
Need for Fertility Control (NFC) :

MT F
NF C = −1 (43)
DT F

Fertility Control Effectiveness (FCE) :





 1 , if T IM E ⩾ F CEST

F CE = F CF P C (44)
GDP U
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3


 , else
F CE 0.75 0.85 0.9 0.95 0.98 0.99 1



Fertility Control Facilities Per Capita (FCFPC) :

F CF P C = Delay3(F CAP C, HSID) (45)

Fertility Control Allocations Per Capita (FCAPC) :

F CAP C = F SAF C × SOP C (46)

Fraction of Services Allocated to Fertility Control (FSAFC) :

NF C 0 2 4 6 8 10
(47)
F SAF C 0 0.005 0.015 0.025 0.03 0.035

8 Capital

8.1 Industrial

Constants

11
 Name Type Value Dimension
ICOR1 constant 3 Year
ICOR21972 constant 3 Year
ICI initial value 2.1×1011 $
ALIC1 constant 14 Year
ALIC2 constant 14 Year
IET constant 4000 Year
F IOAC1 constant 0.43 Dmnl
F IOAC2 constant 0.43 Dmnl
IOP CD constant 400 $/(Person·Year)
P Y EAR1972 constant 1975 Year
P Y EAR2003 constant 4000 Year

Equations

Industrial Output Per Capita (IOPC) :

IO
IOP C = (48)
P OP

Industrial Output (IO) :

IC × (1 − F CAOR) × CU F
IO = (49)
ICOR

Industrial Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) :


 ICOR2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

ICOR = (50)
 ICOR ,

1 else

Industrial Capital (IC) :

dIC
= ICIR − ICDR (51)
dt

Industrial Capital Depreciation Rate (ICDR) :

IC
ICDR = (52)
ALIC

12
Average Lifetime of Industrial Capital (ALIC) :

 ALIC2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

ALIC = (53)
 ALIC1 ,
 else

Industrial Capital Investment Rate (ICIR) :

ICIR = IO × F IAOI (54)

Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Industry (FIOAI) :

F IOAI = 1 − F IOAA − F IOAS − F IOAC (55)

Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Consumption (FIOAC) :


 F IOACV , if T IM E ⩾ IET

F IOAC = (56)
 F IOACC,
 else

Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Consumption Constant (FIOACC) :


 F IOAC2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

F IOACC = (57)
 F IOAC ,

1 else

Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Consumption Variable (FIOACV) :

IOP C 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

(58)
IOP CD 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.43 0.73 0.77 0.81 0.82 0.83

In addition for the version 2003:

ICOR2003
2 :
ICOR22003 = ICOR2T × COY M × COP M (59)

13
8.2 Services

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

SCI initial value 1.44×1011 $
ALSC1 constant 20 Year
ALSC2 constant 20 Year
SCOR1 constant 1 Year
SCOR2 constant 1 Year

Equations

Indicated Service Output Per Capita (ISOPC) :


 ISOP C2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

ISOP C = (60)
 ISOP C ,

1 else

IOP C
GDP U
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600

ISOP C1 40 300 640 1 000 1 220 1 450 1 650 1 800 2 000 (61)

ISOP C2 40 300 640 1 000 1 220 1 450 1 650 1 800 2 000

Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Services (FIOAS) :


 F IOAS2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

F IOAS = (62)
 F IAOS ,

1 else

SOP C
ISOP C
0 0.5 1 1.5 2

F IOAS1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 0 (63)

F IOAS2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 0

14
Service Capital Investment Rate (SCIR) :

SCIR = IO × F IOAS (64)

Service Capital (SC) :

dSC
= SCIR − SCDR (65)
dt

Service Capital Depreciation Rate (SCDR) :

SC
SCDR = (66)
ALSC

Average Lifetime of Service Capital (ALSC) :


 ALSC2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

ALSC = (67)
 ALSC , else
1


Service Output (SO) :

SC × CU F
SO = (68)
SCOR

Service Output Per Capita (SOPC) :

SO
SOP C = (69)
P OP

Service Capital-Output Rate (SCOR) :


 SCOR2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

SCOR = (70)
 SCOR1 ,
 else

8.3 Jobs

Constants

15
 Name Type Value Dimension
LF P F constant 0.75 Dmnl
LU F DT constant 2 Year
LU F DI initial value 1 Dmnl

Equations

Job (J) :
J = P JIS + P JAS + P JSS (71)

Potential Jobs in Industrial Sector (PJIS) :

P JIS = IC × JP ICU (72)

Jobs Per Industrial Capital Unit (JPICU) :

IOP C
GDP U
50 200 350 500 650 800
(73)
−4 −4 −4 −5 −5 −5
JP ICU 3.7×10 1.8×10 1.2×10 9×10 7×10 6×10

Potential Jobs in Service Sector (PJSS) :

P JSS = SC × JP SCU (74)

