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value, meaning and, above all, empirical relevance to the practice of speculation.
Speculation is rescued from the hands of the speculators!
Andrew Barry, Professor of Human Geography, University College London
Speculative Research is a truly unique collection that offers much needed inspira-
tion for thinking beyond present conditions and the futures they seem to make
impossible. It invites us to engage with a generative tradition of speculative
thought that has yet to fulfil its radical practical potential. The stimulating contri-
butions to this volume offer remarkable examples of what thinking speculatively
can mean in encounters with specific research fields and problems – faithful to
the empirical but not bounded by it, an adventurous yet careful inquiry. In com-
posing this volume, Wilkie, Savransky and Rosengarten have achieved both a
generous prolongation and innovative experimentation with speculative thought.
Maria Puig de la Bellacasa, Associate Professor of Science, Technology and
Organisation, University of Leicester
The Culture, Economy and the Social series is committed to innovative con-
temporary, comparative and historical work on the relations between social, cul-
tural and economic change. It publishes empirically-based research that is
theoretically informed, that critically examines the ways in which social, cultural
and economic change is framed and made visible, and that is attentive to per-
spectives that tend to be ignored or side-lined by grand theorising or epochal
accounts of social change. The series addresses the diverse manifestations of
contemporary capitalism, and considers the various ways in which the ‘social’,
‘the cultural’ and ‘the economic’ are apprehended as tangible sites of value and
practice. It is explicitly comparative, publishing books that work across discipli-
nary perspectives, cross-culturally, or across different historical periods.
The series is actively engaged in the analysis of the different theoretical tradi-
tions that have contributed to the development of the ‘cultural turn’ with a view to
clarifying where these approaches converge and where they diverge on a particular
issue. It is equally concerned to explore the new critical agendas emerging from
current critiques of the cultural turn: those associated with the descriptive turn for
example. Our commitment to interdisciplinarity thus aims at enriching theoretical
and methodological discussion, building awareness of the common ground that has
emerged in the past decade, and thinking through what is at stake in those
approaches that resist integration to a common analytical model.
Series titles include:
Part i
Speculative propositions 19
Part III
Speculative techniques 111
Index 228
Figures
The future has become problematic. Indeed, the question of how heterogeneous
actors engage futures, what intellectual and practical strategies they put into play
and what the implications of such strategies are, have become crucial scientific,
technological and societal concerns (e.g. Adam & Groves, 2007; Brown,
Rappert, & Webster, 2000; van Lente 1993). Nevertheless, as Valéry (1988:
195) also noted, our attitude towards the future remains fundamentally inad-
equate, for ‘we enter the future backwards’. In the social sciences, much of the
concern with futures testifies to Valéry’s diagnosis. Until recently, futures had
been largely addressed from the point of view of the ways in which societies
deal with their threats and uncertainties. According to sociologists of risk (e.g.
Beck, 1992, 2008), for example, risk analysis, calculation and the management
of uncertainties have become the defining features of late modernity, where
The lure of possible futures 3
hazards and risks have proliferated as an upshot of modern ideals of progress
notably including social and economic processes of industrialisation, urbanisa-
tion and globalisation. In this view, and in contrast to the early modern era where
threats and dangers posed to societies were largely the outcome of natural
causes, human practices and inventions now figure as the primary sources of
risk-generation as well as the primary sites of responsibility for their coordin-
ation, minimisation and amelioration (Rosa, Renn, & McCright, 2014).
Other theoretical approaches to social futures have challenged both the epis-
temological and historiographical assumptions that underpin the concept of the
‘risk society’ (Adam, Beck, & Van Loon, 2000). In addition to socio-cultural
(Douglas, 1992) and systems theories of risk (Luhmann, 1993), the critical social
constructivism of the ‘governmentality’ school has approached the question of
risk and the calculation of futures not as a logic inherent to an age of proliferat-
ing uncertainties, but as a neoliberal rationality of government that displaces its
focus of attention from the disciplining of individuals to the management of
entire populations. In this view, new modes of neoliberal governance operate
through the institution of, and reliance on, an indefinite number of precautionary
factors that seek to measure, organise, tame and influence the conduct of the
population (Baker & Simon, 2002; Miller & Rose, 2008; O’Malley, 2004). Not-
withstanding their theoretical and historiographical differences, such approaches
seem to share the sense that ‘risk’ and ‘uncertainty’ – but also unacknowledged
‘indeterminacy’ (Wynne, 1992) – constitute the defining keystones by which
contemporary societies conceptualise and negotiate the relationship between
present and futures. Risks are said to pervade all aspects of life, from financial
and insurance practices (Baker & Simon, 2002, de Goede, 2004), the politics of
security and war (Ericson & Doyle, 2004, Larner & Walters, 2004), environ-
mental forecasting, regulation and disaster prevention (Lash, Szerszynski, &
Wynne, 2000) and scientific and technological innovation and governance
(Flynn & Bellaby, 2007; Kerr & Cunningham-Burley, 2000), to processes of
governmental and individual decision-making and regulation regarding health
(Petersen & Wilkinson, 2008), education (Brynin, 2013) and everyday life
(Tulloch & Lupton, 2003).
