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MACROECONOMICS - Toàn B Ghi Chép

The document discusses macroeconomics, focusing on significant global events since 2020, key macroeconomic variables like GDP and GNP, and the importance of understanding economic cycles and policies. It explains concepts such as GDP measurement, the difference between nominal and real GDP, and the role of aggregate demand and supply in the economy. Additionally, it touches on fiscal policy and the Keynesian model, emphasizing the relationship between aggregate expenditure and economic output.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
8 views22 pages

MACROECONOMICS - Toàn B Ghi Chép

The document discusses macroeconomics, focusing on significant global events since 2020, key macroeconomic variables like GDP and GNP, and the importance of understanding economic cycles and policies. It explains concepts such as GDP measurement, the difference between nominal and real GDP, and the role of aggregate demand and supply in the economy. Additionally, it touches on fiscal policy and the Keynesian model, emphasizing the relationship between aggregate expenditure and economic output.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MACROECONOMICS

1) Outstanding world events since 2020

- Covid 19 pandemic

- War Russia – Ukraine

- Energy crisis

- High inflation

- High interest rate

- Reduce VAT

 economy rate

- GDP

2) Subject objective

- Familiarize with important macro variables (GDP, GNP,…)

- Introduce to basic macroeconomic model to explain the business cycle

- Introduce to significant macroeconomic policies


INTRODUCTION

1) The birth of macroecomics


 Economics  Scarcity  Micro/Macro
 Foundational problem
o What
o How/How much
o To whom
2) What is macroeconomics
 Its study: The whole economy
 Contents for researching
o National yield: the most important measure of a nation’s achievement
(GDP, GNP)  indicate the value of goods and services that a country
produces
o Inflation: is an increase in the overall level of the prices
o Unemployment
o International transactions: export – import
3) Positive versus normative analysis
 Positive statements: are statement that attempt to describe the world as it is
o Called descriptive analysis: phương pháp phân tích thực chứng, hay là mô
tả lại…
o Ex: In April 2020, the price of oil sharply decreased at the level of -
40USD/oilcan because less transportation are used and the supply of oil
increase
 Normative statement: are statements about how the world should be
o Called prescriptive analysis
4) Macroeconomics system
 Inputs  Black Box  Outputs
o Inputs:
 External events (biến ngoại sinh): include uneconomic events but
have impacts on economy such as: weather, disaster, war,…
 Internal events (biến nội sinh): include behaviours or management
tools of government such as: fiscal policy, monetary policy,…
o Black box (hộp đen kinh tế): where the interaction between AD and AS
happens: nơi các hoạt động tổng cung và tổng cầu xảy ra (quan trọng nhất)

 quyết định sự cân bằng kinh tế  ảnh hưởng đến output

o Outputs: economic growth, employment, trade balance,…


5) Objectives and management tools
 Goals
o Effective
o Fair
o Stable
o Growth
CHAPTER 2: Measuring a nation’s income

I) GDP
1) GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
 Definition: Tổng sản phẩm quốc nội
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services
produced within a country in a given period of time
o Market value: Output is valued at market prices
 Market price: Supply price giao Demand price: là giá người bán sẵn
sàng bán và người mua sẵn sàng mua, phản ánh được quy luật thị
trường và quy luật cung cầu
o All:
 Underground economy:
 Self-sufficient activity:
 Illegal activity: include goods abandoned by the
governments: drugs, guns, human, prostitude (mại dâm) 
some countries still legalize these because of the high demand
and huge profit

 e-commerce is legalized but not include in the GDP  đem lại lợi ích cho trade but
the country cannot manage so not include in GDP

o Final goods and services: Are the ones which are not used to produced
another goods, and only sold to final consumers.
o Produced: includes goods and services currently produced, not transactions
involving goods produced in the past.
o Within a country: It measures the value of production within the geographic
confines of a country.