Jobs Per Service Capital Unit (JPSCU) :

SOP C
GDP U
50 200 350 500 650 800
(75)
JP SCU 1.1×10−3 6×10−4 3.5×10−4 2×10−4 1.5×10−4 1.5×10−4

Potential Jobs in Agricultural Sector (PJAS) :

P JAS = JP H × AL (76)

16
Jobs Per Hectare (JPH) :

AIP H
U AGI
2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30
(77)
JP H 2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.27 0.24 0.2 0.2

Labor Force (LF) :

LF = (P2 + P3 ) × LF P F (78)

Labor Utilization Fraction (LUF) :

J
LU F = (79)
LF

Labor Utilization Fraction Delayed (LUFD) :

dLU F D LF − LU F D
= (80)
dt LU F DT

Capital Utilization Fraction (CUF) :

LU F D 1 3 5 7 9 11
(81)
CU F 1 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1

9 Agriculture

9.1 Loop 1

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

P ALT constant 3.2×109 Year
ALI initial value 9×108 Year
P ALI initial value 2.3×109 $
LF H constant 0.7 Dmnl
PL constant 0.1 Dmnl

17
Equations

Land Fraction Cultivated (LFC) :

AL
LF C = (82)
P ALT

Arable Land (AL) :

dAL
= LDR − LER − LRU I (83)
dt

Potentially Arable Land (PAL) :

dP AL
= −LDR (84)
dt

Food (F) :
F = LY × AL × LF H × (1 − P L) (85)

Fraction Per Capita (FPC) :

F
FPC = (86)
P OP

Indicated Food Per Capita (IFPC) :


 IF P C2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

IF P C = (87)
 IF P C1 ,
 else

IOP C
GDP U
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600

IF P C1 230 480 690 850 970 1 070 1 150 1 210 1 250 (88)

IF P C2 230 480 690 850 970 1 070 1 150 1 210 1 250

Total Agricultural Investment (TAI) :

IO
T AI = (89)
F IOAA

Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Agriculture (FIOAA) :


 F IOAA2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

F IOAA = (90)
 F IOAA ,

1 else

18
 FPC
IF P C
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

F IOAA1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.025 0 0 (91)

F IOAA2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.025 0 0

Land Development Rate (LDR) :

T AI × F IALD
LDR = (92)
DCP H

Development Cost Per Hectare (DCPH) :

P AL
P ALT
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
(93)
DCP H 100 000 7 400 5 200 3 500 2 400 1 500 750 300 150 75 50

9.2 Loop 2

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

AII initial value 5×109 $/Year
ALAI1 constant 2 Year
ALAI2 constant 2 Year
LY F1 constant 1 Dmnl
LY F21972 constant 1 Dmnl
IO70 constant 7.9×1011 $/Year
SD constant 0.07 Year−1

Equations

Current Agricultural Inputs (CAI) :

CAI = T AI × (1 − F IALD) (94)

19
Agricultural Inputs (AI) :
dAI CAI − AI
= (95)
dt ALAI

Average Lifetime of Agricultural Inputs (ALAI) :


 ALAI2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

ALAI = (96)
 ALAI1 ,
 else

Agricultural Inputs Per Hectare (AIPH) :

AI × (1 − F ALM )
AIP H = (97)
AL

Land Yield Multiplier from Capital (LYMC) :

AIP H
U AGI
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480

LY M C 1972 1 3 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.7 6 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4

LY M C 2003 1 3 4.5 5 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.35 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4
AIP H
U AGI
520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1 000

LY M C 1972 7.6 7.8 8 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10

LY M C 2003 7.6 7.8 8 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10
(98)
Land Yield (LY) :
LY = LY F × LF ERT × LY M C × LY M AP (99)

Land Yield Factor (LYF) :


 LY F2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

LY F = (100)
 LY F ,

1 else

20
Land Yield Multiplier from Air Pollution (LYMAP) :

 LY M AP2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

LY M AP = (101)
 LY M AP ,
 else
1

IO
IO70
0 10 20 30

LY M AP1 1 1 0.7 0.4

(102)
LY M AP21972 1 1 0.7 0.4

LY M AP22003 1 1 0.98 0.95

Fraction of Inputs Allocated to Land Development (FIALD) :

M P LD
M P AI
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2
(103)
F IALD 0 0.05 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.85 0.95 1

Marginal Productivity of Land Development (MPLD) :

LY
M P LD = (104)
DCP H × SD

Marginal Productivity of Agricultural Inputs (MPAI) :

ALAI × LY × M LY M C
M P AI = (105)
LY M C

Marginal Land Yield Multiplier from Capital (MLYMC) :

AIP H
U AGI
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280

F IALD 0.075 0.03 0.015 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005

(106)
AIP H
U AGI
320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600

F IALD 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005

In addition for the version 2003:

21
 Name Type Value Dimension
T DD constant 20 Year

LYF2003
2 :
LY F22003 = Delay3(LY T D, T DD) (107)

9.3 Loop 3

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

ALLN 1972 constant 6 000 Year
ALLN 2003 constant 1 000 Year
U ILDT constant 10 Year
U ILI initial value 8.2×106 Ha
LLM Y T M constant 4000 Year

Equations

Average Life of Land (ALL) :

ALL = ALLN × LLM Y (108)

Land Life Multiplier from Yield (LLMY) :


 0.95 T IM E−LLM
 OY
Y TM
LLM Y1 + (1 − 0.95
T IM E−LLM Y T M
OY )LLM Y2 , if T IM E ⩾ LLM Y T M
LLM Y =

 LLM Y1 , else
(109)

LY
ILF
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

LLM Y1 1.2 1 0.63 0.36 0.16 0.055 0.04 0.025 0.015 0.01
(110)
LLM Y21972 1.2 1 0.63 0.36 0.16 0.055 0.04 0.025 0.015 0.01

LLM Y22003 1.2 1 0.63 0.36 0.29 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.2

22
Land Erosion Rate (LER) :
AL
LER = (111)
ALL

Urban-Industrial Land Per Capita (UILPC) :

IOP C
GDP U
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600
(112)
U ILP C 0.005 0.008 0.015 0.025 0.04 0.055 0.07 0.08 0.09

Urban-Industrial Land Required (UILR) :

U ILR = U ILP C × P OP (113)

Land Removal from Urban-Industrial use (LRUI) :

M ax(0, U ILR − U IL)

LRU I = (114)
U ILDT

Urban-Industrial Land (UIL) :

dU IL
= LRU I (115)
dt

9.4 Loop 4

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

LF ERT I constant 600 Veg eq kg/(Year·Ha)

Equations

Land Fertility (LFERT) :

dLF ERT
= LF R − LF D (116)
dt

23
Land Fertility Degradation Rate (LFDR) :

P P OLX 0 10 20 30
(117)
LF DR 0 0.1 0.3 0.5

Land Fertility Degradation (LFD) :

LF D = LF ERT × LF DR (118)

9.5 Loop 5

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

ILF constant 600 Veg eq kg/(Year·Ha)
SF P C constant 230 Veg eq kg/(Year·Ha)
P F RI initial value 1 Dmnl
F SDP constant 2 Year

Equations

Land Fertility Regeneration (LFR) :

ILF − LF ERT
LF R = (119)
LF RT

Land Fertility Regeneration Time (LFRT) :

F ALM 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1

(120)
LF RT 20 13 8 4 2 1.2

24
Fraction of inputs Allocated to Land Maintenance (FALM) :

PFR 0 1 2 3 4
(121)
F ALM 0 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.1

Food Ratio (FR) :

FPC
FR = (122)
SF P C

Perceived Food Ratio (PFR) :

dP F R FR − PFR
= (123)
dt F SDP

In addition for the version 2003:

Name Type Value Dimension

DF R constant 2 Dmnl

Land Yield Technology Development (LYTD) :

dLY T D
= LY T DR (124)
dt

Land Yield Technology Development Rate (LYTDR) :


 LY T D × LY CM , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

LY T DR = (125)

 0 , else

Land Yield Change Multiplier (LYCM) :

DF R − F R 0 1
(126)
LY CM 0 0

Capital Output Yield Multiplier (COYM) :

LY F 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

(127)
COY M 1 1.05 1.12 1.25 1.35 1.5

25
10 Resources

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

N RI initial value 1012 Resource Units
N RU F1 constant 1 Dmnl
N RU F21972 constant 1 Dmnl
F ACORT M constant 4000 Year

Equations

Non-renewable Resources (NR) :

dN R
= −N RU R (128)
dt

Non-renewable Resources Usage Rate (NRUR) :

N RU R = P OP × P CRU M × N RU F (129)

Non-renewable Resources Usage Factor (NRUF) :


 N RU F2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

N RU F = (130)
 N RU F ,

1 else

Per Capita Resources Usage Multiplier (PCRUM) :

IOP C
GDP U
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600
(131)
P CRU M 0 0.85 2.6 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.7 5

Non-renewable Resources Fraction Remaining (NRFR) :

NR
N RF R = (132)
N RI
26
Fertility Control Allocated to Obtaining Resources (FCAOR) :

 F CAOR2 , if T IM E ⩾ F CAORT M

F CAOR = (133)
 F CAOR1 ,
 else

N RF R 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

F CAOR1 1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
(134)
F CAOR21972 1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

F CAOR22003 1 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

In addition for the version 2003:

Name Type Value Dimension

DN RU R constant 4 000 Year

NRUF2003
2 :
N RU F22003 = Delay3(N RT D, T DD) (135)

