CCB & VCS Project Description

CCB Version 3.3, VCS Version 4.6

DELTA BLUE CARBON – 2

THE INDUS DELTA MANGROVE
RESTORATION PROJECT PHASE II

Project title Delta Blue Carbon – 2 (DBC-2)

Project ID 5063

Crediting period 14-August-2023 to 13-August-2083

Project lifetime 14-August-2023 to 13-August-2083; 60-year lifetime

(CCB) GHG accounting 14-August-2023 to 13-August-2083; 60-year lifetime

period

Original date of issue 8-July-2024

Most recent date of N/A

issue

Version 1.1

VCS Standard version 4.6

CCB Standards version 3.3

Project location Pakistan, Sindh Province

Project proponent(s) Blue Carbon Singapore Pte. Limited

The Gateway West, Level 35, 150 Beach Road, 189720, Singapore

Validation/verification AENOR INTERNACIONAL S.A.U.

body Mr. Jose Luis Fuentes
+34 914326000

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jfuentes@aenor.com

This is the first version for seeking validation under both the Climate,
History of CCB status
Community and Biodiversity Standard as well as the Verified Carbon Standard.

Gold Level criteria Delta Blue Carbon (DBC-2) will meet the Gold Level criteria for climate change
adaptation, exceptional community and biodiversity, and women
empowerment benefits, as summarised below.

Climate Change Adaptation Benefits

for Communities and Biodiversity
The DBC-2 project will generate multiple climate change adaptation benefits
for communities and biodiversity by helping reduce the risks and impacts of
climate related disasters through the restoration of mangrove habitat.
Disaster risk reduction benefits will accrue because coastal mangroves help
attenuate the wave energy of potential storms surges reducing the damaging
effects of floods and slowing the progression of saline water into inland areas.
The project will also reduce the vulnerability of local communities to the
multiple negative impacts of climate change by providing them with additional
and alternative means of livelihoods. For native flora and fauna, project
interventions will create additional and alternative habitats.
DBC-2 proponents will also help raise awareness and capacities among all
stakeholders relating to the value of wildlife and biodiversity conservation
thereby contributing to reduced human-wildlife conflict and reducing
fragmentation of wildlife.
Project activities that will contribute to the above stated goals include the
restoration of degraded and de-vegetated mangrove lands over an area of
193,495 hectares which will provide increased and diversified livelihood
sources for Project Zone communities on account of jobs creation in all
aspects of mangrove restoration work.
Biodiversity adaptation benefits will result from the restoration of habitat and
biodiversity corridors that will lead to greater feeding, breeding, and nesting
places for native taxa as well as increased protection due to the provision of
migration opportunities.

Community Benefits
There are 39 villages in the Project Zone with a population of 23,185 and
2,570 households. They meet the definition of smallholder/marginal groups
as defined by international and national standards of deprivation, poverty and
marginality. More than 70% of the people in the Project Zone live below the

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poverty line and survive on less than US$ 1.25 a day (2005 purchasing power
parity).
Most communities lack access to safe and affordable drinking water and are
deprived of basic education and health and hygiene facilities. They also lack
proper housing and shelter facilities and are highly vulnerable to various types
of disasters, including cyclones, floods, and droughts.
The project will implement various community development activities which
will generate both short-term and long-term benefits for all community groups
including women and vulnerable/marginalised groups.
Activities to be implemented include training in alternative livelihoods earning
for both male and female community members, creation of employment and
business opportunities in mangrove restoration and conservation works.
Living standards will be improved for Project Zone communities by providing
better access to health facilities, access to safe and affordable drinking water
facilities and provision of civic facilities. Foundational work will also begin
aimed at increasing access to educational, cultural and recreational/historical
facilities.
To achieve the above DBC-2 will organise both male and female community
members into broad-based and egalitarian village-level organisations in the
form of village development committees (VDCs) and women organisations
(WOs).

Biodiversity Benefits
DBC-2 is being implemented in the coastal portion of the Indus eco-region,
which is one of the 40 most biologically rich ecoregions in the world. The
Project Zone meets the Key Biodiversity Area (KBA) definition on account of
both vulnerability and irreversibility criteria.
It is characterised by the presence of threatened biodiversity, geographically
restricted biodiversity, ecological integrity, biological processes and
irreplaceability in a threatened arid zone mangrove ecosystem.
The region is home to 11 globally threatened species (according to the IUCN
Red List), including the Indian Ocean humpback dolphin (Sousa plumbea; EN),
the Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata; EN), the fishing cat (Prionailurus
viverrinus; VU), Steppe Eagle (Aquila nipalensis; EN), Cinereous Vulture
(Aegypius monachus; NT), and Indian Flapshell Turtle (Lissemys punctata; VU).
Compared to baseline situation, there will be an increase in population and
higher species diversity (both floral and faunal) as well as an increase in the
area of different biodiversity related High Conservation Value areas (HCV 1,2
and 3).

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Project activities that will contribute to biodiversity and HCV conservation

include restoration and sustainable management of degraded wetland
areas, identification and mapping of HCV areas, increased and effective law
enforcement, awareness raising, training and capacity building activities,
and mobilisation of human, technical, material and financial resources for
biodiversity and HCVs conservation.

Women Empowerment
The project has a special focus on elevating the socio-economic status of
women through increased income and livelihood sources, skills building,
access to knowledge, educational, health, hygiene, and drinking water
resources, food and environmental security. Key to this is the provision of
opportunities for greater roles in decision making and leadership.
Project activities will contribute to the realisation of multiple SDGs including
SDG1 (No Poverty), SDG2 (Zero Hunger), SDG3 (Good Health and Well-
Being), SDG4 (Quality Education), SDG5 (Gender Equality) SDG6 (Clean
Water and Sanitation), SDG8 (Decent Work), and SDG10 (Reduced
Inequalities)

Expected verification N/A

schedule

Prepared by Caelum Environmental Solutions

Silvestrum Climate Associates
The Government of Sindh

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CONTENTS

1 Summary of Project Benefits ....................................................................................... 12

1.1 Unique Project Benefits............................................................................................................... 12
1.2 Standardized Benefit Metrics...................................................................................................... 13

2 Project Details ............................................................................................................. 17

2.1 Project Goals, Design and Long-Term Viability ............................................................................ 17
2.2 Without-project Land Use Scenario and Additionality ................................................................. 60
2.3 Safeguards and Stakeholder Engagement ................................................................................. 64
2.4 Management Capacity ................................................................................................................ 91
2.5 Legal Status and Property Rights ................................................................................................ 98
2.6 Additional Information Relevant to the Project ......................................................................... 108

3 Climate ...................................................................................................................... 109

3.1 Application of Methodology ....................................................................................................... 109
3.2 Quantification of Estimated GHG Emission Reductions and Removals .................................... 128
3.3 Monitoring ................................................................................................................................. 165
3.4 Optional Criterion: Climate Change Adaptation Benefits .......................................................... 195

4 Community ................................................................................................................ 205

4.1 Without-Project Community Scenario........................................................................................ 205
4.2 Net Positive Community Impacts .............................................................................................. 217
4.3 Other Stakeholder Impacts ....................................................................................................... 224
4.4 Community Impact Monitoring .................................................................................................. 225
4.5 Optional Criterion: Exceptional Community Benefits ................................................................ 226

5 Biodiversity ................................................................................................................ 242

5.1 Without-Project Biodiversity Scenario ....................................................................................... 242
5.2 Net Positive Biodiversity Impacts .............................................................................................. 258
5.3 Offsite Biodiversity Impacts....................................................................................................... 263
5.4 Biodiversity Impact Monitoring.................................................................................................. 263
5.5 Optional Criterion: Exceptional Biodiversity Benefits ................................................................ 264

Appendix 1: Stakeholder Description Table ...................................................................... 269

Appendix 2: Socio-Economic Characteristics of Project Zone Communities....................... 274
Appendix 3: PRAS, SBIA Workshops, FPIC Meetings ......................................................... 280
Appendix 4: Commercially Sensitive Information .............................................................. 286

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Appendix 5: Stakeholder Analysis ..................................................................................... 287

Appendix 6: Training and Capacity Building ...................................................................... 291
Appendix 7: Coastal Wetland Soil Carbon Stock Accounting Tool ...................................... 294
Appendix 8: Application of The Coastal Wetland SOC Tool in The Indus Delta ................... 298
Appendix 9: Estimated Areas Under Red Rice Cultivation in The Indus Delta .................... 303
Appendix 10: Projection of Future Conditions in The Baseline and Project Scenarios ....... 305
Appendix 11: Pre-Project Land Cover and Vegetation Development.................................. 316
Appendix 12: Mangrove Canopy Cover Development ........................................................ 322
Appendix 13: Non-Permanence Risk Analysis ................................................................... 323
5.6 Internal Risk .............................................................................................................................. 323
5.7 External Risk ............................................................................................................................. 336
5.8 Natural Risk............................................................................................................................... 342
5.9 Overall Non-Permanence Risk Rating and Buffer Determination ............................................. 345

Appendix 14: Mangrove Growth Curve for Ex-Ante Calculations ........................................ 346
Appendix 15: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Indus Delta ............................ 350
Appendix 16: CCB Community Monitoring Plan................................................................. 354
Appendix 17: CCB Biodiversity Monitoring Plan for Biodiversity Benefits and Conservation of
High Conservation Value (HCV) Areas ............................................................................... 380
Appendix 18: List Of Endemic Plant Species Found in Sindh Province .............................. 389
Appendix 19: Biodiversity Survey ...................................................................................... 392
Appendix 20: SBIA Workshop Design ................................................................................ 438
Appendix 21: Stakeholder Identification Table ................................................................. 444

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List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

Abbreviation/Acronym Description/Explanation

AD Activity data

AFOLU Agriculture, forestry and other land use

AGB Aboveground biomass

ARR Afforestation, reforestation and re-vegetation

AUDD Avoided unplanned forest degradation and deforestation

BD Bulk density

BSL Baseline

C Carbon

CBD Convention on Biological Diversity

CCB Climate, Community and Biodiversity

CCBS Climate, Community and Biodiversity Standard

CH4 Methane

CIFOR Centre for International Forestry Research

CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora

and Fauna

CIW Conservation of intact or partially degraded wetlands

CO2 Carbon dioxide

CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent

CPDE Carbon preservation depositional environment

CR Critically endangered (IUCN Red List)

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CSO Civil society organisation

DEM Digital elevation model

DM Dry matter

DRM Disasters risk management

DRR Disaster risk reduction

EN Endangered (IUCN Red List)

ER Emission reduction

EU European Union

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FDG Focus group discussion

FPIC Free, prior and informed consent

FSC Fishery Stewardship Council

GHG Greenhouse gas

GIS Geographic information system

GM Grievance manager

GMO Genetically modified organism

HCV High Conservation Value

IBAs Important bird areas

IFL Intact forest landscapes

IFM Improved forest management

ILO International Labour Organization

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IPAs Important plant areas

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

KBA Key biodiversity area

LFA Log frame analysis

MFF Mangroves for the Future

MoU Memorandum of understanding

MRV Monitoring, reporting and verification

MSA Mangrove Stewardship Agreement

MU Management unit

NDC Nationally determined contribution

NDMA National Disaster Management Authority

NGO Non-governmental organisation

N2O Nitrous oxide

NTFP Non-timber forest product

PoA Programme of activities

P&C Principles and criteria

PD Project description

PFI Pakistan Forest Institute

PLA Participatory learning and action

PRA Participatory rural appraisal

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QA/QC Quality assurance and quality control

RCP Representative concentration pathway – time-dependent projection of

atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations

REDD+ Reducing emissions from deforestation, forests degradation, sustainable

forest management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks

RRA Rapid rural appraisal

RTE Rare, threatened or endangered

RTK Real time kinematic - technique enhancing the precision of position data
derived from satellite-based positioning systems

RWE Restoration of wetland ecosystems

SBIA Social and biodiversity impact assessment

SDG Sustainable development goal

SLR Sea level rise

SO Social organisation

SOC Soil organic carbon

SOP Standard operating procedure

TNC The Nature Conservancy

UN United Nations

UNDP United Nations Development Program

UNEP United Nations Environment Program

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

US$ United States dollar

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VCS Verified Carbon Standard

VCU Verified carbon unit

VDC Village development committee

VER Verified emission reduction

VO Village organisation

VU Vulnerable (IUCN Red List)

VVB Validation and verification body

WHO World Health Organization

WO Women organisation

WPS (With-) project scenario

WRC Wetland restoration and conservation

WRI World Resources Institute

WWF World-Wide Fund for Nature

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1 Summary of Project Benefits

1.1 Unique Project Benefits

Outcome or impact estimated by the end of project lifetime

reference
Section
1) Improved protection of communities and landscapes from storm surges, other
coastal hazards, and climate disasters. 3.4.3
(HCV-4): Villages = 2; Population = 890

2) Significant increase in fish, shrimps and crab production due to increase in

5.1.2;
breeding and spawning places for marine life.
5.2.1
(HCV-5): Villages 26; Population = 11,202

3) Conservation of Historical and Cultural Heritage Sites and Cultural Artefacts.

4.1.3
(HCV-6): Villages = 3; Population = 1,457

4) Community benefits from community-based natural resource management. 4.1.3;

(HCVs 4 and 5): Communities = 39; Population = 23,185 4.2.3

5) Provision of Recreational Services because of Aesthetic Values and Iconic

Seascapes. Tidal wetlands are iconic landscapes and seascapes with immense
aesthetic values and opportunities for recreation, spiritualism, and social well-being 4.2.4
of local communities.
(HCV-6); Villages = 2; Population = 377

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1.2 Standardized Benefit Metrics

Category Metric Estimated by the end of project

reference
Section
lifetime

Net estimated removals in the 120,829,435 tCO 2e 3.2.4

reductions or carbon
dioxide removals

Project Area, measured against

GHG emission

the without-project scenario

Net estimated reductions in the Not Applicable

Project Area, measured against
the without-project scenario

For REDD2 projects: Estimated Not Applicable

number of hectares of reduced
forest loss in the Project Area
measured against the without-
Forest1 cover

project scenario

For ARR 3 projects: Estimated 193,495 ha 3.1.3

number of hectares of forest
cover increased in the Project
Area measured against the
without-project scenario

Number of hectares of existing Not Applicable

Improved land
management

production forest land in which

IFM4 practices are expected to
occur as a result of project
activities, measured against the
without-project scenario

1Land with woody vegetation that meets an internationally accepted definition (e.g., UNFCCC, FAO, or IPCC) of what constitutes a forest,
which includes threshold parameters, such as minimum forest area, tree height and level of crown cover, and may include mature,
secondary, degraded and wetland forests (VCS Program Definitions)

2Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) - Activities that reduce GHG emissions by slowing or stopping
conversion of forests to non-forest land and/or reduce the degradation of forest land where forest biomass is lost (VCS Program
Definitions)

3Afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR) - Activities that increase carbon stocks in woody biomass (and in some cases soils) by
establishing, increasing and/or restoring vegetative cover through the planting, sowing and/or human-assisted natural regeneration of
woody vegetation (VCS Program Definitions)

4Improved forest management (IFM) - Activities that change forest management practices and increase carbon stock on forest lands
managed for wood products such as saw timber, pulpwood, and fuelwood (VCS Program Definitions)

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Number of hectares of non- Not Applicable

forest land in which improved
land management practices are
expected to occur as a result of
project activities, measured
against the without-project
scenario

Total number of community 8,500 4.5.2

members who are expected to
have improved skills and/or
knowledge resulting from
training provided as part of
project activities
Training

Number of female community 3,200 4.5.2

members who are expected to
have improved skills and/or
knowledge resulting from
training as part of project
activities

Total number of people expected 4,700 4.5.2

to be employed in project
activities 5, expressed as number
Employment

of full-time employees 6

Number of women expected to 1,000 4.5.2

be employed as a result of
project activities, expressed as
number of full-time employees

Total number of people expected 10,300 4.5.2

Livelihoods

to have improved livelihoods 7 or

income generated as a result of
project activities

5 Employed in project activities means people directly working on project activities in return for compensation (financial or otherwise),
including employees, contracted workers, sub-contracted workers and community members that are paid to carry out project-related work.

6Full time equivalency is calculated as the total number of hours worked (by full-time, part-time, temporary and/or seasonal staff) divided
by the average number of hours worked in full-time jobs within the country, region or economic territory (adapted from the UN System of
National Accounts (1993) paragraphs 17.14[15.102];[17.28])

7Livelihoods are the capabilities, assets (including material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living (Krantz,
Lasse, 2001. The Sustainable Livelihood Approach to Poverty Reduction. SIDA). Livelihood benefits may include benefits reported in the
Employment metrics of this table.

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Number of women expected to 1,500 4.5.2

have improved livelihoods or
income generated as a result of
project activities

Total number of people for whom 10,200 4.5.2

health services are expected to
improve as a result of project
activities, measured against the
without-project scenario
Health

Number of women for whom 5,500 4.5.2

health services are expected to
improve as a result of project
activities, measured against the
without-project scenario

Total number of people for whom 4,000 4.5.2

access to, or quality of,
education is expected to improve
as result of project activities,
measured against the without-
Education

project scenario

Number of women and girls for 2,500 4.5.2

whom access to, or quality of,
education is expected to improve
as result of project activities,
measured against the without-
project scenario

Total number of people who are 9,000 4.5.2

expected to experience
increased water quality and/or
improved access to drinking
water as a result of project
activities, measured against the
without-project scenario
Water

Number of women who are 5,000 4.5.2

expected to experience
increased water quality and/or
improved access to drinking
water as a result of project
activities, measured against the
without-project scenario

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Total number of community 11,300 4.5.2

members whose well-being 8 is
expected to improve as a result
Well-being

of project activities

Number of women whose well- 3,400 4.5.2;

being is expected to improve as 4.5.5
a result of project activities

Expected change in the number 193,495 ha 5.2.1

of hectares managed
significantly better by the project
Biodiversity conservation

for biodiversity conservation 9,

measured against the without-
project scenario

Expected number of globally 5 5.1.1;

Critically Endangered or Appendix
Endangered species 10 benefiting 19
from reduced threats as a result
of project activities 11, measured
against the without-project
scenario

8 Well-being is people’s experience of the quality of their lives. Well-being benefits may include benefits reported in other metrics of this
table (e.g. Training, Employment, Livelihoods, Health, Education and Water), and may also include other benefits such as strengthened
legal rights to resources, increased food security, conservation of access to areas of cultural significance, etc.

9Managed for biodiversity conservation in this context means areas where specific management measures are being implemented as a
part of project activities with an objective of enhancing biodiversity conservation, e.g. enhancing the status of endangered species

10 Per IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species

11 In the absence of direct population or occupancy measures, measurement of reduced threats may be used as evidence of benefit

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2 Project Details
2.1 Project Goals, Design and Long-Term Viability

2.1.1 Summary Description of the Project (VCS, 3.2, 3.6, 3.10, 3.11, 3.13, 3.14; CCB, G1.2)

The Delta Blue Carbon Project – Phase 2 (DBC-2) is a public-private partnership initiative involving the
Government of Sindh, Caelum Environmental Solutions, and Pollination Group. This initiative aims to
mitigate and adapt to climate change, conserve and sustainably manage marine and coastal biodiversity,
contribute to various sustainable development goals, and empower women in the Project Zone. The Project
Zone encompasses 250,000 hectares in the Sindh Indus Delta Region, located in the Sujawal and Badin
districts of Sindh Province in southeastern Pakistan. This delta, a vast network of tidal river channels,
creeks, low-lying islands, mangrove forests, and inter-tidal areas, boasts the largest arid-climate mangrove
forest globally and holds significant ecological importance as a WWF Global 200 ecoregion. It supports
unique animal and plant species and serves as the primary migration route for thousands of birds crossing
the Himalayas.

The ARR/RWE Project Area within the delta is of High Conservation Value (see Section 5.1.2). The project
supports the livelihoods of 39 villages surrounding the Project Area, encompassing approximately 2,570
households and 23,185 individuals. Over decades, the mangrove forests in the Indus Delta have suffered
extensive deforestation and degradation due to changes in hydrology as well as commercial harvesting of
mangrove trees and activities such as fuelwood collection, unregulated open range livestock grazing, and
cutting of green tree branches and leaves for fodder use (see Section 4.1.4).

In response to these threats, the Government of Sindh, through its Forest and Wildlife Department,
partnered with Caelum Environmental Solutions to create DBC-2.

To date, 8,000 hectares have been restored in the Project Area through mangrove plantations and a total
of 193,495 hectares are planned for restoration. The restoration efforts are implemented in partnership
with local communities and employ ecological practices that mimic the natural regeneration processes of
mangrove ecosystems. A ward and watch system, formalised through Mangrove Stewardship Agreements
(MSAs) with community groups makes the local communities custodians of restored as well as existing
natural forest and biodiversity. This also provides additional income to these communities.

Stakeholder identification for DBC-2 was conducted through participatory rural appraisals and
comprehensive SBIA workshops (see Section 2.1.8). The project’s objectives include (see Section 2.1.17)
upscaled mangrove reforestation, conservation of coastal and marine biodiversity, sustainable fishing,
participatory planning and awareness raising, improved access to education, safe drinking water, and
healthcare. It also aims to enhance protection and law enforcement, foster community-based business
development and microfinance access, promote sustainable energy development, and provide training and
capacity building for the local communities, other stakeholders and Sindh Forest Department. Additionally,
the project focuses on gender development and income-generating activities for women.

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The project’s jurisdiction, Pakistan, is not covered by a jurisdictional REDD+ program. The project’s climate
benefits include the sequestration of an estimated 120,829,435tCO2e over its lifetime of 60 years at an
estimated average of 2,013,823 tCO2e annually (see Section 2.1.13).

2.1.2 Audit History (VCS, 4.1)

Audit type Period Program Validation/verification Number

body name of years

Validation August 15, 2024 VCS/CCB Aenor One year

2.1.3 Sectoral Scope and Project Type (VCS, 3.2)

Sectoral scope 14: Agriculture, forestry, and other land use

ARR, WRC
AFOLU project category 12

ARR, RWE
Project activity type

2.1.4 Project Eligibility (VCS, 3.1, 3.6, 3.8, 3.18, 4.1; CCB Program Rules, 4.2.4, 4.6.4)

The project meets the eligibility requirements of both the VCS and CCB standards. Specifically:

1. The project impacts several of the seven Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gases (See Section
3.3.3)

2. The project has clear objectives to generate climate, community and biodiversity benefits

3. The project activities are supported by a methodology, VM0033, approved under the VCS
program through the methodology development and review process

4. The project has not generated any GHG emissions for the purpose of creating subsequent
reductions or removals

5. The project does not include any of the excluded categories listed in VCS Standard 4.6
section 2.1.3.

6. The project activities are included under VCS Sectoral Scope 14: AFOLU. Project activities
are described in section 2.1.17 and fall into the WRC and ARR subcategories.

12 See Appendix 1 of the VCS Standard

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7. The project has conducted thorough stakeholder engagement, incorporated stakeholder

input, developed a grievance redress mechanism, held public consultations and solicited
public comment periods as required by the standard and FPIC best practices. Public
consultations are described in section 2.3 of this document and public comment notices
are found on the VCS Registry.

8. The project is using VM0033 v2.1, which is the latest version and is currently listed as an
eligible method by the VCS Standard.

9. The project does not lead to the violation of any applicable laws (See Section 2.5.1)

10. The project shall receive validation reports and statements under both standards within
one year of public comment period

11. The public comment period should be completed before the start of the
validation/verification body site visit and any comments shall receive full consideration

12. The project is initiating pipeline listing within three years of the project start date and
validation within 8 years of the project start date.

13. The project is following the validation and verification procedures outlined in Section 4.1 of
the VCS Standard Version 4.6 in collaboration with a certified VVB.

2.1.5 Transfer Project Eligibility (VCS, 3.23, Appendix 2)

Not Applicable

2.1.6 Project Design (VCS, 3.6)

Indicate if the project has been designed as:

☒ Single location or installation

2.1.6.1 Eligibility Criteria for Grouped Projects (VCS, 3.6; CCB, G1.14)

Not Applicable

2.1.7 Project Proponent (VCS, 3.7; CCB, G1.1)

Organisation name Blue Carbon Singapore Pte. Limited

Contact person Nadeem Khan

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Title Chief Executive Officer

Address The Gateway West, Level 35, 150 Beach Road, 189720, Singapore

Telephone +021-38887036

Email Nadeem.khan@deltabluecarbon.com

2.1.8 Other Entities Involved in the Project

Organisation name Pollination Carbon Investments Limited

Role in the project Project Partner

Contact person Ashley Woods

Title General Counsel & Head of Corporate Development

Address C/- Level 2, 43 Whitfield Street, London, W1T 4HD, London, United
Kingdom

Email ashley.woods@pollinationgroup.com

Organisation name Caelum Environmental Solutions Pakistan (Private) Limited

Role in the project Project Partner

Contact person Mr Nadeem Khan

Title CEO
DBC House, 2-C Zulfiqar Commercial Street 6, DHA Phase 8 - Karachi -
Address
75500, Pakistan

Telephone +021-38887036

Email nadeem.khan@deltabluecarbon.com

Organisation name Government Of Sindh Forest and Wildlife Department

Role in the project Project Partner

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Contact person Mr Riaz Wagan

Title Chief Conservator of Forests, Sindh (Mangroves and Rangelands)

Address Secretary Forest and Wildlife Department, Barrack-No.10, Block-4A,

Sindh Secretariat, Karachi, Pakistan

Telephone +92 2199203105 or +92 3002391663

Email Info@sindhforests.gov.pk

Organization name Silvestrum Climate Associates B.V.

Role in the project Advisor

Contact person Dr. Igino Emmer

Title Principal, Carbon Project Development

Address Dorpsstraat 4, 1546LJ, Jisp, Netherlands.

Telephone +31 653699610

Email Igino.emmer@silvestrum.com

Organization name Pakistan Forest Institute (PFI)

Role in the project Advisor

Contact person Dr. Anwar Ali

Title Director Forestry Research

Address Post Office Forest College University of Peshawar, Pakistan

Telephone +92 919216123

Email dfrd@pfi.gov.pk

2.1.9 Project Ownership (VCS, 3.2, 3.7, 3.10; CCB, G5.8)

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All lands in the Project Area are classified as Protected Forests and are state property. Therefore, their
ownership vests in the Government of Sindh. Carbon rights are vested to the project proponent through a
Public-Private Partnership Agreement (PPP) signed with the Government of Sindh which will be made
available to the VVB.

2.1.10 Project Start Date (VCS, 3.8)

Project start date 14-August-2023

Justification The project start date is the date on which activities that lead to the
generation of reductions or removals are implemented. First planting
occurred on 14 August 2023

2.1.11 Benefits Assessment and Project Crediting Period (VCS, 3.9; CCB, G1.9)

Crediting The crediting period is aligned to the project start date and exceeds the
period minimum 40-year crediting period for AFOLU projects.

Start date of 14-August-2023 to 13-August-2083

first or fixed
crediting
period

CCB benefits 14-August-2023 to 13-August-2083

assessment
period

2.1.12 Differences in Assessment/Project Crediting Periods (CCB, G1.9)

Not Applicable

2.1.13 Project Scale and Estimated Reductions or Removals (VCS, 3.10)

☒ < 300,000 tCO 2e/year (project)

☒ ≥ 300,000 tCO 2e/year (large project)

Calendar year of crediting period Estimated reductions or removals (tCO 2e)

14-August-2023 to 13-August-2024 31,503

14-August-2024 to 13-August-2025 179,160

14-August-2025 to 13-August-2026 517,388

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14-August-2026 to 13-August-2027 842,287

14-August-2027 to 13-August-2028 1,744,999

14-August-2028 to 13-August-2029 2,552,693

14-August-2029 to 13-August-2030 3,438,340

14-August-2030 to 13-August-2031 4,384,786

14-August-2031 to 13-August-2032 4,873,289

14-August-2032 to 13-August-2033 5,906,904

14-August-2033 to 13-August-2034 6,329,702

14-August-2034 to 13-August-2035 6,561,329

14-August-2035 to 13-August-2036 6,639,109

14-August-2036 to 13-August-2037 6,183,316

14-August-2037 to 13-August-2038 6,458,621

14-August-2038 to 13-August-2039 6,252,196

14-August-2039 to 13-August-2040 5,995,551

14-August-2040 to 13-August-2041 5,706,186

14-August-2041 to 13-August-2042 3,725,558

14-August-2042 to 13-August-2043 5,077,198

14-August-2043 to 13-August-2044 4,755,256

14-August-2044 to 13-August-2045 4,436,801

14-August-2045 to 13-August-2046 4,126,211

14-August-2046 to 13-August-2047 2,093,772

14-August-2047 to 13-August-2048 3,540,326

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14-August-2048 to 13-August-2049 3,268,659

14-August-2049 to 13-August-2050 3,012,482

14-August-2050 to 13-August-2051 2,772,155

14-August-2051 to 13-August-2052 803,662

14-August-2052 to 13-August-2053 2,338,815

14-August-2053 to 13-August-2054 2,145,085

14-August-2054 to 13-August-2055 1,965,901

14-August-2055 to 13-August-2056 1,800,576

14-August-2056 to 13-August-2057 (104,631)

14-August-2057 to 13-August-2058 474,247

14-August-2058 to 13-August-2059

14-August-2059 to 13-August-2060

14-August-2060 to 13-August-2061

14-August-2061 to 13-August-2062

14-August-2062 to 13-August-2063

14-August-2063 to 13-August-2064 -

14-August-2064 to 13-August-2065 -

14-August-2065 to 13-August-2066 -

14-August-2066 to 13-August-2067 -

14-August-2067 to 13-August-2068 -

14-August-2068 to 13-August-2069 -

14-August-2069 to 13-August-2070 -

14-August-2070 to 13-August-2071 -

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14-August-2071 to 13-August-2072 -

14-August-2072 to 13-August-2073 -

14-August-2073 to 13-August-2074 -

14-August-2074 to 13-August-2075 -

14-August-2075 to 13-August-2076 -

14-August-2076 to 13-August-2077 -

14-August-2077 to 13-August-2078 -

14-August-2078 to 13-August-2079 -

14-August-2079 to 13-August-2080 -

14-August-2080 to 13-August-2081 -

14-August-2081 to 13-August-2082 -

14-August-2082 to 13-August-2083 -

Total estimated ERRs during the crediting 120,829,435

period

Total number of years 60

Average annual ERRs 2,013,823

2.1.14 Physical Parameters (CCB, G1.3)

Table 1. Project Area Extent Boundaries.

Extent Boundary Location (Easting, Northing UTM Zone 42N)

Northern Extent GPS Point 68°43'8.019"E, 24°26'14.351"N

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24.43732003, 68.71889417

Eastern Extent GPS Point 68°11'2.344"E, 23°53'54.072"N

23.89835333,
68.18398444

Southern Extent GPS Point 68°11'35.19"E, 23°53'4.5"N

23.88458333, 68.1931083

Western Extent GPS Point 68°47'21.171"E, 24°20'52.163"N

24.34782306, 68.78921417

2.1.14.1 Topography

The Indus Delta and its surrounding coastal region is located in the southeastern part of Sindh Province,
Pakistan. This area stretches from the Indian border near Sir Creek in the east to the border of Baluchistan
Province in the west. The delta has two major sections: the Northern Block and the larger Southern Block.

The Indus River, responsible for shaping this vast delta, meets the Arabian Sea just east of Karachi,
Pakistan's largest city. The river drains a massive 300,000 square kilometres of land, with half of that area
lying outside Pakistan in neighbouring `countries. It is the world’s fifth largest delta.

This delta is the heart and soul of the Sindh coast. Its unique landscape features a network of tidal creeks,
constantly changing due to the river's flow. Numerous islands, both small and large, dot the delta, some
covered in dense mangrove forests, while others have sparser vegetation. Mangroves in the Indus Delta
are the world's largest arid zone mangrove ecosystem.

Karachi's coastline stretches roughly 100 kilometres, wedged between the Indus Delta to the southeast
and the Hub River to the west. This coastal area is mostly sparsely vegetated, with the exception of
mangrove wetlands.

The sediment carried by the Indus River feeds a vast underwater feature called the Indus Fan. This massive
fan stretches 1500 kilometres south and is the world's second largest sediment body.

The Indus Delta itself is a complex ecosystem. It comprises 17 major creeks, numerous smaller ones, and
extensive areas of mangrove forests and tidal wetlands. The mangrove forests alongside the degraded and
de-vegetated wetlands/mangrove land cover a staggering 667,209 hectares.

The delta's health depends heavily on the freshwater flowing from the Indus River, supplemented by a
small amount of freshwater coming from Karachi's and other towns domestic, industrial waters and water
run-off from agricultural lands as well as surrounding catchment areas.

2.1.14.2 Soils

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Soils in the Indus Delta are not organic peatlands but are instead mineral soils having substantial
autochthonous organic carbon result from the decomposition of mangrove leaf litter and other resident soil
dwelling biotic organisms. The soil depth changes depending on how much sediment is deposited or
eroded. These well-drained soils sit on low-lying areas. The unique shape of the Indus Delta is due to the
combined effects of river and the ocean.

For thousands of years, the Indus Delta formed in a dry climate with a powerful river, medium tides (2.6
meters), very strong waves (14 x 10^9 ergs/second), and seasonal winds blowing from the southwest in
summer and northeast in winter. The resulting soils are sandy and have a lobed shape. They don't support
much plant growth and are cut through by many streams and tidal channels. The delta has been slowly
expanding seaward by about 30 meters a year over the past 5,000 years.

The Indus Delta's shape is somewhere between a river-dominated delta (with long, finger-like branches)
and a wave-dominated delta (with beaches, ridges, and deposits down the coast). Sand forms the base of
the exposed delta, while silt and clay fill in old channels, form the outer delta shelf, and settle down the
eastern coast. The Indus River's larger particles mostly stay on the inner shelf or get carried away by a deep
underwater canyon.

Since the strongest flow of the river happens during the southwest monsoon, most fine-grained sediment
gets washed south-eastward into an area called the Runs of Kutch. Human-built structures for irrigation
have reduced the amount of sediment carried by the river to 13 billion metric tons per year. This decrease,
along with the very strong waves, has led to the Indus Delta being reshaped by waves. The final result is a
delta dominated by waves, characterised by a sandy area that's transgressed (or pushed over) and covered
by extensive wind-blown sand dunes (as explained by Wells and Coleman in 1985)13.

2.1.14.3 Climate, Precipitation, and Hydrology

The coastal regions of Pakistan are historically arid, receiving minimal rainfall. Recently, however, rainfall
has increased due to climatic changes. On the coast of Sindh, the average annual rainfall is about 200
mm. The southwest monsoon season lasts from May to September, while the northeast monsoon lasts
from November to March, with April and October serving as transition months. During the southwest
monsoons, wind speeds range from 25-30 knots, whereas during the northeast monsoons, they range from
5-10 knots.

As a result, the atmospheric and oceanic circulation during the southwest monsoon is more vigorous than
during the northeast monsoon. The southwest monsoon circulation penetrates deeper, affecting water
mass movements below the thermocline, whereas the northeast monsoon drift is relatively shallow. The
tides are mixed semidiurnal, featuring two highs and two lows each day, with high tide reaching up to 2.6
meters.

Surface air temperatures range between 23.8°C and 28.7°C in the delta area of the Project Area and
between 23.5°C and 29.1°C in Karachi. There has been no definite trend observed regarding cyclonic

13
Technical Report No. 424 deltaic morphology and sedimentology with special reference to the Indus
River Delta. J T Wells and J M Coleman 1985.

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storms and severe cyclonic storms. The Indus Delta receives fresh water and sediment from the Indus
River, which flows through the delta before emptying into the Arabian Sea.

2.1.14.4 Historical freshwater and sediment supply into the Indus Delta area

Under natural conditions, the Indus River carried one of the world's largest sediment loads, creating a vast
delta along the high-energy Arabian Sea coast. However, since the mid-1950s, large-scale damming activity
has altered the sediment discharge to the delta (see Table 2). The present-day river and delta have been
significantly impacted by: (1) dams constructed upstream, (2) barrages and their irrigation canals, (3)
artificial flood levees, (4) sediment impoundment behind upstream reservoirs, and (5) inter-basin diversion.

Previously, the silt-laden river transported between 270 million to 600 million metric tonnes of sediment
annually to its delta (Haq and Millman, 1986)14. Today, it carries around 13 million metric tonnes per year.
Upstream activities have also reduced the annual freshwater flow downstream, from over 126 billion m³ in
the 1950s to about 10 billion m³ currently.

The extensive canal irrigation system initially caused significant issues with waterlogging and salinity.
Approximately 60% of the aquifer beneath the Indus Delta is of marginal to brackish quality. To combat
rising groundwater levels and the related problems of waterlogging and salinity, a network of drainage
canals was constructed to channel groundwater directly to the Arabian Sea. However, this drainage system
has been less effective due to the flat topography's low gradient, leading to seawater intrusion up to 80 km
upstream (Panhwar, 1999)15.

The increase in salinity due to reduced freshwater flow has diminished the inland delta's suitability for
agricultural and horticultural crops and livestock grazing, resulting in more intertidal areas now being
suitable for mangroves instead. Historically, large-scale mangrove harvesting, open-range grazing, and the
collection of mangrove leaves and branches for fodder by local communities have degraded the mangrove
ecosystem due to reduced water flow and direct human impact (Inam et al., 2007)16. The effects of
upstream construction of dams and barrages are summarized in the tables below.

Table 2Table 2. Major Dams and Barrages on Indus River.

Maximum discharge capacity (m3s-

Structure Year of construction 1)

14
Haq B.U. and John D. Milliman, 1986. Marine geology and oceanography of Arabian Sea and coastal
Pakistan.
15
Panhwar, M.H. 1999. Seepage of water of Indus River and occurrence of fresh ground water in Sindh.
In: Meadows, A. and Meadows, P (Eds.) The Indus River: Biodiversity, Resources, Humankind. Oxford
University Press, Dehli, pp.180-197.
16
Inam, A., Peter, D., Cliff Liviu Giosan, Ali Rashid Tabrez, Muhammad Tahir, Muhammad Moazam
Rabbain and Muhammad Danish, 2007. The Geographic, Geological and Oceanographic Setting of the
Indus River. In Large Rivers: Geomorphology and Management, Edited by A Gupta, 2007, John Wiley
and Sons, Ltd.

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Dams

Mangla Dam 1967 24,630

Tarbela Dam 1976 18,386

Ghazi Barotha Hydropower 2004 500,000

Project

Barrages

Sukkur Barrage 1932 1,500,000

Jinnah Barrage 1946 950,000

Kotri Barrage 1955 875,000

Taunsa Barrage 1959 750,000

Guddu Barrage 1962 1,200,000

Chashma Barrage 1971 1,100,000

Average annual water Average annual sediment discharge

Period
discharge (109m3) (109 tonnes)

1931-1954 107 193

1955-1962 126 149

1963-1967 72 85

1968-1976 47 82

1977-1997 45 51

1998-2003 10 13

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In addition to the Indus River, there are two other key sources of sediment for the Indus Delta. The first is
sediment from the catchment areas of various smaller streams downstream of the Kotri barrage, which
flows into the delta unimpeded. The second source is the sediment from surrounding agricultural fields.
The rate of soil accretion in the Indus Delta surpasses the rate of erosion, resulting in net soil formation.

To conserve water and enhance irrigation efficiency, Pakistan is investing in canal and irrigation channel
lining (through irrigation departments and their programs), laser-levelling farmers' fields (via on-farm water
management programs) and promoting water-smart agriculture through technology transfer and capacity
building (by agriculture research, extension, and mechanization departments). These efforts are expected
to improve the country's irrigation system and ensure greater water availability even during low-flow periods.

Water management decisions consider the needs of both farmers and delta residents, as well as the
impacts on various socio-economic groups and food security. The Government of Pakistan has signed a
legally binding Water Accord17, with the federation and all four provinces as signatories, which includes
provisions to ensure the release of environmentally required water inflows into the Delta Area. Both the
Sindh Province and the Federal Government regularly monitor and ensure the committed river water is
released into the Delta, recognizing the coastal zone's economic importance to the country and Sindh
Province.

The wetland and mangrove ecosystem in the delta has adapted to the current sediment and freshwater
regimes, as evidenced by the thriving mangrove ecosystem and the success of the Delta Blue Carbon 1
(DBC-1) planting project. Although reduced water and sediment discharge below the Kotri barrage, located
between Jamshoro and Hyderabad, was hypothesized to have environmental, social, and economic
consequences such as increased seawater intrusion and coastal erosion, increased rainfall has offset
these initial reductions. The deltaic ecosystem has adjusted to the new conditions.

The health of the Indus Delta mangrove ecosystem can be assessed through various physical, chemical,
and biological factors that collectively indicate its well-being and functionality. The soil characteristics,
including texture, structure, chemical composition, and fertility, are conducive to the growth of mangrove
species in the region. This suitability, despite recent reductions in water discharge and increased salinity,
is demonstrated by the success of the DBC-1 planting, which is adjacent to the DBC-2 Project Zone. The
project design and tree species selected for the specific regional characteristics have resulted in thriving
forests.

2.1.14.5 Vegetation

The predominant vegetation in the Indus Delta is mangrove forest. Historically, eight species of mangroves
have been recorded (although no authentic source is available either in the literature or field studies to
support this). Currently only four mangrove species are found in the delta. The most common species is
Avicennia marina. Other species include Rhizophora mucronata, Ceriops tagal, and Aegiceras
corniculatum. Within the Indus Delta area, there are two classes of mangrove forests: Dense Mangroves
and Sparse Mangroves. Additionally, there are vast chunks of highly degraded and de-vegetated wetland
area are that are targeted under the project for reforestation and assisted natural regeneration to enhance
forest cover.

17
IRSA Act No. XXII of 1992. Indus River System Authority Act of Government of Pakistan.

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Dense Mangroves, primarily found in narrow rectangular blocks along creeks, are dominated by Avicennia
marina, along with Rhizophora mucronata and Ceriops tagal. Avicennia marina can grow up to 9 meters
tall and have a canopy cover of 50 cm². Other non-mangrove tree vegetation found in high-lying and non-
intertidal zones includes Tamarix spp, Acacia nilotica, and Prosopis juliflora. Understory plants like
Calotropis procera, Atriplex griffithii, Aerva javanica, and Polycarpaea corymbosa are also occasionally
present.

Sparse Mangroves are mostly found in dry, sandy areas such as dunes along the coastline. Other vegetation
in the delta primarily consists of shrubs, including Suaeda fruticosa, Salsola barysoma, Abutilon indicum,
Sericostoma pauciflorum, Cressa cretica, Heliotropium undulatum, H. curassavicum, Solanum surattense,
Cyperus conglomeratus, and various grasses. The Project Area has very sparse vegetation, with isolated
mangrove trees or vegetation along creeks. Most of the area is barren land or has small patches of low salt-
tolerant Oryza coarctata grass.

From 2015 to 2023, the DBC-1 project has planted approximately 103,000 hectares of degraded land,
while the DBC-2 project has planted 8,000 hectares of mangroves in the coastal region.

Figure 1. Typical Landscape Features of the Project Area showing barren land and area where
planting/restoration activity is being undertaken.

Table 3. Mangrove and Non-Mangrove Vegetation types of the Indus Delta Region.18

Vegetation type Characteristics

A vast area of Avicennia marina is found near the shoreline and on the
fringes of creek systems in the intertidal zone. Other non-mangrove
Avicennia marina species found in the fringes and inland areas other than the intertidal
dominated forests zone include Arthrocnemum macrostachyum, Aeluropus lagopoides,
Sporobolus virginicus, occasional Salvadora persica, and Oryza
(82,000 ha)
coarctata. The latter three species are mostly found in those creeks on

18
Table 4 summarises the range of vegetation types within the Indus Delta area. Due to the
degradation described above, many of these historical ranges are now denuded of trees.

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high lying areas, where river water flows during the flood season.

This type of forest is found in hyper-saline areas with Avicennia marina is

the dominant mangrove species. Non-mangrove species found in the
Avicennia marina inland areas outside the intertidal zone include Arthrocnemum.
dominated forests in Aeluropus and Sporobolus.
hyper-saline areas

(30,000 ha)

This mixed forest type predominantly arises through the plantation of

Rhizophora mucronata on de-vegetated and degraded delta lands. Areas
Rhizophora where they are found tend to be regularly inundated and therefore have
mucronata and lower salinity. Due to natural regeneration a mix of around fifty percent
Avicennia marina Avicennia and fifty percent Rhizophora species develops. The
mixed surrounding non-intertidal zone has non-mangrove vegetation such as
Salvadora oleoides, Tamarix aphylla and Calligonum polygonoides.
(61,8000 ha)

This forest type is predominantly comprised of Rhizophora mucronata

that has been planted on blank de-vegetated and degraded islands.
Rhizophora Currently, the natural regeneration of Avicennia marina in this particular
mucronata area is negligible due to non-availability of Avicennia seed source. At the
dominated forest fringes in the non-intertidal zone, some non-mangrove vegetation is found
including Suaeda fruticosa and Salsola foetida.
(41,200 ha)

Studies in the literature on the extent, status and trends of mangroves in Pakistan and the Indus Delta
report quite variable estimates but show a declining trend until the start of DBC-1 project. The following
table gives estimates of mangrove forests in Pakistan as given in various study reports. 19

Table 4. Historical studies giving estimates of mangrove forest area in Pakistan.

Area
Study/Source Description/Reference Year
(ha)

19
Qamar, Mahmood Khalid. 2009. Mangroves of the Active Indus Delta-Changes and Their Causes.
Ph.D. Dissertation. National College of Business Administration & Economics, Lahore.

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Biodiversity Management Analysis of low-quality hard copy

380,000 1950
Information System (997) land use maps

Rough estimate. As reported in

Champion et al. (1965) Government of Pakistan. Forestry
400,000 1965
Sector Master Plan, Pakistan,
PAK/88/018

Tropical Forest Resources

Ministry of Food, Agriculture
Assessment Project, Forest
and Cooperatives (1981), 345,000 1980
Resources of Tropical Asia FAO,
Government of Pakistan
UNEP. pp 475

Secondary reference. No primary

Saenger et al. (1983) 249,500 1983
source provided

Government of Pakistan Secondary reference. No primary

280,000 1984
(1985) source provided

The Mangroves of Pakistan.1986.

Kogo et al. (1985) The Pakistan Journal of Forestry 283,000 1985
36(4)

Mirza et al. (1988) Mangroves of Baluchistan,

Pakistan: An Overview. Pakistan
250,233 1988
Journal of Marine Biology (Mar.
Res.), 5(2):195-200, 1999

Government of Pakistan Remote sensing

207,000 1990
(1992)

UNESCO (1992) Protected Areas with Mangrove

Habitat. Draft Report. World
261,720 1991
Conservation Monitoring Centre,
Cambridge, UK pp 60

Spalding et al. (1997) Sustainable Management of

Mangrove Ecosystem in the Indus
Delta. In: Moser, M. and van. 168,300 1993
Western, J, eds. Wetlands and
Waterfowl Conservation in South

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and West Asia. IWRB Publications,

No. 25. Gloucester, UK

Pakistan Forest Institute Remote Sensing. Global Forest

(2004) Resource Assessment (FRA) 2005
159,000 1997
thematic study on mangroves.
Unpublished.

World Conservation Institute Secondary reference. No primary

154,000 2000
(2000) source provided

More recent analysis is contained in Abbas et al. (2013) that indicates a further deterioration in mangrove
cover in the Indus Delta using temporal remote sensing cross-referenced against GIS layers of topographic
information sourced from Survey of Pakistan.20 This study found mangrove cover of varying density across
92,411 hectares in 2008-2009.

Most of these studies are dated and do not reflect the current on-ground situation. There is no deforestation
or degradation happening in the Indus delta area anymore. In fact, the trend has been reversed now. The
drivers of deforestation and degradation have been effectively controlled under DBC-1 project which has
been undertaking massive planting of de-vegetated intertidal areas and promoting natural regeneration
too. To date, 103,000 ha of de-vegetated areas have been restored under the DBC-1 project and 8,000 ha
have been planted under DBC-2 Project. Due to young age of planted/restored areas and coarse resolution
of the imageries used by most organizations, these restored areas are still not visible in these imageries
and are therefore erroneously classified as blank areas which in fact have mangrove vegetation.

2.1.15 Social Parameters (VCS, 3.18; CCB, G1.3)

2.1.15.1 Main Settlements

The Indus Delta stretches across the districts of Thatta, Sujawal, and Badin in Sindh Province, Pakistan.
The delta itself has a sparse population. Small fishing communities are the main inhabitants, residing along
the network of creeks that crisscross the coast. Unlike the bustling Karachi, Pakistan's largest metropolis,
located west of the delta, this region lacks major infrastructure and significant commercial or industrial
activity.

Focusing on a specific area within the delta, the DBC-2 Project Zone encompasses 39 villages bordering
the Project Area. These villages, with a total population of around 23,185 residents across 2,570
households, are spread across Jatti, Karo Chann, Shah Bandar talukas (Sujawal District), and Gularchi and
Badin talukas (Badin District). Data suggests a diverse population with 22 identified ethnic groups (see
Appendix 1 and 2 for details). The population growth rate is slightly higher in Badin District (2.61%)
compared to Sujawal District (2.23%). Most residents live on the outskirts of the Project Zone, with fewer
residing directly within the creeks and tidal areas.

20
Abbas et al. 2013. An assessment of status and distribution of mangrove forest cover in Pakistan.
Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences.

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The population structure of these areas is given below.

Table 5. Age—wise and Taluka-wise Population Structure in Percentages in the Project Zone.

Shah Bandar Karo Chann Gularchi

Age Category Jatti Taluka Badin Taluka
Taluka Taluka Taluka

≤ 2 years 6.45 6.12 6.69 5.82 6.32

˃ 2 years & ≤ 6 years 13.50 14.35 13.47 15.48 13.97

˃ 6 years & ≤ 12
16.87 18.22 19.75 17.19 17.81
years

˃ 12 years & ≤ 18
12.36 12.86 14.06 13.35 12.89
years

˃ 18 years & ≤ 30
19.89 18.71 16.74 17.33 18.76
years

˃ 30 years & ≤ 45
18.84 17.76 17.07 18.18 18.4
years

˃ 45 years & ≤ 60
7.91 8.00 8.87 9.23 8.21
years

˃ 60 years 4.16 3.98 3.35 3.41 3.90

Sample size of the

3,147 2,613 1,195 704 7,659
survey

Source: Malik, Muhammad Asghar, Wajeeha Raza and Riaz Karimi. 2019. Health expenditure and
utilization survey Thatta district, 2019 Department of Community Health Sciences, The Agha Khan
University.

For a full description of the communities, see Section 4.1.1.

2.1.15.2 Land ownership, land use and economic activities

All lands within the Project Area are designated as Protected Forests and are state property, thus ownership
lies with the Government of Sindh.

The communities in the Project Zone are largely homogenous (detailed in Appendices 1 and 2). Fishing is
the primary source of income for residents of the creeks. The annual value of mangrove-dependent fish

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catches throughout the delta is estimated at US$ 20 million, shrimp at US$ 70 million, and mud crabs at
US$ 3 million.

As of 2018, over 140,000 hectares of land adjacent to the Project Area were utilised for agriculture,
predominantly for cultivating rice, followed by sugarcane and wheat. Other significant crops include barley,
gram, oil seeds, maize, millet, cotton, and sorghum.

Fruits such as coconut, banana, mango, and papaya are also grown. However, ongoing sea intrusion is
negatively impacting the situation by turning cultivable land into barren patches. Rearing of livestock
(historically camels) is also on the decline in the region due to prevailing climactic conditions and increasing
poverty.21

2.1.15.3 Unregulated and excessive past harvesting

For over two centuries, mangroves in Pakistan have been exploited for their economic and ecological
benefits. Throughout this period, the wood from these forests has been utilised as fuelwood and fodder by
various tribes traveling along their extensive trading routes. These trading routes passed through the area
and connected the Middle East with Asia.22 In the year 1958, an area of 344,000 ha of mangrove forests
was declared Protected Forests. Before their declaration as Protected Forests, these areas had open
access and there were no entry and resource usage restrictions. Local people could and would cut trees
without seeking any permission or oversight by a regulatory agency. It was estimated that well-stocked
mangroves in the Indus delta were around 160,000 ha while approximately 100,000 ha had very sparse
or no vegetation (Qureshi, 1985)23.

For the most part, local communities cleared trees adjacent to their dwellings. This led to significant
deforestation and degradation. Subsequently, the cleared areas became susceptible to encroachment and
land-use changes. Even after 1958, when the mangrove forests were declared Protected Forests, the felling
of mangrove forests persisted, but this time primarily to generate revenue for the Government and develop
port infrastructure. Additionally, the cutting of dead, dying, and moribund trees for local residents' domestic
needs continued to be permitted.

However, in the last decade after the start of Delta Blue Carbon projects this practice has diminished due
to awareness raising, the provision of alternative sources of income and sources of fuel, and more effective
law enforcement.

2.1.15.4 Grazing, browsing, lopping of branches and plucking of leaves and propagules

Mangroves play a crucial role in providing feed for livestock not only for the coastal population but also for
camel herds from upper Sindh that migrate to the delta during the flood season. Before the launch of Delta
Blue Carbon projects, these mangrove lands used to serve as rangelands where domestic animals such as
cattle, buffaloes, camels, and goats would feed on mangrove foliage. Villagers along the coast rear their

21
COMDEKS Country Program Landscape Strategy for Indus Delta: Pakistan, SGP OP-6, 2017.
22
MFF Pakistan. 2014. Pakistan National Strategy and Action Plan. MFF Pakistan, Pakistan. 56 pp
23
Qureshi, M, T. 1985. Working Plan of Mangrove Forests Coastal Forest Division (1985-86 to 2004-05).
Sindh Forest Department, Karachi.

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cattle on Avicennia leaves and propagules, which are either fed directly to the animals or mixed with wheat
straw and other feed. The grazing of cattle and buffaloes causes only localised and insignificant damage to
the mangrove forests near coastal villages.

Historically, grazing by camels would cause serious and extensive damage. Camels graze on both mature
and young mangrove plants and trample any newly emerging natural regeneration or planted propagules,
significantly harming young saplings while causing less damage to mature plants due to their selective
browsing behavior. Camel farming is the primary occupation of the Jat tribe, which resides on both sides of
the Indus River, particularly in the deltaic areas near the sea creeks. Camels bred here are highly valued
not only in Sindh but also in Gulf countries.

During the flood season, camels from upper and interior parts of Sindh Province migrate to the mangrove
forests in herds. These camels belong to professional camel owners or large landholders. These camels
arrive in June and July each year and stay in these wetlands and mangrove areas until October. Typically,
the herds are left on coastal islands, supervised by one or two attendants.

Most camels in coastal villages are sent to mudflats or small islands between the creeks near the sea to
feed on both trees and shrubby vegetation. These feeding areas are usually located about 7-10 miles from
their settlements. Additionally, fodder is lopped for feeding young camels that cannot yet live independently
on the coastal islands with the herds. As opposed to the historical un-regulated and un-managed camel
grazing which caused damaged to newly re-generated areas, camel grazing in the delta area is now
effectively regulated and managed by both project proponents as well as local communities. Project
proponents in the Indus Delta region have made significant strides in addressing the issue of unmanaged
and unregulated camel grazing, which has historically posed a threat to the mangrove ecosystems. Through
the implementation of Mangrove Stewardship Agreements, stakeholders including local communities,
camel herders and governmental bodies are now collaboratively working to sustain these vital habitats.
Additionally, the effective enforcement of applicable environmental laws has greatly contributed to
mitigating this issue. These coordinated efforts have not only enhanced the protection of mangrove areas
but have also ensured that camel grazing is conducted in a controlled and sustainable manner, thereby
preserving the ecological balance and supporting the long-term health of the mangroves. Hence, camel
grazing is no more a driver of deforestation and forest degradation as it used to be in the past prior to the
DBC-1 project start date. As per the latest livestock census, camel figures have been reported for different
parts of Sindh Province by the Bureau of Statistics, Planning and Development Department of Government
of Sindh. These figures are reproduced in the Table below.

Table 5. Camel population in the three coastal districts as per Sindh Bureau of Statistics Report in 2023.

Left banks side of River Indus

Approximate No. of camels
Sujawal and Badin Districts

1. Badin District 8,672

2. Sujawal District (derived from combined figures of Thatta 4,000

District)

Total Sujawal and Badin Districts 12,672

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Right bank side of River Indus

Thatta District

Thatta District 6,702

Total Sujawal, Badin and Thatta Districts 19,374

Camel population in the project area as per estimates of Sindh Forest Department (1995 Camel Population
Survey Report) are 1000, 500, and 2,000 in Badin, Sujawal and Thatta districts respectively.

As explained above, the project manages the threat of camel grazing through a proven, multipronged
approach. DBC-2 supports improved law enforcement and monitoring through a ward and watch system.
Additionally, the project includes significant investments in community awareness on the impacts of
unplanned and unmanaged grazing. Critically, the project works with grazers and the government to
implement community-based resource management. In practice, this includes supporting grazers to move
herds to areas that are less sensitive to grazing, and rotating grazing areas to reduce impact on mangrove
growth. This has the impact of allowing grazers to continue their activities while reducing or eliminating the
pressure on young, delicate mangrove forests.

2.1.15.5 Health, education, and sanitation

Many communities in the Project Zone lack access to safe and affordable drinking water. A significant
number of villages rely on lined canals for their water supply, but these canals are seasonal and only contain
water during the high flood season (July-August).

Hygiene conditions in these villages are extremely poor, leaving the population vulnerable to various
diseases.

These marginalised communities also face severe shortages in health and education services and other
essential amenities due to their remote locations and inadequate infrastructure, staffing, and operational
funding.

Literacy rates vary significantly, from as low as 0.2% in Ali Muhammad Racho to as high as 90% in Channey
Sar (See Appendix 2 for details).

2.1.15.6 Poverty

Due to its narrow and non-diversified economic base, there are limited employment and income
opportunities for the local communities. Consequently, over 70% of the coastal population in the area lives
below the poverty line.

The high cost of living is exacerbated by the expenses associated with transporting goods. Formal credit
facilities through banks are scarce because of stringent collateral requirements, forcing communities to
rely on informal money lenders who charge exorbitant interest rates.

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The physical, social, and institutional context in which most of the youth, women, and elderly live is
characterised by poverty, social issues, economic deprivation, low self-esteem, and poor hygiene and health
conditions. This socioeconomic environment makes them particularly vulnerable to both natural and
human-induced shocks.

2.1.15.7 Relevant historic conditions

The Indus Delta coast, a complex system of creeks, sub-creeks, swamps, streams and mangroves stretches
from Korangi Creek in the west to Sir Creek in the east. It has been placed amongst the 200 most important
eco-regions in the world by WWF24, having rich culture and history dating from more than 8,000 years ago.

Sindh Province and the delta area have been centers of various dynasties and civilizations throughout
history. The history of this region can be divided into three major eras: the Ancient Era, the Muslim Era, and
the Modern Era.

The Ancient Era includes the Indus Valley Civilization, known for its advanced urban features. Remnants of
thousand-year-old cities and structures reveal sophisticated city planning, brick-built houses, sewage and
drainage systems, and public baths. The civilization also had a writing system that remains undeciphered
to this day. The people of this era domesticated bovines, sheep, elephants, and camels had knowledge of
metallurgy, and excelled in arts and crafts, including the use of beads, seals, pottery, and bracelets.

The Macedonian Fleet of Alexander the Great is said to have anchored for some time in the delta area25,
which was destroyed by an earthquake generated in the Makran Coast in 325 B.C26.

By the 6th century A.D., the delta reportedly had a port city called Debal. Pirates from the Nagamar tribe
used this port city for their raids against the Umayyads, which eventually led to an incursion by Muhammad
bin Qasim and the Muslim conquest of Sindh in 710 A.D.

Debal had remained a port until 1223 A.D. but was abandoned due to lack of access to the sea by the time
Ibn Batutta reached the delta area27.

The major historical periods of Muslim rule in the area include the Arab Conquest, the Habbari Arab Dynasty,
the Ghaznavids, the Soomra, the Samma Dynasty, the Delhi Sultanate, the Arghun-Tarkhan Dynasty, the
Mughals, and the Kalhoras. During the Muslim rule, the delta area was governed as an increasingly
autonomous province centered at Mansura.

24
Salman, M. and S. Habib. 2020. Understanding the Eastern Coast of Pakistan. Maritime Study Forum.
25
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River_Delta.
26
Pararas-Carayannis, G. 2006. Alexander the Great-Impact of the 325 B.C. Tsunami in the Northern
Arabian Sea Upon his Fleet. Disaster Archaeology.
27
Haig, M. R. 1894, The Indus Delta Country: A Memoir, Chiefly on its Ancient Geography and History. K.
Paul, Trench, Trubner & Co. Ltd. London.

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The Samma Dynasty, which began in 1333 A.D., ruled the entire delta and established its capital first at
Samu-I and later moved it to Thatta. The "golden age of native rule" (1461-1509 A.D.) occurred during this
dynasty under the rule of Jam Nizamuddin II.

Under the Mughal Empire (1591-1592), the delta was part of the province of Multan and was governed by
Mirza Ghazi Beg until it was ceded to Nadir Shah in 1739. The Kalhoras have ruled the region till 1783
from whom the power was transferred to Talpur until the British invaded the area in 1843 28.

The Modern Era of the delta's history began with the British conquest of Sindh in 1843. In 1947, the Indus
Delta, along with the rest of Sindh, became part of Pakistan.

Mangroves and wetlands in the delta area were initially open-access resources until the management
responsibility for mangrove forests in the Indus Delta was transferred to the Sindh Forest and Wildlife
Department in 1957. By 2010, all mangrove forests and lands in the delta, spanning over 667,000
hectares, were designated as "Protected Forests" under Section 29 of the Pakistan Forest Act of 1927.
Additionally, all trees in these areas were declared as reserved under Section 30. Section 32 of the same
Act empowered the Government to establish rules for the management of these forests and to enforce
actions necessary for their protection under Section 33. Furthermore, the delta area hosts several Ramsar
Sites, highlighting its importance for wetland conservation.

2.1.15.8 Migration

Resource degradation has triggered a significant exodus from the Indus Delta, resulting in the displacement
of approximately 90,000 people and the abandonment of around 120 villages. One driving factor behind
this migration was the scarcity of local bushes and plants, which were traditionally used for crafting various
materials, particularly by the Jatt villagers. Others have been forced to relocate due to the scarcity of potable
drinking water in the region. According to estimates by the Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum, about 14,400
individuals from the delta coast, predominantly fishermen, are among those who have departed.

Until the 1970s, Kharochan thrived as a bustling city in the delta. Its port facilitated the export of locally
produced silk, rice, and wood. However, the escalating salinity levels led to the deterioration of local
agriculture, and by 2006, the port succumbed to the encroaching Arabian Sea.

2.1.15.9 Socio-cultural information

There are many ethnic groups in the Indus Delta area. Main ethnic groups found in the Project Zone among
others include Jatt, Mallaah, Mohano, Soomro, Samon and Memon. Appendix 2 gives the socio-economic
characteristics of the communities within the Project Zone.

2.1.16 Project Zone Map and Project Location (VCS, 3.11, 3.18; CCB, G1.4-7, G1.13, CM1.2, B1.2)

A map of the Project Zone and Project Area is extracted below that includes planned mangrove restoration
areas by cohort.

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Figure 2. DBC-2 Project Zone and Project Area Map

The Project’s geographic boundaries and geodetic coordinates are extracted in Section 2.1.14 as part
of the discussion of the Project’s physical parameters. Several other Project Zone maps are located in
this document under the relevant discussion heading, including:

• Communities: community locations in respect of the Project Zone boundary and proximity to
creeks can be found in Section 2.3.2 as part of the discussion of Project stakeholders

High Conservation Value (HCV) Areas: maps of HCV areas are extrapolated in Section 5.1.2
contextualising the location of significant conservation value areas in that section. No negative offsite
climate impacts are anticipated to accrue from Project activities, the locations of which would otherwise
be disclosed in this section. Additionally, as outlined in Section 4.3 and Section 5.3, no negative impacts
on other stakeholders or offsite biodiversity impacts are anticipated to occur as a result of the Project.

2.1.17 Project Activities and Theory of Change (VCS, 3.6; CCB, G1.8)

The project’s theory of change is a reflection of challenges and opportunities set forth by the community in
formal workshops as well as through ongoing engagement by the project partners. Communities worked
with the proponents to develop the theory of change through a series of steps that include identifying key
challenges to themselves and the project (Focal Issues), diagramming their root causes (Problem Flow
Diagrams), identifying project activities to address these root causes (Project Activities) and mapping these

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activities into a strategy (Focal Issues Results Chains). These steps were completed in a series of SBIA
workshops described below.

2.1.17.1 SBIA Workshops

During the SBIA workshops community members identified focal issues that they faced. Focal issues are
considered to be factors or issues that are most important for the project’s success. The project worked
with stakeholders to identify and prioritise these issues
to inform project activities and design.
The SBIA process includes 7 stages, the first 6 of which
were accomplished over a series of workshops:
Key considerations in organising the workshops
included:
Engagement: Efforts were made to engage all
stakeholders, particularly those with cultural or personal
barriers to full engagement.
Representation: Workshops ensured a cross-section of
community members including representation across
leadership, educational, literacy, gender, ethnicity, and
vulnerable group statuses.
Participation: All participants, and especially facilitators
and coordinators, were responsible for ensuring
participation from all participants, particularly those
whose educational, literacy, or social statuses may have
made participation more difficult.
Record Keeping: Good record keeping at each of the SBIA stages to ensure the capture of essential
information and improve the transparency of project design.
The workshops were conducted in a step by step process following the process set forth by the SBIA
methodology. More detail on the SBIA workshops can be found in Appendix 20.

2.1.17.2 Focal Issues

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Through the SBIA workshops, communities’ members identified four focal issues that were most relevant
to their lives and the success of the project’s goals:
• Focal Issue 1 (Climate): Mangrove Forest degradation due to unregulated and
unsustainable use
• Focal Issue 2 (Community): Poverty and impoverished community well-being
• Focal Issue 3 (Biodiversity): Continued and accelerated wildlife habitat and biodiversity loss
and fisheries degradation
Focal Issue 4 (Women’s Empowerment): Lack of opportunity for women through education, economic
empowerment, or leadership

2.1.17.3 Problem Flow Diagrams

For each of these focal issues, communities and project partners collaborated to develop problem flow
diagrams, which diagrammed the causal factors of each focal issue. Communities were organised into
working groups to discuss and validate these diagrams, and share back with the broader workshops.
Community members also identified potential areas for activities to address these problems.
Figure 3. Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and unsustainable use.

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Figure 4. Poverty and impoverished community well-being.

Figure 5. Continued and accelerated wildlife and habitat loss and fisheries degradation.

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Figure 6. Lack of opportunities for women

2.1.17.4 Types of Project Activities

Based on the focal issues and problem flow diagrams, strategic project entry points were identified during
the SBIA workshops and agreed to as core project activities. When implemented they would follow the
theory of change logic developed in the results chains (see Figures 7-10) to lead to the desired outcomes.
These proposed project activities were further guided by the knowledge and experience of the project
partners. All the activities will be implemented in partnership and with the support of the relevant
departments of the provincial Government of Sindh. Project activities can address one or multiple of the
focal issues identified above, with focal issue impacts below intended to be indicative but non-exhaustive.
Project activities are organised into ten major categories with descriptions below:

Category 1: Mangrove Planting and Stewardship (ARR) Activities

Description Carbon funds will be used to scale up, accelerate and finance planned ARR
activity to achieve project targets. These funds will also allow the project to
enter into Mangrove Stewardship Agreements (MSAs) and create significantly
more jobs and income for Project Zone community members, including
women, to ensure the ongoing protection of the restored areas. Strong
employment outcomes will serve to address climate, community, and
biodiversity challenges faced in the Project Zone.

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Focal Issue(s): Impacts Focal Issue 1 (Climate): Increase in mangrove cover and CO2 sequestration.
Improved climate resiliency
Focal Issue 2 (Community): Increase in employment through ARR activities
and related MSAs, increase in fishery productivity, increased income
Focal Issue 3 (Biodiversity): Increased flora and fauna, nursery and habitats.
Focal Issue 4 (Women’s Empowerment): Increased high-quality employment
and leadership opportunities for women
SDGs Impacted

Category 2: Participatory Planning and Community Education

Description The project has a dedicated community liaison team that uses diverse
methods to educate and sensitise the population about the environment. With
carbon funds the project will hire more personnel to continue capacity building
for community groups and institutions directly involved in the management of
natural resources. The project will run an ongoing series of educational
programmes across various sustainable development activities.
Participatory village and household level planning are integral to the
programme’s plans and the key to its continued success. This planning will
strengthen local institutions and stewardship.
Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 1 (Climate): Increase in resource planning and stewardship of
mangroves
Focal Issue 2 (Community): Improved community organisation and access to
education
SDGs Impacted

Category 3: Education Activities

Description Proceeds from carbon funds will be used to improve access to education in
these communities. Funding is needed to improve the infrastructure of
existing school buildings within the Project Zone. Most are in an extremely
rundown state and lack the most basic of resources to remain functional. The
project will support the provision of materials and resources to fund primary
education within the Project Zone. A special focus will be places on ensuring
that girls are able to access education within the Project Zone.
A school bursary scheme will also be set up and transport for students to the
nearest schools from the most isolated areas will be provided. An adult
literacy programme will also be implemented in targeted areas.

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Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 2 (Community): Increased access to primary and literacy
education
Focal Issue 4 (Women’s Empowerment): Increased access to primary and
literacy education for women
SDGs Impacted

Category 4: Sustainable Fishing and Fishery Activities

Description There is on-going unregulated and unsustainable exploitation of fish and other
marine resources in the Project Zone as a result of which certain valuable
marine fisheries resources stocks are declining rapidly. Harmful fine mesh
nets fixed in the creek areas catch large quantities of juvenile fish without any
consideration of target or non-target species. Harmful practices and weak
governance are leading to the depletion of certain fish stocks. Proceeds from
carbon finance will be used to work with the local fishing communities and the
relevant governmental authorities to address this alarming trend.
This will be achieved by organising fishing communities into Fishing
Stewardship Committees (FSCs) with clear terms of reference and
engagement under terms of partnership agreements.
A participatory development of and adherence to voluntary standards for
sustainable fishing will be implemented. In partnership with the Department
of Fisheries an awareness raising and capacity building programme will be
developed to encourage sustainable fishing practices.
Fishing communities will be supported in exploring alternative income and
livelihood sources to reduce pressure on fish and other marine resources. The
project will also facilitate the networking and linking of fishing community
members to microfinance and credit institutions. Additionally, the provision of
cold storage facilities will serve to increase the efficiency of fishing operations.
Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 2 (Community): Increased sustainability of economic activities and
food sources
Focal Issue 3 (Biodiversity): Reduction in the loss of wildlife and habitat
SDGs Impacted

Category 5: Healthcare, Drinking Water, and Sanitation Activities

Description Using carbon funds, the project will upgrade and renovate rural health centres
in the Project Zone and provision them with equipment and where needed
transportation. The project will further create essential health units, provide

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education on healthcare related issues, and construct urgently needed

communal washrooms in strategic villages.
Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 2 (Community): Improved community health and education,
reduction in vulnerability to disease and water scarcity
Focal Issue 4 (Women’s Empowerment): Improved healthcare and health
outcomes for women
SDGs Impacted

Category 6: Law Enforcement and Conservation Activities

Description Protection and law enforcement activities will continue to seek to prevent
illegal exploitation of the Project Area for fuelwood cutting and illegal grazing
of livestock as well as poaching and killing of wildlife species. Carbon funds
will be used to substantially increase manpower used to enforce these
measures.
Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 1 (Climate): Increased protection of wetlands
Focal Issue 3 (Biodiversity): Decrease in poaching and unregulated
exploitation of biodiversity
SDGs Impacted

Category 7: Economic Development Activities

Description Community livelihood development is a core priority of the project. The goal is
to bring substantial benefits to the Project Zone communities through
sustainable economic development by supporting activities identified during
the participatory planning process and SBIAs. Some key activities identified
were: Crab farming/aquaculture, livestock rearing, training for sorting,
processing and marketing fish – as well as providing cold storage facilities
and new fishing nets.
The project will seek to assist sustainable local development through carbon
funds along with access to microfinance. Additionally, the project will provide
linkages between rural handicraft producers and urban markets, allowing
rural workers to capture more value from their labour.

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Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 1 (Climate): Reduced pressure for mangrove products and harvest
due to alternative economic opportunities.
Focal Issue 2 (Community): Increase in economic activity and opportunity /
equity and access to credit / investment. Increased employment and
decreased costs. Increased food security
Focal Issue 4 (Women’s Empowerment): Increased high-quality employment
and entrepreneurial opportunities for women. Increased food security and
reduced time poverty
SDGs Impacted

Category 8: Sustainable Energy Activities

Description The project promotes the use of sustainable and renewable energy sources.
Through the community-based planning process, the project will seek to
increase energy efficiency and the number of communities who have access
to cleaner, renewable energy.
Sustainable energy sources that will be considered include efficient cook
stoves, solar panels, lamps and pumps. This intervention will be particularly
targeted at communities living inside the creeks, and those that are sourcing
energy from mangrove products.
Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 1 (Climate): Reduced pressure on mangroves as an energy source
Focal Issue 2 (Community): Reduced health and financial costs of energy and
fuel usage
Focal Issue 4 (Women’s Empowerment): Reduced time spent harvesting
mangrove products for fuel
SDGs Impacted

Category 9: Training and Capacity Building Partnerships

Description The Sindh Forest Department has a crucial role to play in the successful
implementation of the project. The capacity of its staff at various levels
therefore will be built up through various training and capacity building
workshops. For this purpose, a proper capacity gaps assessment will be
conducted through a structured analysis approach. Based on these assessed
capacity gaps, a modular training and capacity enhancement programme will
be designed and implemented.

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Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 1 (Climate): Improved capacity to plant, grow, and protect
mangroves
Focal Issue 2 (Community): Improved governmental services and capacity
SDGs Impacted

Category 10: Women’s Empowerment Activities

Description Using carbon funds, targeted activities for mainstreaming of gender

development will be designed and implemented. The projects’ gender focused
activities seek to create change across six critical areas: Time Savings, Income
& Assets, Health, Leadership, Education and Knowledge, and Food Security.
These areas are interdependent and progress will be mutually reinforcing.
The project will support progress across these areas through activities
including:
Time Savings: Provision of renewable energy to avoid time spent collecting
fuel
Income & Assets: Employment with equal pay, establishment of market
linkages, microfinance, support for income generating activities and
vocational training
Health: Provision of gender specific healthcare, access to clean water,
maternity / midwifery care
Leadership: Opportunities for leadership within the project and formation of
women’s groups to advocate for centricity in community decision making
Education and Knowledge: Access to school for girls and literacy programs for
adult women
Food Security: Improved and more sustainable access to food through crab
and poultry farming, improved fish catches, kitchen gardening programmes.
Focal Issue(s) Impacted Focal Issue 2 (Community): Women’s empowerment and development
initiatives will have impact across communities
Focal Issue 4 (Women’s Empowerment): These activities will support
women’s empowerment and gender equity
SDGs Impacted

2.1.17.5 Focal Issue Results Chain

After identifying focal issues, diagramming the root causes of these issues in Problem Flow Diagrams, and
identifying key activities, community members worked with project partners to map potential activities,

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strategies, results, and outcomes into a series of Focal Issue Results Chains. These diagrams specify what
results are needed for focal issue problem to be improved. Focal Issue Results Chains created in
partnership with local communities include:

Figure 7: Community Focal Issue Results Chain – Poverty and Impoverished Community Well-Being

Figure 8: Biodiversity Focal Issue Results Chain – Continued and Accelerated Wildlife Habitat and
Biodiversity Loss and Fisheries Degradation

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Figure 9: Climate Focal Issue Results Chain - Mangrove Forest Degradation due to Unregulated and
Unsustainable Use

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Figure 10: Women’s Empowerment Focal Issue Results Chain – Lack of Opportunity for Women Through
Education, Economic Empowerment, or Leadership

2.1.17.6 Supporting Strategies

DBC-2 is a landscape-scale project that will create a broad range of environmental and sustainable
outcomes for communities and the Indus River Delta. The project is implemented in partnership between
the Government of Sindh, Caelum Environmental Solutions, and Pollination. The project proponents will
seek to further partner with external organisations to leverage their impact and ability to deliver on the
ambitious, wide-ranging goals of DBC-2. Potential partnerships will include Pakistan Forest Institute,
Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Karachi, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and
Marine Sciences (LUWAMS), Sindh Agriculture University (SAU), University of Sindh (UoS), Indus Hospital,
Shine Humanity, IUCN, etc.
Additionally, the project will seek to support and strengthen relevant institutions that can deliver benefits
to communities and environments in and outside the delta. This will include revenue share to the
Government of Sindh, offering knowledge and experience to the Federal Government on issues relating to
environmental conservation, restoration and carbon markets, as well as identifying and strengthening local

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and community-based organisations within the delta. Such organisations include Akhuwat Foundation,
Fisheries Folk Society, etc.
The project partners have a strong history of collecting data from the delta that may inform climate,
community, and biodiversity impacts of mangrove conservation at a global scale, supporting SDG 9. DBC-
2, and its sister project DBC-1, will serve as a knowledge hub and resource for mangrove restoration
projects and seek to strengthen and advocate for this work.

