Lecture Notes on

Synoptic Meteorology
Introduction:

The word synoptic is made up of two words i.e. SYN - TOGATHER and OPTIC – VIEW;
THIS MEANS THE VARIOUS MET. ELEMENTS ARE VISULISED TOGATHER AT THE SAME
TIME ALL OVER THE GLOBE.
Thus it is a branch of meteorology in which the plotting of weather elements, its analysis
and the study of the atmosphere is made. These things are performed in order to
understand the behaviour of the atmosphere and to predict the future performance of the
different systems and their movement for the sake of short range forecasting (valid up to
72 hrs). The basic sciences for Synoptic Meteorology are the Dynamics and Physical
meteorology. The basic tools which are required for the study are the weather charts.

Scales of atmospheric Motions

Scale of the weather systems, vary widely in space and time for e.g. formation of dew
in plant leaf, millimetres of dimension & period of few minutes. The variation is from less
than 1 km. to > 1000 km in horizontal, in vertical the variation can be from less than one
meter up to the > 10 kms. The life period of the systems can vary from few minutes to
large number of days. Depending upon these variations the Synoptic systems can be
divided in to the following categories:

1) Microscale 2) Mesoscale 3) Synoptic scale 4) Planetary Scale, OR Macro scale

1) Microscale systems: Horizontal extension is less than one km and time period is few
minutes while vertical extension, upto 10 meters. These systems include formation of
dew or small air eddy currents which are there in very lower levels of the atmosphere.
Similarly smokes generated by industries are also the examples of this scale. To
study these microscale systems we should have observations at every few meters and
at the intervals of few minutes or the continuous observations. Forecast- short range-
very short.
 2) Mesoscale systems: Horizontal extension is from 1 km to 100 km. Vertical extension
is from 1 to 10 kms time is about 1 day or little more. Examples are Thunderstorms
(Group of convective clouds, tornado, dust storm, squall lines, fog, Land and see
breeze. To study this weather phenomenon the observations should be available at
every 10 kms and at the interval of every half an hour. Forecast- short range-very
short. Most of the meteorological services do not study these Micro and Mesoscale
Phenomenon as a routine basis. As this much close network of observatories is not
available. These systems may studied in detail form of special project.

3) Synoptic Scale : Horizontal extension i.e. diameter of this scale systems is about 100
to 1000 kms and vertical extension is about 10 km. Time scale is few days examples
for this scale of systems are low pressure areas, High pressure areas, Depressions,
Cyclonic storms, troughs and ridges etc. To study Synoptic scale motions we should
have surface observations at every 150 kms and upper air observations at every 300
kms. Interval for surface observations is every 3 hrs., and for upper air observations is
every 12 hrs. Forecast- (Short range, Medium range.)

4) Planetary scale: This scale is also known as Macro scale. Horizontal scale is > 1000
kms and vertical scale is > 10 kms. Time scale is large number of days. These types
of systems give rise to abnormalities in precipitation and in temperatures over a large
region. Example for this scale is Global circulation, Blocking highs, I.T.C.Z.,
Monsoon trough. To study this phenomenon Synoptic scale network is sufficient. But
along this, the meteorological rocket sonde observations are also used to study
planetary scale observations for a large number of days. Forecast-Long Range
Forecast.

Synoptic Observations:

First of all the main and important tool for studying the atmosphere is the observations of
different elements. These observations are then plotted on the different type of charts and
the analysis of these charts will help in understanding the three dimensional picture of the
various systems or atmosphere. To study the atmosphere some important variables are
there. They are:

1) Pressure 2) Temperature3) Water vapour4) Wind

First three variables are the scalar quantities are called as the Physical variables. The last
one wind is a vector quantity which consists of two parts its direction and speed and is
called as Kinematics variable. These all properties are continuous in space and time and
they are called as the Field Variables.
There are various types of observations which are used to study different Synoptic
systems:

1) Surface Observations

i) Land stations ii) Sea stations

Fixed ocean vessels fixed Mobile ships Automatic ship station
weather ships which carry or BUOYS
regular surface & UA
observations

2) Upper air observations at various

levels
i) Land stations ii) Sea stations

The types of observations are as follows:

1) Pilot Balloon 2) Radio wind 3) Radio sonde

(Wind) (Wind) (Temperature, Humidity, Wind and height)
and GPS based observations.

3) Satellite Observation(Polar orbiting and Geostationary)

Clouds ( OLR ) Wind Temperatures,(SST and atmospheric sounding)

4) Aircraft Observation

i) Commercial or the military frights ii) Reconnaissance flights

(Wind, Temp. & Pressure) (all types of observations)

5. Radar Observations :

All these observations are plotted on the different types of synoptic charts. viz.
Synoptic Charts

1) Surface charts
2) Pilot charts
3) Auxiliary charts - change charts
4) Constant pressure charts (C.P. Charts)
5) Cross section charts,
6) Vertical time section,
7) Vertical cross section
8) Te-phi-gram
9) Radar echo charts

Other charts

Coverage of these charts depends upon the area for which the forecast is to be given. They
are:

1) Regional charts
2) National charts
3) Extended charts - used particularly at aerodromes where the long route forecast is
to be issued.
4) Hemispherical charts
5) Global charts - Mostly they are used at World Meteorological centres

Synoptic Observations

Now we will see the standard hours of observations and the chart by chart in detail
standard hours of observations for Surface observations.

00, 06, 12 & 18 UTC is standard hrs. for International.

03, 09, 15 & 21 UTC is Intermediate hrs.
But in India, main synoptic hrs. are 03 and 12 UTC.
For upper air - 00, 06, 12 & 18 main International times.
But in India for RS and RW - 00 and 12 UTC and
for pilot Balloon - 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.
Analysis of Weather Charts

Surface chart:

Various elements are plotted on this chart. The main elements are mean sea level
pressure, surface wind (its direction and speed both), horizontal visibility, dry bulb and dew
point temperatures, present and past weather, amount and type of cloud, height of low cloud,
and rainfall. In addition to this for coastal stations wind wave and swell wave observations
are plotted and for ships the sea surface temperature is also plotted in addition to wind wave
and swell wave. The analysis done on this chart is the Isobaric analysis. Isobar (lines passing
through equal pressure values, lines of equal pressures values) are drawn on this chart.
Analysis is nothing but the pictorial representation of the variables. Isobaric analysis is a
scalar analysis. Isobar is an isoline of pressure.The isoline of temperature is isotherm, of wind
speed is isotach, of rain is isohyte, of mixing ratio is isohygric, of density is isophyenic and if
it is of equal height on CP chart is contours.

Analysis on the surface chart

Following are some points which should be kept in mind while doing the Isobaric
analysis. Analysis of any scalar value.

1) No isoline cuts or breaks abruptly any where in between except at the limit of chart i.e.
Isobars should not terminate any where in between the chart. Either you should draw the
closed curves or they should be drawn from one end of the chart to the other end.

2) No two isobars isolines can pass through one point or they do not intersect each other or
they should not fork. (i.e. break in to two).

3) Each isobar divides the field of variable in to two regions one side the values are higher
than the isobar value and on the other side the value should be less than the isobar value.

4) Along the isobar the value of pressure does not change.

By drawing the isobars on surface chart we can delineate the closed low pressure
areas, closed high pressure areas, trough and ridges. Apart from pressure systems it provides
the useful tool to demark the discontinuity lines in dew point we can infer at a glance the past
and present weather and the distribution of clouds (by shading the weather and important
clouds by different colour after analysis. Now we can see how the lows, highs, troughs &
ridges will look like.
Low Pressure Area :

L L

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

The shape of the closed low pressure area is shown in figure. The shape of the isobars
need not be circular. The pressure at the centre of the low is the lowest one. As we move
away from the centre the pressure increases in all the directions. The winds around the low
pressure area blow in anticlockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere while in the
Southern Hemisphere opposite are the case the winds blow in a clockwise direction. The low
pressure area is associated with positive vorticity, convergence and upward motion of the air.
In the low usually clouds and rainfall are present. On the charts it is marked as "L" in red
colour pencil. Centre of the low pressure is a singular point.