Non-renewable Resources Technology Development (NRTD) :

dN RT D
= N RAT E (136)
dt

Non-renewable Resource Technology Improvement Rate (NRATE) :


 N RT D × N RCM , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

N RAT E = (137)

 0 , else

Non-renewable Resources Change Multiplier (NRCM) :

N RU R
1− DN RU R
-1 0
(138)
N RCM 0 0

27
Industrial Capital-Output Ratio Technology Transmission (ICOR2T) :

N RU F 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

(139)
ICOR2T 3.75 3.6 3.47 3.36 3.25 3.16 3.1 3.06 3.02 3.01 3

11 Pollution

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

P P GF1 constant 1 Dmnl
P P GF21972 constant 1 Dmnl
F RP M constant 0.02 Dmnl
IM EF constant 0.1 Dmnl
IM T I constant 10 Pollution Unit/Resource Unit
F IP M constant 0.001 Dmnl
AM T I constant 1 Pollution Unit/$
PPTD constant 20 Year
P P OLI initial value 2.5×107 Pollution Unit
P P OL70 constant 1.36×108 Pollution Unit
AHL70 constant 1.5 Year

Equations

Persistent Pollution Generation Rate (PPGR) :

P P GR = (P P GIO + P P GAO) × P P GF (140)

Persistent Pollution Generation Factor (PPGF) :


 P P GF2 , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

P P GF = (141)
 P P GF ,

1 else

28
Persistent Pollution Generated by Industrial Output (PPGIO) :

P P GIO = P CRU M × P OP × F RP M × IM EF × IM T I (142)

Persistent Pollution Generated by Agricultural Output (PPGAO) :

P P GAO = AIP H × AL × F IP M × AM T I (143)

Persistent Pollution Appearance Rate (PPAPR) :

P P AP R = Delay3(P P GR, P P T D) (144)

Persistent Pollution (PPOL) :

dP P OL
= P P AP R − P P ASR (145)
dt

Index of Persistent Pollution (PPOLX) :

P P OL
P P OLX = (146)
P P OL70

Persistent Pollution Assimilation Rate (PPASR) :

P P OL
P P ASR = (147)
1.4 × AHL

Assimilation Half-Life Multiplier (AHLM) :

P P OLX 1 251 501 751 1 001

(148)
AHLM 1 11 21 31 41

Assimilation Half-Life (AHL) :

AHL = AHL70 × AHLM (149)

29
 In addition for the version 2003:

Name Type Value Dimension

DP OLX constant 1.2 Dmnl

PPGF22003 :
P P GF22003 = Delay3(P T D, T DD) (150)

Pollution Technology Development (PTD) :

dP T D
= P T DR (151)
dt

Pollution Technology Development Rate (PTDR) :


 P T D × P OLGF M , if T IM E ⩾ P Y EAR

P T DR = (152)

 0 , else

Pollution Control Technology Change Multiplier (POLGFM) :

P P OLX
1− DP OLX
-1 0
(153)
P OLGF M 0 0

Capital Output Pollution Multiplier (COPM) :

P P GF 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

(154)
COP M 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.05 1.03 1.02 1.01 1 1

12 Indexes

12.1 Distribution of outputs between the different sector

Constants

30
 Name Type Value Dimension
P OF constant 0.22 $/Veg eq kg

Equations

Fraction of Output in Agriculture (FOA) :

P OF × F
F OA = (155)
P OF × F + SO + IO

Fraction Of Output in Industry (FOI) :

IO
F OI = (156)
P OF × F + SO + IO

Fraction Of Output in Service (FOS) :

S
F OS = (157)
P OF × F + SO + IO

12.2 Industrial outputs indexes

Equations

Resource usage Intensity (RESINT) :

N RU R
RESIN T = (158)
IO

Pollution Intensity Indicator (PLINID) :

P P GIO × P P GF
P LIN ID = (159)
IO

Consumed Industrial Output (CIO) :

CIO = IO × F IOAC (160)

31
Consumed Industrial Output Per Capita (CIOPC) :

CIO
CIOP C = (161)
P OP

12.3 Human Welfare Index

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

RHGDP constant 9 508 $/(Year·Person)
RLGDP constant 24 $/(Year·Person)

Equations

Human Welfare Index (HWI) :

LEI + EI + GDP I
HW I = (162)
3

Life Expectancy Index (LEI) :

LE
OY
25 35 45 55 65 75 85
(163)
LEI 0 0.16 0.33 0.5 0.67 0.84 1

Education Index (EI) :

GDP P C
GDP U
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000
(164)
EI 0 0.81 0.88 0.92 0.95 0.98 0.99 1

Gross Domestic Product Index (GDPI) :

log10 ( GDP PC
RLGDP
)
GDP I = RHGDP
(165)
log10 ( RLGDP )

32
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) :