2.1.18 Sustainable Development Contributions (VCS, 3.17)

Pakistan has affirmed its commitment to the UN SDGs, and is in the process of mainstreaming these goals
into national policy. A localized and provincial set of SDG frameworks has also been formulated, and thus
the project assesses progress against the full suite of SDGs relevant at the national level and local level.
Monitoring of impact is done in large part through the project’s regular monitoring approach.
The project’s activities and implementation will impact all of the 17 UN SDGs. Some of these activities are
described in section the Project Activities and Theory of Change (see section 2.1.7). Impacts include:
SDG 1: No Poverty: The project will reduce poverty by increasing income and economic opportunity in the
Project Zone and decreasing the cost of living. This will be achieved through activities including
direct employment, education, provision of credit, improvement of fishing practices (ex. provision
of cold storage), vocational and sustainable development activities, provision of renewable
energy and healthcare, and women’s empowerment activities. Collectively these activities will support
increased income and decreased cost of living, reducing poverty.
SDG 2: No Hunger: Project activities will reduce hunger through vocational and sustainable
development activities, improvements to the fisheries within the Project Zone, and increased
income through employment.
SDG 3: Good Health and Well Being: Project activities that support good health and wellbeing outcomes in
the Project Zone include the provision of clean drinking water, construction of medical clinics,
provision of gender specific medical care, improved sanitation from communal washrooms,
reduced smoke inhalation from improved cookstoves, and healthcare for those employed by the
project.
SDG 4: Quality Education: The project will support quality education through the refurbishment of
schools, funding of supplies and teachers, literacy classes and vocational education.
SDG 5: Gender Equality: Gender equality is a major focus of the project and one of the 4 core
focal issues addressed through project design. Equity will be furthered through the high-quality
employment and leadership opportunities for women, education and healthcare specifically
designed for women and girls, formation of women’s groups to support community leadership,

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provision of credit, establishment of market linkages for women, and programs for women to support
vocational education.
SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The project will renovate or build communal washrooms to support
improved sanitation in the Project Zone. The project will also provide clean drinking water within
the Project Zone.
SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: Project activities include the promotion of sustainable and
renewable energy sources including efficient cookstoves, solar panels, lamps and pumps.
SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The project will provide thousands of high quality
jobs reforesting the delta, and long-term contracts with community members who enter
Mangrove Stewardship Agreements to protect the forests.
SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: The project will serve as a knowledge hub and
partner for coastal and mangrove restoration. This will be implemented through a continuation
of current engagement with practitioners and experts in the space, and advocacy work,
supporting further innovation.
SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities: The project will reduce inequality by providing economic opportunity to
impoverished communities and by targeting specific marginalized groups such as women.
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The project will support safe, resilient, and
sustainable communities through the reduction in climate risks associated with storms and
flooding. A secondary benefit of development in the delta is a reduction on urbanization pressure
in adjacent larger cities.
SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production: The project will support responsible
consumption and production particularly through activities supporting more sustainable fishing
practices and more sustainable uses of fuel and mangrove products.
SDG 13: Climate Action: The project will support climate action through the sequestration of
millions of tonnes of CO2 and increased climate resiliency for local communities.
SDG 14: Life Below Water: The project will support life below water by restoring the mangrove
ecosystem, which is a critical nursery and habitat for fish and marine animals.
SDG 15: Life On Land: The project will support life on land by restoring the mangrove ecosystem,
which is a critical nursery and habitat for birds and terrestrial animals.
SDG 16: Peace Justice, and Strong Institutions: The project will support peace, justice, and strong
institutions by funding improved law enforcement and building the enabling environment for
legal enforcement (such as boundary setting and community sensitization). The project will also
provide upskilling and support to government ministries and departments such as the Sindh
Department of Forestry.
SDG 17: Partnership for the Goals: The project will support partnerships including between the public and
private sectors, as well as partnerships will community and non-profit organizations, academic
institutions, and other project developers.

2.1.19 Implementation Schedule (CCB, G1.9)

Date Milestone(s) in the project’s development and implementation

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2020-2023 Agreement signing: Tripartite Project Agreement signed between the

Government of Sindh, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination.

2020-2023 Socio-economic baseline establishment: Socio-economic baseline survey

of Project Zone communities in all 39 villages completed.

2020-2023 Biodiversity baseline establishment: Biodiversity baseline survey of

Project Zone done.

2020-2023 Baseline vegetation survey: A baseline vegetation survey in the Project

Area was conducted.

2020-2023 Community participation: SBIA and FPIC-related workshops with Project

Zone Communities. Two-day-long FPIC and SBIA workshops were held at
three locations with key stakeholders from all areas of the Project Zone,
where FPIC was given by local communities, focal issues were agreed
upon and key activities and interventions were decided.

2023 Project Start Date: After community engagement, land tenure, and
baselining activities were completed, project formally started with first
planting.

2023- 2024 Large-scale ARR/RWE activity: Engaging and employing local community
members in plantation activities begins in the Project Area on degraded
lands. To date, more than 8,000 ha have been planted and restored. A
Mangrove Stewardship model was developed, where community members
implement a ward and watch system to protect planted areas in return for
a monthly income.

2020-2079 Begin and end date of carbon crediting period

2023 Work on PD development started.

2024-2030 Monitoring plan executed to prepare for verification

2024-2030 Further plantations of 185,495 ha of degraded land. Upscaling of

community livelihood improvement interventions to cover entire Project
Zone.

2024-2079 VCS/CCB Verification and dissemination of verified monitoring reports,

VCS/CCB monitoring event and reports generation in periodic cycles.
Implementation and maintenance of community programs.

2.1.20 Risks to the Project (CCB, G1.10)

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The VCS requires that a non-permanence risk assessment be carried out in accordance with the most
recent AFOLU Non-Permanence Risk Tool (v4.2). By applying this guidance, a risk rating was determined
for the project and a non-permanence risk buffer of 10% was estimated, see Appendix 13 Risk Analysis.
Please see the below table for a summary of risks to the project and some further detailed discussion of
such risks in the sections below.

Identified Potential impact of risk on climate, Actions needed and designed to

Risk community and/or biodiversity benefits mitigate the risk

Fire risk Reversal of carbon sequestered in Risk is low due to regular

mangroves and soils, negative impact on inundation and high humidity in
community infrastructure and wellbeing intertidal zone. Government
from ecosystem reliance, ecosystem loss standing orders for fire
and loss of wildlife habitat. prevention, suppression and
reporting. No fire incidents have
been reported in over 20 years.
No specific mitigations are built
into project design.

Flooding risk Reversal of carbon sequestered in Seasonal flooding is common and

mangroves and soils, negative impact on expected. No mitigation actions
community infrastructure and wellbeing built into project design due to
from ecosystem reliance, ecosystem loss mangrove adaptation to this
and loss of wildlife habitat. hydrological cycle.

Sea level rise Extreme sea level rise could threaten Establishment of mangroves will
mangrove survival due to soil erosion and prevent erosion and raise the
permanent inundation. level of the soil, acting as a
partial mitigant to a rising sea
level. The extent of unmitigated
risk has been accounted for in
GHG pool calculations in Section
3.2.2.

Deforestation Unregulated extraction from mangrove Implementation of community-led

forest could threaten mangrove planting watch and ward system under the
survival, dependant ecosystem health, Mangrove Stewardship
and local subsistence economies. Agreements described in Section
2.1.1. Economic development and
poverty reduction programs to
alleviate pressure on mangrove
extraction.

Freshwater Interconnected risks purported to stem The extent of these risks is not
flow from diminished Indus River flow due to adequately supported by research

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upstream damning. Threatening and mangroves have been seen t

Sediment
mangrove planting survival, dependant adapt to ecosystem changes. No
deposits
ecosystem health, and local subsistence mitigating actions built into
Salinity economies. project design. A more expansive
discussion of these issues can be
found in Section 2.1.14. The
extent of unmitigated risk has
been accounted for in GHG pool
calculations in Section 3.2.2.

2.1.20.1 Natural Risks

The Indus Delta region is not susceptible to severe natural destructive events. The area is subject to very
little geological activity and as a native ecosystem the risks from disease and pests are minimal. The risk
of fire is negligible due to regular inundation and high humidity under the forest canopy and in the whole of
the intertidal zone. Also, government has standing orders with respect to forest fires prevention,
suppression and reporting. In the event a forest fire, it has to be reported on immediate basis and a fire
damage report prepared. This fire damage report among others needs to have details with respect to the
date and time the fire occurred, how it occurred, specific location of the fire, extent/area affected, and
damages caused by the fire. No such fire damage incidents in the Indus Delta mangrove forests have been
reported over the past more than two decades.
Seasonal flooding does occur during the annual monsoons but the mangroves species in the delta are well
adapted and resilient to the hydrological cycle.
However, long-term global climate change does pose a risk to the GHG mitigation outcomes of the project.
Although mangroves can adapt through accretion to a degree of rising sea levels, extreme sea level rise
can pose a threat to survival rates. Consequently, the negative ecological effects due to rapid sea level rise
and associated coastal inundation and erosion have been accounted for in Section 3 of this document,
with mitigation options discussed where appropriate.

2.1.20.2 Human-induced Risks

The major human-induced risk to the project is the unsustainable and unregulated use of mangrove forests,
along with the failure of restoration work. Measures to end destructive practices that can impact the project
negatively have been put in place through a participatory approach with forest-dependent communities in
the Project Zone (see Section 2.1.1). The main mitigation activity against failure in plantation is through
ongoing protection and through community-led Mangrove Stewardship Agreements, which ensure that
restoration work is protected and allowed to develop and establish over the project’s lifetime. The project’s
economic development and poverty reduction programs will work to reduce the pressure for mangrove
products within communities living on the borders of the mangrove forests.

Reduced river waterflow, sediment deposits, and increasing salinity as a result of upstream construction of
damns and barrages has been cited as a potential risk to the Project Area plantings. As discussed in Section
2.1.14, the extent of such risks are not adequately supported by field data. In that section, government
water management policies, water use efficiency measures, and alternative sediment deposit sources are

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described as sufficiently mitigating such risks. Residual risks are otherwise accounted for in Section 3.2
and managed through adaptive management and species selection in field operations.

2.1.21 Benefit Permanence (CCB, G1.11)

DBC-2 is a long-term project spanning 60 years, aimed at generating significant climate, community, and
biodiversity benefits, both currently and into the future. The project benefits from an automatically
renewable agreement, extending its duration to 100 years. Designed with a focus on sustainable
community benefits, all project activities are implemented with the full consensus and support of, and in
partnership with, each community in the Project Zone. These efforts prioritize the development of
enhanced and alternative livelihoods to alleviate pressure on the surrounding natural ecosystem (refer to
Section 4.2.1).

To ensure the continuity and enhancement of climate, community, and biodiversity benefits beyond the
project's lifespan and to address non-permanence risks, specific measures have been devised and are
being implemented:

a) Institutionalisation of project interventions: Key project interventions, such as the protection

and sustainable management of restored mangrove forests, coastal and marine biodiversity
conservation, and socio-economic development activities, will be fully integrated into the regular
functioning of relevant departments, ensuring continual engagement with local communities.

b) Capacity building and engagement of community organizations: Through awareness-raising,

training, and capacity-building initiatives, local communities are equipped with the knowledge
and skills needed for responsible and sustainable management of coastal and marine resources,
fostering a sense of ownership and stewardship.

c) Establishment of linkages with partner organizations: Over the project's duration, strong
partnerships will be forged with government, private sector, NGO, and civil society entities,
bolstering efforts to maintain and enhance project benefits beyond the crediting period.

d) Sustainable management of restored ecosystems: By implementing sustainable management

practices, the availability of ecosystem services will remain stable and increase over time,
benefiting all segments of society.

e) Diversification and increase in incomes: Project interventions will lead to sustained,

diversified, and increased incomes for various socio-economic groups in the Project Zone,
fostering economic growth beyond the project's duration.

f) Generation of employment and business opportunities: Socio-economic development and

environmental rehabilitation efforts will create a plethora of employment and business
opportunities within the Project Zone, contributing to overall economic prosperity.

g) Decrease in cost of living: Addressing factors contributing to the high cost of living will result in
its reduction, relieving local communities from resorting to unsustainable resource use.

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h) Efficient allocation and utilization of resources: Enhanced awareness and capacity-building

initiatives will promote the efficient allocation and utilization of coastal, marine, and financial
resources, leading to resource conservation and sustainable development.

i) Increase in adaptive capacity and resilience: Over time, communities will develop the
necessary resources, skills, and strategies to enhance their adaptive capacity and resilience,
enabling them to cope with various shocks and trends effectively.

j) Reduction of threats to mangrove lands and biodiversity: Through institutional arrangements

such as Mangrove Stewardship Agreements, Biodiversity Stewardship Agreements, and Fish and
Sustainable Fishing Stewardship Agreements, local communities are empowered as stewards of
mangroves and biodiversity conservation, ensuring their protection and sustainable
management.

k) Project longevity: With a duration of up to 100 years, the project's generational longevity
ensures that its benefits become ingrained in society's workings, ensuring their sustained
availability as an integral part of community life.

2.1.22 Financial Sustainability (CCB, G1.12)

The project partners are: 1) the Forest Department of the provincial Government of Sindh, which is a
supported administrative unit with its own development budgets and 2) Caelum Environmental Solutions
and 3) Pollination which have bought in non-leveraged capital through their owners and network of
investors. Predicted carbon revenues and precise annual budgets demonstrate sufficient cash flow from
sales of VCUs to sustain the project through to the end of the crediting period. The project partners have
not received any grants for start-up costs or to fund the project design and development.

The project partners have prepared a detailed schedule of capital expenditure and operating expenditure
for the duration of the project crediting period, aligned with the length of the land tenure as described by
the Public-Private Partnership (60-years, option for 100 years). The planned ongoing operating expenditure
is aligned with key activities designed to deliver exceptional climate, community and biodiversity co-benefits
through the project lifetime, and have taken into account inflationary scenarios and scale-up of community
and biodiversity programs overtime.
The project implementation (capital expenditure) and operational expenditure are to be financed by carbon
financing against the delivery of future carbon credits and the sale of voluntary carbon credits to off-takers.

2.2 Without-project Land Use Scenario and Additionality

2.2.1 Conditions Prior to Project Initiation and Land Use Scenarios without the Project (VCS, 3.13; CCB,
G2.1)

The comprehensive baseline scenario analysis, as outlined in CDM AR tool 2 (Combined tool to identify
the baseline scenario and demonstrate additionality for A/R CDM project activities), is detailed in Section
3.1.4.

Scenario 1: Continuation of pre-project land use

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No barriers have been identified for this scenario. The land targeted by the project activity comprises
degraded mangrove habitat. Located in a coastal area, increased population pressure and short-term
economic incentives have led to decades of mangrove degradation. The most likely baseline scenario is
identified as degraded tidal wetland, specifically degraded mangrove habitat. The current degraded state
is marked by a scarcity of mangrove propagules, high salinity, damage from grazing and browsing by
camels and other livestock, as well as lopping of branches for fodder and fuelwood. Without the project
activity, ecological conditions necessary for natural mangrove establishment would not occur.

Scenario 2: Natural regeneration of mangroves within the project boundary

Ecological barriers have been identified for this scenario. Various factors hinder the natural regeneration
process in the Project Area, including low availability and long distances from mangrove propagule
sources to certain areas, flushing out of propagules with tidal water, and damage to degenerated areas
due to biotic pressures such as grazing and fodder collection.

Scenario 3: Mangrove regeneration within the project boundaries without registration as a VCS project

Several barriers have been identified for this scenario:

Investment barriers, other than economic/financial barriers:

Limited credit and funding options exist for non-profit activities beyond the Mangroves for the
Future program (a program that no longer is in operation), of which this ARR/RWE project activity
is a part. Other broader development programs at provincial or national levels that incorporate
aspects of ecosystem conservation and restoration have either concluded without renewal or are
currently unfunded or unplanned.

Technological barriers:

The success of the project relies on technical assistance for mangrove restoration. Without the
project, local communities would lack access to necessary materials and infrastructure for
collecting and planting mangrove propagules on a scale required for restoring large de-vegetated
areas. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge and infrastructure for implementing restoration
technologies based on ecological principles.

Social barriers:

The region's population consists largely of fishermen, for whom an intact mangrove habitat is vital
to traditional fisheries, supporting local livelihoods significantly. Large-scale awareness-raising and
community mobilization are crucial for restoring the region with a mangrove ecosystem that
provides multiple economic and ecological benefits. However, without organized programs to
involve and monitor community efforts, local communities are unlikely to develop such initiatives
themselves. Social barriers hindering large-scale mangrove restoration include limited
opportunities and skills, poverty, and illiteracy.

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2.2.2 Most-Likely Scenario Justification (CCB, G2.1)

Continuation of the existing and pre-project land use and land use change scenario is considered as the
most likely scenario.

The scenario justification is provided in Section 3.1.4.

2.2.3 Community and Biodiversity Additionality (CCB, G2.2)

Section 3.1.5 demonstrates project additionality for climate benefits under the VCS, outlining the method
used for this demonstration.

Findings from SBIA workshops and Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs), conducted by the proponents,
indicate that without the project and its expected carbon revenues, benefits to communities and the
region's biodiversity would not materialise. Absent the project, restoration and conservation efforts would
lack funding, resulting in the loss of environmental and community livelihood benefits.

In this scenario, continued degradation of the natural resource base due to unsustainable resource and
land use practices would persist, leading to an increase in poverty and biodiversity degradation over time.
Consequently, communities would remain vulnerable to various economic, social, ecological, and climate
change-related shocks, lacking necessary resilience. Moreover, reforms in policy, legal, and institutional
structures and processes conducive to sustainable community development would not materialise
without the project.

Table 7 outlines the main benefits to communities and biodiversity that would not occur without the project.
For further information on the expected community and biodiversity benefits from project implementation,
refer to Sections 4.2 and 5.2 respectively.

Table 7. Community and biodiversity benefits that would not occur in the absence of the project.

Type of Benefit Expected benefit (long-term impact)

Increased economic, food, environmental and livelihoods security due to greater

availability of fishes and other natural resources

Increased capacities (knowledge, skills and attitudes) for sustainable fishing and
other natural resources on which their livelihoods depend

Increase in and diversification of income and livelihoods sources through jobs and
Community
business opportunities creation and reduced dependence on natural resources as a
source of livelihood

Increased access to low cost and institutional credit and financial resources due to
linkages development

Improved access to markets

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Social and economic empowerment, especially of the marginal and vulnerable groups

Improved access to human well-being facilities such as health, education, safe and
affordable drinking water, hygiene, energy, civic and cultural

Expanded and easy access to various public and private sector service providers

Increased human capacities due to knowledge, skills and positive attitudinal changes
and perspective on life brought about as a result of training and capacity building
activities

Social capital development and improved negotiation and conflict resolution skills

Reduced vulnerabilities to climate change and other related disasters such as sea
level rise, sea water intrusion, coastal erosion, droughts, flooding, and other extreme
weather events, etc.

Increased coping capacities to deal with economic, social and environmental shocks
and trends.

Improved local level governance of natural and other livelihood resources due to
greater information availability, transparency, accountability and management
capacities.

Increased integration of marine, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems thereby leading to

increase in biodiversity of all these ecosystems

Development of common institutional platforms for integrated and coordinated work

in pursuit of biodiversity conservation and sustainable management

Greater knowledge generation, dissemination and availability on coastal biodiversity

Improved planning, policies and governance mechanisms for biodiversity

conservation and sustainable management

Partnerships development for enhanced and up-scaled actions for

Biodiversity
biodiversity conservation

Increased awareness creation and capacities building about the various ecosystem
services of biodiversity

Restoring the health and integrity of wetlands and marine ecosystems and resources
including mangrove forests, fisheries and other resources

Increase in the extent and area of intact wetlands and marine ecosystems thereby

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leading to their quantitative and qualitative improvements and increased resilience to

shocks including climate change

Reduction of threats to biodiversity

At scale enhancement of coastal biodiversity at various levels – ecosystem, species

and genetic

Habitats restoration for endemic, threatened, vulnerable and other at-risk species
and species of special concern

Institutional capacity building for sustainable management of fisheries, biodiversity,

mangroves and other coastal and marine resources

Partnerships development for biodiversity conservation

Increased financial resources availability for biodiversity conservation and sustainable

management

Reduction in perverse incentives that lead to biodiversity degradation and

introduction of environmental fiscal reforms initiatives that support biodiversity
conservation and sustainable management

Management, institutional and technological innovations for biodiversity conservation

and sustainable management

2.2.4 Benefits to be used as Offsets (CCB, G2.2)

DBC-2 is not claiming any other offsets from the community or biodiversity benefits produced by the project
at this time, while reserving the right to do so in the future.
The project may in the future seek to apply the W+ standard, SD VISta standard or Nature Framework to
certify additional impacts such as women empowerment, sustainable development and nature/biodiversity
credits beyond the scope of the VCS and CCB standards but would not use this impact certification to create
carbon offsets.

2.3 Safeguards and Stakeholder Engagement

2.3.1 Stakeholder Identification (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB G1.5)

The Forest Department of the Government of Sindh, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination
leadership have been working together in the Indus River Delta since 2013. Before the project start date a
spatial analysis of the Project Zone was conducted to determine the location of all of the communities near
the areas where restoration work was to begin. A comprehensive participatory rural appraisal with each
community identified in the analysis was then conducted by project staff. During this process, Caelum
Environmental Solutions, Pollination and the Sindh Forest Department worked together to develop a full
understanding of all stakeholders in the region, building on the extensive work already conducted by the

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Forest Department who have had a presence in the area for the past 30 years. This approach strengthened
as well as built new linkages with key stakeholders.
Social and Biodiversity Impact Assessment (SBIA) workshops were held in strategic locations in the Project
Zone with key representatives of community groups. These events were held in Jurio Thaimore, Arab Racho
and Haji Hajam Mallah and full reports of these workshops are available to the validator if required. The
project solicited participation and commenced the process of securing and maintaining free, prior and
informed consent (FPIC) from diverse stakeholders within the Project Zone, including diversity across
educational level, gender, ethnicity, language, and vulnerable group status. Represented stakeholder
groups including local administration, village elders, local community leaders, women, and youth
representatives. Workshops were designed to be highly participatory to provide community members the
opportunity to inform project design and understanding of the local context.

2.3.2 Stakeholder Descriptions (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G1.6, G1.13)

There are 39 villages bordering the Project Area, comprised of 2,570 households with a population of
23,185 people. The area incorporating these communities has been selected to define the Project Zone by
the proponent in conjunction with Forest Department of the Government of Sindh based on a spatial
analysis of community proximity to restoration activities. Being highly dependent on the mangrove forest
and related ecosystem for natural resources renders these communities most likely to be impacted by the
livelihood, health, climate, and social benefits associated with the project.
Project Zone community members have tenure to private land outside of the Project Area and not within it.
However, such community members may have some customary use rights to land within the Project Area.
Based on the rural appraisals carried out, community members can be classified into the following ethnic
groups: Mallah, Fakerani Jatt, Jatt, Thaem, Bhorio, Dhandal, Thaemor, Khaskheli, Malkani, Samejo, Racho,
Chalko, Rajo, Mandaro, and Shaikh. Mallah is the largest ethnic group, accounting for approximately 20%
of community members, followed by the Thaem and Bhorio groups representing approximately 18% and
12% respectively. Fishing is the primary and, for some villages, the only source of income for community

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members within the Project Zone. Approximately 50% of the Project Zone villages also incorporate livestock
or non-livestock-related agriculture instead of, or in addition to, fishing.
A list of stakeholder groups impacted by the project’s various focal issues, and how they are negatively or
positively impacted by the status quo can be found in Appendix 21. Stakeholder Identification Table.

Figure 11. Spatial location of village communities near the Project Zone boundary

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Figure 12. Village communities near the creeks

2.3.2.1 Stakeholders benefiting from status quo

The following list of community groups and specific stakeholders was derived from the stakeholder analysis
performed during the SBIA workshops (see details for selection and inclusion rationale in Table 6. ).

• Money lenders/creditors
• Livestock grazers/fodder collectors
• Upstream dwellers
• Fuelwood gatherers
• Employers

2.3.2.2 Stakeholders adversely affected by status quo.

• Community in general including both present and future generations.

• Government and local authorities
• Youth and women
• Workers and jobseekers
• Borrowers and debtors
• Fishermen

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Table 6. Results from the stakeholder analysis exercise during the SBIA Workshops.

Focal issue 1: Mangrove Forest degradation due to unregulated and unsustainable use

How do they
Direct factor Who benefits Who loses? How they lose?
benefit?

Loss of nursery and habitat

for shrimps and fish, hence
loss of income and
livelihoods
Free collection No chance to see, study,
Fuelwood of biomass for and understand mangrove
gatherers Fishermen forests
Continued and energy
Local Unprepared and not
accelerated Free grazing of
communities as a equipped to face climate
livestock
forest whole change and natural
Upstream - More
degradation Future disasters
dwellers freshwater
generations Lost potential for eco-
Livestock available for
Local authorities tourism development
grazers irrigated
agriculture Lost motivation to join
conservation activities
Unable to collect revenues
for various ecosystem
services

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Focal issue 2: Poverty and impoverished community well-being.

How do
Direct Who
they Who loses? How they lose?
factor benefits
benefit?

Spend to go to distant health posts

and schools
Fishermen Living in poor health conditions
High cost Not Local communities as prone to childhood diseases
No one
of living applicable a whole No or little education
Future generations High infant mortality rate and
Women maternal death during childbirth
Lack of education, skills and jobs

Get high
rates of
interest for Very low incomes paid to labourers
Money loans for hard work
lenders Labour Getting caught in a circular debt
Low exploitation Borrowers trap
Employers
income - Paying Employees Losing income through receipt of
Wholesale
below Fishermen lower prices for fish caught, due to
buyers of
fish market rate lack of cold storage and fraudulent
for fish weighing

Focal issue 3: Continued and accelerated wildlife and habitat loss and fisheries degradation.

How do they
Direct factor Who benefits Who loses? How do they lose?
benefit?

- Communities - Loss and continued

including decline of access to
fishermen, various ecosystem
Inability to services of mangroves
livestock owners,
restore
agriculturists
degraded - Communities and other
No one Not Applicable stakeholders lose
mangrove - Youth and the
areas and next generation confidence in the
wetlands organization to protect
- Government and develop the resource

- Decrease in staff
motivation and

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organizational pride

- Declining catches
- Fishermen - Human-wildlife conflicts
Lack of
wildlife - Communities Inability to enjoy nature
habitat/ No one Not Applicable due to loss of wildlife and
fisheries - Government
biodiversity resources
degradation
- Loss of potential for eco-
tourism

Focal issue 4: Lack of opportunity for women through education, economic empowerment, or leadership

How do
Who
Direct factor they Who loses? How do they lose?
benefits
benefit?

Women engage in low-wage or unpaid

work
Lack of Women Barriers to organization negatively
No one N/A
Communities impact communities and women
educational
Government Prevalence of informal and unpaid
opportunities
work limits government revenue
Fewer women owned and led
businesses
Less economic participation and
dynamism
Lack of
Women Time poverty due to unpaid work
economic No one N/A Inability to access credit, vocational
Communities
empowerment training, or ownership of assets
Government

Lack of Limited advocacy for women’s issues

Women relating to health, education, economic
leadership No one N/A
Communities opportunities
opportunities
Government Inefficient allocation of resources

2.3.3 Stakeholder Access to Project Documents (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G3.1)

Access to project information is a key part of the project’s plans to secure and maintain FPIC from local
communities in and around the Project Zone. As part of this plan, various project documents will be publicly
available and hence all stakeholders will have access to them. A hard copy in English, Urdu and Sindhi of
the full PD, the monitoring results and reports, and the feedback and grievance redress procedure will be
made available for public viewing at the project offices in Pakistan and the United Kingdom.

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The PD will also be posted on the project’s website at: deltabluecarbon2.com. An executive summary in
Urdu and Sindhi will be posted in public places in the Project Zone, along with a contact email address.
Internet access is limited in many parts of the Project Zone, but mobile phones are commonplace, and
WhatsApp is the preferred method of communication for most community members. Hence, a WhatsApp
group will be set up and key community contacts added to the group to receive regular bulletins and allow
them to give their feedback. Through these methods the project will emphasize clear and accessible
documentation in a locally appropriate manner.

2.3.4 Dissemination of Summary Project Documents (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G3.1)

The project has a full-fledged communication and information dissemination strategy to share all the
needed information in a proactive and fruitful manner to the various stakeholder groups including the local
communities. As part of this communication strategy, the project is already sharing project documents and
all relevant information for awareness raising, getting feedback and capacity building.

Summary project documentation will be actively disseminated to communities in a number of ways. The
English language version of the summary project documentation will be translated in Urdu (national
language) and Sindhi (local language). Copies of these translated documents will be kept in the three
regional project offices (Shah Bandar, Sujawal, Jatti/Chuhar Jamali) and the main project office in Karachi.

These documents will also be shared, discussed and fully explained to communities in various meetings
and workshops. Further, these will be uploaded to the project website as per Section 2.3.3.

A poster/notice in Urdu and Sindhi advertising the public comment period for the PD will be posted in
communities throughout the Project Zone. It will include details on how a comment can be made to the
CCB. The project’s community outreach workers will also contact members through their local networks in
the Project Zone and inform them of the notice period for comments.

Summary information on monitoring results will also be actively disseminated to communities in line with
the project communication and information sharing strategy and plan.

Through the maintenance of a constant presence in the Project Zone the project’s community development
team will be positioned to answer questions and serve community members face to face on an ongoing
basis.

2.3.5 Informational Meetings with Stakeholders (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G3.1)

Since the project began, information regarding DBC-2 has been communicated to stakeholders through a
series of meetings that have taken place in socially and culturally appropriate settings for both male and
female community members.

These Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs) were conducted by the project’s community development
officers (both male and female) and experienced members of the Sindh Forest Department. All meetings
were widely publicised and known events. Participants of the meetings also included local elected officials
and representatives of administration (see Appendix 3. PRAs, SBIA Workshops, and FPIC Meetings). These
meetings were meant to establish a closer liaison with these key stakeholders. They were held in Sindhi
language to ensure that the information was communicated to and understood by all participants. The
overall vision, goal, development objectives and project activities pertaining to climate, biodiversity and
community development were shared and explained to attendees during each session. This was followed

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by an open discussion and question and answer session. To gain a greater understanding of community
issues and needs, many one-to-one household meetings were also conducted in various villages in the
Project Zone.

2.3.6 Risks from the Project and No Net Harm (VCS, 3.18, 3.19)

Project activities are designed and executed to deliver positive environmental and biodiversity impacts. As
such, no environmental or biodiversity risks are anticipated as a result of the project activities. A minor
environmental consideration is the treatment of waste products from construction and renovation as part
of the community development program of activities. For further discussion of waste products refer to
Section 5.2.9. Risks resulting from project activities then are largely community and work health and safety
related.

Working conditions

Certain work undertaken in execution of the project activities inherently presents a risk to the health and
safety of workers, in particular roles that require spending extended periods outdoors in the mangrove
terrain. Specific roles include plantation and nursery work, plot samplers and forest protection staff, who
may be faced with challenging soil conditions as well as the risk of encountering various harming agents.
The project has created and will regularly revise a health and safety plan that ensures all workers’ health
and safety is protected, and that all workers are fully informed about workplace risks and safe practices to
mitigate those risks. Section 2.3.19 provides further discussion of such risks and mitigating actions.

Stakeholder participation

Community stakeholder meetings were conducted to understand how project activities will affect income,
livelihoods and the overall wellbeing of the communities more broadly. Stakeholders identified to be
negatively impacted by the with-project scenario include the poachers, fuelwood collectors and illegal
livestock grazers, as well as the traders, middlemen, and employers groups. While some of these activities
are illegal, a portion of these groups depend on them for basic livelihood support which project activities
are seeking to largely replace. Such risks to livelihoods, however, are expected only in the short-term with
net benefits to accrue as a result of employment opportunities provided by project activities, improved
community facilities (water, education, and health), and avoidance of legal conflict. More information on
risks and mitigating actions for these groups is provided in Section 4.2.2 and Section 4.5.3.

Beyond these two identified groups, the enhanced enforcement of laws pertaining to conservation and the
implementation of sustainable fishing practices were identified as potentially aggrieving a broader range
of community stakeholders in the short-term. Community education, capacity building, and promotion of
alternative livelihoods are key mitigation actions that are further outlined in Section 4.5.3.

Minority and marginalised groups

Marginal community groups include women, children, coastal fishing communities, coastal crop husbandry
and livestock rearing communities, the landless poor, and daily wage earners. As project activities
commence there is a risk to these marginalised groups of:
• The capture of project benefits by non-marginalised, elite groups

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• Exclusion from the program activities, benefits, and decision making

• Lack of access to project information and other benefits due to entrenched disadvantage

• Exploitation by lenders, purchasers, middlemen, employers, and other agents

Please see an expanded discussion of these risks and mitigating actions in Section 4.5.4 and a dedicated
section regarding women and girls in Section 4.5.5.

Mitigation actions

Elements of the Project design to mitigate specific risks have been outlined or referenced above. However,
several overarching measures to mitigate risks to livelihoods and overall wellbeing have been built into the
project and are referenced throughout this document. Major elements of these measures are discussed in
the following Section 2.3.7 and include the participatory and community-led history of the Project and the
approach to Free, Prior, and Informed Consent. Additionally, proactive protection of the rights of workers
and local communities as Project stakeholders is an integral overarching risk mitigation measure ensuring
no net harm. Land rights within and adjacent to the Project Zone have been demarcated and documented
per Section 2.5.6 in recognition and protection of pre-existing claims to land and resources as an important
means of economic and social empowerment. Similarly, the Project takes a strict anti-discrimination stance
adopting an assurance policy as outlined in Section 2.3.14 to ensure equal protection of rights and
opportunities for all community groups. Section 2.5.3 also details the various means through which human
rights are protected by the Project in the execution of its activities.

2.3.7 Community Costs, Risks, and Benefits (CCB, G3.2)

DBC-2 is a PPP based participatory project and has been designed through engagement of relevant
communities and stakeholders. From its inception, the project has involved local communities in decision-
making (as described further in Section 2.1.17 and Sections 2.3.10 to Section 2.3.13).

Discussions and collaboration between local project partners with the goal of initiating and implementing
a restoration project in the Indus Delta area first began in 2012, leading to an initial Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) in 2013 and subsequently a project agreement in 2015 between the project partners
and the launch of the DBC-1 Project. The Sindh Forest Department has been active in the area maintaining
and building relationships with the communities since early 1970s.

DBC-2 builds on the successful restoration efforts and effective community engagement initiatives of its
predecessor, DBC-1, in the Indus Delta Area. Building on the existing foundation set by DBC-1, and
leveraging the local project partners' extensive history in the region, many communities are already aware
of the project partners' efforts and the positive outcomes they bring.

The project began targeted outreach to introduce the project and its history. This was a two-way process
where the project also solicited information on how project design and implementation could serve the
communities in the DBC-2 Project Area. Open communication channels were established with them prior
to the start of the project’s design phase. The project partners have conducted numerous surveys and
studies in the area and a suite of community meetings that focused on Free, Prior and Informed Consent.
These interactions and meetings also served as and provided the basis for establishing and communicating
the project’s costs, risks and benefits with the communities (see Section 4.5).

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The project will establish field offices which will serve as information hubs for DBC-2 and will be open to all
community members and stakeholders who wish to gain information about the project and/or submit
comments or grievances. The project will further maintain a constant presence in the impacted
communities and engage in annual monitoring campaigns which will serve to create multiple touchpoints
for continuous engagement.

Through both structured and informal avenues, the project’s design and implementation will serve to
maximize community benefits and address risks faced by communities. The project is implemented on
protected government land, serving to manage many of the risks and costs typically associated with AFOLU
projects.

2.3.8 Information to Stakeholders on Validation and Verification Process (VCS, 3.18.6, 3.19; CCB, G3.3)

See Sections 2.3.3 and 2.3.4.

2.3.9 Site Visit Information and Opportunities to Communicate with Auditor (VCS, 3.18.6; CCB, G3.3)

The project has and will actively communicate to community members and stakeholders about the PD
preparation process of DBC-2 Project, start of the public comment period and the methods with which they
can submit comments on the project as well as how to view full project documentation (See Sections 2.3.3
and 2.3.4). This has been accomplished by communicating the project public comment related process
and period requirements and guidance of VERRA/VCS/CCB to the local communities, community groups
and other stakeholders.

The proponents will facilitate the validation and verification processes and arrange meetings between
communities and other stakeholders with the VVB and will also arrange for community and other
stakeholders’ meetings during future verification site visits.

During these meetings, the auditor(s) will be able to directly and independently ask any questions related
to the project.

2.3.10 Stakeholder Consultations (VCS, 3.18; CCB, G3.4)

The Sindh Forest Department has been interacting and maintaining a regular dialogue with stakeholders
in the coastal area communities for more than 30 years. In addition to those regular contacts, the process
of community and stakeholder identification was further supplemented by a series of interviews conducted
by project staff at the community level since the launch of the project. As a result of the various socio-
economic studies and meetings/workshop discussions – coupled with an analysis of rights and a literature
review – the proponents have gained an in-depth knowledge of all relevant stakeholders. This has been
further developed through the extensive engagement undertaken in the neighbouring DBC-1 Project Zone.
Through this process it has been possible to obtain a well-informed and comprehensive understanding of
all communities and community groups in the Project Zone to ensure FPIC is maintained on an ongoing
basis for project activities.

The project views FPIC as a principle that is inherently linked to the human right of self-determination. As
described in Sections 2.3 the project provided advance notice of potential activities in a culturally sensitive,
clear, and transparent manner, before implementation. Crucially, the project was conceived in partnership
with local communities, who were active leaders in the design process. The project considers FPIC to be

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revocable at any time and maintains an ongoing presence in the local community to ensure alignment with
community guidance and needs.

More than 30 meetings have been held which have been attended by hundreds of community members
from the Project Zone.

Significant time was given between the initial contacts with the community, subsequent discussions at the
community level and the time that any formal decision-making was expected from the community. For
details of these consultative meetings including the dates, locations and participants of the meetings (see
Appendix 3. PRAs, SBIA Workshops, and FPIC Meetings).

As a result of these discussions and consultations, a number of insights have emerged about the
characteristics of stakeholders and community groups, their impacts on the project and their interactions
with other groups. See Appendix 5 Stakeholder Analysis for a full stakeholder analysis. Local leaders and
other key informants are also of immense value for providing useful information about the communities
and conditions in the Project Zone as they have been based in the area and witnessed conditions evolve
over time. As a result, they possess substantial knowledge and enjoy the trust of the local population.

Key informants consulted include:

• Mr. Riaz Ahmed Wagan is the Chief Conservator of Forests, Coastal Areas and Rangelands Region,
Sindh Forest Department. He has been working in the region for the past 25 years and has built
strong linkages and has gained the trust of the communities in the Project Zone on behalf of the
Government.
• Mr. Arif Ali Khokar is the Conservator of Forests, in charge of Coastal Forest Circle. He is an expert
on mangroves, biodiversity conservation and coastal areas development. He has also been
associated with mangroves protection, conservation and development as well as community
development in the region for the past 20 years and was instrumental in maximising the impact of
the SBIA workshops.
• Mr. Shehzad Gill Divisional Forest Officer is the lead person for forest restoration, biodiversity
conservation and community outreach in the Sujawal, Thatta and Karachi Districts. Over the past
20 years he has led mangrove restoration, community development and biodiversity conservation
activities in the region and has gained the trust of the communities in and around the Shah Bandar,
Karochhan and other areas.
• Mr. Sain Bux Shaikh Divisional is another lead person with substantial experience and expertise in
mangrove restoration, biodiversity conservation and community development in Sujawal and Badin
districts.
• Mr. Muhammad Khan Jamali, Range Forest Officer, who is in-charge of and leading the community
development, biodiversity conservation and mangrove restoration activities in the Project Area.
• Mr. Zeeshan Ali, Range Forest Officer, is in-charge of and responsible for restoration, conservation
and community development works too in Sujawal and Badin districts.
• Mr. Sulemain Kaskheli, Range Forest Officer is a person with a lot of experience with the Project
Zone communities.
• Mr. Wahid Bhatti, a forester is hailing from the area and has been working with local communities
for many decades.
• Mr. Shakeel Memon is a community activist and community development specialist. He hails from
the Project Area and is a valuable resource for the project in community engagement.

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• Miss Ainy Zehra is a highly respected published academic, who has worked in the environmental
sector for the past 10 years. She has been involved in delivering capacity building workshops at
the local and national level over the past 10 years on various subject in including wetlands
management, biodiversity conservation, REDD+ and ‘Human Resource Management for Uplift of
Rural Society’. She was instrumental in delivering and leading the project’s SBIA workshops.
Building on this extensive knowledge base several SBIA assessments were conducted with all key
stakeholder representatives in strategic locations throughout the Project Zone to maximise coverage and
participation (see Section 2.1.17and Appendix 20).

Using the project theory of change and its logical framework participants developed the project vision, goals
and objectives, outputs and project activities in participatory fashion.

As a result, the proponents along with other project stakeholders and communities have been able to
identify and prioritise focal issues, potential risks and mitigating measures as well as indicators to be used
for tracking their impact (see Sections 4.4.1 and 5.4.1).

Table 9. SBIA Workshops

Date and location of 2-3 March 2023 at:

consultation
• Haji Hajam Mallah
• Channesar Mallah
• Sheikh Keryo
• Shaikh Keryo Bhandario
• Morio Mandaro
• Golo Mandaro
• Lakha Dino Rajo
• Muhammad Raheem Mandaro
5-6 March 2023 at:
• Haji Arab Racho
• Ghulam Hussain Racho
• Duru Racho
• Khan Muhammad Mallah
• Faiz Muhammad Dhandal
• Essa Mandaro
9-10 March 2023 at:
• Joryo Thaemor, Qasim Bohrio
• Hassan Bohrio

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• Haji Lalo Thaemor

• Ali Muhammad Racho
• Basrio Thaemor
• Umar Bhorio
• Muhammad Dhandal
Stakeholder The stakeholder engagement process largely followed the model
engagement process outlined in Table 10 with consultations held in an accessible
format from a geographic (on-site) and language perspective.
Consultation outcome The purpose of the SBIA workshops was to develop the Theory of
Change and monitoring plan in a participatory environment and
identify stakeholders, project interventions, potential negative
impacts of the project as well as mitigation strategies.
Villagers affirmed their support for the project and its various
interventions.
Stakeholder input Villagers provided their input for development of Project Theory of
Change, identification of focal issues, causal flow diagrams,
identification of any potential negative impacts of the project on
different stakeholder groups, mitigation strategies, and
development of the project monitoring plan.

Table 10. FPIC Consultations

Date and location of 4-December-2021 at:

consultations
• Haji Lalo Thaemor
• Basrio Thaemor
• Muhammad Dhandal
• Umar Bhorio
• Ali Muhammad Racho
31-December-2021 at:
• Haji Dongar
• Haji Qasim Thaem
• Yousaf Mallah
10-January-2022 at:
• Muhammad Raheem Mandaro
• Lakha Dino Rajo

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• Shaikh Keryo
• Shaikh Keryo Bhandari
• Golo Mandaro
• Haji Hajam Mallah
• Morio Mandaro
• Channey Saz
13-January-2022 at:
• Haji Arab Racho
• Umar Thaimore
• Khan Muhammad Mallah
• Kareem Deno Rajo
• Faiz Muhammad Dhandal
• Ghulam Hussain Racho
• Duru Racho
• Haji Sumar Chalko
• Sahu Rajo
26-January-2022 at:
• Abdul Saffar Jatt
• Mian Dhandal
• Essa Mandaro
1-February-2022 at:
• Muhammad Ameen Khaskhali
• Noor Muhammad Thaemor
• Haji Hassan Samejo
• Raj Malak Malkhani
• Allah Dino Samejo
• Haji Achan Thaemor
3-February-2022 at:
• Joryo Thaemor
• Hassan Bhorio
• Qasim Bhorio

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Stakeholder FPIC meetings were held on-site in Project Zone villages. The
engagement process agendas were extended to communities in advance and in a timely
manner, using all the methods of communication available to the
project partners. Meetings and communications were conducted in
Sindhi or Urdu languages so that all participants could effectively
understand and fully participate in the structured discussion.
Participants were also given sufficient time to do subsequent
consultations at the community level before formal decision
making and project implementation began as indicated by the time
elapsed between consultations and the project start date.
Importantly, the meetings listed above are the culmination of a
range of prior formal and informal communication channels
including roundtables, forums, establishment of village
development committees and stewardship committees, women’s
groups, virtually hosted discussion groups, and other channels
facilitated by the Project’s feedback and grievance redress
mechanisms.

Consultation outcome The purpose of these consultations was to decide and document
at a point in time whether, based on all prior communications,
discussions, and information sharing, the village and its
participants consent to the implementation and monitoring of
project activities and the overall DBC-2 Project. The outcome of all
such consultations was to provide consent to and approve the
implementation of project activities.

Stakeholder input The scope and variety of communication channels utilized over an
extended period of time prior to project commencement was
designed to elicit as much feedback from as broad a range of
stakeholders as possible in a manner timely enough to incorporate
feedback into the planning and design of the project activities and
execution.
The insights that emerged through the consultation process
informed key design items such as the strategic priorities of the
community development programs, content of the MSAs and FSAs,
and constitution of stewardship committees.

Given the ongoing and discursive nature of community consultations through a variety of
forums, Table 11 provides the nature of key feedback and project responses in summary form
only.

Table 11. Comments received during consultations

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When comment was

Summary of comment received Actions taken
received

A non-mangrove woody species Throughout discussions at Investment in and provision of solar

Prosopis juliflora, locally called SBIA workshops and FPIC panels as an alternative energy source
Devi, is the main source of meetings in 2021, 2022, to woody vegetation forming a part of
energy and fuel for local and 2023. project activities.
communities in the Indus Delta.

Ecosystem degradation Throughout discussions at Training provided for more sustainable

including loss of mangroves for SBIA workshops and FPIC use of existing resources (controlled
timber and declining fish stocks meetings in 2021, 2022, grazing, sustainable fishery practices).
are threatening livelihoods. and 2023.
Creation of alternative livelihood
opportunities through planting and
participatory forest management.
Ecosystem restoration to boost future
resources by improving fish habitat
and thereby fish stocks for sustainable
production and consumption.

CommunDeities do not have the Throughout discussions at Capacity development and training on
resources or know-how to SBIA workshops and FPIC sustainable resource management will
implement sustainable meetings in 2021, 2022, be funded and carried out by the
resource use. Key activities and 2023. project partners.
raised during consultation were
A combination of carbon finance and
crab farming, aquaculture,
microfinance access will be used to
livestock rearing, training for
fund new equipment such as fishing
the sorting, processing and
nets and cold storage facilities
marketing of fish.
required to carry out the sustainable
practices that are the subject of
training.
The project will actively seek to
establish linkages between the users
of these products and local labour that
can manufacture them in order
capture more value within local
economies.

There are limited opportunities Throughout discussions at Women’s empowerment made one of
for women’s participation in SBIA workshops and FPIC the project’s four focal issues.
community leadership, civil meetings in 2021, 2022,
Establishment of women’s and girl’s
society, and economic and 2023.
groups for community decision making.
empowerment.

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Bursary and school funding focused on

boosting access for girls.
Funding for women’s healthcare
specifically.
Focus on programmes with broader
impact (eg solar panels) that also
reduce women’s time poverty (from
collecting fuelwood).

Lack of formal education and Throughout discussions at Establishment of a school bursary

literacy rates are entrenching a SBIA workshops and FPIC scheme and implementation of
poverty cycle in the Indus Delta. meetings in 2021, 2022, organised transport to schools for
and 2023. isolated villages.
Funding allocations to improve school
resources and infrastructure.

Health outcomes in the Indus Throughout discussions at The project is to apportion

Delta are poor and, in some SBIA workshops and FPIC development funding on upgrades to,
areas, worsening over time. meetings in 2021, 2022, and equipment for, rural health
and 2023. centres.
The project will construct new
washrooms to improve sanitation.
Establishment and proper functioning
of fresh water sources is a priority
allocation of project funding.

2.3.11 Continued Consultation and Adaptive Management (VCS, 3.18; CCB, G3.4)

Project partners recognise and acknowledge the fact that mangroves and other coastal and marine
ecosystems restored under the project are in a constant state of flux due to a number of climatic, ecological,
and anthropogenic phenomena. Therefore, uncertainties abound in these systems as well as the
effectiveness and outcomes of the various decisions taken regarding their management. To cater to these,
project partners have developed an information collection, communication and consultation plan about the
implementation of various project interventions.

Using this plan, a number of approaches and processes will be followed to regularly collect information
about the outcomes of implemented decisions through surveys, focus group discussions, workshops,
thematic studies, etc. Using the collected information, any potential problems and barriers hampering the
achievement of objectives will be identified and assessed in Climate, Social and Biodiversity Impact
Assessment Workshops.

Using these workshops and in consultation with communities and other stakeholders, solutions to those
problems will be designed. These solutions would then be implemented, monitored and evaluated. Any
further adjustments will be made again, if there is need for such adjustments. This adaptive management
process will be implemented in cyclic, systematic and iterative manner as diagrammatically depicted below:

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Project activities are monitored and evaluated on a regular basis according to the project’s monitoring plans
and standard operating procedures (SOPs) with respect to these various activities. The information
becoming available as a result of these monitoring and evaluation activities and continued consultations
with stakeholders will be fed into future actions and decision making so as to enable adaptive management
of the project and its interventions.

2.3.12 Stakeholder Consultation Channels (CCB, G3.5)

Keeping in view the various constraints (language and literacy related constraints; mobility, access and
time related constraints; socio-cultural and low confidence levels related constraints) faced by local
communities in the Project Zone to effectively participate in planning and decision making, DBC-2 has
developed a Project Communication Strategy which makes use of a number of stakeholder consultation
channels and mechanisms to share information with and get feedback from the various stakeholder
groups. These include the formation of stakeholder roundtables and forums, establishment of village
development committees and women groups, Mangrove and Biodiversity Conservation Stewardship
Committees, Fisheries Stewardship Committees, formation of dedicated stakeholders virtual groups (for
sharing voice and text messages in Sindhi and Urdu for sharing information about project and getting
community members and other stakeholders feedback), community motivators and activists, as well as all
the channels as given in and made use of in the project feedback and grievance redress mechanism of the
project.

Using these various stakeholder consultation channels, the project has used a number of consultation
methods such as meetings, workshops (including SIA workshops), focus group discussions, surveys and
organised special events (Guinness World Records setting, etc.) and days (Mangroves and Wetlands Day,
Forest Day, Biodiversity Day, Environment Day, Plantation Day, etc.) for continued consultation with
stakeholders.

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A complete report of the various meetings and workshops, including pictures, video and meeting results
are available and will be provided to the VVB.

2.3.13 Stakeholder Participation in Decision-Making and Implementation (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G3.6)

Figure 14. FPIC and SBIA workshops with local communities

To ensure effective participation of DBC-2 communities, it was important to hold meetings and
consultations at places and during time periods where stakeholders could attend and were held in culturally
appropriate and a gender sensitive manner. Consultation agendas were extended to communities
beforehand and in timely manner, using all the methods of communication available to the project partners.
All meetings and communications were conducted in Sindhi or Urdu languages so that every participant
could effectively understand and fully participate in the structured discussion. Participants were also given
sufficient time to do subsequent consultations at the community level before formal decision making.

The Sindh Forest Department has been interacting and maintaining a regular dialogue with stakeholders
in the coastal area communities for more than 30 years. In addition to those regular contacts, the process
of community and stakeholder identification was further supplemented by a series of interviews conducted
by project staff at the community level since the launch of the project. As a result of the various socio-
economic studies and meetings/workshop discussions – coupled with an analysis of rights and a literature
review – the proponents have gained an in-depth knowledge of all relevant stakeholders.

Through this process it has been possible to obtain a well-informed and comprehensive understanding of
all communities and community groups in the Project Zone and obtain their FPIC for project activities.

In total for the FPIC process and other project related activities, more than 40 meetings have been held
since 2020 which have been attended by hundreds of community members from the Project Zone.

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Figure 15. Women participants of FPIC and SBIA workshop.

Significant time was given between the initial contacts with the community, subsequent discussions at
the community level and the time that any formal decision-making was expected from the community.
For details of these consultative meetings including the dates, locations and participants of the
meetings (see Appendix 3).

As a result of these discussions and consultations, a number of insights have emerged about the
characteristics of stakeholders and community groups, their impacts on the project and their interactions
with other groups. See Appendix 5 for a full stakeholder analysis. Local leaders and other key informants
are also of immense value for providing useful information about the communities and conditions in the
Project Zone as they have been based in the area and witnessed conditions evolve over time. As a result,
they possess substantial knowledge and enjoy the trust of the local population.

Key informants consulted include:

Mr. Riaz Ahmed Wagan is the Chief Conservator of Forests, Coastal Areas and Rangelands Region, Sindh
Forest Department. He has been working in the region for the past 25 years and has built strong linkages
and has gained the trust of the communities in the Project Zone on behalf of the Government.

Mr. Arif Ali Khokar is the Conservator of Forests, in charge of Coastal Forest Circle. He is an expert on
mangroves, biodiversity conservation and coastal areas development. He has also been associated with
mangroves protection, conservation and development as well as community development in the region for
the past 20 years and was instrumental in maximising the impact of the SBIA workshops.

Building on this extensive knowledge base several SBIA assessments were conducted with all key
stakeholder representatives in strategic locations throughout the Project Zone to maximise coverage and
participation (see Section 2.1.17 and Appendix 20).

Using the project theory of change and its logical framework participants developed the project vision, goals
and objectives, outputs and project activities in participatory fashion.

As a result, the proponents along with other project stakeholders and communities have been able to
identify and prioritise focal issues, potential risks and mitigating measures as well as indicators to be used
for tracking their impact (see Sections 4.4.1 and 5.4.1).

2.3.14 Anti-Discrimination Assurance (VCS 3.19; CCB, G3.7)

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The project is dedicated to ensuring fair treatment and equal opportunities for all stakeholders, community
members, and employees. Neither the project nor any of its representatives will discriminate against any
individual for any reason, including, but not limited to, gender, religion, nationality, tribe, or sexual identity.
DBC-2 is committed to maintaining a workplace and programs that are safe and free from all forms of
harassment. The project has developed a comprehensive anti-discrimination and non-harassment
assurance document outlining its complete policy, which will be provided to the VVB for review.

2.3.15 Feedback and Grievance Redress Procedure (VCS, 3.18.4; CCB, G3.8)

By establishing a robust Feedback and Grievance Redress Mechanism (FGRM), DBC-2 aims to promote
stakeholder engagement, transparency, and accountability, ultimately contributing to the sustainable
management and conservation of mangrove ecosystems in the Indus Delta. It is crucial for fostering
transparency, accountability, and community engagement. Mangrove restoration projects often involve
significant environmental, social, and economic implications for local communities. Therefore, it is
imperative to ensure that the concerns, feedback, and grievances of stakeholders are effectively addressed
throughout the project lifecycle. The FGRM adheres to the following principles:

• Accessibility: The mechanism should be easily accessible to all stakeholders, including

marginalised and vulnerable groups, through multiple and easily accessible channels such as in-
person contacts, dropboxes, hotlines, community meetings, emails, project website and other
online platforms.

• Transparency: All processes, procedures, and decisions within the FGRM should be transparent
and communicated clearly to stakeholders.

• Fairness and Impartiality: Grievances are addressed in a fair, impartial, and non-discriminatory
manner, ensuring that all stakeholders receive equitable treatment.

• Timeliness: Grievances are handled promptly, with clear timelines for resolution, to prevent
escalation and minimize disruptions to project activities.

• Confidentiality: Stakeholders' privacy and confidentiality are respected throughout the grievance
handling process, unless disclosure is necessary for resolution.

• Accountability: Project partners and relevant authorities are accountable for their actions and
responsible for addressing grievances in accordance with established procedures.

Development process The Feedback and Grievance Redress Mechanism (FGRM) was
meticulously developed through a comprehensive process that
prioritized the voices and needs of local communities according to
the following:
1. Extensive Consultations with Local Communities: The
FGRM was not conceived in isolation but emerged through
meaningful engagement with the communities directly
impacted by the DBC-2 Project. During the phase of
obtaining Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC),

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consultations were held to understand community

perspectives, concerns, and expectations regarding
feedback mechanisms and grievance redressal. This
ensured that the FGRM was designed to truly address the
needs of those it serves.
2. SBIA Workshops with Local Communities: SBIA (Social and
Biodiversity Impact Assessment) workshops were
conducted, providing a platform for open dialogue between
project stakeholders and local communities. These
workshops facilitated a deeper understanding of
community dynamics, power structures, and
communication channels. Insights gathered from these
workshops informed the development of the FGRM,
ensuring its relevance and effectiveness in the local
context.
3. Learning from DBC-1 Project: The experiences gained, and
lessons learned from the implementation of the DBC-1
Project were critically examined. By doing an in-depth
analysis of the design and implementation aspects of DBC-
1 project's feedback and grievance redressal mechanisms,
valuable insights were gleaned to inform the design of
FGRM for DBC-2. This iterative approach ensured that
lessons learned from past and best practices were
incorporated into the new mechanism.
4. Alignment with National and International Standards:
Recognising the importance of adherence to national
FGRM requirements and international standards, the
development process of the FGRM carefully considered
these guidelines. By aligning with established standards
and best practices, the FGRM was designed to uphold
principles of transparency, accountability, and
accessibility, thereby ensuring credibility and
trustworthiness.
5. Adaptation to Local Circumstances: Perhaps most
importantly, the FGRM was tailored to fit the specific socio-
cultural, economic, and environmental circumstances
prevailing in the Project Area. Local customs, language
preferences, literacy levels, and existing community
structures were all taken into account to ensure that the
FGRM resonated with and was accessible to all members
of the community. This localisation process was crucial in
fostering ownership and acceptance of the mechanism
among its intended users.

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In summary, the development of the Feedback and Grievance

Redress Mechanism for the DBC-2 Project was a collaborative and
inclusive process that integrated local perspectives, learned from
past experiences, adhered to established standards, and
prioritized contextual relevance. By placing community
engagement and empowerment at its core, the FGRM was
designed to foster trust, transparency, and accountability
throughout the project implementation process.

Grievance redress The project employs a proactive feedback and grievance redress
procedure policy through a structured process. The importance of an effective
non-judicial complaint mechanisms as a means of redress in the
event of disputes between the proponents and communities is key to
successful project implementation.

Developing robust complaint procedures for local community

members not only serves as a platform to resolve grievances but will
help open channels for more effective communication.

Furthermore, the mechanism does not in any way inhibit their access
to legal or judicial recourse processes. The proponents believe
complainants should be free to pursue legal or judicial processes at
any stage if they feel their concerns are not being adequately
addressed by the mechanism. The project implements a seven-step
grievance resolution mechanism (set out in an SOP which will be
made available to the VVB) as outlined below.

Step 1: Engage Community Member and Receive Grievance

Our dedicated grievance manager (GM) will receive the grievance and
is responsible for documenting and recording it into a stakeholder
complaints log database. Stakeholders can make their initial
complaint in person or by using any of the communication methods
described above in Sections 2.3.3 and 2.3.4. The mechanism is
accessible, and the proponents will promote external awareness of
its existence and guide to its use.

Step 2: Carry out a Preliminary Assessment

An initial assessment of the grievance will be conducted by the GM.

Grievances will be classified into a number of categories, such as
environmental, cultural heritage, land disturbance, recruitment
procedures, health and safety, human rights, physical or economic
displacement or related to a specific community development
activity. For each of these categories, the relevant person within the
company will be assigned to deal with the specific details of
investigating the grievance.

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Step 3: Respond to Grievance

A written communication to the complainant to acknowledge the

grievance and provide information as to expected next steps and
timing for resolution of the grievance will be provided within seven
working days of the receipt of the grievance. Where illiteracy is
common, consideration will be given to the means of communicating
this message. In such cases a community outreach worker will
communicate the information in person through the available
channels.

Step 4: Investigate and Resolve

The relevant person(s) will investigate the underlying cause(s) of the

grievance and develop actions needed to prevent recurrence of a
similar grievance. The approach and team membership to complete
the investigation will depend upon the category and level of the
grievance. Some investigations may require a simple examination of
the situation, whereas others may require discussions with many
stakeholders, both internal and external. Wherever possible
communities and respected third parties will be involved in the design
and implementation of solutions.

Step 5: Conclusion

The GM will follow the investigation procedure in order to develop

recommendations to ensure the grievance does not reoccur. The
aggrieved parties will be engaged and their views about the company
recommendations sought through dialogue. If the complainant is
satisfied, then the GM manager shall seek their sign-off that the
grievance has been resolved. This process will be completed within
28 days of receiving the initial complaint.

Step 6: Further Action

If the complainant is not satisfied with the proposed solution, the GM

will initiate further investigation to determine what different approach
may be taken. In the case that satisfaction cannot be achieved, the
grievance may be referred for third party mediation, arbitration or
courts.

Step 7: Monitoring and Evaluation

Part of the grievance management procedure will be entering the

details and each step of progress into the company’s stakeholder
engagement database. At monthly intervals, the number and nature
of grievances received, resolved and outstanding will be tallied and
reported to management and advisers. Bi-annually, the trends and
time taken for grievance resolution shall be analysed and the

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evaluation used for assessing the efficacy of the mechanisms. If the

procedure is not managing to resolve the majority of grievances
within the set time frames, then the mechanism will be adjusted.
Better indicators of success are that resolution is received to the
satisfaction of both parties within the agreed amount of time
specified in the procedure on a majority of cases and that there are
not recurring complaints about the same issues.

2.3.16 Accessibility of the Feedback and Grievance Redress Procedure (VCS, 3.19; CCB, G3.8)

Sections 2.3.3 and 2.3.4 describe the mechanisms in place to enable accessibility of the feedback and
grievance redress procedure and how it will be advertised and made publicly available.

2.3.17 Worker Training (VCS, 3.19; CCB, G3.9)

The project is dedicated to investing in the training and capacity building of all relevant individuals and
organisations. This commitment spans from project staff to communities within the project area, as well as
local collaborators, including both civil society and government entities.

Various forms of training and capacity building initiatives will be employed, ranging from work shadowing
and internships to ad hoc training sessions and formal learning programs. Appendix 6 provides a summary
of the key components of the project's training and capacity building program.

The implementation of these training and capacity building activities will involve utilizing in-house
resources, various government departments, as well as external individuals and organisations. Additionally,
the training program will undergo periodic review and enhancement based on lessons learned during
implementation to meet evolving needs effectively.

The project makes particular efforts to promote culturally appropriate gender-inclusive training and hiring
practices. This extends to both direct employment by project staff and community-based employment
opportunities.

2.3.18 Community Employment Opportunities (VCS, 3.19.13; CCB, G3.10)

Local employment generation holds a prominent position in the priorities of DBC-2, with a strong emphasis
on local sourcing throughout the project's various levels. The proponents recognise that local hiring,
particularly of women and individuals from marginalized and vulnerable communities, offers significant
advantages for both project implementation and operation. This is due to the intimate familiarity and
knowledge that local individuals possess about the landscape and ecosystem, ensuring the sustainability
of project interventions both during and beyond the project's lifetime.

DBC-2, the project partners, have formulated an Equal Employment Opportunity Policy (EEOP). Following
the implementation of this policy, all job positions within the project's central office will be openly advertised
through the project office within the Project Area.

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However, the majority of the local workforce in the Project Zone are limited to manual labour jobs due to
poor literacy rates and limited access to education. The project has initiated measures to improve education
standards and diversify livelihood options for community members through various initiatives, although
these efforts will take time to yield results. As the project's Theory of Change (refer to Section 2.1.17) is put
into action, an increase in managerial positions held by local community members is anticipated.

In the interim, the project is committed to exclusively employing residents of the Project Zone and local
contractors for the implementation of large-scale ARR activities within the Project Area. This has already
generated thousands of jobs, and once carbon financing becomes available, it will allow the project
partners to significantly expand activities, resulting in the employment of hundreds more local individuals.

It is evident from the above that community members are and will continue to be given equal opportunities
to fill all worker positions, including managerial roles, provided they meet the job requirements. The project
follows a structured worker selection process outlined in its Policy and Procedure document for various
positions. This document also outlines measures designed to ensure that community members, including
women and those from vulnerable or marginalized backgrounds, are given fair consideration for positions
for which they can be trained.

The Equal Employment Opportunity Policy and SOPs will be provided to the VVB for review.

2.3.19 Occupational Safety Assessment (VCS, 3.19; CCB, G3.12)

DBC-2 abides by all relevant Pakistani and Sindh Province worker’s rights laws and regulations as set out
in Pakistan Labour Policy 2010 and Sindh Government Policy (Sindh Labour Policy 2018). These policies
are divided into and address the following four aspects of labour issues in the country:

• Legal Framework
• Advocacy: Rights of Workers and Employers
• Skill Development and Employment
• Manpower Export
Providing proper training on safety procedures, evacuation, communication, equipment use, and shelter
making in order to ensure worker safety and mitigate potential risks inherent to certain field activities.
During the employee orientation sessions, workers are informed about the potential safety risks of their job
and of methods to mitigate the risks. A hard copy of the relevant laws is kept at the project office and any
worker is free to consult these at any time during working hours.

Given the nature of the project and its geographical surroundings, it is recognised that certain occupations
inherently present a risk to the health and safety of workers, in particular occupations that require spending
long periods walking in the difficult environment of mangrove forests.

These include, though not exclusively, workers doing plantation and nursery work, plot samplers and forest
protection staff, who are faced with challenging soil conditions as well as the risk of encountering various
forest offenders. The project has created a comprehensive health and safety plan that ensures that all
workers’ health and safety is protected, and that all workers are fully informed about workplace risks and
safe practices to mitigate those risks.

These include training in safe working practices, first aid training for some staff members as well as the
enforcement of requirements for safe handling of equipment and other materials.

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This health and safety plan additionally provides a comprehensive list of the measures that will be taken to
inform employees of their rights, to assign roles and responsibilities to supervisors and workers and provide
a safe workplace culture. This document will be revisited regularly and revised as needed to ensure that it
contains current information and includes all job categories and potential risks.

A copy of the plan will be provided to the VVB and will be kept at the project office and be readily available
for any consultation.

2.4 Management Capacity

2.4.1 Project Governance Structures (CCB, G4.1)

DBC-2 is developed and managed by the Government of Sindh, Caelum Environmental Solutions and
Pollination, who have entered into public-private partnership arrangements through a 60-year agreement,
renewable up to 100 years for the protection, conservation and ecosystem restoration of mangrove
wetlands in the Sindh Indus Delta area. By collaborating with the project-area communities and partner
organisations, Forest Department of Government of Sindh, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination
take full responsibility to manage, finance and implement project activities for the duration of the project.

The teams of the Sindh Forest Department, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination have
developed complementary roles for the smooth design and implementation of DBC-2. They coordinate
project implementation and operations with all relevant project stakeholders.

Based on their competencies and attributions, following are the specific roles and responsibilities of Sindh
Forest Department, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination:

Sindh Forest Department

▪ Communication and liaison with various tiers of Government, including Federal Government,
Provincial Government and Local Government

▪ Obtaining approvals and No Objection Certificates where applicable

▪ Liaison with sectoral departments such as Fisheries, Agriculture, Livestock, Environment, Local
Government, etc.

▪ Liaison with policy makers and political leaders

▪ Law enforcement and prosecution of offenders

▪ Relevant policies and plans implementation

▪ Design, planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of mangrove restoration and coastal
and marine biodiversity conservation activities

▪ Facilitation and liaison with local communities

▪ Obtaining of Free, Prior and Informed Consent of local communities

▪ Social organisation of local communities

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▪ Execute Fisheries Stewardship Agreements (FSAs) with local communities through Fisheries
Department

▪ Execute Biodiversity Conservation Agreements (BSAs) with local communities through Wildlife
Department

▪ Provision of satellite imageries and maps

▪ Facilitation in implementation of climate monitoring plan

▪ Facilitation in implementation of community monitoring plan

▪ Facilitation in implementation of biodiversity monitoring plan

▪ Any other function as per public-private partnership agreement between Government of Sindh and
Caelum Environmental Solutions

Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination

▪ Collect information for the preparation of PD

▪ Conduct baseline studies such as biodiversity study, socio-economic study, etc.

▪ Procure and engage experts

▪ Select relevant methodologies for preparation of PD

▪ Prepare PD

▪ Engage VVB for PD validation

▪ Arrange funds for implementation of various project interventions as per agreement executed with
the Government of Sindh

▪ Execute Mangrove Stewardship Agreements (MSAs) with local communities

▪ Implement the climate monitoring plan

▪ Implement the community monitoring plan

▪ Implement the biodiversity monitoring plan

▪ Prepare the monitoring report

▪ Engage verifiers for verifying the monitoring report

▪ Market the carbon credits

▪ Distribute the government share of carbon revenue to Government of Sindh

▪ Any other function required by the public-private partnership agreement

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Other involved entities in DBC-2 are performing their respective roles as per their agreed terms of
engagement. For example, university of Karachi and Pakistan Forest Institute is supporting the project in
research and development and soil and biomass carbon accounting. Centre of Excellence in Marine Biology
University of Karachi has supported the project in establishing marine biodiversity baseline. Experts from
Pollination have been involved in supporting project due diligence and carbon credits marketing, as well as
financial resources mobilisation.

2.4.2 Required Technical Skills (VCS, 3.19; CCB, G4.2)

There is a suite of key technical skills which are required to implement DBC-2. These include an
understanding of the science and art of ecosystem restoration, forest and biodiversity conservation,
geographic information systems and remote sensing, biomass sampling, coastal ecology and Greenhouse
Gas Accounting. Implementation of project activities also requires experience of implementing community
and livelihood development programmes, effective forest protection enforcement and monitoring and
overall project management. The Sindh Forest Department is the lead agency in coastal areas management
and biodiversity conservation. Its staff are trained in project management, remote sensing, biomass
sampling and coastal ecology. They have the human resources to support these areas of DBC-2.

Caelum Environmental Solutions is also a leader in forest and biodiversity protection as well as community
development. Its staff are highly trained in forest carbon projects design, development and management,
remote sensing, biomass and soil sampling and coastal ecology.

The three project partners (Sindh Forest Department, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination)
have the human resources and expertise to undertake and support all the technical, commercial, legal and
regulatory related activities needed under DBC-2 project. Therefore, all the proposed project activities will
be implemented primarily by the Government of Sindh Forest Department, Caelum Environmental Solutions
and Pollination in collaboration with the local communities and other partner organisations when deemed
appropriate and useful.

This core team is based in the project headquarters in Karachi and in field offices in Sujawal and Shah
Bandar and maintains a presence throughout the Project Zone. In addition to the above-mentioned in-
house experts, DBC-2 partners and collaborates with a wide-range of institutions both as implementing
partners and as sources of technical advice. These includes those partners listed in Section 2.1.7 and 2.1.8
but also includes a range of other collaborators, including other provincial government departments.

2.4.3 Management Team Experience (VCS, 3.19; CCB, G4.2)

Project Management Leads

Mr. Nadeem Raza Khan; Founder & CEO, Caelum Environmental Solutions

Mr. Nadeem Khan is the founder and CEO of Caelum Environmental Solutions and has been at the forefront
of the business since its inception. He has played a prominent role in changing the view in the country on
key green initiatives and the value of nature-based solutions, which has had a positive impact on both the
people and the environment. He was instrumental in developing the pioneering Public-Private Partnership
with the Government of Sindh for DBC-2 and has spearheaded the development of the project and
business. He possesses the required qualifications and experience for implementation of the key project
activities such as communications management, training and capacity building, advocacy work,

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administration and human resource management, financial management and over-all project
management.

Previous to this Mr. Khan had a distinguished career in the international media as a Managing Editor for
various leading business titles and national newspaper groups. Mr. Khan has held senior management
roles in media companies in the UK (News International), UAE (Arab Media Group) and Lebanon (Daily
Star/Wall Street Journal newspaper group). For the past 7 years he has used his skills and experience to
focus on environmental issues in Pakistan. Mr. Khan, with his fellow directors, also manages the
relationships between Caelum and its business partners and is the key point of contact for DBC-2.

Mr. Riaz Ahmed Wagan; Chief Conservator of Forests - Mangroves and Rangelands, Government of Sindh

Mr. Wagan, in his capacity as Chief Conservator of Forests, is the Chief Technical Advisor to the Government
of Sindh on mangroves and coastal areas. He is an expert and lead authority in the country on mangroves
restoration and conservation activities and has been the driving force behind the provincial government’s
wetland restoration efforts. He has 27 years of field experience, administration, human resources
management as well as financial management. Mr. Wagan has masterminded the vast restoration work in
the Indus Delta and has planned and led implementation activities in the field in partnership with forest-
dependent communities and other key stakeholders.

Mr. Wagan also heads communications management, advocacy work and training and capacity building
activities for his team at the Forest Department and key community figures in the Project Zone. He has
conducted coastal area conservation and development activities with all project stakeholders as well as
various international organisations like IUCN-International Union for Conservation of Nature, and WWF-
World Wide Fund for Nature. He has an MSC in Forestry from Pakistan as well as a Master’s in
Environmental Management from the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

Mr. Martijn Wilder; Founder & CEO, Pollination

Mr. Martijn Wilder is recognised as a global leader in climate law and investment and has advised
governments and companies on innovative climate finance investments including the World’s First REDD+
Green Bond.

Martijn was head of Baker McKenzie’s global climate law and finance practice for 20 years and played a
key role with Australia’s clean energy finance institutions. He is currently Chair of the Australian
Government’s National Reconstruction Fund Corporation (NRFC), and Chair of the Governing Board of the
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) based in Vienna. He is also an Adjunct
Professor of International Climate Change Law at Australian National University, a Senior Advisor to
Serendipity Capital, and a Member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.

Martijn was a Cambridge Commonwealth Trust Scholar and was awarded an Australian Honour (AM) for his
contribution to climate change law and the environment.

Phil Cohn, Managing Director, Pollination

Phil Cohn has over 17 years’ experience in carbon markets and renewable energy. At Pollination he leads
the firm’s investments in carbon and nature projects. He combines technical knowledge with strong
commercial and strategy skills to deliver complex projects in environmental and energy markets. He has
diverse experience building start-ups and early-stage ventures, project development, transactions and
advising at senior levels across a variety of public and private sector organizations.

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Phil is a member of the VCS Program Advisory Group.

Prior to joining Pollination, Phil was Chief Operating Officer at a clean energy start-up and was formerly an
Investment Director at the Australian Renewable Energy Agency where he led the Agency’s distributed
energy, demand response and grid integration investment priorities.

Prior to this Phil founded RAMP Carbon which provided project development, trading and advisory
services to blue chip clients in the Australian and European carbon markets. In this role Phil managed the
development of numerous large scale carbon programs registered under the CDM, VCS and Gold
Standard, as well as supporting the development of methodologies and projects under the Australian
Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund scheme.
John Ambler, Director, Pollination

Mr. Ambler is a project developer with extensive experience designing, implementing, financing, and
advising nature-based solutions projects. In his capacity as a director at Pollination, he supports projects
through the full life-cycle of development. He has also worked on carbon market development and NBS
strategy initiatives in frontier markets.

Previous to Pollination Mr. Ambler developed ARR projects, leading the validation and verification of
multiple projects under the VCS and CCB standards. He was also responsible for supporting a portfolio of
10+ active projects engaging over 100,000 participants. He is a winner of Kellogg-Morgan Stanley
Sustainable Investing Challenge.

Mr. Alamgir Khan Gandapur; Caelum Environmental Solutions, Project Management

Mr. Gandapur is a forester with over 40 years of experience. He has been working on climate change,
biodiversity conservation and community development initiatives throughout his 35-year-long career with
government. During this period, Mr. Gandapur has helped shape the forestry sector in Pakistan. He now
brings his specialism and expertise in large-scale project management to the Indus Delta restoration
project, which he is spearheading from the company’s base in Karachi. He has held multiple senior
positions.

He was the focal person of Climate Change and REDD+ Issues for Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
from 2010 until his retirement from government service in 2013. Mr. Gandapur has a passion for
sustainable development, forests and biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation issues. He has been
developing and managing projects and programmes related to these issues besides also teaching them at
the graduate and post-graduate levels. He developed and oversaw the institutional reforms in the forestry
sector in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As part of this process, he developed the Provincial Forest Policy, Provincial
Forest Law/Ordinance, Forest Development Fund (FDF), Planning Reforms Proposals and proposals for the
establishment of bodies for stakeholder participation in the forestry sector. He has also worked as a
consultant for the REDD+ project of Government of Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan where he drafted the Gilgit-
Baltistan Forest Act 2019, Gilgit Baltistan Wildlife Act, 2020, Gilgit Baltistan Non-Timber Forest Product
Rules, 2016, Gilgit Baltistan Forest Management Code, as well as the Gilgit-Baltistan Sustainable
Landscape Initiative (GB-SLI) and preparation of Forest and Landscape Management Plans for various
districts in Gilgit Baltistan. He has post graduate degrees in forestry, economics, development, agriculture
and environmental and resource economics. He also holds post-graduate diplomas in human resource
management, international law of Human Rights and remote sensing and geographic Information systems,
and Specialized Certificate in Terrestrial Carbon Accounting from University of California, San Diego, CA,
USA.

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Previous posts he has held include:

• Chief Conservator of Forests, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (2012 – 2013).

• Project Director Development of forestry sector resources for carbon sequestration in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (2010 – 2011).
• Conservator of Forests, Malakand Forest Circle (2008 – 2009)
• Project Manager, Environmental Fiscal Reforms (EFR) project, IUCN-The World Conservation Union
(2007). (Swiss-assisted project)
• Director Community Development, Extension and Gender Development (2006). Deputy Director
Research and Development (2005)
• Team Leader Institutional Reforms Project (1998 – 2003). (Swiss and Dutch-assisted project)
• Project Director Sarhad Provincial Conservation Strategy (SPCS), IUCN-The World Conservation
Union (1997). (Swiss-assisted project)
• Project Director Upland Rehabilitation project. (1996) (EU-assisted project)
• Chief Environment, Tourism, Archaeology, Sports, Culture, Museums and Libraries, Planning and
Development Department, KP Government (1995).
• Chief Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fisheries and Wildlife, Planning and Development
Department, KP Government. (1993 – 1994).
• Divisional Forest Officer, Social Forestry (1992). (Dutch-assisted project)
• Deputy Director Planning, Forestry, Fisheries and Wildlife Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(1991).
• Divisional Forest Officer Afforestation, Nurseries and Research (1979). (World Bank-assisted
project)
• Team Leader of numerous Fact Finding, Project Formulation, and Monitoring and Evaluation
Missions for various donors (FAO, UNDP, Dutch, Swiss).
Mr. Arif Ali Khokar; Conservator of Forests, Government of Sindh

Mr. Khokar is the expert on mangroves and coastal areas development. He has also been associated with
mangroves protection, conservation and development as well as community development for more than
20 years and has used his successful experiences in the design of project interventions. He maintains close
interactions with the various project stakeholders throughout the Project Zone. He provides his technical
expertise as mangrove resource, biodiversity conservation and community development expert.

Mr. Shehzad Gill; Forest Officer - Coastal Areas, Thatta and Karachi District

Mr. Shehzad Gill is the lead person in Coastal Areas in Thatta and Karachi Districts. His specialism is in
community development and biodiversity conservation activities in the Project Area with all stakeholders.
He provides his expertise and regular support to the project in these matters and is a direct link with
community members in the Project Zone.