High Pressure Area:

High pressure area is a closed pressure system. The pressure at the centre of the high
pressure is highest and as we go away from centre the pressure decreases in all the directions.

H H

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

The isobars around the high pressure are also need not be circular one. The winds
around the high pressure turn in the clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere and in the
southern hemisphere opposite case is there, they will blow in anticlockwise direction. The
high pressure area is associated with negative vorticity, divergence and down ward motion of
the air. i.e. subsidence. Generally the high pressure areas are cloud free and fair weather.
Near the centre the winds are light High pressure area on surface is marked as "H" in blue
colour pencil. As low centre, centre of the High pressure is also a singular point.
Trough :

Trough is also a low pressure system but it is not a closed isobaric system. It is a line
along which the direction of winds changes abruptly. From this trough line if one observes
the pressures then it will increase on both the sides of this line. It is a line which may need
not be a straight but can be curved also. The orientation of this line may be north-south
oriented as well as east-west oriented also. Even it can be oriented in any direction. The
winds are changing in the anticlockwise fashion in northern hemisphere. The positive
vorticity, convergence is associated with trough and hence the clouding and precipitation are
also associate as the weather along the trough. The trough on the chart is shown as a dotted
line in red pencil.

Ridge:

Ridge is a high pressure system but not a closed isobar. It is also a line along which
the direction of winds changes abruptly. From this ridge line if one observes the pressures
then it will decrease on both the sides of this line. Just like the trough this line also may not
be straight but can be curved also. The orientation of this line may also be east-west or in the
north-south direction. It is also the line along which the winds turn abruptly. The winds are
changing in clockwise direction along ridge in northern hemisphere. The negative vorticity
and divergence are associated with ridge and hence fair and cloudless weather is associated
along the ridge. The ridge on the chart is shown as a wavy line as above or zigzag line in
blue colour pencil.
COL Region - On surface chart :

It is a region of intersection between a trough line and a ridge line and a region
between two high pressure areas and two low pressure areas. Pressure gradient gradually
changes and reverse the direction across a COL. Near the centre of the region the pressure
gradient is very weak (In the Col area winds are very weak light and variable. Normally
pressure systems remain stationery in the COL region.)

2.4.2 Auxiliary chart or change chart :

Min. / Max. Temp. Min. / Max. Temp.

Min. / Max. Temp.
Past weather change for 24 hrs. departure from normal
Dew pt. temp. change Sat. cloud imagery Direction of cloud
Station level pressure change for 24 hrs. Mean sea level pressure departure from
P P normal
24 24

This chart is prepared twice daily for main synoptic hrs. for India 03 UTC and 12
UTC In this chart left hand side corner past weather is plotted past weather means amount of
rainfall - if it is a 12 UTC chart rainfall and weather from morning 03 UTC is plotted and if it
is a 03 UTC chart rainfall & weather from previous days 03 UTC is plotted 24 hrs. pressure
change and 24 hrs. departure from normal is plotted. Dew point change for 24 hrs., satellite
cloud imagery and direction of low clouds are plotted. And on the 3 charts above at 03 UTC
chart min. temp., Min. temp change 24 hrs. and departure of min. temp. from normal is
plotted and on 12 UTC chart all these things for max. temperature is plotted.

On the change charts isolines are drawn - temperature isotherms and for change and
departure of pressure and temps. also isolines are drawn.
 The change charts gives the following information.

4.2.1. The past weather and amount of rainfall realised over the country or any
particulararea.
4.2.2. Max. and Min temperature distribution and their changes during 24 hrs.
4.2.3. Identify the areas of heat wave and cold wave conditions.
4.2.4. Identify the areas of systematic increases decrease of moisture which can
help intemperature forecasting.
4.2.5. Identify the isobaric field and movement of the systems.
4.2.6. Identify the intensity of pressure system from pressure departures from normal.

Pilot chart:

This chart is a constant height chart. The wind are plotted at specific height.
On this chart, the observations obtained through pilot balloon Radio theodolite and
Radar are plotted. The observations are plotted at 0.3 km, 0.6 km, 0.9 km, 1.5 km.
(850 hPa), 2.1 km, 3.1 km (700 hPa), 3.6 km, 4.5 km, 5.8 km (500 hPa), 7.6
km(400hPa), 9.0 km (300 hPa), 10.5 km(250hPa), 12.0 km (200 hPa), 14.1. km, 16.0
km (100 hPa) are plotted. This chart now a days plotted in two parts in weather
section, Pune. In addition to these levels maximum winds, tropopause height and the
wind at 925 meter level are plotted in W.S., Pune. On this chart the streamlines and
Isotach analysis is done as the wind is the vector quantity and consists of two parts:

4.2.6.i) Direction (streamlines - vector analysis) ii)

Speed (Isotach ).

In practice the streamlines can be converging, diverging, cyclonic or

anticyclonic circulation etc.

Streamlines can be drawn by two methods:

4.2.6.i.1) Direct - free hand method

4.2.6.i.2) Isogon method.

First, for direction (vector analysis) - actually the lines of equal direction are
Isogons. But in practice, it is very difficult to draw Isogons and again they don't give
the true picture of the flow of the wind motion and to draw the Isogon is very
laborious and time consuming work. In actual practice, to represent the wind
direction the streamlines are drawn by free hand method. Streamlines analysis is also
known as a kinematics analysis (analysis wind vector).
Streamline: - It is a line which is everywhere tangential to the instantaneous wind
vector.

It is a flow pattern of wind.

Some of the basic characteristics of streamlines are

1) There can't be a flow across the streamline.

2) Streamline spacing varies inversely with velocity of flow. The relatively
narrow packing indicates relatively higher speeds.
3) Streamlines do not cross.
4) Streamline can start in between the chart or again it can be break also in
between.
5) Streamlines can converge or diverge.

PATTERNS OF STREAM LINES

1) Pure translation : It is the field pure translation. The stream lines are parallel
straight lines. In this case any particle kept in the field moves by the wind along
with the streamline, then the movement is called as translation.

2) Pure Rotation : Streamlines will be concentric circles with common centre with
different radii will contribute in the field of rotation. This field can be -
i) Cyclonic rotation ii) Anticyclonic rotation.
Thus any particle or parcel of air will rotate above the centre.
3) Pure Divergence/Convergence :

Divergence (Expansion):- A set of straight streamlines which are originating from

a single one point. Then it is called as a field of divergence.

Convergence (Contraction):- A set of straight streamlines which are meeting at a

single point is called as field of convergence. These two fields are very important in
the meteorology. A air parcel in divergence field will be uniformly pull in all the
directions, so the area of air parcel will increase and the areal expansion will take
place. Similarly under convergence for the areal parcel, contraction will take place.
The convergence and divergence is two dimensional field but the air parcel is three
dimensional. The convergence and air contraction will make the air ascent. For
clouds and rain formation air ascent is required.
4) Pure Deformation :- Deformation is a field in which a set of streamlines which are
Hyperbolic in shape. If you place a air parcel in middle then the air parcel will be
subjected to pushing on two parallel sides and pulling on two other parallel sides.
In this case the square air parcel will become rectangle. and the form of air parcel
will changed. Thus the air parcel will deformed therefore the field is called as field
of deformation. In this case the area of air parcel will remain the same.
These four fields are pure fields of stream lines. In practice wind field is
combination of such two or more fields.

Converge : Two or more streamlines can come together and then they will flow as
One streamline lines.

Diverge : One streamline can fork and become three or four ones.
 By drawing streamline analysis we can locate cyclonic and anticyclonic
circulations, Trough, Ridge and COL Region. A cyclonic circulation is one in which
the winds are changing in the anticlockwise direction in northern hemisphere and the
cyclonic circulation will have inflow of the winds.
In anticyclonic circulation, the winds are changing in a clockwise direction in
the Northern Hemisphere and it will have always outflow of winds. Cyclonic and
anticyclonic circulations are nothing but the reflection of low pressure area and high
pressure area on the surface chart respectively. By streamlines we can identify the
vertical extent of the pressure system and its tilt along with the height ( e.g. the
monsoon depression tilt south or south-westwards with height). Along with cyclonic
or anticyclonic circulations we can identify the Trough and Ridges also in the wind
field.

