Singh_Natalie_Assessment1_11MAX7B24

Part A: Investigation Task – Australian Federal Election

QUESTION 1:
You need to determine your electorate so you know which candidates you can vote for. Use your birthday to
randomly generate a postcode (for example, if you were born on 31/04, use the digits 3, 1, 0, and 4, e.g. 3104,
4013, 3401, etc.). Ensure that your postcode is from a state (not territory).

Record the following information:

My birthday: 09/01/2008
Chosen postcode: 2018 (Teacher Approved: I replaced 0 and 9 with 2 and 8 because my original birth date
numbers were unavailable).
State: NSW
Locality/Suburb: Rosebery
Electorate/Division: Sydney

QUESTION 2:
a. Record the TOTAL first preference count for each political party (or independent candidate) in your
selected electorate/division:
Data sourced from this link (Rosebery is part of ‘Sydney’ division)
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-149.htm

Party/Independent Candidate name Votes % (of formal votes)

Socialist Alliance CHUTER, Andrew 1518 1.47
Labor PLIBERSEK, Tanya 52410 50.82
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation FERGUSON, Ben 1889 1.83
The Greens SAHAI, Chetan 23732 23.01
Citizens Party ZHOU, Wen 1002 0.97
United Australia Party McAlister, Ryan 2298 2.23
Liberal ANDRUSKA, Alexander 20276 19.66
Total (formal) 103,125
Total (informal) 3,499
Total (formal and informal) 106,624

b. To declare a winner in the election, the candidate with the lowest amount of first preference votes is
eliminated. Their votes are then transferred to the candidates in their second preference. This process is
repeated until there are two candidates remaining, and the candidate with the majority
(> 50%) of votes is declared the winner. There are 𝑛 − 1 counts for electorates with nn candidates.

Record the TOTAL Two-Candidate Preferred result in your selected electorate/division:

Party/Independent Candidate name Votes % (of formal votes)

 Labor PLIBERSEK, Tanya 68,770 66.69
The Greens SAHAI, Chetan 34,355 33.31
Total (formal) 103,125
Total (informal) 3,499
Total (formal and informal) 106,624

QUESTION 3
a. How many variations are possible of ranking candidates in your chosen electorate? Show all working out.

For the ‘Sydney’ electorate, there were a total of 7 candidates which can be ranked from 1 to 3 and so on.
There are 7 candidates for rank 1, 6 candidates left for rank 2 and 5 candidates left for rank 3 and so on.
Using the multiplication principle or factorial notation,
Total variations = 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 𝑜𝑟 7!
= 5040

b. What is the minimum number of votes needed to guarantee that at least two votes have the same order
of preferences? Explain your answer.

Since there are 5040 unique variations of preferences, to ensure that there are at least two votes that have
the same order of preference, we must have a minimum of 5041 votes. This is because the first 5040 votes
can all be unique, in which case the 5041th vote must be a duplicate of one of the order of preferences.
This is as per the Pigeonhole Principle.

c. Hence, out of all the formal votes in your chosen electorate, what is the minimum number votes that must
be identical? Explain your answer.

In the ‘Sydney’ electorate, there were a total of 103,125 formal votes. To calculate the minimum number
of votes that are identical we can divide 103,125 by 5041 and round up the answer. This is effectively what
the ceiling function calculates. Thus,

103125
Minimum number of identical votes = ⌈ ⌉
5041
= 20.45725055
= 21

QUESTION 4
a. Outline at least one mathematical reason why the candidate who wins the first preference count would
not necessarily win the election. Write a maximum of 50 words.

The winner in preferential voting isn't always the candidate with the most first-preference votes. Eliminating
candidates with the fewest first-preference votes and reallocating their votes based on subsequent preferences
can lead to another candidate gaining more overall support and winning the election.
b. An informal vote is a vote that is not counted because it is incorrectly completed. A candidate is
considered a ‘Condorcet winner’ if they secure a voting majority in the 1st count of votes. Refer to the full
distribution of preferences in your electorate. Is the winning candidate of your electorate a ‘Condorcet
winner’?

If yes:
Refer to the two-candidate preferred result for your chosen electorate. If all the informal votes were given
to the opponent of the winning candidate, would the winning candidate still be
considered a ‘Condorcet winner’? Explain your answer.

If no:
After how many counts did the winning candidate secure a majority vote? Refer to the two-candidate
preferred result for your chosen electorate. If all the informal votes were given to the opponent of
the winning candidate, would the result of the election be different? Explain your answer.