In addition to these managers and specialists, there is a strong team of consultants from the Pakistan
Forest Institute and other development and research organisations, like the Institute of Environmental
Studies, University of Karachi, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, Sindh
Agriculture University, University of Sindh, and National Institute of Oceanography, to support the project
team with a wealth of community development, land management, carbon project experience and GIS and
remote sensing expertise.

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2.4.4 Project Management Partnerships and Team Development (VCS, 3.19; CCB, G4.2)

All relevant management experience is present in DBC-2, as detailed in Sections 2.4.1 and 2.4.2.

2.4.5 Financial Health of Implementing Organization(s) (CCB, G4.3)

The project partners are the Government of Sindh, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination. Each
of these partners have at their disposal the needed financial resources for initial project implementation
and carbon asset development. Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination have invested the
required funds and resources from the private sector to fulfil its contractual obligation to the project.

The Provincial Forest Department, Government of Sindh receives an annual budget support from the
government for implementation of its development portfolio. The proponents have created a detailed
financial model for the development and financial management of DBC-2. Predicted credit sales and an
accurate estimated annual budget demonstrate sufficient cash flow from predicted contracted sales to
sustain the project through to the end of the crediting period. This document is available to the VVB.

2.4.6 Avoidance of Corruption and Other Unethical Behavior (VCS, 3.19; CCB, G4.3)

The project has developed and is implementing an Anti-bribery and Corruption Policy and SOPs which
provide assurance that the project proponent, partners, and any other entities involved in the project design
and implementation are not involved in, or complicit in, any form of corruption such as bribery,
embezzlement, fraud, favouritism, cronyism, nepotism, extortion, and collusion.

This policy and SOPs are being implemented as a core element of the policies and procedures for the
governance of the all entities involved in the development of the project.

Thus, necessary steps have been taken to avoid bribery, corruption and other unethical behaviour. These
steps include: adoption of the necessary policies and procedures, training resources for employees and
staff, the opening and management of a joint bank account for project funds management, development
of transparent financial transactions mechanisms, instituting internal and external monitoring of physical
and financial aspects of the project, rigorous funds auditing arrangements and promotion of a culture of
transparency and ethical behaviour. These internal and external control mechanisms and their relevant
documents will be shared with the VVB.

2.4.7 Commercially Sensitive Information (VCS, 3.5.2 – 3.5.4; CCB Rules, 3.5.13 – 3.5.14)

There is some project information which is required by the VCS and/or CCB standards but is of confidential
or sensitive in nature and therefore cannot be released publicly by the Government of Sindh.

Commercially sensitive information that the Government of Sindh is required by law to keep confidential
(section 10. (1) of Sindh Act No.XV of 2017 relating to Right to Information) has been excluded from the
public version of the PD. It will be shared with the VVB where it is essential. This information as per
requirements of VCS and/or CCB will be supplied freely to the VVB as appendices to this document. Some
of this information, however, will not be included in the public version.

All information related to the determination of the baseline scenario, demonstration of additionality, and
estimation and monitoring of GHG emission reductions and removals (including operational and capital

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expenditures) are not considered to be commercially sensitive and therefore have been provided in the
public versions of the project documents.

Commercially sensitive financial information that may be requested by the VVB will be shared with the VVB
only and not released publicly.

2.5 Legal Status and Property Rights

2.5.1 National and Local Laws (VCS, 3.1, 3.6. 3.7, 3.14, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G5.6)

The project is designed and implemented in full compliance with the national laws and policies of
Government of Pakistan and provincial laws and policies of the Sindh Province. This includes laws, rules,
regulations and policies governing aspects of forest conservation and management related initiatives of
the national and provincial level governments. Relevant policies, laws and regulations on land use, forestry
and climate include:

• Pakistan National Forest Policy 2017

• Sindh Provincial Forest Policy 2020
• Pakistan Environment Policy 2005
• Sindh Provincial Environment Policy 2018 (draft)
• Pakistan National Climate Change Policy 2020
• Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy 2014
• Pakistan Forest Act 1927 in its application to Sindh Province
• Sindh Grazing Rules 1936
• Sindh Provincial Forest Act, 2024 (draft)
• Sindh Wildlife Act, 2020
• Sindh Environmental Protection Act 2014
• Pakistan Climate Change Act 2017

2.5.2 Relevant Laws and Regulations Related to Worker’s Rights (VCS, 3.18.2; CCB, G3.11)

The Constitution of Pakistan contains a range of provisions with regards to labour rights. These are found
in Part II: Fundamental Rights and Principles of Policy. Specific Articles of the Constitution dealing with
labour rights include the following:

• Article 11 of the Constitution prohibits all forms of slavery, forced labour and child labour.
• Article 17 provides for a fundamental right to exercise the freedom of association and the right to
form unions.
• Article 18 proscribes the right of its citizens to enter upon any lawful profession or occupation and
to conduct any lawful trade or business.
• Article 25 lays down the right to equality before the law and prohibition of discrimination on the
grounds of sex alone.
• Article 37(e) makes provision for securing just and humane conditions of work, ensuring that
children and women are not employed in vocations unsuited to their age or sex, and for maternity
benefits for women in employment.
All Constitutional Provisions with regard to Fundamental Rights and Principles of Policy shall be followed in
their letter and spirit. Pakistan also has a suite of laws and regulations related to workers’ rights. Labour

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laws of the country fall into the following core legal categories: Laws relating to industrial relations; Laws
relating to employment and service conditions; Laws relating to occupational safety and health; Laws
relating to human resource development; Laws relating to labour welfare and social security. Key elements
of these labour laws will be embodied in the employment contracts of workers.

Workers will be informed about their rights at the point of their employment during the employee
orientation. Applicable Labour Policies in the country include Government of Pakistan Labour Policy 2010
and Sindh Government Labour Policy 2018. These Labour Policies are also custodians of labour rights. At
the national level there is the full-fledged Ministry of Labour, Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis dealing
with labour issues in the country.

At the provincial level, Sindh Province also has a Labour Department. These Ministries and Labour
Department ensure implementation of the country and province’s labour laws, regulations and policies and
protect labour rights. Pakistan joined the ILO (International Labour Organisation) in 1947. The country has
ratified 34 ILO Conventions. Of these, 33 are already in force in the country. The project partners being a
governmental organisation and a socially responsible private sector company will ensure that any relevant
international conventions or government laws and regulations (provincial and national) are fully followed.

2.5.3 Human Rights (VCS, 3.19)

The project recognises, respects, and promotes human rights including through:

• Ensuring no discrimination or sexual harassment occurs (Section 2.3.14)

• Accords with international standard and universal instruments relating to human rights in
project design and implementation

• Provision of equal opportunities in the context of gender for employment and participation in
consultation and project activities, and equal pay for equal work (Sections 2.1.17, 2.1.18,
2.3.13, and 2.3.14)

• Prohibition of the use of forced labor, child labor, or victims of human trafficking in project
design and implementation, and alignment with ILO conventions on workers’ rights (Section
2.5.2)

• Protection of the rights of IPs, LCs, and customary rights holders and preservation and
protection of cultural heritage (Sections 2.5.4, 4.1.1, 4.1.3)

2.5.4 Indigenous Peoples and Cultural Heritage (VCS, 3.18, 3.19)

The preservation of indigenous and cultural heritage is important to the project’s success. The project has
conducted analysis of communities in the region including their history, cultural context, and key elements
of cultural heritage (Section 4.1.1). The project seeks to positively impact traditional livelihoods such as
fishing and agriculture through the project activities (Section 2.1.17). Where community-based resource
management may impact certain practices, such as camel grazing, this is done in consultation with local
communities and respecting both their legal and customary rights and traditions. The project adopts an
HCV approach to cultural heritage (Section 4.1.3).

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2.5.5 Statutory and Customary Property Rights (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G5.1)

Statutory and Customary Rights in the Project Zone are covered by the Constitution of Pakistan and
applicable Land Laws and Forest Law. The Constitution of Pakistan allows private ownership of land and
other property. Articles 23, 24, 25, 172 and 173 of the constitution deal with private property rights. These
are described below.

Article 23 declares that: Every citizen shall have the right to acquire, hold and dispose of property in any
part of Pakistan, subject to the Constitution and any reasonable restrictions imposed by law in the public
interest.

Article 24 makes the following provision with respect to the acquisition of the private property: 'No property
shall be compulsorily acquired or taken possession of save for a public purpose and save by the authority
of law which provides for compensation therefore and either fixes the amount of compensation or specifies
the principles on and the manner in which compensation is to be determined and given'.

Article 25 of Constitution: Ensures the equality of citizens in terms of property rights, both male and female,
but the state can take affirmative action for women.

Article 172 states that: ‘Any property, which has no rightful owner shall, if located in a province, vest in the
government of that province and in every other case, in the Federal Government’.

Article 173, the Federal Government and the Provincial Governments can grant, sell, dispose or mortgage
any property that vests in them. These governments can purchase or acquire property. All properties
acquired for the purposes of the federation or of a province shall vest in the Federal Government or the
concerned Provincial Government. Women are entitled to the fundamental right to own, hold and transfer
property under the laws of Pakistan.

Provisions of Laws regarding Land Ownership

Land ownership or proprietorship in Pakistan (including Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan) falls
into one of the three following categories (Soofi, 2017)29: (1) State owned land, (2) Privately owned land,
or (3) Village common land.

1) State Owned Land: Lands owned by government are called State owned or “Crown” land (Sarkaari
zameen). It means that their ownership or legal entitlement vests in the government. Government means
the federal or provincial or local government. Depending on how the State land is used or managed, State
land may fall into one of the following categories (UNHABITAT, 2011)30:

State land assigned to individuals for various uses including cultivation, storage etc. on a temporary
basis. This type of land can normally be resumed by the state.
State land granted to individuals under various schemes like cattle breeding, horse studs etc. In this
category, the ownership belongs to the state and it is possessed by the citizens on a temporary basis

29
Soofi, A.B. 2017. Report on the legal, Institutional and policy framework for REDD+ In Pakistan.
30
UN-Habitat, “A Guide on Land and Property Rights in Pakistan,” (Islamabad, Pakistan, December
2011).

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against a nominal annual rent to be paid by user to the state.

State Land is cultivated directly under the State. Under this arrangement, the land is cultivated by
tenants and agreed rent is paid either in cash or in kind to the state.
State land that is temporarily allotted on some payment schedule to the citizens under various colony
schemes so that the citizens could make these lands cultivatable. After these are made usable or
cultivatable, then the ownership may be transferred in the name of that citizen.
State lands that are under the control of some government department, such as Forest Department,
Board of Revenue, etc. Lands under the Forest Department are further classified as Reserve Forests,
Protected Forests and Unclassed Forests.
State lands that are barren and are not under cultivation or cannot be made cultivatable due to its
inhospitable terrain or unsuitable soil. These lands at times are also called Wastelands.
2) Privately Owned Land: Privately owned lands are the exclusive property of the private individual or entity.
Private owners have full rights to use, manage, sell, gift, exchange or dispose of their private land in any
manner they wish subject to some legal limitations. For instance, the law of pre-emption imposes certain
restrictions on the sale of rural land to people who are residents of other areas. The Constitution and laws
give equal rights of ownership, tenancy, and sale and purchase of land to women. Private owned land is
subject to automatic inheritance under the Muslim personal law and the property rights devolve after the
death of a legal owner on his/her legal heirs as per pre-determined shares under the implementation of a
will, if any. The right to give away land under a will is also restricted under the Muslim personal law.

3) Village Common Land: Village Common Land or Community Land is commonly called ‘Shamilat’ or
‘Shamilat Deh’. It is jointly owned and possessed by the landowners of that village and is meant to be used
for common purposes and uses of the village community. These common uses, among others, include
grazing grounds, firewood collection, graveyards, community buildings, mosques, schools, dispensaries,
playgrounds, village ponds, village roads, passages for the movement of cattle, etc. (UN-HABITAT, 2012).
Shamilat land is usually a grant given by the State, out of State land, to the owners of the village to be used
for their common purposes and is usually granted at the time of settlement.

All persons recorded as owners of land in a village are also joint owners of Shamilat of the village, their
shares being proportionate to the size of their holding. When they sell their land, the share of Shamilat also
goes to the new buyer of the land accordingly. Landowners cannot sell their share of Shamilat without
selling a part or the whole of their landholding. Similarly, co-owners of land cannot move to encroach upon
more Shamilat land than is already allotted to them and encroachers can be ejected by moving an
application before the revenue authorities. There is another category of Shamilat in certain areas in
Pakistan where no settlement has taken place. Under this category, large tracts of lands are jointly owned
by many people and their shares are expressed in terms of fractions of the total area in one Khasra Number,
a particular number allotted to that piece of land by the revenue authorities.

Laws Regulating Property Rights Laws Regulating Property Rights

There are numerous laws that regulate the ownership, transfer, acquisition, taxation, registration, tenancy
etc. of immovable property. Following legislations are the important ones (Soofi, 2017):

• The Transfer of Property Act, 1882

• The Government Tenants Act, 1893
• The Land Acquisition Act, 1894

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• The Registration Act, 1908

• The Sindh Tenancy Act, 1950
• The Land Record Manual
• The Land Administration Manual
• The Settlement Manual
Legal Categories of Forest Lands

There are three legal categories of state-owned forest lands: Reserve Forests, Protected Forest, and
Unclassed. Mangrove forest in the Project Area have been declared as Protected Forests and their
ownership vests in the state. Private individuals have no legal rights to mangroves or any of their produce
unless specifically permitted by the government. There are also no customary laws prevailing in the Project
Area that in any way hinder the implementation of project activities. The project notes that this protected
status has not been enforced historically, leading to the deforestation and degradation described in the
without-project scenario (see Section 2.2.1)

Based on the above analysis of statutory and customary rights prevailing in the Project Area, there are no
legal lacuna to the implementation of project activities.

2.5.6 Recognition of Property Rights (VCS, 3.7, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G5.1)

Land in the Project Area is surveyed, demarcated and has been titled and all property and property rights
clearly recognised and delineated. The Forest Department and the project worked with communities to
clarify the Project Area boundaries and rights of various stakeholders to land, territories and resources. The
rights of the stakeholders are defined and properly documented and based on these recognised and
enforceable under the law. The project has established its area boundaries both digitally and physically on
the ground. Its ownership of and rights to the resources found therein are clearly recognised and so are the
recognition of the rights of local people.

2.5.7 Free, Prior and Informed Consent (VCS, 3.18; CCB, G5.2)

Description of process Sections 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.3.5, 2.3.10 and 2.3.15 outline the
for obtaining consent comprehensive procedure of FPIC activities which ensures that all
stakeholders and communities are consulted and participate in
project design.

Outcome of FPIC The project does not encroach uninvited on private property,
process community property or government property. Tenure of the Project
Area is outlined in Section 2.5.9.

2.5.8 Benefit Sharing Mechanisms (VCS, 3.18, 3.19;)

The project does not take place on lands that are owned or managed by community groups (the Project
Area is government land). However, Indus Delta communities are some of the poorest and most
marginalised in Pakistan. The Project’s key focus is to drive long-term, sustainable development that is
underpinned by the regeneration of natural capital and to provide enhanced economic opportunities
through project activities. Key to the Project’s enduring success is its facilitation of deep engagement with

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local community members, underpinned by the intentional co-design of benefit sharing approaches to
ensure that monetary and non-monetary benefits flow to and are shared with intended recipients, in
particular, impoverished local community members, women and other marginalized and / vulnerable
groups and households in a transparent, equitable, effective and efficient manner.

DBC-2’s fundamental approach to benefit sharing is that an ongoing and dynamic process aimed at
maximising positive project impact is required to ensure and protect project success. The Project believes
that encouraging broad representation, participation and social inclusion is key in the design, management
and optimisation of benefit sharing, as it will contribute to a greater sense of ownership and a resulting
mechanism that is based on trust and considered legitimate.31

The Project employs a multi-faceted benefit sharing methodology as follows:

1. Participation and inclusive decision-making – the DBC-2 benefit sharing programme is designed
together with local communities to ensure that benefits reach intended groups. As described in
section 2.3.7, the Project has engaged in broad and extensive stakeholder engagement,
supplemented by the fact that the Sindh Forest Department has been interacting and maintaining
a regular dialogue with stakeholders with communities for more than 30 years. This has resulted
in a well-informed and comprehensive understanding of all community groups, dynamics and
power relations in the Project Zone, enabled FPIC for project activities to be secured and in the
context of benefit sharing, has facilitated the participatory identification of benefits and
interventions that are most meaningful, relevant and appropriate to meet the needs of local
community members.

To ensure broad social inclusion, village development committees and women organisations have
been formed to determine the fair distribution of benefits generated by the Project. These village-
level organisations are socially inclusive and include representation and participation from
marginal and vulnerable groups that are traditionally excluded from decision-making. In this
manner, all relevant stakeholders are able to contribute to and advocate for benefits that are most
aligned with community priorities.
•
2. Equity – through its stakeholder identification processes (see section 2.1.8) the Project has a well-
developed understanding of the depth and breadth of stakeholders in the Project Zone, including
diversity across educational level, gender, ethnicity, language, and vulnerable group status.
Recognition of this diversity and differentiation amongst different beneficiary groups, and ensuring
they are recognised, represented and able to participate in decision-making is critical in ensuring
that benefit distribution mechanisms do not exacerbate existing inequities and that the share of
incentives distributed amongst stakeholders is at all times consistent with the community-led
standards of fairness and equality.
•
3. Effectiveness and adaptability – DBC-2 will ensure that its benefit sharing programme is robust
and targeted, with all monetary and non-monetary benefits having a clear rationale and purpose
based on stakeholder engagement and feedback to ensure that stated community needs are met
most effectively. The Project also recognises that benefit sharing strategies and programs will

31
Bertzky, M., O. Canosa, A. Koch, and P. Llopis. 2021. Assessment Report: Comparative Analysis of Benefit-Sharing Mechanisms
in REDD+ Programs. WWF: https://bit.ly/3s3T0p8

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involve trade-offs and will need to evolve over the life of the project in order to respond to changing
circumstances and ongoing feedback from stakeholders. The Project’s commitment to continued
monitoring, transparent and equitable consultation and adaptive management (see section 2.3.8)
will help ensure that benefit sharing arrangements will continue to meet the needs of beneficiaries
over time.

4. Efficiency – it is critical that benefits and resources generated by the Project are allocated and
utilised in a manner that maximises positive impacts and outcomes for local communities and
other stakeholders. Efficiency requires adaptive management practices that allow for continuous
learning, evaluation, and improvement of benefit sharing strategies over time. This will ensure
optimal resource allocation to benefit sharing activities based on their expected impact and cost-
effectiveness. This will necessarily involve prioritising investments in activities that have the
greatest potential for positive and sustainable outcomes, particularly community socio-economic
development projects, capacity-building initiatives and sustainable livelihood programs that
contribute to the long-term well-being and resilience of communities and ecosystems.
•
5. Diversity of value – DBC-2 recognises that it is critical to support a wide range of community
priorities where both monetary and non-monetary benefits and diverse conceptualisations of value
are relevant, including economic, socio-cultural, spiritual, religious, historical and environmental
value. The Project recognises that not every group will value each benefit generated by the Project
in the same manner and is committed to a fair, inclusive and transparent stakeholder engagement
to ensure that competing priorities are balanced and managed.
•
6. Accountability and Transparency – equity is closely linked to accountability and transparency in
benefit sharing. The Project is committed to ensuring that stakeholders have access to clear and
relevant information about the Project's benefits, distribution mechanisms and decision-making
processes. Additionally, mechanisms for transparent reporting of the Project’s benefit sharing
procedures and outcomes will be implemented to ensure that benefit sharing commitments are
honoured and upheld throughout the life of the Project. The Project also has put in place a robust
feedback and grievance redress mechanism (see section 2.3.12) which will be able to mediate
issues and decisions related to benefit sharing.
DBC-2’s benefit sharing approach will be implemented through four key mutually reinforcing pillars:

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The project’s benefit-sharing approach includes both direct payments made to communities

employed in restoration or conservation activities, as well as indirect payments in community

development and livelihoods improvements.

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2.5.9 Property Rights Protection (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G5.3)

The project maps and boundary demarcation also allow the Project Area communities to understand their
spatial positions in relation to the Project Area, and to be able to plan their future land use within their
village boundaries without disputing other village territories. The project does not require involuntary
removal or relocation of communities or any activities important for their livelihood and culture.

2.5.10 Illegal Activity Identification (VCS, 3.19; CCB, G5.4)

All the mangrove forests in the Project Area are Protected Forests under section 29 of the Forest Act
1927 and the trees found in these forests as reserved under section 30 of the same Act. As per section
33 of the Forest Act, a person is not allowed to do the following acts in Protected Forests:

(a) fell, girdle, lop, taps or burn a tree reserved under section 30, or strips off the bark or leaves
from, or otherwise damages, the tree

(b) contrary to any prohibition under section 30, quarries any stone, or burns any lime or
charcoal, or collects, subjects to any manufacturing process, or removes any forest produce

(c) contrary to any prohibition under section 30, breaks up or clears for cultivation or any other
purpose any land of the forest

(d) sets or kindles fire without taking reasonable precautions to prevent its spreading to any tree
reserved under section 30, whether standing, fallen or felled, or to any closed portion of the
forest

(e) leaves any fire burning in the vicinity of any reserved tree or closed portion of the forest

(f) fells any tree or drags any timber and damages any reserved tree

(g) permits livestock to damage any reserved tree

(h) infringes any rule made under section 32

A person doing any of the above activities which have been declared illegal as per law, is punishable in
accordance with the provisions of section 33 of the Forest Act.

Thus, under the provision of the Forest law, the Project Area mangroves forests and plantation should be
protected from resource extraction or conversion to other land uses. These activities, however, do
occasionally occur within these Protected Forests.

To curb these illegal activities and to control deforestation and forest degradation in the area, DBC-2
activities include stricter law enforcement through greater surveillance and vigilance and more effective
patrolling by Forest Department staff. It has also entered into Mangrove Stewardship Agreements and
strengthened community organisations. These measures will lead to increased protection in the Project
Area and enforcement of the boundary against illegal incursions. The strengthening of these community
organisations will give empower local communities and give them the ability to protect mangrove forests
and newly planted areas. Accordingly, effective law enforcement and income diversification will shift the
local economy over time toward legal and sustainable coastal and land resources use.

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2.5.11 Ongoing Disputes (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, G5.5)

The Project Area is free of land grabbing, territorial displacement, or deprivation from access to resources.
There have been only a few minor disputes amongst the communities of various villages or within
communities of a village over land, territory or resources in the Project Zone during the last 20 years. Most
of their disputes have been pertaining to migrant herders bringing camels for grazing into the delta area
during the flood season.

All such disputes are resolved through local mediation measures by the communities themselves and there
is no resort to government or other official channels for dispute resolution. Also, the likelihood of disputes
on land, territories and resources to occur in the future is low. Therefore, there is no potential for the project
to prejudice any decision or outcome of a dispute through its activities. Using a precautionary approach,
the project has a protocol for disputes resolution at the community level.

2.5.12 Approvals (CCB, G5.7)

The Sindh Forest and Wildlife Department, Government of Sindh along with Caelum Environmental
Solutions and Pollination are the project partners. The Project Area is comprised completely of Protected
Forests the ownership of which vests in the state. The Government of Sindh through an agreement has
given its approval for implementation of this project. As per agreement between Government of Sindh
Forest Department, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination, the project partners have obtained
the FPIC of the local communities. Therefore, approvals for the project both at the state level as well as
community level are present.

2.5.13 Double Counting and Participation under Other GHG Programs (VCS, 3.23; CCB G5.9)

2.5.13.1 No Double Issuance

Is the project receiving or seeking credit for reductions and removals from a project activity
under another GHG program, or any other form of community, social, or biodiversity unit or
credit?

☐ Yes ☒ No

2.5.13.2 Registration in Other GHG Programs

Is the project registered or seeking registration under any other GHG programs?

☐ Yes ☒ No

2.5.13.3 Projects Rejected by Other GHG Programs

Has the project been rejected by any other GHG programs?

☐ Yes ☒ No

2.5.14 Double Claiming, Other Forms of Credit, and Scope 3 Emissions (VCS, 3.24)

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2.5.14.1 No Double Claiming with Emissions Trading Programs or Binding Emission Limits

Are project reductions and removals or project activities also included in an emissions trading
program or binding emission limit? See the VCS Program Definitions for definitions of
emissions trading program and binding emission limit.

☐ Yes ☒ No

2.5.14.2 No Double Claiming with Other Forms of Environmental Credit

Has the project activity sought, received, or is planning to receive credit from another GHG-related
environmental credit system? See the VCS Program Definitions for definition of GHG-related
environmental credit system.

☐ Yes ☒ No

Besides VCS validation, DBC-2 will also be validated under the Climate, Community, and
Biodiversity (CCB) standards (Third Edition, Gold Level). The project has neither sought nor
received any other form of GHG-related environmental credit. However, it may seek validation
under the W+ Standard, SD VISta Standard and Nature Framework.

2.5.14.3 Supply Chain (Scope 3) Emissions

Do the project activities affect the emissions footprint of any product(s) (goods or services) that
are part of a supply chain?

☐ Yes ☒ No

2.6 Additional Information Relevant to the Project

2.6.1 Leakage Management (VCS, 3.11, 3.15)

Not applicable, as described in Section 3.2.3

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3 Climate
3.1 Application of Methodology

3.1.1 Title and Reference of Methodology (VCS, 3.1)

Table 13: Methodology and Modules

Type Reference ID (if Title Version

(methodology, applicable)
tool, module)

Methodology VM0033 Methodology for Tidal Wetland 2.1

and Seagrass Restoration

Module VMD0019 Methods to Project Future 1.0

Conditions

Module VMD0052 Demonstration of Additionality 1.0

of Tidal Wetland Restoration
and Conservation Project
Activities

Tool CDM AR Tool 1 Tool for testing significance of 1.0

GHG emissions in A/R CDM
project activities

Tool CDM AR Tool 2 Combined tool to identify the 1.0

baseline scenario and
demonstrate additionality for
A/R CDM project activities

Tool CDM AR Tool 3 Calculation of the number of 2.1

sample plots for measurements
within A/R CDM project
activities

Tool CDM AR Tool 5 Estimation of GHG emissions 1.0

related to fossil fuel
combustion in A/R CDM project
activities

Tool CDM AR Tool 14 Estimation of carbon stocks 4.2

and change in carbon stocks of
trees and shrubs in A/R CDM
project activities

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3.1.2 Applicability of Methodology (VCS, 3.1)

VM0033 applies to tidal wetland restoration project activities. The project is located in the Indus Delta, as
indicated in Section 2.1.16. The project boundary includes deforested mangrove habitats, as well as future
wetlands as a result of sea level rise.

The project meets all relevant applicability conditions for the employed methodology and modules. The
following have no internal applicability conditions:

• VMD0019 Methods to Project Future Conditions

• CDM AR Tool 3 Calculation of the number of sample plots for measurements within A/R CDM
project activities v2.1
• CDM AR Tool 5 Estimation of GHG emissions related to fossil fuel combustion in A/R CDM project
activities v1
• CDM AR Tool 14 Estimation of carbon stocks and change in carbon stocks of trees and shrubs in
A/R CDM project activities v4.2
Table 14: Applicability of Methodology and Modules

Reference ID/Title Applicability condition Justification of conformance

VM0033 Project activities which The project is a tidal wetland restoration

restore tidal wetlands through afforestation and reforestation
(including seagrass of mangrove trees. Mangroves inhabit
meadows, per this intertidal zone.
methodology’s definition of
tidal wetland) are eligible

VM0033 2) Project activities may The project meets the description of e)

include any of the following, (Re-) introducing native plant
or combinations of the communities, because the project is an
following: afforestation and reforestation project
of native mangrove trees. The project
a) Creating, restoring and/or also meets the description of f)
managing hydrological Improving management practices,
conditions (e.g., removing through the mechanism and
tidal barriers, improving introduction of Mangrove Stewardship
hydrological connectivity, Agreements, which, amongst other
restoring tidal flow to things, addresses the problem of
wetlands or lowering water grazing from the Project Area.
levels on impounded
wetlands)

b) Altering sediment supply

(e.g., beneficial use of
dredge material or diverting
river sediments to sediment-

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starved areas)

c) Changing salinity
characteristics (e.g.,
restoring tidal flow to tidally-
restricted areas)

d) Improving water quality

(e.g., reducing nutrient loads
leading to improved water
clarity to expand seagrass
meadows, recovering tidal
and other hydrologic
flushing and exchange, or
reducing nutrient residence
time)

e) (Re-)introducing native
plant communities (e.g.,
reseeding or replanting)

f) Improving management
practice(s) (e.g., removing
invasive species, reduced
grazing)

VM0033 3) Prior to the project start The project meets condition 3a I and II.
date, the Project Area: The project area consists of deforested
and degraded mangrove regions that
a) Is free of any land use have been abandoned for two or more
that could be displaced years prior to the project start date in
outside the Project Area, as 2023. The extent of these areas has
demonstrated by at least remained unchanged over the past two
one of the following, where years, with no conversion to other land
relevant: uses, such as mangrove forest through
afforestation, reforestation, and
i. The Project Area has been
revegetation (ARR), agriculture, or
abandoned for two or more
settlements/infrastructure.
years prior to the project
start date Due to the high salinity of the soil, the
area is unsuitable for productive
ii. Use of the Project Area for agricultural activities. It lacks
commercial purposes (i.e., marketable timber or other coastal
trade) is not profitable as a resources that could be commercially
result of salinity intrusion, harvested. Given its overall land
market forces or other capability classification, utilizing the
factors. In addition, timber project area for commercial purposes is

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harvesting in the baseline unprofitable. Adjacent agricultural lands

scenario within the Project are far more suitable for productive
Area does not occur activities than these deforested and
abandoned mangrove areas.
iii. Degradation of additional Additionally, the area is inaccessible for
wetlands for new cost-effective commercial transportation
agricultural sites within the of inputs and goods, as it cannot be
country will not occur or is reached by road and only boat
prohibited by enforced law transportation of goods is possible. This
further diminishes its viability for any
OR
commercial activity.
b) Is under a land use that
could be displaced outside
the Project Area), although
in such case baseline
emissions from this land use
must not be accounted for,
and where degradation of
additional wetlands for new
agricultural/aquacultural
sites within the country will
not occur or is prohibited by
enforced law

OR

c) Is under a land use that

will continue at a similar
level of service or production
during the project crediting
period (e.g., reed or hay
harvesting, collection of
fuelwood, subsistence
harvesting)

VM0033 4) Live tree vegetation may No justification required

be present in the Project
Area, and may be subject to
carbon stock changes (e.g.,
due to harvesting) in both
the baseline and project
scenarios

VM0033 5) The prescribed burning of Not relevant, because prescribed

herbaceous and shrub burning is not a project activity
aboveground biomass
(cover burns) as a project

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activity may occur

VM0033 6) Where the project Not relevant, because peatlands are

proponent intends to claim absent within the project boundary. See
emission reductions from Section 3.2.1.1
reduced frequency of peat
fires, project activities must
include a combination of
rewetting and fire
management

VM0033 7) Where the project Not relevant, because organic soils are
proponent intends to claim absent within the project boundary. See
emission reductions from Section 3.2.1.1
reduced frequency of peat
fires, it must be
demonstrated that a threat
of frequent on-site fires
exists, and the
overwhelming cause of
ignition of the organic soil is
anthropogenic (e.g.,
drainage of the peat, arson)

VM0033 8) In strata with organic soil, Not relevant, because organic soils are
afforestation, reforestation, absent within the project boundary. See
and revegetation (ARR) Section 3.2.1.1
activities must be combined
with rewetting

This methodology is not applicable under the following conditions

VM0033 1) Project activities qualify This is an ARR WRC project activity

as IFM or REDD

VM0033 2) Baseline activities include Baseline activities do not include

commercial forestry commercial forestry and are limited to:

- Pockets of unregulated free-range

grazing of camels, buffaloes and other
livestock

- Mangrove fuelwood collection

- Inadequate or no investment in the

restoration of degraded mangrove

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areas

VM0033 3) Project activities lower Project activities do not lower the water
the water table, unless the table and are limited to:
project converts open water
to tidal wetlands, or - Collection of propagules
improves the hydrological
- Nurseries raising
connection to impounded
waters - Planting of mangrove propagules and
saplings

- Activities with communities such as:

- Protection of planted areas through

control and regulation of camels and
other livestock grazing

- Increasing access to safe and

affordable drinking water

- Enhancing children’s access to

education

- Improving access to health facilities

- Developing civic facilities

- Raising awareness of communities

and other stakeholders

- Implementing training and capacity

building activities for communities and
other relevant stakeholders

VM0033 Hydrological connectivity of The project does not cause any

the Project Area with alteration of the hydrology. See Section
adjacent areas leads to a 3.2.3.2 for further elaboration.
significant increase in GHG
emissions outside the
Project Area

VM0033 Project activities include the This is not a project activity. Organic
burning of organic soil soils are absent within the project
boundary (see Section 3.2.1.1).

VM0033 Nitrogen fertilizer(s), such as The application of nitrogen fertiliser is

chemical fertilizer or not a project activity
manure, are applied in the

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Project Area during the

project crediting period

VMD0052 Project activities restoring The project is an afforestation and

tidal wetlands may include reforestation project of mangrove trees
any of the following, or and is “(Re-introducing native plant
combinations of the communities (e.g., reseeding or
following: replanting)” Mangroves live in the
intertidal zone.
• Creating, restoring
and/or managing
hydrological conditions
(e.g., removing tidal
barriers, improving
hydrological
connectivity, restoring
tidal flow to wetlands or
lowering water levels on
impounded wetlands)

• Altering sediment supply

(e.g., beneficial use of
dredge material or
diverting river sediments
to sediment-starved
areas)

• Changing salinity
characteristics (e.g.,
restoring tidal flow to
tidally restricted areas)

• Improving water quality

(e.g., reducing nutrient
loads leading to
improved water clarity to
expand seagrass
meadows, recovering
tidal and other
hydrologic flushing and
exchange or reducing
nutrient residence time)

• (Re-)introducing native
plant communities (e.g.,
reseeding or replanting)

• Improving management

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practice(s) (e.g.,
removing invasive
species, reduced
grazing)

In RWE-ARR project
activities, the prescribed
burning of herbaceous and
shrub aboveground biomass
(cover burns) may occur

CDM AR Tool 2 Forestation of the land1 The project does not lead to violation of
within the proposed project any applicable law even if the law is not
boundary performed with or enforced. The condition is met as there
without being registered as is no violation of the applicable law. The
the A/R CDM project activity applicable laws are the Pakistan Forest
shall not lead to violation of Act 1927 and Sindh Grazing Rules
any applicable law even if 1936. The provisions of both these
the law is not enforced. applicable laws are being adhered to.
See Section 3.1.4.

CDM AR Tool 2 This tool is not applicable to This is a large-scale project activity.
small - scale afforestation
and reforestation project
activities.

CDM AR Tool 4 The tool shall be used in the The VCS allows these tools to be used
application of an A/R CDM across all its approved methodologies.
approved methodology to an The tool is used to assess the
A/R CDM project activity: significance of the emissions of fossil
fuel use.
a) To determine which
decreases in carbon
pools and increases in
emissions of the
greenhouse gases
measured in CO2
equivalents that result
from the
implementation of the
A/R project activity, are
insignificant and can be
neglected.
b) b) To ensure that it is
valid to neglect
decreases in carbon

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pools and increases in

GHG emissions by
sources stated as being
insignificant in the
applicability conditions
of an A/R CDM
methodology.

3.1.3 Project Boundary (VCS, 3.12)

3.1.3.1 Temporal boundaries

A potential temporal boundary for the project is the Soil Organic Carbon Depletion Time (SDT) in the baseline
scenario, which defines the period during which the project can claim emission reductions from restoration
efforts. However, projects that only account for greenhouse gas (GHG) removals in biomass and/or soil,
without quantifying baseline emission reductions, do not need to estimate SDT.

This ARR/RWE project does not claim avoided soil emissions (stop loss) as a result of restoration activities.
Therefore, no temporal boundary is applicable.

3.1.3.2 Geographic boundaries

3.1.3.2.1 ARR/RWE project boundary

The entire project area is designated as "Protected Forests," which are state property. Consequently, the
Government of Sindh holds both land rights and user rights. Official notifications declaring the area as
Protected Forests will be made available for review by the VVB.

The outer boundary shown in the map in Section 2.1.16 (depicting the planting polygons for each planting
year) outlines the Project Zone. The ARR/RWE Project Area, in the strict sense, is defined by the various
planting cohorts (totaling 193,495 ha, as detailed in Section 3.2.2.1) and includes areas anticipated to be
gained due to sea level rise (new mangrove habitats), as discussed in Section 3.1.3.2.2.
Figure 16: Projected Erosion and Wetland Creation over a 100-year period in the Project Area

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3.1.3.2.2 Project boundary and sea level rise

IPCC most-likely local sea level rise scenario

The sea level rise scenario used for the analyses is the IPCC’s RCP8.5, which assumes a rise of 0.52 to
0.98 m by 2100. A conservative approach of using a 1 m rise in century sea level rise was taken, although
the local tectonic activity suggests that the rate of sea level rise around Karachi is slightly less than the
global average (Khan and Rabbani, 2000)32.

Loss of tidal wetlands due to sea level rise

Since the cumulative damming efforts from the 1950s through to the 1970s, the Indus Delta has shifted
from a mostly pro-gradational environment to one exhibiting both accretion and erosion. Erosion is defined
as the loss of tidal wetland sediments due to wind/wave activity that is occurring before submergence. The

32
Khan, T. M. A. and M. M. Rabbani. 2000. Sea level monitoring and study of sea level variations along
Pakistan coast: a component of integrated coastal zone management. National Institute of
Oceanography, Karachi, Pakistan.

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current erosion rate is variable depending on location and the timeframe examined. Kanwal et al. (2020) 33
calculated that the average erosion rate between 1989 and 2018 was 12.5 and 19.96 m yr -1 west and
east of the Indus River, respectively, and that the maximum erosion rate ranged from 52 to 72 m yr -1. Other
estimates of erosion range from an average of 34.3 m yr -1 between 1990 and 2017 (Siyal, 2018)34 to
erosional hotspots with 31 to 176 m yr-1 loss rates (Chaudhry, no date)35. An average rate of 19.96 m yr-1
from Kanwal et al. (2020) was used and applied to areas of the Delta bordering the Arabian Sea. This rate
was chosen based on the rigor of the analysis and the rate from the eastern bank was applied to the
western bank of the Indus River to be conservative. This rate assumes conservatively that no changes in
outflow from the Indus River occurs during the project period, specifically greater flow of freshwater and
sediment supply resembling pre-damming conditions. The likelihood of this occurring is very minimal and
would require either many consecutive dam failures or a multinational plan to increase river input to the
Indus Delta throughout the year.

In collaboration with NASA, a 2019 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM)
was acquired and transformed using the Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) ellipsoid model so that elevations
were relative to sea level. The units are in metres and at the integer (whole number) level. To assess the
accuracy of the DEM, a local survey team collected elevation data across a range of current and future
restoration sites in the western portion of the Indus Delta using a real time kinetic (RTK) GPS unit with a
vertical accuracy of 2-3 cm36. A total of 430 elevation points was taken across 20 sites. The elevation
ranges were consistent with the DEM, meaning that the surveyed elevation was within 1 m of the DEM 37,
and no transformation was needed. Using this DEM, it was confirmed that the elevations along the coastal
margins of the Indus Delta are uniform, and the DEM was not used further in this particular analysis.

To assess the combined effects of sea level rise and erosion, a simple mathematical calculation tool was
used (See Appendix 7). The tool was parameterised using project-specific values, the RCP8.5 century sea
level rise of 1 m and an erosion rate of 19.96 m yr -1. The model was applied to the Project Area closest to
the shoreline (approximately 2.1 km inland from the current shoreline). The calculation tool did not lend
evidence to the drowning of the interior areas of the Indus Delta due to sea level rise. Therefore, only the

33
Kanwal, S., X. Ding, M. Sajjad and S. Abbas. 2020. Three Decades of Coastal Changes in Sindh,
Pakistan (1989–2018): A Geospatial Assessment. Remote Sensing 12(1):8.
34
Siyal, A.A. 2018. Climate change: Assessing impact of seawater intrusion on soil, water and
environment on Indus delta using GIS & remote sensing tools. US. Pakistan. Center for Advanced
Studies in Water (USPCAS-W), MUET, Jamshoro, Pakistan
35
Chaudhry, Q., no date. Pakistan Coastal Erosion Management Plan. IUCN Pakistan.
36
There are no survey-grade benchmarks within the vicinity of the Project Area. Therefore, the RTK base
station was set up in the same location every day and the same reference point was surveyed to monitor
vertical accuracy. All sites surveyed were within the communication range for the base station
(approximately 60 km).
37
The elevations presented in the DEM are integer based, meaning that the values are whole numbers.
The RTK elevation survey provides sub-metre elevations with 2-3 cm accuracy. If the survey elevation
data could either be rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer and that matched the DEM, they
were deemed in alignment with each other.

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coastal erosion scenario was applied. The amount of lateral retreat in metres that occurred in this scenario
was recorded in five-year increments.

Using GIS, spatial buffers38 were created to represent the tidal wetland loss using the lateral retreat values
for each five-year increment, and it is assumed that the erosion was occurring from the coastline inland.
The amount of area within each plantation that is predicted to be lost along the coastline was calculated
for each time increment, accounting for the year that the planting occurred.

Conversion of terrestrial upland sites to tidal wetlands due to sea level rise

The terrestrial upland edge across the Indus Delta is expansive and relatively uniform, with a minor gradual
slope. Therefore, the creation of newly inundated lands due to sea level rise is anticipated to be expansive.
Based on the DEM, it is assumed that a 1 m increase in elevation occurs over a 1,000 m distance (this is
not a rounded value but an estimate from the DEM).

Using the DEM and recent satellite imagery, the current project boundary was adjusted assuming that up
to 1,000 m of adjacent terrestrial upland sites will be inundated after 100 years. Due to the coarseness of
the DEM, this could not be done using GIS processing alone. The imagery was used to inform major
boundaries such as roads, large man-made canals carrying fresh water, and villages. The DEM was used
to inform where significant increases in elevation occur (hillsides). Not all of the potential adjacent
terrestrial upland areas that are likely to be flooded were included within the project boundary.

3.1.3.2.3 Ineligible wetland areas

For projects quantifying CO 2 emission reductions, areas which do not achieve a significant difference (≥
5%) in cumulative carbon loss over a period of 100 years beyond the project start date are not eligible for
crediting based on the reduction of baseline emissions, and these areas must be mapped.

The ARR/RWE project does not claim avoided emissions (stop loss) from the soil as a result of the
restoration activities. Therefore, the difference in SOC stocks between the baseline and project scenarios
at the 100-year time mark does not need to be assessed.

Source Gas Included? Justification/explanation

CO2 N/A No changes in salinity or CH 4 emissions as a

result of the project. Baseline and project
The production
Baseline

emissions, if any, will cancel each other out.

of methane by
microbes CH4 No

N2O N/A

38
A spatial buffer is a classification of area within a given proximity, measuring a distance from an object
in GIS, whether a point, line, or area.

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Source Gas Included? Justification/explanation

Other N/A

CO2 N/A

CH4 N/A

N2O No This is the same as for CH 4. Furthermore, no

Denitrification / changes in agricultural land use because of
nitrification the project. Due to salinisation of the land
surrounding the Indus Delta, agricultural
production is decreasing in the area and
subsequently less fertiliser is being used.

Other N/A

CO2 No Conservatively excluded, if occurring at all in

the baseline scenario
Burning of CH4 No
biomass and
organic soil N2O No

Other N/A

CO2 No Conservatively excluded

CH4 No
Fossil fuel use
N2O No

Other N/A

CO2 N/A

The production CH4 No See Baseline

of methane by
microbes N2O N/A
Project

Other N/A

CO2 N/A
Denitrification /
CH4 N/A
nitrification
N2O Yes See Baseline

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Source Gas Included? Justification/explanation

Other N/A

CO2 No Not a project activity

CH4 No
Burning of
biomass
N2O No

Other N/A

CO2 No In AR-ACM003, GHG emissions resulting from

combustion of fossil fuel and transportation
CH4 No attributable to the project activity are
considered. Moreover, project activities
N2O No include planting of trees and do not include
Fossil fuel use the movement of soil. This PD provides an
estimate of GHG emissions due to fossil fuel
use and justifies that these emissions are de
minimis.

Other N/A

3.1.4 Baseline Scenario (VCS, 3.13)

The baseline scenario has been determined using the latest version of CDM AR tool 2 (Combined tool to
identify the baseline scenario and demonstrate additionality for A/R CDM project activities).

Applicability

The project does not lead to violation of any applicable law even if the law is not enforced. The condition is
met as there is no violation of the applicable law. The applicable laws are the Pakistan Forest Act 1927 and
Sindh Grazing Rules 1936. The provisions of both these applicable laws are being adhered to. The
applicability conditions of this tool are described in Section 3.1.2.

Stepwise Process

STEP 0. Preliminary screening based on the starting date of the ARR/RWE activity

The project passes this screening as the project start date is after 31 December 1999.

See Section 2.1.10 for more information.

STEP 1. Identification of alternative land use scenarios to the proposed project activity

Sub-step 1a. Identification of alternative land use scenarios to the proposed project activity

The following possible alternatives to the project activity have been evaluated:

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• Continuation of the pre-project land use (as described below)

• Natural mangrove regeneration of the land within the project boundary
• Mangrove reforestation of the land within the project boundary performed without being registered
as a project activity intended for the carbon market
Sub-step 1b. Consistency of credible alternative land use scenarios with enforced mandatory applicable
laws and regulations

To demonstrate that identified alternatives to the project activity are in compliance with all the applicable
legal and regulatory requirements, the applicable laws and regulations that are implemented are listed
below.

The Pakistan Forest Act, 1927, in its application to Sindh Province

Sindh Grazing Rules, 1936
The above regulatory framework was taken into consideration while evaluating the alternatives to the
project activity and the following alternatives listed are in compliance with the applicable laws and
regulations.

STEP 2. Barrier analysis Sub-step 2a. Identification of barriers that would prevent the implementation of at
least one alternative land use scenarios

The table below displays the barrier analysis matrix, which identifies alternatives and barriers. A more
complete discussion of the barriers follows.

Table 15. Barrier analysis matrix.

Alternative land use Barriers

Technological

scenarios

Land tenure
Institutional
Investment

Ecological

Social

1. Continuation of pre project land use

2. Natural mangrove regeneration of land within

X
the project boundaries

3. Mangrove reforestation within the project

boundaries without being registered as a VCS X X X X
project

Based on this barrier analysis matrix, scenario 2 (natural mangrove regeneration) faces ecological barriers,
while scenario 3 (mangrove reforestation without being registered as a VCS) is constrained by investment,
institutional, technological and social barriers as explained below.

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Investment Barriers: There is insufficient grant or credit funding available to Sindh Forest Department from
any funding agency to invest in large scale restoration of the degraded mangrove lands. Sindh Forest
Department receives grant funding from the Government of Sindh for implementation of its various
development projects through the mechanism of Annual Development Programme (ADP). In the past, it has
received very little funds and at irregular intervals for investment in the restoration of these degraded lands
through the ADPs. To show that this is the case, copies of ADP will be made available to the VVB. Also, local
communities have no financial means of their own, access to credit funding, or other incentive (these being
state owned lands) to invest in restoration.

Other programs seeking grant or concessional funding for general development activities have typically
taken a broad approach to activity type and geographic focus, reaching provincial-scale or Indus basin level.
One such program is the Sindh Coastal Community Development Project, consisting of concessional debt
finance provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for a broad range of community development,
improved coastal management, and capacity building of the Coastal Development Authority. Mangrove
restoration constituted approximately 10% of the loan amount.39 The program concluded in 2013,
achieving a relatively small scale (10,600 hectares) of overall planting. Carbon finance provides the
Government of Sindh a fiscally viable alternative to incurring debt in pursuit of large-scale mangrove
restoration.

Institutional Barriers: The Sindh Forest Department is unable to effectively enforce its laws in the project
area due to a lack of funds, resulting in the degradation of mangrove forests. Furthermore, there is no
formal provision in the applicable laws mandating the restoration of these degraded lands, nor does the
Sindh Government's Provincial Forest Policy address this issue. Relevant sections of the Pakistan Forest
Act, 1927, concerning Protected Forests will be made available to the VVB.

Other national-scale projects, such as the Ecosystem Restoration Initiative and the Living Indus Project,
include elements of ecosystem protection and restoration. However, both require intergovernmental
implementation planning and do not provide dedicated funding or capabilities for restoration efforts in the
Indus Delta.

Technological Barriers: Without project funding, the Sindh Forest Department and local communities lack
access to sufficient planting materials, equipment, infrastructure, and other technological resources
necessary for large-scale mangrove restoration. Neither the Forest Department nor local communities have
received assistance to overcome these technological barriers. Documentation of the Finance Department's
non-release of the regular budget for these activities by the Forest Department will be provided to the VVB.

Ecological Barriers: The project area faces a lack of natural propagules for regeneration, and any available
propagules are washed away by tide water, resulting in minimal to no natural regeneration. Historical
satellite images and maps, provided in Appendix 10, demonstrate the minimal natural regeneration due to
these ecological barriers.

Social Barriers: Demographic pressures, such as increased land demand due to population growth and
greater land loss due to sea intrusion, combined with biotic pressures from grazing, fodder, and fuelwood

39
Completion Report: Sindh Coastal Community Development Project. 2014. Asian Development Bank.

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collection, hinder natural regeneration under the baseline scenario. Statistics on population growth rates
and photographs of animals grazing and fodder and fuelwood collection will be provided to the VVB.

Land Tenure Barriers: Since the lands are state-owned, local communities have no incentive to invest in
the restoration of these degraded mangrove areas. Government notifications declaring these lands as
Protected Forests will be provided to the VVB.

These are explained in more detail below.

Sub-step 2b. Elimination of land use scenarios that are prevented by the identified barriers

The above matrix eliminates scenario 2 based on ecological considerations and scenario 3 on investment,
institutional and technological barriers basis. A host of sources including government management
plans40,41, laws, expert reports42,43, research papers by academics and researchers44, and reports by
international bodies and organisations demonstrate the existence and significance of these identified
barriers.45,46,47 The only likely scenario that is expected to continue is scenario 1, the pre-project land-use.
Therefore, this is the most likely land-use scenario and hence will be used as the business-as-usual or
baseline scenario.

Scenario 1: Continuation of the pre-project land use

No barriers

The land subject to the project activity is degraded mangrove habitat. The planting areas of this ARR/RWE
project activity are sited in a coastal location where the population pressure and short-term economic
incentives increased the degradation of the mangroves over several decades. Between 1950 and 2000,
there was a major loss of mangrove forest cover in Pakistan. The factors responsible for the degradation of
Indus Delta mangroves were reduced flow of fresh water and silt from the Indus River, inflow of pollutants
from industries, navigational activities and intermix of industrial effluents, browsing and grazing by

40
Wagan, Riaz. 2013. Management of Mangroves by Sindh Forest Department.
41
Qureshi, Tahir, M. 1984. Working plan of Mangroves (Coastal) forest.
42
Rasool, Fayyaz. 1997. Mangrove Restoration Project in Pakistan. Technical Report.
43
Lavieren, Hanneke Van, Mark Spalding, Daniel M. Alongi, Mami Kainuma, Miguel Clüsener-Godt, Zafar
Adeel. 2012. Policy Brief: Securing the Future of Mangroves.
44
Mukhtar, Irum and Abdul Hannan. 2012. Constrains on mangrove forests and conservation projects in
Pakistan. J Coast Conserv (2012) 16:51–62
45
IUCN. 2005. Mangroves of Pakistan: Status and Management.
46
MFF. 2010. Pakistan: National Strategy and Action Plan
47
FAO. 2016. Mangrove related policies and institutional frameworks in Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam.

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livestock, wood and fodder harvesting, meandering and erosion of creek banks, over-fishing and gradual
rise in sea level (Amjad et al., 2007).48

The most plausible baseline scenario is identified as degraded tidal wetland, more specifically: degraded
mangrove habitat. The current degraded state is characterised by a near absence of sources of mangrove
propagules, high salinity, and trampling of and damage to any newly emerging natural seedlings/natural
regeneration by camels/other livestock and browsing by camels/other livestock and lopping of branches of
mangroves and mangrove propagules for fodder and fuelwood purposes. Ecological conditions for natural
establishment of mangroves will not occur in the absence of the project activity, as outlined in Scenario 2.

Scenario 2: Natural regeneration of mangroves within the project boundary

Ecological barriers

There are ecological barriers49 that hinder the natural re-generation process in the Project Area. These
include the very low availability/long distance from mangrove propagule sources to certain areas
(particularly high lying areas or those without natural vegetation), flushing out of the propagules out of the
site with tide water (especially those of Avicennia marina, which have smaller propagules), and damage to
the degenerated areas on account of biotic pressure, such as grazing and fodder collection.

Appendix 11 provides additional information on the limited presence of natural regeneration of mangroves
in the Project Area.

Scenario 3: Mangrove regeneration within the project boundaries without being registered as a VCS project

Investment barriers, other than economic/financial barriers

The rationale behind the project is twofold: restoring of degraded mangrove wetlands and providing an
economic stimulus in a depressed area by revitalising the important livelihood function of fisheries for local
communities.

There is neither credit nor credit funding for non-profitable activities beyond the programme Mangroves for
the Future of which this ARR/RWE project activity is part. The programme is developed in consultation with
local communities, which have already demonstrated a successful track record in environmental
awareness and mobilising local people to participate in mangrove regeneration. Local communities do not
have the financial or technical capacity to implement the project without the involvement of the Sindh
Forest Department, which in turn does not have the needed resources to invest at a scale that is required

48
Amjad, A.S., I. Kasawani, and J. Kamaruzaman.2007. Degradation of Indus Delta Mangroves in
Pakistan. International Journal of Geology 3(1): 1-8.
49
In the project, ecological barriers are duly addressed when propagules are taken to sites where they
otherwise do not reach, their flushing with tide water is stopped when pits are made for planting and
grazing and fodder collection are controlled in newly planted areas by the Forest Department. Once
plantations are established, then through root zone development natural regeneration begins to occur.
The protection of the Project Area against drivers of forest degradation is also significant.

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to restore mangrove areas, reduce deforestation and undertake ARR, biodiversity conservation and
community development activities.

Technological barriers

The contribution of the technical assistance for mangrove restoration is necessary for the project’s success.
Without the project, local communities will not have access to necessary materials, i.e., they will not be
able to collect and plant mangrove propagules at a scale that is required for restoring the vast de-vegetated
areas. They also will be limited by the lack of knowledge and infrastructure for implementation of the
technology needed for restoration of the area under ecological principles.

Social barriers

Most of the population residing in the region comprises fishermen. To maintain these kinds of traditional
fisheries, having an intact mangrove habitat is essential, which significantly supports the local livelihood.
Large-scale awareness raising and mobilisation of the community is key to restore the region with a
mangrove ecosystem providing multiple benefits, both economically as well as ecologically. The reality,
however, is that if there is no organised programme to involve communities and monitor efforts, these
programs are unlikely to be developed by local communities themselves. DBC-2 is a large-scale project that
requires massive allocation and coordination of resources that are widely unavailable but for the presence
of carbon finance.

Social barriers that will hinder large-scale mangrove restoration in the area include:

• Widespread and abject poverty throughout the Project Zone.

• Lack of options and opportunities for earning alternative sources of livelihood in the baseline
scenario.
• Lack of knowledge, skills and other human capabilities and capacities for earning diversified and
high levels of income.
• Demographic pressure on land due to population growth and loss of land due to saltwater intrusion
and coastal erosion.
• Inability to stop unauthorised practices such as livestock grazing in newly planted areas.
• Lack of organisation of communities to undertake the restoration works.
• Chances of any social conflict among various interest groups in the area.
• Inability to engage in raising awareness of the local communities and mobilising them for restoring
the degraded areas.

3.1.5 Additionality (VCS, 3.14)

This project is eligible to use an activity method for the demonstration of additionality of tidal wetlands
conservation and restoration project activities provided in Module ADD-AM (Demonstration of Additionality
of Tidal Wetland Restoration and Conservation Project Activities).

Step 1: Regulatory surplus

The project is not mandated by any law, statute or other regulatory framework, or any systematically
enforced law, statute or other regulatory framework. While asking for protection of existing forests, the
applicable law (Pakistan Forest Act, 1927) in its application to Sindh Province does not mandate replanting
or restoration of mangrove forests.

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Step 2: Positive list

The project demonstrates that it meets all of the applicability conditions listed in Section 3.1.2, and in so
doing, it is deemed as complying with the positive list. The project is, therefore, additional.

3.1.5.1 Regulatory Surplus (VCS, 3.14)

Is the project located in an UNFCCC Annex 1 or Non-Annex 1 country?

☐ Annex 1 country ☒ Non-Annex 1 country

Are the project activities mandated by any law, statute, or other regulatory framework?

☐ Yes ☒ No

3.1.5.2 Additionality Methods (VCS, 3.14)

Conformance with the positive list is demonstrated in the Applicability of Methodology section above.

3.1.6 Methodology Deviations (VCS, 3.20)

None

3.2 Quantification of Estimated GHG Emission Reductions and Removals

3.2.1 Baseline Emissions (VCS, 3.15)

3.2.1.1 Stratification

Organic soil

The Project Area does not include organic soils.

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Figure 17. Soil map of the Project Area highlighting the absence of organic soils.

Native ecosystems

To claim emission removals from ARR or WRC activities, evidence must be provided that the Project Area
was not cleared of native ecosystems to create GHG credits. Such proof is not required where such clearing
took place prior to the 10-year period prior to the project start date.

The mangroves in the Indus Delta are naturally generated through a succession process on suitable islands
in the creek systems created by the Indus River and its many tributaries. Over millennia, the Indus River
has been continually changing course and there is evidence that it once flowed near Karachi before shifting
eastwards. Currently, the river runs near Khobar Creek in the centre of the Delta (Qureshi, 1985) 50.

50
Qureshi, M, T. 1985. Working Plan of Mangrove Forests Coastal Forest Division (1985-86 to 2004-05).
Sindh Forest Department, Karachi.

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In the British era (1858-1947), the estimated area of the Indus Delta was 1,000,000 ha (10,000 km 2)51,
with the Delta stretching from Kotri to Umerkot.

Natural stands of mangroves thrived in the areas where the Indus River and its tributaries brought silt and
freshwater from upstream, which, when mixed with saline water from the Arabian Sea, created a conducive
environment for their development.

Estimates suggest that at that time the mangroves within the current project region were in the range of
160,000 ha with another 100,000 ha of very sparse or no vegetation (Qureshi, 1985). Due to low
population density, these areas were almost undisturbed and mangrove exploitation for fuelwood was
insignificant.

The fertile high-lying deltaic areas, mainly at the interface of the Indus River and away from the coast, were
cultivated on fresh water from the river, or a mixture of saline and fresh water having very low salinity levels.
During that era, the communities of Kharo Chan, Keti Bundar and Shah Bundar had very good agrarian
economy and these areas would produce red rice in abundance on fresh water, as reported in gazetteers
and revenue records (Hague, 1894).

However, with the construction of dams, barrages and earthen embankments on both sides of the river
from 1932 onwards, freshwater flooding frequency fell, and the movement of the Indus was confined within
the protection embankments. The agricultural lands were developed on the inland irrigation system after
the construction of Kotri Barrage in 1955 and onwards to help local people in cultivating the barren lands
of districts Thatta and Badin. However, due to excessive withdrawal of water upstream, the downstream
end areas of Kotri Barrage gradually received little or no water. Consequently, red rice cultivation areas
were gradually reduced and eventually completely abandoned in the 1960s.

Natural mudflats are not part of the Project Area due to their low-lying nature and wave wash action. All
project plantations – and future planned plantations – are on degraded mangrove areas or abandoned red
rice cultivation areas. Natural mud flats are hard to map and they change continually in the dynamic delta
environment. In the field, however, they are easily discernible and not included in the planted polygons.
Accordingly, there is no conversion of any sort of ecosystem in these deltaic areas or conversion of native
systems to create GHG credits within the Project Area.

Stratification of salinity for the accounting of CH 4

Due to the large reduction in river flow due to the damming of the Indus River, the amount of freshwater
that reaches the Delta has been drastically reduced since the 1950s. Historical data of downstream from
Kotri Barrage discharge is shown in Figure below. Therefore, the Indus Delta is largely a marine-driven
system. Rice fields have been abandoned prior to project implementation (see above) and since then
salinity levels have increased. Soil salinity within the Delta within the top 20 cm was between 31 and 65
deciSiemens per metre, which is approximately 25 to 52 ppt (Solangi et al., 2019 52). This salinity range is

51
Haig, M, R. 1894. Indus Delta Country: A memoir Chiefly on Its Ancient Geography and History. K.
Paul, Trench, Trubner & Co. Ltd. London.
52
Solangi, G. S., A. A. Siyal, M. M. Babar, and P. Siyal. 2019. Spatial Analysis of Soil Salinity in the Indus
River Delta, Pakistan. Engineering, Technology and Applied Science Research 9(3): 4271-4275.

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above the salinity threshold where methanogenesis occurs, which is approximately 20 ppt. Project
activities, specifically planting, do not change the flow or salinity of the water within the project boundary
so it is extremely unlikely that a change in salinity will occur. The default value for CH4 emissions above 20
ppt would be applied for both the baseline and project scenarios and thus would negate each other.

Figure 18. Downstream discharge from Kotri Barrage (million cusec), from 1937 to 2016, and
sediment discharge (MT, 1 ton = 0.98 metric tonne), from 1955 to 2015 (Kidwai et al., 2019)53.

Key
variables for stratification

The Project Area does not include organic soils. Mineral soils in the Indus Delta are relatively low in SOC
and this soil characteristic provides no basis for the distinction of strata.

In the baseline scenario, the degraded mangrove habitats are almost completely void of any vegetation.
The presence of ground vegetation (Oryza coarctata grass) only grows in the rainy season and is not a
permanent cover. Therefore, vegetation cover does not give rise to strata. Natural regeneration of

53
Kidwai, S., W. Ahmed, S. M. Tabrez, J. Zhang, L. Giosan, P. Clift, and A. Inam. 2019. The Indus Delta -
Catchment, River, Coast, and People. Coasts and Estuaries (pp. 213-232). Elsevier.

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mangroves does occur to a limited extent, but carbon stocks in this vegetation are not significant, as shown
in Appendix 11. For baseline accounting, the de-vegetated and degraded mangrove area delineated in
Figure 16 above is considered as one area, subdivided into persistent tidal wetland, wetland lost due to
sea level rise and new mangrove habitats (see Section 3.1.3.2.2). Such sub-strata are defined in 5-year
time steps.

Loss of wetland due to sea level rise causes a loss of SOC. Areas (i.e., strata) lost have been assessed as
outlined in Section 3.2.1.5.5. Results are the same as for planted areas in the project scenario, see Section
3.2.2.5.1.5.

3.2.1.2 Projection of Future Conditions

Ex-ante projections of GHG pools and emissions under the baseline scenario are determined by future
conditions and associated key variables that can be projected by follow the procedures in VCS module
VMD0019 (Methods to Project Future Conditions). Results of the application of this module are provided in
Appendix 10.

3.2.1.3 Emissions and removals in the baseline scenario

Net CO2e emissions in the baseline scenario are calculated using the following equations.

GHGBSL = GHGBSL-biomass + GHGBSL-soil + GHGBSL-fuel (18)54

t* MBSL
æ 44 ö
GHGBSL-biomass = -å å 12 BSL-biomass,i,t ÷
ç ´ DC
t=1 i=1 è ø (19)

t* MBSL

GHGBSL-soil = å å GHG BSL-soil,i,t

t=1 i=1 (20)

t* MBSL

GHGBSL-fuel = å å GHG BSL-fuel,i,t

t=1 i=1 (21)

Where:

GHGBSL Net CO2e emissions in the baseline scenario up to year t*; t CO2e

GHGBSL-biomass Net CO2e emissions from biomass carbon pools in the baseline scenario up to year t*; t
CO2e

GHGBSL-soil Net CO2e emissions from the SOC pool in the baseline scenario up to year t*; t CO2e

54
Equations per VM0033.

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GHGBSL-fuel Net CO2e emissions from fossil fuel use in the baseline scenario up to year t*; t CO2e

ΔCBSL-biomass,i,t Net carbon stock changes in biomass carbon pools in the baseline scenario in stratum i
in year t; t C yr-1

GHGBSL-soil,i,t GHG emissions from the SOC pool in the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e
yr-1

GHGBSL-fuel,i,t GHG emissions from fossil fuel use the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e yr-
1

i 1, 2, 3 …MBSL strata in the baseline scenario

t 1, 2, 3, … t* years elapsed since the project start date

Fossil fuel combustion in the baseline scenario is not a significant emissions source in this ARR/RWE
project activity, as it does not move soil material.

Results are provided in Table 24.

3.2.1.4 Net carbon stock change in biomass carbon pools in the baseline scenario

The baseline scenario represents degraded mangrove habitats almost void of any vegetation and without
significant natural recovery. GHG removals in this baseline vegetation is considered de minimis. Therefore,
GHG removals in the project scenario will not need any deduction and correction for the presence of
baseline mangrove vegetation. Hence, there will be no exclusion of a portion of the Project Area from GHG
removals calculations as this portion is estimated at below the permissible de minimis percentage. See
Appendix 11 for a complete analysis.

3.2.1.5 Net GHG emissions from soil in the baseline scenario

3.2.1.5.1 Net GHG emissions from soil

Net GHG emissions from soil in the baseline scenario are estimated as:

GHGBSL-soil,i,t = Ai,t × (GHGBSL-soil-CO2,i,t - Deductionalloch + GHGBSL-soil-CH4,i,t + GHGBSL-soil-N2O,i,t) (26)

GHGBSL-soil-CO2,i,t = GHGBSL-insitu-CO2,i,t + GHGBSL-eroded-CO2,i,t + GHGBSL-excav-CO2,i,t (27)

Where:

GHGBSL-soil,i,t GHG emissions from the SOC pool in the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; t
CO2e yr-1

GHGBSL-soil-CO2,i,t CO2 emissions from the SOC pool in the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; t
CO2e ha-1 yr-1

Deductionalloch Deduction from CO2 emissions from the SOC pool to account for the percentage of
the carbon stock that is derived from allochthonous soil organic carbon; t CO 2e ha-1
yr-1

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GHGBSL-soil-CH4,i,t CH4 emissions from the SOC pool in the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; t
CO2e ha-1 yr-1

GHGBSL-soil-N2O,i,t N2O emissions from the SOC pool in the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; t
CO2e ha-1 yr-1

Ai,t Area of stratum i in year t; ha

GHGBSL-insitu-CO2,i,t CO2 emissions from the tidal wetland SOC pool of in-situ soils in the baseline
scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e ha-1 yr-1

GHGBSL-eroded-CO2,i,t CO2 emissions from the eroded tidal wetland SOC pool in the baseline scenario in
stratum i in year t ; t CO2e ha-1 yr-1

GHGBSL-excav-CO2,i,t CO2 emissions from the tidal wetland SOC pool of soil exposed to an aerobic
environment through excavation in the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e
ha-1 yr-1

i 1, 2, 3 … MBSL strata in the baseline scenario

t 1, 2, 3, … t* years elapsed since the project start date

Areas are provided in Table 17.

Excavation occurred prior to the project start date associated with the establishment of fields for red rice
production since the early 19 th century55. SOC in piled-up soil has been exposed to oxidation for a long
period and may have reached a steady state value. Therefore, GHGBSL-excav-CO2,i is not accounted for, which
is always conservative for the baseline scenario.

3.2.1.5.2 CO2 emissions from soil – in situ

The baseline scenario represents degraded mangrove habitats almost void of any vegetation and without
any significant natural recovery, see Section 3.1.4. The presence of ground vegetation (Oryza coarctata
grass) is only seasonal as the grass only grows during the rainy season and is not a permanent cover. Under
such circumstances, SOC levels will continue to decline and eventually reach a steady state.

As outlined in Section 3.1.3.2.3, the ARR/RWE project does not claim avoided emissions (stop loss) from
the soil, as a result of the restoration activities.

CO2 emissions from the in-situ soil in the baseline scenario are conservatively not accounted for.

Deduction for allochthonous carbon

A deduction for allochthonous carbon would only apply if GHGBSL-insitu-CO2,i,t was negative (sequestration).
Since the baseline scenario does not involve accumulation of SOC, a deduction for allochthonous carbon
is not necessary.

55
Burnes, A. 1837. On Sindh. Journal of the Royal Geographical Society of London 7:11-20.

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3.2.1.5.3 CH4 emissions from soil – in situ

CH4 emissions from soil in the baseline scenario are not accounted for as CH 4 emissions do not increase
in the project scenario compared to the baseline scenario, see Section 3.2.1.1.

3.2.1.5.4 N2O emissions from soil – in situ

N2O emissions from soil in the baseline scenario are not accounted for, as N 2O emissions do not increase
in the project scenario compared to the baseline scenario, see Section 3.2.1.1.

3.2.1.5.5 CO2 emissions from soil – eroded

As outlined in Section 3.1.3.2.2, sea level rise will over a period of 100 years cause erosion and a loss of
wetland area. The predicted loss of wetland area has been calculated in 5-year time steps. For each time
step, the release of carbon and emission of CO 2 to the atmosphere from the eroded wetland soil has been
calculated using the following equations.

GHGBSL-eroded-CO2,i,t = 44/12 × CBSL-eroded,i,t × C%BSL-emitted,i,t / 100 (48)

CBSL-eroded,i,t = C%BSL-eroded,i,t × BD × Depth_eBSL,i,t x 10 (49)

Where:

GHGBSL-eroded-CO2,i,t CO2 emissions from the eroded tidal wetland SOC pool in the baseline scenario in
stratum i in year t ; t CO2e ha-1 yr-1

CBSL-eroded,i,t Soil organic carbon stock in eroded tidal wetland soil material in the baseline
scenario in stratum i in year t; t C ha-1

C%BSL-emitted,i,t Organic carbon loss due to oxidation, as a percentage of C mass present in eroded
tidal wetland soil material in the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; %

C%BSL-eroded,i,t Percentage of carbon of tidal wetland soil material eroded in the baseline scenario;
%

BD Soil bulk density; kg m-3

Depth_eBSL,i,t Depth of the eroded area from the surface to the surface prior to erosion in the
baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; m

As part of project planning, eight 1-m long soil cores were collected in degraded mangrove habitat
throughout the Indus Delta Area, which visually is similar to a mudflat56 environment with little (low-lying
grass, Oryza coarctata) to no vegetation. The cores were collected following the methods described in
Section 3.3.3.4. The average carbon stock within the top metre of soil is 163.6 t C ha -1 (range: 82.9 – 206.2
t C ha-1; standard deviation: 43.7; standard error: 17.8 t C ha -1; 95% CI: 30.3).

56
These are degraded mangrove areas reminiscent of mudflats. Native mudflats are not part of the
Project Area.

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When coastal erosion occurs, the entire marsh plain is eroded. It is assumed that the top metre of soil is
eroded (Depth_e i,t = 1 m)57. Areas of strata i and years t of erosion are provided in Table 18. The method
for calculating these areas is outlined in Section 3.1.3.2.2.

For tidal marsh and mangrove systems, a default factor for C%BSL-emitted,i,t may be used in the absence of
data suitable for using the published value approach, using the values provided below for the specified
carbon preservation depositional environment (CPDE).

In absence of any other data relevant for the Project Area, C%BSL-emitted,i,t is quantified using the default value
for the relevant CPDE, using the following equation:

If CPDE is “Normal Marine” or “Deltaic fluidized muds”, then C%BSL-emitted,i,t = 80% (51)

This means that 80% of the SOC eroded from the tidal wetland is emitted as CO 2.

3.2.2 Project Emissions (VCS, 3.15)

3.2.2.1 Stratification

Key variables for stratification

Soils in the Indus Delta will accumulate SOC due to the ARR/RWE project activity. SOC levels will, therefore,
be closely correlated with crown or vegetation cover. Avicennia plantations show a 50% canopy cover after
6-7 years. Rhizophora plantations are quickly colonised by Avicennia marina propagules, and thus show a
similar rate of canopy development (see Appendix 12). Notably, while SOC and crown cover are correlated,
canopy cover and biomass are poorly correlated due to the growth patterns of mangroves.

In the project scenario, the planting cohorts – starting in year 2023 and ending in year 2030 – are the
dominant factor in ex-post stratification. The map showing the planting cohorts is provided in Section
2.1.16. The coloured polygons delineate the areas planted and to be planted with mangrove species under
the ARR/RWE project activity. Table 16 provides a list of strata i and years t.

Additionally, the project anticipates that canopy cover will become a relevant variable for stratification.
Stratification by canopy cover will only become possible in approximately 6-8 years after each planting
cohort is planted, due to the growth rates of mangrove species and limitations in remote sensing
approaches. Based off of current technologies the project anticipates this step would begin in
approximately year 2030 (See Appendix 12 for further information). As remote sensing technology
develops, the potential for this additional stratification will be reviewed.

In addition, it is assumed that the areas that will become intertidal due to sea level rise (i.e., new mangrove
habitats) will be gradually colonised by mangrove species because of the nearby presence of mangroves
seeds and propagules. Furthermore, some wetland area is expected to be lost due to sea level rise, similar
to the scenario described for the baseline (see Section 3.2.1.1).

Thus, additional factors in ex-post stratification include:

57
This depth will be uses in both baseline and project scenario consistently.

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1. The loss of planted area due to sea level rise, giving rise to a zone actively reforested with
mangrove trees but then submerged/eroded and lost (“LOSS”) – (Table 17)
2. The gain of new mangrove habitat due to sea level rise (“GAIN”) – (Table 17)
3. Canopy cover in later years

Table 16. Annual planting

executed and targeted.

Year Area planted (ha)

2023 8,000

2024 27,000

2025 27,000

2026 27,000

2027 27,000

2028 27,000

2029 27,000

2030 23,495

Total 193,495

Table 17. Planted areas lost due to sea level

rise, and mangrove habitat gained due to sea
level rise, in 5-year steps.

Area lost Habitat gained

Year
(ha) (ha)

2023 322 630

2028 598 688

2033 632 765

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2038 2,561 842

2043 2,656 900

2048 2,673 936

2053 2,687 971

2058 2,661 979

2063 2,601 970

2068 2,555 993

2073 2,524 1,028

2078 2,502 1,025

2083 2,478 1,014

2088 2,450 1,021

2093 2,388 1,017

2098 2,367 1,011

2103 2,319 893

2108 2,241 800

2113 2,201 670

2118 2,174 622

2123 2,174 622

Stratification of salinity for the accounting of CH 4

CH4 emissions from soil in the project scenario are not accounted for, as CH 4 emissions do not increase in
the project scenario compared to the baseline scenario, see Section 3.2.1.1.

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The Indus Delta is a marine dominated system; freshwater flow from the Indus River is very limited due to
upstream damming and only occurs during the monsoon season. Methane emissions are not expected to
change with project activity because there is no alteration in freshwater flow and therefore the CH 4
emissions with the project are expected to be the same as in the baseline. Any changes, if they occur, to
the freshwater input from the Indus River will happen regardless of project activity.

3.2.2.2 Projection of future conditions

Ex-ante projections of GHG pools and emissions under the project scenario are determined by future
conditions and associated key variables that can be projected by following the procedures in VCS module
VMD0019 (Methods to Project Future Conditions). Results of the application of this module are provided in
Appendix 10.

3.2.2.3 Emissions and removals in the project scenario

Net CO2e emissions in the project scenario are calculated using the following equations.

GHGWPS = GHGWPS-biomass + GHGWPS-soil + GHGWPS-burn + GHGWPS-fuel (69)

t* MWPS
æ 44 ö
GHGWPS-biomass = -å å ç 12 WPS-biomass,i,t ÷
´ DC
t=1 i=1 è ø (70)

t* MWPS

GHGWPS-soil = å å GHG WPS-soil,i,t

t=1 i=1 (71)

t* MWPS

GHGWPS-burn = å å GHG WPS-burn,i,t

t=1 i=1 (72)

t* MWPS

GHGWPS-fuel = å å GHG WPS-fuel,i,t

t=1 i=1 (73)

Where:

GHGWPS Net CO2e emissions in the project scenario up to year t*; t CO2e

GHGWPS-biomass Net CO2e emissions from biomass carbon pools in the project scenario up to year t*; t
CO2e

GHGWPS-soil Net CO2e emissions from the SOC pool in the project scenario up to year t*; t CO2e

GHGWPS-burn Net CO2e emissions from prescribed burning in the project scenario up to year t*; t
CO2e

GHGWPS-fuel Net CO2e emissions from fossil fuel use in the project scenario up to year t*; t CO2e

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ΔCWPS-biomass,i,t Net carbon stock change in biomass carbon pools in the project scenario in stratum i in
year t; t C yr-1

GHGWPS-soil,i,t GHG emissions from the SOC pool in the project scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e yr-
1

GHGWPS-burn,i,t GHG emissions from prescribed burning in the project scenario in stratum i in year t; t
CO2e yr-1

GHGWPS-fuel,i,t GHG emissions from fossil fuel use the project scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e yr-1

i 1, 2, 3 …MWPS strata in the project scenario

t 1, 2, 3, … t* years elapsed since the project start date

3.2.2.4 Net carbon stock change in biomass carbon pools in the project scenario

Calculations follow the equations provided in VM0033 and CDM AR Tool 14 58.

ΔCWPS-biomass,i,t = ΔCWPS-tree/shrub,i,t + ΔCWPS-herb,i,t (74)

Where:

ΔCWPS-biomass,i,t Net carbon stock change in biomass carbon pools in the project scenario in stratum i
in year t; t C yr-1
ΔCWPS-tree/shrub,i,t Net carbon stock change in tree and shrub carbon pools in the project scenario in
stratum i in year t; t C yr-1
ΔCWPS-herb,i,t Net carbon stock change in herb carbon pools in the project scenario in stratum i in
year t; t C yr-1
i 1, 2, 3 …MWPS strata in the project scenario
t 1, 2, 3, … t* years elapsed since the project start date

Herbal vegetation development is Not Significant.