The lesson that such accounts yield, however, is more paradoxical than might
appear at first sight. As many of their proponents also attest, and as has become
particularly salient in Science and Technology Studies (STS) and in the so-called
‘Sociology of Expectations’ (Brown et al., 2000, van Lente, 1993), techniques of
forecasting and risk-management do not operate merely to represent and know
the future. Such studies detail how, for instance, the hopes and expectations
associated with biotechnology and genetic engineering, the institutional deploy-
ment of future forecasting techniques such as Delphi and Foresight (De Laat,
2000), the financial commoditisation of the future and the identification and
indemnification of risks and uncertainty associated with modern industrial
society, and even the routine material practices of the designers of computational
technology (Wilkie, 2010), such as prototyping, become part and parcel of
routine scientific, technological and policy practices. Insofar as they inform
4 M. Savransky et al.
decision-making processes through authoritative knowledge-claims (Selin, 2008)
or through the construction of expectations about futures (Brown & Michael
2003; Michael & Rosengarten 2013; Wilkie & Michael 2009), such practices
orient social action in the present. Thus, more than providing reliable knowledge
of the future, these practices become factors in the constitution of a yet-to-come,
a not-yet that, as we have intimated above, too often strives to coincide with the
‘already’ on which it is based.
Part of the reason for this is that the logics and practices by which futures are
reduced to forecasting and risk-management themselves presuppose that futures
are ultimately a prolongation of the present. In effect, they are bound to a logic
of anticipation whereby future uncertainties and contingencies are calculated,
represented and said to be tamed through statistical and modelling techniques
that make predictions about likely future scenarios based on knowledge of the
present (Adam & Groves 2007). What allows for these probabilistic modes of
forecasting is the presupposition that time moves linearly, along a modern arrow
of progress, such that the present conditions upon which calculation are drawn
will be conserved in the future state which calculative inferences are supposed to
provide information about. Crucially, however, as historians and philosophers of
science and time have shown (Bergson, 2002; Grosz, 2004; Hacking, 1990;
Whitehead, 1967), when engaging with futures, it matters what we take time to
be. It matters whether we think of time as extending over a metrical arrow of
progress, or whether we engage with it, for instance, in the manner of a handker-
chief, to be spread, crumpled and torn, forming a topological image of time
(Serres & Latour, 1995: 60). Resisting the modern arrow of time matters because
it enables us to consider temporality as it is formed through its own patterns of
becoming rather than through the imposition of a preformatted geometry. It
matters, moreover, because it enables us to pay attention to, and experiment
with, the very processes of crumpling, folding and ‘tearing’ time, and not just to
their culmination.
This edited collection takes stock of many of the lessons afforded by the
aforementioned traditions of social and cultural research on ‘futures’ and tempo-
rality, but it simultaneously departs from them in a fundamental sense. While
such studies evince a preoccupation with the temporal patterns and dynamics at
play in shaping developments in science and technology, in politics and eco-
nomics, in education and art, and so on, common to their preoccupations is an
approach to futures that regards them as yet another (past) empirical object, to be
illuminated through the customary methods and techniques of ‘social’ and ‘cul-
tural’ analysis and explanation. Speculative Research, by contrast, is not prim-
arily about how ‘others’ imagine, manage, calculate, pre-empt, secure, know or
speculate about, the future. Throughout the different chapters that compose this
collection, possible futures are never simply ‘objects’ of knowledge, to be con-
quered by the conceptual and practical tools and methods of the various discip-
lines and approaches they espouse. To the extent that these diverse contributions
share a common concern, it is the sense that, to paraphrase Marilyn Strathern
(1992), it matters what futures we use to cultivate other futures with. In other
The lure of possible futures 5
words, it matters how we enter the future, what senses of futurity we bring into
play, which modes of relating to the not-yet we enable knowing and thinking
practices to nurture. Thus, rather than objects of knowledge or thought to be
captured by a backward-walking present, possible futures are here engaged as
vectors of risk and creative experimentation. It is futures themselves that, when-
ever one takes the risk of cultivating them, can escape the impasses of the
present, and lure our own practices of thinking, knowing and feeling to unfore-
seen possibilities. Thus, what each of the chapters in this collection attempts,
with the means and challenges of its own situated engagement, is to take the risk
of experiencing a mutation of the commitments, sensibilities and constraints that
characterise their own research practices – as well as other practices with which
they are concerned – as they become lured by the possibility of futures that are
more than the mere extension of the present.