IOP C
GDP U
0 200 400 600 800 1 000
(166)
GDP P C 120 600 1 200 1 800 2 500 3 200

12.4 Human Ecological Footprint

Constants

Name Type Value Dimension

HU P constant 4 Ha/(Pollution Unit/Year)
TL constant 1.91 GHa
HGHA constant 109 GHa/Ha

Equations

Human Ecological Footprint (HEF) :

ALGGHA + U LGHA + ALGHA

HEF = (167)
TL

Absorption Land in Gigahectare (ALGHA) :

P P GR × HU P
ALGHA = (168)
GHAH

Arable Land in Gigahectare (ALGGHA) :

AL
ALGGHA = (169)
GHAH

Urban Land in Gigahectare (ULGHA) :

U IL
U LGHA = (170)
GHAH

33
13 Explanations on function Delay3

Delay3 :
Y = Delay3(V AL, DT )

⇔
DT
DL =
3
RT 1 = I1t−1 /DL

I1t = I1t−1 + (V ALt − RT 1) × T S avec I10 = DL × V AL0 (171)

RT 2 = I2t−1 /DL

I2t = I2t−1 + (RT 1 − RT 2) × T S avec I20 = DL × V AL0

I3t−1
I3t = I3t−1 + (RT 2 − ) × T S avec I30 = DL × V AL0
DL
Yt = I3t /DL

34
14 Different scenario

In ”Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update”, different scenario are given starting from the stan-
dard run described above. Here are the changes to make in order to obtain the different scenario:

• Scenario 2: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 1.

N RI = 2×1012

F CAORT M = 2002

N RF R 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

F CAOR22003 1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

• Scenario 3: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 2.

P Y EAR = 2002

P P OLX
1− DP OLX
-1 0

P OLGF M -0.04 0

• Scenario 4: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 3.

DF R − F R 0 1

LY CM 0 0.04

• Scenario 5: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 4.

LLM Y T M = 2002

• Scenario 6: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 5.

N RU R
1− DN RU R
-1 0

N RCM -0.04 0

35
• Scenario 7: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 2.

F CEST = 2002

ZP GT = 2002

• Scenario 8: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 7.

IOP CD = 350

ALAI2 = 2.5

ALIC2 = 18

ALSC2 = 25

IET = 2002

P Y EAR = 2002

• Scenario 9: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 8.

LLM Y T M = 2002

P P OLX
1− DP OLX
-1 0

P OLGF M -0.04 0

DF R − F R 0 1

LY CM 0 0.04

N RU R
1− DN RU R
-1 0

N RCM -0.04 0

• Scenario 10: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 9.

F CAORT M = 1982

36
 F CEST = 1982

IET = 1982

LLM Y T M = 1982

P Y EAR = 1982

ZP GT = 1982

• Scenario 11: This scenario starts with the same assumptions as Scenario 10.

F CAORT M = 2012

F CEST = 2012

IET = 2012

LLM Y T M = 2012

P Y EAR = 2012

ZP GT = 2012

37
Implementation

In this part, it will be explain how the code given in introduction works and how you can modify
it in order to experiment other scenario.
The code is composed of 4 files:
• world3 dynamic.py which concerns the resolution of the graph
• world3 system.py which concerns the creation of the graph
• world3 plot.py which concerns posting of the results
• world3 run.py which concerns the execution of the code

15 World3 dynamic.py
First, a general class Node is created in order to have a base for all nodes. Each node will have for
attributes: a name, a value, an associated function, predecessors, successors, a rank and a graph
to which it is linked.
Then, four types of node are defined: NodeStock, NodeFlow, NodeDelay3 and NodeConstant.
• A NodeStock is a node which is initialized with a value and at each step of time, its variation
is calculated. So it will be integrated after all the other nodes have been computed.
• A NodeFlow is a node which is calculated with the value of of NodeStock, NodeConstant
or other NodeFlows. Its value is calculated and not its variation.
• A NodeDelay3 is a node which has the same characteristics as a NodeFlow except the fact
that it takes into account the value it had at the step n-1 and n-2. So the value of the step
n is smoothed with its previous value. In order to do that, it has for attributes the constant
which is the delta of time, the node used to obtain the value of the current step and finally
I1, I2 and I3 to compute the smoothed value. The way they are computed is given in the
section 13.
• A NodeConstant is a node which is constant during all the execution of the program. There
are two types of NodeConstant: constant and tables. Constants have a single value where
tables are used to define piece-wise linear (PWL) functions. They are used instead of
equation for some nodes. Their implementation is made with a list of couple (x, y) and a
table tab where x is the input and y the output. The detail of their implementation is given
in section World3 system.py.
The class Hypergraph represents the entire graph which is composed of different nodes de-
scribed above. It takes as parameters the version of World3 desired and eventually nodes already
created. Its attributes are a dictionary of its nodes(nodes), its version(version), the number
maximum of rank(nbrank), a list of nodes ordered by their rank(nodesrank) and a list of its
NodeStocks(stocks). Several methods are implemented so each of them are explained below:

38
 • add node(self, node): add node to the graph.
• add nodes(self, nodes): add all nodes given in the list nodes to the graph.
• add edge(self, f, x target, x s): create an edge between x target and x s described by the
function f.
• eval(self, ts): compute the value of all nodes in the nodesrank.
• run(self, it, ft, ts): start the execution of the code by computing values for all time steps.
• sub graph vertex(self, cond): return the list of name of nodes respecting the condition cond
as well as a list of the rank of their predecessors and another with the rank of their successors
• set rank(self): sort a list of nodes by their rank(nodesrank) and compute nbrank

16 World3 system.py
The graph given in the chapter Equations of World3 is implemented here using classes of World3 dynamic.py.
If you want to create a new scenario, I suggest you to give a number to this scenario and to modify
World3 system.py as it is done for the existing ones. In World3, many functions are PWL so the
following function is used:
Algorithm 1: Function ftab
Data: x ∈ Z;
x represents node in input and tab is a given table;
Result: y = ftab (x) = f (x, tab)
if tab[0][0] ≥ x then
return tab[0][1]
else if tab[−1][0] ≤ x then
return tab[−1][1]
else
i ← 0;
while i < length(tab) do
if tab[i][0] ≥ x ≥ tab[i + 1][0] then
tab[i+1][1]−tab[i][1]
coef ← tab[i+1][0]−tab[i][0]
;
return tab[i][1] + coef × (x − tab[i][0])
else
i ← i + 1;
end

end

end

39
 In practice, ftab can be seen like a function which takes a constant table and a x, search where
is x in this table and return the linear interpolation of the corresponding outputs. If x is out of
range, the bound of the table will be returned.

17 World3 plot.py
All nodes have also an historic which can be showed at the end of the execution of the program.
World3 plot.py contains functions which allow to observe evolution of variables in the way it is
done in ”The Limits to Growth”. All backgrounds are taken from this book and from ”The Limits
to Growth: The 30-Year Update”. They are available from scenario 1 to 10.
It is also possible to plot several other variables on the same graph with the multiple plot function
or each one on a separate graph with single plot.

18 World3 run.py
This file is the one to execute. You can choose the version of World3, the initial time, the final
one, time step and the scenario you desire to execute. Each run is, by default, printed with the
result obtained in ”The Limits to Growth” in background, an activated grid and without saving.
But each of these parameters can be easily modified.

40
Acknowledgements and Bibliography

Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Alexandre Gondran for his supervision all along this project and for the time
to he gave to answer and to debate on issues I had. I would also acknowledge Estelle Malavolti
who have allowed me to have a better comprehension of the different economic models. Finally,
I would thank François Huchet for proofreading my code and for his advice to make it better.

Bibliography
[1] J. W. Forrester, World dynamics. Wright-Allen Press Cambridge, 1971.

[2] D. H. Meadows and Club of Rome, eds., The Limits to growth: a report for the Club of Rome’s
project on the predicament of mankind. New York: Universe Books, 1972.

[3] D. H. Meadows, J. Randers, and D. L. Meadows, The limits to growth: the 30-year update.
White River Junction, Vt: Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 2004.

[4] J. D. Hunter, “Matplotlib: A 2d graphics environment,” Computing in Science & Engineering,

vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 90–95, 2007.

[5] M. Jochaux-Du-Plessix, “Analyse du modèle world3: sensibilité, dynamique, et pistes

d’évolution,” INRIA, 2021. https://hal.inria.fr/hal-02434683v2/document.

[6] S. Fortmann-Roe, “World3 model, interactive graph,” https://insightmaker.com/insight/

2pCL5ePy8wWgr4SN8BQ4DD/The-World3-Model-Classic-World-Simulation.

[7] F. E. Cellier and S. Fabricius, “SystemDynamics - World3,” Apr. 2021. https://build.

openmodelica.org/Documentation/SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.html.

[8] C. Vanwynsberghe, “PyWorld3 - The World3 model revisited in Python,” Nov. 2021. https:
//hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03414394.

[9] R. Pasqualino, A. W. Jones, I. Monasterolo, and A. Phillips, “Understanding global systems

today — a calibration of the world3-03 model between 1995 and 2012,” Sustainability, 2015.
www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability.