Cyclonic circulation in Northern Hemisphere :

Anticyclonic circulation in Northern Hemisphere :

In Southern Hemisphere :

Trough in westerlies and ridges in westerlies in Northern Hemisphere

(mid and upper tropospheric westerlies) :

Troughs and ridges in Easterly regime ( mostly low level Easterlies) :

COL region on upper air charts:

It is a region of intersection between a trough line and a ridge line or a region

between two cyclonic and two anticyclonic circulations. (In the Col area winds are
very weak light and variable. Normally pressure systems remain stationery in the
COL region.)

As already explained, we have to do two types of analysis on pilot chart.

Streamlines the vector analysis we have already seen, now we have to see other
analysis, the wind speed analysis. It is a normal scalar analysis of lines of equal wind
speeds i.e. Isotach analysis. This is normally done on the charts of higher levels i.e.
levels 5.8 kms & above that level. This helps in identifying the areas of maximum
winds, Jet streams etc.

Constant Pressure Charts: These charts are plotted with the observations which are
obtained from Radio-sonde observation. They are plotted for the standard isobaric level
viz. 850,700, 500, 300, 250, 200, 150, and 100 hPa levels. The elements plotted on this
chart are:

1) Height in gpm (geopotential meter)

2) Wind direction and Speed.
3) Dry Bulb Temperature
4) Dew point Temperature

These charts are prepared twice daily at 00 UTC and 12 UTC (They are prepared now
a days in INOSHAC). The analysis done on this chart.
1) Constant height lines are drawn and they are called as countour lines - The countour
analysis is also a scalar analysis just like the Isobars on surface charts.
2) Isotherms are drawn for temperatures.
3) On higher level charts Isotachs for wind speed.
Advantages of Constant Pressure chart.

1) Computation of thickness and thermal wind between two pressure levels - Thermal
wind is a useful too in weather forecasting.
2) Dynamical study of location and analysis of the Jet stream. Jet streams are closely
related to the thickness lines.
3) Dynamical study of vertical extent, movement and characteristics of pressure systems.
The movement of low and Depressions and storms and their strengthening or
weakening is controlled by thickness lines which in turn depends upon the temperature
field. Height difference between two layers is called as the thickness. Thickness,
Thermal winds and temperatures are inter-related.

Vertical Time Section Chart:

So far, whatever charts we have studied, on those charts the time factor and the
level factor was constant and on all over the charts the different stations were plotted.
But in this vertical time section chart the various data of only one station, for number of
days and for number of levels are plotted. This is prepared for the stations which are
having Radio-sonde data. The elements plotted are: i) Wind (direction and speed) ii)
Height iii) Temperature (dry bulb) iv) Moisture (mixing ratio) v) Tropopause and vi)
Maximum wind. On x axis the date and time is plotted and on the y axis the above data
is plotted for the various standard levels and down below the surface observation is
plotted. Purpose for making this chart is to study the systems moving in the atmosphere.
In the area of w westerly wind field the systems can move from west to east for e.g. W.D.
or troughs in mid and upper tropospheric westerlies in winter. For this type of systems
the time section is plotted from east to west.
 Some systems especially over peninsular India during past monsoon and winter
they move from east to west.For this the time section is plotted from west to east systems
for e.g. are easterly waves, trough of lows etc. This chart helps in locating
movement of troughs and ridges over the station. On this chart the analysis is done for
temperature (Isotherms) wind speed (Isotachs) and mixing ration (Isohygric) lines.
Thus with help of this the moving system can be seen and it helps in forecasting
of weather in down stream systems with the help of this chart.
Vertical time section chart clearly shows the passage, depth and intensity of
weather systems particulars station. This chart provides the information regarding
intensity, depth, tilt, rate of movement and possibility of intensification or weakening of
pressure systems and associated changes in the wind field. We can locate

i) Vertical fluctuations in the moisture context on different days

ii) Fluctuation in maximum wind level.

This chart also helps in keeping continuity from chart to chart. This is very
helpful at the time of advance of monsoon over Kerala.
Vertical Cross Section Chart: - In this chart again the time is constant but the different
stations are plotted on this type of chart.

1) Cross section along particular longitude, longitudinal or meridional cross section.

2) Cross section along particular latitude, latitudinal cross section.

W
Thermal wind : It is a pure imaginary wind and arise due to temperature difference in
two levels. Thermal wind can be defined as the vectorial difference between the higher
level geostropic wind and the lower level geostropic wind. If vg1 and vg2 represent the
lower level and upper level geostropic winds respectively then the thermal wind at a
station between the two levels is given by Vt = Vg2 - Vg1

Thermal wind in the Northern Hemisphere blows keeping low (cold)

temperatures and low thickness values to its left and high (warm) temperatures and high
thickness values to its right.

Geostrophic wind : There are three different forces which are acting on moving air a
wind.
1) Coriolis force (due to rotation of earth).
2) Frictional force (upto about 1 km of height).
3) Pressure gradient force (acts due to high and low pressure area from high to low).

Let us consider the frictional force is negligible and the magnitude of the pressure
gradient force and the Coriolis force is exactly equal. i.e. the pressure gradient force will
prevent the deflection of wind due to Coriolis force either to the right or to the left. Then
this flow is known as the geostrophic flow and the wind is known as a geostrophic wind.

Geostrophic Flow in N. H. Geostrophic Flow in S. H.

Coriolis force deflects the wind to the right in the northern hemisphere and to the
left in southern hemisphere.
Thermal wind continuation from last page :
Western disturbance and its structure and associated weather, Waves in
mid-latitude Westerlies.

Before starting the discussion of above mentioned topics, primarily related to winter
season of Indian region, it is pertinent to develop some background of tropical
Synoptic meteorology- as outlined below,
0
Tropical region is a area in between Tropic of cancer (23 1/2 N) and Tropic of
0
Capricorn (23 1/2 S). In this topic the study of the systems in tropics is done. Tropics
are bounded by two sub-tropical highs one in the northern Hemisphere and one in the
southern Hemisphere these are called as sub tropical highs.

Idealised Average M.S.L. Circulation Distribution of pressure or wind over globe :

In the general circulation we have got the pressure belts and wind belts.

Actually these pressure and wind belts are shifting north and southwards as per
the revolution of earth around the sun. The two extreme positions occur in January and
July.

Sub -Tropical Highs : Sub tropical anticyclones are the sub-tropical high pressure belts
0 0
which are located between 25 to 35 in both northern and southern hemisphere.
1) They will move more pole ward in summer hemisphere and more equatorward in
winter hemisphere. 2) The position and intensity also changes due to the differential
heating between land and sea. 3) They are more intense in winter months than in the
summer months. 4) In the winter months they are located over continental regions and in
summer month they are over oceans. (Main reason for all these things is the location of
sun and the land areas cool and become warm more rapidly than the sea areas.
Trade winds and Trade wind Inversion :

The winds blowing from sub-tropical high area towards the equatorial regions in
both in the northern and southern hemisphere are known as the trade winds. They are NE
trades in the northern hemisphere and are SE trades in the southern hemisphere. These
winds are originating from sub-tropical high and move towards the equator. (In absence
of Coriolis force the winds will be N ly in northern hemisphere and S ly in southern
hemisphere but as the Coriolis force deflects the winds to right in the northern
hemisphere and deflects the winds to left in the southern hemisphere the winds will
become NE ly in northern hemisphere and SE ly in southern hemisphere).

Normally the trade winds blow from the directions stated above but sometimes
the direction and speed vary from time to time abide from place to place due to local
effects due to the underlying surface, differences in pressure gradients and due to Coriolis
force.