The winning candidate for the ‘Sydney’ electorate is Tanya Plibersek from the Labor party. Tanya Plibersek
would be considered a ‘Condorcet winner’ since she secured a voting majority in the first count of votes
with 52,410 votes which is a majority of 50.82% of formal votes. If all the 3,499 informal votes were given
to the opponent of the winning candidate, Chetan Sahai, then Chetan Sahai would have 23,732 + 3,499 =
27,231 formal votes after the first round. This constitutes only 26.41% of formal votes which is still
significantly below the votes for Tanya Plibersek. Hence, even if all the informal votes were given to the
Chetan Sahai, Tanya Plibersek will still be considered a ‘Condorcet winner’.

QUESTION 5:
a. Use the Australian Electoral Commission website (results.aec.gov.au) to research the 2022 Senate
election results in the state your selected electorate (from Question 1). List the parties with a large
enough quota to elect at least 1 Senator and complete the details in the table below.

Number of Number of
Party candidates Quota candidates elected
The Greens 6 0.8021 1
Liberal Party of Australia, 6 2.5708 3
NSW Division-National
Party of Australia NSW
Labor 6 2.1306 2

b. Parties generally list candidates in order of priority. Referring to the same political parties as Question
5(a), how many ways could these parties list their candidates? Show all working out.

Number of possible
Party Number of candidates candidates order lists
The Greens 6 6! Or 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×
1 = 720
 Liberal Party of Australia, 6 6! Or 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×
NSW Division-National 1 = 720
Party of Australia NSW
Labor 6 6! Or 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×
1 = 720

c. With reference to the number of candidates in each of their parties and the number of Senators they
can elect (from their Party’s quota), determine the number of combinations of Senators to be elected
in your selected state. Show all working out.

Therefore, there are 1008 different combinations of Senators that can be elected from the given state across all
the parties listed.

6. The party that forms ‘the government’ is the party with the majority of seats (≥ 76) in the House of
Representatives. This party creates a group called ‘the cabinet’, who are the chief decision-making body of the
government. This includes the Prime Minister and all other ministers.

a. In the 2022 Federal election, which party formed ‘the government’ and how many members did they
have across both houses of parliament? Note: This is not the current composition of Parliament
House of representatives: 77 seats
Senate: 26 seats
77 + 26 = 103
In the 2022 Federal election, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) formed the government. The ALP won a total of
77 seats in the House of Representatives, which gave them a majority. Including their Senate seats, they held a
combined total of 103 seats across both houses of parliament

b. The Ministers of State Act 1952 determines the maximum number of ministers who are allowed to be
in the Cabinet. Using your answer in Question 6(a), determine the number of possible groups of
 cabinet members to be selected from the party that forms the government if they have the maximum
number of members. Show all working out and leave your answer in scientific notation, correct to 3
significant figures.

7. There are many different types of voting systems that can be used in elections. The Australian Federal
election mostly uses preferential voting.

a. Referring to your data and using mathematical reasoning, outline at least one advantage of using
preferential voting. Write a maximum of 75 words.

Preferential voting fosters inclusivity by encouraging voters to rank candidates based on their preferences,
which helps minimise the issue of "wasted votes" commonly found in other voting systems. This approach
promotes a fairer representation of diverse viewpoints within the electorate, potentially leading to the election
of candidates who better reflect the overall sentiment of the voters. Additionally, preferential voting
encourages candidates to appeal to a broader spectrum of voters and fosters a more positive and collaborative
campaign environment.

b. Referring to your data and using mathematical reasoning, outline at least one limitation of using preferential
voting. Note: Assume there are no time constraints in the counting of votes. Write a maximum of 75 words.

One limitation of preferential voting, as seen in the data, is its complexity, which can potentially confuse some
voters. The process of ranking multiple candidates requires a certain level of understanding from voters, and
some may find it challenging to accurately rank all candidates according to their preferences. This complexity
can lead to higher rates of informal votes or mistakes in the ranking process, affecting the accuracy of the
election outcome.

b. Use mathematical arguments to propose a different system of voting that would maintain the
advantage but address the limitation. Write a maximum of 150 words.

A ranked choice voting system, also known as instant-runoff voting (IRV), could maintain the advantage of
preferential voting while addressing its complexity. In this system, voters rank candidates in order of
preference, like preferential voting. However, instead of requiring voters to rank all candidates, they can choose
to rank only their top choices if they prefer. Mathematically, IRV operates by eliminating the candidate with the
fewest first-choice votes in each round until one candidate receives a majority. This simplifies the process for
voters while still ensuring that the winning candidate has broad support from the electorate. Furthermore, IRV
reduces the potential for "wasted votes" and encourages candidates to appeal to a wider range of voters,
promoting inclusivity and a fair representation. Overall, ranked choice voting through IRV offers a practical
solution that maintains the benefits of preferential voting while addressing its complexity, making it a viable
alternative in electoral systems.