Global Demography and Demographic Transitions

Lesson Objectives:

• Discuss the relationship between population and economic welfare.

• Identify the effects of aging and overpopulation.
• Differentiate between contrasting positions over reproductive health.

Getting Started:

For a better understanding of the lesson, study first the following terms
defined below:

➢ Demography. This is the study of human populations – their size, composition and
distribution across space – and the process through which populations change.
Births, deaths and migration are the ‘big three’ of demography, jointly producing
population stability or change.
Link Source: Department of Sociology, Stockholm University
(https://www.suda.su.se/education/what-is-demography)

➢ Mortality Rate: A death rate. There are a number of different types of mortality
rates as, for examples, the following:
1. The fetal mortality rate: The ratio of fetal deaths to the sum of the births
(the live births + the fetal deaths) in that year.
2. The infant mortality rate: The number of children dying under a year of
age divided by the number of live births that year.
3. The maternal mortality rate: The number of maternal deaths related to
childbearing divided by the number of live births (or by the number of live
births + fetal deaths) in that year.
Link Source: https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=10118

➢ Fertility Rate. The total fertility rate in a specific year is defined as the total
number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the
end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the
prevailing age-specific fertility rates. It is calculated by totaling the age-specific
fertility rates as defined over five-year intervals.
Link Source: https://data.oecd.org/pop/fertility-rates.html

➢ Median Age. The age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups:
half the people are younger than this age and half are older.
Link Source: https://glosbe.com/en/en/median%20age

The Contemporary World

Demographic Transitions
P a g e |1
Discussion:

A. Demographic Transition
Demographic transition is a singular historical period during which mortality
and fertility rates decline from high to low levels in a particular country or region.
This transition began around 1800 with declining mortality in Europe. This has
spread to all parts of the world and is projected to be completed by 2100. This
has brought momentous changes, reshaped the economic and demographic
life cycles of individuals and restructured populations.
Before the period of demographic transitions, population was held in
equilibrium with the slowly growing economy. Faster population growth would
depress wages, causing mortality to rise due to famine, war or disease. This
mortality response is called positive check by Thomas Malthus. On the other hand,
depressed wages caused postponement of marriage, resulting in prostitution and
other vices, including contraception. This was referred to as preventive check
also by Malthus. Population growth throughout the regions of the world was slow
mainly due to exchanges of disease through exploration and trade and global
climatic change. (Galloway, 1986)
B. Stages of Demographic Transition:
Stage 1: The Decline of Mortality

Demographic transition began in Northwest Europe in 1800s. In the early

20thcentury, the decline in mortality began in low-income countries which
accelerated after World War II
The factors that contributed to the decline in mortality are reductions in
contagious and infectious diseases that are spread through air and water due to
public health measures and preventive medicine (i.e. development of smallpox
vaccine in the late 18th century), improved personal hygiene, improvements in
nutrition due to innovations in storage and transportation and reductions in
chronic and degenerative diseases due to publicly organized and funded
biomedical research (i.e. human genome project, stem cell research).

The Contemporary World

Demographic Transitions
P a g e |2
 The table below presents the life expectancy of countries based on
economic development status:

Classification Countries Life Expectancy

Least Developed include most sub-Saharan Africa, Life expectancy rises from
Countries Bangladesh, Cambodia (0.7 billion 35.7 years in 1950-1954 to 48.7
people) years in 1995-1999 (.29 years
per year)
Less Developed include India, China and the bulk Life expectancy increased
Countries of the world’s population (4.2 from 41.8 to 65.4 years (.52
billion people) years per year)
More Developed Europe, North America, Japan, Life expectancy increased
Countries Australia, New Zealand (1.2 billion from 66.1 to 74.8 years (.19
people) years per year)
Table 1. UN Classification of Countries (based on economic development status)

Average life expectancy in industrial and developing countries for those born in 2020, by gender

In 2020, the average life expectancy for those born in more developed
countries was 79 years for males and 82 years for females. On a global scale, the
life expectancy for males was 70 years, and 75 years for females. Life expectancy
is the measure of how long a person is expected to live. Life expectancy varies
worldwide and involves many factors such as diet, gender, and environment. As
medical care has improved over the years, life expectancy has increased

The Contemporary World

Demographic Transitions
P a g e |3
worldwide. Introduction to medical care such as vaccines has significantly
improved the lives of millions of people worldwide.

The average worldwide life expectancy at birth has steadily increased

since 2007. More developed countries tend to have higher life expectancies, for
a multitude of reasons. Africa was the continent that had the lowest life
expectancy for both men and women in 2019, while North America had the
highest for men and Europe had the highest for females. The life expectancy of
men at birth in the United States has slightly increased from 2007 to 2017.
Additionally, women in the United States have also faced a slight increase in life
expectancy over the same time period.

New and powerful medicinal tools. With

the rise of new potent medicines, fatal
diseases are now being eradicated.