The trade winds generally develop due to the subsidence in the sub-tropical high
pressure area they are associated with inversion. The trade winds are generally noted for
their persistence and steadiness over the oceanic areas they are characterised by cumulus
clouds with base at about 1 kilometre and tops at about 2 kms. or so. The restricted cloud
development and generally fine weather sometimes associated with trade winds is linked
with the trade wind inversion. Subsidence in the high pressure belt produces the
inversion. However as the air moves equator ward and westwards towards the equatorial
trough, the trade wind inversion begins to weaken and its base become higher. Vertical
cloud development then increases, as the instability extends to greater latitudes.
Precipitation becomes heavier and more frequent in the vicinity of the equatorial trough.
Cumulus clouds generally form upto the base of the inversion. (Inversion means the
sharp increase in temperature and decrease in humidity temperature increases as we go up
against the normal decrease of temperature.) It does not allow clouds to grow above its
base as the inversion layer is a very stable layer. Inversion is generally seen more over
the sea areas.

Equatorial Trough:

The low pressure near the equator is called as the equatorial trough. The mean
0
position of the equatorial trough for year as a whole is 5 N and it is called as the
Meteorological equator or the heat equator. This position is not coinciding with the real
equator - geographic equator. The two sub-tropical highs and equator shift north and
south during the year. During the month of January (December 22) when the sun is in the
0
southern most position the mean pressure trough lies near 5 S where as when the sun is
in extreme northern most position in July (June 22) the position of pressure trough is near
0
12 - 15 N. Thus the shift to the north is more than the shift to the south.

This equatorial trough is also the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Here
the trade winds from both the hemispheres meet in a narrow zone. This ITCZ produces
extremely bad weather conditions over a wide area.
 WESTERN DISTURBANCES

Western disturbances are the synoptic scale weather systems which occur in
middle latitude westerlies during the winter season. These systems originate over the
Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea and Black Sea and approach north-west India, especially
0
northern part of India north of 30 N, by moving across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and
Pakistan.
W.D. can be noticed as the cyclonic circulation or trough in the middle or lower
tropospheric levels or as a low pressure area on surface. Sometimes under the influence
of the western disturbance, a low or cyclonic circulation develops to the south of the
system. Then this is called as the 'Induced low' or the 'induced cyclonic circulation'.
Whenever two or more closed isobars can be drawn on the surface chart, then the
system can be referred as a western depression.
Along with the winter season the W.D. are also present in pre and post monsoon
seasons. During monsoon season also, they are present but are very rare and mostly in
the break monsoon situations. Sometimes the W.D’s are associated with the troughs in
the westerlies of mid and upper tropospheric levels. Movement of W.D. is mainly in
ENE ly direction.

Movement and Rainfall associated with W.D’s

When the W.D. moves across the country, the anticyclone over the central parts of the
country and adjoining peninsula is not at all affected. (Fig. 1)

In this case, the W.D. does not get any fresh supply of moisture to the system.

But sometimes (Fig. 2) a trough from W.D. penetrates into Arabian Sea and the
anticyclone over central parts slightly shifts eastwards and the system will get the fresh
supply of moisture from the Arabian Sea.

On some occasions (Fig. 3), the anticyclone shifts to the Bay of Bengal alongwith
the movement of W.D., in this case the trough also extends from W.D. into Arabian Sea.
In this case, the W.D. gets the fresh supply of moisture not only from the Arabian Sea but
from the Bay of Bengal also.
Intensification of the Western Disturbance

Intensification of W.D. depends upon the divergence available above the W.D.
The divergence can be due to a trough in mid and upper troposphere levels, velocity
divergence or due to Jet Maxima. (Figs.4,5 & 6).
This divergence in the upper air will intensify the W.D. in the lower levels.
Hence activity of W.D. depends upon the upper level divergence and the fresh moisture
supply either from the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal.

Important synoptic conditions associated with the approach and after

the passage of W.D’s over a station.

MET ELEMENTS BEFORE THE APPROACH OF W.D. OVER A STATION:

1. Fall of pressure (can be noticed by P P values).

24 24
2.
Rise in minimum and the dew point temperature.
3.
Approaching cloud sequence. First High clouds, then medium and then low clouds
and then precipitation and snowfall.
MET ELEMENTS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF W.D. HAS MOVED AWAY
FROM A STATION:

1. Rise in pressure.
2. Fall in minimum temperature (cold wave) and fall in dew point temperature indicates
dry weather.
3. Clearance of weather.
4. Fog in rear of W.D. after one or two days.

WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH W.D.

1. Precipitation
2. Cold Wave
3. Fog

1. PRECIPITATION: Rainfall / snowfall are the main precipitations associated

with W.D’s. It occurs over the forward sector of the W.D. Snow fall generally
ocure in high mountainous and hilly regions whereas the rainfall moves eastward
along with induced system. Rainfall belt extends eastward right up to West
Bengal or Assam depending upon the intensity and the movement of the systems.

2. COLD WAVE: Cold wave occurs in the rear of the Western Disturbance. It is a
relative term with respect to the normal minimum temperature. After the passage
of W.D. has moved away or if there is no other system following from the west,
the cold air from the north of the country sweeps southwards and the temperatures
drops leading to cold wave conditions over the country.

3. FOG: This is a weather hazard which is associated with the W.D’s. It generally
occurs in rear of W.D.’s leading poor visibility conditions, especially over the
Northern parts of the country during winter season.
 TROUGH IN WESTERLIES
0
The predominant winds in the mid-latitude regions (sub-tropics between 30 to
0
60 latitude) are westerly’s. One of the moving systems in this region is a wave
perturbation by alternate trough or ridge in it. Mostly these waves are present throughout
the year over entire globe. Over India, they mostly affect in winter season but they are
also present in other months and in SW monsoon, they are rare. These waves are first
studied by 'Rossby'.

These waves can be divided into two broad classes:

 Long Waves - are also called as Rossby waves or Planetary waves.

 Short Waves - are also known as Cyclone waves because of their association
with surface cyclones in middle latitudes.

Some of the characteristics of these westerly waves or troughs are :

1. Wave length of the long wave is 6000 to 8000 km, while short wave is having a
length of 2000 to 3000 km.
2. Normally there are 4 to 5 long waves around the hemisphere.
3. These waves are noticed in the deep layer of atmosphere usually between middle
and upper tropospheric levels preferably level are 300 hPa where the patterns are
smoother (between 700 to 200 hPa levels).
4. These waves move from west to east. The short waves moves faster than long
waves.
5. Long waves are very slow moving, their speed is about 1 to 2 degrees of longitude
0
for 24 hrs at 40 N. Short wave moves faster. They will travel at an average rate
of 10 to 12 degree of latitude for 24 hrs.
6. Movement of the long waves is related to the contour pattern and the isothermal
field on isobaric surface. Long waves can be progressive, stationery or
retrogressive.

a) Progressive Wave - When the amplitude of the contour is less than the
amplitude of isotherm, then the wave is progressive in the direction of zonal
current.
b) Stationary Wave - When the isotherm pattern coincides with contour, then the
wave becomes stationary.
c) Retrogressive Wave- In this case the wave will move from east to west
against the zonal current, when the amplitude of isotherm is smaller than the
amplitude or contour.

7. Short waves are always progressive waves.

8. Normally troughs in waves tilt westwards with height.
9. Ahead of the trough, divergence occurs and helps in the intensification of system
on the surface.
10. Thermal structure of long wave is characterised by warm ridge and cold trough.
In case of short waves, it is reversed. Troughs are warm and ridges are cold.
Thus in case of long waves, the contours and isotherm pattern are nearly in phase.
But in short wave, they are largely out of phase.
Thunderstorm and severe local storm, synoptic conditions favourable for
thunderstorm, concepts of triggering mechanism, conditional instability;
Norwesters, dust storm, hail storm. Squall, Ttornado, Microburst/
Cloudburst, Landslide.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER INDIA

Intense convective activity over India generally occurs during pre monsoon season.
March to May in June also it continues in some areas. The synoptic situations which are
responsible for the development of convective activity in general are clear skies, intense
heating of ground and the large instability. The synoptic features associated with is
convective activity can be studied for different parts of India.

1) Convective activity over NE India.

2) Convective activity over NW India.
3) Convective activity over central India.
4) Convective activity over peninsular India.

1) Convective activity over NE India:

Local name for convective activity over NE India is Norwesters, Kalabaisakhi.