Rather than structuring the event around individual presentations and the typical
turns of questions and answers upon reception of the papers, we assembled a
programme structured entirely around responses and discussions. That is, each
one of the participants was assigned with the task of constructively responding
to two other papers, such that each paper received, in turn, responses by two
other contributors. After each round of responses, the entire group would join in
for an expanded discussion on the emergent questions, possibilities, challenges
and connections that they saw emerging from the propositions that the papers
developed.
The second workshop, by contrast, involved no papers at all. Smaller, more
experimental still, this forum gathered a number of participants from the first
workshop and some others in an informal setting, to spend an entire day freely
discussing the stakes of cultivating a speculative sensibility to the possible, and
of thinking of research in terms of possibilities, prompted by the following
questions:
truth and becoming and assigns to the statement of what one believes to be
true the responsibility not to hinder becoming: not to collide with estab-
lished sentiments, so as to try to open them to what their established identity
let them to refuse, combat, misunderstand.
(Ibid.)
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Meillassoux, Q. (2008). After finitude: An essay on the necessity of contingency. London:
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Melchior-Bonnet, S. (2001). The mirror: A history. New York, NY; London: Routledge.
16 M. Savransky et al.
Michael, M., & Rosengarten, M. (2013). Innovation and biomedicine: Ethics, evidence
and expectation in HIV. London: Palgrave.
Miller, P., & Rose, N. (2008). Governing the present: Administering economic, social
and political life. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Mirowski, P. (2014). Never let a serious crisis go to waste: How neoliberalism survived
the financial meltdown. London: Verso.
Moore, J. (2015). Capitalism in the web of life: Ecology and the accumulation of capital.
London and New York, NY: Verso.
O’Malley, P. (2004). Risk, uncertainty and government. London: Routledge–Cavendish.
Pemmaraju, S. (2015). Hedge/hog: Speculative action in financial markets. In V. Rao, P.
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Rosa, E., Renn, O., & McCright, A. (2014). The risk society revisited: Social theory and
governance. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press.
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ties. In C. Lawrence, & N. Churn (Eds), Movements in time: Revolution, social justice,
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The lure of possible futures 17
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The lure of possible futures
Adam, B. , Beck, U. , & Van Loon, J. (2000). The risk society and beyond: Critical Issues for
social theory. London: Sage.
Adam, B. , & Groves, C. (2007). Future matters: Action, knowledge, ethics. Leiden & Boston:
Brill.
Adkins, L. , & Lury, C. (2009). Introduction: What is the empirical? European Journal of Social
Theory, 12(1), 5–20.
Amoore, L. (2013). The Politics of possibility: Risk and security beyond probability. Durham, NC
and London: Duke University Press.
Amoore, L. , & Piotukh, V. (2015). Algorithmic life: Calculative devices in the age of big data.
London and New York, NY: Routledge.
Atwood, M. (2011). In other worlds: SF and the human imagination. London: Virago.
Back, L. , & Puwar, N. (2012). Live methods. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell.
Baker, T. , & Simon, J. (2002). Embracing risk: The changing culture of insurance and
responsibility. Chicago: Chicago University Press.
Beck, U. (1992). Risk society: Towards a new modernity. London: Sage
Beck, U. (2008). World at risk. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Bergson, H. (2002). Key writings. London: Continuum.
Brown, N. , & Michael, M. (2003). A sociology of expectations: Retrospecting prospects and
prospecting retrospects. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 15(1), 3–18
Brown, N. , Rappert, B. , & Webster, A. (2000). Contested futures: A sociology of prospective
techno-science. Farnham: Ashgate.
Bryant, L. , Srnicek, N. & Harman, G. (2011). The speculative turn. Melbourne: re.press.
Brynin, M. (2013). Individual choice and risk: The case of higher education. Sociology, 47(2),
284–300
Connolly, W. 2012. A world of becoming. Durham, NC and London: Duke University Press.
Crutzen, P. J. , & Stoermer, E. F. (2000). The ‘Anthropocene’. Global Change Newsletter, 41,
17–18
de Goede, M. (2004). Repoliticizing financial risk. Economy & Society, 33(2), 197–217
Debaise, D. (2009). The emergence of speculative empiricism: Whitehead reading Bergson. In
K. Robinson (Ed.), Deleuze, Whitehead, Bergson: Rhizomatic connections (77–88).
Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Debaise, D. , & Stengers, I. (2015). Gestes Spéculatifs. Paris: Presses du réel.
Deleuze, G. (2007). Two regimes of madness: Texts and interviews 1975–1995. New York, NY:
Semiotext(e).
De Laat, B. (2000). Scripts for the future: Using innovation studies to design foresight tools. In
N. Brown , B. Rappert , & A. Webster (Eds), Contested futures: A sociology of prospective
techno-science (pp. 175–208). Farnham: Ashgate.
