Session: VII - X

Topics for today

Condition and Performance Monitoring
Deterioration Modeling
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 Asset Condition reflects the physical state of the
asset, which may or may not affect its
performance

 The performance of the asset is the ability to

provide the required level of service to customers

 Generally this can be measured in terms of

reliability, availability, capacity, and meeting
customer demands and needs
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 Critical information for determining the
remaining useful life of an asset

 the timing for possible intervention can be

estimated

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 Technical advances making asset obsolete

 Changes in community expectations - asset no longer has

the capacity to meet community standards (ex. Kersosene)

 Growth impacts meaning that the asset’s capacity falls short

of the new demands (ex. automated road cleaning
machines)

 Compliance - changing standards mean the asset becomes

non-compliant (ex. Asbestos)

 Economic life - whereby the costs of continuing to operate

the asset warrant it now being replaced. 5
 Ability to plan for and manage the delivery of the required
level of service.
 Avoidance of premature asset failure, leaving open the
option of cost effective renovation.
 Risk management associated with asset failures, and
mitigation of the consequences of failure.
 Accurate prediction of future expenditure requirements
through understanding remaining asset life and capital
investment needs.
 Refinement of maintenance and rehabilitation strategies.
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 The objectives of systems to monitor asset
condition and performance should be to:
1. Identify those assets which are underperforming
2. Predict when asset failure to deliver the required
level of service is likely to occur
3. Ascertain the reasons for performance
deficiencies
4. Determine what corrective action is required and
when (maintenance, rehabilitation, renewal)
5. Record asset failures for use in advanced AM
techniques
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▪ When was the asset constructed / rehabilitated / replaced?

▪ Where is the asset / component in its lifecycle?

▪ What is the asset’s theoretical effective life?

▪ What is the estimated residual life until rehabilitation and / or

replacement is necessary?

▪ Has the asset been inspected physically and by what process?

▪ How can the asset’s deterioration be predicted?

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▪ How can the asset’s failure be predicted?
▪ How could planned maintenance prevent the asset’s
failure or extend the time to failure?
▪ Can the asset be rehabilitated and at what cost?
▪ What level of service will the asset deliver once
rehabilitated and for how long?
▪ Is the asset technically or commercially obsolete?

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 The extent and repetition of condition
assessment will be influenced by:
▪ The type of the asset
▪ The criticality of the asset
▪ The relative age of the asset
▪ The rate of deterioration of the asset
▪ The economic value of the outcomes to the
business.

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 Existing asset condition assessment
practices

 Available Options / Techniques and Sample

Size

 Condition Assessment Frequency and Cost

 Benefit/Cost Considerations
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 Environmental factors, i.e. ground, traffic, community
disruptions etc. (Ex. Air India Building, Nariman Point)

 Asset factors, i.e. material, age, protection and

maintenance history

 Past failure history/data, i.e. frequency, repair cost,

damage costs, types of failure

 Condition assessment policies including corporate

guidelines/objectives and maintenance policies
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The following factors should be considered in setting up the condition
assessment program:
 Investigate available options/techniques of condition
monitoring:
- benchmarking other practices
- looking to available new technology
- adopting existing techniques
- do nothing.

 For each condition assessment technique, determine the

sampling size, such as:
- - all assets
- - problem assets
- - actuarial sample.
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 How much condition assessment should be undertaken,
and how many assets should be assessed, should be
addressed within each organisation.

 The level of assessment needs to consider:

- the type of asset
- the number of like assets
- their similarity for sampling opportunities
- the available budget
- the techniques available
- their cost.

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 Frequency may be based on:-
- regular interval
- condition based
- other indicators, such as maintenance cost/depreciated
replacement cost.

 Identify the resources required for each appropriate

technique, including:
- specialist equipment
- labour
- operation
- training
- data i.e. capture, storage and analysis.