Ex 1: fibre  cotton  cloth  clothes  final customers

 Final goods: clothes


 Intermediate goods: fibre, cotton, cloth

Ex 2: 2m of cloth  T-shirt

1m of cloth  T-shirt

 1m in surplus
 firm stop making T-shirt this year

 How we treat this 1m cloth


o Put into inventory and not used anymore  final goods

Ex 3:

1. Supermarket  Sugar  sweet soup  eat  sugar is final goods


2. Supermarket  sugar  sweet soup  sell to final customer  sugar is
intermediate goods

Ex 4: Car (manufactured in 1/20222)  sell to A (6/2022)  sell to B (1/2024)

 produced in 2022  contribute to GDP 2022

 sell to B in 2024  not contribute to GDP 2024

2) Measuring GDP
a) The model of money-goods circular in a simple economy

 2 members: firm and household


 Assumption:
o There is no role of government and foreign transactions
o The economy has no savings
 Circular flow program
o Expenditure of buyer  income of seller
o To measure
 Total expenditure
 Total income

 value added appeal

Seller  buyer

Income  expenditure

b) Expenditure Approach
 Compoments of expenditure
o Consumption (C): the value of all G&S (goods and services) bought by
households
 Durable goods
 Non-durable goods
 Services
o Investment (I): Investment spending by businesses and households
includes:
 Business fixed investment: spending on plant and equipment that
firms will use to produce other goods & services  use these items
for a long time (laptops, machinary,…)
 Residential fixed investmentL spending on housing units by
consumers and landlords
 Inventory investment the change in the value of all firms’
inventories

?: can buy stocks or put aside money into commercial bank be considered as investment?

 These activities are not investment because không tạo thêm G&S cho kinh tế xã hội

 Government purchase (G):


o The spending on goods and services by local, state and federal governments
(schools,

?: is subsidy (trợ cấp) for unemployment or disabled people considered as a government


purchase
 GDP means produce G&S  subsidy is not government purchase cuz not produce
G&S

o G excludes transfer payments

?: Gov trợ cấp 2 triệu cho A, sau đó A lấy tiền đi mua quần áo

 if goods and clothes are domestically produced  tính vào GDP

?: mua apartment thì có được tính vào GDP không

 no cuz it’s an old item

 Net exports (NX): Exports minus imports

? Why  vì chỉ tính sản phẩm trong nước

 C: Consumption
 I: Gross investment ( I = Net investment + Dep)

 tổng đầu tư = đầu tư mua mới + sửa những sản phẩm cũ

 G: government purchase
 NX: net export
c) Income/Factor cost approach
 Income of household: wages, interest
 Income of firms: revenue, profits
 Income of gov: taxes from households and firms ( = Td + Ti)
o Taxes from household: personal income taxes (direct tasks/Td)
o Taxes from firms: corporate income taxes (special tasks/Ti)
o However, Td k được tính vào income of gov  trong income của
households là có Td rồi nên k tính Td thêm một lần nữa
 W: Wages
 I: interest
 R: Rent
 Pr: profit
 Dep: khấu hao tài sản cố định (Gross – Net)
 Ti: indirect tax

 expenditure approach = C + I + G + NX = 200+150+100+50 = 500

 income approach = W + i + R + Pr + Dep + Ti = 230+25+35+60+100+50 = 500

d) Value added approach


 A firm’s value added is: the value of its output minus the value of the
intermediate goods the firm used to produce that output.
 GDP is counted by summing up VA of all firms in the economy together.
 VA stage 1: $1.00

 VA stage 2: $3.00 - $1.00 = $2.00

 VA stage 3: $6.00 - $3.00 = $3.00

 GDP: 1+2+3=$6.00

3) Real vs Nominal GDP


 Nominal GDP: measures these values using current prices.