This activity starts in month of March and reaches to its maximum in May. This area is
one of the high frequency of occurrence of thunderstorms in the country. Violent
thunderstorms, squalls, heavy precipitation and hails are quite common over NE India.
The synoptic situations associated with these thunderstorms are as follows.

i) Incursion of Moisture: A high pressure area is located over surface and an

anticyclone is located overt north and central Bay of Bengal during the pre-monsoon
season. The location and the intensity of this anticyclone control the flow of moisture in
the different parts of north-east India.
 ii) Velocity convergence in the lower levels: During pre-monsoon, a seasonal
wind discontinuity / trough extend from east Madhya Pradesh to south Peninsula. The
winds west of discontinuity / trough are north-westerly to northerly and to the east of
discontinuity are south of south-westerlies or southerlies. In these winds on some
occasions, there are some pockets when the wind stream decreases downstream due to
which the velocity convergence is there and which will enhance the intense convective
activity.

iii) Thermal structure of the Troposphere: During this season over north-east
India, there is a warm air advection in the lower tropospheric levels as there is a south of
south-westerly flow in lower troposphere. And in middle tropospheric levels, there is a
cold air advection as the winds are from the north-westerly direction. Thus increased
warm air advection is in the lower levels and increased cold air advection in the middle
levels. This type of advection will increase the lapse rate which will result in increased
instability over the area.

iv) Upper air divergence :

 Normally the convective activity increases over the areas where there is an upper
air divergence in the upper tropospheric levels. This divergence in the higher levels will
increase lower level convergence and increased convective activity. The upper level
divergence can be provided due to :

1) Trough in mid and upper tropospheric westerlies where the divergence is present
ahead of the trough i.e. from trough to ridge.
2) Velocity divergence in the westerly flow over northern parts of the country, the
wind speeds are increasing downstream.
3) Divergence associated with jet maxima. There is a divergence in right entrance
and left exit region of jet maxima area.
4) Along all these things, there is a east-west wind discontinuity / trough is present
in lower levels mostly from Uttar Pradesh to Assam or from Bihar to Assam which
helps in the enhancing convective activity over north-east India.

Tornado
A rotating column of air ranging in width from a few yards
to more than a mile and whirling at destructively high
speeds, usually accompanied by a funnel-shaped downward
extension of a cumulonimbus cloud. It is a violent
thunderstorm, and can be also termed as a whirlwind or
hurricane.

A violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud to the Earth,
ranging in width from a few meters to more than a kilometer and whirling at speeds
between 64 km (40 mi) and 509 km (316 mi) per hour or higher with comparable updrafts
in the center of the vortex. The vortex may contain several smaller vortices rotating
within it. Tornadoes typically take the form of a twisting, funnel-shaped cloud extending
downward from storm clouds, often reaching the ground, and dissolving into thin,
ropelike clouds as the tornado dissipates.
Tornadoes may travel from a few dozen meters to hundreds of kilometers along the
ground. Tornadoes usually form in the tail end of violent thunderstorms, with weaker
funnels sometimes forming in groups along a leading squall line of an advancing cold
front or in areas near a hurricane. The strongest tornadoes, which may last several hours
and travel hundreds of kilometers, can cause massive destruction in a relatively narrow
strip along their path. These are the weather systems whose cause of formation are not
well understood and are to be ascertained.
INDIAN SUMMER MONSOONS

Monsoon is a seasonal reversal of winds. This word is derived from the Arabic
word “Mausim”. This reversal of winds arises due to differential heating between land
and oceans. In Northern Hemisphere, summer and heating of the land starts in month of
March itself. In March, we can locate a low over peninsula, in April it shifts towards
north and during May over Punjab area. In short, during summer months of Northern
Hemisphere, a low pressure area is located over Africa and Asian continents and a high
pressure is over Indian sea in southern hemisphere. The winds will blow from high to
low. The winds will be the Southeast “Trades” from high in southern hemisphere, while
crossing the equator and going to the northern hemisphere , they will get deflected to the
right due to Coriolis force and become south-westerly wind, when they come over
peninsular India and central parts of India during summer month.

In winter months of northern hemisphere, the high pressure area is over the Asian
continents and the low pressure area is over the south of the equator. The winds will
blow from high to low. The winds blowing from high will become Notheasterly over
peninsular India and after crossing equator, they will become NW’ly due to the Coriolis
force in southern hemisphere.

This reversal of wind over Indian peninsula arises due to the differential heating
of the land and sea during the summer and winter.

The south-westerly wind flow during summer gives rise to southwest monsoon
over India from June to September and North-Easterly wind flow during winter gives rise
to NE monsoon during Oct.-Dec. which affects Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas.
ONSET AND ADVANCE OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON

During middle to end of March, when the sun enters the northern hemisphere
(22nd March), the heating starts over land areas of Africa, peninsular India and south-east
Asian countries. As the season advances the heat trough starts establishing. The trough
is positioned from Africa, Northwest India, to Gangetic plains to Malaysia and Pacific.
The movement of ITCZ to north and its merging with the above heat trough is the process
which is associated with the onset and advance of the SW monsoon. This process of
onset and advance and establishing the trough is the three stage process.

1) A synoptic scale system (e.g. from trough of low, cyclonic circulation in lower
troposphere or low pressure area, depression or cyclonic storm) forms over
Andaman Sea. This system brings the monsoon over the Andaman and Nicobar
Islands, its further advance over bay area establishes the bay branch. Before this
the anticyclone over Bay weakens and a weak westerly flow establishes over Bay.

2) A similar type of synoptic system forms over south Arabian sea and Lakshadweep
area and this Arabian sea branch brings the monsoon current upto North Arabian
Sea, peninsula and up to Gujrat.

3) Formation of any synoptic scale system over North Bay and its westward
movement brings the monsoon over North and central parts of the country.

Mostly Arabian sea branch propagates monsoon from South to North, while Bay
branch from East to West (This is mainly due to the Orography just as Himalayas
prevents the Bay branch to move Northwards). This propagation of both the branches is
not systematic and regular event. Some years it is a very rapid process which some years
the advance is slow and there is stagnation at different places due to difference in reasons.

Normally monsoon advances over Kerala on June 1 and afterwards over Assam
and adjacent states. But in very few years (in rare cases) are there when Assam and
adjacent states gets the monsoon before Kerala. Normally monsoon advance over the
entire country completes by July, 15.

SYNOPTIC SITUATIONS FAVOURABLE FOR THE ONSET OF SW

MONSOON OVER KERALA:

1) Establishment of east-west trough in North Indian Ocean in lower latitudes in

lower and middle tropospheric levels.

2) Huge east-west oriented cloudiness from southwest Arabian Sea to South

Andaman Sea. First it is seen over SW Arabian Sea & moves eastwards and
northwards.

3) Westerly winds over peninsular India in lower tropospheric levels become strong.

4) Easterly winds over peninsular India in upper troposphere also become strong
5) Sub-tropical ridge in upper troposphere over central and Northern parts of the
country moves northward.

6) Along with ridge, Sub-tropical Westerly Jet over India weakens and moves
northwards.

7) Westerly winds over Thiruvananthapuram in lower troposphere will become

strong and the depth of westerly winds also will increase.

8) Moisture in lower and middle troposphere over Thiruvananthapuram also

increases.

But in some years the onset over Kerala takes place without any significant
changes in the upper troposperic levels.

Objective Criteria of onset of sw monsoon over Kerala

A. RAINFALL
If after 10th May , 60% of available 14 stations,
VIZ. MINICOY, AMINI, TRV, PUNALUR, KOLLAM, ALLAPUZA,
KOTTAYAM, KOCHI, TRISSUR, KOZHIKODE, TALLESSERY, CANNUR,
KASARGODE, AND MANGALORE report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for 2
consecutive days, the onset of monsoon over Kerala be declared on the 2nd day,
provided the following criteria are also in concurrence.

B. WIND FIELD
Depth of westerlies should be maintained up to 600 hpa in the box equator to Lat.
10o N and Long. 55o E to 80o E. The zonal wind speed over the area bounded by
Lat. 5o-10oN, Long. 70o-80oE should be of 15-20 Kts at 925 hpa. The source of
data can be RSMC Charts/satellite derived wind.