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 Direct and indirect benefits with each possible option or
technique.
 Some quantifiable whereas others may not be so easily
quantified
 Condition assessment needs to be justified economically by
considering the costs of a program and the benefits expected
to be achieved.
 End use of the data should be commensurate with collection
costs
 An approach with initial random sample with interpolation of
results may be more cost-effective (Ex – GIS Maps showing
rainfall).
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 As with all economic analysis, a sensitivity
analysis should be carried out

 Examples include:
▪ market forces affecting the opportunity cost of
capital
▪ community expectations
▪ perception on risk and factors in the long-term

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 Sophisticated systems allow the condition to be assessed on up
to ten different parameters with condition scores between 0 and
1,000 they can still be broken down into the base scores of 1 to 5
if required.

 The adoption of sophisticated condition ranking systems may

not be justified for all assets.

 However, with the advancements being made in AM techniques

and practices, it is likely that most asset owners will employ
sophisticated methods for all their assets within 10 years.

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 The Pavement Condition Index rates the condition of
the surface of a road network.

 The PCI provides a numerical rating for the condition

of road segments within the road network, where “0”
is the worst possible condition and “100” is the best.

 What It Measures: The PCI measures two conditions:

▪ The type, extent and severity of pavement surface distresses
(typically cracks and rutting)
▪ The smoothness and ride comfort of the road
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 The PCI is a subjective method of evaluation based on
inspection and observation.

 It is neither a complex nor time-consuming exercise.

 Knowledgeable and experienced public works

officials drive the road network and evaluate its
condition in a systematic way.

 The observations are entered into a database for

evaluation and use.
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 Identify immediate maintenance and rehabilitation
needs

 Monitor pavement condition over time

 Develop a network preventive maintenance

strategy

 Develop road maintenance budgets

 Evaluate pavement materials and designs

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 Identify immediate maintenance and rehabilitation
needs

 Monitor pavement condition over time

 Develop a network preventive maintenance

strategy

 Develop road maintenance budgets

 Evaluate pavement materials and designs

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 Manageable road sections
▪ In order to develop a PCI, the road network needs to be
divided into manageable segments.
▪ Sections with relatively uniform pavement structures,
design and traffic volumes will have similar
performance characteristics.
▪ Urban area one block or 150 m ; Rural area may be 10
km

 A roads inventory

 A classification and rating system for road defects

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 Surface Defects
▪ Ravelling & Loss of Surface Aggregate
▪ Flushing
 Surface Deformations
▪ Rippling and Shoving
▪ Wheel Track Rutting
▪ Distortion
 Cracking
▪ Longitudinal Wheel Track Single and Multiple, Alligator
▪ Centerline Single and Multiple, Alligator
▪ Pavement Edge Single and Multiple, Alligator
▪ Transverse Single and Multiple, Alligator
▪ Longitudinal - Meander or Mid-lane
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Source: SP-024 Manual for Condition Rating of Flexible Pavements – Distress
Manifestation, Ministry of Transportation, Ontario

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Pavement Management –
Delaware DOT

Sarah McDougall
Pavement Management Engineer
Delaware’s Roads
o State of Delaware Maintains 89% of the mileage in the state
o 4,400 centerline miles of State Maintenance
o 1,500 centerline miles of Suburban Streets

o The Pavement Management Team (PMT) is responsible for the

maintenance and rehabilitation of State Maintenance Mileage
 Pavement Management Performance Measures
• Overall Pavement Condition (OPC)
Good – OPC>60
Fair – OPC between 50 and 60
Poor – OPC<50

• Goal: 85% of roads in good or fair

condition with no more than 10%
rating fair

• 2013 Ratings: 99% of state

maintenance roads have an OPC
of 50 or greater
 Pavement Management Basics

o Avoid a “worst first” mentality

o Fewer miles would get
done spending large Pavement Deterioration Curve
amounts of money
reconstructing poor
pavements
o More miles can be
rehabbed for the same
budget with roads that
are in fair condition
o We need a mix of
preservation,
rehabilitation, and
reconstruction to keep
the overall road network
in good condition A pavement needing reconstruction is not going to get
much worse…a pavement in fair condition though, can
quickly deteriorate into poor
How do we do this?
o DelDOT’s Pavement and Rehabilitation program strives to
maintain the condition of its roadways by systematically
identifying candidates for rehabilitation and determining the
most cost effective treatment