ΔCWPS-tree/shrub,i,t = 12/44 × (ΔCTREE_PROJ,t + ΔCSHRUB_PROJ,t) (75)

Where:

ΔCBSL-tree/shrub,i,t Net carbon stock change in tree and shrub carbon pools in the project scenario in
stratum i in year t; t C yr-1

ΔCTREE_PROJ,t Change in carbon stock in tree biomass in the project scenario in year t; t CO2-e yr-1
(derived from application of AR Tool 14; calculations are done for each stratum i)

58
Applicability conditions included in AR-ACM0003 and associated tools that exclude project activities on
wetlands can be disregarded as set out in VM0033.

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ΔCSHRUB_PROJ,t Change in carbon stock in shrub biomass in the project scenario in year t; t CO2-e yr-1
(derived from application of AR Tool 14; calculations are done for each stratum i)

Change in carbon stock in trees in a year is estimated as follows (Equation 11 from AR Tool 14):

Where:

ΔCTREE,t Change in carbon stock in trees within the project boundary in year t; t CO 2e

CTREE,t2 Carbon stock in trees within the project boundary at time t2; t CO2e

CTREE,t1 Carbon stock in trees within the project boundary at time t1; t CO2e

T Time elapsed between two successive estimations (T= t2 – t1;); yr

Procedures for the ex-post assessment of carbon stocks in tree biomass are provided in Section 3.3.3
(Monitoring Plan).

As outlined in Section 3.2.1.4, natural regeneration of pre-existing mangrove trees has been estimated and
is accounted for. However, given the fact that it is de minimis, there is no need to exclude a portion of the
Project Area from the GHG removals. Therefore, all present mangrove trees will be included in the
monitoring of the project scenario.

For the ex-ante calculations of the project scenario, the year of planting will be used as starting point for
biomass increase in mangroves.

GHG removals by biomass carbon pools other than tree biomass are conservatively not accounted for.

Ex-ante CO2 emissions or removals by mangrove plantations have been calculated for:

Areas actively reforested with mangrove trees (“ARR”)

Areas actively reforested with mangrove trees but then submerged/eroded and lost due to sea level
rise (“LOSS”)
Area of new mangrove habitat gained due to sea level rise (“GAIN”)
Forecasts of CO2 removals are based on:

Annual areas of tree planting under “ARR” (Table 17)

Loss of planted area under “LOSS” (Table 18)
Gain of new mangrove habitat under “GAIN” (Table 18)
General growth model for mangrove forest with A. marina and R. mucronata – see below
An instant loss of biomass and emission of CO 2 under “LOSS” – see below
A conservative deduction factor for CO 2 removals by mangrove growth under “GAIN” – see below
General growth model for mangrove forest with Avicennia and Rhizophora under “ARR”

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On the basis of a chronosequence of mangrove plantations in and in the vicinity of the Project Area, a
general local growth curve was developed, see Appendix 14 for a further explanation.

Figure 19. General growth model for mangrove plantations in the Indus Delta for ex-ante estimates of
GHG removals, based on a sampled chronosequence.

Loss of biomass under “LOSS”

VM0033 sets out that the consequences of submergence of a given stratum due to sea level rise is that
carbon stocks from aboveground biomass are lost to oxidation and it is assumed that this carbon is
immediately and entirely returned to the atmosphere. For such strata:

ΔCWPS-biomass,i,t = 12/44 × (CWPS-biomass,i,t – CWPS-biomass,i,(t-T)) / T (22)59

For the year of submergence (see Table 18):

CWPS-biomass,i,t = 0

Where:

ΔCWPS-biomass,i,t Net carbon stock change in biomass carbon pools in the project scenario in stratum i in
year t; t C yr-1

59
Suffixes adjusted for the project scenario

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CWPS-biomass,i,t Carbon stock in biomass in the project scenario in stratum i in year t (from CTREE_PROJ,t in
AR Tool 14); t CO2e

i 1, 2, 3 …MWPS strata in the project scenario

t 1, 2, 3, … t* years elapsed since the project start date

T Time elapsed between two successive estimations (T=t2 – t1)

Growth model under “GAIN”

It is assumed that upland areas that will become intertidal due to sea level rise (i.e., new mangrove habitats)
will be gradually covered by mangrove species as a result of the nearby presence of mangroves seeds and
propagules60. The general growth model presented above will be applicable, but with a reduction factor of
70% for a conservative carbon sequestration rate.

3.2.2.5 Net GHG emissions from soil in the project scenario

3.2.2.5.1 Procedures

3.2.2.5.1.1 Net GHG emissions from soil

Net GHG emissions from soils in the project scenario are estimated as:

GHGWPS-soil,i,t = Ai,t × (GHGWPS-soil-CO2,i,t - Deductionalloch + GHGWPS-soil-CH4,i,t + GHGWPS-soil-N2O,i,t) (79)

GHGWPS-soil-CO2,i,t = GHGWPS-insitu-CO2,i,t + GHGWPS-eroded-CO2,i,t + GHGWPS-excav-CO2,i,t (80)

Where:

GHGWPS-soil,i,t GHG emissions from the SOC pool in the project scenario in stratum i in year t; t
CO2e yr-1

GHGWPS-soil-CO2,i,t CO2 emissions from the SOC pool in the project scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e
ha-1 yr-1

Deductionalloch Deduction from CO2 emissions from the SOC pool to account for the percentage of
the carbon stock that is derived from allochthonous soil organic carbon; t CO 2e ha-1
yr-1

GHGWPS-soil-CH4,i,t CH4 emissions from the SOC pool in the project scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e
ha-1 yr-1

60
Although natural regeneration at the start of the project is almost nonexistent, the newly planted areas
in the Project Zone will be an ample sources of propagules.

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GHGWPS-soil-N2O,i,t N2O emissions from the SOC pool in the project scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e
ha-1 yr-1

Ai,t Area of stratum i in year t; ha

i 1, 2, 3 …MWPS strata in the project scenario

t 1, 2, 3 … t* years elapsed since the project start date

Excavation is not a project activity. Therefore, GHGWPS-excav-CO2,i is not included.

3.2.2.5.1.2 CO2 emissions from soil – in situ

At the project start date, the average carbon stock within the top metre of soil is 163.6 t C ha-1 (range: 82.9
– 206.2 t C ha-1; standard error: 17.8 t C ha-1), as for the baseline scenario (see Section 3.2.1.5.5).

SOC is set to increase upon the establishment of a mangrove tree cover. In an initial inventory of a
chronosequence of mangrove plantations mostly outside of the Project Area, dating from 5 to 30+ years
ago, a trend in the increase of SOC can be observed, resulting in an estimated 1.90 t C ha-1yr-1 based on
the trend line. The project will further investigate if a statistically reliable SOC accumulation rate can be
derived based on feasible monitoring procedures, using the following equation from VM0033:

GHGBSL-soil-CO2,i,t = 44/12 × -(CBSL-soil,i,t – CBSL-soil,i,,(t-T)) / T (36)

For this PD, the ex-ante calculations are conservatively based on the application of the default value
provided in VM0033.

Figure 20. Lefthand side: SOC (t C ha -1) in the top 1 m of bare soil and under various mangrove covers
plantations within the Project Zone (the mean is represented by an X; the median is represented by the
line within the box; an outlier is represented by a point outside of the box). Righthand side: SOC in 1 m
cores across a chronosequence of mangrove plantations within the Project Zone (age represents the
midpoint in each age bracket).

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Default factor

In the absence of suitable local data, the default factor for SOC accumulation is used:

GHGWPS-insitu-CO2,i,t = -1.46 t C ha-1 yr-1 × 44/12 (33)61

The default value, adjusted for allochthonous carbon, is conservatively used at the start of this project. The
above default factor may only be applied to areas with a crown or vegetation cover of at least 50%. For
areas with a crown or vegetation cover of less than 15%, this value may be assumed to be insignificant and
accounted for as zero. For areas with a crown or vegetation cover between 15 and 50%, a linear
interpolation may be applied.

In the Indus Delta, the mangrove plantations reach a crown cover of at least 50% after 6-7 years (see
Appendix 12). Since some variability exists, we apply a conservative canopy development, with 15% cover
reached after 5 years and 50% cover reached after 10 years. A linear interpolation is applied between 5
and 10 years.

Deduction for allochthonous carbon

Deductionalloch = GHGWPS-insitu-CO2,i,t × (%Calloch /100) (38)

Where:

Deductionalloch Deduction from CO2 sequestration in the SOC pool to account for the percentage of
the carbon stock that is derived from allochthonous soil organic carbon; t CO 2e ha-1
yr-1

GHGWPS-insitu-CO2,i,t CO2 emissions from the tidal wetland SOC pool of in-situ soils in the project scenario
in stratum i in year t; t CO2e yr-1

%Calloch Percentage of the total soil organic carbon that is allochthonous; %

i 1, 2, 3 …MBSL strata in the project scenario

t 1, 2, 3 … t* years elapsed since the start of the project activity

This equation applies if GHGWPS-insitu-CO2,i,t is negative (sequestration). Since the project scenario involves
the accumulation of SOC due to mangrove reforestation, a deduction for allochthonous carbon is required.

To account for allochthonous carbon, the generalised estimate of the deduction due to allochthonous
carbon was used from Needelman et al. (2018)62:

%Deductionalloch = 213.17 × %C -1.184

61
Suffixes adjusted for the project scenario
62
y = 213.17x-1.184 from Needelman, B. A., I. M. Emmer, S. Emmett-Mattox, S. Crooks, J. P. Megonigal,
D. Myers, M. P. J. Oreska, and K. McGlathery. 2018. The science and policy of the verified carbon
standard methodology for tidal wetland and seagrass restoration. Estuaries and Coasts 41(8): 2159-2171.

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where %Deductionalloch is the percentage of allochthonous carbon deduction as a percentage of total C,

and %C is the percent of soil C. This equation thus relates %C in the soil to the estimated proportion that is
allochthonous. The average %C from 8-m-long cores collected within eight natural dense mangroves from
within the Indus Delta was used. The average value from subsamples collected below the rooting zone is
2.02% (standard deviation: 0.62; standard error: 0.1; 95% confidence interval: 0.43), which results in a
92.7% deduction. Therefore, Deductionalloch equals 1.35 t C yr-1, or 4.95 t CO2e yr-1.

Accounting for Deductionalloch, the CO2 emission from soil is -0.40 t CO2e yr-1 (-0.11 t C yr-1) if the vegetation
cover requirement of 50% or more is met. This value is comparable to measured soil C accumulation rates
calculated for arid mangroves in the United Arab Emirates (Crooks et al. 2020 63), where the species
composition is comprised of short statured (<5 m) A. marina and the soil conditions are comparable to the
Indus Delta (e.g., low soil organic carbon; high dry bulk density). The average soil C accretion rate based on
ten cores collected from five sites was -0.58 t C ha-1 yr-1 (range: -0.25 – -1.11 t C ha-1 yr-1; standard error:
0.1) using 210Pb radiometric dating, which, accounting for allochthonous carbon, is -0.115 t C ha-1 yr-1 (-
0.42 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1).

Table 18. GHG emissions from the SOC pool according to vegetation cover
development in the project scenario.

Default accumulation rate

Vegetation cover ((1.46 × vegetation cover) GHGWPS-insitu-CO2,i,t
Year
% – Deductionalloch) t CO2 ha-1 yr-1
t C ha-1

1 <15 0 0

2 <15 0 0

3 <15 0 0

4 <15 0 0

5 15 -0.032 -0.117

6 22 -0.047 -0.172

7 29 -0.062 -0.227

63
Crooks, S., K. Poppe, A. Rubilla, and J. Rybczyk. 2020. Mangrove Soil Carbon Accumulation of the
United Arab Emirates: Trial Application, Report by and AGEDI/Environment Agency Abu Dhabi,
Silvestrum Climate Associates and Western Washington University.

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8 36 -0.077 -0.281

9 43 -0.092 -0.336

10 50 -0.107 -0.391

>10 >50 -0.107 -0.391

3.2.2.5.1.3 CH4 emissions from soil – in situ

CH4 emissions from soil in the baseline scenario are not accounted for, as CH 4 emissions do not increase
in the project scenario compared to the baseline scenario, see 3.2.1.1

3.2.2.5.1.4 N2O emissions from soil – in situ

N2O emissions from soil in the baseline scenario are not accounted for, as N 2O emissions do not increase
in the project scenario compared to the baseline scenario, see 3.2.1.1. Furthermore, no changes in
agricultural land use because of the project is expected. Due to salinisation of the land surrounding the
Indus Delta, agricultural production is decreasing in the area and subsequently less fertiliser is being used
(see Sections 3.1.3, 3.1.4).

3.2.2.5.1.5 CO2 emissions from soil – eroded

As outlined in Section 3.1.3, sea level rise will over a period of 100 years cause erosion and a loss of
wetland. The loss of wetland area has been calculated with 5-year time steps. For each time step, the
release of carbon and emission of CO 2 to the atmosphere from the eroded wetland soil has been calculated
using the following equation.

GHGWPS-eroded-CO2,i,t = 44/12 × CWPS-eroded,i,t × C%WPS-emitted,i,t / 100 (48)

CWPS-eroded,i,t = C%WPS-eroded,i,t × BD × Depth_eWPS,i,t x 10 (49)

Where:

GHGWPS-eroded-CO2,i,t CO2 emissions from the eroded tidal wetland SOC pool in the project scenario in
stratum i in year t ; t CO2e ha-1 yr-1

CWPS-eroded,i,t Soil organic carbon stock in eroded tidal wetland soil material in the project scenario
in stratum i in year t; t C ha-1

C%WPS-emitted,i,t Organic carbon loss due to oxidation, as a percentage of C mass present in eroded
tidal wetland soil material in the project scenario in stratum i in year t; %

C%WPS-eroded,i,t Percentage of carbon of tidal wetland soil material eroded in the project scenario; %

BD Soil bulk density; kg m-3

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Depth_eWPS,i,t Depth of the eroded area from the surface to the surface prior to erosion in the
project scenario in stratum i in year t; m

Depth_eWPS,i,t is the same as in the baseline scenario, as outlined in Section 3.2.1.5.5.

The Indus Delta is currently in an erosive state (see Section 3.1.3.2 for details) and erosion is occurring
with or without the presence of mangroves. For the ex-post assessment at verification, CWPS-eroded will be
calculated as the SOC at the project start date increased with the accumulation since year of plantation as
outlined in Section 3.2.2.5.1.2 and Table 16. For the ex-ante estimate of CWPS-eroded, it is conservatively
assumed that the eroded planting polygon has a carbon stock similar to what would have accumulated at
t = 100, which gives a greater loss of carbon due to erosion.

The procedure for quantifying C%WPS-emitted,i,t is the same as for the baseline scenario, see Section 3.2.1.5.5.

Based on Expert Judgement64 it is confirmed that connectivity occurs between eroded wetland and the
river-estuary system.

The area of mangrove plantations eroded every 5 years was calculated as outlined in Section 3.1.3.

3.2.2.6 Net GHG emissions from fuel use in the project scenario

Fossil fuel emissions in the baseline are conservatively not accounted for. Where emissions from the use
of vehicles and mechanical equipment in WRC project activities are above de minimis as compared to the
baseline scenario, such emissions must be estimated by applying CDM AR Tool 5 (Estimation of GHG
emissions related to fossil fuel combustion in A/R CDM project activities). The following equation is used:

GHGWPS-fuel,i,t = ETFC,y (84)

Where:

GHGWPS-fuel,i,t GHG emissions from fossil fuel use in the project scenario in stratum i in year t; t CO2e
yr-1

ETFC,y CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion during the year y; t CO2 (derived from
application of AR Tool 5 (Estimation of GHG emissions related to fossil fuel combustion
in A/R CDM project activities); calculations are done for each stratum i)

i 1, 2, 3 …MWPS strata in the project scenario

t 1, 2, 3, … t* years elapsed since the project start date

The application of the tool yields an outcome of 482 t CO 2 yr-1, see Table 19.

64
Dr Steve Crooks: Wetland Scientist at Silvestrum Climate Associate; Dr Ibrahim Zia: Sectional Head of
Physical Oceanography Department, National Institute of Oceanography, Pakistan

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AR Tool 4 (Tool for testing significance of GHG emissions in A/R CDM project activities) states that the sum
of decreases in carbon pools and increases in emissions that may be neglected shall be less than 5% of
the total decreases in carbon pools and increases in emissions, or less than 5% of net anthropogenic
removals by sinks, whichever is lower.

The following equation applies:

(eq. nr. not provided)

Where:

RCEi Relative contribution of each source i to the sum of project and leakage GHG emissions

Ei GHG emissions by sources of project and possible decreases in carbon pools and leakage
emissions i

i Index for individual sources of project and leakage GHG emissions

I total number of sources considered

Fossil fuel emissions are the only emissions source considered in the assessment of de minimis emissions
sources in the project scenario. Comparing these with the results from carbon sequestration in biomass
and soil (Sections 3.2.2.4 and 3.2.2.5, respectively) shows that the fuel emissions are 1.75% of net
removals in 2023, declining to 0.21% in 2024, 0.06% in 2025 and then to less than 0.03% in subsequent
years – all less than 5%. Therefore, fossil fuel emissions are a de minimis emissions source (Table 19).

Table 19. Fossil fuel emissions as a percentage of net GHG

removals.

Year GHGWPS-biomass + GHGWPS-fuel %

GHGWPS-soil

2023 27,565 481.8 1.75

2024 233,554 481.8 0.21

2025 868,251 481.8 0.06

2026+ 2,144,516 481.8 0.02

3.2.3 Leakage Emissions (VCS 2.5, 3.2, 3.6, 3.15, 4.3)

The project meets the applicability conditions and requirements set out by VM0033 (see Sections 3.2.3.1
and 3.2.3.2 below), therefore:

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GHGLK = 0.

3.2.3.1 Activity-shifting leakage and market leakage

Meeting the applicability conditions of methodology VM0033 ensure that activity-shifting leakage and
market leakage do not occur. This project meets these applicability conditions, as justified in Section 3.1.2.

Although this is an ARR/RWE project activity it is worthwhile to outline the wider project activities
implemented outside the ARR/RWE Project Area to avoid activity-shifting and market-effect leakage.

Table 20. Leakage management activities undertaken by the wider REDD+ project.

Leakage Description
Management Activity

Improved and Livestock is an important component in the livelihoods of local

Intensified livestock communities, and they have been using mangroves as a grazing land as
farming well as for cutting of mangroves branches, leaves and propagules as
fodder. These communities will be trained to practice rotational grazing,
keep livestock numbers according to the carrying capacity of the site,
and avoid areas where there is risk of trampling of young natural re-
generation or newly planted area. Other associated activities include
provision of alternative sources of livestock fodder through promotion of
multi-purpose fodder tree species outside the Project Area,
enhancement and diversification of their income sources through
training of the communities in climate-smart livestock management
practices, and vaccination of livestock to prevent losses on account of
death of animals by various diseases. For the latter set of activities,
linkages will be developed by Sindh Forest Department with Livestock
Department.

Promotion of The project will promote the planting of fast-growing multi-purpose tree
Agroforestry species that will provide alternative sources of timber, fuelwood, fodder
and income to the local communities.

Promotion of fuel- Fuel-efficient stoves are one means of saving on the usage of wood as a
efficient cooking source of energy. Their wider use by the local communities alongside
stoves other alternative sources of energy will reduce the community demand
for mangrove wood as a source of wood.

Promotion of Local communities use mangrove and other wood as a source of energy.
alternative energy To meet their energy needs, the project promotes the planting of other
sources tree species for fuelwood purposes in the adjoining areas outside the
Project Area so as to cater to their energy needs. It also promotes the
use of solar energy and other energy sources besides various energy

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conservation measures.

Awareness raising Awareness raising about mangroves and coastal ecosystems among the
various stakeholder groups is an important project objective. Toward this
end it is implementing a number of activities. These include awareness
creation about the various ecosystem services of mangroves and coastal
ecosystems(provisioning services such as spawning sites and nursery
habitats for various types of fishes and shrimps, production of various
non-wood products, etc.; regulating services such as role in climate
change mitigation and adaptation, regulation of the harmful impacts of
tsunamis, etc.; supporting services such as habitat provision for various
types of wildlife; and information, cultural and recreational services),
best practices in the conservation, development and sustainable
management of mangroves, and mobilisation of financial resources for
their conservation and sustainable development. Among other
stakeholder groups, an important target groups for these awareness
raising activities are the various agents of deforestation and forest
degradation such as local communities and immigrants who could
potentially shift their harmful deforestation and forest degradation
activities to the leakage belt.

Trainings and Training and capacity building of local communities and other
capacity building stakeholder groups is crucial for mangrove conservation, development
and sustainable management both in the Project Area. Training activities
among others will include training in various mangrove rehabilitation and
development activities (propagules collection and storage, nurseries
raising, mangroves planting and after-care, etc.), eco-friendly mangrove
ecosystem management, mangroves and coastal ecosystems
biodiversity conservation, participatory planning, implementation,
monitoring and evaluation of mangroves conservation and development
interventions, rapid rural appraisal and community development
measures, etc.

Effective law Effective law enforcement is an important policy tool alongside economic
enforcement incentives, awareness creation, training and capacity and social capital
development. The project therefore lays emphasis on and has provisions
for effective law enforcement so as to avoid the chances of activity
shifting. These measures include effective enforcement of mangrove
stewardship agreements, mobilisation of community and other
stakeholders in support of mangroves conservation and sustainable
management, more effective fores t surveillance, intelligence gathering,
forest offenders’ apprehension, prosecution, and early and vigorous
adjudication of forest offence cases.

Mangrove Stewardship Agreements have been executed with local

communities to involve them in the protection of newly planted

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mangrove areas as well protection of existing mangrove forests.

3.2.3.2 Ecological leakage

As set out in VM0033, the tidal range and sediment delivery experienced by wetlands outside the Project
Area must remain within the system tolerance. To guide this assessment, Table 21 outlines avoidance
criteria related to a variety of processes that may occur outside the Project Area due to an inappropriate
project design.

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Table 21. Processes Associated with Ecological Leakage Outside Project Boundary, Related Criteria for
their Avoidance and Project Justification.

Ecological leakage process outside project Avoidance criterion and project justification
boundary

Lowering water table that causes increased Maintain wetland conditions (e.g., converting from
soil carbon oxidation impounded water to a wetland does not cause soil
oxidation)

Justification: The project does not alter the

hydrology of the Indus Delta and adjacent lands.

Lowering water table that causes increased No conversion of non-seagrass wetland to open
N2O emissions water

Justification: The project does not alter the

hydrology of the Indus Delta and adjacent lands.

Raising water table that causes increased No conversion of non-wetland to wetland

CH4 emissions
Justification: The project does not alter the
hydrology of the Indus Delta and adjacent lands.
Where such a conversion occurs, it is due to sea
level rise.

Raising water table that causes decreased No causation of vegetated to non-vegetated (or
vegetation production that causes poorly vegetated) conditions
decreased new soil carbon sequestration
Justification: The project does not alter the
hydrology of the Indus Delta and adjacent lands.
Therefore, it does not cause an alteration of
vegetation cover outside the Project Area. The
presence of mangrove trees inside the Project Area
will slow tidal flows and increase sediment
deposition reducing sediment that flows into the
sea, which does not lead to a decreased carbon
sequestration outside the Project Area.

3.2.4 Estimated GHG Emission Reductions and Carbon Dioxide Removals (VCS, 3.15, 4.1)

The total net GHG emission reductions from the ARR/RWE project activity are calculated as follows:

NERRWE = GHGBSL – GHGWPS + FRP – GHGLK (84)

Where:

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NERRWE65 Net CO2e emission reductions from the RWE project activity; t CO2e
GHGBSL Net CO2e emissions in the baseline scenario; t CO 2e
GHGWPS Net CO2e emissions in the project scenario; t CO 2e
FRP Fire Reduction Premium (net CO2e emission reductions from organic soil combustion due
to rewetting and fire management); t CO2e
GHGLK Net CO2e emissions due to leakage; t CO 2e

The FRP is not relevant for this project because organic soils and fire are not present.

Estimation of uncertainty

The adjusted value for NERt to account for uncertainty is calculated as:

adjusted_NERt = NERt x (100% - NERERROR + allowable_uncert) (92)

Where:

adjusted_NERt Net GHG emission reductions in year t adjusted to account for uncertainty; t CO 2e

NERt Total net GHG emission reductions from the project activity up to year t; t CO2e

NERERROR Total uncertainty for WRC project activity; %

allowable_uncert Allowable uncertainty; 20% or 30% at a 90% or 95% confidence level, respectively; %

For the baseline scenario, there is no uncertainty associated with key variables, because they are either de
minimis or based on default values, see Table 22.

For the project scenario, uncertainties for most variables will be quantified in the monitoring plan. The
determination of uncertainties of certain variable is conditional on the method chosen.

Table 22. Uncertainty analysis for baseline and project scenario.

Variable Uncertainty Comment

Baseline scenario

Ai,t N/A Same as in project scenario; however, resulting

uncertainty in this variable is negligible considering that
baseline emissions are de minimis

GHGBSL-biomass N/A Variable is de minimis (removals) or conservatively not

accounted for (baseline degradation)

65
Also stands for NERARR/RWE

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GHGBSL-insitu-CO2,i,t N/A Variable is de minimis (removals) or conservatively not

accounted for (baseline degradation)

C%BSL-emitted,i,t N/A Default value from specified CPDE

CBSL-soil,i,t=0 Eight cores were collected, with an average of 163.6 t

C ha-1. The standard deviation is 43.7 and the 95% CI
is 30.3. The uncertainty is calculated at 9.3% (100 *
(95% CI / 2) / average)

GHGBSL-eroded-CO2,i,t N/A Based on CBSL-soil,i,t=0 and areas eroded

GHGBSL-soil-CH4,i,t N/A Same as in project scenario (Section 3.2.1.5.3)

GHGBSL-soil-N2O,i,t N/A Same as in project scenario (Section 3.2.1.5.4)

Project scenario (ex ante) – not monitored

Deductionalloch N/A A representative sample size was used to determine

this value

GHGWPSL-soil-CH4,i,t N/A Same as in baseline scenario

GHGWPSL-soil-N2O,i,t N/A Same as in baseline scenario

GHGWPS-fuel,i,t N/A Variable is de minimis

Project scenario (ex post)

Ai,t To be provided in monitoring report (Section 3.3.3.2)

GHGWPS-biomass To be provided in monitoring report (Section 3.3.3.3)

CBSL-soil,i,t To be provided in monitoring report – If method is

based on field-collected data (Section 3.3.3.4)

Vegetation cover To be provided in monitoring report – If method is

based on default value (Section 3.3.3.4)

Maximum quantity of GHG emission reductions that may be claimed from the biomass and SOC pools

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For projects claiming reductions of baseline GHG emissions, the maximum quantity of GHG emission
reductions that may be claimed from the SOC pool is limited to the difference between the soil organic
carbon stock in the project scenario and baseline scenario at the 100-year mark.

However, the project does not claim reductions from baseline emissions, only removals due to carbon
sequestration in biomass and soil.

The project does account for biomass and SOC losses due to sea level rise. For projects where sea level
rise may cause a loss of tidal wetland and associated biomass and/or soil organic carbon stocks, the
maximum quantity of GHG emission reductions or removals that may be claimed from the biomass and soil
organic carbon pool is limited to the net GHG benefit generated by the project 100 years after its start date,
as follows:

NERRWE-max = NERRWE at t = 100 (86)

Where:

NERRWE-max Maximum net CO2e emission reductions or removals that can be claimed from the RWE
project activity at any point in time during the crediting period; t CO 2e
NERRWE Net CO2e emission reductions from the RWE project activity; t CO2e

In-situ net GHG emissions in the baseline scenario are set to zero, see Section 3.2.1.5.2. Therefore, the
carbon stock in the project scenario at t = 100 determines the maximum quantity. This quantity NERRWE-max
equals 120,829,435 tCO2e, see Figure 19 and Table 23. This amount is predicted to be reached in project
year 33, or calendar year 2056.

Estimation of non-permanence buffer and VCUs

The number of verified carbon units (VCUs) is calculated as:

( )
VCUt 2 = adjusted _ NERt 2 - adjusted _ NERt1 - Bufferwt 2
(93)

Where:

VCUt2 Number of VCUs in year t2

adjusted_NER t1 Total net GHG emission reductions from the project activity up to year t1 adjusted to
account for uncertainty; t CO 2e

adjusted_NERt2 Total net GHG emission reductions from the project activity up to year t2 adjusted to
account for uncertainty; t CO 2e

Bufferwt2 Number of buffer credits to be contributed to the AFOLU pooled buffer account in year
t2

( )
Bufferwt 2 = NERstock,t 2 - NERstock,t1 ´ Buffer %t 2
(94)

Where:

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Bufferwt2 Number of buffer credits to be contributed to the AFOLU pooled buffer account in year
t2

NERstock, t1 Net GHG emission reductions from the project activity up to year t1, discarding non-
CO2 emissions from soil and biomass burning and emissions from fossil fuel use; t
CO2e

NERstock, t2 Net GHG emission reductions from the project activity up to year t2, discarding non-
CO2 emissions from soil and biomass burning and emissions from fossil fuel use; t
CO2e

Buffer%t2 Percentage of buffer credits to be contributed to the AFOLU pooled buffer account in
year t2; %

The percentage of buffer credits to be contributed to the AFOLU pooled buffer account has been determined
by applying the latest version of the VCS AFOLU Non-Permanence Risk Tool, see Appendix 13.

State the non-permanence risk rating (%) 10%

Has the non-permanence risk report ☒ Yes ☐ No

been attached as either an appendix or a
separate document?

For ARR and IFM projects with N/A

harvesting, state, in tCO2e, the Long-
term Average (LTA).

Has the LTA been updated based on N/A

monitored data, if applicable?

State, in tCO2e, the expected total GHG N/A

benefit to date.

Is the number of GHG credits issued N/A

below the LTA?

Table 23. Net GHG Emissions Removals

Vintage Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated

period baseline project leakage buffer pool total removal
removals removals emissions allocation VCU
(tCO2e) (tCO2e) (tCO2e) (tCO2e)

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issuance
(tCO2e)66

2023 - 31,503 0 3,150 28,353

2024 - 179,160 0 17,916 161,244

2025 - 517,388 0 51,739 465,649

2026 - 842,287 0 84,229 758,058

2027 - 1,744,999 0 174,500 1,570,499

2028 - 2,552,693 0 255,269 2,297,423

2029 - 3,438,340 0 343,834 3,094,506

2030 - 4,384,786 0 438,479 3,946,308

2031 - 4,873,289 0 487,329 4,385,960

2032 - 5,906,904 0 590,690 5,316,214

2033 - 6,329,702 0 632,970 5,696,732

2034 - 6,561,329 0 656,133 5,905,196

2035 - 6,639,109 0 663,911 5,975,198

2036 - 6,183,316 0 618,332 5,564,985

2037 - 6,458,621 0 645,862 5,812,759

2038 - 6,252,196 0 625,220 5,626,977

2039 - 5,995,551 0 599,555 5,395,996

2040 - 5,706,186 0 570,619 5,135,567

2041 - 3,725,558 0 372,556 3,353,003

2042 - 5,077,198 0 507,720 4,569,478

66
Expected VCU issuance to year t

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2043 - 4,755,256 0 475,526 4,279,730

2044 - 4,436,801 0 443,680 3,993,121

2045 - 4,126,211 0 412,621 3,713,590

2046 - 2,093,772 0 209,377 1,884,395

2047 - 3,540,326 0 354,033 3,186,294

2048 - 3,268,659 0 326,866 2,941,794

2049 - 3,012,482 0 301,248 2,711,233

2050 - 2,772,155 0 277,216 2,494,940

2051 - 803,662 0 80,366 723,296

2052 - 2,338,815 0 233,881 2,104,933

2053 - 2,145,085 0 214,508 1,930,576

2054 - 1,965,901 0 196,590 1,769,311

2055 - 1,800,576 0 180,058 1,620,518

2056 - (104,631) 0 0 0

2057 - 474,247 0 47,425 426,822

2058 - 0 0 0 0

2059 - 0 0 0 0

2060 - 0 0 0 0

2061 - 0 0 0 0

2062 - 0 0 0 0

2063 - 0 0 0 0

2064 - 0 0 0 0

2065 - 0 0 0 0

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2066 - 0 0 0 0

2067 - 0 0 0 0

2068 - 0 0 0 0

2069 - 0 0 0 0

2070 - 0 0 0 0

2071 - 0 0 0 0

2072 - 0 0 0 0

2073 - 0 0 0 0

2074 - 0 0 0 0

2075 - 0 0 0 0

2076 - 0 0 0 0

2077 - 0 0 0 0

2078 - 0 0 0 0

2079 - 0 0 0 0

2080 - 0 0 0 0

2081 - 0 0 0 0

2082 - 0 0 0 0

2083 - 0 0 0 0

Figure 21. Summary of net GHG emissions in tCO2e since the project start date in 2023. ARR: Net GHG
removals as a result of mangrove reforestation; LOSS: Carbon loss in biomass and soil as a result of

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erosion due to sea level rise; GAIN: Net removals as a result of mangrove establishment in new mangrove
habitats due to sea level rise.

Table 24. NERRWE, buffer withholding and VCUs, cumulative to year t

Estimated buffer pool Estimated total removal

Vintage period NER RWE67
allocation (tCO2e) VCU issuance (tCO2e)

2023 - -

2024
31,503 3,150 28,353

2025
210,664 21,066 189,597

2026
728,051 72,805 655,246

67
Cumulative to NERRWE-max

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2027
1,570,338 157,034 1,413,304

2028
3,315,337 331,534 2,983,803

2029
5,868,030 586,803 5,281,227

2030
9,306,369 930,637 8,375,732

2031
13,691,156 1,369,116 12,322,040

2032
18,564,445 1,856,445 16,708,001

2033
24,471,349 2,447,135 22,024,214

2034
30,801,051 3,080,105 27,720,946

2035
37,362,381 3,736,238 33,626,142

2036
44,001,490 4,400,149 39,601,341

2037
50,184,806 5,018,481 45,166,326

2038
56,643,427 5,664,343 50,979,084

2039
62,895,623 6,289,562 56,606,061

2040
68,891,174 6,889,117 62,002,057

2041
74,597,360 7,459,736 67,137,624

2042
78,322,919 7,832,292 70,490,627

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2043
83,400,117 8,340,012 75,060,105

2044
88,155,373 8,815,537 79,339,835

2045
92,592,174 9,259,217 83,332,956

2046
96,718,385 9,671,838 87,046,546

2047
98,812,157 9,881,216 88,930,941

2048
102,352,483 10,235,248 92,117,235

2049
105,621,143 10,562,114 95,059,029

2050
108,633,625 10,863,362 97,770,262

2051
111,405,780 11,140,578 100,265,202

2052
112,209,442 11,220,944 100,988,498

2053
114,548,257 11,454,826 103,093,431

2054
116,693,341 11,669,334 105,024,007

2055
118,659,242 11,865,924 106,793,318

2056
120,459,818 12,045,982 108,413,837

2057
120,355,188 12,035,519 108,319,669

2058
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

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2059
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2060
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2061
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2062
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2063
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2064
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2065
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2066
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2067
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2068
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2069
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2070
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2071
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2072
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2073
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2074
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

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2075
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2076
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2077
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2078
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2079
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2080
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2081
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2082
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

2083
120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

3.3 Monitoring

3.3.1 Data and Parameters Available at Validation (VCS, 3.16)

The values provided are used to quantify the estimated reductions and removals for the project
crediting period in Section 3.2.4 above. Data and parameters to be monitored during the
operation of the project are included in Section 3.3.2 (Data and Parameters Monitored) below.

Data / parameter ABSL,i

Data unit Ha

Description Area of baseline stratum i (in year t)

Source of data See Section 3.1.3

Value applied See Table 16

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Justification of choice of See Section 3.1.3 – Project Boundary – for description of

data or description of measurement methods and procedures applied
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Determination of baseline scenario

Comments N/A

Data / parameter ∆CTREE_BSL,t

Data unit t CO 2e yr-1

Description Change in carbon stock in baseline tree biomass within the

Project Area in year t

Source of data See Section 3.2.1.4

Value applied 0

Justification of choice of See section 3.2.1.4 – Net carbon stock change in biomass
data or description of carbon pools in the baseline scenario
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Determination of baseline scenario

Comments N/A

Data / parameter CFi

Data unit t C t-1 d.m.

Description Carbon fraction of dry matter in t C t -1 d.m. for species j

Source of data Kauffman, J.B. and D.C. Donato. 2012 Protocols for the
measurement, monitoring and reporting of structure, biomass
and carbon stocks in mangrove forests. Working Paper 86.
CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia.

Value applied 0.48 t C t-1 d.m. for aboveground biomass

0.39 t C t-1 d.m. for belowground biomass

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Justification of choice of These values are deemed to be defensible default values for
data or description of carbon fraction.
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Comments N/A

Data / parameter CBSL-soil,i,t

Data unit t C ha-1

Description Soil organic carbon stock in the baseline scenario in stratum i in

year t

Source of data See Section 3.2.1.5

Value applied 163.6 t C ha-1

Justification of choice of See Section 3.2.1.5 – Net GHG emissions from soil in the
data or description of baseline scenario
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Determination of baseline scenario

Comments N/A

Data / parameter GHGBSL-insitu-CO2,i,t

Data unit t CO 2e ha-1 yr-1

Description CO2 emissions from the SOC pool of in-situ soils in the baseline
scenario in stratum i in year t

Source of data See Section 3.2.1.5.2

Value applied 0

Justification of choice of See Section 3.2.1.5.2 – CO 2 emissions from soil – in situ

data or description of

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measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Determination of baseline scenario

Comments N/A

Data / parameter GHGWPS-soil-CO2,i,t

Data unit t CO 2e ha-1 yr-1

Description CO2 emissions from the SOC pool in the project scenario in
stratum i in year t

Source of data See Section 3.2.2.5.1.2

Value applied -5.35

Justification of choice of See Section 3.2.2.5.1.2 – CO 2 emissions from soil – in situ

data or description of
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Comments N/A

Data / parameter %C

Data unit %

Description Percentage of soil organic C

Source of data See Section 3.2.2.5.1.2

Value applied 2.02

Justification of choice of See Section 3.2.2.5.1.2 – CO 2 emissions from soil – in situ

data or description of
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

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Comments This value is used to calculate the deduction from allochthonous

carbon.

Data / parameter Deduction alloch

Data unit t CO2e ha -1 yr-1

Description Deduction from CO 2 emissions from the SOC pool to account for
the percentage of the carbon stock that is derived from
allochthonous soil organic carbon

Source of data See Section 3.2.2.5.1.2

Value applied 4.95

Justification of choice of See Section 3.2.2.5.1.2 – CO2 emissions from soil – in situ
data or description of
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Comments N/A

Data / parameter GHGWPS-fuel,i,t

Data unit t CO2e yr-1

Description GHG emissions from fossil fuel use in the project scenario in
stratum i in year t

Source of data See Section 3.2.2.6

Value applied 482

Justification of choice of See Section 3.2.2.6

data or description of
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Comments N/A

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Data / parameter allowable_uncert

Data unit %

Description Allowable uncertainty; 20% or 30% at a 90% or 95% confidence

level, respectively

Source of data See Section 3.2.2.6

Value applied N/A

Justification of choice of N/A

data or description of
measurement methods
and procedures applied

Purpose of data Calculation of net GHG emissions reductions

Comments N/A

3.3.2 Data and Parameters Monitored (VCS, 3.16)

The values provided are used to quantify the estimated reductions and removals for the project
crediting period.

Data / parameter ∆CTREE_PRO,i,t

Data unit t CO 2e yr-1

Description Change in carbon stock in trees in stratum i during the period

between two points of time t 1 and t2

Source of data Derived from application of AR Tool 14 using data collected in

the Project Area

Description of
measurement methods
and procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.3 – Estimation of tree carbon stocks
applied

Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

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Value applied Variable depending on year and stratum

Monitoring equipment See Section 3.3.3.3

QA/QC procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.6

applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Calculation method See Section 3.3.3.3

Comments N/A

Data / parameter Crown or vegetation cover

Data unit %

Description Proportion of an area covered by the crowns of live trees

Source of data See Section 3.3.3.3

Description of See Section 3.3.3.3 – Estimation of tree carbon stocks

measurement methods
and procedures to be
applied

Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

Value applied Variable depending on year and stratum

Monitoring equipment See Section 3.3.3.3

QA/QC procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.6

applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

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Calculation method See Section 3.3.3.3

Comments Provide any additional comments

Data / parameter At,i

Data unit Ha

Description Area of project stratum i (in year t)

Source of data Delineation of strata using a Geographic Information System

(GIS), integrating GPS data collected in the field.

Description of See Section 3.3.3.3

measurement methods
and procedures to be
applied

Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

Value applied 27 plots per stratum

Monitoring equipment N/A

QA/QC procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.6

applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Calculation method Equation 2 from CDM AR Tool 3 (Calculation of the number of

sample plots for measurements within A/R CDM project
activities)

Comments N/A

Data / parameter N

Data unit Dimensionless

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Description Number of sample plots required for estimation of biomass

stocks within the project boundary

Source of data Derived from Equation 2 from CDM AR Tool 3 using field data

Description of See Section 3.3.3.3

measurement methods
and procedures to be
applied

Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

Value applied Variable depending on stratum

Monitoring equipment N/A

QA/QC procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.6

applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Calculation method Equation 2 from CDM AR Tool 3 (Calculation of the number of

sample plots for measurements within A/R CDM project
activities)

Comments N/A

Data / parameter CWPS,soil,i,t

Data unit t C ha-1

Description Carbon stock in the project scenario in stratum i in year t

Source of data Equation 99 from VM0033 using data collected in the Project
Area

Description of See Section 3.3.3.4

measurement methods
and procedures to be
applied

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Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

Value applied Variable depending on stratum and year

Monitoring equipment See Section 3.3.3.4

QA/QC procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.6

applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Calculation method Equation 99 of VM0033

Comments N/A

Data / parameter %OM

Data unit %

Description Percentage of soil that is organic matter

Source of data Calculated from combustion of soil collected at various depths in

a given stratum in a given year

Description of See Section 3.3.3.4

measurement methods
and procedures to be
applied

Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

Value applied Variable depending on stratum and year

Monitoring equipment See Section 3.3.3.4

QA/QC procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.6

applied

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Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Calculation method See Section 3.3.3.4

Comments N/A

Data / parameter %Csoil

Data unit %

Description Percentage of soil organic C

Source of data Calculated from %OM derived from soil cores collected from the
Project Area

Description of See Section 3.3.3.4

measurement methods
and procedures to be
applied

Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

Value applied Variable depending on stratum and year

Monitoring equipment See Section 3.3.3.4

QA/QC procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.6

applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Calculation method See Section 3.3.3.4

Comments N/A

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Data / parameter BD

Data unit g cm-3

Description Dry bulk density

Source of data See Section 3.3.3.4

Description of See Section 3.3.3.4

measurement methods
and procedures to be
applied

Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

Value applied Variable depending on stratum and year

Monitoring equipment See Section 3.3.3.4

QA/QC procedures to be See Section 3.3.3.6

applied

Purpose of data Calculation of project emissions

Calculation method See Section 3.3.3.4

Comments N/A

Data / parameter NER

Data unit %

Description Total uncertainty for project activity

Source of data N/A

Description of N/A
measurement methods
and procedures to be
applied

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Frequency of Each monitoring period

monitoring/recording

Value applied N/A

Monitoring equipment N/A

QA/QC procedures to be N/A

applied

Purpose of data Calculation of net GHG emission reductions

Calculation method N/A

Comments N/A

3.3.3 Monitoring Plan (VCS, 3.16, 3.20)

The Sindh Forest Department, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination are staffed by qualified,
competent and experienced professionals who carry out monitoring of activities as per the requirements of
the VCS and CCB Standards. Policies are also in place for the oversight and accountability of monitoring
activities and procedure for handling non-conformances with the validated monitoring plan. These will be
made available to the VVB. An outline of the Caelum Environmental Solutions team organogram is given
below:

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The field teams for data collection comprise a team leader, resource manager, facilitator, measurement
taker (s), data recorder (s), and observer (s). These teams are responsible for all data collection. The project
has developed policies (given separately in SOPs) for oversight and accountability of monitoring activities
as well as procedures for handling non-conformances with the validated monitoring plan. It has methods
for measuring, recording, storing, aggregating, collating and reporting data and parameters set out in
Section 3.3.2 above.

The data management process of the project comprises the following major steps:

• Undertaking of field work and collection of field data as per specified SOP for data collection and
procurement
• Data entry
• Data QA/QC
• Data aggregation and development of descriptive statistics
• Data analysis and use of various analytic tools
• Data storage and archiving
• Data security and back-up
• Maintenance of source documents, means of verifications and support documents
• Data availability to verifiers and other stakeholders

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• Data handing over and taking over, in case of staff transfers

• Report preparation
The managers of various field units (GIS, community development, biodiversity and M&E) strictly adhere to
the SOPs for the conduct of field work, data recording, data entry, data quality, data analysis and report
preparation in line with the flow diagram below:

Field Data Data Data Data

Report
work recording entry quality analysis

3.3.3.1 Monitoring of project implementation

Once established, every plantation will have a unique identifier and a spreadsheet will be maintained with
all relevant plantation information: species planted and percent representation of each species, area of
the plantation, date(s) planted, and plantation strata (year). The boundaries of each plantation will be
delineated by walking the perimeter with a handheld GPS unit with tracks enabled.

Zoning: prior to commencement of planting activities, the entire area earmarked for planting is divided into
distinct zones based on the islands that are targeted for planting that year. For each of these zones, a crew
team is mobilized and trained to ensure its restoration promptly for maximum efficiency in achieving the
plantation target. This zoning allows tailored planting strategies to the unique characteristics of different
islands and areas, considering factors such as elevation and hydrology, soil type, climate, and existing
biodiversity.

Hectare-based planning: to ensure effective management and resource allocation, each zone is further
broken down into hectares or other suitable units. These smaller units become the basis for more granular
planning, allowing the project to allocate resources, track progress, and manage the planting process on a
manageable scale.

Weekly and daily planting targets: based on the characteristics of the designated planting units, weekly and
daily planting targets are established. These targets are designed to align with seasonal considerations,
climate variations, and other factors influencing successful afforestation or reforestation efforts. By
breaking down the overall goal into smaller timeframes, the ability to adapt and respond to changing
conditions is enhanced.

Technology integration: Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and other technologies are used to map
out planting units, assess optimal planting times, and monitor progress. This allows for real-time
adjustments to the planting plan based on factors like weather patterns and ecological feedback.

Community engagement: community engagement strategies are engaged to involve local communities in
the whole planting process. This involves allocating specific planting areas to local groups, driving a sense
of ownership, and ensuring sustainable, community-driven restoration and conservation efforts through the
mechanism of Mangrove Stewardship Agreements (MSAs).

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3.3.3.2 Delineation of strata in the Project Area

Once planting zones and islands are identified and selected for planting, the spatial coordinates for each
plantation are recorded with a GPS unit. Within the laboratory, the field team will hand delineate the
plantation area using GIS to plan for the extent of planting so that exact labour and planting material are
employed. Propagules are planted in a 3 x 3 m grid throughout the entire plantation area that is not
bifurcated by a channel 3 m or more. If a larger channel is present, it is not included in the area estimates.
Once planting is complete on that island, the GIS team along with field team measure the area by traversing
the plantation perimeter with a WAAS-enabled GPS unit. The GPS data are uploaded to a computer and a
GIS is used to delineate the plantation and calculate the area.

The total area planted each year, A WPS,i,t, is the sum of all plantations established in that stratum in year t.

There is inherent uncertainty associated with the delineation of stratum boundaries using GPS units. Unless
the plantation area is delineated using an RTK GPS, which has 2-3 cm accuracy, regular handheld units
have an accuracy of 2-5 m. To address this known uncertainty, two GPS units will be used in tandem when
the stratum boundary is walked and the tracks created will be compared using GIS analysis. Notably,
cellular devices do not accurately assess location in the Indus River Delta at the time of validation.
Therefore, the project will rely solely on GPS units. If variation between the tracks is observed, the average
distance between the two will be delineated.

3.3.3.3 Estimation of tree carbon stocks

Source of data

Field collected measurements of mangrove allometry will be used to quantify above- and belowground tree
carbon stocks.

Measurement methods and procedures

Tree carbon stocks will be sampled according to stratum, which is defined by the year that the area was
planted. Equation 2 from CDM AR Tool 3 (Calculation of the number of sample plots for measurements
within A/R CDM project activities) will be used to calculate the number of sample plots per stratum:
2
t VAL 2
n=( ) ∗ (∑ wi ∗ si )
E
i

Where:

n Number of sample plots required for estimation of biomass stocks within the project boundary;
dimensionless

tVAL Two-sided Student’s t-value at infinite degrees of freedom for the required confidence level;
dimensionless

E Acceptable margin of error (i.e., one-half the confidence interval) in estimation of biomass stock
within the project boundary; t d.m. (or t d.m. ha-1), i.e. in the units used for si

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wi Relative weight of the area of stratum i (i.e., the area of the stratum i divided by the Project Area);
dimensionless

si Estimated standard deviation of biomass stock in stratum i; t d.m. (or t d.m. ha -1)

i 1, 2, 3, … biomass stock estimation strata within the project boundary

The number of sample plots allocated to each stratum is calculated as:

wi ∗ si
ni = n ∗
∑i wi ∗ si

Where:

ni Number of sample plots allocated to stratum i; dimensionless

n Number of sample plots required for estimation of biomass stocks within the project boundary;
dimensionless

wi same as above

si same as above

i same as above

Assuming a 90% confidence interval and margin of error of 10%, a total of 278 plots are needed to be
sampled at each monitoring event, although this total will not be reached until all areas are planted. This
total is based on a standard deviation of mature mangrove biomass based on a survey conducted by the
Pakistan Forest Institute: 31.5 t d.m. ha-1. The number of sample plots allocated to each stratum is in Table
25 and this was calculated using the AR-AM-Tool-03-v2.1.0-A/R Methodological Tool for Calculation of the
number of sample plots for measurements within A/R CDM project activities (Version 02.1.0). The tool
takes into consideration the targeted precision and the variability of the biomass stock being estimated.
Targeted precision is specified by VERRA Methodology VM0033 Methodology for Tidal Wetlands and
Seagrass Restoration. Using field data collected from the Indus Delta area, site variability, heterogeneity of
growth conditions, and mangrove productivity were therefore assessed based on the desired precision level
under the applicable tool and methodology. Nevertheless, the number of sample plots chosen will be
reassessed using available information during each validation.

As discussed in Section 3.2.2, the project is likely to add stratify by canopy cover as well as year planted
when this information becomes available. Mangrove canopy cover is described in Appendix 12. The
development of canopy cover is heterogenic in early years due to both assisted natural regeneration and
the growth patterns of various mangrove species. Limitations to remote sensing technologies further
compound this dynamic in early years. Therefore, stratification by canopy cover is likely to begin
approximately 6-8 years after years after each planting cohort is planted. The project estimates this would
begin in approximately 2030-2032.

Plot locations will be randomly located within each stratum using GIS, following CDM AR Tool 14 section
8.1.1 (Stratified random sampling). A 10 m spatial buffer will be created around the edge of each plantation
to guarantee that plots are located fully within a given plantation. Upon the field visit, if any plots fall in a
channel or mudflat (i.e., a location that was not originally planted within an area), the plot will be relocated

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to be 20 m away in the direction of where planting occurred. The coordinates of the plot centre will be
recorded using a GPS unit.

Table 25. Number of tree

biomass plots to be sampled
per monitoring event.

Year
# of sample
planted
plots
(stratum)

2023 13

2024 32

2025 43

2026 43

2027 43

2028 43

2029 43

2030 48

Total 308

Each plot will consist of an 8.92 m radius circular plot, which equates to a sampling area of 250 m 2. An
initial survey will occur to determine the canopy cover within a plot. Until total tree canopy is greater than
50%, all trees with more than 50% of the basal area falling within that plot will be measured. For all trees,
the following measurements will be made:

• Tree height (cm)

• Canopy width (cm)
• Depending on tree height, diameter at base (cm; 30 cm from the ground) or diameter at 30 cm
from last prop root or diameter at breast height 68; and
• Depending on tree height, diameter at base (30 cm from ground), or diameter at 30 cm from last
prop root, or diameter at breast height, if applicable (DBH; 1.30 from the ground or directly above

68
This measurement was made in planted mangroves within the United Arab Emirates when trees were
shorter than 1.3 m (Schile et al. 2017)

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the last prop root for R. mucronata).

If a tree has two dominant stems below DBH height, each stem will be treated as if it is a separate tree and
DBH and canopy width will be measured for both.

Once total tree canopy is greater than 50%, all trees with a height greater than 1.3 m will be measured
within the 8.92 m radius circle. In a nested plot with a radius of 5.64 m (which covers 100 m 2), all trees
with a height 1.3 m or less will have the following measurements collected:

• Tree height (cm)

• Canopy width (cm)
• Diameter at base (cm; 30 cm from the ground)
This sampling design is a modified version from Kauffman et al. (2020 69).

Monitoring equipment

In the field, a WAAS-enabled GPS unit will be used to navigate to the plots and to record plot locations.
Measuring tape will be used to delineate the circular plot and callipers will be used to measure the trees.
A digital camera will be used to document each plot.

In the laboratory, GIS software ArcGIS version 10.7.1 or greater will be used.

Calculation method

Above- and belowground mangrove biomass will be determined following CDM AR Tool 14 (Estimation of
carbon stocks and change in carbon stocks of trees and shrubs in A/R CDM project activities) using the
approach of differencing two independent stock estimations. Aboveground biomass will be determined
using species-specific allometric equations (See Tables 26 and 27).

Table 26. Allometric equations for aboveground biomass for mangrove species
found within the Indus Delta.

Species Equation Source

Avicennia marina Log (AG) = 2.14 *Log (CD) + 0.20 Mark Chatting, Lewis LeVay,
Mark Walton,Martin W. Skov,
Hillary Kennedy, Simon Wilson
and Ibrahim Al-Maslamani,

69
Kauffman, J.B., M.F. Adame, V.B. Arifanti, L.M. Schile‐Beers, et al. 2020. Total ecosystem carbon
stocks of mangroves across broad global environmental and physical gradients. Ecological Monographs.
90(2): e01405. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1405.

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202070

Rhizophora mucronata 0.8069 * DBH2.5154 Kirui et al. 200671

Where AG = Aboveground biomass; Log = Log to the base 10; CD = canopy diameter in metres, and DBH =
diameter at base (30 cm from ground), or 30 cm above last prop root, or diameter at breast height
(depending on tree height).

Both equations used are chosen based on factors such as planted (rather than naturally occurring)
mangroves, density, and overall soil salinity conditions. Based on the literature review these were assessed
to be the most important variables that affect the survival rate and growth rate of mangrove plants.
Specifically, the allometric equation of Kirui et al. 2006 used for Rhizophora mucronata species is sourced
from Gazi Bay, Kenya. In both cases (Indus Delta as well as Gazi Bay), these are planted mangroves, with
comparable tree density per hectare and overall dry season soil salinity conditions. As above, these two
variables play an important role in atmospheric carbon dioxide sequestration by mangrove plants and
therefore impact their biomass accumulation rate, making the allometric equation of Kirui et al. 2006 the
most appropriate. At the time of monitoring campaigns, a portion of mangrove plants will be too young to
obtain a breast height measurement (DBH). The VM0033 Methodology and associated carbon stock
assessment tool requires all mangrove plants existing in a sample plot to be measured and accounted for;
therefore, both DBH and diameter at base 30cm from the ground (D) have been included in the allometric
equation for Rhizophora mucronata.

Chronosequence data had been collected from 538 Rhizophora mucronata plants of different ages and
stem heights in construction of the Project’s growth model. Using the field-collected data, a relationship
has been established between DBH and D given the stem taper in the species. A difference of 0.5
centimetres on average was found to exist between the DBH and D stem diameter. As the Kirui et al. 2006
allometric equation was developed using DBH instead of D, this taper and form factor will be applied to
field-collected data to avoid over-estimation of biomass carbon stocks.

It should also be noted that references to canopy diameter pertain to measures of individual trees and not
the overall canopy cover percent of a given area. Canopy cover percent is not applicable to biomass carbon
stock assessment owing to the growth patterns of mangrove plants. Natural regeneration in the Project
Area is characterized by younger trees growing beneath planted trees with relatively larger crown diameters.
The planted trees overshadow the younger trees, meaning that a direct extrapolation of individual tree
measurements (the sum of the crown diameter of all trees in the plot) can result in a sum greater than the
plot area. There is also material variability in the canopy growth profile of the species found in the Project
Area, with three of the four species (Rhizophora mucronata, Ceriops tagal and Aegiceras corniculatum)
having erect and columnar crown profiles, meaning two plants with the same level of sequestered carbon

70
Chatting Mark, Lewis LeVay, Mark Walton, Martin W. Skov, Hillary Kennedy, Simon Wilson, and
Ibrahim Al-Maslamani. 2020. Mangrove carbon stocks and biomass partitioning in an extreme
environment. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 244.
7171
Kirui, B, J. G. Kairo, and M. Karachi. 2006. Allometric equations for estimating above ground biomass
of Rhizophora mucronata Lamk. (Rhizopheraceae) Mangroves at Gazi Bay, Kenya. Western Indian
Ocean Journal of Marine Science 5(1):27-34.

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may have different canopy covers. The applicable allometric equations, therefore, is the most applicable
method of capturing biomass accumulation variability.

In line with the VM0033 Methodology provisions, the canopy cover will, however, be used for determining
soil organic carbon eligibility as described below in Section 3.3.3.

Table 7. Allometric equations for belowground biomass for mangrove species found within
the Indus Delta.

Species Equation Source

Avicennia marina BGB= 0.923 * Comley and McGuiness, 2005.72

AGB0.9437

Rhizophora mucronate 0.6648 * AGB0.9437 Pakistan Forest Institute

Where DBH = diameter at breast height, D = diameter at base (30 cm from ground), AGB = aboveground
biomass.

The plot biomass is estimated according to equations 1 through 3 in appendix 1 of CDM AR Tool 14
(Methods of plot biomass measurement: measurement of fixed area plots):

BTREE,p,i
bTREE,p,i =
APLOT,i

BTREE,p,i = ∑ BTREE,j,p,i
j

BTREE,j,p,i = ∑ BTREE,l,j,p,i
l

Where:

bTREE,p,i Tree biomass per hectare in plot p of stratum i; t d.m. ha -1

BTREE,p,i Tree biomass in sample plot p of stratum i; t d.m.

APLOT,i Size of sample plot in stratum i; ha

BTREE,j,p,i Biomass of trees of species j in sample plot p of stratum i; t d.m.

BTREE,l,j,p,i Biomass of tree l of species j in sample plot p of stratum i; t d.m.

72
Comley, B.W.T., McGuiness, K.A. 2005. Above- and below-ground biomass, and allometry of four
common northern Australian mangroves. Aust. J. Bot. 53, 431-436. http://doi.org/10..1071/BT04162.

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Biomass of a tree in a sample plot is estimate by using Equation 4:

BTREE,l,j,p,i = fj (x1,l , x2,l , x3,l , … ) ∗ (1 + R j )

Where:

BTREE,l,j,p,i Biomass of tree l of species j in sample plot p of stratum i; t d.m.

fj (x1,l , x2,l , x3,l , … ) Aboveground biomass of the tree returned by the allometric equation for species
j relating the measurements of tree l to the aboveground biomass of the tree; t
d.m.

Rj Root to shoot ratio for tree species j; dimensionless73

Mean carbon stock in trees within the tree biomass estimation strata and the associated uncertainty are
estimated by using equations 12 through 17 of CDM AR Tool 14:

∑np=1
i
bTREE,p,i
bTREE,i =
ni
M

bTREE = ∑ wi ∗ bTREE,i
i=1

BTREE = A ∗ bTREE

44
CTREE = ∗ CFTREE ∗ BTREE
12
2
t VAL ∗ √∑M 2 si
i=1 wi ∗ n
i
uc =
btree
ni ni
ni ∗ ∑p=1 b2TREE,p,i − (∑p=1 b2TREE,p,i ) 2
si2 =
ni ∗ (ni − 1)

Where:

bTREE,i Mean tree biomass per hectare in stratum i; t d.m. ha-1

bTREE,p,i Tree biomass per hectare in plot p of stratum i; t d.m. ha -1

𝑒 (−1.085+0.9256 𝑥 ln 𝑏
73
The description of Rj in CDM AR Tool 14 says that “𝑅𝑗 = where b is the aboveground
𝑏
-1
biomass tree biomass per hectare (in t. d.m. ha ), unless transparent and verifiable information can be
provided to justify a different value.” Our method uses results from allometric equations that are added to
the results for aboveground biomass, which gives the same result without the additional step of
calculating Rj.

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BTREE Tree biomass in the tree biomass estimation strata; t d.m.

A Sum of areas of the tree biomass estimation strata, ha

bTREE Mean tree biomass per hectare in the tree biomass estimation strata; t d.m. ha -1

CTREE Carbon stock in trees in the tree biomass estimation strata; t CO 2e

44/12 Ratio of molecular weight of CO 2 to carbon

CFTREE Carbon fraction of tree biomass; t C (t d.m.)-1

wi Ratio of the area of stratum i to the sum of areas of tree biomass estimation strata (i.e. w i
= Ai / A); dimensionless

uc Uncertainty in CTREE

t VAL Two-sided Student’s t-value for a confidence level of 90% and degrees of freedom equal to
n – M, where n is total number of sample plots within the tree biomass estimation strata
and M is the total number of tree biomass estimation strata

si 2 Variance of tree biomass per hectare across all sample plots in stratum i; (t d.m. ha -1)2

ni Number of sample plots in stratum i

The change in tree biomass carbon stock is determined by (Equation 1 in CDM AR Tool 14):

∆CTREE = CTREE,t2 − CTREE,t1

√(u1 ∗ CTREE,t1 )2 + (u2 ∗ CTREE,t2 )2

u∆C =
|∆CTREE |

Where:

∆CTREE Change in carbon stock in trees during the period between two points of time t1 and t2; t
CO2e

CTREE,t1 Carbon stock in trees, including both above- and belowground biomass, as estimated at
time t1; t CO2e

Note 1. At the first verification CTREE,t1 is set equal to the carbon stock in the pre-project
tree biomass (i.e., CTREE,t1 = CTREE_BSL ).

CTREE,t2 Carbon stock in trees, including both above- and belowground biomass, as estimated at
time t2; t CO2e

u∆C Uncertainty in ∆CTREE

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u1 , u 2 Uncertainty in CTREE,t1 and CTREE,t2 , respectively

3.3.3.4 Estimation of soil carbon stocks

Source of data

As previously stated in Section 3.2.2.5.1.2, the project is conservatively assuming the use of a default SOC
accumulation rate adjusted for the deduction of allochthonous carbon. The project will further investigate
if a statistically reliable SOC accumulation rate can be derived based on feasible monitoring procedures
described below. In Section 3.2.2.5.1.2, Figure 20 highlights that soil C is accumulating over time within
the planted areas. That trend is based only on five cores from planted areas across the Indus Delta.
However, assuming that this trend will be supported with the collection of more soil cores once the project
is initiated, it is estimated at 1.90 t C ha-1 yr-1 is accumulating 5 years after planting and this is based on a
total soil depth of 50 cm. The average soil C in eight cores collected in degraded areas devoid of vegetation
is 1.5% C (range: 0.63 – 2.02% C, standard error: 0.17). Since this area has had no vegetation for many
decades, it is assumed that this carbon within the sediment is all allochthonous carbon and results in 0.176
t C ha-1 in one millimetre of sediment deposition. If we assume that sediment is being deposited at the rate
of sea level rise, then 2.5 to 3 mm is deposited each year, which results in 0.35 to 0.53 t C ha -1 yr-1 that is
allochthonous. Deducting this from the estimated 1.90 t C ha -1 yr-1 from the trendline in Figure , the resulting
soil C accumulation is 1.46 to 1.37 t C ha-1 yr-1, which is much greater than the estimate using the default
value adjusted for allochthonous C. Further soil core collection and analysis is needed to verify this trend,
but it is likely that the determination of soil C sequestration will be based on the chronosequence method
described above. Additionally, sediment tiles will be placed in newly planted areas to assess the C content
of deposited sediment following methods in VM0033. The project will explore these alternatives in 2024.
The collection of the field data will be the responsibility of Sindh Forest Department and the analyses will
be conducted by some relevant research institute such as Institute of Environmental Studies University of
Karachi, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, or Pakistan Forest Institute,
Peshawar, or the Project itself once it has developed in-house facilities for soil organic carbon analysis.

Measurement of crown or vegetation cover

In line with the VM0033 Methodology provisions, the canopy cover of biomass plots described in Section
3.3.3.3 will be used to determine whether a given plot has at least 15% canopy cover or at least 50% cover.
This is assessed by calculating the crown area of each tree in a plot, summing cover from all trees, and
dividing that by the total plot area (250 m2). Canopy cover will be assessed using both a densitometer and
expert visual field observations.

Measurement methods and procedures – field-collected data method

Soil sampling will occur at 10 of the tree sample plots in each stratum74, and these locations will be chosen
using a random number table prior to the field campaign. At the centre of each tree biomass plot described
in Section 3.3.3.3 that has not been disturbed by monitoring activity, one 50 cm soil core will be collected
using an open face gouge auger (Figure 22). This auger is designed to collect undisturbed soil samples that
reduce the potential of compaction in the core. In 5 cm increments, the top 30 cm of the core will be

74
The average coefficient of variation in the soil data summarised by Chmura et al. (2003) is 0.5, which
equates to 10 samples per stratum following sample size calculations in Needelman et al. (2018)

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collected and individually stored to be processed in the lab. Another 5 cm sample will be collected at a
depth between 45 and 50 cm. When a new plantation is established, three soil cores will be collected
following the same methods described above, which is the minimum sample size needed to assess
variation within a site (Howard et al., 201475). The locations will be randomly generated using GIS and will
be at least 100 m from each other. Samples will be kept cold until transported to the lab.

Figure 22. Picture of a one-metre-long open face gouge auger.

Once at the lab, each sample will be dried at 70 ºC until at constant weight and weighed to determine dry
weight. Bulk density will be determined by taking the dry weight of each sample and dividing by the
subsample volume76. Each sample will be ground and homogenised. To determine if carbonates are
present in a sample, a few drops of hydrochloric acid will be placed on a subsample of the dried
homogenised soil; if activity is noticed, the sample will be treated using standard methods (Howard et al.
2014). A subsample from each sample will be dried, weighed, combusted at 450 ºC for 8 hours, and
weighed again to determine the percent organic matter (%OM) by loss on ignition (LOI).

Monitoring equipment

In the field, a WAAS-enabled or higher accuracy GPS unit will be used to record the core location. An open-
faced gouge corer, measuring tape, knife, spatula, and containers for securely transporting soil samples
back to the laboratory will be used.

75
Howard, J., S. Hoyt, K. Isensee, M. Telszewski, and E. Pidgeon (eds.). 2014. Coastal blue carbon:
methods for assessing carbon stocks and emissions factors in mangroves, tidal salt marshes, and
seagrasses. Conservation International, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO,
International Union for Conservation of Nature. Arlington, Virginia, USA.
76
At this time, the exact volume of the subsample is not known but will be determined at the time of
sampling.

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In the laboratory, the equipment used will be determined by the method used for determining organic
carbon content (%Corg). In all likelihood the Loss on Ignition (LOI) method that uses combustion and
empirical relationships between organic carbon and organic matter will be used for the determination of
organic carbon content. The LOI method equipment includes among others mortar and pestle for
homogenisation, petri dishes, beakers, desiccator, digital balance, a muffle furnace and ceramic crucibles.

Calculation method

The organic carbon content of each core will be determined following VM0033, with the subscript WPS
substituted for BSL:

44 CWPS−soil,i,t− CWPS−soil,i,(t−T)
GHGWPS−soilCO2,i,t = ∗ − (36)
12 T

Where:

CWPS−soil,i,t Soil organic carbon stock in the baseline scenario in stratum i in year t; t C ha -1

i 1, 2, 3 … MWPS strata in the project scenario

t 1, 2, 3 … t* years elapsed since the start of the project activity

T Time elapsed between two successive estimations (T = t 2 – t1)

44/12 Ratio of molecular weight of CO 2 to carbon; dimensionless

The mass of carbon per unit area is calculated following VM0033:

44 depth N
CWPS,SOC = 12 ∗ ∑i=1 (CFSOC,sample ∗ BD ∗ Thickness ∗ 100) (100)

Where:

CWPS,SOC Quantification of carbon within a soil core; t CO 2e ha-1

44/12 Ratio of molecular weight of CO 2 to carbon; dimensionless

Ndepth Number of soil horizons, based on subdivisions of the soil core

CFSOC,sample Carbon fraction of the sample, as determined following Equation 77 below

BD Bulk density, as determined in laboratory; g cm-3

Thickness Thickness of soil horizon; cm

100 Conversion factor of g cm-3 to tonne ha-1

The %C in each sample plot will be determined following Allen (1974)77:

77
Allen, SE 1974. Chemical Analysis of Ecological Materials, Blackwell Sci., Malden, Mass.

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%OM
%C =
1.724

Where:

%C Percent soil organic carbon in the sample

%OM Percent organic matter derived from loss-on-ignition (LOI)

and

d. m. soil after combusition

%OM = ∗ 100
d. m. soil before combustion

Where:

d.m. dry mass

This equation was chosen due to the general trend of soil %C values that are less than 2%. Equation 95 in
VM0033 that relates %OM to %C (%C = 0.415 × %OM + 2.8857) assumes a baseline %C content of 2.8857,
which often is an overestimate of soil conditions in the Indus Delta. Thirty-five soil samples collected within
the Indus Delta were analysed for both %OM and %C and the relationship between the variables results in
nearly identical results to the equation by Allen (1974; Figure 23)

Figure 23. Relationship between the proportion of soil organic matter determined
by loss on ignition and the proportion of organic carbon that is analytically
determined.

3.3.3.5 Estimation of coastal erosion

Source of data

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The monitoring activities will be carried out specifically as part of this project. The analyses will be
conducted using GIS and ground-truthed during field campaigns.

Measurement methods and procedures

The amount of area eroded within the Project Area will be assessed every 5 years, beginning with the first
assessment in 2025, which will examine erosion since 2020. At a minimum, Landsat satellite imagery (30
m resolution) will be procured over the Project Area. If higher resolution imagery is available, it will be used
to enable finer-scale erosion delineation. The shoreline within the Project Area will be manually delineated
using GIS for each five-year increment. The delineation will be done by one GIS specialist and confirmed by
another.

The manual delineation will be ground-truthed at plantations that are closest to the coastline. In conjunction
with mangrove and soil sampling, a team member with a GPS unit will walk portions of shoreline within
plantations that are dispersed across the Project Area with the tracking feature enabled. These data will be
downloaded in the laboratory, uploaded to the GIS and compared to the manually delineated shoreline.

The amount of erosion that occurred between image dates will be assessed using GIS.

3.3.3.6 Internal auditing and QA/QC

3.3.3.6.1 Geospatial data management

All geospatial data will be collected using latitude and longitude in the decimal degrees format and WGS84
datum. All point and line data collected in the field will downloaded after each field campaign and stored
as a feature class within a geodatabase. The metadata within each feature class will be recorded and
updated as needed.

3.3.3.6.2 QA/QC of data

The project has a strict protocol for rectifying any non-conformances with the validated monitoring plan and
a mechanism for ensuring data quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC). To ensure that the data is
accurate, precise, consistent, transparent, complete and relevant for the intended purpose, it strictly
adheres to and follows the IPCC 2006 Guidelines on GHG accounting.

Data is considered of high quality and to be accurate, consistent if and when they are fit for their intended
uses in operations, decision making and planning. Moreover, it is deemed of high quality if and when it
correctly represents the real-world construct to which it refers.

All the interventions conducted by the project emphasise quality of monitoring data because it is explicitly
evidence-based and results oriented.

QA is ensured through a planned system of review procedures conducted by personnel not involved in the
monitoring/inventory development process. Data QC will include a system of routine technical activities
implemented by the monitoring team to measure and control the quality of the monitoring and data
collection process as it is prepared.

For this purpose, a QA/QC plan has been developed as part of oversight policy and procedures. This plan
outlines QA/QC activities performed, the personnel responsible for these activities, and the schedule for

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completing these activities. The QA/QC plan contains the following four core elements: coordination, review
procedures, documentation and archiving procedures and effective use of resources in MRV requirements.

The project’s QA/QC coordinator is responsible for implementing the QA/QC plan. In this role, the QA/QC
coordinator:

• Clarifies and communicates QA/QC responsibilities.

• Develops and maintains QA/QC checklists appropriate to various roles.
• Ensures the timely and accurate completion of QA/QC checklists and related activities.
• Develops an overall QA/QC timeline and when external reviews will occur.
• Manages and delivers documentation of QA/QC activities for documentation and archiving.
• Coordinates external reviews of estimates and reports and ensures that comments are
incorporated.
The project has review procedures. While undertaking an internal review of MRV procedures,
methodologies and outputs, it tries to ensure the following:

• Sufficient independent expertise is available to conduct the internal review

• Applied review methods are transparent, rigorous and scientifically sound
• Review results are reasonable and well-explained
• Review approach and findings are documented and considered in continuous improvement
processes
Following is a checklist for internal verification purposes. When an internal review has been undertaken,
the following items are reported and documented:

• Information that has been verified internally

• Criteria that were used for the selection of verification priorities
• Verification approaches, along with relevant data that were collected
• Any limitations in the approaches that have been identified
• Comparisons that have been performed with independent inventories, datasets, scientific
literature, or other studies
• Feedback received from external reviewers, with a summary of key comments, and reference to
actions taken to address such comments have been addressed
• Main conclusions of the verification
• Actions taken as a result of the verification process
• Any recommendations for inventory improvements or research arising from the findings with their
prioritisation; together with identification of capacity building needs where relevant
Review procedures for oversight and ensuring conformances

Although general QC procedures are designed to be implemented for all categories and on a routine basis,
it may not be necessary or possible to check all aspects of input data, parameters and calculations every
year. A representative sample of data and calculations from every category may be subjected to general QC
procedures each year. In establishing criteria and processes for selecting sample data sets and processes,
as a good practice, QC checks will be undertaken on all parts of the system over an appropriate period of
time as determined in the QA/QC plan.

Documentation and archiving procedures

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The project has a documentation and archiving system for its monitoring activities. This allows estimates
to be reproduced, and provides safeguards against data and information loss, and supports internal and
external verification processes. It also will serve as institutional memory and would store information with
enough detail to support new teams or team members in their roles. This will reduce duplication of work
and make efficient use of resources. Archiving of material would enable easy access to the documentation
and references. Where possible all information would be stored in a central location.

As a guide, the following information would be documented and archived related to monitoring reports and
any estimates:

• Activity data, also sources for information, contact persons, other contact information
• Any parameter values used and the reasoning for their choice
• Methods used, including spreadsheets, models, instructions how to do the calculations, how to
apply the models, reasoning for choices made
• Archived by submission or monitoring year
• References
• Expert jugement (documentation, contact information)
• Changes made and recalculations
• Results of key category analysis
• Uncertainty analysis
• Results of QA/QC measures
• Improvement plan
• Archiving plan
• Review findings and responses
A responsible person (an archive manager/archive coordinator) has been nominated to maintain the
documentation and archiving system, and a plan made for updating the documentation and the archive.
This plan also includes operational elements such as what can be changed or updated, and by whom; when
and how updates or changes are made, and who has access to change documentation within the archive,
noting any special procedures for archiving of confidential data.

The archiving system is in both electronic and hard copy format and is located in a specified location.

The Director Field Operations is responsible for the preparation of measurement and monitoring report as
per prescribed template and format of Verra for the preparation of monitoring reports. The field teams
document any sampling approaches used, including target precision levels, sample sizes, sample site
locations, stratification, frequency of measurement and QA/QC procedures. The Managing Director/Country
Head Policy, Strategy and Business Development will review the monitoring data and report with respect to
relevance, completeness, consistency, transparency and accuracy.

The final report is shared by Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination with the VVB and other
stakeholders and is available to the public. Summaries of the monitoring report in Urdu language will also
be prepared and shared with local community members as well as will be made available to the public as
discussed in the section on dissemination of monitoring results.

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3.3.3.6.3 Database management

The project will design, develop and maintain a database for easy availability of needed information to the
relevant stakeholders. The database will have a proper directory, file folders and filing system that will
categorise and catalogue the project information based on a well-documented structure. To ensure that
the data is available in timely manner, the database will be updated on regular basis as soon it becomes
available after proper QA/QC of data has been done. The project will have a DBC-1 Data Archive in Virtual
Data Room using Dropbox as well as on a Server in the project office data room.

The project will have a procedure for the administration, handling and management of its information.
Physical information, such as signed contracts, signed commercial proposals, field measurement forms,
among others, will be scanned, after which the physical version will be stored in the archive established for
the purpose. The digital version will be saved in the folder structure as discussed above.

Similarly, data collected through specific forms, calculations and related results will be recorded and
backed up. The personnel involved in the saving of data would make sure that it is classified and organised
in a clear and simple way to avoid possible errors and inconsistencies at the time of the analysis, and that
any of the project stakeholders can easily access and understand such information.

Each generated file will be named according to the following code: title of the file, date, initials of the person
who created the document; for example: TitleoftheFile_210211_AKG. Each item is separated by
underscores and without tildes (for greater security). When the file is modified by another person, he/she
will save it with the updated date and add his/her initials.

If and when additional folders are required, they will be added, and all relevant entities will be informed
about the creation of any folder.

3.3.3.6.4 Document control

A Document Management and Control system will be put in place to ensure that the production of needed
documents takes places under a set process ensuring the authenticity and integrity of the various project
documents as well as their easy access and preservation. This system will comprise of the set of technical
and administrative activities for the planning, management and organisation of the documents produced
and received by DBC-1 from its origin to its final destination in order to facilitate its availability, integrity,
access and preservation, regardless of whether these are physical or electronic. The storage of project
information on Dropbox. enables the team to access documents from any device.

