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Learning Journal Unit 5

The document discusses the probability of defects in transistor production, detailing calculations for the probability of the 10th transistor being the first defective, the likelihood of no defects in a batch of 100, and the expected number of transistors produced before encountering a defect for two machines with different defective rates. It explains the geometric and binomial distribution formulas used to derive these probabilities and highlights how increasing the defect probability affects the mean and standard deviation of wait times until a defect occurs. References are provided for further reading on introductory statistics.

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Isa Ahmad Arsal Alhabsyi
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29 views2 pages

Learning Journal Unit 5

The document discusses the probability of defects in transistor production, detailing calculations for the probability of the 10th transistor being the first defective, the likelihood of no defects in a batch of 100, and the expected number of transistors produced before encountering a defect for two machines with different defective rates. It explains the geometric and binomial distribution formulas used to derive these probabilities and highlights how increasing the defect probability affects the mean and standard deviation of wait times until a defect occurs. References are provided for further reading on introductory statistics.

Uploaded by

Isa Ahmad Arsal Alhabsyi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability Questions About Transistor Production

A machine that produces a special type of transistor (a component of computers)


has a 2% defective rate. The production is considered a random process where
each transistor is independent of the others.
All Questions are obtained from the Learning Journal Page of Statistics Course
Questions and Answers:
1. What is the probability that the 10th transistor produced is the first with a
defect?
We use the geometric distribution formula:
Probability = (1 - p) raised to the power of (n - 1), multiplied by p.
Where:
o p = 0.02 (defective rate)

o n = 10 (position of the first defect)

Substituting the values:


o Probability = (1 - 0.02) raised to the power of 9, multiplied by 0.02.

o Probability = (0.98)^9 × 0.02.

o Probability ≈ 0.0167.

So, the probability is approximately 1.67%.


2. What is the probability that the machine produces no defective transistors
in a batch of 100?
This is calculated using the binomial distribution formula:
Probability = (1 - p) raised to the power of n.
Where:
o p = 0.02 (defective rate)

o n = 100 (batch size)

Substituting the values:


o Probability = (1 - 0.02) raised to the power of 100.

o Probability = (0.98)^100.

o Probability ≈ 0.1326.

So, the probability is approximately 13.26%.


3. On average, how many transistors would you expect to be produced until
the first with a defect? What is the standard deviation?
For a geometric distribution:
o Mean = 1 divided by p.
o Standard Deviation = the square root of (1 - p), divided by p.

Substituting p = 0.02:
o Mean = 1 / 0.02 = 50.

o Standard Deviation = square root of (1 - 0.02) divided by 0.02.

o Standard Deviation = square root of 0.98 divided by 0.02 ≈ 49.75.

So, the expected number of transistors is 50, and the standard deviation is
approximately 49.75.
4. Another machine that also produces transistors has a 5% defective rate
where each transistor is produced independent of the others. On average
how many transistors would you expect to be produced with this machine
before the first with a defect? What is the standard deviation?
Substituting p = 0.05 into the formulas:
o Mean = 1 / 0.05 = 20.

o Standard Deviation = square root of (1 - 0.05) divided by 0.05.

o Standard Deviation = square root of 0.95 divided by 0.05 ≈ 19.49.

So, the expected number of transistors is 20, and the standard deviation is
approximately 19.49.
5. Based on your answers to parts (3) and (4), how does increasing the
probability of an event affect the mean and standard deviation of the wait
time until success?
o As the probability of a defect p increases, the mean wait time until
the first defect decreases because the mean is inversely
proportional to p.
o The standard deviation also decreases, but not as quickly as the
mean, because it is proportional to the square root of (1 - p),
divided by p. This indicates that the variability in the number of
transistors produced before encountering a defect decreases as the
probability of a defect increases (Ilowsky et.al, 2022).
References
llowsky, B., Dean, S., Birmajer, D., Blount, B., Boyd, S., Einsohn, M., Helmreich,
Kenyon, L., Lee, S., & Taub, J. (2022). Introductory
statistics. Openstax. https://openstax.org/details/books/introductory-statistics

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