Candidate
Road rating OPC score
List

Prioritization
PMT Scoring Scoping List
Score

Scoping Location List for Bond

Trips Remedies Bill Approval
Road Rating
o Semi automated condition survey collected every other year by
consultant contract
o Semi automated: combination of visual condition evaluation along with computer
measurements of roadway distresses
o Video Van collection of images and measurements which are reviewed and
analyzed in office
Determining OPC
o Analysis to determine OPC completed by same consultant agreement that collects
data

o Roads are divided into rating segments

o Each pavement type has a set of distresses that are looked for and evaluated by
severity and extent
o Pavement types: Flexible, Rigid, Composite, Surface Treatment
o Severity and Extent each rated as Low, Medium, or High

o Using a set of distress indices based severity and extent rating, OPC is calculated
using the following formula:

OPC = Mean of index values -1.25 x Standard deviation

o OPC is on a scale of 0-100, 100 being “perfect pavement”

Example

SEVERITY
Flexible Pavement Distresses:
DEFICIENCY LOW MEDIUM HIGH
Fatigue Cracking Alligator crack
Alligator crack pattern clearly
Fatigue Fine parallel
Transverse Cracking Cracking hairline cracks
pattern clearly developed with
developed spalling and/or
distortion
Block Cracking
Patch Deterioration EXTENT
DEFICIENCY LOW MEDIUM HIGH
Surface Defects
0 - 9% (wheel
Fatigue Cracking 10 - 25% > 25%
path)
Example
Fatigue Cracking Index
Extent
If distress is not present
Index=100 Low Medium High
Low 92 84 70
Severity Medium 80 58 40
High 72 46 20

A index value is determined for every distress in the rating segments surface type
classification and put into the OPC equation.

This is done for every state maintained rating segment in the state (in 2013 there
was a total of 25,092 rating segments)
Candidate List
o Pulled based on OPC thresholds by functional class

Functional Class OPC Threshold

Interstates, Arterials <70

Collectors <60

Locals <50

o The list is reviewed to remove anything that is already approved as part

of the paving list from a previous year
Prioritization Scoring
o PMT field reviews all roads on the candidate list
o Roads are given of score of 1-3 in the following categories:
o Pavement Condition
• Ride quality, distresses causing safety issues, etc.
o ADT
• Set scale for each functional classification
o Functional Classification
• Set scale for each function classification
o Special Conditions/Transportation Needs
• Types of facilities on road (farms, employment centers, schools, firehouse etc)
o Pavement Management Team Modifier
• Previous nominations, project linkage, safety concerns
Prioritization Scoring
Scoping Trips and Beyond
o Each scoping location is looked at by various groups within DelDOT to
choose the most suitable rehabilitation treatment
o Materials and Research, Construction, Maintenance

o Preliminary Cost Estimates are done, and the list is refined based on what
the annual budget is assumed to be
o Final list of Pave and Rehab candidates is sent over for approval in the
annual Delaware Bond Bill
o Also sent over for approval are lists complied for pavement preservation treatments
such as microsurfacing, tar and chip, and thin overlay
o Locations are nominated by maintenance districts
o locations noted by PMT throughout the year

o Once approval is given, refined estimates are started and packaged into
contracts for construction
Statewide Local Streets &
Roads Needs Assessment

Left click to continue

Moraga Town Council

February 24, 2010

RTPA
RCTF
 Study Objectives
• What are conditions of local streets &
roads?

• How much will it cost to improve/maintain

pavements in an acceptable condition?

• What are safety, traffic & regulatory needs?

• Is there a funding shortfall? If so, what is it?

Left click to continue
 Importance of the Study
• While the federal and state governments regularly assess
their transportation system needs, no such data existed for
the local component of the State’s transportation network.

• The local street and road system provides two-fold

opportunity for economic recovery during the worst fiscal
crisis in California in decades.
– The maintenance and preservation of the local
transportation network provides both public and private
sector jobs and thus supports economic recovery in every
corner of the state.
– Furthermore, well maintained infrastructure is critical for
economic development by attracting businesses and
providing for the safe and efficient movement of both
people and goods.