41
Acronyms and Appendix

AHL Assimilation Half-Life

AHL70 Assimilation Half-Life in 1970

AHLM Assimilation Half-Life Multiplier

AI Agricultural Inputs

AII Initial Agricultural Inputs

AIOPC Average Industrial Output Per Capita

AIOPCI Initial Average Industrial Output Per Capita

AIPH Agricultural Inputs Per Hectare

AL Arable Land

ALAI Average Lifetime of Agricultural Inputs

ALGGHA Arable Land in Gigahectare

ALGHA Absorption Land in Gigahectare

ALI Initial Arable Land

ALIC Average Lifetime of Industrial Capital

ALL Average Life of Land

ALLN Average Life of Land Normal

ALSC Average Lifetime of Service Capital

AMTI Agricultural Materials Toxicity Index

B Births per year

CAI Current Agricultural Inputs

CBR Crude Birth Rate

CDR Crude Death Rate

CIO Consumed Industrial Output

CIOPC Consumed Industrial Output Per Capita

CMI Crowding Multiplier from Industry

42
CMPLE Compensatory Multiplier from Perceived Life Expectancy

COPM Capital Output Pollution Multiplier

COYM Capital Output Yield Multiplier

CUF Capital Utilization Fraction

D Deaths per year

D1 Deaths per year in population aged from 0 to 14 years

D2 Deaths per year in population aged from 15 to 44 years

D3 Deaths per year in population aged from 45 to 64 years

D4 Deaths per year in population older than age 65

DCFS Desired Completed Family Size

DCFSN Desired Completed Family Size Normal

DCPH Development Cost Per Hectare

DFR Desired Food Ratio

DIOPC Delayed Industrial Output Per Capita

DNRUR Delayed Non-renewable Resources Usage Rate

DPOLX Desired Index of persistent Pollution

DTF Desired Total Fertility

EHSPC Effective Health Services Per Capita

EHSPCI Initial Effective Health Services Per Capita

EI Education Index

F Food

FALM Fraction of inputs Allocated to Land Maintenance

FCAOR Fertility Control Allocated to Obtaining Resources

FCAORTM Fertility Control Allocated to Obtaining Resources switch Time

FCAPC Fertility Control Allocations Per Capita

FCE Fertility Control Effectiveness

FCEST Fertility Control Effectiveness Set Time

FCFPC Fertility Control Facilities Per Capita

FIALD Fraction of Inputs Allocated to Land Development

FIE Family Income Expectation

43
FIOAA Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Agriculture

FIOAC Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Consumption

FIOACC Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Consumption Constant

FIOACV Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Consumption Variable

FIOAI Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Industry

FIOAS Fraction of Industrial Output Allocated to Services

FIPM Fraction of Inputs as Persistent Materials

FM Fertility Multiplier

FOA Fraction of Output in Agriculture

FOI Fraction Of Output in Industry

FOS Fraction Of Output in Service

FPC Fraction Per Capita

FPU Fraction of Population Urban

FR Food Ratio

FRPM Fraction of Resources as Persistent Materials

FRSN Family Response to Social Norm

FSAFC Fraction of Services Allocated to Fertility Control

FSDP Food Shortage Perception Delay

FT Final Time

GDPI Gross Domestic Product Index

GDPPC Gross Domestic Product Per Capita

GDPU Gross Domestic Product Unit

GHAH Gigahectare per Hectare

HEF Human Ecological Footprint

HSAPC Health Services Allocations Per Capita

HSID Health Services Impact Delay

HUP Hectare per Unit of Pollution

HWI Human Welfare Index

IC Industrial Capital

ICDR Industrial Capital Depreciation Rate

44
ICI Initial Industrial Capital

ICIR Industrial Capital Investment Rate

ICOR Industrial Capital-Output Ratio

ICOR2T Industrial Capital-Output Ratio Technology Transmission

IET Industrial Equilibrium Time

IEAT Income Expectation Averaging Time

IFPC Indicated Food Per Capita

ILF Inherent Land Fertility

IMEF Industrial Materials Emission Factor

IMTI Industrial Materials Toxicity Index

IO Industrial Output

IO70 Industrial Output in 1970

IOPC Industrial Output Per Capita

IOPCD Industrial Output Per Capita Desired

ISOPC Indicated Service Output Per Capita

IT Initial Time

J Job

JPH Jobs Per Hectare

JPICU Jobs Per Industrial Capital Unit

JPSCU Jobs Per Service Capital Unit

LDR Land Development Rate

LE Life Expectancy

LEI Life Expectancy Index

LER Land Erosion Rate

LEN Life Expectancy Normal

LF Labor Force

LFC Land Fraction Cultivated

LFD Land Fertility Degradation

LFDR Land Fertility Degradation Rate

LFERT Land Fertility

45
LFERTI Initial Land Fertility

LFH Land Fraction Harvest

LFPF Labor Force Participation Fraction

LFR Land Fertility Regeneration

LFRT Land Fertility Regeneration Time

LLMY Land Life Multiplier from Yield

LLMYTM Land Life Multiplier from Yield switch Time

LMC Lifetime Multiplier from Crowding