Stage 2: Fertility Transition

Underlying Facts and Ideas on Fertility Transition
Most theories on fertility emphasize the idea that couples wish to have a
certain number of surviving children, rather than births per se. Fertility is influenced
by how economic change influences the costs and benefits of childbearing.
Rising incomes have shifted consumption demand toward non-agricultural goods
and services for which educated labor is a more important input. A rise in the
return of education then leads to increased investments in education making
childbearing and childrearing more expensive. Parents with higher incomes
choose to devote more resources to each child, and since this raises the cost of
each child, it also leads to fewer children.

The Contemporary World

Demographic Transitions
P a g e |4
 Sixty countries with 43 percent of the world’s population have fertility rate at or
below 2.1 children per woman. When fertility declines, it declines most at the
youngest and oldest ages and becomes concentrated in the 20s and early 30s.
Stage 3: Population Growth
The combination of fertility and mortality determines population growth.
Global population projections are regularly prepared by the United Nations and
the US Census Bureau. The central current projections from the UN, which are
consistent with some other global projections, anticipate that global population
will reach 8.9 billion by 2050 and just below 9.5 billion by 2100 – a 50% increase
from its current size.

Just in case you’ll be in India, the second

largest population in the world, check the
traffic update. Daily commute will never be
the same again. The nation had been
struggling for a long time the effects of
uncontrolled population growth.

The population projection for the More Developed Countries population is

nearly flat, with population decrease in Europe and Japan offset by population
increase in the US and other areas. Most of the projected population increase
takes place in the Less Developed Countries, which gain 1.8 billion, or 43%. The
greatest proportional gain comes in the Least Developed Countries with their
higher fertility and more rapid growth.
Stage 4: Shifts in Age Distribution

Demographic transition also resulted to shifts in age distribution. These shifts

can be seen in the dependency ratios which take either the younger or older
population and divide by the working-age population. Dependency ratios
include:

The Contemporary World

Demographic Transitions
P a g e |5
 • Child Dependency Ratio – the population aged 0-14 divided by the
population aged 15-64
• Old-age dependency Ratio – the number of those 65 or older divided by
the population aged 15-64
• Oldest Old Dependency Ratio – looks at those 85 years old and older,
divided by the working-age population

The table below presents the projected median age of countries based on
economic development status:

Classification of Country Projected Median Age by 2050

Least Developed Countries 18.1 to 27. 1 years (9 years)
Less Developed Countries 25.2 to 38.5 years (13.3 years)
More Developed Countries 38.5 to 45.2 years (8 years)
Table 2. Median Age per Classification of Countries

Population aging are caused by two factors – declining fertility and

declining mortality. Population aging due to declining fertility happens when the
share of the elderly population takes place without altering the life expectancy.
Such aging reflects a choice made by individuals to have fewer children. On the
other hand, population aging due to declining mortality is generally associated
with increasing health and improving functional status of the elderly

C. Consequences of the Demographic Transition

The following are the consequences brought about by demographic transitions:

• Rise in total population from 1 billion in 1800 to a projected 9.5 billion in

2100
• The average length of life increases by a factor of 2 or 3 and the median
age of the population doubles from 20s to 40s.
• Most More Developed Countries have negative population growth rates.
• The number of children born declines sharply and childbearing becomes
concentrated into a few years in a woman’s life.
• The joint survivorship of couples is greatly increased and kin networks
become more intergenerationally dense, while horizontally sparser.

The Contemporary World

Demographic Transitions
P a g e |6
 Despite economic advantage, Japan is facing a
major population problem, the decreasing
population growth, which will affect them in
numerous ways.

Suggested Link/s:
• Yale Global Online. Link: https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/world-population-2020-
overview

• Stages of Demographic Transition Model:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1_KBTk5FhQ&list=PLDKyqwZVAA2sZkmyBZWMU1rSG
DYVP3Ppn&index=18

• Demographic Transition: Society and Culture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P2bsPWCRvM&list=PLDKyqwZVAA2sZkmyBZWMU1r
SGDYVP3Ppn&index=19

• Overpopulation-The Human Explosion Explained.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsBT5EQt348&list=PLDKyqwZVAA2sZkmyBZWMU1rSG
DYVP3Ppn&index=20

References/Attributions:
• Steger, M. B., Battersby, P., & Siracusa, J. M. (2014). The SAGE Handbook of Globalization
Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications (Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of
Fundamental Change by Ronald Lee)
• New and powerful medicinal tools. https://www.urmc.rochester.edu/news/story/u.s.-
slipping-as-global-leader-in-medical-research
• Just in case you’ll be in India. https://medium.com/@dhruv.presidency/overpopulation-
in-india-4132b9a347c
• Japan’s Population Problem.
https://www.japanfs.org/en/news/archives/news_id035317.html
• Average life expectancy in industrial and developing countries for those born in 2020, by
gender. https://www.statista.com/statistics/274507/life-expectancy-in-industrial-and-
developing-countries/

The Contemporary World

Demographic Transitions
P a g e |7