C. OLR
INSAT derived OLR value should be below 200 wm-2 in the box confined by Lat.
5-10o E and Long. 70-75o E.

Further advance of monsoon over the country may be decided as follows.

1. On the basis of occurrence of rainfall over parts of the sub divisions and maintaining
the spatial continuity of the N.L.M. of monsoon.

2. Along the west coast, position of maximum cloud zone as inferred by sat. Imageries .

3. Moisture incursion by Satellite water vapour imageries.

SEMI-PERMANENT SYSTEMS OR COMPONENTS OF SW MONSOON

The systems which are located over India and adjoining areas throughout the
monsoon season are called as the semi-permanent systems or components of SW
monsoon. The positions and intensity of these systems vary from day-to-days and they
can influence the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution.

1 Heat Low - Surface.

2 Monsoon Trough - Surface, Lower and Middle Troposphere.
3 Low Level Jet - Surface and upto 2.1 km a.s.l.
4 Tibetian High - Middle and upper Troposphere.
5 Tropical Easterly Jet - Upper Troposphere.
6 Mascarine High - Surface.

First five components are from the Northern Hemisphere over India but last one is
from Southern Hemisphere in Indian Ocean.

1) Heat Low - During monsoon season heat low is located over NW Rajasthan and
adjoining Pakistan. The heating actually starts in March where heat trough is observed
over peninsula mostly on 12 Z chat. In April, heat low is observed over Vidarbha and
adjoining Madhya Pradesh. In May, it is seen over Punjab and from June to September
over NW Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan. After September, after withdrawal of SW
monsoon heat low vanishes. Ramage has shown that surface pressure at Jacobabad in
the heat low region is inversely proportional to the activity of monsoon over Central and
0 0
North India, specifically between the average rainfall over the strip between 18 to 27 N.
Thus, the intensity of heat low controls the rainfall. The heat low is very shallow and it
extends only up to 850 hPa level. Later on it is replaced by a well marked ridge and
subsidence.

2) Monsoon Trough : The normal position of the monsoon trough on surface chart
passes through Ganganagar-Allahabad-Calcutta to Head Bay. At 850 hPa the position is
0 0
more or less same. At 700 hPa, it is around 19 N and at 500 hPa around 16 N The
monsoon trough shifts southwards with height. It is due to the fact that temperature to
0
the south of trough is about 2 C less than that at the North, and low or trough shifts
towards cold with height. Generally heavy precipitation is concentrated to the south of
the trough. If the Trough is in the North of the normal position, the weak monsoon
conditions prevail over the country and if trough is to the South of the normal position,
the active monsoon conditions will prevail. Sometimes the trough is along the foothills
of Himalayas or it is not at all seen on the surface or lower levels. This situation of chart
is associated with a break monsoon / weak condition. Generally, synoptic scale systems
(Cyclonic circulations, lows and depressions) move along the trough line from North Bay
0
of Bengal. This trough can fluctuate 5 N or S during a day. Sometimes only the western
part of trough is seen and not the eastern part but sometimes it happens another way also.
The monsoon trough is regarded as the equatorial trough of northern summer in the
Indian latitudes.
3) Low Level Jet: This jet is also known as i) Findlater’s Jet, ii) Banker’s Jet or iii)
Somali Jet. Strong south-easterly trades coming from periphery of Mascarine High in
southern hemisphere near equator after crossing the equator turn into south-westerly
winds due to the Coriolis force become strong and become a low level jet (Core speed of
about 40 to 50 kts.) This jet flows from near the Mauritius over northern tip of
Madagascar and reaches near Kenya as the south-easterly winds and then after crossing,
it blows from Ethiopia and Somalia as southerly and becomes south-westerly in Arabian
0 0
Sea. Normally it is seen at about 11 - 12 N. Sometimes this jet splits into two branches,
0
one branch touching TRV and another near 17 N. Positive vorticity and convergence is
present to the North of Jet core. This low level jet gives very heavy rainfall. Gradual
south to north movement of the jet core is noticed.

4) Tibetian High: During monsoon season the intense anticyclone is noticed over the
elevated Tibetian Plateau. Intense heating of the elevated locations of the Tibetian
Plateau is responsible for the formation of this high. This high is noticed from the 500
hPa level onwards but maximum intensity and size of the high is noticed at 200 hPa level.
This anticyclone starts migrating from equatorial region of the south-east Asia from
month of March. During the month of March, it is positioned near Tennaserium coast
and adjoining Andaman Sea. During April, it is over Burma and adjoining area. During
May, it is over Bangla Desh and adjoining area. From June to September it is over
Tibetian Plateau and again from October to December, it goes towards south-easterly
direction to south-east Asia. If this anticyclone is dislocated and if its position is south-
eastwards to its normal position, then the system during monsoon i.e. cyclonic
circulations, low or depression move on the periphery of this anticyclone and it may not
0 0
reach the longitude 85 E or 80 E. It will just recurve towards north and north-east. But
if the anticyclone is noticed towards west or WNW of its normal position, then the
monsoon systems will move through Gangetic Plains WNW - wards and reach right up to
west Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan, and will give the good rainfall over central and
northern parts of the country.
5) TROPICAL EASTERLY JET: As per the WMO definition Jet stream is a strong
core of wind current extending thousands of kilometres in length, hundreds of kms in
width and a few kms in depth. In jet stream there are at least more than one velocity
maxima of 60 kts or more. The horizontal wind shear is 5 mps per 100 kms and vertical
wind shear is 5-10 mps per kilometre. During SW monsoon season tropical easterly
(TEJ) is located from east coast of Vietnam to the west coast of Africa. This is a special
feature of the monsoon season. These types of strong easterly winds are observed only
during SW monsoon season and only over the area mentioned above. These types of
strong easterly winds are not observed on any other part of the globe and at any other
period.

During monsoon season, due to the intense heating in the northern hemisphere
over Indian sub-continents, the warmer temperatures are over the northern parts and
colder temperatures are over the southern parts in the troposphere. This type of
temperature distribution gives rise to the easterly thermal wind over peninsular India
0
south of 20 N. Thus over westerly strength deceases in the lower troposphere and mid-
troposphere upto 500 hPa with height and then the winds will change into easterlies. And
this easterly strength increases with height and become stronger and reach to maximum
speed in upper troposphere at 150 or 100 hPa level.

The jet stream is in the accelerating state from Vietnam to peninsular India and
afterwards it is in the decelerating state from peninsular India to west coast of Africa.
0
The normal position of TEJ over India is located at 13 N at 150 hPa level. However the
position and height varies from day to day. During the strong monsoon conditions the
JET stream is located to the south of its normal position and it is strong. During the
break monsoon conditions, Jet is weak and it is to the north of its normal position. Some
0
times during break monsoon, two jet maxima are seen, one around 15 N and other
0
around 19 N.

6) MASCARINE HIGH : This high is in the southern hemisphere over south Indian
0 0
ocean. The normal position is 30 S and 50 E. The normal pressure of this high is 1024
hPa in July and August. The position and the intensity of this high is very important in
activity of SW monsoon. If this High is more intense, it will give rise to strong SE winds
in southern hemisphere and strong SW winds over Arabian Sea and peninsula. This
contributes to the strong monsoon conditions. Sometimes this high is dislocated and thus
the position and intensity of SW ly winds over Arabian Sea changes.
 Synoptic Systems in SW Monsoon Season

1) Monsoon Depressions
2) Low’s
3) Mid tropospheric cyclones
4) Off shore trough
5) Off shore vortex
6) Troughs in monsoon westerlies.

Withdrawal of SW Monsoon
1) Withdrawal from extreme northwest parts of country should not be
st st
attempted before 1 Sept. After 1 Sept. following synoptic features are to be
seen.

a. Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days.

b. Establishment of anticyclone in lower troposphere.
c. Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapour
imageries and T-Φ

2) Further withdrawal from the country-

a. May be declared keeping the special continuity, reduction in moisture as seen

from water vapour imageries and prevalence of dry weather for 5 days.
b. It should be withdrawn from Southern Peninsula and hence from the entire country
only after 1st October when the circulation pattern indicates a change over from
south westerly wind regime.
 TROPICAL CYCLONE

1) INTRODUCTION

Tropical cyclone (TC) formation is one of the least understood topics of tropical
meteorology. Research indicates that approximately 80% of all TCs form in or just
poleward of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and monsoon trough (Gray,
1968).