LMF Lifetime Multiplier from Food

LMHS Lifetime Multiplier from Health Services

LMP Lifetime Multiplier from persistant Polution

LPD Lifetime Perception Delay

LRUI Land Removal from Urban-Industrial use

LUF Labor Utilization Fraction

LUFD Labor Utilization Fraction Delayed

LUFDI Initial Labor Utilization Fraction Delayed

LUFDT Labor Utilization Fraction Delay Time

LY Land Yield

LYCM Land Yield Change Multiplier

LYF Land Yield Factor

LYMAP Land Yield Multiplier from Air Pollution

LYMC Land Yield Multiplier from Capital

LYTD Land Yield Technology Development

LYTDR Land Yield Technology Development Rate

M1 Mortality rate in population aged from 0 to 14 years

M2 Mortality rate in population aged from 15 to 44 years

M3 Mortality rate in population aged from 45 to 64 years

M4 Mortality rate in population older than age 65

MAT1 Maturation rate of 14 years old people

MAT2 Maturation rate of 44 years old people

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MAT3 Maturation rate of 64 years old people

MLYMC Marginal Land Yield Multiplier from Capital

MPAI Marginal Productivity of Agricultural Inputs

MPLD Marginal Productivity of Land Development

MTF Maximum Total Fertility

MTFN Maximum Total Fertility Normal

NFC Need for Fertility Control

NR Non-renewable Resources

NRATE Non-renewable Resource Technology Improvement Rate

NRCM Non-renewable Resources Change Multiplier

NRFR Non-renewable Resources Fraction Remaining

NRI Initial Non-renewable Resources

NRTD Non-renewable Resources Technology Development

NRTDR Non-renewable Resources Technology Development Rate

NRUF Non-renewable Resources Usage Factor

NRUR Non-renewable Resources Usage Rate

OY One Year

P1 Population aged from 0 to 14 years

P1I Initial population aged from 0 to 14 years at the year 1900

P2 Population aged from 15 to 44 years

P2I Initial population aged from 15 to 44 years at the year 1900

P3 Population aged from 45 to 64 years

P3I Initial population aged from 45 to 64 years at the year 1900

P4 Population older than age 65

P4I Initial population older than age 65 at the year 1900

PAL Potentially Arable Land

PALI Initial Potentially Arable Land

PALT Potentially Arable Land Total

PCRUM Per Capita Resources Usage Multiplier

PET Population Equilibrium Time

47
PFR Perceived Food Ratio

PFRI Initial Perceived Food Ratio

PJAS Potential Jobs in Agricultural Sector

PJIS Potential Jobs in Industrial Sector

PJSS Potential Jobs in Service Sector

PL Processing Loss

PLE Perceived Life Expectancy

PLINID Pollution Intensity Indicator

POF Price Of Food

POLGFM Pollution Control Technology Change Multiplier

POP Total Population

PPAPR Persistent Pollution Appearance Rate

PPASR Persistent Pollution Assimilation Rate

PPGAO Persistent Pollution Generated by Agricultural Output

PPGF Persistent Pollution Generation Factor

PPGIO Persistent Pollution Generated by Industrial Output

PPGR Persistent Pollution Generation Rate

PPOL Persistent Pollution

PPOL70 Persistent Pollution in 1970

PPOLI Initial Persistent Pollution

PPOLX Index of Persistent Pollution

PPTD Persistent Pollution Transmission Delay

PTD Pollution Technology Development

PTDR Pollution Technology Development Rate

PYEAR New policy Year

RESINT Resource usage Intensity

RHGDP Real Highest Gross Domestic Product

RLGDP Real Lowest Gross Domestic Product

RLT Reproduction Lifetime

SAD Social Adjustment Delay

48
SC Service Capital

SCDR Service Capital Depreciation Rate

SCI Initial Service Capital

SCIR Service Capital Investment Rate

SCOR Service Capital-Output Rate

SD Social Discount

SFPC Subsistence Food Per Capita

SFSN Social Family Size Norm

SO Service Output

SOPC Service Output Per Capita

TAI Total Agricultural Investment

TDD Technology Development Delay

TF Total Fertility

TL Total Land

TS Time Step

UAGI Unit of Agricultural Inputs per Hectare

UIL Urban-Industrial Land

UILDT Urban-Industrial Land Development Time

ULGHA Urban Land in Gigahectare

UILI Initial Urban-Industrial Land

UILPC Urban-Industrial Land Per Capita

UILR Urban-Industrial Land Required

UP Unit of Person

ZPGT Zero Population Growth Time

49
 Annex 1

Figure 1: World3 divided in 5 different parts

In this figure, World3 is divided in 5 parts: Agriculture, Capital, Population, Non-renewable

Resources and Pollution. All variables which are used in a part and come from another one are
written with the number of equation within they are used.

Annex 2
A global representation of World33 is the following graph:

3
Extracted from ”Understanding Global Systems Today — A Calibration of the World3-03 Model between 1995
and 2012” [9]

50
Figure 1: DYNAMO diagram of the 1972 World3 model