 Real GDP: measure these values using the prices of a base year
II) GNP
1) GNP – Gross National Product (Tổng sản phẩm quốc dân)
 GNP is the total value of all final goods and services produced by a nation’s
citizens in a given period of time
 GNP vs GDP
o Similarities
o Difference
 GNP: depend on the nationality ( miễn là người việt nam làm ra, dù
ở nước ngoài vẫn được tính)
 GDP: depend on territory ( just trong nước)

 GNP = GDP + NFA (NFA: Net Factor Income Abroad: thu nhập nhân tố ròng từ
nước ngoài hay yếu tố xuất khẩu – yếu tố nhập khẩu)

o NFA > 0: GNP > GDP


o NFA = 0: GNP = GDP
o NFA < 0: GNP < GDP

VD: Brazil: NFA = -4.0  4% thu nhập ở Brazil sẽ được chuyển ra nước ngoài, which
means that Brazil attract a lot of investment from foreigner: the US,...  develop GDP
but income finally transfer to foreign country instead of staying within a country

 đừng thấy tốc độ tăng trưởng tăng mà zui vì đây là giai đoạn đầu của tăng trưởng và
phụ thuộc nhiều vào FDI (đầu tư nước ngoài), còn để tăng trưởng sustainable thì không
chắc  chính phủ tập trung nuôi các tập đoàn chaebol trong nước để tăng GDP tự thân

2) The consumer price index


a) Definition
 CPI: is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical
consumer (là một thước đo chi phí tổng quát của các hàng hóa và dịch vụ được
mua bởi một người tiêu dùng điển hình). It is used to
o Track changes in the household’s cost of living.
o Adjust many contracts for inflation (i.e. “COLAs”)
o Allow comparisons of dollar figures from different years

VD: in Covid 19  AS decrease - AD increase  CPI tăng  trong rổ hàng hóa tính
CPI thì có một hàng hóa chiếm tỉ trọng lớn là F&B
 Difference in objective and scope
o GDP
o GPI
 Differences in time GSO select calculating
o CPI: select “fixed basket” in base year (number of goods in base year)
o GDP: G&S used to calculate GDP are updated yearly
3) Correcting economic variables for the effect of inflation
 Price indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar
figures from different times.

 money of USD is different in different times  cần chuyển về 01 năm

 $800.000 < $931,579  giảm

4) Indexation (Chỉ số trượt giá)


 When some dollar amount is automatically corrected for inflation by law or
contract, the amount is said to be indexed for inflation.

VD: 5.000 USD per month (2023)  inflation  tăng 10% per month (2024)

5) Real and Nominal Interest rates


 Interest (lãi suất) represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the
past.
 The nominal interest rate is the interest rate usually reported and not corrected for
inflation.
o It is the interest rate that a bank pays.
 The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for the effects of
inflation
Chapter 3: AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY

I) Aggregate demand

1) The aggregate demand (ad) curve


 The aggregate - demand curve shows the quantity of G&S that households, firms,
the Government and customer abroad want to buy at each price level.
 Formula: Y=C+I+G+NX
o G: fixed by the government policy
o C: consumption
o I: investment
2) The wealth affect (P and C)
 P change  Consumption change  AD change
 P decrease + salary increase  feel wealthier  consumption increase  AD
tăng
3) The interest – rate effect (P and I)
 P reduce  money demand reduce  tiền nhàn rỗi  put money in banks, stock,
…  I increase  AD increase
4) The exchange – rate effect (P and NX)
 P decrease  i (lãi suất) decrease (Ius < Ivn)  capital outflow  chuyển hướng
đầu tư sang VN  S usd (cung đô la) increase  giá đô la giảm  NX increase
5) Why AD curve might shift
 Any event that changes C, I, G or NX – except a change in P – will shift the AD
curve