Douglas, M. (1992). Risk and blame: Essays in cultural theory. London and New York:
Routledge.
Ericson, R. , & Doyle, A. (2004). Catastrophe, risk, insurance and terrorism. Economy &
Society, 33(2), 135–173
Flynn, R. , & Bellaby, P. (2007). Risk and the public acceptance of new technologies. London:
Palgrave.
Gilman, H. , & Riley, T. (2002). The changing of the avant-garde: visionary architectural
drawings from the Howard Gilman collection. New York, NY: Museum of Modern Art.
Grosz, E. (2004). The nick of time: Politics, evolution, and the untimely. Durham and London:
Duke University Press.
Gunn, J. , & Candelaria, M. (2004). Speculations on speculation: Theories of science fiction.
Lanham, MD: The Scarecrow Press, Inc.
Hacking, I. (1990). The taming of chance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Harman, G. (2013). The current state of speculative realism. Speculations: A Journal of
Speculative Realism, IV, 22–28.
Hunt, M. (2011). Shakespeare’s speculative art. Basingstoke; New York, NY: Palgrave
Macmillan.
James, W. (2011) [1907]. Pragmatism and the meaning of truth. Milton Keynes: Watchmakers.
Kerr, A. , & Cunningham-Burley S. (2000). On ambivalence and risk: Reflexive modernity and
the new human genetics. Sociology, 34(2), 283–304
Koselleck, R. (2004). Futures past: On the semantics of historical time. New York, NY:
Columbia University Press.
Lang, P. , & Menking, W. (2003). Superstudio: Life without objects. Skira Milano.
Larner, W. , & Walters, W. (2004). Global governmentality. London: Routledge.
Latour, B. (1993). We have never been modern. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Lash, S. ; Szerszynski, B. , & Wynne, B. (2000). Risk, environment & modernity: Towards a new
ecology. London: Sage.
Law, J. (2004). After method: Mess in social science research. London and New York, NY:
Routledge.
Luhmann, N. (1993). Risk: a sociological theory. New York: A. de Gruyter.
Lury, C. , & Wakeford, N. (2012). Inventive methods: The happening of the social. London and
New York NY: Routledge.
MacKenzie, D. (2006). An engine, not a camera. Cambridge, MA; London: MIT Press.
Meillassoux, Q. (2008). After finitude: An essay on the necessity of contingency. London:
Continuum.
Melchior-Bonnet, S. (2001). The mirror: A history. New York, NY; London: Routledge.
Michael, M. , & Rosengarten, M. (2013). Innovation and biomedicine: Ethics, evidence and
expectation in HIV. London: Palgrave.
Miller, P. , & Rose, N. (2008). Governing the present: Administering economic, social and
political life. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Mirowski, P. (2014). Never let a serious crisis go to waste: How neoliberalism survived the
financial meltdown. London: Verso.
Moore, J. (2015). Capitalism in the web of life: Ecology and the accumulation of capital. London
and New York, NY: Verso.
O’Malley, P. (2004). Risk, uncertainty and government. London: Routledge–Cavendish.
Pemmaraju, S. (2015). Hedge/hog: Speculative action in financial markets. In V. Rao , P.
Krishnamurthy , & C. Kuoni (Eds.), Speculation, now: Essays and artwork (pp. 52–59). Durham,
NC and London: Duke University Press.
Petersen, A. , & Wilkinson, I. (2008). Health, risk and vulnerability. Oxon: Routledge.
Rao, V. ; Krishnamurthy, P. , & Kouni, C. (2015). Speculation, now: Essays and artwork.
Durham, NC & London: Duke University Press.
Rosa, E. , Renn, O. , & McCright, A. (2014). The risk society revisited: Social theory and
governance. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press.
Savransky, M. (2012). An ecology of times: Modern knowledge, non-modern temporalities. In C.
Lawrence , & N. Churn (Eds), Movements in time: Revolution, social justice, and times of
change. Newcastle: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 264–271
Savransky, M. (2016). The adventure of relevance: An ethics of social inquiry. Basingstoke and
New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Securities, U.S. , and Exchange Commission (SECC). (2014). Equity market structure literature
review: Part II: High frequency trading. Staff of the Division of Trading and Markets.
Selin, C. (2008). The sociology of the future: Tracing stories of technology and time. Sociology
Compass, 2(6), 1878–1895
Serres, M. (1995). The natural contract. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Serres, M. , & Latour, B. (1995). Conversations on science, culture, and time. Ann Arbor:
University of Michigan Press.
Sewell, W. (2005). Logics of history: Social theory and social transformation. Chicago: The
University of Chicago Press.
Stengers, I. (2000). The invention of modern science. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota
Press.
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