Left click to continue

Local Streets & Roads are Huge
Part of State Network
81% of California’s
Other (2%) pavements are
Federal (8%) owned by cities
State highways and counties!
(9%)
Cities (43%)

Counties (38%)

Left click to continue

 It’s Not Just Pavements …

• Sidewalks
• ADA ramps
• Curb & gutter
• Storm drains
• Lighting

Left click to continue

 Study Assumptions
• 10 year analysis period
• Constant 2008 $
• Pavement goal is best management
practices
• Inclusion of safety, traffic & regulatory
elements
• Does not include new streets or capital
improvements.
Left click to continue
 Data Collection
No Data
7% of centerline
• Total of 406 agencies
miles – 56 counties
– 350 cities
29% no data
• Missing 130 agencies
– Mostly small cities
– No data
Data
71% received
data rec’d
93% of centerline
– No resources
miles

Left click to continue

Pavement Condition Index
100
Good - Excellent
70
At Risk
50

Poor
25
Failed

Left click to continue

Statewide Average PCI = 68

Left click to continue

 Why is 68 Critical?
$2/sy

$15-40/sy
68

$40-70/sy

$60-135/sy

Left click to continue

 Condition of Town of Moraga
Local Roads
• Town of Moraga has an average PCI of
59.

$2/sy

$15-40/sy
59
$40-70/sy

$60-135/sy

Left click to continue

 Moraga Roads
current conditions Left click to continue

Arterial Collector Residential Network

PCI Road condition % % % %
100
Excellent

13.2 7.7 11.8 32.7

85
Good

70
Fair 8.6 4.0 16.1 28.7

50
Poor 3.4 17.3 17.5 38.2

25
Very Poor
10
0 0 0.4 0.4
0 Failed

25.3 29.0 45.7 100

 Moraga Roads
current conditions (PCI)

100 – Moraga Road at Via 77 – Campolindo between 58 – Larch to Roberts Ct

Granada Paseo del Rio and Calle la Mesa

38 – Tharp to Rimer 19 – Scofield – Goodfellow to Harold

Left click to continue

Moraga Roads
current conditions

Left click to continue

 Current Conditions
32%

Moraga Roads
39%

29%

future scenarios
$0M in 10 Years $12M in 10 Years

9.70%
30.80%
24.00%

66.30% 67.00%

2.20%

$20M in 10 Years Left click to continue $32M in 10 Years

0.10% 24.50% 36.30%

63.70%
75.40%
 Funding Sources
Annual Funding
Funding Sources FY FY
FY
2006/07 09/10
08/09
& 07/08 onward
State 41.0% 40.5% 52.9%
State - Prop 1B 10.0% 0% 0%
Federal with ARRA* 10.8% 35.9% 10.4%
Local 38.1% 23.6% 36.8%

* ARRA local share is assumed to be 40% of $1.6 billion.

Left click to continue
 Critical Revenue Streams
• Proposition 42: Cities and Counties will receive
approximately $592 million in FY 2009-10.
– Moraga receives <$150,000 of this amount.
– Used for maintenance and rehabilitation of local
roads.
• Highway Users Tax Account (HUTA/Gas Tax):
Cities and Counties will receive $986 million in
FY 2009-10.
– Moraga receives <$225,000 of this amount.
– Most flexible source of revenue used for operations
and maintenance and rehabilitation of local roads.
Left click to continue
Transportation Funds in Jeopardy
in FY 2010-11
• The State deferred the first two quarters of
Proposition 42 funds to cities and counties in FY
2009-10.
• The State also deferred seven months of gas tax
subventions to cities and counties in FY 2009-10.
• The Legislative Analysts’ Office projects another
approximately $20 billion budget deficit over the
next 18 months alone.
• Transportation revenues continue to be in
jeopardy.