3.3.4 Dissemination of Monitoring Plan and Results (VCS, 3.18; CCB, CL4.2)

The project partners will have the climate monitoring plan available for public review at the project office.
The full results of the initial climate monitoring are included in this PD, which will be made publicly available
in the Project Zone. Additionally, a PD summary will be written and provided to communities throughout the
Project Zone in English and Sindhi. This PD and the PD summary will additionally be posted to the project
website for public review.

3.4 Optional Criterion: Climate Change Adaptation Benefits

3.4.1 Regional Climate Change Scenarios (CCB, GL1.1)

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Based on various studies conducted by relevant and competent bodies, likely regional or sub-national
climate change and climate variability scenarios and impacts and potential changes in the local land use
scenario due to these climate change scenarios in the absence of the project are given below.

• Increased temperatures
• Erratic rainfall patterns
• Prolonged droughts
• Stronger winds
• Increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events
Potential changes in the local land use scenario due to these climate change scenarios in the absence of
the project include:

• Greater shoreline erosion due to strong wind currents and sea level rise
• Increased salinisation of terrestrial landscapes and loss of agricultural lands
• Saltwater intrusion into freshwater bodies
• Greater salinisation of underground aquifers
• Greater landward progression of inter-tidal zone
These local land use scenarios will have impacts for local communities, their livelihoods as well as
biodiversity.

Pakistan is consistently rated amongst the most affected countries by extreme weather events, ranking 8th
in the Long-Term Climate Risk Index for the period 1999-2019.78 Going forward, the negative effects of
climate change are likely to result in extreme weather conditions that will have wide ranging impacts and
will thus pose severe and negative impacts on the Project Zone’s environment, economy and society.

In the last 50 years, the annual mean temperature in Pakistan has increased by roughly 0.5 °C. The number
of heat wave days per year has increased nearly fivefold in the last 30 years. Annual precipitation has
historically shown high variability but has slightly increased in the last 50 years and sea level along the
Indus Delta and Karachi coast has risen approximately 10 cm in the last 100 years 79. By the end of this
century, the annual mean temperature in Pakistan is expected to rise by 3 °C to 5 °C for a central global
emissions scenario, while higher global emissions may yield a rise of 4 °C to 6 °C.

Average annual rainfall is not expected to have a significant long-term trend but is expected to exhibit large
inter-annual variability. Sea level is expected to rise by a further 60 cm by 209980 and will most likely affect
the low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and the Indus Delta.

78
Eckstein, Kunzel, and Schafer 2021, Global Climate Risk Index 2021, Germanwatch, page 15-16.
79
Chaudhury 2017, Climate change profile of Pakistan, Asian Development Bank, page ix.
80
Rabbani, Inam, and Tabrez 2008, The impact of sea level rise on Pakistan’s coastal zones – in a
climate change scenario, National Institute of Oceanography, page 4.

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To predict the impacts of these changes a Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) has been developed for the
Indus Delta area by Salik et al. (2015).81 The CVI approach employs the Third and Fourth IPCC Assessment
Reports’ concept of vulnerability being a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. In its
Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation (SREX) and Fifth Assessment Report the IPCC reconceptualised vulnerability to instead centre
around ‘risk’, which itself is still a function of vulnerability (combined concepts of sensitivity and adaptive
capacity), exposure, and now also the concept of hazard.

The index consists of household parameters of the original vulnerability dimensions that maintain direct
relevance to two of the three components of the latest risk centred approach plus indirect connotations for
‘hazard’. Exposure is defined by ‘natural disaster and climate variability’, sensitivity by ‘health’, ‘food’, and
‘water’ and adaptive capability by ‘sociodemographic profile’, ‘livelihood strategies’, and ‘social networks’
(Pelling, 2011)82. This approach was applied to three future climate time periods (2010 to 2039), (2040
to 2069) and (2070 to 2099) with respect to the base climate time period (1961 to 1990). The analysis
shows that the annual temperature will rise 1.15 °C, 2.4 °C and 4.19 °C by the respective time slices,
along with a declining trend in annual total precipitation. The detailed results on CVI are given in Appendix
15.

Variability in temperature, frequency of extreme events and sea surface temperature – which is ranked
high in the Project Zone – creates abrupt changes in exposure indicators and is categorised as moderate
to highly sensitive and vulnerable by the study. This situation renders negative impacts on ecosystem
functions, fish biodiversity and local livelihoods.

The scores of all sensitivity indicators for the Project Zone fall in the category of extremely sensitive and
vulnerable and contribute to the community's sensitivity towards climate change, according to the report.
Notably, the inadequate and unregulated release of freshwater flows from the Indus River impacting
agriculture and fisheries production, reflects a very high impact on the economy of community, which is
largely dependent on fisheries.

The coping capacity of a community dealing with the climate change associated risks is highly dependent
upon social factors like, social values, networks, customs as well as the social capital. In terms of coping
potential in the Project Zone, consumption patterns, income diversification, dependency ratio, schooling or
education level and infrastructure (access to basic facilities) are indicators which reflect low adaptive
capacity/very high vulnerability.

There are several reasons behind these circumstances, but low or nearly insignificant literacy rate (worst
amongst the fishing community), lack of access to basic facilities, low diversified and intervallic sources of
income and inadequate Government investment are the most significant reasons behind this low adaptive
capacity.

81
Salik, K.M., S. Jahangir, W.Z. Zahdi, and S. Hasson. 2015 Climate change vulnerability and adaptation
options for the coastal communities of Pakistan. Ocean and Coastal Management 112: 61-73.
82
Pelling, M. 2011. Adaptation to Climate Change, From Resilience to Transformation, Routledge, New
York.

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3.4.2 Climate Change Impacts (CCB, GL1.2)

Current or anticipated climate changes are having or are likely to have an impact on the following in the
Project Zone and surrounding regions:

Community well-being Impacts

Community well-being will be reduced due to loss of human lives and greater injuries, morbidity and
diseases due to higher temperatures, extreme weather events, and greater occurrence of floods, droughts,
disease pathogens, insects, pests and bites by dangerous and poisonous animals; loss of productive assets
like crop lands; loss of crops and livestock due to greater floods damages, droughts, diseases, etc.; loss of
income and livelihoods earning opportunities; loss of infrastructure and access to various services;
increased cost of living due to greater cost involved in access to various services and inflation;
displacements and migration necessitated by floods, droughts, etc.

Biodiversity Impacts

Biodiversity conservation status in the Project Zone and surrounding regions will be negatively affected as
explained below:

• Loss and fragmentation of coastal and marine habitats, including loss of food and shelter sources,
due to sea level rise, loss of vegetation, shoreline erosion, increased salinity, greater temperatures
on the surface of land and ocean and ocean acidification, etc.
• Loss of species and genetic diversity, particularly of endemic, rare and sensitive species which are
not adapted to the new climatic situation and its greater variability
• Increased chances of poaching due to wildlife getting exposed and people capturing wildlife to
meet their income and livelihoods needs
• Greater prevalence of diseases and pathogens and onslaught of invasive and exotic species
There will also be diversion of funds by government agencies to cater to damages caused by climate change
events instead of investing in wildlife and biodiversity conservation.

Listed below are some of the major climate change related concerns of the Project Zone and surrounding
regions and country in the past, which have resulted from the current climate change scenario and some
future vulnerability concerns to climate change related concerns and extreme events:

Table 28. Key extreme events in the past which have resulted from the present climate change scenario.

Type of disaster Year Severity Project Zone areas most affected

Cyclone A2 1999 High Keti Bandar, Shah Bandar, Kharochan, Jati

Drought 1998-2002 High Whole of district Thatta, Sujawal and Badin

Flood 2003 Medium Whole of district Thatta and Sujawal

Tsunami 2005 High Keti Bandar, Shah Bandar, Kharochan, Jati

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Drought 2005 Low Districts Thatta and Sujawal

Cyclone-Yemyin 2007 High Districts Thatta and Sujawal

Flood 2010 Very high Districts Thatta, Sujawal and Badin

Flood 2011 Very high Districts Thatta, Sujawal and Badin

Flood 2020 Low Thatta and Sujawal

Drought 2020-2022 High Thatta, Sujawal and Badin

Flood 2022 Very high Thatta, Sujawal and Badin

Cyclone-Biparjoy 2023 Low Thatta and Sujawal

Future vulnerability concerns:

• Increased variability of monsoons

• Projected recession of Hindu Kush and Himalayas (HKH) glaciers threatening Indus River System
(IRS) flows
• Increased risks of extreme events (floods, droughts, cyclones, extreme high / low temperatures)
• Water and heat stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions leading to reduced agricultural
productivity.
• Increase in deforestation, loss of biodiversity.
• Increased intrusion of saline water in the Indus Delta due to sea level rise; risk to mangroves and
breeding grounds of fish
The potential impacts that result from present and future vulnerabilities include devastation of mangroves,
unavailability and low access to fuel wood, extinction of mangroves species due to increased salinity levels,
degradation of agricultural lands due to seawater intrusion, decrease in freshwater flows, decreased access
to clean drinking water and an almost absence of sanitation facilities, increased frequency and intensity of
climatic disasters leading to a loss of livelihood sources and rising socio-economic costs.

In addition to the adaptation measures outlined in the following section, the project in collaboration with
the Institute of Environmental Studies at the University of Karachi has designed a long-term research
program to scientifically investigate the impact of prevailing freshwater and sediment inflows into the delta
area and other site and ecological factors on the long-term growth and sustainability of mangroves.

Also, experiments will be laid out to assess the photosynthetic activity and primary productivity of
mangroves in the Indus Delta region over a long-period of time which will provide insights into the
ecosystem's capacity to produce and support energy flows over long-periods of time. Resilience to climate
change and adaptation to sea level rise will be assessed too.

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These research studies will provide credible information about the sustainability of mangrove ecosystem in
the Indus Delta region. The findings of these scientifically designed studies will be published in peer-
reviewed scientific journals.

Regular and systematic monitoring of these indicators can and will provide valuable information for
conservation and management efforts, helping to identify potential issues and inform appropriate
interventions.

3.4.3 Measures Needed and Designed for Adaptation (CCB, GL1.3)

Given the wide-ranging and anticipated negative consequences of climatic change for the social, economic
and ecological systems in the Project Zone and its particularly adverse impacts on the poor and most
vulnerable segments of the society, immediate and targeted actions are needed to deal with and adapt to
the repercussions of climate change. In particular, the project has designed and will implement actions to
support the following needed measures for climate change adaptation.

Table 29. Project activities and their climate change adaptation benefits.

Project Sub-activity/ Adaptation

activity components benefits

Address primary threats to Intact and well-managed mangroves and wetlands

mangroves and wetlands ecosystems provide a host of ecosystem services
and benefits for human well-being. These include:
Avoid deforestation and forest
degradation of existing natural Provisioning Services and their associated climate
mangrove forests change adaptation related benefits: Fishes,
shrimps and other marine products; timber and
Mangrove planting wood; fuelwood; fodder; biochemicals, medicinal
and pharmaceutical products; food products;
Advocacy for ensuring
genetic resources; ornamental resources;
adequate water supply for
transport infrastructure; water purification.
Rehabilitation, priority mangroves and
restoration wetlands areas Regulating Services and their associated climate
and change adaptation related benefits: Air quality
sustainable Advocacy for improved water
maintenance; buffering against extreme events;
management quality in coastal zones, rivers
Noise abatement; carbon sequestration and
of mangroves and lakes
climate regulations; protection from floods and
Advocacy for managing land- tsunamis; storms and erosion control; prevention
use change to protect Indus of saltwater intrusion; pollination of agricultural
Delta mangroves and wetlands and horticultural crops; reducing pests and
diseases.
Encourage and promote
sustainable use of mangroves Supporting Services and their associated climate
and other wetland resources change adaptation related benefits: Food security
through preparation and through primary production; nutrient cycling;
implementation of Indus Delta habitat provision such as provision of spawning

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Mangroves and Wetlands sites for nursery habitat for numerous fishes,
Management Plan and shrimps and other marine species; and
keeping the precautionary biodiversity conservation.
principle in view
Informational, Recreational and Cultural Services
Address issues of climate and their associated climate change adaptation
change and natural disasters related benefits: Knowledge systems for tackling
affecting mangroves and the adverse effects of climate change; inspiration
coastal ecosystems as well as and therapeutic services in times of distress;
coastal communities formation of iconic landscapes and seascapes
that guard against the vagaries of climate change;
spiritual and religious values; sense of place; and
association.

As a result of the various measures taken by DBC-

2 to protect, rehabilitate, restore and sustainably
manage the mangroves and wetlands ecosystem,
the realisation of above services and benefits in
support of climate change adaptation will be
increased thereby enhancing resilience to
potential climate change impacts (environmental,
economic, social and institutional).

Short-term and long-term The project’s activities related to climate-smart

village development plans village level development planning will create a
keeping in view the predicted basis for and help to integrate and mainstream
climate changes and their climate change and environment into the long-
impacts term development process of the coastal areas in
Participatory the Indus Delta.
village
development This among other things includes the potential
planning Advocacy and networking for need for climate change risks to be reflected in
integration of village infrastructure and other village development
development plans with the plants, and the creation of management and
higher-level taluka/tehsil, monitoring systems to evaluate the need to
district and provincial level implement climate change adaptation measures.
development plans

Technical inputs into the The project has substantial climate change related
Provincial and
preparation of provincial and expertise. The technical experts of the project will
district level
district level climate change provide technical inputs into the preparation of
climate
mitigation and adaptation provincial and district level climate change
change
plans mitigation and adaptation plans. These plans
mitigation and
when implemented will yield climate change
adaptation
adaptation benefits and their proper monitoring
planning
and evaluation.

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Training and capacity building The project implements comprehensive and

in small-business development needs-based technical support through training
advice and support and capacity building for enhancing and
developing alternative livelihoods. This includes
Imparting of knowledge and support for improved fisheries/aquaculture,
skills for the development of agriculture, forestry, livestock and other products-
alternative livelihoods based business development, as well as value
Community- chain promotion and diversification away from the
Training and capacity building
based traditional natural-resource based economy.
in support of sustainable
business production and harvesting of These business development activities ensure to
development fisheries, forestry, agriculture, consider, factor in and incorporate long-term
and micro- livestock and other products climate change related risks and their anticipated
finance including their value chain impacts into their development plans. In addition,
related promotion and diversification communities will have improved access to
linkages
insurance services and credit facilities because of
development Linkage development to micro-
linkages development to various micro-finance
finance providing
organisations.
organisations and services
These project interventions will ensure resilience
of the existing livelihood sources as well as the
availability of alternative livelihood opportunities
and sources in the case of affected businesses,
industries and sectors.

Improved access to affordable, The project works with local communities to

clean, safe and sustainable improve the provision of drinking water facilities,
drinking water facilities hygiene and sanitation services and other public
health care services.
Improved Improved access to hygiene
public health and sanitation services This improved access to clean drinking water,
and sanitation hygiene and sanitation and public health care
Improved access to public services reduces their vulnerability to various
services
health care services diseases and also better prepares them for
dealing and coping with the negative impacts of
climate change. Thus, their climate change
adaptive capacity is increased.

Improved access to formal The project has provisions for and works with local
educational services communities to increase their access to both
Improved
formal and informal education services. Because
access to Improved access to informal of this increased access to education services the
education educational services communities will have better understanding of as
services
well as capacity to deal with climate change and
its impacts.

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Development of renewable The project works with local communities to make

Improved and sustainable local energy greater use of locally available renewable energy
access to sources such as solar energy sources such as solar energy. This increases their
affordable reliance on local renewable and affordable energy
and sources. This switch to alternative and local
sustainable energy sources enhances their resilience to
energy potential climate change impacts which may
sources affect the supply and provision of energy from
traditional and grid sources.

Improved coastal and marine To avert serious stress, threats and damage to
biodiversity conservation coastal and marine life and biodiversity, the DBC-2
project will help biodiversity adapt to the changing
climate through boosting the resilience of coastal
and marine ecosystems.

It will do this through the establishment and

adaptive management of Marine Protected Areas
(MPAs) in the Project Area/Project Zone. DBC-2
will employ nature-based tools and solutions such
as the use of green infrastructure, conserving and
building/expanding climate resilient mangrove
ecosystem which are better adapted to high
salinity, increased temperatures, and other
extreme weather events.

Improved The Project Area includes areas where mangroves

biodiversity will grow due to climate-induced sea level rise.
conservation Protecting these areas through the project
activities will help biodiversity to adapt to climate
change.

DBC-2 will maintain and increase ecological

resilience through appropriate species and
planting sites selection as well as employing
appropriate planting methods in its restoration
work, which will help in conserving and
maintaining resilient ecosystems and compensate
for any lost ecosystems due to sea level rise and
shoreline/coastal erosion on the landward side.

Furthermore, DBC-2 will facilitate rehabilitation

and repair damages to already over-exploited and
lost coastal and marine ecosystems through
undertaking compensatory measures in the inter-
tidal zones that are newly formed due to sea level

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4 Community
4.1 Without-Project Community Scenario

4.1.1 Descriptions of Communities at Project Start (CCB, CM1.1)

The DBC-2 Project Zone is home to 39 villages with a total population of 23,185 in 2,570 households. The
majority of settlements lie on the fringes of the Project Zone boundary and are located within close proximity
to one of the three major creeks that flow inland from the coast.

There are also 11 settlements of fishing communities that are permanently located near the creek system
(see Figure 24 and Figure 25).

Figure 24. Village Communities near the Project Zone

ear Project Zone boundary.

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Figure 25. Village Community settlement near creeks

Well-being

To accurately determine the baseline conditions the proponent carried out a set of comprehensive
Participatory Rural Appraisals and household surveys with community members in all of the villages in the
Project Zone, as well as the SBIA workshops as detailed in Section 2.1.17.

Findings from these studies revealed that communities and households in the Project Zone live in an
unpredictable economic and social environment where the majority are facing increasing poverty and
environmental degradation traps.

Livelihoods and income sources for these communities are mostly natural resources based, with the
majority of households reliant on fishing. Due to this narrow non-diversified economic base, there are few
other employment and income-earning opportunities. As a result, the incidence of poverty in Sindh’s coastal
districts of Sujawal, Thatta and Badin is 70% or more of the population (where poverty is defined as an

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adult living on PKR 3,030 per month or approximately US$0.92 per day based on a 2017 average exchange
rate).83

Figure 26. Communities within the Project Zone reside in basic

housing and face significant limitations in accessing educational resources. in the Project Zone live in
basic housing and have limited access to eduction.

Because of its geographically isolated location, the cost of living in the region is already higher due to the
added costs involved in transporting goods. Most villages lack road access and are usually approached by
boat or motorcycle. Very little work has been carried out on infrastructure in the area in the recent past and
there is neither the money and capacity, nor organisation within the communities for them to proactively
take steps independently to improve conditions.

Access to formal credit facilities through banks is limited for most of the population due to collateral
requirements. Hence communities – particularly fishermen dealing with rising costs of technology and an
increase in demand for fish – are increasingly dependent on informal sources of borrowing money through
money lenders who charge exorbitant interest rates.

As a result, many are caught in a debt cycle and are abandoning traditional methods of fishing in favour of
environmentally unfriendly practices such as the use of illegal gillnets to increase their catch to service
debt. Lack of available credit facilities is also a hindrance to potential new businesses as capital
requirement costs cannot be met because very few villagers have any savings. Any money they earn is
spent entirely on subsistence living.

Over the years many families have been forced to migrate to the nearby cities of Karachi and Hyderabad in
search of work to escape poverty. Environmental degradation due to sea intrusion – turning once cultivable
land into barren patches – is also driving this trend forcing more families to leave the area in search of
work. The general health of the population is very poor. One of the main causes of ill-health is lack of clean
drinking water available in the area and prolonged consumption of saline water. The majority of people
either travel large distances to collect potable water from wells, ponds, canals or depressions or purchase

83
Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative and the United Nationals Development Program.
2017. Multidimensional Poverty in Pakistan.

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water cans at high prices. Collecting the water is the responsibility of women and children. There are two
large government-built reverse osmosis (RO) plants that serve the Project Zone (Haji Dongar and Ali
Muhammad Racho villages). However, all are non-functional due to neglect and inadequate investment.
Due to the scarcity of clean water, hygiene conditions in all villages are extremely poor. All but one village
in the area has no sanitation facilities. Solid waste management is non-existent and infectious and water-
borne diseases are widespread such as typhoid, cholera, dysentery, and hepatitis.

Communities in the region also lack access to reliable health and education facilities, due to inadequate
infrastructure, staff and operational funds availability. There are only three basic health care units/
dispensaries that serve the region, and they are underfunded and ill-equipped. Literacy rates amongst the
population are very low, particularly in women, and education is not seen as a priority. The area is home to
26 schools, but only 14 are functional providing a very basic education.

More than 90% of houses in the Project Zone villages are crude wooden or mud structures constructed by
the householders themselves. They have no direct connection for electricity or gas.

Figure 27. Although women constitute over 50% of the population, their participation in local economies
remains limited.

Most housing units have open air kitchens in which firewood is the main source of fuel. Smoke causes
serious health problems and food waste results in additional sanitation issues.

Population growth is fuelling further poverty and applying added pressure to available natural resources
leading to accelerated environmental degradation. In the absence of infrastructure and disposable income,
people are compelled to heavily depend on the renewable resources around them. This increased
competition and stress on the ecosystem is also causing a narrowing of livelihood opportunities, increased
cost of living and growing human-wildlife conflict.

Climate change impacts have also wreaked havoc on the region in recent years with the communities ill-
prepared to cope with the shocks of prolonged heat waves, frequent tropical cyclones, recurring flooding
and persistent drought.

Cultural Heritage

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The DBC-2 Project Zone is located in Sujawal and Badin Districts which have cultural, heritage and
recreational sites that are of outstanding universal value.

The region once formed a part of the ancient Indus Civilisation which lasted from 3300 BC to around
1800 BC. Together with ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia, it was one of three early civilisations of the Near
East and South Asia, and of the three, the most widespread.

Its cities were noted for their urban planning, baked brick houses, elaborate drainage systems, water
supply systems, clusters of large non-residential buildings, and new techniques in handicraft
(carnelian products, seal carving) and metallurgy (copper, bronze, lead, and tin). The Indus civilisation's
economy appears to have depended significantly on trade, which was facilitated by major advances in
transport technology. It may have been the first civilisation to use wheeled transport.

However, by 1800 BC, this advanced culture had abandoned their cities, moving instead to smaller villages
further north. A study from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) found evidence that climate
change likely drove the people to resettle far away from the floodplains of the Indus84.

More recently, Badin was a well-known and historic city in Sindh. Some historians refer to the area where
the city of Badin is currently located as "Sawalpur" in its previous incarnation. The ruins of the ancient town
of Badin are located half a mile from the town's current location. Pathan's army destroyed in 1780 AD. The
mound of ancient Badin contains coins from Alexander the Great's time as well as earlier historical
remnants that allow the city's age to be determined. "Badin" is said to be the name of the sailors' caste
who, at one point in time, lived in the city and had a town on the Reyn River called "Badin Mayan." Over
time, this hamlet came to be known as "Badin" and the city gained its name as a result. In the Thatta district,
the sailors known as "Badin" still reside close to Peer Kudu. In this area, a significant amount of oil has
been produced. One thousand to twenty thousand barrels of crude oil are extracted per day. Petroleum and
natural gas reserves are additionally rich in this area. Because of the great output of sugarcane, Badin is
also known as "Sugar State".

Community Characteristics

In general, most of the communities included in the Project Zone are relatively homogenous fishing
communities. However, there is diversity within communities based on cultural/ethnicity, economic
(wealth), and social (gender and age) factors. Three major ethnic groups are present in the area: Sindhi,
Balochi and Muhajirs (people who migrated from India after partition in 1947). All are Muslim and the
dominant language spoken in the area is Sindhi. Other ethnic groups present in the Project Zone include
Mallah, Jatt (Fakerani, Malkani), Thaheem, Memon, Talpur, Bhorio, Dandal, Thaemor, Khaskheli, Samejo,
Racho, Chalko, Mandaro and Shaikh. The geographical distribution of these ethnic groups is given in
Appendix 1.

Communities are organised in ‘dehs’. A deh is the smallest administrative unit in rural Sindh and the term
deh literally means ‘Revenue village’ in the administrative vocabulary. Several villages and small

84
https://www.whoi.edu/press-room/news-release/climate-change-led-to-collapse-of-ancient-indus-
civilization-study-finds/

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settlements make up a deh and some dehs make up a Union Council, which is the smallest unit of political
representation in local government.

Figure 28. Most residents in the Project Zone depend on fishing as their primary source of income.

Settlements, known as goths, are smaller entities which have only notional linkages with the deh. It is often
but not always the case that the largest settlement in a deh will share its name with the deh. Actual villages
or goths are often divided into sub-clusters called ‘para', which are almost always populated by extended
families belonging to one caste or a kinship group85. Academics such as Feroze Ahmed (1984) 86 describe
Sindh’s traditional village or raj, socially arrayed around dominant landowning families and kinship groups.
One of the few post-colonial village studies in the province was conducted by Honigmann (1960) 87 who also
described Sindh’s villages as virtually defined by patrilineal kinship groups.

It is common that large multi-caste villages often break up due to several social and environmental changes
as well as disputes among caste and kinship groups. Even large villages with a single caste break up in
small settlements of over 8 to 10 households due to disputes over social, economic and political
“entitlements”.

The livelihoods of Project Zone communities revolve around three areas: fishing, agriculture, and raising
livestock. Other than the farming community, a large number of the landless own and manage livestock

85
Bux Mallah, H.. 2009. Social Inequality and Environmental Threats in Indus Delta Villages: Palistan,
Bielefeld: COMCAD (Working Papers – Centre on Migration, Citizenship and Development; 118)
86
Ahmed, F. 1984. "Agrarian Change and Class Formation in Sindh." Economic and Political Weekly
19(39): 149-164.
87
Honigmann, J. J. 1960."A Case Study of Community Development in Pakistan", Economic
Development and Cultural Change 8(3): 288-303.

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and work in non-farm employment. Most of the other workers are engaged in casual labour. Agro-based
industries are also operational in the area and a source of employment for some, particularly the sugar and
rice industries.

Amongst the fishermen, agriculturists and livestock rearing communities there are two distinct groups.
There are the “fish lords” (owning large fish boats and have the financial capital to engage labour), landlords
(who own agricultural lands) and those with large flocks of animals as opposed to the artisanal fishermen,
landless tenants and people who own a few livestock for their subsistence living.

Apart from agriculture, sewing and embroidery are the predominant non-farm activities for females. Women
are also primary collectors of timber and engaged in activities such as processing/sorting of fish/shrimps.

Surveys of household in the Project Zone found the following breakdown in livelihood sources for the
communities in the Project Zone:

• 80% Fishing
8% Daily paid labourers/employment
• 7% Livestock rearing and farming
• 3% Transportation
• 2% Pensioners
Caste and kinship, sometimes defined in ethnic terms, are significant markers of identity, solidarity and
conflict among indigenous people and there are conspicuous differences between various community
groups based on wealth and access to assets, education, gender and age.

Malkani Jatt, and Samejo are landowners and comparatively more educated and wealthier than other
groups and have a higher social status. Memons are mostly businessmen and traders. They too are socio-
economically well-off, compared to the other ethnic groups.

However, the majority of the population in the Project Zone carve out a meagre living by fishing and are
engaged in low-skilled manual labour during off season. Mallahs is the name for traditional seafaring
communities. They are divided into rich Mallahs (those owning large boats and having access to Karachi
fish markets) and poor Mallahs who own only artisanal boats and their weekly catch of fish is low (around
15 kg), barely enough for subsistence living.

Women make up 49% of the population but do not hold any assets (such as boats or land); all economic
activities are controlled by men and the inheritors of assets are also always men. Women are the most
vulnerable and marginalised where kinship identity remains integral through patrilineal descent. Women in
the Project Area face education, economic, and organizational limitations to development.

Other economic stakeholders such as businessmen, traders and money lenders are allied with economic
elites in their economic relations to the landless and poor fishermen. The social and economic interactions
between the economically and socially well-off community groups and the poor and marginal groups is not
egalitarian and work to the disadvantage of the latter groups. Thus, stakeholders in the area fall into two
categories – those who benefit from the status quo and those who lose out.

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Due to high population growth rate, majority of the population in Sindh Province and coastal districts is
relatively young with more than 62% of the population below the age of 25 years. Elderly people who are
65 years or more account for around 2% of the population.88

4.1.2 Interactions between Communities and Community Groups (VCS, 3.19; CCB, CM1.1)

There were two categories of community groups identified as key stakeholders in the SBIA workshops (see
Sections 2.1.17 and 2.3.2). Firstly, there are those directly benefiting from the over exploitation of forests,
fisheries and other natural resources including poachers, livestock grazers and fuelwood collectors. Other
groups in this category are those that indirectly benefit by taking advantage of the situation, including
exploitative employers paying low wages, middlemen and micro-lenders lending at exorbitant interest rates.

Secondly, there are those who stand to lose due to the activities by groups in the first category. They include
artisanal fishers and the community in general losing access to or suffering diminished quality of many
ecosystem goods and services – now or in the future. Other groups included in this category are women
and children, who are particularly marginalised with no real access to income earning opportunities or
education.

The unsustainable use of mangroves, fisheries, biodiversity and other coastal and marine resources by the
first category of community groups (such as ‘fish lords’, open range livestock grazers, fuelwood gatherers,
and other coastal marine resource abusers as well as upland dwellers who divert fresh water flows from
the delta) and the exploitative practices adopted by employers, middlemen and money lenders work
together to the disadvantage of the second category of poor and marginal community groups (artisanal
fishermen, poor community members and daily wage earners, women, elderly, youth and children).

The individual and collective actions of the first category of community groups is leading to resources and
environmental degradation on which the subsistence income and livelihoods of the poor and marginal
groups depend and add to the poverty of these people by reducing their income and livelihood earning
opportunities and increasing the cost of living for them.

Notably the two groups identified above can overlap. Community members may stand to benefit from the
overexploitation of mangroves in the short term, and thus fall in to the first group. These same community
members and their families may suffer in the medium to long term from the destruction of the mangrove
ecosystems. In this way exploitation may be considered at times a “commons” issue, where individual and
short-term incentives are contrary to collective and long-term interests. The project addresses this dynamic
through education, community-led natural resource management, and the provision of alternative
livelihoods opportunities.

There are a number of obstacles to more equitable interactions between communities and groups in the
Project Zone. Some of these obstacles are personal, while others are organisational and cultural. Personal
obstacles to greater community interaction include low self-esteem and perceived lack of knowledge and
skills to interact with other groups, people’s comfort in their existing relationships, the perceived lack of

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time and resources for such interaction, and the multiple ways in which fears are forming barriers to
interacting with those who are perceived of having different social and economic status.

Organisational obstacles include the lack of or non-functioning of formal and informal organisations such
as village development committees, women organisations, which can provide appropriate platforms for
such interactions.

Cultural barriers include ethnocentrism, inertia and lack of initiative in the culture to take steps to avail and
build opportunities finding common grounds with others, and over-all lack of motivation for people to
acknowledge and value interaction.

The state of conflicting stakes, interests, rights, relationships and interactions between the two sets of
community groups (the haves and the have nots), which is existing in the baseline scenario, while may be
producing short-term gains for the first category of community groups, is not in the long-term interest of
both groups and is therefore not sustainable.

Potential sources of conflict in the communities and their mitigation strategies are given in Appendix 4.

4.1.3 High Conservation Values (CCB, CM1.2)

High Conservation Values (HCVs) are the critical biological, ecological, social, economic and cultural values
in ecosystems and landscapes that are the key values which need to be conserved in the management of
natural systems. HCV 4,5 and 6 relate to the community. The status of various HCVs are as follows:

High Conservation Value HCV 4

Environmental services

Qualifying Attribute 1. The Project Zone is part of a landscape that is

important for the provision of water and prevention of
floods
2. The Project Zone hold areas important for the
prevention of erosion and sedimentation
3. The Project Area is a part of landscapes that function
as a natural break to saltwater intrusion

Focal Area 1. Communities living inside the creeks or those very

close to mangrove areas depend on this
environmental service
2. This ecosystem service is especially important for
land owning communities and communities living on
the fringes of creeks

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3. All mangroves in the Project Zone are important from

the perspective of provision of regulating and
supporting ecosystem service

High Conservation Value HCV 5

Natural areas critical for meeting the basic needs of local

people

Qualifying Attribute The Project Zone plays an important role for meeting the
basic needs of local fishing communities as the mangrove
forests serve as nurseries and habitats for many fish and
shrimp species in their initial stages of life

Focal Area The whole of the Project Zone caters to the provisioning
ecosystem services

High Conservation Value HCV 6

Areas critical for maintaining the cultural identity of local

communities

Qualifying Attribute The Project Zone contains areas critical for maintaining the
cultural identity of local communities, as detailed in Section
4.1.1.

Focal Area The whole of the Project Zone supports the provision of
cultural ecosystem services

4.1.4 Without-Project Scenario: Community (CCB, CM1.3)

Under the without-project scenario, the majority of the local communities and various community groups,
particularly the poor and most vulnerable groups will be made worse off over time. For a description of the
characteristics of the communities in the non-project scenario, see Sections 2.3.2 and4.1.1

During the SBIA community workshops, after stakeholders had identified and prioritised the focal issues,
they were then analysed further to establish the causal logic leading to the problems and a Problem Flow
Diagram (PFD) for each of the focal issues was produced (See Section 2.1.11).

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A PFD is a situation analysis of the issue that represents stakeholders’ understanding of what drives the
existence of the focal issue. It aims to identify economic, political, institutional, social and/or cultural factors
that contribute to existence of the issue.

Next, work groups projected what would happen with the major direct threats (in red on the PFDs) identified
for each focal issue in the short-to-medium term (5-10 years) in the absence of the ARR project.

Table 30. Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and unsustainable use.

Focal issue aspect 5-10 years What will drive the change?

• No alternative supply of fuel as uptake of solar or a

sustainable alternative is too expensive for poor
communities
• No government intervention to improve
infrastructure and provide direct services
connections to homes
Forest loss Worsen • Greater demand for fuelwood due to population
growth
• Fuelwood collection becomes a viable livelihood
source as prices increase with demand
• No new construction techniques adopted and
reliance on wood as a building material increases
• No introduction of new technologies for cooking and
heating so continued inefficient use of resource

• Increase in livestock as population increase

Forest degradation Worsen • Continued unregulated grazing
• Poor law enforcement
• Fodder collection becomes viable livelihood source

Table 31. Poverty and impoverished community well-being.

Focal issue aspect 5-10 years What will drive the change?

• No accessible health facilities so people need to seek

health care services at distant bigger towns, with
travel and accommodation adding to their expenses
• Few schools in the area remain functional so children
need to be transported to far off locations to attend
increasing the financial burden on parents

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High living cost Remain unchanged • Lack of available clean water. People remain reliant
on expensive water sold in cans trucked in on
tankers from the cities

• Lack of education and skill – with no education,

villagers are not qualified to take better paid jobs
Low income Remain unchanged • Lack of access to affordable credit is a barrier to
setting up a family business
• Population pressure – increased competition for the
same resources

Table 32. Continued and accelerated wildlife and habitat loss and fisheries degradation.

Focal issue aspect 5-10 years What will drive the change?

• Lack of funds and other resources will continue to

contribute to inability to restore degraded mangroves
and wetland areas
• Due to inadequate advocacy work, there will be
continued lack of environmental water flows and
Inability to restore sediment supply into the delta area and thus the
degraded mangroves Worsen underlying soil and hydrological requirements of the
and wetland areas mangroves will not be met
• Sea level rise will continue to erode seaward side
mangroves and the non-establishment of mangroves
on the newly formed inter-tidal areas landward side
will continue to lead to shrinkage in the area of
mangrove ecosystem

• Rising costs will push fishing communities into

further debt forcing them to work year-round in a bid
to improve catch numbers
• Fishermen will be forced to abandon traditional
methods and use environmentally unfriendly nets to
increase catch. Poor law enforcement will allow the
practice to continue
Unsustainable Worsen • Increased population will increase demand for fish
fisheries and numbers of people fishing will increase, putting
excessive pressure on limited resources

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• Population growth and loss of habitat will make

human-wildlife conflict more likely
• Low levels of community awareness and lack of
engagement in wildlife and biodiversity conservation
• Poverty will mean poaching is seen as a lucrative
Human-wildlife conflict Worsen activity
• Poor law enforcement means wildlife law will not be
enforced and offenders not prosecuted

Table 33. Lack of Opportunity for Women

Focal issue aspect 5-10 years What will drive the change?

• Lack of funds for schools

• Lack of funds for bursaries
Lack of educational • Lack of focus on girls’ education and literacy
Remain unchanged
opportunities • Lack of community-wide economic opportunity and
uplift
• Time poverty

• Time poverty
• Lack of educational opportunities
Lack of Economic
Remain unchanged • Lack of assets, inheritance, or credit
Opportunities
• Lack of entrepreneurial opportunity
• Lack of healthcare and high healthcare costs

Lack of Leadership • Limited formal spaces for participation in civil

Remain unchanged society
Opportunities
• Traditional and patriarchal expectations

4.2 Net Positive Community Impacts

4.2.1 Expected Community Impacts (CCB, CM2.1)

The major project activities can be grouped into the following ten areas (see details in Section 2.1.17). All
the community-focused activities which the project plans to implement were identified during SBIA
community workshops described earlier (see Section 2.1.17).

Most of these are designed to help create greater awareness, capacity and financial security in the
communities, reducing the need to undertake unsustainable resource extraction from the Project Area.
They include:

1) Direct employment, and job creation through upscaled ARR

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2) Support for fishing communities and sustainable fisheries

3) Participatory land-use planning and awareness raising

4) Access to education for all

5) Access to safe drinking water and healthcare

6) Improved protection and law enforcement

7) Community based sustainable business development and access to microfinance

8) Sustainable energy development

9) Training of Sindh Wildlife and Forest Department

10) Promotion of various gender development and income generating activities for women

Theory of Change Statements

Based on the experience of the project partners, a literature review, and information obtained from the
SBIA workshop and various stakeholder consultations, a theory of change approach was applied to
substantiate the DBC-2 project rationale and to produce indicators for a CCB monitoring plan.

Interventions would mainly address the issues or factors projected in the preceding section as likely to get
worse in the absence of the project. These would thus constitute the project activities that if implemented
would follow the theory of change logic outlined below to lead to the desired outcomes.

Focal issue 1 – Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and unsustainable use: IF Alternative
sources of energy are made available to communities, IF authorities control unregulated free-range grazing,
IF communities become engaged in alternative livelihoods that are not destructive to the forest, IF
communities are employed to protect forests through Mangrove Stewardship Agreements, THEN mangrove
forests will be saved from deforestation and further degradation and will be enhanced and preserved for
future generations

Focal issue 2 – Poverty and impoverished community well-being: IF there are adequate and functional
health facilities, IF education is improved through better facilities and access through bursary schemes, IF
there is improved access to safe drinking water, IF large numbers of community members are employed
directly by the project to carry out restoration work, IF cheap microfinance is made available for
communities to pursue various business opportunities, IF women are facilitated to play a full role in local
economies, THEN people will have a lower cost of living, higher incomes and improved livelihoods.

Focal Issue 3 – Continued and accelerated wildlife and habitat loss and fisheries degradation: IF funds for
restoration of degraded and de-vegetated mangroves and wetlands areas are made available, IF advocacy
work is done for restoring environmental water flows and sediments inflows into the delta area, IF mangrove
ecosystems lost due to sea level rise are compensated through establishment of mangroves in the newly
formed inter-tidal areas, IF fishermen and fishing communities in the Project Zone are organised into well-
functioning Fisheries Stewardship Committees (FSCs), IF appropriate and pragmatic Standards for
Sustainable Fishing are developed in collaboration with these FSCs and adhered to, IF fishing communities
are facilitated in alternative income earning sources and sources of credit, IF sensitisation and awareness-
raising is conducted with local communities, IF security and law enforcement are strengthened, IF

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communities are mobilised to play an active role in the conservation and restoration of ecosystems through
ARR, THEN vast areas of degraded wetlands will be restored, poaching and habitat loss will decline leading
to improved wildlife populations and it will be possible to control illegal, unregulated, unreported and
unsustainable fishing.

Focal issue 4 – Continued impoverished living conditions for women and girls: IF women are supported,
facilitated, capacitated, and socio-economically empowered through bringing about improvements in their
access to resources, means of living, employment and business opportunities, and wider and easier access
to health, education, microfinance, energy, and other basic needs through awareness raising, social
organization, training and capacity building programs, networking, greater participation in planning,
implementation and decision-making, etc., THEN women will be socio-economically empowered and their
living conditions will improve.

Community group Community in general

Impact(s) Enhanced ecosystem goods and services and improved

livelihoods through better education, health, access to clean
water and direct employment

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct benefit

Change in well-being Major improvement in livelihoods including education, health,

food security and employment

Community group Community in general

Impact(s) Enhanced ecosystem goods and services and improved

livelihoods through healthy mangrove ecosystems

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct benefit

Change in well-being Major improvement in livelihoods including increased

availability of ecosystem services such as fisheries, climate
resiliency, forest products

Community group Community in general, women

Impact(s) Ability to access markets, credit and financing

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct benefit

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Change in well-being Ability to access credit on fair terms, ability to access resources
for more sustainable and profitable livelihoods. Direct
connection to markets in cities with better prices than Project
Zone

Community group Government and local authorities

Impact(s) Better execution of their mandate through improved training,

equipment, revenue collection and improved relations with
communities

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct benefit

Change in well-being Moderate gains in revenue but major gains in community

relations

Community group Youth and women

Impact(s) Availability of jobs, alternative livelihoods, organization

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct benefit

Change in well-being Major impact on youth and women, including jobs, vocational
training, market linkages and community groups

Community group Borrowers and debtors

Impact(s) Direct access to affordable credit and gains in profits through

payment of low interest rates on borrowed money

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct benefit

Change in well-being Major impact

Community group Fishermen

Impact(s) Direct access to affordable credit and gains in profits through

adoption of new technologies that promote sustainable fishing
practices

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Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct benefit

Change in well-being Major impact

Community group Daily wage paid labour

Impact(s) Availability of jobs, alternative livelihoods and reduced cost of

living

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct benefit

Change in well-being Major impact on daily wage paid labour

Community group Traders and middlemen (including employers and lenders)

Impact(s) Reduced profits due to increased costs of goods or services and

shrinking of customer base

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted indirect cost

Change in well-being Potentially minor to moderate reduction in profits in the short

term

Community group Poachers, fuelwood collectors, fodder collectors

Impact(s) Reduced income

Type of benefit/cost/risk Predicted direct cost

Change in well-being Potentially significant loss of livelihood sources in the short term

4.2.2 Negative Community Impact Mitigation (VCS, 3.19; CCB, CM2.2)

Two main community groups are predicted to suffer potential costs from implementation of project
activities. The DCB-2 will mitigate for these negative impacts as follows:

Poachers, fuelwood collectors and illegal livestock grazers: although these are illegal activities, those
undertaking them for basic livelihood support will be considered for direct employment in project
restoration work. Regardless, they will have access to other general community benefits like improved
ecosystem services, access to clean water and better education and health facilities. Further details
regarding the mitigation strategies for this group can be found in Section 4.5.3.

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Traders, middlemen and employers: this group will see diminished profits in the short-term, however, they
should enjoy greater stability in the long-term from conducting legitimate business, leading to reduced
conflicts with the law, employees and community. They will also benefit in the long term from sustainable
ecosystem goods and services.

4.2.3 Net Positive Community Well-Being (VCS, 3.19; CCB, CM2.3, GL1.4)

Focal issue 1 – Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and unsustainable use: The direct threats
to forest destruction and degradation are: i) forest clearing for fuelwood and fodder, ii) uncontrolled and
unregulated livestock grazing, and iii) poor law enforcement. In the absence of the project, these are
expected to worsen and thereby leading to forest loss and diminishment of associated ecosystem services
to the communities. The Result Chain Diagram (Section 2.1.17.3) details the theory of change logic and
depicts how DCB-2 aims to curb forest loss and degradation.

Focal issue 2 – Poverty and impoverished community well-being: The direct threats to poor community
livelihoods were shown to be: i) rising living costs, and ii) low income. In the absence of the project, these
are expected to worsen and thereby increase poverty and livelihood vulnerability. The Result Chain Diagram
(Section 2.1.17.3) details the theory of change logic and depicts how DBC-2 aims to reduce poverty and
improve overall livelihoods over the project’s lifetime.

Focal issue 3 – Continued and accelerated wildlife and habitat loss and fisheries degradation: The direct
threats to wildlife and its habitat are i) Greater human-wildlife conflict ii) increased poaching iii) poor law
enforcement iv) continued unsustainable fishing and v) inability to restore degraded and de-vegetated
mangrove ecosystems. In the absence of the project, these are expected to worsen and thereby lead to
wildlife declines. The Result Chain Diagram (Section 2.1.17.3) details the theory of change logic and depicts
how DBC-2 aims to reduce these pressures leading to improved habitat and wildlife populations.

Focal issue 4 – Continued impoverished living conditions for women and girls: DBC-2 project will mobilize,
incentivise, and channelise finance, technical and material resources into women empowerment related
activities. By so doing it will bring about net positive impacts on women empowerment and well-being
through bringing about improvements in the following six vital areas for women: income and assets,
education and knowledge, health and hygiene, food security, greater opportunities for leadership, and time
savings for them.

The main aim of the community development component of the project is to enhance the well-being and
livelihoods of the local communities, women and other marginalised groups and households through
increasing their capabilities and reducing their vulnerabilities so that they can sustain their livelihoods both
now and in the future. Under the with-project scenario, most of the direct and indirect causal factors of
poverty and resource degradation will be addressed through the various project interventions. The Project
Zone plays a critical role in maintaining regulatory and supporting ecosystem services provided by the
mangrove forests. These services among others include hydrological services, flood and tsunamis, cyclones
and floods damages control, pollination of agricultural crops, shoreline stabilisation and soil erosion control,
and prevention of saltwater intrusion into productive agricultural lands.

The mangrove forests of the Project Zone also provide various provisioning services to the local
communities. These are traditionally used by Project Zone communities for the provision of numerous
ecosystem goods and services, such as spawning sites for fish and shrimps on which the livelihoods of

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fishing communities in the Project Area depend. The communities also benefit from the clean air and other
genetic resources and biodiversity of the Project Zone.

Figure 29. Biodiversity and restored mangroves in the Project Zone, along with their vital ecosystem
services, will be actively protected and enhanced.

The project has been conceived as a triple bottom-line project that is simultaneously working on climate
change mitigation, community development and biodiversity conservation in this particularly vulnerable
region of Pakistan.

Under the project scenario, the vast natural capital of the Project Zone will be safeguarded and further
enhanced. As a result of project interventions, more than 193,495 ha of de-vegetated mangrove areas will
be reforested and covered with mangrove vegetation. Moreover, Project Zone communities will be assisted
to develop ways that ensure sustainable use of the natural resources found in the area and a system of
resource use in which the benefits are retained locally.

With the increase in forest cover in the Project Zone, the access of all 23,185 plus local community
members in the 39 villages to various natural resources (fishes, shrimps, fibre, water, air, soil and genetic
resources) will be improved throughout the Project Zone of 250,000 ha. The Gold Level climate change
adaptation benefits of the project regarding community well-being are outlined in Section 3.4.
Consequently, everybody in the community is better-off under the with-project scenario due to increased
income earning and livelihoods making opportunities on a sustainable basis.

The opposite of this net positive community well-being in the project scenario is the baseline scenario under
which all Project Zone community groups will suffer in the long run, as any short-term gains from over-
exploitation of natural resources are counterbalanced due to the severe degradation and the irreversible
loss of natural capital.

4.2.4 High Conservation Values Protected (CCB, CM2.4)

As described below, none of the HCVs related to community well-being will be negatively affected by the
project.

HCV4 – Conservation of areas with critical ecosystem services – regulating and supporting services: The
project will support planting and/or assisted natural regeneration over 193,495 ha for maintaining the
various ecosystem services of mangrove forests.

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HCV5 – Conservation of areas critical for meeting basic community needs – provisioning services: As above,
the project will re-vegetate 193,495 ha of de-vegetated mangrove areas for their various ecosystem
services including those meeting the basic needs of local communities. The sustainable fisheries initiatives
of the project will also ensure that this vital livelihood will meet community needs into the future.

HCV6 – Conservation of areas critical for traditional identity of communities – cultural, information and
recreational services: The project will facilitate the local communities in availing the various cultural,
information and recreational services of mangrove forests. The economic values of the cultural, information
and tourism values of mangrove forests have been estimated in literature.89 Thus, under the with-project
scenario, areas identified as culturally important and/or having touristic values will be protected and
developed.

4.3 Other Stakeholder Impacts

4.3.1 Impacts on Other Stakeholders (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, CM3.1)

The project is not anticipated to negatively impact any stakeholders other than to those outlined in Section
4.2.2, for which mitigation strategies are planned. During the design phase of the project potential offsite
groups were identified and include other Government Departments, private sector service providers and
NGOs. None are considered likely to be significantly impacted by the project because the Project Zone itself
was designed to incorporate all those groups who are likely to be significantly affected. Positive impacts
that the project activities are likely to cause on the well-being of other stakeholders include:

Increased capacity of these stakeholders to engage and interact with Project Zone communities in relation
to services provision, conflict resolution, participatory forest and wildlife and fisheries conservation, village
land use planning, conservation agriculture, improved livestock management and environmental education

Increased awareness on issues ranging from forest conservation, agriculture, land tenure and improving
village governance as a result of awareness raising activities

Enhanced funds availability from government share of carbon credits revenue and revenue from other
Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) by the Government of Sindh and an understanding of the concepts
of PES by these other stakeholders

4.3.2 Mitigation of Negative Impacts on Other Stakeholders (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, CM3.2)

There are no negative impacts on other stakeholders, and therefore no mitigation strategies are required.
This section is not applicable.

4.3.3 Net Impacts on Other Stakeholders (VCS, 3.18, 3.19; CCB, CM3.3)

As there are no negative impacts on other stakeholders, the positive impacts described in Section 4.3.1
are the net impacts on other stakeholders.

89
Himes-Cornell, A. 2018. Mangrove Ecosystem Service Values and Methodological Approaches to
Valuation: Where do we stand? Frontiers in Marine Science 5: 376.

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4.4 Community Impact Monitoring

4.4.1 Community Monitoring Plan (CCB, CM4.1, CM4.2, GL1.4, GL2.2, GL2.3, GL2.5)

A community monitoring plan has been prepared and is available Appendix 16. The community monitoring
plan is meant to achieve the project’s objectives for over-all communities and specific community groups,
and is in congruence with the project’s theory of change statement and causal chain model as given in
Section 2.1.17. The various community-related interventions aim at increasing income and lowering cost
of living and contributing to their over-all improved living conditions and well-being. Towards these ends,
the project is providing support in large-scale restoration of degraded mangrove land for increased income
and employment opportunities and access to various ecosystem services of restored mangrove forests;
business development and access to micro-finance; funding for healthcare and education; access to clean
water and better sanitation; support for fishing communities, women, poor and other vulnerable groups;
support for alternative income and livelihood sources; support for renewable energy sources; and
conservation of historical and heritage sites and cultural artefacts, etc.

This community monitoring plan has the following specific components, provisions and indicators. It
identifies communities, community groups and other stakeholders to be monitored, variables to be
monitored, types of measurements and sampling methods, and the frequency of monitoring and reporting
for each type and method. It is based on variables directly linked to the project’s objectives for communities
and community groups and to predicted outputs, outcomes and impacts identified in the project’s causal
model related to the well-being of communities. It assesses differentiated impacts for each of the
community groups and include an evaluation by the affected community groups. It also assesses the
effectiveness of measures taken to maintain or enhance all identified HCVs related to community well-
being. Besides it includes indicators of well-being impacts and risks for small holder/community members
and impacts on women as well as has indicators for adaptation benefits for communities.

To ensure efficient and effective implementation of the community monitoring plan, the project has
prepared detailed policy and SOPs for implementation of this plan. The policy and procedures documents
provide details of the implementation mechanisms as well as experts and field team personnel who will
carry out and oversee the implementation of the plan.

The project theory of change (see Section 2.1.17) provides the basis for the selection of project
interventions/activities, outputs, objectives/outcomes, impacts, the underlying assumptions and the
selection of indicators to use for long term community monitoring.

The adopted monitoring plan is compatible and in line with the main parameters discussed in Section 4.2.1
about the assessment of the current status, without-project baseline scenario, and the with-project
scenario. These parameters will provide insights into the project’s effects on the major community well-
being related parameters, community related HCV related parameters and the Gold Standard Related
Exceptional criteria related parameters.

DBC-2 shall use two major data sources for the selected indicators: Internal reporting systems and
household and village level surveys. In addition, Focal Group Discussions with Village Development
Committees will be used to validate findings and obtain any further information/clarification, while
Government departments will be visited for secondary data and general community statistics.

4.4.2 Monitoring Plan Dissemination (CCB, CM4.3)

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Dissemination of the monitoring plan for community benefits will follow what is described in Sections 2.3.4
and 3.3.4 on the dissemination of project summary documents and of the climate monitoring plan.

4.5 Optional Criterion: Exceptional Community Benefits

4.5.1 Exceptional Community Criteria (CCB, GL2.1)

Pakistan is a medium human development country but more than 70% of Project Zone households live
below the national poverty line90. Thus, the Project Zone qualifies as a rural area with a high concentration
of the population living under the national poverty line.

4.5.2 Short-term and Long-term Community Benefits (CCB, GL2.2)

The project has developed an integrated benefit-sharing mechanism in partnership with the communities
(Section 4.5.6) including both direct and indirect community benefits. Through this mangrove management,
DBC-2 is providing exceptional community benefits to the entire population (more than 23,000 people) of
the Project Zone. Key community benefits among include the following:

Livelihood and income-earning benefits: Mangroves provide spawning sites and nursery habitats for fishes
and shrimps on which the entire fishing community in the Project Zone depend for their livelihoods and
income earning

Coastal protection benefits: The whole of the Project Zone communities is getting increased protection from
tsunamis and floods damages

Climate change adaptation benefits: The entire coastal community is benefiting from the climate change
adaptation benefits of mangroves (see Section 3.4)

Pollution prevention and control benefits: Mangroves act as filters against sea water pollution from which
the whole community benefits

Erosion control and shoreline stabilisation: Due to their wave dampening action, mangroves prevent and
control coastal land erosion and thus help ensure shoreline stabilisation. All the coastal communities are
beneficiary of this ecosystem function of mangroves

Control of saltwater intrusion into adjoining lands: Saltwater intrusion has become a big issue in coastal
areas on account of sea level rise due to climate change and global warming. Mangroves help in controlling
intrusion of salt water into adjoining agricultural lands. This helps the farming community in particular in
the Project Zone

Increase of agricultural and livestock productivity: The introduction of climate-smart agricultural practices
and improved livestock health and over-all herd management practices will lead to increase in agricultural
and livestock productivity. In addition, the insects living in the adjoining mangrove forests help in the
pollination of agricultural and horticultural crops thereby increasing the production of these crops and thus
increasing productivity of their agricultural lands

90
UNDP, (2015) Multidimensional Poverty In Pakistan, P45

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The project is also generating short-term and long-term community benefits through opportunities creation,
security and reduction of vulnerabilities to various types of shocks (economic, environmental, and social),
empowerment, and employment generation, which are supportive of the various Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) including poverty reduction, income and food security, and climate resilience (see Section
2.1.18). The expected short- and long-term benefits regarding these net positive impacts are described in
Section 4.2.1. Other project interventions include:

Water and sanitation: DBC-2 will improve the human capital in the Project Zone by investing in safe and
affordable drinking water supply and bringing about improvements in hygiene facilities. Under the project,
two non-functional Reverse Osmosis (RO) plants located in the Project Zone will be made functional. To
improve sanitation and access to drinking water, the project will make investments in the provision and
management of freshwater and sanitation facilities on a local level in the area.

Health: DBC-2 is paying special attention to and working on resolving the various community health related
issues in the Project Zone such as the prevalence of communicable, non-communicable and preventable
diseases, malnutrition and under-nourishment, proper coverage by Expanded Immunisation Program (EIP),
and ensuring improved environmental health. It will achieve this through improving the access of local
communities to all the five Rural Health Centre and Basic Health Units (BHUs) located in the Project Zone.
DBC-2 will also invest in upgrading facilities and providing equipment at these locations, as well as
constructing satellite health units in the most inaccessible regions. For this purpose, DBC-2 anticipates
signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Indus Hospital for the provision of different health facilities
to the local communities at as close to households as possible, including immunisation.

In addition to these measures there are a number of women and mother and child specific health services
that are part and parcel of project interventions. These include trainings in: Antenatal Care; CBHE:
Community Based Health Education; CBHTP: Community Based Health Training Program; Contraceptive
Devices including IUCD: Intrauterine Contraceptive Device; MCH: Maternal and Child Health; PAB:
Prevention at Birth; PMTCT: Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission; and PNC: Postnatal Care.

Education: There are a total of 26 schools in the Project Zone of which only 14 are functional. The project
will make at least 10 of the non-functional schools functional again.

Community participation: Under the project, the local communities will not only become more cohesive
units but also more inclusive in terms of the involvement of marginal groups and women in the planning,
design, implementation, monitoring as well as decision making. It is anticipated that a total of 50 village
organisations, 25 male and 25 female organisations will be established in the Project Zone.

Fisheries, agriculture and livestock: DBC-2 will liaise with Fisheries, Agriculture and Livestock Departments
to improve the provision of extension with regard to sustainable fish harvesting, access to Microfinance,
practice of climate-smart and saline agriculture, and increasing the productivity of livestock sector through
vaccination of their animals and adoption of proper herd management, feeding and breeding practices.

Employment opportunities: Due to the implementation of various labour-intensive activities in the Project
Area, all of which are providing employment opportunities for the local communities on their doorstep, the
project has substantially enhanced income earning opportunities. Local community members are being
engaged in various NRM related activities such as watch and ward of existing mangrove forests and newly
planted areas under Mangroves Stewardship Agreements, seeds and propagules collection of the various
mangrove species, mangroves nurseries raising and planting of seeds and propagules.

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Women’s empowerment: The project will create short and long-term benefits for women living in and around
the Project Zone primarily across 6 domains: time savings, income and assets, education and knowledge,
leadership, food security, and health. The project’s implementation team will include senior leadership
positions devoted to addressing these issues and female leadership in both the field and office-based
operations. The formation of women’s collectives, market linkages, employment and trade opportunities,
and healthcare will address the domains listed above. Additionally, project activities such as the provision
of new energy sources and water access will create time savings for activities that are traditionally allocated
to women in the Project Zone. The project will create a specific set of indicators and metrics to monitor
progress on creating positive benefits by and for women.

The above human capital development interventions of the project will be available to the whole population
of the total Project Area (more than 23,185 people) and therefore the total of the coastal communities will
benefit from these measures.

4.5.3 Community Participation Risks (CCB, GL2.3)

Sixty meetings have been held with community members throughout the Project Area to discuss the risks
for communities to participate in the project. These discussions focused on how the project would affect
the income, livelihoods and overall well-being of the communities, and what will be the roles and
responsibilities of communities for them to be eligible as project partners and getting support in terms of
various community development activities. In partnership with local communities, the project identified the
following anticipated risks, mitigants, and changes to project design to reduce participation risks:

Table 34. Risks related to community participation.

Community income, livelihood

and over-all well-being related Anticipated risk Risk mitigation strategy
area

Reduced access to mangrove Some coastal communities • Development of energy

forests for fuelwood collection particularly feel that they have plantations
by the communities living inside been deprived of their energy • Promotion of fuel-
the creeks sources and thus may get efficient cooking stoves
aggrieved. • Facilitation in provision
of alternative energy
sources
• Project planning to
ensure activities are
implemented in areas
with community support

Reduced access to mangrove Some coastal communities may • Promotion of fodder

forests for fodder collection by feel that they have been collection practices that
the communities deprived of their fodder sources are not harmful to
and thus may get aggrieved. mangrove forests

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• Promotion of alternative
fodders

Reduced access to mangrove Some coastal communities may • Promotion of rotational

forests for their use as open feel that they have been grazing systems
range grazing area for their deprived of their free-range
livestock grazing areas and thus may get
aggrieved

More vigilant controls and Some coastal communities may • Awareness raising
restrictions on certain types of feel aggrieved with effective law • Training and capacity
land uses in the Project Area enforcement building
• Provision of facilities for
increased patrolling
• Promotion of alternative
livelihoods and income
opportunities

Reduced income in the short- Some coastal communities may • Promotion of value
term for adoption of sustainable feel aggrieved with effective law chain in fisheries
fish harvesting practices enforcement. products
• Promotion of increased
access to cheap and
institutional credit
sources
• Facilitation in fair
weighing system for fish
products
• Facilitation in ensuring
fair market prices for
fish produce
• Promotion of alternative
livelihood sources

4.5.4 Marginalized and/or Vulnerable Community Groups (CCB, GL2.4)

Community Group Coastal fishing communities

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Net positive impacts • Increased fisheries resources in the long-run due to

protection of existing mangrove forests and planting of
new forest areas
• Better protection of damages resulting from
tsunamis/cyclones and floods
• Increased income opportunities
• Access to credit facilities at easy and favourable terms
and conditions
• Increased employment opportunities
• Better livelihood opportunities
• Improved access to safe and affordable drinking water
facilities
• Better and expanded access to sanitation and hygiene
facilities
• Improved access to educational facilities
• Better medical care and health facilities
• Improved and expanded access to physical capital
• Improved and expanded access to HCVs areas
• Social capital development and enhanced
empowerment
• Improved linkages with other communities and other
stakeholders and service providers
• Improved access to information, and enhanced
knowledge and skills levels
• Clean ambient air
• Reduced exposure to various types of hazards
• Greater involvement in community development
activities

Benefit access • Easier, expanded and more secure access to all of

the above benefits

Negative impacts • Negative impacts not anticipated. Only short-term

reduction in fish catch which will be compensated
through better weighing practices, better price and
alternative income and livelihood opportunities.

Community Group • Coastal communities engaged in agriculture and crop

husbandry

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Net positive impacts • Increased agricultural produce production due to

productivity enhancement, soil erosion prevention,
prevention and control of sea intrusion, pollination of
agricultural crops by insects residing in mangrove
forests, etc.
• Better protection of damages resulting from
tsunamis/cyclones and floods
• Increased income opportunities
• Access to credit facilities at easy and favourable terms
and conditions
• Increased employment opportunities
• Better livelihood opportunities
• Improved access to safe and affordable drinking water
facilities
• Better and expanded access to sanitation and hygiene
facilities
• Improved access to educational facilities
• Better medical care and health facilities
• Improved and expanded access to physical capital
• Improved and expanded access to HCVs areas
• Social capital development and enhanced
empowerment
• Improved linkages with other communities and other
stakeholders and service providers
• Improved access to information, and enhanced
knowledge and skills levels
• Clean ambient air
• Reduced exposure to various types of hazards
• Greater involvement in community development
activities

Benefit access • Easier, expanded and more secure access to all of

the above benefits

Negative impacts • Negative impacts not anticipated

Community Group Coastal communities engaged in livestock raising

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Net positive impacts • Increased access to livestock health and vaccination

program and training in improved livestock herd,
feeding and breeding management
• Better protection of damages resulting from
tsunamis/cyclones and floods
• Increased income opportunities
• Access to credit facilities at easy and favourable terms
and conditions
• Increased employment opportunities
• Better livelihood opportunities
• Improved access to safe and affordable drinking water
facilities
• Better and expanded access to sanitation and hygiene
facilities
• Improved access to educational facilities
• Better medical care and health facilities
• Improved and expanded access to physical capital
• Improved and expanded access to HCVs areas
• Social capital development and enhanced
empowerment
• Improved linkages with other communities and other
stakeholders and service providers
• Improved access to information, and enhanced
knowledge and skills levels
• Clean ambient air
• Reduced exposure to various types of hazards
• Greater involvement in community development
activities

Benefit access • Easier, expanded and more secure access to all of

the above benefits

Negative impacts • Negative impacts not anticipated. Only short-term

reduction in income from reduced access to
mangrove fodder and use of mangroves as open-
range grazing areas. These will be compensated
through improved livestock health and vaccination
and improvements in livestock herd management,
feeding and breeding practices as well as alternative
income and livelihood opportunities.

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Community Group Coastal communities engaged in daily wage labour

Net positive impacts • Increased income opportunities from work in coastal

tourism activities
• Better protection of damages resulting from
tsunamis/cyclones and floods
• Increased income opportunities
• Access to credit facilities at easy and favourable terms
and conditions
• Increased employment opportunities
• Better livelihood opportunities
• Improved access to safe and affordable drinking water
facilities
• Better and expanded access to sanitation and hygiene
facilities
• Improved access to educational facilities
• Better medical care and health facilities
• Improved and expanded access to physical capital
• Improved and expanded access to HCVs areas
• Social capital development and enhanced
empowerment
• Improved linkages with other communities and other
stakeholders and service providers
• Improved access to information, and enhanced
knowledge and skills levels
• Clean ambient air
• Reduced exposure to various types of hazards
• Greater involvement in community development
activities

Benefit access • Easier, expanded and more secure access to all of

the above benefits

Negative impacts • Negative impacts not anticipated.

Community Group Women

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Net positive impacts • Funding for women’s and girls’ bursaries

• Funded educational facilities leading to improved
access
• Improved literacy
• Access to market linkages leading to better prices for
products
• Improved linkages with other communities and other
stakeholders and service providers
• Increased income opportunities from work in various
employment opportunities created under the project
• Access to credit facilities at easy and favourable terms
and conditions
• Better livelihood opportunities
• Reduction in time poverty and unpaid work
• Improved access to safe and affordable drinking water
facilities
• Better and expanded access to sanitation and hygiene
facilities
• Better medical care and health facilities
• Improved and expanded access to HCVs areas
• Social capital development and enhanced
empowerment through participation in Women’s
Organisations
• Improved access to information, and enhanced
knowledge and skills levels
• Clean ambient air
• Reduced exposure to various types of hazards
• Greater involvement in community development
activities

Benefit access • Easier, expanded and more secure access to all of

the above benefits

Negative impacts Negative impacts not anticipated.

Community Group Landless poor and other marginal groups

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Net positive impacts • Increased income opportunities from work in various

employment opportunities created by the project
• Better protection of damages resulting from
tsunamis/cyclones and floods
• Increased income opportunities
• Access to credit facilities at easy and favourable terms
and conditions
• Increased employment opportunities
• Better livelihood opportunities
• Improved access to safe and affordable drinking water
facilities
• Better and expanded access to sanitation and hygiene
facilities
• Improved access to educational facilities
• Better medical care and health facilities
• Improved and expanded access to physical capital
• Improved and expanded access to HCVs areas
• Social capital development and enhanced
empowerment through participation in Village
Development Committees
• Improved linkages with other communities and other
stakeholders and service providers
• Improved access to information, and enhanced
knowledge and skills levels
• Clean ambient air
• Reduced exposure to various types of hazards
• Greater involvement in community development
activities

Benefit access • Easier, expanded and more secure access to all of the
above benefits
• To ensure that marginalised and/or vulnerable
smallholder/community members have access to
project benefits, the following measures are being and
will be taken:
• Addressing the problem of elite capture of benefits The
whole communities will be informed of the various
project benefits and information related to various
project benefits will be shared in community meetings
which will be held in open sessions.

• Dealing with the problem of exclusion

The representation of small holders and marginal
groups in various village level bodies such as village

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development committees, women organisations,

MSAs, FSAs, etc. will be ensured.

• Dedicated project interventions for smallholders and

marginal groups
A number of project interventions have been
specifically designed for poverty reduction and well-
being improvement of small holders and marginal
groups. These among others include specific project
activities (such as provision of solar system to small
and poor communities living inside creeks), inclusion in
MSAs, inclusion in FSAs, business support and
facilitation to marginal groups and women, provision of
loans and access to other financial resources,
networking, etc.

• Lack of access to information and knowledge and skills

Special modules and programs have been designed for
awareness raising, training and capacity building of
small holders and marginal groups as well as women.

• Dealing with problem of exploitation

To deal with the problem of exploitation by lenders,
purchasers, middlemen, employers and other agents,
the following measures will be taken. Linking to
institutional credit providers such as Akhuwat
Provision of direct credit through the project
mechanism
Facilitation in provision of cold storage facilities for
small scale fishers. Facilitation in market access.
Engagement in various project activities. Skills and
capacity building to negotiate with middlemen and
employer for fair return and wages

Negative impacts Negative impacts not anticipated.

4.5.5 Net Impacts on Women (CCB, GL2.5)

Women’s empowerment and the corresponding benefits are one of the four key focal issues addressed by
project activities. The project has co-designed this approach with local communities, seeking to generate
impact across six domains: time savings, income and assets, education and knowledge, leadership, food
security, and health. Project activities include awareness raising, training and capacity building, social

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mobilisation and social organisation, creation of employment and business opportunities, and giving equal
access to decision making processes. The project will run a series of specific programs, as discussed in
previous sections, targeted towards women. Community activities that are specific to women include:

• Targeted bursary schemes

• Education and literacy funding
• Market linkage and entrepreneurial support programs
• Provision of microfinance or other credit programs for women
• Gender-specific healthcare
• Sanitation and hygiene facilities
• Organization of women’s groups and governance structures
• Direct employment targeted to women
In addition to ensure that the project generates net positive impacts on the well-being of women and that
women participate in or influence decision making, the project is already taking and will further scale up
the following measures to improve the accessibility of all benefits by women in the project:

1. Addressing the problem of men capture of benefits

Exclusive information meetings will be held with women whereby they will be informed of the
various project benefits.

2. Dealing with the problem of exclusion

To address the problem of women exclusion, women organisations have been and will be
established throughout the Project Zone and women will be given representation in various
forums established under the project.

3. Dedicated project interventions for smallholders and marginal groups

A number of project interventions have been specifically designed for poverty reduction and
well-being improvement of women.

These among others include women health related interventions, focus on girls’ education and
adult literacy programs for women, special bursary schemes for girls, special business
employment and opportunities for women in poultry farming, livestock rearing, kitchen
gardening, Sindhi handicrafts making, crab farming, etc., provision of loans and access to
other financial resources, networking, etc.

4. Lack of access to information and knowledge and skills

Special modules and programs have been designed for awareness raising, training and
capacity building of women.

5. Dealing with problem of exploitation

To deal with the problem of exploitation by lenders, purchasers, middlemen, employers and
other agents, the following measures will be taken:

• Linking to institutional credit providers such as Akhuwat specifically for women

• Provision of direct credit through the project mechanism targeted for women
• Facilitation in provision of facilities for business by women

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• Facilitation in market access such as Design Houses in larger markets

• Engagement in various project activities
• Skills and capacity building to negotiate with middlemen and employer for fair return and wages
These various project interventions are all meant to increase the economic and social mobility of women.
As a result of increased participation in social and economic activities, women will be in a better position
to influence decisions affecting their lives. All these changes will positively affect the majority of women in
the Project Zone. There are no foreseen negative impacts on women associated with the project.

4.5.6 Benefit Sharing Mechanisms (CCB, GL2.6)

The Benefit Sharing Mechanisms has been described in detail in Section 2.5.8.

4.5.7 Benefits, Costs, and Risks Communication (VCS, 3.18; CCB, GL2.7)

Development and ARR projects have benefits, costs and potentially risks associated with them. These need
to be communicated to the local communities and other stakeholders in a truthful manner so as to obtain
their Free, Prior and Informed Consent at the design and planning stage, implementation stage, and later
on in monitoring and evaluation stage. To achieve this communication, the following steps are being
undertaken by the project:

• Develop proper understanding of the benefits, costs and potential risks of the project in close
consultation with communities and other stakeholder groups
• Categorise the community groups and stakeholder groups who would be the project beneficiaries,
bearing direct or indirect costs related to the project and potential risks associated with the project
• Train and build capacity of relevant project staff to fully comprehend the benefits, costs, and
potential risks associated with the project and the community and stakeholder groups who would
be impacted
• Develop a mitigation plan for addressing the negative impacts and potential risks of the project
• Develop a communication strategy for the dissemination of various aspects of the project including
its benefits, costs and potential risks and the groups of community and stakeholders who would
be positively or potentially negatively impacted
• Develop proper institutional arrangements and make the necessary budgetary provisions for the
dissemination of project information in timely manner to the concerned groups
• Have proper mechanisms and procedures in place to effectively address the risks and
communication of the information pertaining to the project’s benefits, costs and potential risks
• Hold necessary consultative meetings with the communities and stakeholders to share with and
agree on the identified benefits, costs and mitigation strategies for addressing the risks with the
concerned quarters
• Encourage the communities and stakeholders to establish a relevant forum at their level to tackle
these issues
• Document the consultative meeting process regarding the benefits, costs and risks communication
• Implement the risk mitigation plan and monitor the results
• Document any lessons learnt
• Adapt the mitigation plan in light of the lessons learnt

4.5.8 Governance and Implementation Structures (CCB, GL2.8)

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To implement the community development component of the project, proper governance and
implementation structures are needed at the project level as well as the community level. Therefore, the
project has established a Community Development, Extension and Gender Development Directorate in its
organisational set-up.

This directorate is staffed by qualified professionals, both male and female, who specialise in community
development, extension and gender development. The experts from this directorate regularly undertake
field visits and coordinate with the local communities and other stakeholders with respect to the proper
implementation of the community development component of the project.

The directorate staff has also identified key informants and focal persons amongst the community
members and stakeholders to give them regular feedback.

At the community level, 25 village development committees and 25 women organisations have already
been established to represent their particular villages and interact with the directorate staff of the project
to discuss and agree on various community development related interventions designing, planning,
implementation and participatory monitoring.

These village level organisations comprise of from 6-15 village representatives elected/selected by the
respective village. These village organisations are socially inclusive and include representative from various
ethnic and socio-economic groups within the community.

Regular meetings are held with these village organisations in a culturally appropriate manner at designated
places, times and with already agreed meeting agendas. The proceedings of these consultative meetings
are properly documented and circulated.

Decisions taken in these meetings are implemented through appropriate entities to which responsibility for
implementation was assigned. The project also has put in place a robust feedback and grievance redress
mechanism (Section 2.3.15).

As the project is implemented, it is anticipated that a greater proportion of these field staff can be hired
from the local communities within the Project Zone, particularly as the educational elements of the
project progress (Section 4.5.9 for further detail on capacity development)

4.5.9 Smallholders/Community Members Capacity Development (CCB, GL2.9)

The stakeholder groups in the Project Zone include fishing communities, farming and livestock owning
communities, women, youth, daily wage earners, business community, local level organisations, Forest,
Wildlife and Fisheries Department staff and staff of other government departments and service providers.

Based on meetings and discussions held with these stakeholders, the awareness raising and training and
capacity building needs of community members and stakeholders’ groups have been identified and
assessed by the proponent.

To cater to the identified needs, a number of awareness raising and training and capacity building sessions
are being designed, organised and implemented in the following thematic areas:

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• Basic understanding of the Indus Delta area and its coastal and marine environment and coastal
and marine resources of the area
• Coastal and marine ecosystems and their ecosystem services and values including High
Conservation Values areas in the Indus Delta
• Threats to and main drivers of degradation of coastal and marine ecosystems and their services
• Climate change and its impacts in the Delta Area including sea level rise, saltwater intrusion,
coastal erosion, droughts, flooding and other climate-related disasters
• Disasters and disasters risk reduction and management
• Basic understanding about blue carbon and ARR/RWE and AUWD projects
• Focal areas of DBC-2 project, its theory of change and project interventions logic
• Social and biodiversity impact assessment of DBC-2 project interventions
• Participatory socio-economic survey methods and techniques
• Participatory biodiversity assessment methods and techniques
• Stakeholder engagement and free, prior and informed consent
• Marginal groups and their social and economic empowerment
• Potential risks and risks mitigation and minimisation strategies for blue carbon projects
• Blue carbon benefits and benefits distribution system
• Feedback and grievances redress mechanism of DBC-2 project
• Negotiations and conflict resolution mechanisms
• Integrated and participatory coastal and marine resources planning, implementation, monitoring
and management
• Voluntary guidelines, standards and code of conduct for sustainable fishing and other marine
resources
• Fish Stewardship Committees and their role in sustainable fishing and other marine resources
• Mangrove Stewardship Agreements and their role in mangroves conservation and sustainable
management
• Biodiversity Conservation Committees and their role in biodiversity conservation and sustainable
management
• Microfinance and institutional credit and how to access it
• Development of common institutional platforms for integrated and coordinated work in pursuit of
biodiversity conservation and sustainable management
• The need for action research and greater knowledge generation and dissemination on coastal and
marine resources conservation and sustainable management
• Environmental water flows and their role in sustaining the delta and marine resource
• Improved planning, policies and governance mechanisms coastal and marine resources
conservation and sustainable management
• Local partnerships development for enhanced and upscaled actions for coastal and marine
conservation
• Marine Protected Areas and their role in coastal and marine resources conservation and
sustainable management
• Nature-based solutions and their role in climate change mitigation and adaption and biodiversity
conservation
• Energy conservation and the role of renewable energy sources in mangrove conservation

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These capacity sessions are components of a larger educational effort that will also include
investments in formal education (eg. refurbishment and funding of schools, bursaries, etc).
Collectively, this will provide both targeted information as well as the foundation for increasing
community engagement and participation in project implementation. As these programs evolve and
literacy rates improve, it is anticipated that increasing leadership in the areas listed above will vest to
the local communities.

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5 Biodiversity
5.1 Without-Project Biodiversity Scenario

5.1.1 Existing Conditions (VCS, 3.19; CCB, B1.1)

Location and general description

DBC-2 is working to restore an ecosystem of regional and global significance. This effort is one of the largest
and most ambitious nature restoration efforts occurring in south Asia, and one of the largest reforestation
projects globally. Collectively with DBC-1, this effort represents a marquee biodiversity initiative in Pakistan.

The DBC-2 Project Zone is located in the Indus Ecoregion, identified by the WWF’s Global 200 as a
biodiversity hotspot91. Located in a semi-arid environment, the Ecoregion is composed of riverine forests
along the Indus River, mangrove forests and tidal wetlands in the coastal areas, while desert ecosystems
occupy the periphery. The area, which covers around 65% of the Sindh Province, is regarded as the 40 th
most biologically rich in the Asia-Pacific region.

Figure 30. Location of vulnerable, endangered and near threatened species within the Project Zone.

91
Olsen, D.M. and E. Dinerstein. 2002. The Global 200: Priority Ecoregions for global conservation.
Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden 199-224.