 Change in C
o Stock market boom/crash
o Tax hikes/cuts
 Changes in I
o Firms buy new factories
o Expectations, optimism/pessimism, monetary policy, interest rates.
 Changes in G
o Government policies  đồng nhân dân tệ rẻ hơn  đổi USD thành CNY
nhiều hơn  hàng hoá TQ rẻ hơn so với người nước ngoài  mua nhiều
hơn
II) The aggregate supply (AS) curve
1) The AS curve
 The aggregate – supply curve shows the total quantity of goods and services that
firms produce and sell at any given price level.
 In the long run, the AS curve is vertical because
o with P1  natural rate of output
o with P2  natural rate of output

 output of the economy does not depend on the price; others affects output are capital
(K), natural resources, labor (L) and technology (T)

o Changes in L
 Immigration (VN)
 Baby boomers retire (Japan)  born < death  seriously lack of
labor; 60% firms closed due to no successor
 In the short run, the AS curve is upward sloping.
2) The effect of shift in SRAS

 Event: oil prices rise (assume LRAS constant)


o Increase costs, shifts SRAS.
o SRAS shifts left.
o SR eq’m at point B. P higher, Y lower, u higher. From A to B, stagflation, a
period of falling output and rising prices

 inflation and recession

 What policymakers do
o Doanh nghiệp:
 Reduce labor’s salary  company in long run can hire more labor
 increase AS  shift to the right  Y
o Government will immediately involve
 Impact on the aggregate demand  AD curve shift to the right  Q
continue to decrease  trade off with high inflation in the economy
 If the government want to reduce inflation  higher recession

VD: oil price in 2023  P1 P2  production price increase  AS decrease  shift to
the left  France choose to decrease AD (tăng lãi suất ngân hàng để khiến người dân cut
consumption để gửi tiền ngân hàng) to cut off inflation; after that gov quay lại tăng AD
để giảm recession
NOTE: nhớ làm hai bài tập sau slide
CHAPTER 4: AGGREGATE DEMAND AND FISCAL POLICY

1) Keynesian model
 Price & wages unchanged in the short-run because of menu price and hợp đồng
lao động
 Many resources have not used in the economy  tổng cung vẫn đáp ứng được nhu
cầu của nền kinh tế  source of AS is horizontal.
o Imply that AD will decide the output.

 Exclude the impact of the monetary market on goods market (trong nền kinh tế có
nhiều thị trường khác nhau và liên quan nhau  bỏ qua những cái này)
2) Aggregate expenditure
 AE: refers to aggregate planned expenditure on consumption, Investment, public
G&S and net export.

 The starting point is far from 0  autonomous expenditure of the economy


 What will decide the equilibrium output in the short - run when the economy still
has unused resources?
o GDP = National income = Y
o AE (tổng chi tiêu) = GDP (tổng thu nhập) = Y
3) The macroeconomics equilibrium in the short-run based on the AE model

 AE
 Đường phân giác 45 độ  tổng thu nhập = tổng chi tiêu  A is equi point
 UI (hàng tồn kho ngoài dự kiến)  cắt giảm sản lượng xuống Y2  DY2 >EY2
 vẫn còn dư thừa hàng hóa tuy nhiên là ít hơn  cơ chế điều chỉnh về Y0
4) Consumption
 C is the total expenditure for final goods and services of households.
 Some factors affect C:
o Current disposable income
o Wealth (stocks, bonds,...)
o Estimated income in future (inherit)
o Social factors (psychology, living custom,...)
 YD: disposable income
 𝐶 ngang : consumption volume does not depend on income (minimum
consumption or autonomous consumption)
 MPC: marginal propensity to consume (0<MPC<1)

5) Investment
 The spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures, including new
housing.
 Some factors affect I:
o Demands for goods created by new investment: D -> I
o Investment costs: i => I
o Investors’ expectation (VD: whether growth rate is high or low)
 Investment Function: I = 𝐼 ngang
6) The equilibrium output in the simple economy
 Expenditure multiplier reflects changes in yield when autonomous expenditure
changes in 1 unit.

VD: mua 1 ly trà sữa 20k  hiệu ứng lan truyền  Y > 20k

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