Left click to continue

 What Happens If We Don’t Get
More Funding?
$79B
68 (at risk)

Backlog ($ billion)
PCI

48 (poor)
$37B

2008 2033
Left click to continue
 What Happens If We Don’t Get
More Funding?
58 (fair) $66.2M

Backlog ($million)
PCI

38 – Tharp to Rimer

34 (poor)
$6.4M

2008 2018 2033

Left click to continue
Total 10 Year Shortfall ($B)
Transportation 10 Year Existing 10 Year
Asset Needs Funding Shortfall

Pavements $ 67.6 $ 15.9 $ 51.7

Essential
$ 32.1 $ 12.4 $ 19.7
Components
Total shortfall $71.4

38 cents/gal
Left click to continue 38 cents/gallon!
 Funding Shortfall for
Moraga
• Moraga has a funding shortfall of $55.4M.
• Moraga has a backlog (deferred
maintenance) of $6.4M.
• Constantly looking for grants.
• Constantly evaluating pavement
maintenance technologies and methods.

Left click to continue

 Summary
• Good News
– Data received represents 93% of local system
– Statewide average PCI = 68
• Not so good news
– PCI = 68 is at risk category & drops to 48 by
2033 with existing funding
– Need to more than double existing funding to
maintain transportation assets
– Moraga PCI at 59, and dropping.
Left click to continue
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 Condition assessment and asset performance are
closely linked

 Condition and performance failure can be

considered as ‘cause’ and ‘effect’ respectively

 However, there are other causes of failure and

poor performance than just condition, for
example:
▪ Lack of capacity or utilisation (e.g. failure of a road to handle the
expected traffic, with resultant time delays)
▪ Human error
▪ Obsolescence 85
 An asset can be considered to have failed when it
no longer achieves the required levels of service or
when it is no longer providing the most cost
effective means of providing that service

 It becomes more economic to replace than to

continue to maintain

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 Typical performance questions to be considered when
prepared a monitoring process are:
▪ What service levels and performance measures have been
set for each asset type?

▪ What technical performance measures will be used to

manage asset performance.

▪ What are the risks associated with asset performance?

▪ Determine whether the asset is performing reliably, and

meeting user capacity/service requirements.
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▪ How do the assets meet:
- occupational, health and safety regulations?
- public safety requirements?
- environmental requirements?
▪ What is the asset’s current utilisation compared with its
maximum capacity?
▪ What is the asset’s current capacity compared with
service demand?
▪ Is asset performance being fed back into the acquisition
decision-making process?

▪ Are asset performance grading appropriate?

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 Business performance measures are related to the
strategic objectives of the business and customer
service delivery standards.
 The measurement of business performance
provides:
▪ Measurement of actual against desired level of
customer service
▪ Information to demonstrate achievement of
organisational strategic goals
▪ Accountability to customers
▪ Identification of areas for improvement
▪ Benchmarking between different organisations.
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 Technical performance measures need to
provide information on:
▪ The types of failure
▪ The number of customers affected
▪ The duration of the failure
▪ The severity of the failure
▪ The target level of service.

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 Technical performance measurement and monitoring is
undertaken to support decision-making by the asset
managers within an organisation.

 It addresses issues for consideration in effective

management of the assets, such as:
▪ Assessing the effectiveness of the operational, maintenance and
capital works program
▪ Review and refinement of maintenance and rehabilitation strategies
and standards
▪ Assistance in strategic decision-making through definition of
remaining life based on the measure being assessed e.g. capacity of a
pipe versus demand.

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DMRC

*Slide from Satish Kumar, DMRC – see additional reading material

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DMRC

*Slide from Satish Kumar, DMRC – see additional reading material

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*Slide from Satish Kumar, DMRC – see additional reading material
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*DLP – Defect Liability
Period 101
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Asset Management of Properties - Session-I 112
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 A model to describe the process and
mechanisms by which assets deteriorate
and pass through different stages of failure

 Deterioration is described using

probabilistic models and using curves to
graphically represent the model

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 The anticipated rate of deterioration of the asset.

 The path of deterioration (curve shape)

 The milestone, or points or stages, along the

deterioration path

 The thresholds that define the beginning and end

of each stage

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 The different levels of risk exposure at stages along the
deterioration path

 The actions to take at different points and during

sequential stages along the deterioration path to
optimize stewardship efforts.

 The curves to illustrate the model and equations to

compute the model.

 The model is intended to help ascertain the probability of

failure (PoF) of an asset during any particular calendar
year.
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 Concealed Conditions

 Warranty Defects

 Latent Defects and Patent Defects

 Light Traffic vs. Heavy Traffic OR Light

Use vs. Heavy Use

 Mild Environment vs. Harsh Environment

 Intermittent Demand vs. Continual Demand 120

 Patent defects are those which can be
discovered by reasonable inspection.