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The fan-shaped Indus Delta sits at the south of the Indus Ecoregion and is the world’s fifth largest delta. It
is a vast complex of multiple tidal river channels and 17 major creeks, low-lying sandy islands, mangrove
forests and intertidal lands stretching from near Korangi Creek in the west to Sir Creek near the Indian
border on the east. Wetlands including mangrove forests cover an area of about 600,000 ha and constitute
an important ecosystem in the coastal deltaic region (Saifullah, 1997) 92. The Indus Delta was designated
a Ramsar Site in November 2002.

The area is rich in biodiversity and natural resources including mangrove forests, croplands, fisheries,
wetlands, coastal creek systems and rare fauna as well as sights of cultural and historical heritage.
However, despite its global ecological significance and local socio-economic importance (being home to
marginal coastal and fishing communities), the delta has been facing numerous threats for several decades
which have led to massive degradation and now threaten its future existence.

Unsustainable resource use coupled with a decrease in freshwater and sediment supply have taken a
devastating toll on the ecology of the delta. Resource dependence of coastal communities and ineffective
policies have resulted in vast areas of mangrove forest, and their goods and services, being overexploited.

This has been further compounded by low freshwater discharge from the Kotri Barrage. Before 1930, the
Kotri Barrage discharge was 126 x 10 9 m3, which was reduced in the 1960s to 72 x 10 9 m3. This discharge
was then further reduced to a record low of 10 x 10 9 m3 in 2001-293.

Sea level rise is also having adverse effects on the delta. The rising level of seawater has already engulfed
vast stretches of dry land and has intruded into once-rich fertile lands. Salinity levels are as high as 40,000-
45,000 ppm in some areas. As a result, the soils have turned saline and there have been heavy setbacks
to ecosystems, habitats and species diversity. The composition of the mangrove forests has adapted over
time to these changes. This is evidenced in both DBC1 and certain reforested areas near Port Qasim, where
saltwater-resistant mangroves thrive in these new conditions.

Biodiversity features

To accurately assess the existing situation with respect to biodiversity in the Project Zone a baseline
assessment survey was carried out at seven strategic locations within the Project Zone (Figure 39). The full
results of this study are given in Appendix 19.

Coastal vegetation

Compared to the de-vegetated and degraded mangrove areas in the Project Area, which have not only lost
mangrove vegetation and associated biodiversity but also other important structural, compositional,
ecological and functional features of intact wetlands, the relatively small intact parts of the Project Zone
support a wide variety of vegetation including mangroves, herbs, shrubs, seaweeds and various grasses.
These remaining intact areas are a stunning example of a natural wetland type consisting of a main river,
punctuated with irrigation canals, reservoirs, ponds, lakes, marshes, creeks, sand flats, mudflats and

92
S.M. Saifullah. 1997. Management of the Indus Delta Mangroves in B.U.Haq et al. (eds.), Coastal Zone
Management Imperatives for Maritime Developing Nations, 333-346. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
93
https://foreverindus.org/pdf/180808annual_report_2007

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mangrove forests. These forests are the largest arid mangrove forests in the world 94. Eight species of
mangroves have historically been reported in the Project Zone), but only four remain today. These are,
Avicennia marina, Rhizophora mucronata, Ceriops tagal, and Aegiceras corniculate. These species are well
adapted to the current conditions of the delta.

Table 36. List and distribution of mangrove species in Pakistan

Species Distribution Status

Bruguiera
Karachi and Indus delta. Estuary of Indus (Murray, Hassan) Extinct
gymnorhiza

Karachi and coast of Sindh. Mouth of Indus and ‘saltwater creek’

Ceriops tagal Existing
(Stocks, Murray)

Ceriops decandra Sindh tidal zone; existence considered doubtful Extinct

Tidal marshes at the mouth of Indus, Mina Hor,

Rhizophora apiculata Extinct
(Las Bella)

Rhizophora Mouth of Indus on muddy shores and tidal creeks (Henslow; Las
Existing
mucronata Bella and Makran), coast (Burkill)

Aegiceras Mangrove swamps at mouth of the Indus (Stocks, Ritchie),

Existing
corniculatum Karachi, Mina Hor, (Jafri)

Tidal mangrove swamp, (Stern) China Creek, etc. (Jafri), Kalmat

Avicennia marina Existing
Hor

Sonneratia
Mouth of Indus and tidal zone (Murray) Extinct
caseolaris

Population surveys within the Indus Delta region have found the majority of mangroves are Avicenna marina
(approximately 90%), with Rhizophora mucronata (approximately 8%), Aegiceras corniculatum (less than
2%) and Ceriops tagal (less than 2%) making up the remainder (Sindh Forest Department, 2014) 95.
Avicennia marina occurs as an almost monotypic stand throughout the delta. Both Rhizophora mucronata
and Ceriops tagal are mainly present because of the afforestation and re-forestation efforts of Sindh Forest
Department and the DBC1 project. Inland areas have mostly halophytic vegetation including Chenopods,

94
S.M. Saifullah. 1997. Management of the Indus Delta Mangroves in B.U.Haq et al. (eds.), Coastal Zone
Management Imperatives for Maritime Developing Nations, 333-346. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
95
Official website Sindh Forest Department, Government of Sindh. https://sindhforests.gov.pk/page-
mangroves

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Suaeda, various Tamarix species Salvadora persica, and Prosopis juliflora. A full list of endemic species
found in Sindh Province is given in Appendix 18.

A salient feature of arid mangroves in the Project Zone is that there is no understorey of shrubs, herbs and
grasses mainly due to high saline conditions and lack of fresh water. However, the natural regeneration of
Avicennia marina does occupy the gaps found in between other species like Rhizophora mucronata and
Ceriops tagal. Vertically, the three major strata observed along the tidal creeks are: supratidal, intertidal,
and subtidal. There is a unique assemblage of organisms associated with the mangrove vegetative
structures in each of these three vertical strata.

The upper or supratidal stratum includes the arboreal portions of the mangrove forests. This stratum is
occupied by birds, reptiles, crabs, snails, insects, and spiders. The middle or intertidal stratum extends from
the high to low water tidal heights and encompasses the aerial root systems of the mangroves. Major
organisms inhabiting this zone (barnacles, isopods, crabs, oysters, amphipods, snails, and algae)
experience periodic submergence by the tides. The lower or subtidal stratum occurs below the low water
mark where the mangrove roots provide substrate for organisms adapted to constant submergence (algae,
sponges, tunicates, anemones, octocorals, shrimp, polychaetes, brittlestars, nudibranchs and jellyfish).

Terrestrial and supratidal biodiversity

The Project Zone is home to at least 10 species on the IUCN Red List. Thirty-five bird species, eight mammal
species, and four reptile species were recorded during the baseline faunal biodiversity survey conducted
by the project at sampling locations within the Project Zone.

Other studies (WWF 2007-08)96 have reported that 75 bird species including 28 resident and 47 migratory
species, 21 species of reptiles, two species of amphibians, 63 species of fish and 24 species of shellfish
in the region. The Indus River, which runs through the heart of the Project Area is the main migration route
for thousands of birds, which cross over the Himalayas to spend the winter either in Pakistan or further
south. Out of the seven recognised major flyways in the world the Indus Flyway, Number 4, is also known
as Green Route and is one of the most important97 flyovers for migratory birds from Siberia. Migratory birds
that visit the region include waterfowls, pelicans, other variety of shorebirds and raptors.

Historically the delta has been an important area for resident and migratory waterfowl, crane, teals, pintails,
mallards. It is also home to a wide variety of species of ducks, geese, eagles and falcons. Among mammals,
wild boar, the Indian jackal, the fishing cat, cetaceans (Indian ocean humpback dolphin) and the
endangered Egyptian vulture were recorded. Sea snakes are the most common reptiles in the Project Area.

Since the persistent sun and lack of freshwater in the mangrove forests create harsh environments for
insects, only a few species of insects are active during the day. Nocturnal and endophytic feeding are
common features among many of the mangrove-associated insect species.

96
https://foreverindus.org/pdf/180808annual_report_2007
97
http://www.wildlifeofpakistan.com/PakistanBirdClub/birdcomeflyingin.html

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Termites and ants (Formicidae) are ubiquitous and are clearly the most abundant terrestrial animals in
these mangroves. It is estimated that may species of ants live in direct association with the mangroves,
utilising hollow twigs and branches as nest sites98.

The saltwater surface and mudflats on mangrove islands provide habitats for aquatic and semiaquatic
insects, including species representing several families of Diptera, Hemiptera, Odonata, and Coleoptera.
The shore-fly family Ephydridae is particularly species-rich in mangrove habitats. Most species in this family
are detritivores. They live on decaying vegetation along the shore. Mangrove vegetation in the Project Area
provides numerous supratidal habitats for herbivorous insects, along with their parasites and predators.

Intertidal and subtidal biodiversity

In addition to the mangrove trees, other primary producers in mangrove communities and adjacent areas
include microscopic and macroscopic algae. Microscopic algae are found in the plankton (phytoplankton),
on mangrove roots (periphyton) and other substrates (epibenthic), and within the tissues of sea anemones,
ascidians, sponges, and other animals (endobionts).

The distribution of macroscopic algae, commonly called seaweeds, is determined by substrate availability,
light and nutrient levels, salinity, competition, and herbivory. Characteristic assemblages of seaweeds occur
on mangrove roots (epiphytes), mangrove soils and surrounding substrates. Zooplankton are heterotrophic
organisms (protozoans and animals) that are unable to maintain their distribution against the movement
of water masses. Zooplankton in the Project Area are generally divided into two major groups depending
on their size. Micro-zooplankton range from 20 to 200μm in size and include the larger protozoans and
small invertebrate eggs and larvae. Macro-zooplankton above 200μm in length include a wide variety of
invertebrate and fish larvae99. Both salinity and tidal regime affect the abundance and diversity of the
zooplankton in coastal communities. Accumulated detritus also plays a key role from a trophic perspective.
Organisms of the zooplankton are partially responsible for the success of mangrove systems as a nursery
for higher species.

Current situation in the Project Area

The Project Area covers regions of highly degraded mangroves. The remaining vegetation in the Project
Area is extremely sparse. In places, individual mangrove trees may be found, but the majority of the area is
either barren land or covered with a scattering of seasonal, low salt tolerant Oryza coarctata grass.

At the time of validation, a total of 8,000 hectares of mangroves have been restored by the project.

Threats to biodiversity

98
Feller, I.C. and M. Sitnik, 1996. Mangrove Ecology Workshop Manual. Smithsonian Institution,
Washington, D.C.
99
Jacobs, N.D. 1996. Zooplankton of Coastal Lagoons with Emphasis on the Mangrove Environment In
Feller, I.C. and M. Sitnik. Mangrove Ecology: A Manual for a Field Course A Field Manual Focused on the
Biocomplexity on Mangrove Ecosystems.

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The main threat to the biodiversity in the Project Zone is habitat reduction through mangrove degradation
and deforestation. Besides loss of forest which leads to habitat loss and fragmentation for some water-
dependent species, other factors causing loss of habitat and wetland degradation include:

• Excessive and indiscriminate harvesting of fisheries and other coastal resources beyond their
regenerative capacities
• Inadequate engagement of key stakeholder groups to participate in resources conservation and
development
• A general lack of awareness and capacity amongst stakeholders to sustainably manage wetlands,
their ecosystems, resources and their ecosystem services
• Poor law enforcement due to lack of investment into mangrove forests protection, conservation,
regeneration, and coastal areas conservation and rehabilitation
• Human-wildlife conflict
• Sea level rise
• A decline in freshwater flows due to upstream activities. This increases the salinity level in the
wetlands areas and also leads to sea intrusion into various terrestrial areas including fertile
croplands in the nearby vicinities
• Inadequate supply of sediments into the wetlands causing the delta front to be eroded

Species and Indian Ocean Humpback Dolphin

habitat

Conservation Endangered
Status

Potential Unlikely to be directly impacted by mangrove restoration, but potential

Impact of changes in coastal dynamics need to be monitored.
Mangrove
Restoration

Mitigation It will be done through preserving and managing coastal and estuarine
Measures ecosystems, maintaining healthy fish populations, reducing anthropogenic
Adopted impacts, and implementing effective conservation measures, which are
essential for the long-term conservation of Indian Ocean humpback dolphins
and their habitats. Also, coastal dynamics will be regularly monitored as part
of the on-going monitoring activities.

Net Impact on The species will experience a net positive effect.

Species

Species and Fishing Cat

habitat

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Conservation Vulnerable
Status

Potential Restoration may affect prey availability, but overall habitat improvement can
Impact of benefit the species in the long term. Monitoring is required.
Mangrove
Restoration

Mitigation Preserving and restoring wetland habitats, maintaining healthy fish

Measures populations, and minimizing human-wildlife conflict are essential for the
Adopted conservation of fishing cats and their unique feeding habits. Effective
conservation efforts of DBC-2 Project would focus on protecting and
managing their wetland habitats to ensure the long-term survival of this
species. Regular monitoring will be undertaken.

Net Impact on There will be net positive impact on the species.

Species

Species and Indian Flap Shell Turtles

habitat

Conservation Vulnerable
Status

Potential Nesting sites may be impacted if restoration activities occur during nesting
Impact of season. Proper planning and coordination can minimize disturbances.
Mangrove
Restoration

Mitigation Indian flap shell turtles require freshwater habitats with suitable shelter,
Measures basking sites, nesting areas, and clean water to thrive. They have an
Adopted omnivorous diet consisting of both plant and animal matter, and their feeding
habits are adapted to their aquatic lifestyle, including bottom-feeding,
foraging, and scavenging. DBC-2 Project will protect and preserve their
freshwater habitats inside, close to and in surroundings of the Project Zone
which are crucial for the conservation of the species and their ecosystems.

Net Impact on The species will benefit from a net positive outcome.
Species

Species and Steppe Eagle

habitat

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Conservation Endangered
Status
Potential negative impacts of mangrove restoration work on Steppe Eagles
Potential
could include:
Impact of
Mangrove 1. Habitat Disruption: Restoration activities may disrupt the natural habitat of
Restoration Steppe Eagles, leading to displacement or disturbance of nesting sites and
foraging areas.

2. Loss of Prey Base: Changes in habitat structure and availability of prey

species within the restored mangrove areas could reduce the food
resources for Steppe Eagles, impacting their foraging success.

3. Disturbance from Human Activity: Increased human activity associated

with restoration work, such as boats noise, and human presence, may
disturb nesting Steppe Eagles and cause them to abandon their nests or
territories.

4. Altered Coastal Dynamics: Changes in water flow patterns and

sedimentation rates resulting from mangrove restoration efforts may affect
the availability of suitable foraging habitats for Steppe Eagles along the
coast.

Mitigation measures to minimize these impacts and improve the habitat for
Mitigation
Steppe Eagles during mangrove restoration work will include:
Measures
Adopted 1. Pre-Restoration Surveys: Conduct comprehensive surveys to identify
nesting sites, foraging areas, and important habitat features for
Steppe Eagles within the restoration area. This information will inform
restoration planning to avoid or minimize disturbance to these critical
areas.
2. Buffer Zones: Establish buffer zones around known Steppe Eagle
nesting sites and foraging areas to protect them from disturbance
during restoration activities. It will be done through restricting access
to these zones and implementing measures to minimize human
disturbance.

3. Timing of Activities: Schedule restoration activities outside of the

Steppe Eagles' breeding season and peak foraging times in specific
sites to reduce disturbance to nesting birds and minimize the risk of
displacement.

4. Vegetation Management: Maintain suitable vegetation structure and

diversity within restored mangrove areas to provide habitat for prey
species favored by Steppe Eagles. Ensure a mix of mangrove species
and maintain adequate canopy cover to support a healthy ecosystem.

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5. Monitoring and Adaptive Management: Implement a monitoring

program to assess the impact of restoration activities on Steppe
Eagles and their habitat. Adjust restoration strategies as needed
based on monitoring data to minimize negative impacts and maximize
benefits for the species.

6. Public Awareness and Education: Raise awareness among project

stakeholders, local communities, and visitors about the presence of
Steppe Eagles and the importance of protecting their habitat. Engage
stakeholders in conservation efforts and promote responsible
behavior around eagle habitats.

By implementing these mitigation measures, DBC-2 Project will minimize

negative impacts on Steppe Eagles and contribute to the improvement of their
habitat, ensuring the long-term conservation of this iconic bird species.

Net Impact on Overall, the species will experience a beneficial outcome.

Species

Species and
Dalmatian Pelicans
habitat

Conservation Near Threatened

Status
Potential negative impacts of mangrove restoration projects on Dalmatian
Potential
Pelicans could include:
Impact of
Mangrove 1. Habitat Displacement: Restoration activities may disrupt existing
Restoration habitats or nesting sites of Dalmatian Pelicans within the Project Zone,
leading to displacement or disturbance of breeding colonies.

2. Loss of Foraging Grounds: Changes in habitat structure and hydrology

resulting from restoration efforts may alter the availability and quality
of foraging grounds for Dalmatian Pelicans, reducing their access to
prey species.

3. Disturbance from Human Activity: Increased human activity associated

with restoration work, such as noise, and human presence, may
disturb nesting and foraging Dalmatian Pelicans, causing them to
abandon their nests or territories.

4. Altered Water Quality: Changes in water flow patterns and

sedimentation rates due to mangrove restoration activities may affect
water quality parameters such as salinity and turbidity, which could
impact the availability of prey species for Dalmatian Pelicans.

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Mitigation
Measures To minimize these negative impacts and ensure a net positive impact on
Adopted Dalmatian Pelicans, the following measures will be taken:

1. Pre-Restoration Surveys: Conduct comprehensive surveys to identify

nesting sites, foraging areas, and important habitat features for
Dalmatian Pelicans within the restoration area. This information will
inform restoration planning to avoid or minimize disturbance to these
critical areas.

2. Buffer Zones: Establish buffer zones around known Dalmatian Pelican

nesting sites and foraging areas to protect them from disturbance
during restoration activities. Restrict access to these zones and
implement measures to minimize human disturbance.

3. Timing of Activities: Schedule restoration activities outside of the

Dalmatian Pelicans' breeding season and peak foraging times to
reduce disturbance to nesting birds and minimize the risk of
displacement.

4. Habitat Enhancement: Incorporate features into the restored

mangrove ecosystem that enhance habitat quality for Dalmatian
Pelicans, such as creating suitable nesting sites, maintaining diverse
vegetation structure, and ensuring the availability of prey species.

5. Monitoring and Adaptive Management: Implement a monitoring

program to assess the impact of restoration activities on Dalmatian
Pelicans and their habitat. Adjust restoration strategies as needed
based on monitoring data to minimize negative impacts and maximize
benefits for the species.

6. Public Awareness and Education: Raise awareness among project

stakeholders, local communities, and visitors about the presence of
Dalmatian Pelicans and the importance of protecting their habitat.
Engage stakeholders in conservation efforts and promote responsible
behavior around pelican habitats.

By implementing these mitigation measures, DBC-2 mangrove restoration

project can and will minimize negative impacts on Dalmatian Pelicans and
contribute to the improvement of their habitat, ensuring the long-term
conservation of this vulnerable bird species.

Net Impact on The species will see a positive change overall.

Species

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5.1.2 High Conservation Values (CCB, B1.2)

The entirety of the ARR/RWE Project Area is of High Conservation Value based both on area as well as
species parameters.

Area-based significance: The Indus Delta coastal ecosystem is one of the largest and the most important
arid-zone coastal ecosystem in Asia. It is:

Globally significant – The Project Area is one of the largest and one of the most important sites globally for
the species listed and arid zone mangrove ecosystem

Regionally significant – The Project Area is within one of the approximately five most important sites in
South Asia and Asia Regions for the species listed

Nationally significant –The Project Area is the most important of the two coastal sites for the listed species
in Pakistan

Species-based significance: The Project Area also has great ecological significance and is the wintering
ground of many species of water birds. Migratory birds particularly shorebirds, egrets and herons, gulls and
terns, pelicans and flamingos use these wetlands for feeding, resting and roosting purposes. The Project
Area contains or provides potential habitat for the country’s species which are endangered, vulnerable or
threatened and are included in the IUCN Red Listing as tabulated below.

Table 37. High Priority IUCN Red Listed species found within the Indus Delta.

Species Name IUCN Red Listing CITES Appendix

Fishing cat (Prionailurus viverrinus) VU II

The Indian Ocean humpback dolphin (Sousa plumbea) EN I

Steppe Eagle (Aquila nipalensis) EN I

Dalmatian pelican (Pelecanus oncrotalus) NT II

Cinerous vulture (Aegypius monachus) NT II

Black- tailed godwit (Limosa limosa) NT II

Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata) NT II

Laggar falcon (Falco jugger) NT II

Indian flapshell turtle (Lissemys punctata) VU II

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River Tern (Sterna aurantia) VU II

High conservation value HCV 1: Species diversity

Qualifying attribute • Concentrations of biological diversity including endemic

species, and rare, threatened or endangered species,
that are significant at global, regional or national levels.
• The Project Area is a part of landscapes containing
populations of arid zone mangrove species.
• It forms part of the habitat for the endangered Indian
humpback dolphin which has global significance.
• Other unique aquatic biota in the area include the Indus
baril (Barilius modestus), Indus garua (Clupisoma naziri),
rita catfish (Rita rita) and a number of snakehead fish
including the giant snakehead, Channa marulius100.
• The Project Area is the habitat of the vulnerable Fishing
Cat, one endangered and five Near-threatened species of
birds and one vulnerable specie of turtle Indian flapshell
turtle.
• The Project Area has 32 of the 147 fish species found in
the region that are endemic to Pakistan (Amir, Siddiqui,
Masroor, 2016)101.
• The Project Area is used as a temporary place/habitat
by a number of migratory bird species.

Focal area Mangroves forests and degraded lands in the Project Area – it
is necessary to carry out restoration activities and conserve the
current mangrove area in order to maintain species diversity.

High conservation value HCV 2: Landscape-level ecosystems and mosaics

100
Miththapala, S. 2008. Mangroves. Coastal Ecosystems Series Volume 2: Ecosystems and Livelihoods
Group Asia, IUCN.
101
Amir, Siddiqui, Masroor, 2016. Finfish diversity and seasonal abundance in the largest arid mangrove
forest of the Indus Delta, Northern Arabian Sea, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung and
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

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Qualifying attribute • Large landscape-level ecosystems and ecosystem

mosaics
that are significant at global, regional or national levels,
and that contain viable populations of the great majority
of the naturally occurring species in natural patterns of
distribution and abundance.
• The Project Area forms part of a large wetlands landscape
which extends to over 600,000 hectares.
• The Project Zone is a part of landscape that contains
mangrove ecosystems as well as mudflats ecosystems
and is thus constituting landscapes that contain two or
more contiguous ecosystems.
• The Project Zone is a part of landscapes containing
populations of arid zone mangrove species.

Focal area Mangroves forests and degraded lands in the Project Area – it
is necessary to carry out restoration activities and conserve the
current mangrove area in order to maintain the Project Area’s
landscape level ecosystems and mosaics.

High conservation value HCV 3: Ecosystems and habitats

Qualifying attribute • Rare, threatened, or endangered ecosystems, habitats or

refugia.
• The Project Zone is one of the largest zones of arid
mangroves regionally, nationally and globally.
• The Project Zone is used as a temporary place/habitat
by a number of migratory bird species.

Focal area Mangroves forests and degraded lands in the Project Area – it
is necessary to carry out restoration activities and conserve the
current mangrove area in order to maintain the Project Area’s
ecosystems and habitats.

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Figure 31. High conservation value areas in the Project Zone

5.1.3 Without-project Scenario: Biodiversity (CCB, B1.3)

Biodiversity impact assessment related meetings and discussions have been held with various stakeholder
groups by the proponents to develop the DBC-2 Project Area biodiversity baseline, without-project and with-
project land-use and biodiversity scenario. These meetings include the various SBIA Workshops held with
stakeholders (see Section 2.1.17). The groups involved in this process included local communities with
close knowledge of the area and representatives from the provincial government’s Forest Department and
Wildlife Department, the Federal Government’s Quality Control and Standards Authority, and various NGOs
including inputs from the IUCN and WWF Pakistan. All participants at these meetings had some prior
knowledge and experience of implementing biodiversity and conservation related activities within the DBC
Project Zone.

Unsustainable use of mangrove forests

In discussions, an evaluation of historical conditions identified the direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity
and HCVs degradation in the Project Area. All stakeholders were in agreement that the core issue driving
degradation was a poor appreciation of biodiversity value, both at the institutional and community levels.
Historically, existing forests and natural resources have been valued only for tangible benefits like timber,
fuelwood and fodder by these actors.

Furthermore, community groups and authorities have not been properly sensitised to the benefits
(economic, social and environmental) of conservation and restoration of wetlands. This has been largely
due to capacity and knowledge gaps within local institutions, which are poorly developed and underfunded,
leading to low levels of community engagement and participation in conservation and restoration activities.

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Consequently, there is no perceived economic or environmental incentive for better or alternative land-use
planning and vast areas of these once fertile croplands and wetlands – which were formerly farmed for red
rice – have been left abandoned and allowed to degrade over time in the DBC Project Zone. Currently,
increased population pressure and poverty is exacerbating the problem and putting further pressure on
existing resources leading to further biodiversity degradation and wildlife habitat loss.

Human-wildlife conflict

Human-wildlife conflict is projected to increase under a without project scenario due to increased
population and competition for resources. As outlined above, the majority of Project Zone communities are
not sensitised to wildlife, its positive role and ecological importance in ecosystems and their services
maintenance. Therefore killing, hunting and trapping of wild animals is often observed in the Project Zone
as detailed below.

Various reptile species (snakes and lizards) that are considered poisonous or otherwise dangerous by the
local population are routinely killed as ‘precautionary measures’

Some wildlife species such as jackals and jungle cats, prey upon poultry and are considered ‘problem
species’. Many locals shoot or lay traps for them to avoid losses

There is increased human and wildlife conflict on account of losses caused by some animals to crops and
other property. This particularly holds true in the case of Indian Crested Porcupine, which locals will target

Increasing number of feral dogs are having a negative impact on wild animals in the Project Area. These
canines are major food competitors for most of the carnivore species and are given refuge and shelter by
some communities in the Project Zone. Their numbers are likely to increase with the passage of time

Particular community groups like Jogies, Bar and the Bheel, who mostly come from outside the Project
Zone, collect some reptiles and birds illegally to sell to the traders based in larger towns. Weak wildlife law
enforcement and lack of convictions for offenders is a driver for this activity

In a without project scenario these activities will persist and worsen over time without the necessary
interventions and the application of stricter law enforcement.

Unsustainable fisheries

The majority of the population in the Project Zone rely on fishing for their livelihoods and increasingly
fisherman are adopting unsustainable harvesting practices to keep pace with demand and to make ends
meet. Traditional fishing methods were environmentally friendly, where nets made of silk (resham) or a
cotton variety (latha) were used for stationary fishing and had a sufficiently wide mesh to reduce bycatch.

However, over recent times environmentally harmful nets have been introduced in an effort to increase fish
catches102. These are made of nylon, have a fine mesh, and also catch non-target species. A combination
of technology upgrades and rising costs have also made fisherman increasingly dependent on loans to

102
Shahid, U. 2013. Making a sustainable living from fishing in the Indus Delta

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finance their capital expenditures. In the absence of readily available institutional credit, the fisherman’s
only recourse is an informal and often exploitative credit system. As a result, efforts to maintain livelihoods
in the face of declining catches and increasing debt appear to be forcing an increasing number into
adopting unsustainable harvesting practices, further degrading biodiversity in the DBC-2 Project Area.

A seasonal ban on fishing (June–August) to protect spawning fish coincides with the monsoon squalls that
make fishing difficult. In this case, nature to some extent comes to the aid of policy. But while the ban
applies to sea-going vessels, it does not prevent shore fishing by locals, including in the shrimp breeding
grounds103. Authorities, due to lack of budgetary provisions and low staff levels, also find it difficult to
enforce the ban effectively.

Under a without-project scenario all of the above direct and indirect drivers will continue to exert negative
pressures, leading to increased and accelerated biodiversity exploitation, reduction, degradation and
fragmentation.

To ensure the project’s success, key biodiversity related factors need to be addressed. These can be broadly
categorised as focal issues. These priority focal issues – as determined by stakeholders – and their drivers
are given in the tables below.

Table 38. Focal issues driving biodiversity loss and degradation within the Project Zone.

Focal issue 1 Drivers

• Demand for and cutting of mangroves for fuelwood purposes and as a

source of energy
• Demand for and practice of open range grazing of camels and other
livestock in mangrove forests
• Cutting of branches, leaves and propagules as a fodder for livestock
Unsustainable • Human and livestock population increase
use of resources • Clearance of mangroves for aquaculture
• Increased demand for fish and shrimp species
• Unsustainable fishing practices
• Expansion of settlements inside the creeks
• Lack of alternative sustainable supply of fuelwood
• Lack of organization and community decision making

Focal issue 2 Drivers

103
Khan S.R. and S.R. Khan. 2011. Fishery degradation in Pakistan: a poverty–environment nexus?
Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue canadienne d'études du développement, 32:1: 32-47.

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• Lack of budgetary provisions and funds for enforcement of forest,

wildlife and fisheries laws
• Lack of training and capacity for forest, wildlife and fisheries law
Ineffective law enforcement
enforcement • Low staff numbers leading to fewer forest and adjoining marine and
land areas patrols for apprehending forest, wildlife and fisheries laws
offenders
• Lengthy and cumbersome judicial process for adjudication of natural
resources offence cases

Focal issue 3 Drivers

• Lack of awareness on the part of communities and other stakeholders

about the ecosystem services values of mangrove forests, wildlife and
biodiversity
• Low levels of community engagement in mangrove forest, wildlife and
biodiversity, and fish resources protection
Low awareness of
biodiversity value • Human-wildlife conflict
• Lack of needed investment funds for restoration work
• Lack of incentives to communities for promoting sustainable
management of forests, biodiversity, fisheries and other natural and
environmental resources
• Lack of alternative livelihood for communities

Stakeholders projected what would happen with regards to each focal issue in the short-to-medium term
in the absence of the project. A worsening situation is expected with respect to each of the focal issues and
their contributing factors leading to:

• A reduction of mangrove forests and disappearance of their ecosystem services

• Increased vulnerability of biodiversity and threatened species in the area due to lack of habitat and
ongoing habitat destruction

5.2 Net Positive Biodiversity Impacts

5.2.1 Expected Biodiversity Changes (VCS, 3.19; CCB, B2.1)

Project interventions

Net positive biodiversity impacts of the project include better protection and conservation of endemic, rare,
vulnerable and threatened species; conservation of landscape level ecosystems and mosaics; and
conservation and sustainable management of rare, threatened or endangered ecosystems, habitats and
refugia through various project interventions that address the root causes and drivers of biodiversity and
habitats loss.

Based on the identified Focal Issues listed in Section 2.1.17, entry points, management interventions and
engagement strategies have been developed by stakeholders. These are seen as the most likely actions
and activities to address the root causes and drivers of biodiversity degradation in the DBC-1 Project Zone.

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These constitute project activities that if implemented would follow the theory of change logic developed in
the Results Chain (see Figure B2) to lead to desired outcomes of restoration of wetlands and conservation
and enhancement of biodiversity values. Accordingly, they are:

Wetland restoration and habitat improvement: This will be achieved by rehabilitating and restoring 193,495
hectares of degraded and de-vegetated mangrove lands through planting of mangrove propagules and
various assisted natural regeneration activities to create further and enhanced habitat for wildlife and
restore mangrove forest ecosystems

Habitat security enhancement and effective enforcement of laws: This will be accomplished through
increasing number, capacity and welfare of law enforcement agencies via appropriate training and
allocation of resources to assist in institutional development and organisational strengthening

Ensuring sustainable resource use levels: This focal area will be tackled through preventing and controlling
unauthorised, un-regulated and unsustainable resource use of mangroves and fisheries, provision of
alternatives to reduce pressure on existing resources and increasing resource use efficiency

Improved awareness raising and advocacy: This will focus on ensuring better access to knowledge via
dissemination and supporting its application, properly organising stakeholder groups for coordinated
efforts, and doing advocacy work on issues of concern in particular unsustainable fishing practices and
activities upstream that may disrupt freshwater flows into the delta

Theory of Change Statements

Based on the experience of the project partners in working on biodiversity conservation and community
projects in the landscape, a literature review, and information obtained from the SBIA workshop and various
stakeholder consultations, a theory of change approach was applied to substantiate the DBC-1 project
rationale and to produce indicators for a CCB monitoring plan.

A theory of change is a hypothesis about how a project intends to achieve its stated objectives, or a roadmap
of how it plans to get from project activities to project impacts 104. Interventions would mainly address the
issues or factors projected in the preceding section as likely to get worse in the absence of the DBC-2
project. These would thus constitute the project activities that if implemented would follow the theory of
change logic outlined below to lead to the desired outcomes.

Activity area 1: Habitat improvement and restoration of degraded and de-vegetated wetlands: IF funds for
restoration work are made available, IF local communities are organised to play a role in mangrove
restoration work, IF mangrove restoration work is implemented under ecological principles, IF communities
are engaged in the protection of restored areas through Mangrove Stewardship Agreements THEN vast
degraded and de-vegetated mangrove lands in the Project Area can be restored and protected.

Activity area 2: Habitat security enhancement and effective enforcement of laws: IF funds for laws
enforcement are made available, IF local communities and concerned departments are trained,
capacitated and facilitated in implementing forest, wildlife and fisheries laws, IF communities are engaged

104
Richards, M. and S.N. Panfil. 2011. Social and Biodiversity Impact Assessment (SBIA) Manual for
REDD+ Projects: Part 1 – Core Guidance for Project Proponents. Climate, Community & Biodiversity
Alliance, Forest Trends (p59), Fauna & Flora International, and Rainforest Alliance. Washington, DC.

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in the protection of restored areas through Mangrove Stewardship Agreements and Fisheries Stewardship
Agreements, IF there are more patrols by well-motivated and equipped Forest Department staff as well as
custodian communities under the Stewardship Agreements, THEN there will be improvements in offences
prevention, detection, apprehension, prosecution, and adjudication and more effective enforcement of
laws leading to reduced levels of destructive forest, wildlife and fisheries related use

Activity area 3: Species and habitats conservation control of unsustainable levels of resource use: IF
communities are provided with alternative sources of employment and income earning, IF local
communities are provided with alternative energy sources, IF free-range livestock grazing is controlled, IF
local communities are organised to play a role in resources protection, IF fishermen are educated and
facilitated to use sustainable harvesting practices, THEN unsustainable levels of resource use (mangroves,
wildlife, and fisheries) will be brought under control

Activity area 4: Improved awareness raising and advocacy: IF awareness raising and advocacy campaigns
are properly designed, implemented and upscaled, IF the various stakeholders are properly motivated,
trained, involved and engaged in resources planning, management and monitoring, IF there is increased
knowledge and appreciation of biodiversity amongst local communities, IF there is greater involvement of
communities and other stakeholders in resources conservation, restoration and sustainable management,
THEN biodiversity habitat and HCVs will be conserved and enhanced in the Project Area

Anticipated changes in biodiversity resulting from project activities is given in the tables below.

Biodiversity element Flora

Estimated change Positive

Justification of change The project consists of the restoration and conservation of tidal
wetland mangrove forests in the Project Area. Project
interventions will be implemented via sustainable landscape
management tools, which will contribute to the maintenance of
the ecological structure and composition of the ecosystem.
This will guarantee the availability of ecosystem services and
the conservation of species of flora that are under threat. The
methods used to estimate these changes are detailed in the
monitoring plan (see Appendix 17) and SOPs.

Biodiversity element Fauna

Estimated change Positive

Justification of change A good vegetation cover will ensure an adequate habitat for
faunal species. Mangrove forests in the Project Zone are the
habitat of a great variety of local and migratory birds,
mammals and reptiles, which obtain food from them and use

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them as places of refuge and nesting. Marine and estuarine

species will also find the necessary conditions for their
reproduction, growth and permanence. The methods used to
estimate these changes are detailed in the monitoring plan
(see Appendix 17) and SOPs.

5.2.2 Mitigation Measures (VCS, 3.19; CCB, B2.3)

None of the implemented or proposed project activities are expected to have any negative impacts on
biodiversity, including any of the areas HCVs. Interventions are specifically designed to restore mangrove
forests and thus improve habitat, as well as reduce any direct threats to wildlife and biodiversity. The level
of uncertainty and risk associated with the project activities is very low, given the project’s success to date.
Hence, the need for explicit application of the precautionary principle does not arises.

5.2.3 Net Positive Biodiversity Impacts (CCB, B2.2, GL1.4)

Based on comparison of without-project scenario (Section 5.1 and with-project scenario (Section 5.2), most
of the direct factors across the focal areas are projected as being likely to worsen in the absence of the
ARR project. These, among others, include:

• Availability of funding support

• Fuelwood demand
• Fodder demand and demand for open range grazing in mangrove forests
• Demand for fisheries and other environmental resources
• Lack of zoning and Protected Areas demarcation
• Limited forest, wildlife, fisheries and other environmental laws enforcement
• Minimal risk of being prosecuted for various natural resources related offences
• Lack of awareness, understanding and motivation to show appreciation for biodiversity values
• Lack of knowledge, skills and capacity for biodiversity conservation
Thus, project activities planned and being implemented under Section 5.2 will result in clear environmental,
biodiversity and HCVs benefits compared to the without-project scenario. Also, the project has no negative
biodiversity impacts anticipated, either on-site or off-site. The Project Zone includes areas where mangroves
will grow due to climate induced sea-level rise. Protecting these areas through the project activities will help
biodiversity to adapt to climate change.

5.2.4 High Conservation Values Protected (CCB, B2.4)

Special attention will be paid to the protection and conservation of High Conservation Values 1, 2, and 3
as identified in Section 5.1.2. These will be protected and conserved as per HCV Resource Network
Common Guidance for the Management and Monitoring of High Conservation Values and the criteria and
indicators of the CCB Standards Third Edition.

5.2.5 Species Used (VCS, 3.19; CCB, B2.5, B2.6)

The project will undertake restoration of degraded and de-vegetated mangrove areas within the Project
Area. This will include planting of mangrove tree species combined with assisted natural regeneration that

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occurs in these planted areas. Species used or intended to be used in such replanting are Avicennia
marina, Rhizophora mucronate, Ceriops tagal, and Aegiceras corniculatum. In the agroforestry program,
the project will use local and native species such as Acacia nilotica.

All species used in the restoration work or natural forest replanting or agroforestry program under the
project are native to the coastal areas of Sindh Province and non-invasive in these mangrove forest
habitats. The project is limited in its capacity to improve plant species diversity with the current freshwater
inflows and sediment regime. No non-native species will be used in the Project Area. All the natural mudflats
in the landscape have been excised from the Project Area a priori.

Species introduced Classification Justification for use Adverse effects and

mitigation

Avicennia marina Native Locally adapted None

Rhizophora mucronate Native Locally adapted None

Ceriops tagal Native Locally adapted None

Aegiceras corniculatum Native Locally adapted None

Acacia nilotica and Native Locally adapted None

other native species
(agroforestry)

5.2.6 Invasive Species (VCS, 3.19; CCB, B2.5)

No invasive species, either floral or faunal, are being used by the project.

5.2.7 GMO Exclusion (CCB, B2.7)

No Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) are being or will be used in the Project Area.

5.2.8 Inputs Justification (VCS, 3.19; CCB, B2.8)

The use of various agro-chemicals like insecticides, weedicides, pesticides, fertilisers or other
environmentally undesirable inputs is neither anticipated nor will be used under the project.

5.2.9 Waste Products (VCS, 3.19; CCB, B2.9)

The main waste anticipated from implementation of this project are from construction/renovation activities
(health centre construction, civic centre construction) and other infrastructure. For any such activity, the
project will adhere to the Provincial Environmental Law provisions and guidelines, as stipulated under the
established Environmental Impact Assessment process in the applicable environmental law.

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5.3 Offsite Biodiversity Impacts

5.3.1 Negative Offsite Biodiversity Impacts (CCB, B3.1) and Mitigation Measures (CCB, B3.2)

Given the fact that all project activities are designed, planned and implemented to deliver positive
biodiversity impacts, no negative impacts are anticipated, either onsite or offsite. There is very little
possibility that the restoration of mangrove forests on degraded or de-vegetated areas will lead to
displacement of activities offsite.

This is because the sources of threat to biodiversity are mainly local and they are unlikely to be transferred
outside the Project Zone. There are no commercial threats to biodiversity in the area. This, however, will be
very closely and carefully monitored and any resulting impacts will be assessed, quantified and mitigated
on an immediate basis. As no negative off-site impacts are anticipated, no additional mitigation strategy is
required at this point in time other than the actions proposed above.

5.3.2 Net Offsite Biodiversity Benefits (VCS, 3.19; CCB, B3.3)

As there are no anticipated negative offsite impacts to biodiversity, an evaluation of unmitigated offsite
impacts is not applicable.

5.4 Biodiversity Impact Monitoring

5.4.1 Biodiversity Monitoring Plan (CCB, B4.1, B4.2, GL1.4, GL3.4)

The biodiversity monitoring plan of the project, as given in Appendix 17, has been developed keeping in
view project’s causal model related to biodiversity. It aims at addressing the underlying causes of
biodiversity loss by mainstreaming biodiversity conservation across its various project interventions;
reducing direct pressures on biodiversity and promoting its sustainable use; improving the status of Indus
Delta wetlands biodiversity by safeguarding ecosystems, species and genetic diversity; enhancing the
benefits to local communities and other stakeholders from biodiversity conservation; and enhancing
implementation of biodiversity conservation and sustainable management measures through participatory
planning, knowledge sharing and capacity building.

More specifically, the biodiversity monitoring plan includes the biodiversity-related variables to be
monitored, which are not only in line with, but which are also directly linked to the project’s biodiversity
objectives and to predicted outputs, outcomes and impacts identified in the project’s causal model related
to biodiversity. The monitoring plan and the protocol for its implementation have identified and given the
areas to be monitored and also give the types of measurements, the sampling methods, and the frequency
of monitoring and reporting to be used.

To ensure the implementation of biodiversity monitoring plan, the project has a team of experts and field
teams with the requisite competencies, clear job descriptions and responsibilities with regard to the
monitoring plan implementation and they have been organised in an organisational structure which is
meant to deliver results on the ground.

The project has also developed a detailed policies and procedures document (given separately) that details
policies for oversight and accountability of biodiversity monitoring activities as well as procedures for
handling non-conformances with the validated monitoring plan. Provided therein is also the project’s
organisational structure and personnel for implementation of the plan.

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The theory of change logic in the Result Chain Diagrams (Section 2.1.17) was used as the basis for selecting
indicators for biodiversity monitoring, along with the best sampling methods to collect these data to
acceptable levels of accuracy, precision and cost effectiveness whilst retaining transparency and simplicity.
Appendix 17 and SOPs guide data collection.

Furthermore, the indicators will be analysed based on the pressure-state-response framework, which also
relies on a causal-chain logic. Wildlife surveys and monitoring for all species – with a focus on HCVs – will
be done using several methods: patrols, camera traps and information from any independent research
projects in the area.

Vegetation and land-cover: Monitoring of land cover and land cover changes and vegetation development
over time is an integral part of the biodiversity monitoring plan. For this purpose, among others the project
would make use of remote sensing (based on LANDSAT imagery) and GIS techniques (see Section 3.3.3)
with appropriate ground truthing as well as establish permanent sample plots for vegetation and vegetation
change monitoring.

5.4.2 Biodiversity Monitoring Plan Dissemination (CCB, B4.3)

Dissemination of the monitoring plan for biodiversity will follow the guidelines described in Sections 2.3.4
and 3.3.4 on the dissemination of project summary documents.

5.5 Optional Criterion: Exceptional Biodiversity Benefits

5.5.1 High Biodiversity Conservation Priority Status (CCB, GL3.1)

The project is expected to generate exceptional biodiversity benefits based on achievement of multiple
criteria defined in the Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and the CCB Standards Third Edition – vulnerability
and irreplaceability.

The Project Area forms part of the Indus eco-region, which is identified and classified as amongst the 40
globally biodiversity rich eco-regions. The arid zone mangroves in the Indus Delta area contain biodiversity
sites that are contributing significantly to the global persistence of biodiversity and these sites meet one or
more of the 11 criteria of the KBAs. Please refer to Appendix 19 for further information.

5.5.2 Trigger Species Population Trends (CCB, GL3.2, GL3.3)

There have not been systematic and thorough assessments of biodiversity-related High Conservation
Values in the Indus Delta Project Zone landscape. This makes it difficult at present to provide either current
numbers or estimates for the end of the project.

However, given the current poor or limited levels of law enforcement across the landscape, coupled with
extreme poverty, minimal livelihood and job opportunities for the local communities, loss of critical
mangrove forests and wetlands habitats including HCVs is likely to continue without the Indus Delta ARR
project interventions.

This is likely to lead to a reduction in most, if not all, of the threatened and vulnerable trigger species. Given
this likely scenario, the proposed activities under the project’s theory of change (Section 5.2.1) will lead to
an improved status for most of the threatened and vulnerable species as given below.

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Trigger species Indian Ocean humpback dolphin

(Sousa plumbea) (Endangered)

Population trend at start of project This mammal is endemic to the Indus eco-region
and there were several sightings of the (Sousa
plumbea) during our biodiversity survey (see
Appendix 19). It is considered endangered specie,
and its IUCN Red Listing indicates that populations
at the start of the project are declining.

Without-project scenario In the without-project scenario, it is highly likely that

population of this specie would be negatively
affected in the Project Zone due to lack of
awareness of its global significance and further
degradation of its habitat.

With-project scenario Under the with-project scenario, both species are

expected to maintain or increase from their current
population density due to the improved habitat
provided by the project interventions and increased
awareness creation about the species and the need
to conserve the species.

Trigger species Fishing cat (Prionailurus viverrinus) (Vulnerable)

Population trend at start of project The fishing cat mainly feeds on fish but also preys
on waterfowl and frogs. Due to habitat degradation
and increased food competition in the Project Area,
the population of the species is decreasing.
Therefore, population trend of the species at the
start of the project is considered to be declining.

Without-project scenario In the without-project scenario, the population of the

fishing cat is highly likely to decline because the
animals and biodiversity on which it preys are both
in decline.

With-project scenario Under the with-project scenario, the population of

the fishing cat is very likely to increase due to the
fact that both the direct and indirect threats to the
species will be addressed. With better and
increased mangrove forest cover the animal, which
lives near water in protected dens and is seldom

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seen in the open during daytime, will have an

improved habitat for their reproduction, growth and
permanence. The project will also create awareness
amongst the communities about the biodiversity
significance of the species.

Trigger species Steppe Eagle (Aquila nipalensis) (Endangered)

Population trend at start of project This bird of prey, known for its keen eyesight, hunts
solitary during the day, often soaring high above
seeking small mammals and birds. During the
winter months, it migrates to the Project Zone from
Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and China.
Threatened by habitat loss and illegal hunting, The
population trend of the species at the start of the
project is therefore likely declining.

Without-project scenario In the without-project scenario, its population will

likely further decline due to poor law enforcement.

With-project scenario Under the project scenario, measures will be taken

to curb the illegal trade in the species, meaning the
population is expected to be maintained or
increased. This will be done through stricter
enforcement of the law, awareness creation, training
and capacity building, improvements in governance.

Trigger species Black-tailed Godwit (Limosa limosa) (Near

Threatened)

Population trend at start of project The population of Black-tailed Godwits is declining

globally at a rapid rate, mirroring the situation in the
Project Area where habitat loss is exacerbating the
decline.

Without-project scenario Population decline of Black-tailed Godwit continues

unchecked and because of habitat destruction and
without intervention, species faces heightened risk
of extinction regionally.

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With-project scenario With project conservation efforts and habitat

restoration, the project aims to reverse the
population decline, providing hope for its long-term
survival.

Trigger species Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus)

(Endangered)

Population trend at start of project Like elsewhere in the world, the population of
Egyptian vulture in Pakistan has a downward
population trend at the project start in DBC-2
Project Area.

Without-project scenario In the without-project scenario and any concrete

steps towards conserving the species and its
habitat, the species population would likely further
decline. This will happen due to increased threats
from the use of chemicals for injection to lactating
buffaloes for increased milk production and in
Tharparkar area, which is the main breeding ground
for this species.

With-project scenario The project through its comprehensive conservation

strategy which extends beyond the project zone will
collaborate with Sindh Wildlife Department and
other relevant conservation organizations do
advocacy work and implement actions geared
towards addressing the key threatening activities
causing the population decline of this species.

Trigger species River Tern (Sterna aurantia) (Vulnerable)

Population trend at start of project The River tern is a slender bird, about the size of a
pigeon. Its population began the project facing a
concerning decline. This species has been uplisted
to Vulnerable on the basis that increasing human
disturbance and habitat destruction.

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Without-project scenario In the absence of intervention, this decline would

likely persist, further endangering the River Tern's
survival.

With-project scenario The project aims to reverse the population decline

of the River Tern through focused conservation
efforts, including habitat restoration and community
engagement.

Trigger species Indian Flapshell Turtle (Lissemys punctata)

(Vulnerable)

Population trend at start of project A aquatic reptile, active during the day. Their flat pig-
like noses and long necks help them to just come up
to the surface of the water from time to time to
breathe. Its IUCN Red Listing indicates a decreasing
trend in population globally.

Without-project scenario In the without-project scenario this declining

population trend of the species is likely to continue
regionally too due to further habitat degradation.

With-project scenario With the project, populations of this turtle are likely
to be maintained or increase from their current
density due to the improved habitat provided by the
project interventions.

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Appendix 1: Stakeholder Description Table

Table A1.1 Communities included in the Project Zone for DBC-2, with their dependency on mangroves

No. Name of Village Population Main Ethnic Groups Dependence on Mangroves

Fuelwood (kg) Fodder (kg) Fisheries (kg) Families (no.)

1 Yousuf Mallah 420 Mallah - - 1,000 113

2 Haji Dongar 470 Fakerani Jatt - 2,000 900 60

3 Haji Qasim Thaem 750 Thaem - - 18,00 12

4 Joryo Thaemor 2,120 Thaem - 55 35,000 110

5 Hassan Bhorio 36 Bhorio - 5 75 5

6 Qasim Bhorio 1,810 Bhorio - - 25,000 250

7 Muhammad Dhandal 155 Dhandal - - 5,000 50

8 Umar Bhorio 260 Buhario - - 10,000 90

9 Basrio Thaemor 82 Thaemor - - 100 30

10 Haji Lalo Thaemor 170 Thaemor - - 8,000 40

Muhammad Ameen
11 64 Khaskheli - 65 230 20
Khaskheli

12 Noor Muhammad Thaemor 86 Thaemor - - 500 15

13 Haji Achar Thaemor 240 Thaemor - - 7,000 35

14 Raj Malak Malkani 1,380 Malkani & Jatt - - 96,000 120

15 Haji Hassan Samejo 620 Samejo - 170 - 50

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16 Allah Dino Samejo 47 Samejo - - - 7

17 Duru Racho 50 Racho - - 150 10

18 Gulam Hussain Racho 70 Racho Mallah - - 120 6

19 Haji Sumar Chalko 80 Chalko - 25 - 20

20 Sahu Rajo 570 Rajo - - - 100

21 Umar Thaimore 94 Rajo, Thaimore - - 679 30

22 Karim Dino Rajo 260 Rajo - 200 45,000 30

23 Faiz Muhammad Dhandal 450 Dhandal - - 58,000 40

24 Khan Muhammad Mallah 100 Mallah - 15 29,000 20

25 Haji Arab Racho 880 Mallah - - 97,000 60

26 Essa Mandaro 260 Mandaro - 85 - 50

27 Abdul Sattar Jatt 81 Jatt - 19 - 15

28 Mian Dhandal 550 Mallah - - 55

29 Ali Muhammad Racho 680 Racho Mallah - 80 69,000 80

Muhammad Raheem
30 100 Mandaro - 60 - 15
Mandaro

31 Lakha Dino Rajo 700 Rajo - 350 - 40

32 Golo Mandaro 850 Mandaro - - 70,000 115

33 Morio Mandaro 127 Mandaro - - - 25

34 Channey Sar 230 Mallah - - 10,000 100

35 Haji Hajam Mallah 1,100 Mallah - - 87,000 70

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36 Shaikh Keryo 210 Shaikh - - 24,000 16

37 Shaikh Keryo Bhandari 83 Shaikh - - 200 16

Memon, Mallah,
38 Bhugra Memon 4,950 Talpur, Mandaro, - 2,700 90,000 550
Shaikh, Thaemor

39 Boohar 2,000 Samejo - 500 67,000 100

Total 23,185 - 6,329 835,954 2,570

Table A1.2 Demographic structure of DBC-2 Project Zone communities

No. Name of Village Male Female Children (Boy) Children (Girl) Total Population Total Households

1 Yousuf Mallah 150 180 50 40 420 113

2 Haji Dongar 200 200 30 40 470 60

3 Haji Qasim Thaem 250 250 100 150 750 12

4 Joryo Thaemor 450 600 370 700 2,120 110

5 Hassan Bhorio 12 8 10 6 36 5

6 Qasim Bhorio 600 730 180 300 1,810 250

7 Muhammad Dhandal 35 50 30 40 155 50

8 Umar Bhorio 90 70 40 60 260 90

9 Basrio Thaemor 30 20 12 20 82 30

10 Haji Lalo Thaemor 80 40 30 20 170 40

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Muhammad Ameen 30 20 6 8 64 20
11
Khaskheli

12 Noor Muhammad Thaemor 23 35 18 10 86 15

13 Haji Achar Thaemor 100 80 30 30 240 35

14 Raj Malak Malkani 330 600 150 300 1,380 120

15 Haji Hassan Samejo 300 215 60 45 620 50

16 Allah Dino Samejo 18 9 8 12 47 7

17 Duru Racho 15 10 15 10 50 10

18 Gulam Hussain Racho 15 20 15 20 70 6

19 Haji Sumar Chalko 25 30 10 15 80 20

20 Sahu Rajo 200 225 70 75 570 100

21 Umar Thaimore 35 22 17 20 94 30

22 Karim Dino Rajo 50 100 40 70 260 30

23 Faiz Muhammad Dhandal 100 100 125 125 450 40

24 Khan Muhammad Mallah 20 30 30 20 100 20

25 Haji Arab Racho 400 250 100 130 880 60

26 Essa Mandaro 70 135 20 35 260 50

27 Abdul Sattar Jatt 21 30 20 10 81 15

28 Mian Dhandal 175 200 70 105 550 55

29 Ali Muhammad Racho 230 250 80 120 680 80

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Muhammad Raheem 30 35 15 20 100 15

30
Mandaro

31 Lakha Dino Rajo 280 270 65 85 700 40

32 Golo Mandaro 250 300 50 250 850 115

33 Morio Mandaro 60 30 22 15 127 25

34 Channey Sar 85 75 30 40 230 100

35 Haji Hajam Mallah 350 250 200 300 1,100 70

36 Shaikh Keryo 100 80 10 20 210 16

37 Shaikh Keryo Bhandari 30 25 15 13 83 16

38 Bhugra Memon 1,641 1,575 884 850 4,950 550

39 Boohar 820 800 200 180 2,000 100

Total 23,185 7,700 7,949 3,227 4,309 23,185

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Appendix 2: Socio-Economic Characteristics of Project Zone Communities

Table A2.1 Socio-economic characteristics of Project Zone communities

Time Devoted to Fishing (Days)

No. Reverse Osmosis Plants

Trend/change in fish catch
No. Community Members
Drinking Water Facilities
% Income From Fishing

Sources of Livelihood
Health Care Facilities
Engaged in Fishing

No. of Livestock
Road Transport

No. of Schools
Village Name

Literacy Rate

Road Access
Households
Village No.

Fishing,
Not Basic driving,
Yousuf Open
1 - 50 113 Yes Yes 30 190 Significan - 1 - Health business,
Mallah well
t Unit and daily
wage labour

Fishing,
driving,
Not business,
2,00
2 Haji Dongar 4.0% 40 60 RO Plant Yes Yes 10 140 Significan - - No pension
0
t income,
daily wage
labour

Not Fishing,
Haji Qasim Open
3 2.0% 20 12 Yes Yes 10 200 Significan - - - No daily wage
Thaem well
t labour

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Hand
Not
Joryo Pump & Daily wage
4 1.0% 60 110 No Yes 90 100 Significan 55 - - No
Thaemor Open labour
t
well

Livestock,
driving,
Not
Hassan Hand pension
5 - 23 5 No No 172 100 Significan 5 - - No
Bhorio Pump income,
t
daily wage
labour

Qasim Hand Driving, daily

6 2.0% 56 250 Yes No 100 90 No Data - - - No
Bhorio Pump wage labour

Not Fishing,
Muhammad 60.0 From
7 78 50 No No 60 50 Significan - 1 - No driving, daily
Dhandal % Navy
t wage labour

Fishing,
Open farming,
8 Umar Bhorio 1.0% 20 90 No No 45 40 No Data - 2 - No
well daily wage
labour

Fishing,
Basrio 70.0 Open farming,
9 39 30 No Yes 44 30 No Data - 1 - No
Thaemor % well driving,
business

Fishing,
Haji Lalo 80.0 Open farming,
10 56 40 No Yes 65 100 No Data - 1 1 No
Thaemor % well pension
income

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Muhammad Not
70.0 Hand
11 Ameen 79 20 No No 33 120 Significan 65 - - No Fishing
% Pump
Khaskheli t

Noor Not
19.0 Hand
12 Muhammad 65 15 No No 22 89 Significan - 1 - No Fishing
% Pump
Thaemor t

Not
Haji Achar Hand
13 - 22 35 Yes Yes 69 80 Significan - 1 - No Fishing
Thaemor Pump
t

Fishing,
Not
Raj Malak 55.0 Open farming,
14 56 120 Yes Yes 110 300 Significan - 1 - No
Malkani % Well daily wage
t
labour

Haji Hassan Hand

15 4.0% - 50 Yes Yes - - 0 170 1 1 No Fishing
Samejo Pump

Allah Dino Open

16 - - 7 No Yes - - 0 - - - No Fishing
Samejo well

Not Fishing,
80.0 Open
17 Duru Racho 76 10 No No 30 180 Significan - - - No daily wage
% well
t labour

Gulam Not Fishing,

18 Hussain - 54 6 open well No No 20 120 Significan - 1 - No daily wage
Racho t labour

Fishing,
Haji Sumar 35.0 Open
19 - 20 No No - - 0 25 - - No daily wage
Chalko % well
labour

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Open
20 Sahu Rajo - - 100 No No - - 0 - 1 - No Fishing
well

Not Fishing,
Umar Open
21 - 33 30 Yes Yes 90 180 Significan - 1 - No daily wage
Thaimore well
t labour

Farming,
Karim Dino Open
22 3.0% 50 30 No No 88 190 No Data 200 1 - No daily wage
Rajo well
labour

Faiz Not
Open Fishing,
23 Muhammad 0.2% 45 40 No No 85 260 Significan - - - No
well labour
Dhandal t

Khan Not Basic

48.0 Open
24 Muhammad 80 20 Yes Yes 45 260 Significan 15 - - Health Fishing
% well
Mallah t Unit

Hand
Not
Haji Arab 17.0 Pump &
25 45 60 Yes Yes 100 245 Significan - - 1 No Fishing
Racho % Open
t
well

Fishing,
farming,
Not
Essa 35.0 Hand Dispens livestock,
26 60 50 Yes Yes 69 160 Significan 85 1 -
Mandaro % Pump ary business,
t
daily wage
labour

Abdul Sattar 28.0 Hand

27 - 15 Yes Yes - - 0 19 1 - No Fishing
Jatt % Pump

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Basic
Mian Open
28 0.5% 55 55 Yes Yes 89 190 No Data - 2 - Health Fishing
Dhandal well
Unit

Ali
29 Muhammad 0.2% 55 80 RO Plant Yes Yes 150 290 No Data 80 - - No Fishing
Racho

Muhammad
49.0 Hand
30 Raheem - 15 Yes Yes - - 0 60 1 - No Fishing
% Pump
Mandaro

Lakha Dino 15.0 Hand

31 - 40 No No - - 0 350 - - No Fishing
Rajo % Pump

Golo 24.0 Hand

32 - 115 No Yes - - 0 - - - No Fishing
Mandaro % Pump

Morio 30.0 Hand

33 - 25 Yes Yes - - 0 - - - No Fishing
Mandaro % Pump

Not
90.0 Open
34 Channey Sar 66 100 Yes Yes 190 300 Significan - - - No Fishing
% well
t

Haji Hajam Open

35 0.5% 88 70 No Yes 90 190 No Data - - - No Fishing
Mallah well

Not
Shaikh 30.0 Open
36 55 16 No No 45 200 Significan - - - No Fishing
Keryo % well
t

Shaikh
Open
37 Keryo - 90 16 No No 35 169 No Data - - - No Fishing
well
Bhandari

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Hand
Not
Bhugra 44.0 Pump, 2,70
38 65 550 Yes Yes 300 300 Significan - - No Fishing
Memon % Open 0
t
well

Not
48.0 Water Daily wage
39 Boohar 24 100 Yes Yes 190 270 Significan 500 - - No
% Supply labour
t

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Appendix 3: PRAS, SBIA Workshops, FPIC Meetings

Table A3.1 PRAs, SBIA Workshops, and FPIC Meetings

Date Names of Villages Meeting Objectives/Purpose Provision/Confirmation of FPIC Participants

PRA and SBIA Workshop: Villagers affirmed their FPIC for

Begin the process of engaging the project and its various
Haji Hajam Mallah, communities and commencing interventions as well as gave
Channesar Mallah, FPIC process and conducting their input for development of
Sheikh Keryo,
SBIA workshop for Project Project Theory of Change, Shazia, Hamida, Ghulam Rasool,
Shaikh Keryo
Theory of Change identification of focal issues, Dodo, Jeaina, Bhagi, Muhammad
2-3 March Bhandario, Morio
development, identification of causal flow diagrams, Shareef, Mehboob Ali, Aarab,
2023 Mandaro, Golo
stakeholders, project identification of any potential Khalida, Riyaz, Abdullah, Qamar
Mandaro, Lakha
interventions, any potential negative impacts of the project Din
Dino Rajo,
negative impacts of the project on different stakeholder groups,
Muhammad
Raheem Mandaro and their mitigation strategies mitigation strategies, and
and development of development of the project
monitoring plan. monitoring plan.

PRA and SBIA Workshop: Villagers affirmed their FPIC for

Begin the process of engaging the project and its various
Haji Arab Racho,
communities and commencing interventions as well as gave
Ghulam Hussain
FPIC process and conducting their input for development of Maki, Hakim ali, Amina, Hajiyani,
Racho, Duru Racho,
SBIA workshop for Project Project Theory of Change, Rajab Ali, Kulsoom, Ali Hassan,
5-6 March Khan Muhammad
Theory of Change identification of focal issues, Abdul Ghafoor, Muhammad,
2023 Mallah, Faiz
development, identification of causal flow diagrams, Qamar, Zebu, Suhini, Azeem,
Muhammad
stakeholders, project identification of any potential Amnat, Matarcho
Dhandal, Essa
interventions, any potential negative impacts of the project
Mandaro
negative impacts of the project on different stakeholder groups,
and their mitigation strategies mitigation strategies, and

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and development of development of the project

monitoring plan. monitoring plan.

PRA and SBIA Workshop: Villagers affirmed their FPIC for

Begin the process of engaging the project and its various
communities and commencing interventions as well as gave
Joryo Thaemor,
FPIC process and conducting their input for development of
Qasim Bohrio,
SBIA workshop for Project Project Theory of Change, Jam Sultan, Qaim Ud Din, Saleh
Hassan Bohrio, Haji
Theory of Change identification of focal issues, Thaimor, Abdul Latif, Bachal
9-10 March Lalo Thaemor, Ali
development, identification of causal flow diagrams, Thaimor, Mubarak, Haji Mir
2023 Muhammad Racho,
stakeholders, project identification of any potential Muhammad, Hoori, Shabu,
Basrio Thaemor,
interventions, any potential negative impacts of the project Zulekhan
Umar Bhorio,
negative impacts of the project on different stakeholder groups,
Muhammad Dhandal
and their mitigation strategies mitigation strategies, and
and development of development of the project
monitoring plan. monitoring plan.

3 February Joryo Thaemor, FPIC Meeting: The purpose of Village members joined Jam Sultan, Jurio, Anwar Bhorio,
2022 Hassan Bhorio, these consultations was to meetings conducted in Sindhi or Imam Bux, Muhammad Hassah,
Qasim Bhorio decide and document at a Urdu and provided feedback Ali Sher Mangsi, Bakhef Bohrio,
point in time whether, based both during the sessions and Muhammad Ayub, Gihulam
on all prior communications, afterwards on project design, Hussain Bohrio, Yousuf Bohrio
discussions, and information problem flows and the theory of
sharing, the village and its change.
participants consent to the The outcome of all such
implementation and consultations was to provide
monitoring of project activities consent to and approve the
and the overall DBC-2 Project. implementation of project
activities.

1 February Muhammad Ameen FPIC Meeting: The purpose of Village members joined Muhammad Ameen Khask Heli,
2022 Khaskhali, Noor these consultations was to meetings conducted in Sindhi or Imtiaz Alo, Abdul Majid, Khasim
Muhammad decide and document at a Urdu and provided feedback Bux, Muhammad Rafio, Nazeer,

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Thaemor, Haji point in time whether, based both during the sessions and Ghulam, Noor Muhammad,
Hassan Samejo, Raj on all prior communications, afterwards on project design, Muhammad Amin Samejo, Ahmed
Malak Malkhani, discussions, and information problem flows and the theory of Khan Samejo, Haider Bux
Allah Dino Samejo, sharing, the village and its change. Malkahi, Ali Muhammad Jatt,
Haji Achan Thaemor participants consent to the The outcome of all such Punhal Lashari, Gudzar Samijo,
implementation and consultations was to provide Ramzan Samijo, Yousaf Samijo,
monitoring of project activities consent to and approve the Muhammad Yousaf, Minho
and the overall DBC-2 Project. implementation of project Theamor, Tyab Thaemor, Anhara
activities. Thahimoor, Ali Muhammad
Thahimoor, Allah Dhino, Tajo,
Ameer Ali Thahimoor,

26 January Abdul Saffar Jatt, FPIC Meeting: The purpose of Village members joined Karam, Muhammad Khan,
2022 Mian Dhandal, Essa these consultations was to meetings conducted in Sindhi or Jahmed Ahmed, Joghi Dhandal,
Mandaro decide and document at a Urdu and provided feedback Ali Akber Dhandal, Shabeer
point in time whether, based both during the sessions and Dhandal, Saieh Dheno, Alo Akber
on all prior communications, afterwards on project design, Ahim Ibu, Muhammad,
discussions, and information problem flows and the theory of Muhammad Hussain, Muhammad
sharing, the village and its change. Essa,
participants consent to the The outcome of all such
implementation and consultations was to provide
monitoring of project activities consent to and approve the
and the overall DBC-2 Project. implementation of project
activities.

13 January Haji Arab Racho, FPIC Meeting: The purpose of Village members joined Rahimdino Mallah, Ali Nadenz
2022 Umar Thaimore, these consultations was to meetings conducted in Sindhi or Mallah, Rafeer Mallah,
Khan Muhammad decide and document at a Urdu and provided feedback Muhammad, Muhammad
Mallah, Kareem point in time whether, based both during the sessions and Ramzan, Laka Dino Racho Malah,
Deno Rajo, Faiz on all prior communications, afterwards on project design, Asghar Malah, Allah Dino Malah,
Muhammad discussions, and information problem flows and the theory of Muhammad Ramzan Racho,
Dhandal, Ghulam sharing, the village and its change. Saddam Hussain Malah, Nazeer

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Hussain Racho, participants consent to the The outcome of all such Ahmed, Tharo Malah, Sher
Duru Racho, Haji implementation and consultations was to provide Muhammand, Ghafoo Rancho
Sumar Chalko, Sahu monitoring of project activities consent to and approve the Malah, Arab, Jamin, Ali Themor,
Rajo and the overall DBC-2 Project. implementation of project Jahoon, Ali Muhammad, Khan
activities. Muhammad, Ali Akhbar, Mehal,
Lakhano, Sikandar Alo, Banu,
Bilal, Ali Bass, Kareem Denu,
Muhammad Rafia, Azeem, Gulam
Hussain, Muhammad Hussain,
Muhammad Aachar, Muhammad
Ali, Asghar, Ramzan, Sulthan,
Sikandar, Akber, Haneef Racho,
Anwar Mallah, Musa Racho
Mallah, Muhammad Ramzan
Mallah, Ismail, Musa Mallah,
Hanif Malah, Naseema, Huwa,
Shaban Alo, Rajab Ali, Rajo
Chalko, Nazar Ali, Rajab Alo,
Qasim, Ghulan Ali, Ali Ahmed,
Ubaid ul Rehman, Hamza, Shabir
Ahmed, Allah Johrio

10 January Muhammad FPIC Meeting: The purpose of Village members joined Niaz Ahmed, Amir Bakhash, Zafar
2022 Raheem Mandaro, these consultations was to meetings conducted in Sindhi or Ali, Muhammad Babar, Allah Dino,
Lakha Dino Rajo, decide and document at a Urdu and provided feedback Muhammad Hanif Shaikh, Shahb
Shaikh Keryo, point in time whether, based both during the sessions and Gull, Muhammad Mubark, Mrs
Shaikh Keryo on all prior communications, afterwards on project design, Bubana, Mrs Sakina, Abdul
Bhandari, Golo discussions, and information problem flows and the theory of Hakeem, Tajbu, Safiya,
Mandaro, Haji sharing, the village and its change. Rabekuna, Naseema, Ameer, Ali
Hajam Mallah, Morio participants consent to the The outcome of all such Bakesh, Muhammad Shareef,
Mandaro, Channey implementation and consultations was to provide Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh,
Saz consent to and approve the Ghulan Rasool, Ayub, Sajen,

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monitoring of project activities implementation of project Anwar Sheikh, Makoo, Gul

and the overall DBC-2 Project. activities. Muhammad, Muhammad Uras,
Mahboob Ali, Muhammad Anwar,
Muhammad Malah, Muhammad
Juman, Abdul Wahid, Noor
Muhammad, Allah Joohrio, Allah
Backaye, Rabu, Shamsul Din,
Muhammad Azeem, Muhammad
Riaz, Shabeer Alo, Raja Ahmed,
Khuda Baksh, Mumtaz Ali,
Kathero, Qamar Din, Wurbah,
Muhammad Essa, Abdul Aziz,
Muhammad Sadea, Achar Malah,
Ali Mufad, Sher Muhammad,
Muhammad Yousuf, Nabi Bux,
Muhammad Sadeem, Ashraf, Atta
Muhammad, Mehboob Alo, Qadir
Bukesh, Kheir Muhammad, Abdul
Saffar,

31 Haji Dongar, Haji FPIC Meeting: The purpose of Village members joined Qasim Jatt, Aari Faveerani Jatt,
December Qasim Thaem, these consultations was to meetings conducted in Sindhi or Allah Dheho Jatt, Ahmed Jatt,
2021 Yousaf Mallah decide and document at a Urdu and provided feedback Abdul Hameed Jatt, Muhammad
point in time whether, based both during the sessions and Jatt, Ghulam Nabi Jatt, Khadim
on all prior communications, afterwards on project design, Jatt, Nazar Muhammad Jatt, Soof
discussions, and information problem flows and the theory of Jatt, Moriyo Jatt, Ali Jatt, Charo
sharing, the village and its change. Jatt, Kambro Jatt, Raheem Jatt,
participants consent to the The outcome of all such Ali Ahmed, Mahzoor Thaem,
implementation and consultations was to provide Mahboob Ali, Muhammad
monitoring of project activities consent to and approve the Hussain, Deen Muhammad
and the overall DBC-2 Project. implementation of project Thaem, Abdullah, Abdul Shakoor
activities. Thaem, Noor Ubadeen Thaem,

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Manthar Thaheem, Noor Ali

Thaheem, Rasool Baksh Thaheem

4 Haji Lalo Thaemor, FPIC Meeting: The purpose of Village members joined Saddea Thaimoor, Mousman
December Basrio Thaemor, these consultations was to meetings conducted in Sindhi or Thaimoor, Abdul Latif Thaimoor,
2021 Muhammad decide and document at a Urdu and provided feedback Mannoo Thaimoor, Mohanif
Dhandal, Umar point in time whether, based both during the sessions and Thaimoor, Alu Oly, Ramzah, Latif
Bhorio, Ali on all prior communications, afterwards on project design, Thaimoor, Skindar Dhandal,
Muhammad Racho discussions, and information problem flows and the theory of Qusban Dhandal, Qadis Dhandal,
sharing, the village and its change. Ali Asghar Dhandal, Al Rakio
participants consent to the The outcome of all such Dhandal, Asmaid Dhandal,
implementation and consultations was to provide Jumman, Skindar Shareef, Rajab
monitoring of project activities consent to and approve the Ali Dhandal, Meer Dhandal,
and the overall DBC-2 Project. implementation of project Muhammand Abrahim, Soomar
activities. Dhandal, Hassan Bhorio, Hameer
Bhorio, Hamid Bhorio, Humtaz
Bhorio, Hodos Bhorio, Nawaz
Bhorio, Abbas Bhorio, Shareef
Bhorio, Hassan Bhorio, Abdul
Saffao, Ali Shor Bhorio, Abdul
Razzoeu, Nawab Bhorio, Gul
Muhammad Racho, Abdul
Ghafoor Racho, Asghar Ali Malah,
Meer Muhammad Racho Malah,
Wazeer Ahmed Racho Malah,
Tayab Racho Malah, Mohammad
Haneef Racho Malah,
Mohammad Azeem, Rasool Baksh
Racho. Abdul Racho Malah,
Hamoor Mala, Alofahim Racho
Malah, Hakeem Mallah, Zameer

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Racho Malah, Aziz Ullah Malah,

Makkio Malah

Appendix 4: Commercially Sensitive Information

Section Information Justification

No information required to be included in the Project Legal requirement of confidentiality.

Description has been withheld on the basis of
commercial sensitivity. When and if the VVB requires
Information that the Government of Sindh is required by
Not Applicable
law to keep confidential (section 10. (1) of Sindh Act
No.XV of 2017 relating to Right to Information), this
information will be provided to the VVB only and not as
an amendment to the public document.
No information required to be included in the Project The information is commercially sensitive
Description has been withheld on the basis of financial information.
commercial sensitivity. When and if the VVB requires
Not Applicable
additional, as yet unspecified, information that is
commercially sensitive financial information, this will be
provided to the VVB only and not released publicly.