Most of the remainder (about 10%) form from disturbances, embedded in the
easterly trade wind flow near the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). While
the advent of satellite imagery has provided a wealth of data to aid research on this topic,
it has also lessened the need for short range forecasting of TC formation. Nevertheless,
predicting formation remains an important subject. The tropical cyclones occurring over
North Atlantic ocean, are known as Hurricanes and over Pacific ocean are known as
Typhoons. T.Cs occurring near to the Australian continent is known as Willy-Willies.
Tropical cyclones do not occur over South Atlantic ocean and in SE Pacific (east of 140 o
W) mainly because the SSTs are much colder over these areas and ITCZ remains mainly
North of equator throughout the year. Over India, Tropical storm is called as the cyclonic
storm. Tropical cyclones are the intense low pressures systems where the wind speed in
the surface circulation system exceeds 33 Knots.

Categories are derived on the basis of wind speed as follows:

< 17 Kts Low

17-27 kts Depression
28-33 Kt Deep Depression
34-47 Kts Cyclonic storm
48-63 Kts Severe cyclonic storm
64-119 Kts Very sever Cyclonic storm
≥ 120 Kts Super cyclonic storm
The period of formation of Tropical storms in different oceans and areas are given
below:

Tropical North Atlantic Ocean - June to November

Eastern North Pacific Ocean - June to October
Western North Pacific Ocean - May to November
Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea - March to May, October to December
South Pacific (West of 140 W
- December to April
in southern hemisphere)
South Indian Ocean - November to April

The areas of formation of the tropical cyclone are mainly in the region of
equator, but they never form between 5o N to 5o S. They form mainly from 5o N to 5o S
up to 25o N and 25o S, respectively.

The tropical cyclone represents an organized tropospheric disturbance that

deviates significantly from the tropospheric normal state. Consequently tropical cyclone
forecasting is a difficult, specialized task in the realm of modern theoretical and applied
meteorology. Worldwide improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting skills in recent
decades has been largely due to the,

 International and regional collaboration on communications,

 Development of powerful observational tools including data acquisition and
processing systems,
 A growing demand for timely warnings and accurate forecasts, and
 Improved conceptual, theoretical and numerical weather prediction models of
tropical cyclone structure and motion.

2. FACTORS AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

There are two primary influences on TC formation: internal and environmental

influences. The consensus is that these two influences are equal in importance during the
formative stage of a tropical disturbance. There is a requirement for some type of
mechanism, which will enhance the low-level convergence and increase the organization
associated with a developing tropical disturbance or convective cloud cluster. This
enhancement is usually attributed to an external influence, but as the disturbance
becomes more organized and self-sufficient, the importance of the environment in
maintaining the disturbance's structure lessens, but still has a large influence.

Since TCs have been observed to develop from the inner core outward and also to
decay from the inner core outward, it is important to understand the internal processes
associated with TC development. For brevity, only those factors, which pertain to initial
formation, will be mentioned here.
3. DYNAMICS OF THE VERTICLA COLUMN

In the 1940s and 50s it was hypothesized that for the above process to occur, some type
of upper-tropospheric outflow pattern developed over a disturbance which triggered a
corresponding area of low-level convergence.
Gray (1968) suggests that compensation for mass convergence and divergence at any
level must always occur at a higher level and that the initial formation stage of a tropical
disturbance is the result of a pre-existing area of low- level convergence that develops in
an environment favourable for the accumulation of heat within a vertical column. This
type of environment is characterized by areas of weak vertical wind shear (Fig.3.1). If
heating in the vertical column is allowed to persist, a TC may form (Fig.3.2)
3.1. How do tropical cyclones form?

To undergo tropical cyclogenesis, there are several favourable precursor

environmental conditions that must be in place (Gray 1968, 1979):

1. Warm ocean waters (of at least 26.5 C [80 F]) throughout as sufficient depth (unknown
how deep, but at least on the order of 50 m [150 ft]). Warm waters are necessary to
fuel the heat engine of the tropical cyclone.

2. An atmosphere which cools fast enough with height such that it is potentially unstable
to moist convection. It is the thunderstorm activity, which allows the heat stored in
the ocean waters to be liberated for the tropical cyclone development.

3. Relatively moist layers near the mid-troposphere (5 km [3 mi]). Dry mid levels are not
conducive for allowing the continuing development of widespread thunderstorm
activity.

4. A minimum distance of at least 500 km [300 mi] from the equator. For tropical
cyclogenesis to occur there is a requirement for non-negligible amounts of the Coriolis
force to provide for near gradient wind balance to occur. Without the Coriolis force,
the low pressure of the disturbance cannot be maintained.

5. A pre-existing near-surface disturbance with sufficient vorticity and convergence.

Tropical cyclones cannot be generated spontaneously. To develop, they require a
weakly organized system with sizable spin and low level inflow.

6. Low values (less than about 10 m/s [20 kts] of vertical wind shear between the surface
and the upper troposphere. Vertical wind shear is the magnitude of wind change with
height. Large values of vertical wind shear disrupt the incipient tropical cyclone and
can prevent genesis, or, if a tropical cyclone has already formed, large vertical shear
can weaken or destroy the tropical cyclone by interfering with the organization of deep
convection around the cyclone center.
 Having these conditions met is necessary, but not sufficient, as many disturbances
that appear to have favourable conditions do not develop. Recent work (Velasco and
Fritsch 1987, Chen and Frank 1993, Emanuel 1993) has identified that large
thunderstorm systems (called mesoscale convective complexes [MCC]) often produce an
inertially stable, warm core vortex in the trailing altostratus decks of the MCC.
These meso vortices have a horizontal scale of approximately 100 to 200 km [75 to 150
mi], are strongest in the mid-troposphere (5 km [3 mi]) and have no appreciable signature
at the surface. Zehr (1992) hypothesizes that genesis of the tropical cyclones occurs in
two stages:

Stage 1 occurs when the MCC produces a mesoscale vortex and stage 2 occurs
when a second blow up of convection at the mesoscale vortex initiates the intensification
process of lowering central pressure and increasing swirling winds.

4. LIFE CYCLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

There are several schemes that describe the life-cycle of an average T.C. These
stages are not really discrete entities, rather they represent a continuous process.
Individual stages may even occur more than once during the life cycle of a particular
storm.

Fig: Mechanics of tropical cyclones :

Tropical cyclones form when the energy released by the condensation of moisture in rising air causes
a positive feedback loop over warm ocean waters.

The period from formation of a initial disturbance i.e. low pressure area, its
intensification into the depression, Deep depression, up to cyclonic storm and ultimately
its weakening is a life cycle of Tropical cyclone.
 The life cycle can be decided into 4 stages

1. Formative stage

2. Immature stage

3. Mature stage

4. Decaying stage

Formative stage

Since the nature of TC development is continuous, features associated with

earliest stages of the TC life-cycle can overlap. To complicate the issue, there is no
standard language for these initial stages. For example, some meteorologists prefer the
term "genesis" to describe both the earliest stages of the life-cycle and progression to a
mature hurricane or typhoon. Others use the term "genesis" to describe the earliest stages
and "formation" to somewhat later stages in the life-cycle.

However, this is a stage in which the initial disturbance of low pressure intensifies
into depression, deep depression into Tropical cyclone. At the end of this stage the eye
and wall cloud region is formed. For formation of the eye and wall cloud the wind speed
should reach 40 kts. The pressure defect difference in pressure from outer most closed
isobar to central pressure PO-PC, in this stage is of the order of 10 hPa. Clouds and rain
associated with the storm in this stage occurs in a disorganized pattern. Development of
the marked circular cloud masses as seen in the satellite cloud pictures also occurs in this
stage. The duration of this stage is about few days to 10 days.

Immature stage:

In this stage, primarily, two things occur:

 Rapid fall of pressure in the central region of T.C.