 Latent defects are those which cannot be

discovered by reasonable inspection

 For example, problems with foundations

which may not become apparent for
several years after completion when
settlement causes cracking in the building.
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 Run Hours

 Loadings

 Exposure

 Operating Conditions

 Service Environment

 Misuse and Abuse

 Quality of Maintenance
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 Statistical deterioration models

 Engineering deterioration models

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 Probability Distributions
 Survivor Curves
 Deterioration Curves (eg., straight
line, double declining balance)
 P-F Interval and P-F Curve
 Extended P-F Curve

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 Essentially a frequency distribution curve

 Based on statistical modelling, that shows all the

values that a variable can take and the likelihood
that each will occur.

 In the statistical analysis of the service

life of assets, the probability distribution refers to
the curve for the forecasted retirement of assets

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▪ Mean

▪ Standard deviation

▪ Skewness

▪ Kurtosis

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 Again a frequency distribution curve

 A survivor curve is essentially a curve of

functional failures of all the assets in
an equal life group (ELG).

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 P – potential failure
 F – functional failure

 The P-F interval represents the second

(middle) phase in a three-phase life cycle
model and deterioration model of assets

 The three phases are identified as follows

▪ Phase 1: Pre-P Period (<P)
▪ Phase 2: P-F Interval (P-F)
▪ Phase 3: Post-F Period (>F) 132
 A type of deterioration model that utilizes
a graph to represent the relationship
between potential failure ("P") and functional
failure ("F").

 An understanding of the P-F curve helps the

owner determine which types of
asset replacement policy is most appropriate to
their tolerance for risk.

▪ Failure Replacement Policy

▪ Preventative Replacement Policy 133
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 P-F intervals are determined through a variety of
techniques to gather empirical data on the
condition of an asset

 Predictive maintenance monitoring techniques

 Non-Destructive Techniques

 The longer the P-F interval, the more time

the owner has to make a good decision by
planning an appropriate course of action and
raising the necessary funds for renewal of the
asset. 138
 Shift from time-based to condition based
maintenance

 Shift from fixed intervals to variable

intervals

 Development of replacement policy

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 Performance Curves

 Covert Failure and Overt Failures

 Elegant Degradation and Graceful Degradation

 Stochastic and Predictive

 Normal Deterioration and Accelerated

Deterioration
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 Forces of retirement

 Controllable deterioration drivers and uncontrollable

drivers

 Failure Rate

 Reliability Theory

 Positive Aging and Negative Aging

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 A performance curve is a graphical representation of the
deterioration of an asset

 Conceptual in nature

 The slope of the curve indicates the anticipated rate of

deterioration of the asset

 The length of the curve represents the service life of the

asset until functional failure ("F")

 The points (thresholds) along the curve indicate necessary

changes in the maintenance mix
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 Based on failure detection modes

 Covert failure – sudden breakdowns

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 Based on failure detection modes

 Elegant degradation – sudden breakdowns

 Graceful degradation – failures can be seen

and even after degradation some
functionality still intact

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 Assets or systems whose behaviour is non-
deterministic, sporadic, and random

These assets are not amenable to traditional time-

based maintenance strategies

 Assets require a fundamentally different set of

principles, tool and techniques in order to
derive deterioration models and make reasonable
predictions.
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 Physical - Physical degradation from the action of
the elements (rain, such exposure, etc).
▪ Controllable (misuse/neglect) and uncontrollable

 Technological - Obsolescence such as advancing

technologies and standards.

 Financial - Project economics; inadequate

budgets, etc.
 Legal - Authorities having jurisdiction who develop
new standards. 155
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 The frequency at which an engineered
system or asset fails, expressed for
example in failures per hour

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 Deterioration models
▪ Basis of statistical analysis of large number of
samples

▪ Engineering models taking into account failure

rates, modes (also on large number of samples)

▪ Stochastic model – unknown or new assets

▪ Essential input to an Asset Management

Plan/Document
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