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Appendix 5: Stakeholder Analysis

Table A5.1 Stakeholder analysis

Stakeholder or stakeholder Current activities and impact Project strategy and effect of Relationship with other
sub-group on landscape project on activities stakeholders (partnership/conflict)

Subsistence users of coastal Their use may be regulated to Identification of individual users If they try to establish any right with
resources and owners of avoid overharvesting, but they is difficult, and changes over respect to land or any other coastal
adjoining lands: Long- term de would not have been expected time. Not a well-organised resource, they will be asked to
facto use of mangroves and to negatively impact forests. grouping and power to enforce produce ownership certificates of the
other coastal resources They may be among the most is likely limited. They therefore lands that they owned prior to the
effective at monitoring status. would be organised into Village land getting planted with mangroves
Development Committees under DBC-2. However, this will likely
(VDCs) and Women not be the case as the entire Project
Organisations (WOs) so as to Area is state owned property.
work with them as cohesive
bodies instead of individuals.
Individual households: Possible Monitoring responsibilities can Enforcement would have to rely Illegal extraction of mangroves wood,
to provide household forest be clearly defined and targeted. on government. Measures will fodder and other resources like over-
protection contracts that clearly Likely to be the most cost be taken that the Mangrove fishing or use of fishing nets with
define rights and responsibilities effective because engaging Stewardship Agreements are illegal mesh size and types.
under Mangrove Stewardship them in Mangrove Stewardship implemented in their letter and Households may think that they have
Agreements Agreements (MSAs) and spirit. lost their subsistence living or income
targeting payments to earning opportunities. Therefore,
individuals as part of MSAs is there is potential of conflict between
possible. the concerned department and
individual households if they resort to
activities that are prohibited.
These potential sources of conflict will
be dealt with through awareness
raising, training and capacity building

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in various types of alternative

livelihoods earning opportunities. For
youth and women there will be special
targeted programmes so as to
enhance economic opportunities for
them
Coastal Villages: Lack explicit Best suited to enforce and make Currently not organised into The same as for individual
rights, but proximity means they rules over resource use, if village organisations (VOs) or households. They will also be
can influence management, supported through co- community organisations (COs). organised into village organisations
likely overlap with subsistence management arrangements These coastal villages do not ore community organisations. Males
users have any legal rights to will be organised into village
mangroves which are state development organisations (VDOs)
property and declared as and females into Women
Protected Forests under the Organisations (WOs).
Forest Act. The project will They will be motivated to get involved
ensure that there is no elite in the implementation of various
capture of any project benefits project activities both as staff, labour
to the village. Their support for and as suppliers of inputs.
DBC-2 will be through communal Communities will be linked to
infrastructure development microfinance organisations
projects
Coastal and Marine Fisheries Decide on allocation of land and These authorities may have Close linkages will have to be
Department Authorities: Coastal rights to fisheries resources and some interest in DBC-2 activities developed with them so that they are
authorities and Marine Fisheries implementation of their which are related to matters motivated to provide better services
Department authorities make respective policies and laws for that fall within their mandate. to DBC-2 communities
decisions with regard to various various purposes and therefore DBC-2 will do advocacy work
aspects of coastal areas have management rights and with them to bring them on
including enforcement of responsibilities. Coastal board as their activities have an
fisheries laws and monitoring of authorities allocate contracts for impact on DBC-2 and local
the areas. Fisheries Department coal, gas and oil pipelines. communities with which DBC-2
also owns some of the Reverse Marine Fisheries Department is working
Osmosis (RO) plants in the area. enforces fisheries related laws
and policies. Have some
monitoring ability

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Full Surrounding Communities: Limited impact beyond the Too many people with too little Awareness raising and provision of
Have rights over the area coastal villages direct impact on the service. employment opportunities in project
through de facto usages and Main intervention would be activities
tacit political support awareness raising about DBC-2
and its positive impacts on the
communities and the
ecosystems and their services
Fishing Communities: Directly If fishermen have rights over- Fishing rights have been Skills building in aquaculture, crab
adjacent to mangrove areas and fishing in neighbouring assigned in recent years. Fishing farming, fish processing, marketing
may have some fish harvesting mangrove forests, they could be communities need to be made and value additions. Also, they will be
and use certificates in and paid to forego those rights to aware of two important aspects: made aware of the impact of their
around mangrove areas. ensure sustainable fishing over the role of mangroves as fish over-harvesting fishing practices and
time, as in a conservation spawning sites and therefore use of illegal net types and nets mesh
easement. playing a role in their sizes on over-all fish population, fish
They may be paid to forego their conservation and area increase; species diversity and consequences
rights to restore fisheries and and the need for sustainable of these practices for their
mangroves in the area. fish harvesting so that their sustainable livelihood outcomes over
livelihoods can be sustained and the long-term.
improved over time.
Provincial Governments: Implement policy and legal Sindh Forest Department is the Training and capacity building of the
Establish rules around frameworks. But usually face lead agency in implementation various Government departments for
mangrove protection and constraints in implementing of DBC-2. It had financial and better services provision to the
administer and finance their mandates. technical problems in restoring communities in light of their given
enforcement mangrove forests without this mandates
project. Therefore, this project
has been developed so that the
revenue from carbon credit
sales could be used for
financing investment in
mangrove forests restoration
and development

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Appendix 6: Training and Capacity Building

Table A6.1 Stakeholder Training and Capacity Building

Topic Target Description Outcome Duration

Data and Project Provide training on Data and One-day training

information employees and data collection, information properly and hands on
management selected storage and managed and easily experiences
community analysis accessed
members
Project boundary Project Provide training on Project boundaries One-week
establishment employees and boundary easily established, training and
selected establishment on and their relevant hands on
community maps and in the information experiences
members field collected, archived
and stored for future
access
Participatory Project Zone Training on Community maps One-week
planning, communities, participatory land- digitised, and village training and
monitoring and relevant use mapping and plans endorsed by hands on
evaluation government village planning, the local experience
agencies such monitoring and governments and
as Forest evaluation communities
Department, and
employees
Socio-economic Employees and Field based training Socio-economic One-week
survey methods Project Zone on socio-economic survey team training and
communities surveys, survey established, and hands on
instruments activities run experiences
development,
instruments
administration, data
recording and
analysis and report
preparation
Biodiversity Employees and Field based training Biodiversity survey One-week
survey methods Project Zone on flora and fauna team established, training and
communities survey, survey and activities run hands on
instruments experiences
development,
phenology,
identification and
data recording and

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analysis and report

preparation
Mangroves Project Zone Field based training Nursery facilities Two-days training
propagules communities, on propagules developed and and hands on
collection and employees collection, nursery operational experience
nurseries raising establishment and
activities operation and
maintenance
Mangroves Communities Mangrove planting Tree planting One-day training
planting activities techniques and underway at planting and hands on
maintenance of the season time experience
planted areas
Carbon MRV Project Zone Field and classroom MRV teams formed, One-week
communities, based. Provide and necessary training and
employees training and equipment and hands on
equipment for the facilities provided experience
measurement,
monitoring and
reporting of
biomass and soil
organic carbon
Community Project Zone Field and classroom Community One-week
development communities, based. Provide development related training and
related MRV employees training and MRV teams formed, hands on
equipment for the and necessary experience
measurement, equipment and
monitoring and facilities provided
reporting of
community
development
activities
Biodiversity Project Zone Field and classroom Biodiversity related One-week
related MRV communities, based. Provide MRV team formed, training and
employees training and and necessary hands-on
equipment or the equipment and experience
measurement, facilities provided
monitoring and
reporting of
biodiversity both
floral and faunal
Basic Skills in Project Zone Classroom and on- Entrepreneurs Three-days
various Income communities, the-job training on established, and kits training and
generating employees various income for certain income hands-on
activities relating generating activities experience

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to all aspects generating activities

including provided
production,
processing,
marketing and
value addition-
aquaculture/crab
culture,
agriculture,
livestock,
handicrafts,
ecotourism
Controlled Project Zone Field based training Effective measures One-day training
grazing communities on controlled for controlled and hands on
measures grazing techniques grazing in place experience
Conflict Project Zone Classroom and on- Conflict resolution One-day training
mediation communities, the-job training mechanism in place
local provide training on and understood by
governments, formal conflict community
employees mitigation and stakeholders
resolution
processes

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Appendix 7: Coastal Wetland Soil Carbon Stock Accounting Tool

Rationale

The purpose of this simple geometric calculation tool is to explore changes in tidal wetland (marsh or mangrove)
soil volume and carbon stock in response to sea level rise and erosion under a range of geomorphic parameters
that influence wetland resilience (Figure A6.1).

Source: Environmental Science Associates

Figure A7.1. Conceptualisation of tidal wetland landward transgression with sea level rise.

Model construct

The tool is based on a model of a 1 m strip through a tidal wetland surface (B2-B3) width, set at model initiation
(Figure A6.2). This wetland is bounded by an upland (A1-A2) and a mudflat (A4-A5), each with a definable slope.
Tidal range and initial soil depth are definable parameters. Wetland surface is assumed to be at Mean High Water
Spring Elevation (e.g., half the tidal range). The seaward edge of the wetland can be ascribed a cliff edge of zero
or greater (B3 to B4). Soil depth (B3-A3) can be defined based on reference site conditions or set to a common
reference depth of 1 m. The tool calculates annual time steps for a 100-year period change in soil volume,

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responding to wetland accretion capacity (set by a non-dynamic variable105), landward transgression (calculated
from wetland surface elevation gain and upland slope), and wetland edge retreat.

Changes in soil carbon stock are based upon changes in soil volume and a carbon density variable. The fate of
eroded carbon can also be set. For instance, an assumption could be made that 80% of eroded soil carbon is
remineralised in well-oxygenated and energetic nearshore settings, or lower percentage for depositional sinks.

Wetland resilience to sea level rise and sensitivity to ‘elevation capital’ 106 can be explored by varying tidal range
(which sets wetland elevation above mean tides [and assumes drowning elevation]), as well as definable wetland
accretion and sea level rise parameters.

Figure A7.2. Model schematic.

Outputs

The tool provides visual and tabular outputs in annual timesteps (Figure A6.3) for:

• Tidal wetland profile evolution – calculating location relative to initial condition back of the wetland,
wetland edge as well as wetland width (extent of wetland from the water’s edge to the upland).
• Tidal wetland volume – calculating net change based on surface accretion and edge erosion and
landwards migration.

The current version of the tool does not represent suspended sediment delivery specifically but through a
105

prescribed wetland accretion rate of 10 mm yr-1. This is a simplification of a process known to be non-linear. The
accretion rate value would be considered high in other locations but for the highly muddy coastline of the
Guianas, this value is likely conservatively low. Future versions of the tool may include variable accretion based
upon wetland surface elevation relative to tidal frame and sediment concentration.
106
Elevation capital reflects the height of a tidal wetland surface above the drowning elevation of the vegetation,
and as such reflects the amount of sea level rise a wetland can accommodate before vegetation drowns.

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• Tidal wetland soil carbon stock (per metre segment of wetland for a given width) based on changes
in soil volume and a soil carbon density input.
Wetland edge erosion rate and distance may be set based upon:

• The rate of sea level rise and the slope of a mudflat (e.g., to analyse geomorphic settings where
mudflat elevation is in dynamic equilibrium with sediment supply and wave energy, and sediment
supply is sufficient to maintain mudflat building with sea level rise).
• A defined rate of lateral retreat (e.g., to analyse settings where either the slope is not defining the
rate of wetland loss such as sheltered locations or a constructed intervention has been placed to
protect the edge from erosion).
• A combination of sea level rise and a defined lateral retreat (addition of one and two).
Three IPCC (AR5) eustatic sea level rise projections have been selected to bracket a range of low (RCP2.6 mean),
medium (RCP8.5 mean) and high (RCP8.5 max) scenarios (Table A6.1; IPCC 2014).

Figure A7.3. Model outputs.

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Table A7.1. Projected change in global mean surface temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid-
and late 21st century, relative to 1995-2005 period (IPCC, 2014).

Source: IPCC 2014

Closing

The inputs to the tool are uncalibrated but based upon best judgement to represent the coastal conditions and
to test sensitivity to a high rate of sea level rise. Calibration can be improved with data on shoreline topography
and bathymetry, time averaged surface water suspended sediment concentrations and regional sea level rise
rates.

For additional information on geomorphic modelling for coastal systems, see:

Deng, Junjie & Woodroffe, Colin & Rogers, Kerrylee & Harff, Jan. (2017). Morphogenetic modelling of coastal and
estuarine evolution. Earth-Science Reviews. 171. 254-271. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.05.011.

Whitehouse, R.J.S, Cooper, N., Pethick, J., Spearman, J., Townend, I.H. and Fox, D. Dealing with
geomorphological concepts and broad scale approaches for estuaries. In: 40th Defra Flood and Coastal
Management Conference, 5 - 7 July 2005, York, UK. http://eprints.hrwallingford.co.uk/75/

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Appendix 8: Application of The Coastal Wetland SOC Tool in The Indus Delta
An application of the Coastal Wetland Soil Carbon Stock Accounting Tool (CWSCSAT) to a hypothetical shore profile
on the Indus Delta is explored below. Though the model is uncalibrated, it is possible through explicated
assumptions and available information to investigate the sensitivity of the shoreline and mangroves to sea level
rise and erosion. Key parameters that drive sensitivity to sea level rise and erosion are explored.

Model setup

Fixed variables:

• Vertical land movement (0)

• SLR curve (High – AR5 RPC8.5 max)
• C density (0.026 g cm-3)
• Oxidised fraction of remobilised C (80%)
Erosion mechanism: (scenario 3 based upon specified erosion and sea level rise rate)

Additional information: Mean Spring Tide Range set conservative at 3 m.

Tested scenarios

A base model setup is provided in Figure A7.1. The model is parameterised to begin in 2015 and end in 2075,
which represent the project’s start and end date. For the basis of comparison, an assumed width of 20 km
(20,000 m) is applied, which encompasses current dense and sparse mangroves, plantations, and degraded/de-
vegetated areas. The mangrove/degraded area is assumed to transition to open mudflat at a 1 m cliff. The slope
of adjacent upland is 1:500 and mudflat 1:500. Sea level rise is assumed to rise at a high rate and attain 0.54
m above present levels by the year 2075 to test sensitivity to greatest extent of sea level change over the project’s
duration. Initial elevation of the mangrove surface is set at 1 m above mean sea level.

Observations from model

With an accretion rate of 3 mm yr-1, the mangrove likely has meaningful elevation capital to maintain the
forest against sea level rise over the coming decades. The average elevation of the mangrove soil surface
is not known. Applying an assumption that much of this surface is at least 1 m above mean sea level, and
that the mangrove has a minimal capacity to build soil at 10 mm yr-1 would keep the mangrove above
drowning elevation through 2120. Even with retreat of the mangrove edge (243 m over 100 years), the
mangrove – coastal forest will be a net sink of carbon both over a crediting period of 20-50 years and
over the 100-year timeframe.
Figure A8.2 illustrates the implications of sea level rise if the mangrove has 50 cm of elevation capital rather
than 100 cm. Under both conditions, the mangrove would not drown within the 100-year time frame. Gain
of soil carbon across the mangrove surface would exceed losses at the eroding edge.
The scale of existing intact coastal forest along much of the NBS-LME coastline is a benefit to potential carbon
management. Reducing mangrove width to 500 m from 3,000 m, a gradual carbon accumulation is

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calculated that declines towards zero at the end of the century and carbon loss with erosion from the
mangrove edge exceeds carbon accumulation on the surface (Figure A7.3). Nevertheless, under modelled
conditions, a 500 m width of mangrove would not be a net source of soil carbon over the 100-year
timeframe.
Figure A8.4 explores the sensitivity of the carbon stock losses to assumptions about the morphology of the
mangrove edge and mudflat slope. The base model assumes a 100 cm high slope break at the edge of
the mangrove. The morphology of the slope break can vary considerably depending upon tidal range,
wave exposure, capacity of the mangrove to build and maintain an edge in an erosional environment and
the mudflat dynamics in response to increased wave energy. In this case, differences in carbon stock
change trajectories are insignificant.
Figure A8.5 illustrates the sensitivity of carbon stock calculations associated with assumptions about
dominant slope of intertidal mudflat. Shallowing the intertidal slope from to 0.002 (1:500) from 0.005
(1:200) and maintaining sea level using the high RCP 8.5 max scenario trajectory results in a retreat of
the mangrove edge by 609 m compared with 243 m for a wide carbon stock. There is minimal difference
in net soil carbon stock over the long term driven (220,968 versus 209,486 tonne C per unit width of
mangrove) driven by assumptions of mangrove capacity to build with sea level rise even as the edge
retreats.

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Figure A8.1: Illustration of the model setup. Within the model, initial mangrove surface elevation (and hence elevation capital) is set by adjusting
tidal range. Here the mangrove surface is 1 mMSL (m above mean sea level) and an accretion rate of 10 mm yr -1 maintains vegetation at or just
above the mangrove drowning elevation by year 2075. Retreat of a 1 m high cliff mangrove edge by 1.3 km with erosion and sea level rise over
the project duration leads to release of soil carbon, 80% of which is assumed to be mineralised.

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Figure A8.2. Model estimates of mangrove soil C stock change over 100 years: mangrove width = 3,000
m, with (left) elevation capital = 1 m and (right) elevation capital = 0.5 m.

Figure A8.3. Model estimates of mangrove soil C stock change over 100 years: elevation capital 1 m, with
(left) mangrove width = 3,000 m and (right) mangrove width = 500 m.

Figure A8.4. Model estimates of mangrove soil C stock change over 100 years: elevation capital = 1 m
and mangrove width = 3,000 m, with an edge cliff reduced in height from (left) 0.5 m to (right) 0 m.
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Figure A8.5. Model estimates of mangrove soil C stock change over 100 years: elevation capital = 1 m
and mangrove width = 3,000 m; the mudflat slope decreases from (left) 1:200 to (right) 1:500 with a cliff
edge height increased to 1 m.

Literature cited

IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K.
Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

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Appendix 9: Estimated Areas Under Red Rice Cultivation in The Indus Delta
Table A9.1 Estimated areas under red rice cultivation in the Indus Delta

Sr. No District Taluka Name of deh Est. red rice area (acres)

uu1 Badin Badin Lareeri 2,301

2 Badin Badin Chorhadi 2,508
3 Badin Badin Pateji 5,879
4 Badin Badin Sando 3,959
5 Badin Badin Thath Chack 1 &2 & Frontage 12,128

6 Badin Badin Dharan 7,876

7 Sujawal/Thatta Jati Appan 1,813
8 Sujawal/Thatta Jati Las 3,635
9 Sujawal/Thatta Jati Mehr 1,532
10 Sujawal/Thatta Jati Dhangi 3,717
11 Sujawal/Thatta Jati Weki 2,213
12 Sujawal/Thatta Jati Duhar Chak No:2 8,345
13 Sujawal/Thatta Jati Appan-II 3,615
14 Badin Shaheed Fazal Rahu Girahri Chak 2 4,490
15 Badin Shaheed Fazal Rahu Ahmed Rajo Chak 1 to 6 31,900
16 Badin Shaheed Fazal Rahu Girahri Chak 5 1,746
17 Badin Shaheed Fazal Rahu Akri Chak 2 1,090
18 Badin Shaheed Fazal Rahu Ahmed Rajo Chak 1 1,044
Total 99,790

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Figure A9.2 Red Rice Areas

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Appendix 10: Projection of Future Conditions in The Baseline and Project

Scenarios
The tables below list the key variables determining the future GHG emissions and refer to sections in this
PD where results are further elaborated.

Relevant definitions in VMD0019

Types

Process Specific: Variations in the value of the variable are associated with specific actions, ongoing events,
or global conditions, rather than with specific locations.

Location Specific: Variations in the value of a variable are tied to a specific location, and typically that the
value of the variable changes across the landscape.

Categories

Controlled: Change in a variable is under the control of the project proponent.

Planned: Changes in the value of the variable are under the control of identified agents who are
independent of the project proponent.

Systemic. The future value of the variable is systemic if changes in the variable depend primarily on one or
more conditions whose future value is not subject to knowable plans, typically because they involve or
depend on the actions and influences of unknown actors and/or large-scale systems outside of local
control. For instance, cattle grazing intensities in the area may go down if there is a large drop in the price
of beef.

Temporal character

Inherent. The variable is an inherent characteristic of the area or the natural processes affecting the area,
and therefore the variable existed without human intervention or existed as a result of human actions over
a very long period of time in the past (for instance, traditional landscape burning by indigenous peoples).

Caused. The variable is a characteristic which arose as a result of some specific human action at a known
time, and therefore has a clear start (for instance, commencement of grazing of domestic sheep in an area).

Projected. The variable is a characteristic which will arise as a result of projected human activities at some
time in the future under the baseline scenario (for instance, humans caused deforestation in an area which
currently has never been deforested).

Intended. The variable is a characteristic which will arise as a result of the project activities under the
project scenario (for instance, emissions from project activities).

Baseline scenario

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Step 1: Define the geographic area(s) within which the variable is to be projected

Project Area
Step 2: Identify the scenario under which the variable is to be projected

Baseline scenario
Step 3: Determine the type and category of the variable being projected

See Table A9.1

Step 4: Temporal character of the variable

See Table A9.1

Step 5: Determination of the steps to be taken to project the future value of the variable

See Table A9.1

Table A10.1. Type, category and temporal character of variables in the baseline scenario; steps for
projections.

Variable Type Category Temporal Relevant steps in

character module107

Sediment supply Process specific Systemic Caused Steps 1-6

in the Indus Delta
Step 8-10

Step 13

Freshwater Process specific Systemic Caused Steps 1-6

supply in the
Indus Delta Step 8-10

Step 13

Sea level rise and Process specific Systemic Inherent Steps 1-6
associated
submergence Step 8-10
and erosion
Step 13

107
Following Figure 1 in the module

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Natural Location specific Systemic Inherent Steps 1-5

regeneration
Steps 7-10

Step 14

Tree harvesting, Location specific Planned Projected Steps 1-5

grazing
Step 7

Steps 9-10

Step 12

Step 6: Analysis of historic trends for process specific variables

See Table A10.2

Table A10.2. Historic trends for process specific variables in the baseline scenario.

Variable Type Summary

Sediment supply Process specific Extensive engineering works for irrigation purposes
in the Indus Delta between the 1950s and 70s have reduced sediment load
Systemic of the Indus River. This, together with the extreme levels
of wave energy, has caused rapid wave reworking and
Caused
transgression of the Indus Delta. The end product is a
wave-dominated delta, characterised as a transgressive
sand body, capped by extensive aeolian dune deposits.

The reduced sediment supply has exacerbated the

degradation of mangrove habitats.

Freshwater Process specific The Indus Delta receives its fresh water and sediment
supply in the supply from the Indus River, which flows through the
Indus Delta Systemic delta before reaching the Arabian Sea. The Indus Delta
shelf is 150 km wide and receives minimal rainfall during
Caused
the monsoon season.

The reduced supply of freshwater has exacerbated the

degradation of mangrove habitats.

Sea level rise and Process specific Section 3.1.3.2.2

associated
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submergence Systemic The historic trend is not relevant, as is has no predictive

and erosion value for future sea level rise
Inherent

Step 7: Analysis of historic trends for location specific variables

See Table A10.3

Table A10.3. Historic trends for location specific variables in the baseline scenario.

Variable Type Summary

Natural Location specific This variable is directly assessable through remote

regeneration sensing.
Systemic
Remote sensing footage shows that due various reasons,
Inherent natural regeneration of vegetation in the Indus Delta
after mangrove habitat degradation is insignificant.

There are ecological barriers that hinder the natural re-

generation process in the Project Area. These include the
non-availability/non-reaching of mangrove propagules to
certain areas (particularly high lying areas or those
without natural vegetation), flushing out of the
propagules out of the site with tide water (especially
those of Avicennia marina which have smaller
propagules), and damage to the degenerated areas on
account of biotic pressure in terms of grazing, fodder
collection, etc..

Tree harvesting, Location specific Over a number of decades, mangrove forests in the Indus
grazing Delta have experienced massive-scale deforestation and
Planned degradation due to a number of contributing factors.
These include their use by the local communities as a
Projected
source of fuelwood, fodder and open range grazing by
livestock.

Step 8: Determine the drivers and agents influencing the variable

See Table A10.4

Step 9: Reassess the category of variable being projected
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No changes
Step 10 Analysis of constraints to future values of the variable

See Table A10.4

Table A10.4. Drivers and agents; constraints to future values of the variables in the baseline scenario.

Variable Type Step 8: Drivers and agents Step 10: Constraints

Sediment supply Process specific Upstream activities in the The main constraint has
in the Indus Delta Indus River including occurred in the past and no
Systemic construction works, future additional
irrigation, under constraints are likely to
Caused
government control. occur

Freshwater Process specific Upstream activities in the The main constraint has
supply in the Indus River including occurred in the past and no
Indus Delta Systemic construction works, future additional
irrigation, under constraints are likely to
Caused
government control occur

Sea level rise and Process specific Not relevant No constraints

associated
submergence Systemic
and erosion
Inherent

Natural Location specific Ecological barriers The driver is likely to

regeneration including lack of mangrove continue in line with the
Systemic propagules, and grazing historic trend
and fodder collection
Inherent

Tree harvesting, Location specific Local communities using The driver is likely to
grazing mangroves and its habitat continue in line with the
Planned as a source of fuelwood historic trend
and fodder, and area for
Projected
grazing by livestock

Step 11: Projection of controlled variables

None
Step 12: Projection of planned variables
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See Table A10.5

Step 13: Projection of process specific systemic variables

See Table A10.5

Step 14: Projection of location specific systemic variables

See Table A10.5

Table A10.5. Projection of variables in the baseline scenario.

Variable Type Step Results

Sediment supply Process specific 13 Sediment supply is likely to continue in line

in the Indus Delta with the historic trend
Systemic

Caused

Freshwater Process specific 13 Freshwater supply is likely to continue in line

supply in the with the historic trend
Indus Delta Systemic

Caused

Sea level rise and Process specific 13 According to IPCC scenario

associated
submergence Systemic
and erosion
Inherent

Natural Location specific 13 Natural regeneration is likely to be thwarted

regeneration completely, in line with the historic trend
Systemic

Inherent

Tree harvesting, Location specific 12, 14 Tree harvesting and grazing are likely to
grazing continue in line with the historic trend
Planned

Projected

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Project scenario

Step 1: Define the geographic area(s) within which the variable is to be projected

Project Area
Step 2: Identify the scenario under which the variable is to be projected

Project scenario
Step 3: Determine the type and category of the variable being projected

See Table A10.6

Step 4: Temporal character of the variable

See Table A10.6

Step 5: Determination of the steps to be taken to project the future value of the variable

See Table A10.6

Table A10.6. Type, category and temporal character of variables in the project scenario; steps for
projections.

Variable Type Category Temporal nature Relevant steps in

module

Sediment supply Process specific Systemic Caused Steps 1-6

in the Indus Delta
Step 8-10

Step 13

Freshwater Process specific Systemic Caused Steps 1-6

supply in the
Indus Delta Step 8-10

Step 13

Sea level rise and Process specific Systemic Inherent Steps 1-6
associated
submergence Step 8-10
and erosion
Step 13

Vegetation Location specific Controlled Intended Steps 1-5

development
Step 7-10

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Step 11

Tree harvesting, Location specific Controlled Intended Steps 1-5

grazing
Step 10

Step 11

Step 6: Analysis of historic trends for process specific variables

See Table A10.7

Table A10.7. Historic trends for process specific variables in the project scenario.

Variable Type Summary and reference to section with elaborated

results

Sediment supply Process specific See baseline scenario

in the Indus Delta
Systemic

Caused

Freshwater Process specific See baseline scenario

supply in the
Indus Delta Systemic

Caused

Sea level rise and Process specific See baseline scenario

associated
submergence Systemic
and erosion
Inherent

Step 7: Analysis of historic trends for location specific variables

See Table A10.8

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Table A10.8. Historic trends for location specific variables in the project scenario.

Variable Type Summary

Vegetation Location specific This variable is directly assessable through remote

development sensing.
Controlled
Historic trends are not relevant for the project scenario.
Intended
Natural regeneration of mangrove since the start of the
ARR programme in 2015 is not part of the baseline
scenario and will be included in the monitoring of the
project scenario.

Tree harvesting, Location specific

grazing
Controlled

Intended

Step 8: Determine the drivers and agents influencing the variable

See Table A10.9

Step 9: Reassess the category of variable being projected

No changes
Step 10 Analysis of constraints to future values of the variable

See Table A10.9

Table A10.9. Drivers and agents; constraints to future values of the variables in the project scenario.

Variable Type Step 8: Drivers and agents Step 10: Constraints

Sediment supply Process specific See baseline scenario See baseline scenario
in the Indus Delta
Systemic

Caused

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Freshwater Process specific See baseline scenario See baseline scenario

supply in the
Indus Delta Systemic

Caused

Sea level rise and Process specific See baseline scenario See baseline scenario
associated
submergence Systemic
and erosion
Inherent

Vegetation Location specific See baseline scenario Section 2.4.5; 2.1.20

development
Controlled No constraints other than
sufficient funding
Intended

Tree harvesting, Location specific See baseline scenario See baseline scenario
grazing
Controlled No constraints to
implementing the
Intended Mangrove Stewardship
Agreement other than
sufficient funding

Step 11: Projection of controlled variables

See Table A10.10

Step 12: Projection of planned variables

None
Step 13: Projection of process specific systemic variables

See Table A10.10

Step 14: Projection of location specific systemic variables

None

Table A10.10. Projection of variables in the project scenario.

Variable Type Step Results

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Sediment supply Process specific 13 See baseline scenario

in the Indus Delta
Systemic

Caused

Freshwater Process specific 13 See baseline scenario

supply in the
Indus Delta Systemic

Caused

Sea level rise and Process specific 13 See baseline scenario

associated
submergence Systemic
and erosion
Inherent

Vegetation Location specific 11 Section 3.2.2.1

development
Controlled Project developer projects the plantation of
some 250,000 hectares of mangrove forest
Intended

Tree harvesting, Location specific 11 See baseline scenario

grazing
Controlled Project developer has Mangrove Stewardship
Agreement with communities, which stops
Intended tree harvesting and grazing in the project
scenario

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Appendix 11: Pre-Project Land Cover and Vegetation Development

Pre-project vegetation in the Project Area is almost absent. However, some mangrove tree vegetation
does exist, in particular along creeks.

To assess whether this vegetation would stock significant amounts of carbon in the baseline scenario,
remote sensing imagery was analysed for presence of mangrove trees. In three areas (see Figure A11.1 for
their locations) a detailed assessment was performed to quantify the area covered.

Figure A11.1. Location of three sample areas for baseline vegetation within the
Project Area.

The times series in Figures A11.2 – A.11.4 show a very sparse presence of mangrove since 2000. The
areas of mangrove vegetation, distinguishing sparse and dense, are provided in Table A10.1.

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Figure A11.2. Time series of land cover during the period 2000-2022 Badin near Sir Creek 1.

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Figure A11.3. Time series of land cover during the period 2000-2022 Badin near Sir Creek 2.

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FigureA11.4. Time series of land cover during the period 2000-2022 Badin near Sir Creek 3.

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Table A11.1. Land cover in three sample areas in a time series 2000-2022

Class/ Year 2000 2010 2022

Sample Location – 1 Ha

De-vegetated wetland 1,563 1,588 1,643

Mangrove Nil Nil Nil

Water 205 180 150

Sample Location – 2 Ha

De-vegetated wetland 4,511 4,581 4,582

Mangrove Nil Nil Nil

Water 772 2 1

Sample Location – 3 Ha

De-vegetated wetland 4,511 4,550 4,580

Mangrove Nil 42 74

Water 772.04 Nil 97

Table A11.2. Share of mangrove cover in year 2014.

Latitude in Longitude in
Location De-vegetated Mangroves Water Total area
degrees degrees

ha

Sample 24.03402 68.58741 1,643 Nil 97 1,814

Location - 1

99.8% 0%

Sample 24.05629 68.44192 4,582 Nil 1 4,583

Location - 2

99.2% 0%

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Sample 24.07901 68.58741 4,580 74 150 4,804

Location - 3

99.3% 0.04%

Using a similar approach as in CDM AR Tool 4 to assess the significance of pre-project mangrove vegetation,
on the basis of the results in Table A10.2 it is concluded that these areas are below 5%, i.e., de minimis.

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Appendix 12: Mangrove Canopy Cover Development

The project uses a default value for SOC accumulation in the ex-ante estimation of GHG removals. The
default value applied is conditional on the vegetation cover, where for a vegetation with 50% or more cover
the value van be applied without any reduction. For vegetation covers below 15% no default value can be
used. Between 15% and 50% cover, a linear interpolation can be applied.

Mangrove canopy cover can be hard to predict or to assess using remote sensing in the early years. This is
due to variable growth patterns and overlapping canopies. According to field observations, Avicennia
plantations can show a 50% or higher canopy cover after 5-7 years. Rhizophora plantations are quickly
colonised by Avicennia, and thus can show a similar rate of canopy development.

Figure A12.1. 3-year old Rhizophora Figure A12.2. 7-year old Rhizophora
plantation with natural regeneration of plantation with natural regeneration of
Avicennia. Avicennia.

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Appendix 13: Non-Permanence Risk Analysis

5.6 Internal Risk

Project Management

Risk Risk Factor and/or Mitigation Description Risk

Factor Rating

a) Species planted (where applicable) associated with more than 25% of the 0
stocks on which GHG credits have previously been issued are not native or
proven to be adapted to the same or similar agroecological zone(s) in which
the project is located.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: Species used in plantation programs until now or
intended to be used in future planting and replanting are all native and well
adapted to the local site and climatic conditions as they are species of the
same agroecological zones. These are neither non-native/exotic nor
invasive. The species planted in the project include Avicennia marina,
Rhizophora mucronate, Ceriops tagal, and Aegiceras corniculatum. These
are all native species of Indus Delta Region that have historically grown
naturally in the Project Area. See Section 2.1.14 and Section 5.1.1.
Project records show the planting of these native species. This record is
available and can be seen by the verification body.

b) Ongoing enforcement to prevent encroachment by outside actors is required 2

to protect more than 50% of stocks on which GHG credits have previously
been issued.
Score is 2
Justification and evidence: In the baseline scenario there were open range
grazing and lopping/cutting of green mangrove trees for fuelwood purposes.
Therefore, the baseline scenario is characterized among others by trampling
and browsing damages to any newly emerging natural seedlings/natural
regeneration by camels and other livestock. There was also excessive
mangrove propagule collection for stall feeding to livestock. In addition,
lopping of branches of mangroves and cutting of green mangrove trees for
fodder and fuelwood purposes was also common. See Section 2.2.1 of PD.
In the Project scenario and during the project implementation period,
protection through Mangrove Stewardship Agreements (MSAs) and law
enforcement activities will continue to seek to prevent illegal exploitation of

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the Project Area for fuelwood cutting and illegal grazing of livestock as well
as poaching and killing of wildlife species. See Section 2.1.17.
Carbon funds will be used in the future to substantially increase the
manpower used to enforce these measures.

c) The management team does not include individuals with significant 0

experience in all skills necessary to successfully undertake all project
activities (i.e., any area of required experience is not covered by at least one
individual with at least 5 years’ experience in the area).
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: Successful implementation of a Blue Carbon
Project requires a suite of key technical and managerial skills. DBC-2 Project
Management Team has the requisite technical and managerial skills and
specific experience of more than 5 years to successfully implement all
project activities, including in relation to DBC-1. These knowledge and skills
include an understanding of the science and art of wetland ecosystem
restoration, coastal and marine biodiversity and high conservation values
(HCVs) areas conservation, community development, remote sensing and
geographic information systems, forest carbon monitoring, measurement,
reporting and verification (MRV), GHG accounting, conduct of Social and
Biodiversity Impact Assessment (SBIA) workshops, socio-economic studies,
biodiversity surveys, and report writing. See Section 2.4.1, Section 2.4.2,
and Section 2.4.3.
As evidence, the CVs of the team members which show their knowledge,
expertise, and specific experience in these areas are available and can be
reviewed by the validation and verification body.

d) The management team does not maintain a presence in the country or is 0

located more than a day of travel from the project site, considering all
parcels or polygons in the Project Area.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The core team is based in the project
headquarters in Karachi and in field offices in Shah Bandar and Jati and
maintains a presence throughout the Project Zone. See Section 2.3.4 and
Section 2.4.3.

e) Mitigation: The management team includes individuals with significant -2

experience in AFOLU project design and implementation, carbon accounting,
and reporting (e.g., individuals who have successfully managed projects
through validation, verification, and issuance of GHG credits) under the VCS
Program or other approved GHG programs.
Score is -2

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Justification and evidence: There are sufficient capacities at the

organization level with the project partners for overall restoration program
management. The project team has the required capacities around various
aspects of project design and implementation, carbon accounting, and
reporting (i.e., individuals who have more than 8 years of experience and
have successfully managed projects through validation and verification and
issuance of carbon credits) under the VCS Program or other approved GHG
programs as well as CCB Standard. Qualified and experienced staff is
available with the project in all fields such as mangroves and wetlands
restoration, GHG accounting, PD development, preparation of monitoring
reports, liaison and interaction with VVB, stakeholders’ relations
management, financial management, human resource management, GIS
and remote sensing, biodiversity conservation, community development,
communications management, business analytics, etc.
Evidence: See item c) above. For DBC-1, the project partners’ team
members were involved with the preparation of the PD document containing
ex-ante GHG estimation, with VERRA and the validation body at the time of
PD validation, and in the preparation of the first monitoring report, its
verification by the verification body and VERRA, issuance of carbon credits
by VERRA, answering ESG and due diligence related questions by investors
and carbon credits buyers.
CVs of the relevant staff members are available for the audit team to check
and verify.

f) Mitigation: Adaptive management plan in place. -2

Justification and evidence: Project activities are monitored and evaluated
regularly according to the project’s monitoring plans and SOPs concerning
these various activities. The information becoming available as a result of
these monitoring and evaluation activities and continued consultations with
stakeholders will be fed into future actions and decision-making to enable
adaptive management of the project and its interventions. See Section
2.3.11.

Total Project Management (PM) [as applicable, (a + b + c + d + e + f)] -2

Total may be less than zero.

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Financial Viability

Risk Risk Factor and/or Mitigation Description Risk

Factor Rating

a) Project cash flow breakeven point is greater than 10 years from the current 0
risk assessment.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The project cash flow breakeven point is not
greater than 10 years from the current risk assessment.
Evidence: The project has started in 2023. Its first VCUs will be issued in the
year 2026-27. The existing cash flow available with the project partners and
the issuance of carbon credits in the future will meet the cash flow
breakeven point. Hence, the project cash flow breakeven point is less than
10 years.

b) Project cash flow breakeven point is greater than 7 and up to 10 years from 0
the current risk assessment.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The project cash flow breakeven point is less
than 7 years and not greater than 7 years. The project’s start year is 2023.
VCUs to the project are expected to be issued in 2027. The sale of issued
VCUs in 2027 will meet the threshold for meeting the breakeven point.
Thus, the project cash flow breakeven point under the current risk
assessment is less than 7 years.

c) Project cash flow breakeven point greater than 4 and up to 7 years from the 1
current risk assessment.
Score is 1
Justification and evidence: As explained earlier the project cash flow
breakeven point will be reached between 6-7 years due to the issuance and
sale of VCUs in 2027 which will enable the project to meet the breakeven
point threshold.

d) Project cash flow breakeven point is less than 4 years from the current risk 1
assessment.
Score is 1
Justification and evidence: Financial analysis prepared and available
separately to show the project breakeven point period is not less than 4
years from the current risk assessment.

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This financial analysis can be shown to the audit team if it so wishes.

e) Project has secured less than 15% of funding needed to cover the total cash 0
out before the project reaches breakeven.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The project has secured 80% or more of the
funding needed to cover the total cash outflow before the project reaches
breakeven.
Financial analysis of the project available separately provides evidence to
support this. The audit team can see this financial analysis.

f) Project has secured 15% to less than 40% of funding needed to cover the 0
total cash out required before the project reaches breakeven.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The project has secured 80% or more of the
funding needed to cover the total cash outflow before the project reaches
breakeven.
Financial analysis of the project available separately provides evidence to
support this. The audit team can see this financial analysis.

g) Project has secured 40% to less than 80% of the funding needed to cover 0
the total cash out required before the project reaches breakeven
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The project has secured 80% or more funding
needed to cover the total cash outflow before the project reaches
breakeven.
Financial analysis of the project available separately provides evidence to
support this. The audit team can see this financial analysis.

h) Project has secured 80% or more of the funding needed to cover the total 0
cash out before the project reaches breakeven.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The project has secured 80% or more of the
funding needed to cover the total cash outflow before the project reaches
breakeven.
Financial analysis of the project available separately provides evidence to
support this. The audit team can see this financial analysis.

i) Mitigation: Project has available as callable financial resources at least 50% -2

of total cash out before the project reaches breakeven.

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Score is -2
Justification and evidence: Funding and finance-related risks such as non-
availability of funds for project implementation, perceived risks, high start-
up costs, and transaction costs are minimal. So are risks associated with
low prices for carbon and other ecosystem services; low economic returns
and insufficient revenues from ecosystem services to pay for opportunity
costs, transactions costs, and implementation costs visa-a-vis high risks;
inflation and rising costs for project activities implementation; and extreme
fluctuations in country currency exchange rates.
The project is financially viable as the project benefits exceed the project
costs. The various measures for assessing financial viability such as the Net
Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) all
show that it is a financially viable project.
Evidence: Financial analysis provided separately

Total Financial Viability (FV) [as applicable, ((a, b, c or d) + (e, f, g or h) + i)] 0

Total may not be less than zero.

Opportunity Cost

Risk Risk Factor and/or Mitigation Description Risk

Factor Rating

a) NPV from the most profitable alternative land use activity is expected to be 0
at least 100% more than that associated with project activities; or where
baseline activities are subsistence-driven, net positive community impacts
are not demonstrated.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: Project activities are implemented on intertidal
lands that are not suitable for subsistence or commercial agriculture or
other commercial activities. These are degraded and de-vegetated
mangrove lands that are intertidal and too saline for practicing any type of
agriculture-related activity, both subsistence and commercial agriculture.
Also, these lands are too soft and have locational disadvantages in terms of
vulnerability to tidal action, inaccessibility, and excessive cost for conducting
any other business and commercial activities. Eco-tourism-related activities
are also not possible on these lands. Therefore, the only possible option is to
continue as they are as they have been historically lying as wastelands. The
NPV from the most profitable alternative land use activity is thus zero. As
such these lands do not have a profitable land-use activity to compare to
their value under a mangrove restoration project.

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The potential current land use or existing activities can at the utmost be
subsistence-driven aquaculture. The project activities as compared to these
subsistence-driven aquaculture activities have much higher net positive
community impacts from the proposed project. Subsistence-driven activities
involve basic survival needs. As opposed to these, the project activities are
contributing positively to the community's well-being and development,
which among others include increased and diversified sources of income, a
reduction in the cost of living through increased access to different civic
facilities, protection of communities and their lands from floods and storm
water surges, increase in fisheries/crabs and shrimps production due to the
provision of spawning habitat by mangrove forests, and increase in cultural
and recreational benefits for the local communities.
Evidence of this is that these lands have been lying unutilized historically
and are still lying unutilized because of the above-mentioned non-suitability
and non-competitiveness due to locational disadvantages for the conduct of
different business activities or subsistence-driven aquaculture activities
under the existing land-use which is also the baseline scenario.

b) NPV from the most profitable alternative land use activity is expected to be 0
between 50% and up to 100% more than from project activities.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: As explained above, a two-fold evaluation
process has been done:
• Financial Viability: Assessment of the NPV from the most profitable
alternative land use activity and its comparison with the project
activity. Since the land in question is not suitable for the
implementation of any profitable activity; hence its NPV for such
activities is zero. Cash flow analysis and financial projections under
the project scenario have been done separately and are positive.
Therefore, based on this type of analysis, the project scenario fares
better than the alternative land-use scenario.
• Community Impact: Community impact-related evaluation has also
been done under a situation where baseline activities are
subsistence-driven aquaculture. This analysis demonstrates that
there are net positive community impacts under the project
considering the social and economic benefits of the project for the
community.
This analysis has involved both financial and qualitative assessments for
making informed decisions about the feasibility and desirability of the
project in comparison to alternative land use activities. Under both types of
analyses, the project scenario outcompetes the existing scenario/baseline
scenario.

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c) NPV from the most profitable alternative land use activity is expected to be 0
between 20% and up to 50% more than from project activities.
The score is 0
Justification and evidence: Given that alternative land use scenarios such as
agriculture and other commercial activities are not possible on the lands in
question, it suggests a limitation or constraint in diversifying land use. In
such a context, the evaluation focus is more on the inherent characteristics
and constraints of the land rather than a direct comparison with alternative
land use scenarios.
1. NPV Comparison:
Given the restriction on alternative land use scenarios, the NPV comparison
has also considered the unique attributes of the project activities in
question. The financial viability of the project activities within the constraints
of the land has also been done while doing this financial analysis of the
project. The NPV of the project activities is acceptable and meets the
necessary financial criteria independently, as direct comparisons with
alternative land uses are not applicable in our case.
2. Community Impact Assessment:
Since financial viability assessment of alternative land use scenarios is not
possible, the focus of the analysis has been on community impact to the
specific benefits that the proposed project can bring within the existing
constraints.
This analysis has considered the positive social and economic impacts that
the project can have on the community, given the limited possibilities for
alternative land uses. This may involve job creation, infrastructure
development, or other community improvements.
In summary, the evaluation has been tailored to the unique circumstances
where alternative land use scenarios are not viable. The emphasis in such a
situation has been on assessing the project's standalone financial viability
and the positive impacts it can have on the community within the given
constraints. The absence of alternative options has shifted the evaluation
criteria to the more intrinsic qualities and benefits associated with the
proposed project on the Project Area lands.

d) NPV from the most profitable alternative land use activity is expected to be 0
between 20% more than and up to 20% less than from project activities; or
where baseline activities are subsistence-driven, net positive community
impacts are demonstrated.
The score is 0

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Justification and evidence: For scenario comparison of this mangrove

restoration project in the inter-tidal area, it is crucial to acknowledge the
unique attributes and constraints associated with the existing land. The
inter-tidal nature of the area restricts traditional land use activities such as
agriculture or commercial ventures. Consequently, the comparison will
center on the distinctive merits and feasibility of the mangrove restoration
project within this specific context.
1. Environmental Sustainability and Biodiversity Enhancement:
The proposed mangrove restoration project contributes significantly to
environmental sustainability by rehabilitating a vital inter-tidal ecosystem.
Mangroves act as natural buffers against coastal erosion, protect against
storm surges, and provide crucial habitat for diverse marine life.
2. Ecosystem Services and Climate Resilience:
Mangroves offer a range of ecosystem services, including carbon
sequestration, water filtration, and acting as a nursery for various marine
species. The restoration project aligns with climate resilience goals,
enhancing the overall adaptability of the region to changing environmental
conditions.
3. Community Engagement and Livelihood Opportunities:
In the absence of viable alternatives like agriculture or commercial activities,
the mangrove restoration project becomes a focal point for community
engagement. Local residents are actively involved in planting and
maintaining mangroves, providing alternative sources of income and
livelihoods earning as well as fostering a sense of ownership and pride.
4. Educational and Recreational Value:
Beyond its ecological benefits, the mangrove restoration project can serve
as an educational resource for schools and communities. Additionally, the
area can become a recreational space, promoting eco-tourism and providing
leisure opportunities for residents once mangrove landscape in the area is
restored.
5. Mitigation of Land Use Conflicts:
Given the limitations of the inter-tidal area for conventional land uses, the
mangrove restoration project mitigates potential conflicts over land
utilization. It leverages the unique characteristics of the site to create a
valuable ecological asset that aligns with broader environmental and social
goals.
In conclusion, the mangrove restoration project emerges as a sustainable
and community-centric initiative, tailored to the specific conditions of the
inter-tidal area. Its intrinsic value lies not only in ecological rehabilitation but

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also in fostering community resilience and providing educational and

recreational benefits.

e) NPV from project activities is expected to be between 20% and up to 50% 0

more profitable than the most profitable alternative land use activity.
The score is 0
Justification and evidence: NPV from project activities is expected to be at
least 50% more profitable than the most profitable land use activity instead
of between 20% and 50%. This is explained in detail where this assessment
has been done.

f) NPV from project activities is expected to be at least 50% more profitable -4

than the most profitable alternative land use activity.
The score is -4
Justification and evidence: Project activities are implemented on lands
which have no value either at present or in the foreseeable future for
agricultural, commercial or industrial purposes. Hence, there is no
opportunity cost involved. As opposed to this financial and positive
community impacts benefits of project are significant.
The non-suitability of the land for conventional activities positions the
mangrove restoration project as a sustainable and community-centric
initiative with wide-ranging positive financial and community impacts. The
financial impact is characterized by profitability, cost-effectiveness, and
strategic use of land, while the net positive community impact centers
around empowerment, job creation, educational opportunities, and
enhanced resilience as explained below.
Financial Impact:
1. Cost-Effective Restoration:
The financial impact of the mangrove restoration project is positively
influenced by the minimal opportunity cost associated with the land. Since
the area is not suitable for agriculture or commercial activities, there is
minimal direct financial loss in terms of foregone revenue.
2. Cost Savings on Future Land Expectation Value:
The project benefits from cost savings in terms of future land expectation
value. Lands that are unsuitable for conventional use often come at a lower
land expectation value, contributing to overall cost-effectiveness in project
implementation.
3. Long-Term Cost Avoidance:
Investing in mangrove restoration on these lands is a strategic financial
decision. The long-term benefits, such as coastal protection, reduced

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maintenance costs, and increased resilience to climate change, outweigh

the minimal opportunity cost associated with the land.
4. Potential for Carbon Revenue Earning:
The unique ecological value of mangrove restoration as a carbon removal
project is expected to earn substantial carbon revenue from the sale of
verified carbon units in the voluntary carbon market. This carbon revenue
stream ensures the project's economic viability.
Community Impact:
1. Community Empowerment:
The mangrove restoration project presents an opportunity for community
involvement and empowerment. Residents can actively participate in
planting and maintaining mangroves, thereby providing them with diversified
and increased sources of livelihoods and income earning as well as
fostering a sense of ownership and connection to the land.
2. Job Creation and Skill Development:
The project contributes to local economies by creating jobs related to
mangrove restoration activities. These jobs include planting, monitoring, and
maintenance, providing community members with valuable skills and
employment opportunities.
3. Educational and Recreational Opportunities:
The restored mangrove area can serve as an educational resource for local
schools and communities. It offers a unique opportunity for environmental
education and awareness. Additionally, the site can become a future
recreational space, attracting eco-tourism and providing leisure
opportunities for residents once this degraded landscape is restored
through mangrove planting.
4. Improved Livelihoods:
While the land may not be suitable for traditional economic activities, the
project enhances overall community well-being by improving environmental
conditions, supporting biodiversity, and contributing to a healthier
ecosystem. This indirectly improves the quality of life for residents.
5. Climate Resilience and Community Security:
The mangrove restoration project contributes to community resilience by
providing natural buffers against coastal erosion and storm surges. This
helps safeguard the community's infrastructure and enhances overall
security in the face of environmental challenges.

g) Mitigation: Project proponent is a non-profit organization. 0

Not applicable

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Justification and evidence: Project entities Caelum Environmental Solutions

and Pollination are not non-profit organizations. See Section 2.1.1.

h) Mitigation: Project is protected by a legally binding commitment to continue -2

management practices that protect the credited carbon stocks over the
length of the project crediting period.
The score is -2
Justification: DBC-2 is developed and managed by the Government of Sindh,
Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination. The three project entities
have entered into public-private partnership arrangements through a 60-
year legally binding agreement, renewable for up to 100 years for the
protection, conservation, and ecosystem restoration of mangrove wetlands
in the Sindh Indus Delta area. This legally binding commitment and contract
ensures the continuation of management practices that protect credited
carbon stocks during the project’s 60-year credit generation period as well
as beyond that period up to 100 years. Through this legally binding contract
and by collaborating with the project-area communities and partner
organizations, the Forest Department of Government of Sindh, Caelum
Environmental Solutions and Pollination take full and legal responsibility for
managing, financing, and implementing project activities for the duration of
the project and beyond.
Evidence: PPP will be provided to VVB upon request.

i) Mitigation: Project is protected by a legally binding commitment to continue -4

management practices that protect the credited carbon stocks over at least
100 years.
The score is -4
Justification and evidence: The legally binding commitment between Caelum
Environmental Solutions, Pollination and Government of Sindh, the three
project partners, to uphold management practices for the protection of
credited carbon stocks over a minimum of 100 years plays a pivotal role in
mitigating risks associated with the AFOLU sector within our mangrove
restoration project. This commitment acts as a robust safeguard, addressing
several critical aspects of risk mitigation.
Firstly, the extended time frame of 100 years provides a long-term horizon,
aligning with the natural lifecycle of mangrove ecosystems. This duration
allows for the establishment, growth, and maturity of mangrove forests,
ensuring sustained carbon sequestration. Additionally, it allows for adaptive
management strategies to be implemented over the project's lifecycle,
addressing emerging challenges and uncertainties associated with climate
change, biodiversity, and ecosystem dynamics.

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The legally binding nature of the commitment instills confidence in

stakeholders, including investors, local communities, and regulatory bodies.
This commitment signals a firm dedication to the project's environmental
goals, fostering trust and reducing the risk of abrupt changes in
management practices or premature discontinuation of carbon
sequestration efforts.
Furthermore, the commitment provides a regulatory framework for
monitoring and verification processes. Rigorous monitoring over the 100-
year period ensures that carbon stocks are accurately measured, reported,
and verified, minimizing the risk of miscalculations or inaccuracies. This
transparency not only supports the integrity of the project but also aids in
building credibility with carbon credit buyers and other stakeholders.
In conclusion, the legally binding commitment to uphold management
practices for a century serves as a cornerstone in the risk mitigation strategy
for our mangrove restoration project within the AFOLU sector. It offers a
comprehensive and enduring approach to address challenges, build trust,
and ensure the long-term success of the project in both environmental and
financial aspects.
Evidence: The contract between the project proponents is available. It can
be shown to the audit team, if so, wished by the team.

Total Opportunity Cost (OC) [as applicable, (a, b, c, d, e or f) + (g + h or i)] -10

Total may be less than 0.

Project Longevity

a) Without legal agreement or requirement to continue the management 0

practice.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The project has a legally binding agreement to
continue management practice.
Evidence: Project agreement between project entities. The agreement is
available and can be shown to the audit team if so, wished by the team.

b) With legal agreement or requirement to continue the management practice 0

Justification: The project does have a legally binding agreement that at
present covers a 60-years period but is extendable up to a 100-year period
from the project start date. The project longevity is thus up to 100 years.
Therefore, legal agreements or requirements to continue management
practice are in place.

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Evidence: See Section 2.1.21.

Total Project Longevity (PL) 0

May not be less than zero

Internal Risk

Total Internal Risk (PM + FV + OC + PL)

0
Total may not be less than zero.

5.7 External Risk

Land Tenure and Resource Access/Impacts

Risk Risk Factor and/or Mitigation Description Risk

Factor Rating

a) Ownership and resource access/use rights are held by same entity(s) 0

Score is 0
Justification and evidence: DBC-2 is developed and managed by the
Government of Sindh, Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination, who
have entered into public-private partnership arrangements through a 60-
year agreement that is extendable up to 100 years. All lands in the Project
Area are classified as Protected Forests and are state property. Therefore,
their ownership vests in the Government of Sindh. See Section 2.5.9.

b) Ownership and resource access/use rights are held by various entity(s) 2

(e.g., land is government owned, and the project proponent holds a lease or
concession).
Score is 2
Justification and evidence: The Government of Sindh is the legal owner of
the Project Area lands. Caelum Environmental Solutions and Pollination
through a legally binding contract with the Government of Sindh have rights
to the carbon credits generated under the project and these rights are held

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for the duration of the contract which is 60 years and extendable to 100
years.

c) In more than 5% of the Project Area, there exist disputes over land tenure or 0
ownership.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: All of the Project Area is owned by the
government of Sindh and there exist no disputes over land tenure or
ownership.

d) There exist disputes over access/use rights (or overlapping rights). 0

Score is 0
Justification and evidence: There do not exist any disputes over access/use
rights. There are also no overlapping rights. The Project Area land is owned
by the province of Sindh. Their title to the land is mentioned in revenue
records and there have been no disputes either in the past or at present
over access or use rights. Moreover, there have been no overlapping rights.

e) WRC projects unable to demonstrate that potential upstream and sea 0

impacts that could undermine issued credits in the next 10 years are
irrelevant or expected to be insignificant, or that there is a plan in place for
effectively mitigating such impacts.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: Water and sediment discharge to the delta were
altered in the mid-1950s due to dams constructed upstream, barrages and
their irrigation canals, artificial flood levees, sediment impoundment behind
upstream reservoirs, and inter-basin diversion. The present-day river and
delta conditions have now been existing for the past more than 7 decades.
Ever since then mangroves in the Indus delta area have developed
adaptation mechanisms to not only survive but also thrive in the face of
reduced fresh water and sediment supplies due to the effects of engineered
diversions.
Moreover, to avoid any adverse consequences for the delta area and
keeping in view the huge economic, environmental and social importance of
the Indus deltaic system, the federal government and all the provincial
governments have agreed on Indus Water Accord 1991 under which 10
million acre-feet of water is annually released into the delta. Studies have
shown that the release of this amount of water is enough to keep and
sustain the environmental integrity of the delta as well as the wetland
ecosystems found therein.
Also, the project factors potential upstream and sea level rise impacts as
well as climate resilience into its approaches. It has tailored climate
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resilience into all of its restoration works from the design stage to
implementation and long-term maintenance and sustainability of its
planted/restored areas to minimize and manage risks arising from past
damming and diversion of fresh water and sediment supplies as well as
expected sea level rise due to climate change. It makes use of species
combinations and planting and planted areas maintenance strategies that
are best adapted to the present-day deltaic conditions.
As a result, the potential upstream and sea impacts that could undermine
issued credits in the next 10 years are either irrelevant or are expected to
be insignificant due to the fact the required mitigative actions are in place.
Section 3.1.3.2.2 of PD.
Satellite imageries of 1972, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2002,2013, 2018, 2022,
and 2023 are used in forecasting future shoreline changes.

Year Satellite Imagery

1972 LM01_L1TP_163043_19721015_20200909_02_T2

1986 LM05_L1TP_151043_19860927_20200831_02_T2

1992 LT05_L2SP_151043_19921130_20200914_02_T1

1998 LT05_L1TP_151043_19981115_20200908_02_T1

2002 LE07_L2SP_151043_20021102_20200916_02_T1

2013 LC08_L2SP_151043_20131023_20200912_02_T1

2018 LC08_L2SP_151043_20231019_20231103_02_T1

2022 LC09_L2SP_151043_20221125_20230320_02_T1

2023 LC08_L2SP_151043_20181021_20200830_02_T1

The Kalman filter combines observed shoreline positions with model-

derived estimates to forecast future shoreline positions. This approach, as
outlined by Long and Plant (2012), initializes with parameters such as the
linear regression rate, EPR, and net shoreline movement. It then estimates
shoreline position and rate at regular intervals while providing an estimate
of positional uncertainty. Once the future shorelines are forecasted,
polygons representing accretion and erosion have been generated.
See Section 3.3.3.5.

f) Mitigation: Project Area is protected by legally binding commitment (e.g., a -2

conservation easement or protected area) to continue management

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practices that protect carbon stocks over the length of the project crediting
period.
Justification: Legally binding commitments to continue management
practices that protect the credited carbon stocks over the length of the
project crediting period are in place.
Evidence: See Section 2.1.19 of PD.

g) Mitigation: Where disputes over land tenure, ownership or access/use 0

rights exist, documented evidence is provided that projects have
implemented activities to resolve the disputes or clarify overlapping claims.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: The Project Area is free of land grabbing,
territorial displacement, or deprivation from access to resources. There
have been only a few minor disputes amongst the communities of various
villages or within communities of a village over land, territory or resources in
the Project Zone during the last 30 years. Most of their disputes have been
about migrant herders bringing camels for grazing into the delta area during
the flood season.
All such disputes are resolved through local mediation measures by the
communities themselves and there is no resort to government or other
official channels for dispute resolution. Also, the likelihood of disputes on
land, territories and resources to occur in the future is low. Therefore, there
is no potential for the project to prejudice any decision or outcome of a
dispute through its activities. Using a precautionary approach, the project
has a protocol for disputes resolution at the community level.
Evidence: See Section 2.5.6, Section 2.5.9, and Section 2.5.11.

Total Land Tenure (LT) [as applicable, ((a or b) + c + d + e + f + g)] 0

Total may not be less than zero.

Community Engagement

Risk Risk Factor and/or Mitigation Description Risk

Factor Rating

a) Less than 50 percent of households living within the Project Area who are 0
reliant on the Project Area have been consulted.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: Social and Biodiversity Impact Assessment
(SBIA) workshops were held in strategic locations in the Project Zone at the
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time of obtaining Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) and collection of
baseline socio-economic data with key representatives of community
groups, which represented more than 50 percent of households living
within the Project Area and who are reliant on the Project Area and also
more than 20 percent of households living within 20 km of the project
boundary outside the Project Area and who are reliant on the project, have
been consulted. Participants consisted of representatives from all
stakeholder groups including local administration, village elders, local
community leaders, indigenous women, and youth representatives. See
Section 2.3.5 and Appendix 3.
In total for the FPIC process and other project-related activities, more than
30 meetings have been held since 2021 which have been attended by
hundreds of community members from the Project Zone. See Section
2.1.15 and Appendix 3.

b) Less than 20 percent of households living within 20 km of the project 0

boundary outside the Project Area, and who are reliant on the Project Area,
have been consulted.
Score is 0
Justification and evidence: As explained in item (a) above, more than 20
percent of households living within 20 km of the project boundary outside
the Project Area and who are reliant on the project, have been consulted.
Participants consisted of representatives from all stakeholder groups
including local administration, village elders, local community leaders,
indigenous women, and youth representatives.

c) Mitigation: The project generates net positive impacts on the social and -5
economic well-being of the local communities who derive livelihoods from
the Project Area.
Justification: The project is providing community benefits to the entire
population (more than 23,000 people) of the Project Zone. These
community benefits are listed in various sections of this PD.
Evidence: See Section 2.1.17, Section 4.2.1, and Section 4.2.3.

Total Community Engagement (CE) [where applicable, (a + b + c)] -5

Total may be less than zero.

Political Risk

Risk Risk Factor and/or Mitigation Description Risk

Factor Rating

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a) Governance score of less than -0.79 0

Not Applicable
Justification and evidence: See Item d) below.

b) Governance score of -0.79 to less than -0.32. 0

Not applicable
Justification and evidence: See item d) below.

c) Governance score of -0.32 to less than 0.19. 0

Not applicable
Justification and evidence: See item d) below.

d) Governance score of 0.19 to less than 0.82. 0.53

Justification: Based on the country's calculated governance score using risk
tool, the resulting risk tool score is 0.53.
Evidence: The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2020 Update. The
Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) are a research dataset
summarising the views on the quality of governance provided by a large
number of enterprise, citizen and expert survey respondents in industrial
and developing countries. These data are gathered from a number of survey
institutes, think tanks, non-governmental organisations, international
organisations, and private sector firms. The six aggregate indicators are
based on over 30 underlying data sources reporting the perceptions of
governance of a large number of survey respondents and expert
assessments worldwide. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/

e) Governance score of 0.82 or higher. 0

Not applicable
Justification and evidence: See item d) above.

f) Mitigation: Country is implementing REDD+ Readiness or other activities. -2

Justification: The country has received REDD+ Readiness Funding from the
FCPF and is implementing REDD+ Readiness as well as a Social and
Environmental Safeguards System.
Evidence: Pakistan is in the list of countries that has received FCPF funding
as shown on the website of FCPF in the Asia-Pacific Group. Website of
Pakistan National REDD+ Office http//www.redd-pakistan.org has various
documents related to various FCPF and Safeguards system related
documents.

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Total Political (PC) [as applicable ((a, b, c, d or e) + f)] 0

Total may not be less than zero.

External Risk

Total External Risk (LT + CE + PC)

0
Total may not be less than zero.

5.8 Natural Risk

Natural Risk-Fire (F)

Significance Risk is insignificant or does not apply to Project Area

Justification and evidence: The Indus Delta region is not susceptible to
severe natural destructive events. The area is subject to very little
geological activity and as a native ecosystem, the risks from disease and
pests are minimal. The risk of fire is negligible due to regular inundation
and high humidity under the forest canopy and in the whole of the
intertidal zone. Also, the government has standing orders concerning
forest fire prevention, suppression and reporting. In the event of a forest
fire, it has to be reported on an immediate basis and a fire damage report
prepared. This fire damage report among others needs to have details
concerning the date and time the fire occurred, how it occurred, the
specific location of the fire, the extent/area affected, and damages
caused by the fire. No such fire damage incidents in the Indus Delta
mangrove forests have been reported over the past more than two
decades and during this monitoring period. See Section 2.1.20.

Likelihood 0

Score (LS) 0

Mitigation No mitigative actions are required as there is no likelihood of fire

incidences happening.

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Natural Risk-Pest and Disease outbreaks (PD)

Significance Risk is insignificant or does not apply to the Project Area

Justification and evidence: There have been no pest and disease
incidences in mangrove forests in the Indus Delta Area in the past five
decades. In the future too and over the project’s lifetime, no pest and
disease incidences are expected to happen.

Likelihood 0

Score (LS) 0

Mitigation No mitigative actions are needed as there is very little or no likelihood of

pest and disease outbreaks in the Project Area as explained above.

Natural Risk-Extreme Weather (W)

Significance Insignificant (less than 5% loss of carbon stocks) or transient (full recovery
of lost carbon stocks expected within 10 years of any event)
Evidence: Figure 15 in Section 3.1.3.2.2. Out of the total planted area of
193, 495 hectares planted during the period from 2023 to 2030, less
than .5% of hectares have been affected by extreme weather events.

Likelihood Less than every 10 years

Score (LS) 2

Mitigation 1.0
Justification: Coastal wetlands areas prone to loss have been identified
using the models given in Appendices 6 and 7 in the PD. These erosion
prone areas will not be planted in future planting cohorts so as to
minimize the loss resulting from extreme weather events.

Natural Risk-Geological (G)

Significance Risk is insignificant or does not apply to the Project Area.

Justification and evidence: There have been no earthquakes, tsunamis, or
volcanic eruptions in the Project Area in the past few decades as the area
is not prone to geological risks. This part of Pakistan is categorized to be
area with low vulnerability to disruptive geological activities as per a

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vulnerability assessment done by the National Disaster Management

Authority of Pakistan.

Likelihood 0

Score (LS) 0

Mitigation Not needed as there is no risk of geological hazards.

Natural Risk-Other Natural (ON)

Significance This risk category is not significant as it is not applicable as explained

below.
Justification and evidence: There are no other natural risks than the ones
mentioned above (fire, pest and disease, extreme weather events, and
geological natural risks). Therefore, this risk category is not applicable.

Likelihood 0

Score (LS) 0

Mitigation Not needed as the risk category is not applicable.

Score for each natural risk applicable to the project

(Determined by (LS × M)

Fire (F) 0

Pest and Disease Outbreaks (PD) 0

Extreme Weather (W) 2

Geological Risk (G) 0

Other natural risk (ON) 0

Total Natural Risk (as applicable, F + PD + W + G + ON) 2

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5.9 Overall Non-Permanence Risk Rating and Buffer Determination

Risk Category Rating

Internal Risk 0

External Risk 0

Natural Risk 2

Overall Risk Rating (a + b + c) 2

Total net emission reduction/carbon removals during the project life are 120,831,849 tCO2e.
The cumulative buffer withholding during the project life is 10% or 12,083,185 tCO2e. The
resulting net VCUs are 108,748,664 tCO2e. Details are provided in Table 23 in Section 3.2.4.
An extract of table 23 is reproduced below:

Table 23: NERRWE, buffer withholding, and Net VCUs from 14 August 2023 to 13 August 2083

Year/Vintage NERRWE (tCO2e) Buffer withholding @ 10 % Net VCUs (tCO2e)

Period (tCO2e)

14 August
2023 to 13
August 2083 120,829,435 12,082,943 108,746,491

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Appendix 14: Mangrove Growth Curve for Ex-Ante Calculations

Ex-ante estimates of carbon sequestration in mangrove plantations are based on the annual areas of tree
planting and a general growth model for mangrove forest with Avicennia and Rhizophora. Having separate
growth models for these two species has no foundation in the situation in the plantations, as often a mixture
is planted and Avicennia often quickly invades Rhizophora stands.

On the basis of a chronosequence of mangrove plantations in the vicinity of the Project Area, a general
growth curve was developed. Due to the lack of established mangrove forests int the DBC2 Project Area,
calculations were taken from directly neighbouring plots. Plot coordinates are shown in Figure A14.1. The
ages of 16 sampled plantations ranged from a 1-5 year class to over 30 years. Plantations established prior
to the project start date originate from a previous planting programme by the Sindh Forest Department,
IUCN-Pakistan and WWF-Pakistan. The management and protection of these plantations outside the Project
Area varies considerably, as do carbon stocks as a consequence. Therefore, plot selection outside the
Project Area was based on a visual observation of (lack of) disturbance.

Figure A14.1. Map with coordinates of the biomass chronosequence plots.

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Figure A14.2. Map with coordinates of the soil chronosequence plots.

Note that the soil sample points depicted in Figure A14.2 were used for the tentative assessment of a SOC
accumulation rate following mangrove reforestation, see Sections 3.2.2.5.1.2 and 3.3.3.4.

The resulting mangrove biomass growth model is shown in Figure A14.3. The curve was manually fitted
using the following equation, modelling an S-shaped curve108:
1
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝐶 = 𝐶𝑚𝑎𝑥((1 − 𝑒𝑥𝑝(−𝑏𝑡))𝑐

Where:

TotalC Carbon stored in aboveground and belowground mangrove biomass (t C ha -1)

Similar to nonlinear mathematical models such as Weibull and Richard’s models, see Fekedulegn et al
108

1999: Parameter estimation of nonlinear growth models in forestry, Silva Fennica, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 327-
336

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Cmax Asymptotic value of the curve (t C ha-1)

b Controls the maximum growth rate

c Controls the form of the tail

Table A14.1. Parameters of the

mangrove biomass growth model.

Parameter Value

Cmax 200 t C ha-1

B 0.1

C 0.45

The asymptotic value of 200 t C ha-1 was roughly based on the stock in the oldest plantation measured,
suggesting that there is at least this potential. IPCC109 default values for aboveground biomass in
mangroves in tropical wet and tropical dry environments are 192 and 92 t d.m. ha -1, respectively (Table 4.3
IPCC). Using IPCC default values for R/S ratios (Table 4.5 IPCC) and carbon fraction (Table 4.2 IPCC), these
biomass values translate to carbon stocks of 129 and 54 t C ha -1. These values are below the stocks seen
in older plantations in the Indus Delta, but the range provided for tropical wet is 8.7–384 t d.m. ha-1, or
5.1–223 t C ha-1. While the Indus Delta region has a relatively dry climate, the growth conditions for
mangroves are seen to mimic tropical wet conditions more closely110.

Parameters b and c were manually fitted to obtain minimal residuals.

109
2013 Supplement to the 2006 Guidelines: Wetlands
110
There are a number of abiotic and biotic factors affecting mangrove seedling and over-all mangrove
establishment, survival and growth rate. These factors, among many others, include salinity and nutrient
availability. Being usually the main reason behind abiotic stress, high and low salinity generally limits
mangrove growth. In mangroves, growth rate as a function of salinity displays a peculiar pattern; it is
maximum when salinity levels are intermediate but gets substantially reduced in both fresh water as well
as more saline conditions. In the Indus Delta, salinity and nutrient availability vary across the intertidal
zone, generating a continuum of conditions for survival and growth rate. These factors are also different
compared to neighbouring regions, such as Oman, Iran and UAE. The neighbouring regions have a
characteristic marine environment, opposed to the Indus Delta’s mix of fluvic and marine conditions.
Salinity levels and nutrient availability are comparatively better in the Indus Delta area due to the inflow of
fresh water and sediments.

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The model gives a relatively modest carbon sequestration rate in the first decade (19 t C ha -1 after 5 years
and 64 t C ha-1 after 10 years), compared to the default linear increase suggested by the IPCC for tropical
wet conditions (9.9 t d.m. ha-1 y-1, corresponding with 33 t C ha-1 after 5 years and 67 t C ha-1 after 10
years).

Figure A14.3. General growth model for mangrove plantations in the Indus Delta.

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Appendix 15: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Indus Delta

Table A15.1. Categorisation of vulnerability levels.

Index value scale Exposure/ Sensitivity/ Adaptive capacity/ Cumulative

Vulnerability Vulnerability Vulnerability Vulnerability
Index (CVI)

0.00≤CVI≤0.30 Low/Low Low/Low Low/High Low

0.31≤CVI≤0.50 Medium/Medium Medium/Medium Medium/High Medium

0.51≤CVI≤0.70 High/High High/High High/Medium High

0.71≤CVI≤1.00 Very high/Very high Very high/Very high Very high/Low Very high

Source: Salik, K.M., S. Jahangir, W.Z. Zahdi and S.H. Hasson. 2015. Climate change vulnerability and
adaptation options for the coastal communities of Pakistan. Ocean and Coastal Management 112 (2015)
61-73.

Table A15.2. Sub-indices of CVI assessment, their indicators, related variables and their computed
values. Based on structured interview of 60 respondents in the Keti Bandar of Indus Delta conducted
during April 2013.

Sub-indices and Variable Variable description Index Index for Index for
their indicators over-all agriculture fisheries

Exposure (E) 0.521 0.521 0.521

Air temperature E1 Monthly variability of temperatures 0.677 0.677 0.677

during 1951-2010

E2 Monthly average diurnal 0.549 0.549 0.549

temperature range

E5 Frequency of extreme hot months 0.410 0.410 0.410

(above 30 0C)

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E6 Frequency of extreme cold months

(below -10 0C)

Precipitation (P) E7 No. of extreme dry days: spring (P 0.555 0.555 0.555
< 5 mm) summer (P = 0 mm)

E3 Monthly variability of total 0.394 0.394 0.394

precipitation

Sea surface E4 Monthly variability of sea surface 0.542 0.542 0.542

temperature temp. during 1951-2010

Sensitivity (S) 0.652 0.638 0.669

Mangrove S1 Sensitivity of mangroves in Keti 0.808 0.845 0.769

forests Bandar

S2 Accessibility to mangroves 0.371 0.269 0.444

S3 Mangroves used per month as fuel 0.024 0.001 0.050

Water and S4 Share of households relying on 0.908 0.787 0.758

sanitation unprotected water sources

S5 Population deprived of sanitation 0.967 0.938 1.000

facility

Fresh water S6 Change in freshwater flows 0.815 0.742 0.913

flows
S7 Effect of unavailability of fresh 0.804 0.935 -
water on agriculture

S8 Effect of unavailability of 0.848 - 1.000

freshwater on fish

S9 Frequency of sea intrusion or 0.649 0.610 0.692

inundation

Climatic S10 Frequency of natural climatic 0.959 0.924 1.000

disasters disasters

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S11 Intensity of natural climatic 0.881 0.903 0.857

disasters

S12 Estimated per capita economic 0.062 0.066 0.058

costs of these disasters

S13 Percentage of population 0.817 0.781 0.857

financially aided by various
agencies

Lack of adaptive 0.564 0.581 0.546

capacity (1-A)

Consumption A1 Household consumption per capita 0.081 0.057 0.105

patterns

Income A2 Herfindahl index of income 0.141 0.161 0.122

diversification diversification (higher value, more
diversification)

Dependency A3 Ratio of total number of people 0.214 0.236 0.189

ratio and number of people earning in a
family

Education level A4 People educated above secondary 0.017 0.031 0.000

level

A5 Percentage share of literate people 0.195 0.307 0.067

Infrastructure A6 Access to basic services 0.196 0.234 0.152

Assets A7 Nature of dwellings 0.850 0.875 0.821

A8 Number of the assets owned by 0.650 0.453 0.875

the community members

Family networks A9 Level of cooperation within the 0.983 0.969 1.000

family network within the village

A10 Level of cooperation within the 0.883 0.844 0.929

family network outside the village

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Migrations A11 Extent of migration due to natural 0.800 0.844 0.750

disasters

A12 Extent of migration because of 0.783 0.719 0.857

material reasons

CVI 0.580 0.579 0.580

Source: Salik, K.M., S. Jahangir, W.Z. Zahdi and S.H. Hasson. 2015. Climate change vulnerability and
adaptation options for the coastal communities of Pakistan. Ocean and Coastal Management 112 (2015)
61-73.

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Appendix 16: CCB Community Monitoring Plan

EXCEPTIONAL COMMUNITY AND UNIQUE PROJECT BENEFITS

Exceptional Community Project Code Monitoring Indicator Data Who? When? Where?
Community Benefit SMART Indicator/ type collection
and Unique Indicator objective Monitoring method
Project Metric
Benefit

HCV-4: Improved By 2030 at SIA001 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
Provision of protection least 80 % of vulnerable report outreach
Critical from storms the community team
Ecosystem surges and vulnerable members
Services other coastal coastal reporting
hazards for communities improved
communities are reporting protection
and coastal improved from storms
infrastructur protection surges and
e from storms other coastal
surges and hazards for
other coastal communities
hazards for and coastal
communities infrastructur
and coastal e
infrastructur
e

HCV-5: A significant By 2030, at SIA002 No. of fishing Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
Provision of increase in least 85% of community report outreach
Community spawning the fishing members team
places for community reporting

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Benefits fishes, members significant

shrimps and are reporting increase in
other marine a significant spawning
life. increase in places for
spawning fishes,
places for shrimps and
fishes, other marine
shrimps and life.
other marine
life.

HCV- 6: Conservation By 2030, at SIA003 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
Conservation of historical least 75% of community report outreach
of sites, and cultural the local members team
resources, heritage communities reporting
habitats and sites and are reporting conservation
landscapes cultural HCV-6 of HCV-6
of global or artefacts, related sites.
national and sites services
cultural, that provide
archaeologic inspiration,
al or knowledge
historical and
significance, information
and/or of as well as
critical aesthetic
cultural, and
ecological, recreational
economic or services.
religious/sac
red
importance
for the

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traditional
cultures of
local
communities
or
indigenous
peoples,
identified
through
engagement
with these
local
communities
or
indigenous
peoples

STANDARDIZED COMMUNITY BENEFITS

Trainings Total number By 2030, at SIA004 No. of local Output Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of least 70% of community report outreach
community the local members team
members communities who have
who are are reporting been trained
expected to improved under the
have skills and/or project
improved knowledge (segmented
skills and/or resulting by the type
knowledge from training of training
resulting provided as provided)
from training part of and who are
provided as project reporting
part of improved

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project activities. skills and/or

activities knowledge
resulting
from training
provided as
part of
project
activities.

Number of By 2030 at SIA005 No. of Output Internal Community Annually Project Zone
female least 50% of female report outreach
community female community team
members community members
who are members who have
expected to are reporting been trained
have improved under the
improved skills and/or project
skills and/or knowledge (segmented
knowledge resulting by the type
resulting from training of training
from training as part of provided)
as part of project and who are
project activities. reporting
activities. improved
skills and/or
knowledge
resulting
from training
provided as
part of
project
activities.

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Employment Total number By 2030, at SIA006 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of people least 25% or community report outreach
expected to 5,000 local members team
be employed community who are
in project members employed in
activities, are project
expressed as employed in activities
number of project expressed as
full-time activities. number of
employees. full-time
employees.

Total number By 2030, at SIA007 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of women least 5% or female report outreach
expected to 1,000 community team
be employed female members
in project community who are
activities, members employed in
expressed as are project
number of employed in activities
full-time project expressed as
employees. activities. number of
full-time
employees.

Livelihoods Total number By 2030, at SIA008 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of people least 60% or community report outreach
expected to 15,000 members team
have people have who are
improved improved reporting
livelihoods or livelihoods or improved
income income livelihoods or

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generated as generated as income

a result of a result of generated as
project project a result of
activities. activities. project
activities.

Total number By 2030, at SIA009 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of women least 50% or female report outreach
expected to 3,500 community team
have women have members
improved improved who are
livelihoods or livelihoods or reporting
income income improved
generated as generated as livelihoods or
a result of a result of income
project project generated as
activities. activities. a result of
project
activities.

Health Total number By 2030, at SIA010 No. of people Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of people for least 60% or reporting report outreach
whom health 15,000 improved team
services are people have access to
expected to improved health
improve as a access to services
result of health measured
project services as a against the
activities, result of without-
measured project project
against the activities scenario.
without- measured
project against the

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scenario. without-
project
scenario.

Total number By 2030, at SIA011 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of women for least 60% or women report outreach
whom health 4,500 reporting team
services are women have improved
expected to improved access to
improve as a access to health
result of health services
project services as a measured
activities, result of against the
measured project without-
against the activities project
without- measured scenario.
project against the
scenario. without-
project
scenario.

Education Total number By 2030, at SIA012 No. of school Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of people for least 50% of going age report outreach
whom the school children who team
access to, or going age are enrolled
quality of children are in schools
education is going to and have
expected to school and access to
improve as have access education as
result of to quality a result of
project education as project
activities, a result of activities
measured project measured

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against the activities against the

without- measured without-
project against the project
scenario. without- scenario.
project
scenario.

Total number By 2030, at SIA013 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of women least 30% of women or report outreach
and girls for the women school going team
whom or school age girls who
access to, or going age are enrolled
quality of girls are in schools
education is going to and have
expected to school and access to
improve as have access education as
result of to quality a result of
project education as project
activities, a result of activities
measured project measured
against the activities against the
without- measured without-
project against the project
scenario. without- scenario.
project
scenario.

Water Total number By 2030, at SIA014 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of people least 50% of community report outreach
who are the members team
expected to community who are
experience members experiencing
increased are increased

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water quality experiencing water quality

and/or increased and/or
improved water quality improved
access to and/or access to
drinking improved drinking
water as a access to water as a
result of drinking result of
project water as a project
activities, result of activities,
measured project measured
against the activities against the
without- measured without-
project against the project
scenario. without- scenario.
project
scenario.

Total number By 2030, at SIA015 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of people least 60% of female report outreach
who are the women community team
expected to community members
experience members who are
increased are experiencing
water quality experiencing increased
and/or increased water quality
improved water quality and/or
access to and/or improved
drinking improved access to
water as a access to drinking
result of drinking water as a
project water as a result of
activities, result of project
measured project activities,

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against the activities measured

without- measured against the
project against the without-
scenario. without- project
project scenario.
scenario.

Well-being Total number By 2030, at SIA016 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of least 60% of households report outreach
community the who are team
members households reporting
whose well— are experiencing
being is experiencing improved
expected to improved well-being as
improve as a well-being as a result of
result of a result of project
project project activities.
activities. activities.

Total number By 2030, at SIA017 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
of women least 70% of women who report outreach
community the women are reporting team
members are experiencing
whose well— experiencing improved
being is improved well-being as
expected to well-being as a result of
improve as a a result of project
result of project activities.
project activities.
activities.

WOMEN EMPOWERMENT

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Income and Total number By 2030, at SIA018 No. of

Assets of women in least 50% of women
the Project women in reporting
Zone who the Project increased
have Zone have income
increased increased earning and
income income asset
earning and earning and possessing
asset asset opportunities
possessing possessing .
opportunities opportunities
. .

Leadership Total number By 2030, at SIA019 No. of

of women in least 20% of women
the Project women in reporting
Zone who the Project access to
have access Zone have participation
to leadership access to in Women
position as a participation Organization
result of in Women s and
project Organization trainings in
interventions s and leadership
. trainings in related skills.
leadership
related skills.

Knowledge Total number By 2030, at SIA020 No. of

and of women least 20% of women and
Education and school women and school going
age going 60% of girls
girls who school going reporting

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have access age girls access to

to education have access education
facilities. to education facilities.
facilities.

Health Total number By 2030, at SIA021 No. of

of women least 70% of women and
and girls who women and girls
have access girls have reporting
to improved access to increased
health care improved access to
facilities. health improved
facilities. health
facilities.

Food Total number By 2030, at SIA022 No. of

Security of women least 75% of women and
and girls who women and girls
have girls have reporting
improved access to increased
access to nutritious access to
nutritious food. nutritious
food. food.

Time Total number By 2030, at SIA023 No. of

of women least 25% of women who
who have women have are reporting
improved learned improved
time improved time
management time management
skills as a management skills as a
result of skills as a result of
project result of project

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trainings. project trainings.

trainings.

SDGs ACHIEVEMENT

SDG-1: No Poverty-End Poverty in All its Forms Everywhere

1.1 By 2030, 1.1.1 By 2030, at SIA024 No. of people Output Internal Community Annually Project Zone
eradicate Proportion of least 80% of with report outreach
extreme population community improved team
poverty for below the members livelihoods or
all people, international with direct income
currently poverty line, livelihood resulting
measures as by sex, age, and well- from the
people living employment being project.
on less than status and benefits
$ 1.25 a day. geographical from DBC-2
location
(urban/rural)

SDG-2: End Hunger, Achieve Food Security and Improved Nutrition and Promote Sustainable Agriculture

2.1 By 2.1.1 By 2030, at SIA025 No. of people

20230, end Prevalence least 90% of adopting
hunger and of Project Zone improved
ensure undernouris community agricultural
access by all hment members or livestock
people, in have access or
particular to sufficient sustainable
poor and food year- fishing
people in round. practices.
vulnerable

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situations,
including
infants, to
safe,
nutritious
and
sufficient
food year-
round.

SDG-3: Ensure Healthy Lives and Promote Well-being for All at All Ages

3.8 Achieve 3.8.1 By 2030, at SIA026 No. of people Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
universal Coverage of least 85% of reporting report outreach
health essential Project Zone access to team
coverage, health community improved
including services members health
financial risk (defined as have access facilities.
protection, the average to sufficient
access to coverage of food year-
quality essential round.
essential services
health-care based on
services and tracer
access to interventions
safe, that include
effective, reproductive,
quality and maternal,
affordable new-born
essential and child
medicines health,
and vaccines infectious
diseases,

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for all. non-

communicab
le diseases
and service
capacity and
access,
among the
general and
the most
disadvantag
ed
population).

SDG-4: Ensure Inclusive and Equitable Quality Education and Promote Lifelong Learning Opportunities for All

4.1 By 2030, 4.1.1 By 2030, at SIA027 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
ensure all Proportion of least 90% of children report outreach
girls and children and Project Zone attending team
boys young children school
complete people (a) in have access
free, grades 2/3; to education.
equitable (b) at the
and quality end of
primary and primary; and
secondary (c) at the end
education of lower
leading to secondary
relevant and achieving at
effective least a
learning minimum
outcomes. proficiency
level in (i)
reading and

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(ii)
mathematics
, by sex.

SDG-5: Achieve Gender Equality and Empower All Women and Girls

5.5 Ensure 5.5.1 By 2030, at No. of

women full Proportion of least 20% of women
and effective community the women reporting
participation women are social
and equal organized organized mobilization
Household
opportunities into Women and are and
surveys / Community
for Organization members of organization
SIA028 Impact PRAs / outreach Annually Project Zone
leadership s and getting Women into Women
internal team
leadership Organization Organization
report
related s and have and having
trainings. received received
leadership leadership
related related
trainings. trainings.

SDG-6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of Water and Sanitation for All

6.1 By 2030, 6.1.1 By 2030, at SIA029 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
achieve Proportion of least 50% of community report outreach
universal population local members team
and using safely communities reporting
equitable managed have access access to
access to drinking to safe and safe and
safe and water affordable affordable
affordable facilities. drinking drinking
drinking water. water

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water for all. facilities as a

result of
project
activities,
measured
against the
without-
project
scenario.

6.2 By 2030, 6.2.1 By 2030, at SIA030 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
achieve Proportion of least 40% of community report outreach
access to population local members team
adequate using (a) communities reporting
and safely have access access to
equitable managed to safely safely
sanitation sanitation managed managed
and hygiene services and sanitation sanitation
for all and (b) hand- services/faci services/faci
end open washing lities. lities.
defecation, facility with
paying soap and
special water.
attention to
the needs of
women and
girls and
those in
vulnerable
situations.

SDG-7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable sustainable and modern Energy for All

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7.1 By 2030, 7.1.1 By 2030, at SIA031 No. of Outcome Internal Community Annually Project Zone
ensure Proportion of least 45% of households/ report outreach
universal population households/ individuals team
access to with access individuals reporting
affordable, to electricity. accessing accessing
reliable and electricity electricity
modern and/or and/or
energy renewable renewable
services. energy energy as a
result of
project
interventions
, measured
against the
without-
project
scenario.

SDG-8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable Economic Growth and Decent Work for All

8.5 By 2030, 8.5.1 By 2030, at SIA032 No. of Outcome Household Community Annually Project Zone
achieve full Average least 5,000 community surveys / outreach
and hourly community members PRAs / team
productive earnings of members including internal
employment employees including women who report
and decent by sex, age, 1,000 are reporting
work for all occupation women are getting
women and and persons getting employment
men, with employment in project
including for disabilities. in project related
young related activities.
people and activities.

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persons with
disabilities,
and equal
pay for work
of equal
value.

SDG-9: Build Resilient Infrastructure, Promote Inclusive and Sustainable Industrialization and Foster Innovation

9.1 Develop 9.1.1 By 2030, SIA033 No. of

quality, Proportion of green community
reliable and the rural infrastructur members
resilient population e in the form who report
infrastructur who live of restored the
e, including within 2 km wetlands development
regional and of an all- sites is of green
transborder season road. developed infrastructur
infrastructur within the e in the form
e, to support Project Zone of restored
economic that protect wetlands
development at least 20% sites that
and human of the rural protects the
well-being, population roads used
with a focus who live by
on within 2 km community
affordable of an all- members.
and season road.
equitable
access for
all.

SDG-10: Reduce In equality Within and Among Countries

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10.1 By 10.1.1 By 2030, at SIA034 No. of

2030, Growth rates least 30 community
progressively of household percent of members
achieve and expenditure the Project who report
sustain or income Zone earning
income per capita population income
growth of the among the are earning higher than
bottom 40 bottom 40 income local
percent of percent of higher than minimum
the the local wage.
population at population minimum
a rate higher and the total wage rate.
than the population.
national
average.

10.2 By 10.2.1 By 2030, at SIA035 No. of

2030, Proportion of least 35 community
empower population percent of members
and promote living below the Project who are
the social, 50 percent Zone gainfully
economic of median Population employed or
and political income, by are gainfully have
inclusion of sex, age, and employed business
all, persons with with the opportunities
irrespective disabilities. Project or created as a
of age, sex, have result of
disability, business different
race, opportunities project
ethnicity, . created interventions
origin. .

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SDG-11: Make Cities and Human Settlements Inclusive, Safe, Resilient and Sustainable

11.5 By 11.5.2 Direct By 2030, at SIA036 No. of

2030, economic least 40 of community
significantly losses members
reduce the attributed to who are
number of disasters in reporting
deaths and relation reduction in
number of global economic
people domestic losses
affected and product attributed to
substantially (GDP). climate-
decrease the change
direct related
economic disasters.
losses
relative to
global gross
domestic
product
caused by
disasters,
including
water-related
disasters,
with a focus
on protecting
the poor and
people in
vulnerable
situations.

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SDG-12: Ensure Sustainable Consumption and Production Patterns

12.2 By 12.2.1 By 2030, at SIA037 No. or

2030, Material least 30% of proportion of
achieve the footprint, the fishing fishing
sustainable material community community
management footprint per have members
and efficient capita, and adopted reporting the
use of material sustainable adoption of
natural footprint per fishing sustainable
resources. GDP. practices. fishing
practices.

SDG-13: Take Urgent Action to Combat Climate Change and its Impacts

13.1 13.1.1 By 2030, at SIA038 No. of

Strengthen Number of least 40 vulnerable
resilience deaths, percent of community
and adaptive missing the members
capacity to persons, and vulnerable reporting
climate- directly communities increased
related affected are reporting resilience
hazards and persons increased and adaptive
natural attributed to resilience capacity to
disasters. disasters per and adaptive climate
100,000 capacity to change
population. climate caused
change disasters.
caused
disasters.

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SDG-14: Conserve and Sustainably Use the Oceans, Seas and Marine Resources for Sustainable Development

14.4 By 14.4.1 By 2030, SIA039 No. of

2020, Proportion of fish stocks of species
effectively fish stocks at least 3 whose
regulate within species are population is
harvesting biologically showing showing
and end sustainable positive positive
overfishing, levels. trends in trends.
illegal, population.
unreported
and
unregulated
fishing and
destructive
fishing
practices
and
implement
science-
based
management
plans, in
order to
restore fish
stocks in the
shortest time
feasible, at
least at
levels that
can produce
maximum
sustainable

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yield as
determined
by their
biological
characteristi
cs.

SDG-15: Protect, Restore and Promote Sustainable Use of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Sustainably Manage Forests, Combat Desertification, and Halt and
Reverse Land Degradation and Halt Biodiversity Loss

15.2 By 15.2.1 By 2030, at SIA040 No. of

2020, Progress least hectares of
promote the towards 100,000 of degraded
implementati sustainable degraded and de-
on of forest and de- vegetated
sustainable management vegetated mangrove
management . mangrove lands
of all types lands are restored and
of forests, restored and sustainably
halt are managed.
deforestatio sustainably
n, restore managed.
degraded
forests and
substantially
increase
afforestation
and
reforestation
.

SDG-16: Promote Peaceful and Inclusive Societies for Sustainable Development, Provide Access to Justice for All and Build Effective, Accountable and

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Inclusive Institutions at All Levels

16.6 16.6.2 By 2030, at SIA041 No. or

Develop Proportion of least 25 proportion of
effective, population percent of Project Zone
accountable satisfied with the Project population
and their last Zone who are
transparent experience population is organized
institutions of public organized into inclusive
at all levels. services. into inclusive village
village development
development committees
committees and/or
and/or women
women organization
organization s.
s.

SDG-17: Strengthen the Means of Implementation and Revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development

17.6 17.6.1 By 2030, at SIA042 No. of MoUs

Enhance Number of least 2 and/or
North-South, science Memorandu Agreements
South-South and/or m of signed by the
and technology Understandi Project with
triangular cooperation ng (MoUs) relevant
regional and agreements and/or institutions
international and Agreements for
cooperation programmes are signed cooperation
on access to between by the in science
science, countries, by Project with and
technology type of relevant technology
and institution

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innovation cooperation. for fields.

and enhance cooperation
knowledge- in science
sharing on and
mutually technology
agreed fields.
terms,
including
through
improved
coordination
among
existing
mechanisms
.

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Appendix 17: CCB Biodiversity Monitoring Plan for Biodiversity Benefits and Conservation of High
Conservation Value (HCV) Areas

EXCEPTIONAL BIODIVERSITY BENEFITS AND CONSERVATION OF HCVs

Exceptional Biodiversity Project Code Monitoring Indicator type Data Who? When? Where?
Biodiversity Benefit SMART Indicator/ collection
and Indicator objective Monitoring method
Adaptation Metric
Benefits for
Biodiversity

Increase in Concentratio By 2030, at BIA001 Number of HCV-1 Participatory Community Annually Project Zone
HCV-1 n of biological least 75% of community Rural Outreach and
Biodiversity diversity community members Appraisals Biodiversity
Benefits including members are reporting or (PRAs) Impact
endemic reporting biodiversity and/or Assessment
species, and presence of survey results Biodiversity Teams
rare, or increased indicating Surveys and
threatened biodiversity of presence of Reports
and HCV-1 or increased
endangered species. number of
species, that endemic,
are rare,
significant at vulnerable,
global, threatened
regional or and
national endangered
levels.

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(Species species.
Conservation
Benefits).

Increase in Large By 2030, at BIA002 Number of HCV—2 Participatory Community Annually Project Zone
HCV-2 landscape- least 75% of community Rural Outreach and
Biodiversity level community members Appraisals Biodiversity
Benefits ecosystems members are reporting or and/or Impact
and reporting biodiversity Biodiversity Assessment
ecosystem presence of survey results Surveys and Teams
mosaics that or increased indicating Reports
are extent of presence of
significant at landscape or increased
global, level extent of
regional or ecosystems landscape
national and mosaics level
levels, and that are ecosystems
that contain characteristic and mosaics
viable of wetlands that are
populations landscapes. characteristic
of the great of wetlands
majority of landscapes.
the naturally
occurring
species in
natural
patterns of
distribution
and
abundance.
(Landscapes
Conservation
Benefits)

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Increase in Rare, By 2030, at BIA003 Number of HCV-3 Participatory Community Annually Project Zone
HCV-3 threatened, least 80% of community Rural Outreach and
Biodiversity or community members Appraisals Biodiversity
Benefits endangered members are reporting or and/or Impact
ecosystems, reporting biodiversity Biodiversity Assessment
habitat or presence of survey results Surveys and Teams
refugia. or increased indicating Reports
(Habitats or extent of presence of
refugia rare, or increased
conservation) threatened, extent of
. or rare,
endangered threatened,
ecosystems, or
habitats or endangered
refugia. ecosystems,
habitats or
refugia.

Increase in Trigger By 2030, at BIA004 Number of Composition Participatory Community Annually Project Zone
Trigger Species least 75% community Rural Outreach and
Species Conservation. community members Appraisals Biodiversity
Conservation members are reporting or and/or Impact
reporting biodiversity Biodiversity Assessment
presence of survey results Surveys and Teams
or increased indicating Reports
extent of presence of
trigger or increased
species. extent of
trigger
species.

Increased in Key By 2030, at BIA005 Number of Process Participatory Community Annually Project Zone
extent of Key Biodiversity least 75% community Rural Outreach and
Biodiversity Areas community member Appraisals Biodiversity

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Area/ Conservation members are reporting or and/or Impact

Dimension reporting biodiversity Biodiversity Assessment
presence of survey results Surveys and Teams
or increased indicating Reports
extent of at presence of
least one or increased
dimension of extent of at
Key least one
Biodiversity dimension of
Areas such as Key
increased Biodiversity
ecological Areas such as
integrity, increased
biological ecological
processes or integrity,
irreversibility. biological
processes or
irreversibility.

Increase in Exceptional By 2030, at BIA006 Number of Function Participatory Community Annually Project Zone
biodiversity biodiversity or least 75% community Rural Outreach and
adaptation increase in community member Appraisals Biodiversity
benefits biodiversity members are reporting or and/or Impact
adaptation reporting biodiversity Biodiversity Assessment
benefits. presence of survey results Surveys and Teams
or increased indicating Reports
extent of presence of
exceptional exceptional/
biodiversity/ biodiversity
biodiversity adaptation
adaptation benefits.
benefits.

HABITAT EXPANSION AND IMPROVEMENT

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Increase in Habitat By 2030, BIA007 No. of Function Satellite GIS and Field Annually Project Area
Habitat Area Expansion restore hectares of imagery Operations
and 193,495 degraded and analysis and Teams
Improvement hectares of de-vegetated field
degraded and mangrove checking/
de-vegetated lands verification
mangrove restored supported by
lands. through geotagged
planting or photographs,
promotion of internal
natural progress and
regeneration. surveys
reports

BIODIVERSITY COMPOSTIONAL ENHANCEMENT

Increase in Species By 2030, BIA008 Increase in Composition Terrestrial CCB Annually Project Zone
the variety richness of there is at species and Aquatic Biodiversity
and identity characteristic least 10% richness of biodiversity Team
of organisms biota (floral, increase in characteristic surveys and
faunal or species biota. internal
micro- richness of progress
organisms). characteristic reports and
biota. survey
reports

Increase in Increase in By 2030, BIA009 Increase in Composition Terrestrial CCB Annually Project Zone
the the extent there is at the extent and Aquatic Biodiversity
abundance of and least 15% and/or biodiversity Team
organisms abundance of increase in abundance of surveys and
keystone abundance of floral, faunal internal
floral, floral, faunal, or microbial progress
mammal, fishes and species reports and
birds, other aquatic survey

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reptiles, species reports

amphibian, subject to
fishes and/or harvesting.
other aquatic
species
subject to
harvesting.

BIODIVERSITY STRUCTURAL ENHANCEMENT

Increase in Increase in By 2030, BIA010 Increase in Structural Terrestrial CCB Annually Project Zone
biotic size biotic size there is at biotic size and Aquatic Biodiversity
and form and form of least 20% and form biodiversity Team
floral, faunal increase in surveys and
or microbial total biomass internal
biodiversity. progress
reports and
survey
reports

Increase in Increase in By 2030, BIA011 Increase in Structural Terrestrial CCB Annually Project Zone
physical size physical size there is at physical size and Aquatic Biodiversity
and form and form of least 25% and form biodiversity Team
floral, faunal increase in surveys and
or microbial canopy cover internal
biodiversity. of restored progress
areas reports and
survey
reports

Increase in Increase in By 2030, BIA012 Improvement Structural Physical and CCB Annually Project Area
physical physical there is at or increase in chemical Laboratory
and/or and/or least 10% physical and analysis of Technicians
chemical chemical improvement chemical soil and

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characteristic characteristic and/or characteristic water

s s of wetlands increase in s of soil or
soils. soil organic water
matter
and/or
physical or
chemical
properties of
soil or water

FUNCTIONAL BIODIVERSITY ENHANCEMENT

Increase in Increase in By 2030, BIA013 Increase in Function Remote GIS and Field Annually Project Area
net primary net primary achieve a net primary sensing and Operations
productivity productivity 15% increase productivity ground-based Team and
of restored in net primary as measured surveys CCB
mangrove productivity by annual Biodiversity
forests. (NPP) of growth rate. Team
restored
mangrove
forests as
measured by
the annual
growth rate of
biomass.

Increase in Assess the By 2030, BIA014 Increase in Function Biodiversity CCB Annually Project Zone
habitat availability there is at the quantity Assessment Biodiversity
provision for and quality of least 15% or quality of Techniques Team
fauna and/or habitat increase in key habitat for the
micro- provided by key habitat features for measuremen
organisms restored features for terrestrial t of terrestrial
mangrove terrestrial and and
forests for a and supratidal, supratidal,

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diverse range supratidal, intertidal and intertidal and

of fauna, intertidal and subtidal subtidal
including subtidal biodiversity of biodiversity.
birds, fish, biodiversity of mangrove
crustaceans, mangrove wetlands
and other wetlands ecosystem.
wildlife ecosystems.
species,
indicating the
success of
habitat
restoration
efforts.

REDUCTION IN PRESSURES ON BIODIVERSITY

Decrease in Assess the By 2030, BIA015 Decrease in Pressures Biodiversity CCB Annually Project Zone
the scale and scale and there is at the scale and Assessment Biodiversity
severity of severity of least 25% severity of Techniques Team
threatening threatening decrease in threatening for the
processes processes the scale and processes assessment
and/or and/or severity of and/or of scale and
pressures on pressures on threatening pressures on biodiversity of
mangrove mangrove processes mangrove threatening
ecosystems. ecosystems. and/or ecosystems. processes
pressures on and/or
mangrove pressures on
ecosystems. mangrove
ecosystems.

Absence of or Assess the By 2030, BIA016 Decrease in Pressures Biodiversity CCB Annually Project Zone
decrease in absence of or there is at the presence Assessment Biodiversity
the presence decrease in least 20% of invasive Techniques Team
of invasive the presence decrease in species, or for the

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species, or of invasive the presence fishing, assessment

fishing, species, or of invasive harvesting, of invasive
harvesting, fishing, species, grazing or species, or
grazing or harvesting, fishing, hunting fishing,
hunting grazing or harvesting, pressures or harvesting or
pressures or hunting grazing, land-use hunting
land-use pressures or hunting change pressures or
change land-use pressures or related land-use
related change land-use pressures. change
pressures. related change related
pressures. related pressures
pressures.

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Appendix 18: List Of Endemic Plant Species Found in Sindh Province

S.No. Plant family and species Distribution Conservation status

1 Acanthaceae – Justicia vahlii Scindica (Malik

Karachi and Dadu District Rare
& Ghafoor)

2 Asparagaceae – Asparagus deltae (Blatter) Thatta Extinct

3 Asparagaceae – Asparagus gharoensis

Southern Sindh Probably extinct
(Blatter)

4 Asparagaceae – Asparagus dumosus (Baker) Coastal areas of Sindh Vulnerable

5 Karachi Division, Thatta and

Burseraceae – Commiphora stocksiana (Engl) Rare
Sanghar Districts

6 Chenopodiaceae – Atriplex stocksii Boiss Coastal areas of Sindh Fairly common

7 Compositae – Pulicaria boisseri (Hook F) Sindh Fairly common

8 Convolvulaceae – Convolvulus scindicus

Thatta and Dadu Districts Rare
(Stocks)

9 Malvaceae – Abutilon alii (Abedin) Karachi Division Critically endangered

10 Malvaceae – Abutilon karachianum (Husain&

Karachi Division Critically endangered
Baquar)

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11 Malvaceae – Abutilon sepalum (Husain & Karachi Division and Thatta

On the brink of extinction
Baquar) District

12 Malvaceae – Hibiscus scindicus (Stocks) Sindh Rare

13 Malvaceae – Pavonia glechomaefolia

Karachi Rare
f.karachiensis (Abedin)

14 Malvaceae – Sida spinosa kazmii var. (Abedin) Sindh Rare

15 Mimosaceae – Acacia nilotica hemispherica

Sindh Fairly common
(Ali & Faruqi)

16 Tamaricaceae – Tamarix alii (Qaiser) Southern Sindh Fairly common

17 Khairpur, Mirpurkhas, Sukkur,

Tamaricaceae – Tamarix salina (Dyer) Rare
Karachi

18 Tharparkar District, Keti Bundar,

Tamaricaceae – Tamarix sarenensis (Qaiser) Rare
Keenjhar

19 Tamaricaceae – Tamarix sultanii (Qaiser) Southern Sindh Rare

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Appendix 19: Biodiversity Survey

Terrestrial Biodiversity Survey

Summary

The report provides a comprehensive overview of the DBC-2 (Delta Blue Carbon-2) project in Sindh, which aims
to conserve and revitalize the mangrove ecosystem in the Indus Delta region. The methodology section outlines
the systematic approach employed to survey biodiversity, including field surveys, data collection, and analysis
techniques.

The mammal section highlights eight species observed in the project area, including the endangered Indian
Ocean Humpback Dolphin and the vulnerable Fishing Cat.

Bird surveys conducted at seven strategically selected points revealed 35 species, with particular attention given
to seven species classified as endangered, near threatened, or vulnerable. A total of 281 individual birds were
recorded during the survey.

The reptile section identifies four species observed, with one near threatened and one vulnerable.

Throughout the report, detailed tables and figures present species composition and density at various survey
stations. References are provided for further reading and research. Overall, the report underscores the ecological
significance of the mangrove ecosystem and the need for conservation efforts to protect its biodiversity.

Introduction

The DBC-2 (Delta Blue Carbon-2) project in Sindh stands as an innovative endeavor dedicated to conserving and
revitalizing the crucial mangrove ecosystem nestled within the Indus Delta.

Stretching along the coastline of Sindh province, these mangroves form one of the largest deltaic ecosystems
globally and are renowned for their ecological importance and biodiversity. Comprising various species of
mangrove trees, such as Avicennia marina, Rhizophora mucronata, and Ceriops tagal, the Indus Delta
mangroves serve as a critical habitat for numerous species of flora and fauna. They provide breeding grounds,
nurseries, and shelter for a diverse array of marine life, including fish, crustaceans, and mollusks, which are
essential for sustaining local fisheries and supporting the livelihoods of coastal communities.

In addition to their ecological significance, the Indus Delta mangroves contribute to carbon sequestration and
climate regulation by absorbing and storing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This carbon
sequestration capacity, coupled with their ability to act as carbon sinks, makes mangrove conservation a vital
component of global efforts to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Methodology:

Surveying the biodiversity of the DBC-2 project area involved a systematic approach to ensure comprehensive
data collection.

1. Field Surveys: Conducted systematic transect surveys across various mangrove habitats to document species
diversity and abundance.

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2. Data Collection: Recorded observations of species using standardized protocols, including visual surveys,
camera trapping. Accidental sightings and sightings reported by residents were also included to supplement field
data.

3. Data Analysis: Calculated species richness, abundance, and diversity indices using statistical methods.
Employed GIS mapping to visualize species distribution patterns within the mangrove ecosystem.

Map of Biodiversity Impact Assessment Stations and Birds species

Figure A19.2. Site Stations and Birds Species

Table A19.8. Coordinates of Biodiversity Impact Assessment Stations

ST# Latitude Longitude

Station 1 24°23'47.22"N 68°46'4.01"E

Station 2 24°23'6.52"N 68°44'2.55"E

Station 3 24°20'41.00"N 68°41'8.10"E

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Station 4 24°19'37.94"N 68°45'24.18"E

Station 5 24°20'44.72"N 68°30'59.63"E

Station 6 24°13'54.72"N 68°22'18.77"E

Station 7 24° 2'3.43"N 68°13'34.97"E

Mammals

A comprehensive survey conducted within the mangrove ecosystem of the DBC-2 project area revealed the
presence of eight mammal species. Notably, sightings of the endangered Indian Ocean Humpback Dolphin
(Sousa plumbea) underscored the rich diversity of mammals thriving in these mangrove habitats. Additionally,
the observation of the Fishing Cat (Prionailurus viverrinus), classified as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List, along
with six other mammal species during the survey, further highlights the importance of these ecosystems for
supporting diverse wildlife.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that a total of 45 individual mammals were observed throughout the survey,
indicating a significant presence of mammalian fauna within the study area. This diverse mammal community
emphasizes the importance of conserving mangrove habitats to safeguard the biodiversity and ecological
balance of coastal ecosystems.

Table A19.9. List of IUCN Red listed Mammals recorded from the project area

Scientific Common CITES

Order Family IUCN Status
Name Name Appendices

Indian Ocean
Sousa
1 Cetacea Delphinidae Humpback EN I
plumbea
dolphin

Prionailurus
2 Carnivora Felidae Fishing Cat VU II
viverrinus

The Indian Ocean humpback dolphin (Sousa plumbea) is listed in Appendix I of the Convention on International
Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). This listing means that international trade in this
species is strictly prohibited, except in exceptional circumstances, to ensure its survival and prevent
unsustainable exploitation. Similarly, the fishing cat (Prionailurus viverrinus) is also listed in Appendix II of CITES.
This listing aims to control and monitor the trade of fishing cats and their derivatives to ensure that it does not
threaten the survival of the species in the wild.

Table A19.3. List of Mammals recorded from mangrove area.

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Order Family Scientific Name Common IUCN Red CITES CMS

Name List

1 Cetacea Delphinidae Sousa plumbea Indian Ocean EN I -

humpback
dolphin

2 Carnivora Felidae Felis chaus Jungle Cat LC II -

3 Carnivora Canidae Canis aureus Indian jackal LC III _

4 Carnivora Felidae Prionailurus Fishing cat VU II -

viverrinus

5 Carnivora Herpestidae Herpestes edwardsii Indian grey LC III _

mongoose

6 Rodentia Hystricidae Hystrix indica Indian Crested LC _ _

Porcupine

7 Rodentia Sciuridae Funambulus Indian Palm LC _ _

palmarum Squirrel

8 Chiroptera Vespertilionidae Pipistrellus Common LC _ _

pipistrellus pipistrelle

Figure A19.4. Indian Jackal Figure A19.3. Indian Ocean Humpback Dolphin

Table A19.4. Station wise composition and density (percentage) of various mammals at DBC-2 project area.

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Scientific name Common name ST-1 ST-2 ST-3 ST-4 ST-5 ST-6 ST-7

Sousa plumbea Indian Ocean humpback dolphin 2

Felis chaus Jungle Cat 1 2

Canis aureus Indian jackal 1 2 1

Prionailurus viverrinus Fishing cat 1

Urva edwardsii Indian grey mongoose 1 2 2 3

Hystrix indica Indian Crested Porcupine 2 1

Funambulus palmarum Indian Palm Squirrel 3 2 1 1

Pipistrellus pipistrellus Common Pipistrelle 2 4 6 2 3

Birds:

The avifaunal survey conducted in September 2023, marking the beginning of the arrival of migratory birds in
the region, covered the entire project area with a total of 7 strategically selected points. During this survey, a
comprehensive assessment revealed a total of 35 bird species, as outlined in Table A18.5 of the report. Among
this diverse avian community, particular attention is drawn to seven species of significant concern, as they have
been classified as endangered, near threatened, or vulnerable according to the International Union for
Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List.

Table A19.5. Bird Species Listed on the IUCN Red List observed in the project area.

Common Name Scientific Name Family IUCN Status CITES CMS

1 Steppe Eagle Aquila nipalensis Accipitridae Endangered II I

2 River Tern Sterna aurantia Laridae Vulnerable - -

Near
3 Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa Scolopacidae - II
Threatened

Aegypius Near
4 Cinereous Vulture Accipitridae II II
monachus Threatened

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Near
5 Dalmatian Pelican Pelecanus crispus Pelecanidae I II
Threatened

Near
6 Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata Scolopacidae - II
Threatened

Near
7 Laggar Falcon Falco jugger Falconidae I -
Threatened

During the survey the Steppe Eagle (Aquila nipalensis) stands out as an endangered species, signifying the
critical need for conservation efforts to ensure its survival in the wild. Similarly, the River Tern (Sterna aurantia)
is categorized as vulnerable, indicating the significant threats it faces. Additionally, the Cinereous Vulture
(Aegypius monachus) is also classified as near threatened.

In addition to these species, the avifaunal survey also recorded the presence of the Laggar Falcon (Falco jugger),
Dalmatian Pelican (Pelecanus crispus), Black-tailed Godwit (Limosa limosa), and Eurasian Curlew (Numenius
arquata), all of which are classified as near threatened. This classification underscores the vulnerability of these
bird species and emphasizes the importance of conservation efforts to mitigate threats to their populations and
habitats.

The identification of these endangered, near threatened, and vulnerable bird species during the avifaunal survey
underscores the ecological significance of the mangrove area and highlights the need for comprehensive
conservation strategies to safeguard the rich avian biodiversity within this vital ecosystem.

Figure A19.5. Laggar Falcon Figure A19.6. Steppe Eagle

Table A19.6. List of birds recorded from Project Area sites

during the survey.

Common Name Scientific Name Family IUCN Status

1 Asian Green Bee-eater Merops orientalis Meropidae Least Concern

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2 Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica Hirundinidae Least Concern

3 Black Drongo Dicrurus macrocercus Dicruridae Least Concern

4 Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa Scolopacidae Near Threatened

5 Black-winged Stilt Himantopus himantopus Recurvirostridae Least Concern

6 Brahminy Kite Haliastur indus Accipitridae Least Concern

7 Cattle Great Bubulcus ibis Ardeidae Least Concern

8 Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus Accipitridae Near Threatened

9 Collared Pratincole Glareola pratincola Glareolidae Least Concern

10 Common Greenshank Tringa nebularia Scolopacidae Least Concern

11 Common Myna Acridotheres tristis Sturnidae Least Concern

12 Crested Lark Galerida cristata Alaudidae Least Concern

13 Dalmatian Pelican Pelecanus crispus Pelecanidae Near Threatened

14 Eurasian Collared Dove Streptopelia decaocto Columbidae Least Concern

15 Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata Scolopacidae Near Threatened

16 Great Egret Ardea alba Ardeidae Least Concern

17 Greater Coucal Centropus sinensis Cuculidae Least Concern

18 Green Sandpiper Tringa ochropus Scolopacidae Least Concern

19 House Sparrow Passer domesticus Passeridae Least Concern

20 Indian Pond-Heron Ardeola grayii Ardeidae Least Concern

21 Jungle Babbler Turdoides striata Leiothrichidae Least Concern

22 Laggar Falcon Falco jugger Falconidae Near Threatened

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23 Laughing Dove Spilopelia senegalensis Columbidae Least Concern

24 Little Cormorant Microcarbo niger Phalacrocoracidae Least Concern

25 Little Egret Egretta garzetta Ardeidae Least Concern

26 Pied Bushchat Saxicola caprata Muscicapidae Least Concern

27 Pied Kingfisher Ceryle rudis Alcedinidae Least Concern

28 Red-vented Bulbul Pycnonotus cafer Pycnonotidae Least Concern

29 Red-wattled Lapwing Vanellus indicus Charadriidae Least Concern

30 River Tern Sterna aurantia Laridae Vulnerable

31 Steppe Eagle Aquila nipalensis Accipitridae Endangered

32 Whiskered Tern Chlidonias hybrida Laridae Least Concern

33 White-eared Bulbul Pycnonotus leucotis Pycnonotidae Least Concern

34 White-eyed Buzzard Butastur teesa Accipitridae Least Concern

35 White-throated Halcyon smyrnensis Alcedinidae Least Concern

Kingfisher

Bird’s composition at Station 1:

In total, 16 species of birds were observed around the Station-1 area, all of which were resident species and
categorized as least concern in terms of conservation status.

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Figure A19.7. Site location and bird species at Station 1

Table A19.7. Percentage of bird species in Station 1

Number of
No Scientific name Common Name IUCN Status
Individuals

1 Streptopelia decaocto Eurasian Collared Dove 2 Least Concern

2 Spilopelia senegalensis Laughing Dove 3 Least Concern

3 Centropus sinensis Greater Coucal 3 Least Concern

4 Ardea alba Great Egret 5 Least Concern

5 Egretta garzetta Little Egret 2 Least Concern

6 Bubulcus ibis Cattle Great 2 Least Concern

7 Ardeola grayii Indian Pond-Heron 1 Least Concern

8 Microcarbo niger Little Cormorant 5 Least Concern

9 Haliastur indus Brahminy Kite 1 Least Concern

10 Ceryle rudis Pied Kingfisher 1 Least Concern

11 Merops orientalis Asian Green Bee-eater 2 Least Concern

Himantopus
12 Black-winged Stilt 3 Least Concern
himantopus

13 Dicrurus macrocercus Black Drongo 1 Least Concern

14 Pycnonotus cafer Red-vented Bulbul 1 Least Concern

15 Turdoides striata Jungle Babbler 3 Least Concern

16 Acridotheres tristis Common Myna 3 Least Concern

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Bird’s composition at Station 2:

In total, 15 species of birds were observed around the Station-2 area. Three birds were recorded as endangered
or near-threatened species: the Steppe Eagle (Aquila nipalensis), categorized as "Endangered"; the Laggar
Falcon (Falco jugger), classified as "Near Threatened"; and the Cinereous Vulture (Aegypius monachus), also
labeled as "Near Threatened".

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Figure A19.8. Site location and bird species at Station 2

Table A19.8. Percentage of bird species in Station 2

Number of
No Scientific name Common Name IUCN Status
Individuals

1 Accipitridae White-eyed Buzzard 1 Least Concern

2 Glareola pratincola Collared Pratincole 2 Least Concern

3 Merops orientalis Asian Green Bee-eater 5 Least Concern

4 Falco jugger Laggar Falcon 1 Near Threatened

5 Galerida cristata Crested Lark 2 Least Concern

6 Saxicola caprata Pied Bushchat 1 Least Concern

7 Hirundo rustica Barn Swallow 4 Least Concern

8 Aquila nipalensis Steppe Eagle 2 Endangered

9 Aegypius monachus Cinereous Vulture 1 Near Threatened

10 Passer domesticus House Sparrow 2 Least Concern

11 Acridotheres tristis Common Myna 2 Least Concern

12 Vanellus indicus Red-wattled Lapwing 1 Least Concern

13 Spilopelia senegalensis Laughing Dove 2 Least Concern

14 Pycnonotus leucotis White-eared Bulbul 2 Least Concern

15 Dicrurus macrocercus Black Drongo 1 Least Concern

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Bird’s composition at Station 3:

In total, 15 species of birds were observed around the Station 3 area. Four birds were recorded as vulnerable or
near-threatened species: the River Tern (Sterna aurantia), categorized as "Vulnerable"; the Black-tailed Godwit
(Limosa limosa), classified as "Near Threatened"; the Dalmatian Pelican (Pelecanus crispus), also labeled as
"Near Threatened"; and the Eurasian Curlew (Numenius arquata), also classified as "Near Threatened". (Table
A19.8).

Figure A19.9. Site location and bird species at Station 3

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Table A19.9. Percentage of bird species in Station 3

Number of
No Scientific name Common Name IUCN Status
Individuals

1 Vanellus indicus Red-wattled Lapwing 3 Least Concern

2 Tringa ochropus Green Sandpiper 2 Least Concern

3 Tringa nebularia Common Greenshank 1 Least Concern

4 Chlidonias hybrida Whiskered Tern 4 Least Concern

5 Sterna aurantia River Tern 5 Vulnerable

6 Ardea alba Great Egret 3 Least Concern

7 Egretta garzetta Little Egret 4 Least Concern

8 Ardeola grayii Indian Pond-Heron 2 Least Concern

9 Microcarbo niger Little Cormorant 4 Least Concern

10 Haliastur indus Brahminy Kite 2 Least Concern

11 Merops orientalis Asian Green Bee-eater 3 Least Concern

12 Himantopus Black-winged Stilt 4 Least Concern

himantopus

13 Limosa limosa Black-tailed Godwit 6 Near Threatened

14 Pelecanus crispus Dalmatian Pelican 5 Near Threatened

15 Numenius arquata Eurasian Curlew 6 Near Threatened

Bird composition at station 4:

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In total, 16 species of birds were observed around the Station 4 area. Two birds were recorded as vulnerable or
near-threatened species: the River Tern (Sterna aurantia), categorized as "Vulnerable", and the Black-tailed
Godwit (Limosa limosa), categorized as “Near Threatened”. (Table A19.9).

Figure A19.10. Site location and bird species at Station 4

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Table A19.10. Percentage of bird species in Station 4

Number of
No Scientific name Common Name IUCN Status
Individuals

1 Streptopelia decaocto Eurasian Collared Dove 2 Least Concern

2 Vanellus indicus Red-wattled Lapwing 3 Least Concern

3 Tringa ochropus Green Sandpiper 2 Least Concern

4 Tringa nebularia Common Greenshank 4 Least Concern

5 Chlidonias hybrida Whiskered Tern 2 Least Concern

6 Sterna aurantia River Tern 3 Vulnerable

7 Ardea alba Great Egret 4 Least Concern

8 Egretta garzetta Little Egret 2 Least Concern

9 Ardeola grayii Indian Pond-Heron 1 Least Concern

10 Microcarbo niger Little Cormorant 4 Least Concern

11 Haliastur indus Brahminy Kite 1 Least Concern

Himantopus
12 Black-winged Stilt 3 Least Concern
himantopus

13 Turdoides striata Jungle Babbler 2 Least Concern

14 Passer domesticus House Sparrow 4 Least Concern

15 Hirundo rustica Barn Swallow 2 Least Concern

16 Limosa limosa Black-tailed Godwit 4 Near Threatened

Bird composition at station 5:

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In total, 16 species of birds were observed around the Station 4 area. Three birds were recorded as vulnerable
or near-threatened species: the River Tern (Sterna aurantia), categorized as "Vulnerable"; the Black-tailed Godwit
(Limosa limosa), classified as "Near Threatened"; and the Eurasian Curlew (Numenius arquata), also labeled as
"Near Threatened". (Table A19.10).

Figure A19.11. Site location and bird species at Station 5

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Table A19.11. Percentage of bird species in Station 5

Number of
No Scientific name Common Name IUCN Status
Individuals

1 Charadriidae Red-wattled Lapwing 2 Least Concern

2 Tringa nebularia Common Greenshank 3 Least Concern

3 Chlidonias hybrida Whiskered Tern 4 Least Concern

4 Sterna aurantia River Tern 2 Vulnerable

5 Ardea alba Great Egret 3 Least Concern

6 Egretta garzetta Little Egret 4 Least Concern

7 Ardeola grayii Indian Pond-Heron 2 Least Concern

8 Microcarbo niger Little Cormorant 3 Least Concern

9 Haliastur indus Brahminy Kite 2 Least Concern

10 Halcyon smyrnensis White-throated Kingfisher 2 Least Concern

11 Ceryle rudis Pied Kingfisher 1 Least Concern

12 Merops orientalis Asian Green Bee-eater 4 Least Concern

Himantopus
13 Black-winged Stilt 2 Least Concern
himantopus

14 Acridotheres tristis Common Myna 2 Least Concern

15 Limosa limosa Black-tailed Godwit 4 Near Threatened

16 Numenius arquata Eurasian Curlew 3 Near Threatened

Bird composition at station 6:

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In total, 16 species of birds were observed around the Station-6 area, all of which were resident species and
categorized as least concern in terms of conservation status (Table A19.11).

Figure A19.12. Site location and bird species at Station 6

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Table A19.12. Percentage of bird species in Station 6

Number of
No Scientific name Common Name IUCN Status
Individuals

1 Spilopelia senegalensis Laughing Dove 1 Least Concern

2 Vanellus indicus Red-wattled Lapwing 2 Least Concern

3 Chlidonias hybrida Whiskered Tern 3 Least Concern

4 Ardea alba Great Egret 4 Least Concern

5 Egretta garzetta Little Egret 3 Least Concern

6 Bubulcus ibis Cattle Great 2 Least Concern

7 Ardeola grayii Indian Pond-Heron 3 Least Concern

8 Microcarbo niger Little Cormorant 1 Least Concern

9 Haliastur indus Brahminy Kite 2 Least Concern

10 Halcyon smyrnensis White-throated Kingfisher 3 Least Concern

11 Merops orientalis Asian Green Bee-eater 5 Least Concern

Himantopus
12 Black-winged Stilt 1 Least Concern
himantopus

13 Dicrurus macrocercus Black Drongo 2 Least Concern

14 Turdoides striata Jungle Babbler 3 Least Concern

15 Galerida cristata Crested Lark 2 Least Concern

Bird composition at station 7:

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Fifteen species of birds were observed within the Station-7 area, all of which were resident species and assessed
as least concern in terms of conservation status. (Table A19.12).

Figure A19.13. Site location and bird species at Station 7

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Table A19.13. Percentage of bird species in Station 7

Number of
No Scientific name Common Name IUCN Status
Individuals

1 Vanellus indicus Red-wattled Lapwing 1 Least Concern

2 Tringa ochropus Green Sandpiper 3 Least Concern

3 Tringa nebularia Common Greenshank 2 Least Concern

4 Chlidonias hybrida Whiskered Tern 2 Least Concern

5 Ardea alba Great Egret 4 Least Concern

6 Egretta garzetta Little Egret 3 Least Concern

7 Ardeola grayii Indian Pond-Heron 4 Least Concern

8 Microcarbo niger Little Cormorant 2 Least Concern

9 Haliastur indus Brahminy Kite 1 Least Concern

10 Ceryle rudis Pied Kingfisher 2 Least Concern

Himantopus
11 Black-winged Stilt 1 Least Concern
himantopus

12 Dicrurus macrocercus Black Drongo 2 Least Concern

13 Turdoides striata Jungle Babbler 4 Least Concern

14 Passer domesticus House Sparrow 3 Least Concern

15 Hirundo rustica Barn Swallow 2 Least Concern

Reptiles

Four species of reptiles were observed during the present study, two of which are least concern, one is near
threatened, and one is vulnerable. (Table A19.13).

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Table A19.14. Reptiles recorded from mangroves.

Figure A19.14. Oriental Rat Snake Figure A19.15. Indian Flapshell Turtle

Red
No Order Family Scientific name Common name
Listing

1 Squamata Colubridae Ptyas mucosa Oriental Rat Snake LC

2 Squamata Varanidae Varanus bengalensis Bengal Monitor Lizard NT

3 Testudines Trionychidae Lissemys punctata Indian Flapshell Turtle VU

4 Squamata Elapidae Naja naja Indian Cobra LC

Table A19.14. Station-wise density (percentage) of reptiles along Project Area.

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Scientific name Common name ST-1 ST-2 ST-3 ST-4 ST-5 ST-6 ST-7

1 Ptyas mucosa Oriental Rat Snake 3 2

Varanus
2 Bengal Monitor Lizard 1 1 2
bengalensis

Lissemys Indian Flapshell

3 2 1 2
punctata Turtle

4 Naja naja Indian Cobra 1 2

Conclusion

The baseline survey conducted as part of the Delta Blue Carbon-2 (DBC-2) project in Sindh has provided
invaluable insights into the biodiversity of the mangrove ecosystem within the Indus Delta region. Through
systematic field surveys and data analysis, this report has documented a rich assemblage of flora and fauna,
underscoring the ecological significance of mangroves and the urgent need for conservation efforts.

The mammal section revealed the presence of eight species, including the endangered Indian Ocean Humpback
Dolphin and the vulnerable Fishing Cat, emphasizing the importance of protecting their habitat. Avifaunal surveys
identified 35 bird species, with particular attention given to seven species classified as endangered, near
threatened, or vulnerable, highlighting the critical role of mangroves in supporting diverse avian communities.
Additionally, reptile surveys identified four species, including the vulnerable Indian Flapshell Turtle, further
emphasizing the importance of preserving mangrove habitats for the conservation of reptilian biodiversity.

The findings of this survey reinforce the importance of mangrove ecosystems not only for biodiversity
conservation but also for carbon sequestration, climate regulation, and the sustenance of local communities
dependent on coastal resources. The presence of endangered and vulnerable species underscores the urgency
of implementing effective conservation strategies to safeguard the ecological integrity of the Indus Delta
mangroves.

Moving forward, it is imperative to prioritize the protection and restoration of mangrove habitats, ensuring the
long-term sustainability of this vital ecosystem. Collaborative efforts involving government agencies, non-
governmental organizations, local communities, and stakeholders are essential to address the various threats
facing mangroves, including habitat destruction, pollution, overexploitation, and climate change.

By recognizing the ecological value of mangroves and taking proactive measures to conserve them, we can not
only preserve biodiversity but also enhance the resilience of coastal ecosystems to future challenges. The
insights gained from this baseline survey serve as a foundation for informed decision-making and targeted
conservation actions aimed at securing the health and vitality of the Indus Delta mangroves for generations to
come.

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References with this appendix

Ahmed, M. F. 1988. Wildlife estimation techniques. Records Zoological Survey of Pakistan, 9:115-123.

Campbell, S.P. et al, 2002. An Assessment of Monitoring Efforts in Endangered Species Recovery Plans.
Ecological Applications, 12(3), 2002, pp. 674–681.

Cardinale, B.J., Duffy, J.E., Gonzalez, A., Hooper, DU, and Perrings, C. 2012 Biodiversity loss and its impact on
humanity. Nature 486:59-67.

Feller, I.C. and M. Sitnik. 1996. Mangrove Ecology Workshop Manual. Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C.

Foster, A. and T. Gent (1996). Reptiles survey methods: proceedings of seminar held on 7 th of November 1995
at Zoological Society of London’s meeting rooms, Regent’s Park, London: English Nature Science Series No .27

Hayek, L. C. and A. B. Martin (1997) Surveying natural populations, Columbia University Press, New York, 563pp.

Holguin, G., Gonzalez-Zamorano, P., E.de-Bashan, L., Mendoza, R., Amadorand, E., Bashan,

Y. 2006. Mangrove health in an arid environment encroached by urban development a case study. Science of
the Total Environment, 363: 260 –274.

Hooper, D.U, Adair, E.C, Cardinale, B.J., Byrnes, J.E.K, Hungate, B.A. 2012. A global synthesis reveals biodiversity
loss as a major driver of ecosystem change. Nature. 486:105–U129.

Hooper, et al., 2005 Ecological monograms, 75: 3-36. http://sindhforests.gov.pk/mangroves

Indus For All Program (IFAP). 2008. Indus Delta – A Vanishing Ecosystem. WWF-Pakistan, Karachi.

Indus For All Program (IFAP). 2008a. Mangroves of Pakistan WWF- Pakistan, Karachi, pp16. Khan, M. Z., B.
Hussain, S. A. Ghalib, A. Zehra, and N. Mahmood. 2010. Distribution, population status and environmental
impacts on reptiles in Manora, Sandspit, Hawksbay

and Cap Monze areas of Karachi Coast. Canadian Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences. 4 (1): 1053-1071.

Khan, M.Z., Ullah, U., Kanwal, R., Zehra, A. and Zubair, S. 2018. Distribution and status of the vertebrate
biodiversity of Korangi and Phitti Creeks, Karachi coast, Sindh, Pakistan. Int. J. Biol. and Biotech., 15(4): 751-
764.

Lugo, A.E. and S.C. Snedaker, 1974. The Ecology of Mangroves: Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, Vol.
5 (1974), pp. 39-64.

MFF Pakistan .2016. A handbook on Pakistan’s Coastal and Marine Resources. 78pp

Saifullah, S.M. 1997. Management of the Indus Delta Mangrove. In: Coastal Zone Management Imperative for
Maritime Developing Nations. Eds. Haq, B.U. Kluwer Academic Publishers,Netterlands. 333-346.

Kashif Majeed Salik, Muhammad Zia-ur-Rahman Hashmi, Waheed-ulZafar Zahdi and Sadia Ishfaq, 2015.
Ecological Assessment of the Indus Delta in Pakistan: A Desktop Analysis of Environmental Flow Requirements.

Scott, D. A. 1989. A Directory of Asian Wetlands. IUCN, Gland. 295-361.

Tilman, D., Reich, P.B., Knops, J., Wedin, D., Mielke, T. 2001. Diversity and productivity in a long-term grassland
experiment. Science 294:843–845.

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UNESCAP. 1996. Coastal Environmental Management Plan for Pakistan.

Wilkinson, C. 2004. Status of Coral Reefs of the World. Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), Townsville,
Australia.

WWF, Pakistan. 2006. Mangrove Ecosystem of Pakistan, WWF. pp4 www.mangrovesforthefuture.org

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Marine Biodiversity Survey

Introduction

As part of the Delta Blue Carbon (DBC-2) project, an initiative is underway to inventory fish biodiversity within
three creeks, namely Kalka, Aram Dhoro, and Sir Creek of the Indus delta region. This baseline data on fish
biodiversity serves as pre- plantation assessment for future studies, aligning with the project’s primary aim of
massive mangrove plantation in these creeks ahead. The endeavor not only aims to mitigate natural disasters
and climate change impacts but also seeks to enhance fisheries production in the proposed area. Though Indus
Delta is blessed with a network of creeks that gives flourishing environment to numerous aquatic organisms
during early life stages as Juvenile to sub-adult and adult. By comparing three creeks Kalka, Aram dhoro, and Sir
Creek possess relatively low plantation with the creeks falling in Sujawal coastal jurisdiction.

Fish biodiversity

Biodiversity encompasses more than a mere enumeration of organisms, it embodies a complex interplay of
varied life forms across all hierarchical levels, from molecules to ecosystems. Moreover, the term biodiversity
refers to the abundance, variation, and distribution of organisms on all biological levels, including those involving
individuals, species, groups, and environments (Brodeur, et al. 2008; Carmen, et al., 2015). Species richness
(SR), or the number of species or attributes present, is the simplest metric used to represent diversity (Whittaker,
1972), and it remains the most commonly applied (Magurran, 2004). Intuitively, species or trait abundance is
also important for diversity, and the proportional abundance of species can be incorporated into indices
representing diversity (Panhwar et al. 2016). The sustainable growth of natural resources, including recreational
and commercial fisheries, depends on biodiversity. Fisheries resources are essential to the maintenance of
aquatic and terrestrial environments and human life requirements. Therefore, the conservation of fish
populations is unavoidable since many fishermen depend on them for their livelihood. With real threats to
environmental sustainability worldwide, Pakistan’s commitment to international biodiversity conventions
underscores the imperative of monitoring, and sustainably utilizing its rich biological resource

Catch per unit effort (CPUE)

Catch per unit effort (CPUE) serves as a foundation of abundance in fisheries management, particularly in
scenarios where fishery-independent surveys lacking. This statistical tool quantifies the number of fish caught
relative to the fishing effort exerted, providing crucial insight into fish population dynamics.

CPUE derived indices of relative abundance inform fisheries management strategies, facilitating informed
decision-making by policymakers.

Balancing conservation imperatives with economic consideration, effective fisheries management necessitates
the implementation of measure such as catch quotas, gear restrictions and time-area closures to ensure
sustainable utilization while safeguarding both fish stock and the interest of fishermen and consumer alike
(Harley et al. 2001), CPUE is an index to estimate relative abundance of fish populations (Maunder et al., 2006;
Lynch et al., 2012). Fish stock assessment experts use these indices of relative abundance (IRA) that can be
implemented by fisheries managers and policymakers to make justified decisions of how to manage a particular
fishery. It is obligation of the management to design catch quotas, catch limits, license restrictions and
limitations, beside gear restrictions or modifications, and time-area closures without affecting economic losses
fishermen and consumer needs (Maunder et al. 2006).

Study Objectives and Scope

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To conduct a comprehensive assessment of marine biodiversity in Kalka, Aram dhoro and Sir Creek to gather
baseline data

How environmental variables influence abundance and distribution of the species Fisheries potential and an
index of abundance

Evaluate the impact of human activities on the marine ecosystem

Provide recommendation for sustainable management and conservation of the resources

Study Design, Methodology, and Data Analysis

Description of sampling locations

Kalka creek (KC~I) is associated with main Sir Creek is relatively wider to that of the Aram dhoro and Sir Creek
(Fig. 1).

Kalka creek (KC~I)

ST 1: N24°04103, E68°21455 ST 2: N24°00204, E68°204216

Aram dhoro (AD~II)

ST 3: N24°00815, E68°281139 ST 4: N24°02293, E68°297933

Sir Creek (SC~III)

ST 5: N24°04687, E68°32081 ST 6: N24°03079, E68°366006

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Figure A19.15. Sampling locations and description of Kalka, Aram dhoro and Sir Creek

Sample Collection and Laboratory Handling

Fish and shellfish samples were collected from six location on 13 & 16 March 2024 from Kalka, Aram dhoro and
Sir Creek. At each location, two stations were strategically selected to comprehensively cover the entire creek
area. The fish specimens were procured using fixed creek set net (CSN), renowned for its exceptional efficacy in
capturing aquatic biodiversity. Its worth noting that while CSN is highly effective for research purposed, its
commercial utilization remains largely destructive (Fig. 2). The specimens were fixed in icebox and transported
to the fishery biology laboratory, Centre of Excellence in Marine Biology, University of Karachi. Each specimen
was taxonomically identified and enumerated for further analysis.

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Figure A19.16. Creek set net (CSN) a fixed net of varying mesh size net with cod-end 2.5cm knot-to-knot is about
10 meter long and 3-5 meter deep depending on the depth of the creek is openly used in the area

Water Quality Parameters

In situ water quality parameters of temperature, salinity, conductivity, resistivity and TDS were recorded with a
handy Hanna instrument, model-HI98192 made by Romania.

Statistical Analysis

Diversity Indices

Species diversity, richness and evenness were calculated with:

Shannon diversity index “H” can be expressed as Species richness R1=

Individual Rarefaction (IR) or Species Richness

IR can be simply called as quick look counter (QLC) that provide an insight into species richness by counting
effects of sample size on the number of species encountered in this study. This is reasonable approach that
seeks to explore biodiversity patterns in the given data sets. Generally, IR curves grow swiftly initially in relation
to the frequency of species and curve plateau as rarest species encountered. The rarefaction was initially
developed by the Howard (1968) for biodiversity analysis of marine benthic ecosystems.

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Evenness

Simpson

Whereas; S=number of species; ni= number of individuals of a species; N=number of individuals of all species
and pi=ni/N.

Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA)

HCA is a powerful approach often adopted in ecological and biodiversity studies to categorized similar entities
based on their characteristics either taxonomy or molecular level.

Canonical corresponding analysis (CCA)

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is multivariate approached used to identify and measure the association
among two sets of variables and a way of inferring information from cross-covariance matrices (Wolfgang and
Léopold, 2017). In this study CCA approach was performed to determine association of fish assemblage in three
creeks at six locations. Fish abundance data were squared-root transformation and CCA was performed using
environmental variable to understand composition of ecological communities in creek ecosystem.

Catch per unit effort (CPUE)

Biodiversity monitoring program is an ultimate effort toward sustainability of fisheries resources and ecosystem
health. CPUE is considered as an index of abundance and can be calculated as CPUE =

Goodness-of-fit

The goodness-of-fit for CPUE was tested with Coefficient of variation (CV) which is relative measure of dispersion
among two or more set of data. Lower CV value is considered more consistent in the performance and can be
calculated as . The standard error (SE) is a statistical approach

that reveals how accurately sample data represents the whole population and can be written as (Sigma
stands for SD and “n” number of samples. In case where multiple samples are collected, the mean of each
sample may vary slightly from the other, creating a spread among the variable this spread is more often
measured as the SE, accounting for the differences between the means across the datasets.

Results

Finfish species N Finfish species N Finfish species N

Acanthopagrus arabicus 6 Kaperangus microlepis 1 Sorsogona prionota 10

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Acanthopagrus berda 18 Lagocephalus 6 Scatophagus argus 10

spadiceus

Acanthopagrus sheim 8 lepturacanthus savala 27 Sillago indica 37

Ambasis nalua 17 Ilisha megoloptera 46 Sillago sihama 10

Ambasis vachelli 366 Johnius carutta 49 Scides sena 30

Aulopareia ocellata 30 Johinus carouna 4 Thryssa dayi 62

Argyrosomus amoyensis 13 Leioognathus equula 7 Thryssa dussumieri 20

Boleopthalmus dussumieri 152 Lepturacanthus savala 24 Thryssa hamiltonii 64

Brachirus orientalis 12 Liza persica 16 Trypauchen vagina 12

Chelon macrolepis 21 Liza subviridis 24 Valamguil seheli 12

Chelon persica 9 Moolgarda cunnesius 15 Shellfish species N

Congresox talabonoides 4 Moolgarda speigleri 12

Cynoglossus abbreviatus 8 Nuchequula blochii 64 Macrobranchium 35

malcomsonii

Macrobranchium
resenbergii
Cynoglossus arel 9 Nuchequula flavaxilla 22 57

Cynoglossus dubius 3 Nemaetolosa arabica 4 Macrophthalmus 1

convexus

Daysciaena albida 2 Nemaetolosa nasus 10 Matuta planipes 11

Drepane punctata 2 Netuma bilineata 73 Metapenaeus 67

monoceros

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Ellochelon vaigiensis 2 Nuchequula blochii 42 Metapenaeus stebbingi 106

Eleutheronema 7 Pisodonophis boro 1 Nerocila acuminate 4

tetradactylum

Escualosa thoracata 27 Periopthalamus 1 Parapenaeopsis 331

variablis sculptilis

Harpadon neherus 7 Pomadasys kaakan 1 Parapenaeopsis stylifera 483

Hilsa kelee 25 Pomadasys argenteus 2 Penaeus indicus 280

Sousa plumbea (dolphin) 15 Sardinella sindensis 34 penaeus marguiensis 80

Hyporhamphus xanthopterus 6 Sardinella gibbosea 36 Penaeus penicillatus 7

Sardinella longiceps 35 Sepiella inermis 176

Squilla empusa 26

Ashtoret lunaris 6

Xiphonectes 1
pulchricristatus

Table A19.15. List of the fish and shellfish species sampled from six locations of Kalka, Aram Dhoro and Sir
Creek

Individual Rarefaction (IR) for Finfish Species Richness

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Quick look counter (QLC) or individual rarefaction curve reveals that glassfish, Ambasis vachelli (N= 366) which
was most abundant species followed a famous mudskipper, Boleophthalmus dusseimeiri by among all finfish
species. Generally, IR curves grow swiftly initially in relation to the frequency of species and curve leveled with
rarest species in the data (Figure A19.17).

Figure A19.17. Individual rarefaction counter established for finfish species encountered in this study.

Individual Rarefaction (IR) for Shellfish Species Richness

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IR established separately for shellfish species reveals that five species of shrimps Pst, Pin, Msc, Mst and Sin
dominated entire shellfish population (see species abbreviations in table 1). The individuals loaded in the curve
define the species richness with a confidence interval of each provided in the curve (Figure A19.18).

Figure A19.18. Individual rarefaction counter established for shellfish species encountered in this study.

Station wise individual details of finfish species and four diversity indices are provided. Bolded values are higher
value in each indice. Shannon H index at station

2 reveals higher species diversity whereas most of the stations show moderate diversity <3 values (Table
A19.16).

Diversity indices ST1 ST2 ST3 ST4 ST5 ST6

Individuals 520 395 293 174 68 143

Dominance (D) 0.290 0.068 0.080 0.123 0.153 0.073

Simpson (1-D) 0.710 0.932 0.920 0.878 0.847 0.927

Shannon (H) 1.999 3.032 2.904 2.293 2.128 2.947

Evenness (e^H/S) 0.351 0.592 0.507 0.762 0.764 0.706

Table A19.16. Descriptive statistics of diversity indices calculated for fish species encountered in this study

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The dandrogram indicate that three main clusters sharing among six sampling locations. In a way likely location
2, 3 and 4 sharing similar cluster whereas 4 share single cluster and 6 and 5 share same cluster. The distance
of similarity in % is lower than 10% (Fig. 5).

Figure A19.19. Hierarchical clustering (UPGMA) based on sampling stations and relative abundance of the
species encountered in this study.

Description of Dandrogram

The dandrogram was created for finfish species using a final portion of 6 clusters, which occurs at a similarity
level of approximately below 10 distance and the main 3 clusters occurs at a level of approximately 15 to 25.
The first cluster (far left) is composed of 11 species, which occurs at the level of above 5 distances. The species
in row Lagocephalus spadiceus, Nuchequula flavaxilla, Sardinella gibbosea, Valamguil seheli, Scatophagus
argus, Sardinella longiceps, Sardinella sindensis, Ambasis vachelli, Aulopareia ocellata, Sillago indica and Liza
persica. The 2nd cluster directly to the right is composed 9 species which occurs at a level of above 5 distance,
the species in cluster Pomadasys argenteus, Thryssa dayi, Hyporhamphus xanthopterus, Cynoglossus dubius,
Moolgarda speigleri, Sorsogona prionota, Johnius carutta, Sillago sihama and Lepturacanthus savala. The 3rd
cluster is composed of 7 species including Acanthopagrus arabicus, Cynoglossus arel, Congresox talabonoides,
Johinus carouna, Argyrosomus amoyensis, Acanthopagrus sheim, Acanthopagrus berda occurs at a level of
approximately below 5% distance. The 4th clusters comprises of 7 species Daysciaena albida, Ellochelon
vaigiensis, Thryssa hamiltonii, Escualosa thoracata, Leioognathus equula, Scides sena, and Netuma bilineata.
The 5th cluster is composed of 2 species Lepturacanthus savala and Sousa plumbea merely. Sixth cluster which
are far right composed of 23 species, which occurs at a level of below 10 distance, in the row the species
Periopthalamus variablis, Pomadasys kaakan, Chelon macrolepis, Nemaetolosa arabica, Pisodonophis boro,

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Moolgarda cunnesius, Kaperangus macrolepis, Eleutheronema tetradactylum, Harpadon neherus, Ilisha

megaloptera, Liza subviridis, Ambasis nalua, Trypauchen vagina, Chelon persica, Nemaetolosa nasus,

Nuchequula blochi, Brachirus orientalis, Cynoglossus abbreviates, Drepane punctata, Hilsa kelee,
Boleopthalmus dussumieri, Thryssa dussumieri (Figure A19.20)

Figure A19.20. Hierarchical cluster (UPGMA) depicting six clusters established for finfish species sampled in this
study

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Figure A19.21. Bi-plot ordination plot illustrating and showing the relationship among six sampling locations
represented by each fish species where percentage similarity was <20.

Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was established using fifty nine finfish species and five environmental
variables of temperature, salinity, TDS, conductivity and resistivity (density). The bi-plot is divided into four
respective group to understand how environmental variable related with fish species abundance and
distribution. Station 4 (group 1) reveals no relationship with any environmental variable. Group II comprises of
station 5 including As, Aa, Ca1, Ab, Nbi, Av, Vs, Sg, Ls and Nf are positively correlated with resistivity (seawater
density). Group III comprises of the highest fish species is negatively correlated with temperature, salinity and
TDS their relationship an obvious abrupt habitat change in the creek ecosystem. Group V comprises of Ao, Lp,
Th, Da, Ss and SI and Sar fish species that does not showed any relationship with environmental variables (Figure
A19.21).

Shellfish Results

Overall number of individuals of shellfish including shrimps, lobsters, crabs and squids are presented in Table
1. Three species of the crabs including yellow crab Ashtoret lunaris, Xiphonectes pulchricristatus,
Macrophthalmus convexus were not included in diversity calculation owing to delayed identification. However
these are included in description.

Indices ST1 ST2 ST3 ST4 ST5 ST6

Individuals 29 23 305 58 717 590

Dominance (D) 0.93 0.46 0.37 0.31 0.44 0.18

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Simpson (1-D) 0.07 0.54 0.63 0.69 0.56 0.82

Shannon (H) 0.17 0.93 1.18 1.32 0.92 1.79

Evenness (e^H/S) 0.59 0.85 0.54 0.75 0.63 0.75

Table A19.17. Descriptive statistics of the diversity indices calculated for shellfish species excluding three
species of crabs. The highest values are bolded.

Hierarchical Cluster Established for Shellfish Species

The dandrogram indicating three main cluster sharing among six sampling locations. Location 2, 3 and 4 sharing
similar cluster whereas 4 share single cluster and 6 and 5 share same cluster. The distance of similarity in % is
lower than 10%. The dendrogram indicating four main cluster sharing among at a level of below 10 distances.
The 1st cluster composed of 6 species which occurs at a level of below 5 distances, in the row the species
Macrophthalmus convexus, Nerocila acuminate, Penaeus penicillatus, Matuta planipes, Squilla empusa, and
Macrobranchium malcomsonii. The 2nd cluster composed of 4 species which also occurs at a level of below 5
distance, in this cluster the species Macrobranchium resenbergii, Metapenaeus monoceros, Metapenaeus
stebbingi, penaeus marguiensis. The 3rd cluster is composed of 2 species Sepiella inermis and Penaeus indicus,
which occurs at a level of above 5 distances. The 4th cluster is composed of 2 species Parapenaeopsis sculptilis
and Parapenaeopsis stylifera, which occurs at a level of below 5 distances (Figure A19.22).

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Figure A19.22. Hierarchical cluster (UPGMA) depicting species relationship in six sampling locations

CCA Analysis

CCA has ability to determine correlation of abundance of shellfish species towards different environmental
variables and sampling locations (Figure A19.23). The water quality parameters TDS and EC showed higher
correlation with the CCA axes at station 4.

Only two species Metapenaeus stebbingi and Macrobranchium malcomsonii sampled at station 5 showed no
relationship with environmental variables and can be triggered by the availability of food or habitat
characteristics. Six species Penaeus penicillatus, Sepiella inermis, Squilla empusa, Macrophthalmus convexus
and Penaeus indicus sampled at 1, 2 and 3 stations were associated negatively with seawater resistivity.
However, temperature and salinity showed positive correlation with Metapenaeus stebbingi, Nerocila acuminate,
Macrobranchium rosenbergii and Penaeus marguiensis can be interpreted from the CCA axes (Figure A19.23).

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Figure A19.23. Bi-plot ordination among first two components of the CCA analysis representing fish diversity in
sampled from six stations.

Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE)

Pooled data of finfish and shellfish was used to estimate CPUE. The catch was in kilograms and effort was time.
The time was based on the periodic rise and fall of the tide. Moreover, for further validation CPUE outputs were
tested for goodness-of-fit including standard deviation 10.804, mean 8.36, CV 1.292, SE 4.41, Kurtosis 5.230
of the given samples data (Figure A19.24).

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Figure A19.24. Catch (kgs) and catch per unit effort (kg/hr) estimated from six sampling stations in Kalka, Aram
dhoro and Sir Creek of the Indus Delta region. A consistent effort depending on the periodic rise and fall of the
tides (in hours) was considered as “effort”.

Discussion

Despite the limited data collected during two surveys, efforts were made to generate reasonable estimates in
order to establish baseline information on the biodiversity of three creeks falling within the jurisdiction of the
Delta Blue Carbon 2 project. Fish biodiversity research frequently unveils the variability of fish species present
in a particular area. It is essential to document the current fish population, along with the state of its ecosystem
and biodiversity, to adapt to the changing conditions. Generally, susceptibility of different fish species varies in
response to anthropogenic interference, natural disasters, and environmental deterioration (Fialho, et al. 2008;
Cunico, et al. 2012; Rowe, et al., 2009).

Biodiversity

A diversity index is a mathematical measure of species diversity in a community. Using multiple diversity indices
provides a more comprehensive understanding of the diversity present in a system or dataset. Each index has
its strengths and limitation, so using multiple indices helps to account for these variations and provides a more
well-rounded assessment of biodiversity. Additionally, comparing results from different indices can reveal
patterns and trends that may not be apparent when using only one index. These biodiversity indices are
commonly used because it’s a quick way to differentiate between different location, ecosystem or population of
organism. It’s a calculation of the total number of species in a particular place. Overall, using multiple diversity
indices improves the robustness and reliability of diversity assessments. Hosokawa, et al., 2021; Odgson, 2019;
Begon, et al., 1996; Magurran,et al.,1998; Magurran, et al., 1988;Siemann, et al., 1997).

The Shannon index generally assumed that all species are represented through a sample and species listed in
the data randomly sampled. Moreover, this index perceives species abundance and equality in an ecological
community. H index value range 0-3 in case of index value fall between 0-1 means low diversity and 1-3 value
moderate diversity whereas >3 value is high diversity.

Simpson dominance index (D) is adopted to understand whether the specific fisheries species is a priority in a
particular ecosystem, therefore its used in the present study is of great concern. Simpson dominance index (D)
is adopted to understand whether the specific fisheries species is a priority in a particular ecosystem, therefore
its used in the present study is of great concern. Simpson index upper and lower value range 0-1 hence near
zero low diversity and near 1 is higher. In case of finfish and shellfish diversity calculated in this study reveals
an inclination toward 1 that seems reasonable diversity in the creek ecosystem.

Cluster Analysis

Hierarchical cluster analysis playing central role biodiversity studies that groups’ similar object or data point into
a cluster based on the characteristics or attributes of the object. The goal hierarchical cluster analysis is to build
a tree diagram, which illustrates the relationship between the clusters at different level of similarity, identifies
discrete groups within multivariate data. In this study clusters similarity and distance among species and stations
are provided to formulate grouping clusters. This approach is useful toward conservation efforts, fisheries
management, and understanding the overall aquatic ecosystems health (Jackson, et al., 2010; Kimes, et al.,
2017; Eduardo, et al., 2018).

CCA Analysis

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The bi-plot is divided into four respective group to understand how environmental variable related with fish
species abundance and distribution. Station 4 (group 1) reveals no relationship with any environmental variable.
Group II comprises of station 5 including As, Aa, Ca1, Ab, Nbi, Av, Vs, Sg, Ls and Nf are positively correlated with
resistivity (seawater density). Group III comprises of the highest fish species is negatively correlated with
temperature, salinity and TDS their relationship an obvious abrupt habitat changes in the creek ecosystem.
Group V comprises of Ao, Lp, Th, Da, Ss and SI and Sar fish species that does not showed any relationship with
environmental variables.

CCA for shellfish species reveals that water quality parameters TDS and EC showed higher correlation with the
CCA axes at station 4. Only two species Metapenaeus stebbingi and Macrobranchium malcomsonii sampled at
station 5 showed no relationship with environmental variables and can be triggered by the availability of food or
habitat characteristics. Six species Penaeus penicillatus, Sepiella inermis, Squilla empusa, Macrophthalmus
convexus and Penaeus indicus sampled at 1, 2 and 3 stations were associated negatively with seawater
resistivity. However, temperature and salinity showed positive correlation with Metapenaeus stebbingi, Nerocila
acuminate, Macrobranchium rosenbergii and Penaeus marguiensis can be interpreted from the CCA axes.

CPUE

Data from each station was used to calculate CPUE. However, reliability of this CPUE based on the limited data
merely two surveys required cautious while interpretation and used of derived estimates. Indices of abundance
based on fishery catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) are important components of many stock assessments, particularly
when fishery-independent surveys are unavailable (Hoyle, et al. 2024). Most fundamental piece of data of fishery
stock assessment is appraisal of relative abundance (Hilborn and Water, 1992). Generally, abundance index is
assumed to be proportional to the fish abundance (Maunder and Punt, 2004). A targeted based CPUE for
multiple species documented (Okamura, et al., 2018)

New Fish Records

In this study has documented two species for the first time in Pakistan. One of these species is the
Thinlipssplitfin, Kaperangus microlepis (Norman, 1935) of the family Synagropidae (Splitfin ocean-basses) which
is typically found in the Eastern Atlantic: from Mauritania to Namibia (Froese and Pauly, 2024). Another species
namely Verilus starnesi was initially described by Yamanoue in 2016 and is known to have a restricted
distribution in the Western Pacific, specifically in New Caledonia. This study marks the first documentation of
both species in Pakistan.

Dolphin sighting

A herd consisting of 10-15 humpback dolphins, known as Sousa plumbea, was observed in the primary Sir Creek
area at station 6.

Future Management Recommendations

The coastal communities in Sujawal and Thatta districts depends solely on fisheries related activities for their
livelihood. Hence, rising awareness among them regarding the detrimental effects of using destructive gear is
crucial. Persistent use of fixed creek set net (CSN) poses a significant threat to aquatic diversity and must be
address urgently. Implementing community-based fisheries management appears to be a promising approach.
Additionally imposing prohibitions during breeding seasons of certain species is inevitable. It is important to note

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that finding of this study are based on limited data, thus requiring careful interpretation and cautious reliance
on derived estimates for reliability.

Ethical Considerations

Fish sampling in this study was conducted in accordance with international animal guidelines ensuring that not
materials related to humans were utilized during the process.

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Appendix 20: SBIA Workshop Design

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Appendix 21: Stakeholder Identification Table

Stakeholders Focal Issue Benefit

Benefiting from
Status Quo

Fuelwood Collectors Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and Free collection of biomass for energy
unsustainable use

Livestock Grazers Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and Free grazing for livestock
unsustainable use

Upstream Dwellers Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and More freshwater available for irrigation
unsustainable use

Money Lenders Poverty and impoverished community well-being High interest rates for loans

Employers Poverty and impoverished community well-being Labor exploitation

Fish Buyers Poverty and impoverished community well-being Bargaining power in purchasing fish

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Stakeholder Focal Issue Negative Impact

Negatively Impacted
by Status Quo

Fishermen Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and Loss of nursery habitats for shrimps and fish, hence loss of
unsustainable use income and livelihoods

Fishermen Poverty and impoverished community well-being Losing income due to lower prices for fish caught, due to lack
of cold storage, fraudulent weighing by purchasers

Fishermen Continued and accelerated wildlife and habitat loss Declining catches
and fisheries degradation

Local Communities as Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and No change to see, study, and understand mangrove forests;
a whole unsustainable use unprepared and not equipped to face climate change and
natural disasters; lost potential for ecotourism development

Local Communities as Poverty and impoverished community well-being Costs to access healthcare and education; poor health
a whole conditions and vulnerability; limited education opportunities;
high infant mortality rate and death at childbirth; lack of
education, skills, and jobs

Local Communities as Continued and accelerated wildlife and habitat loss Loss and continued decline of access to various ecosystem
a whole and fisheries degradation services of mangroves; communities and other stakeholders
lose confidence in the collective ability to protect and
develop the natural resources; human-wildlife conflict;
inability to enjoy nature due to loss of wildlife and
biodiversity resources

Future Generations Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and No change to see, study, and understand mangrove forests;
unsustainable use unprepared and not equipped to face climate change and
natural disasters; lost potential for ecotourism development

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Future Generations Poverty and impoverished community well-being Costs to access healthcare and education; poor health
conditions and vulnerability; limited education opportunities;
high infant mortality rate and death at childbirth; lack of
education, skills, and jobs

Local Authorities Mangrove forest degradation due to unregulated and Unable to collect revenues for various ecosystem services
unsustainable use

Local Authorities Continued and accelerated wildlife and habitat loss Decrease in staff motivation and organizational pride; loss of
and fisheries degradation potential for eco-tourism

Women Poverty and impoverished community well-being High infant mortality rate and death at childbirth; lack of
education, skills, and jobs

Borrowers Poverty and impoverished community well-being Usurious lending and debt traps

Employees Poverty and impoverished community well-being Very low incomes paid to laborers

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