 Strengthening of winds in surface circulation

At the end of this stage lowest pressure and the strongest winds, which are
associated with storm, are reached. In this stage the winds, clouds, precipitation pattern
become more organized. These form a fight ring around a centre into a spiral band
directed inward. Duration of this stage is about 1/2 a day to 2 to 3 days. Duration
depends upon the basin (Area) for India and Bay and Arabian Sea it is about 1/2 to 1 day.
For Atlantic Ocean it is of 2-3 days.
Mature stage

In this stage the system reaches to the more or less steady state for some level of
intensity. Here the central pressure to longer falls and wind strength no longer increases
in surface circulation. However the circulation expands in area and the size of the system
expands horizontally in all directions and reaches to its maximum size. The strong winds
extend as far as up to 200 miles from the center. In this stage the symmetry in circulation
that is associated with cyclone is lost completely and the maximum wind and the
maximum pressure gradient are concentrated in the right forward sector of the cyclonic
storm in the northern hemisphere. The duration of this stage is few days to one week.

Decaying stage

During this stage the T.C weakens rapidly in deep depression, Depression, low and
becomes less marked due to two reasons:

 Due to crossing the coast and entering into the land area weakens due to reason
ofcut off of moisture supply from the ocean.

 Due to the reason that T.C enters into the area of relatively cold waters. Entrance
of colder and dry air in lower levels destroys the outside to inside the circulation.

 Sometimes if the T.C enters into the mid latitude westernizes it can get the frontal
characteristics and it can become the extra tropical cyclone. This is not
weakening but changing the characteristics. Duration of this stage is few hours to
one day.

5. HORIZONTAL STRUCTURE OF CYCLONIC STORM

5.1. Eye of the T.C:-

This is the characteristic feature of the T.C If not seen in extra tropical cyclones
this is characterized by the calm winds, clear sky, calm weather but the lowest pressure
at the center, Descending motion and sultry conditions are also present in the eye region.
The abrupt succession of precipitation is observed when eye region passes over an area
Diameter of eye varies from 10 to 50 Kms shape of the eye is generally circular but
sometimes elliptical shape is also observed sometimes diffused eye in double eye also
can be observed. Inside the eye region the surface temperatures are slightly higher than
the surrounding but at the upper levels the temperatures in the eye region are
considerably higher.
 5.2. Wall cloud Region

This region is just adjustment to the eye of the T.C. This is the most dangerous
part of the Tropical cyclone. The width of wall cloud is about 20 Kms. In this region
huge Cb clouds towers are notices. In this region maximum pressure gradient, heaviest
precipitation and maximum strongest wind associated with T.C are noticed. Pressure
gradient in wall cloud region that is associated with T.C is of the order of 0.2 to 0.5 hPa
per km. Temperatures in this region are colder than the eye region.

Within the wall cloud at the central region the strongest winds occur and the
distance from center to the midpoint of wall clouds can be considered as the radius of
maximum winds and incidentally the same can be considered as the radius of maximum
reflectivity (RMR).Some times for some TCs double wall cloud regions are noticed. One
wall cloud region weakens and then another wall cloud is formed.

If existing wall cloud weakens and double wall cloud forms or double wall cloud
is noticed we can noticed that the system is undergoing changes in intensity. Normally in
this case the intensity is reducing.

5.3. Outer storm Region

The area from wall cloud to the outermost region of T.C is known as the outer storm
region. In this region the wind speed decreases as we move away from wall cloud. Over
Indian seas we notice two different types of out storm regions.

 One in which wind speed decreases gradually as we move away from the wall
cloud.

 Other one in which the wind speed decreases rapidly as we move away from wall
cloud.

6. VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF T.C.

Vertically T.C can be divided into 3 layers.

6.1. Inflow layer,

6.2. Middle layer

6.3. Out flow layer.

 Vertical structure of a matured TC.

Inflow layer: - It is a layer in which there is a predominant flow towards the centre of the
cyclone from outside is present.

 This layer extends from surface upto about 3 Kms (700 hPa height). In this also
strongest or maximum inflow of winds occurs in frictional layer i.e. layer
between surface to 1 Km.

 This layer is also called as the planetary boundary layer. Diameter of the T.C.
remains more or less same in the inflow layer.

Middle layer: - In this layer the inflow into the centre of the cyclone is compensated by
the outflow away from centre of cyclone and hence in this layer at any height if you
compute there is neither inflow nor out flow present.

 This layer extends from 3 Km to 7.65 km (700 to 400 hPa above mean sea level.

 In this layer the diameter of T.C decreases rapidly with height.

Outflow layer: This layer occurs above 400 hPa level where there is pre-dominant
outflow present i.e. flow away from the centre of the cyclone.

 Maximum outflow occurs at about 200 hPa level and this outflow depends upon
the wind flow distribution at that level.

 We can also notice the Cirrus (CI) outflow from T.C through satellite picture. In
this layer the diameter of the vortex is small and is about 1deg Lat/ Long at 200
hPa level. At this level sometimes we can see the cyclonic outflow in case of
intense systems.

Other points regarding vertical structure

 A mature T.C has got its extension upto about 100-hPa level. The cyclonic
circulation or vortex associated with T.C extends into the entire troposphere.

 T.C circulation is vertically straight and it does not tilt with height. Reason is that
generally the low-pressure system tilts towards the areas where the cold
temperatures are noticed. But in association with T.C the temperature distribution
is such that the temperature gradient is more or less same or equal to all the sides
(i.e. E, W, N, S etc). This is the reason that the T.C does not tilt with height it is
straight in the vertical.

 T.C is the warm core phenomenon where the temperatures at the center are
warmer than the surrounding (areas) regions. The maximum warming occurs at
the 300-hPa level where the temperatures at the center are warmer by about 8 deg.
C as compared to the surrounding areas.

 The diameter of T.C remains same as surface up to about 700 hPa level. Above
that it decreases rapidly and at 200 hPa level. Above that it decreases rapidly and
at 200 hPa level it is about 1 deg Lat. / 1deg Long.

7. FORECASTING OF MOVEMENT OF T.C.

With the help of the following methods the forecaster can predict the movement

1) Climatology
2) Persistence,
3) Analogue
4) Steering concept
Climatology

In the initial stages of T.C the climatoloical information is the best source for the
prediction of movement of T.C. Based upon the data of more than 100 years for every 2
½ square of Lat/Lon rid percentage frequency of direction and speed of movement is
available for both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
Based upon this the forecaster can give the forecast about the movement of T.C But the
climatological method has got its own disadvantages as we know very well that the
system/rainfall need not follow past climatology.

Persistence

The concept of persistence arises under the assumption that the past and the
existing flow will continue to be same. The previous direction and speed of motion are
used for predicting the movement of the cyclone.
In certain cases people give half weightage to climatology and half weightage to
persistence track and evaluate the direction of movement and forecast the movement.

Analogue

In this method a cyclonic storm in the past which has developed around the same
area and around the same period of month is selected as an analogue cyclone and
predicted that the present cyclone will also move as per the track of analogue cyclone.
Based upon the above three methods. Some methods are developed by giving equal
weightage to climatology, persistence and analogue.

Steering concept

Steering concept is based on the thought that the T.C moves as per the direction of flow
of basic current in which it is embedded.
However, where the data over the T.C region is available, generally the average winds at
various levels are computed and the average wind for the entire troposphere is computed
by giving less weightage to lower and middle tropospheric levels and more weightage to
the upper tropospheric levels. It is expected that T.C will move as per that average wind
direction and speed.
Over Indian region we consider that the level as a steering level from which the cyclonic
circulation of TC is not seen, the TC will move as per the wind direction and speed in
that level. Generally for Indian seas 200 hPa is the steering level for the Tropical
cyclones. If the winds in this level is E’ly then the T.C will move westwards, if it is
South easterly the T.C will move north westerly direction, if it is southerly TC will move
northwards.
Numerical method:

Based upon the various NWP methods numbers of model have been developed for
forecasting the flow pattern for next 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours. However, still a
comprehensive NWP model that can predict storm movement 24 to 48 hrs ahead of
crossing the coast with accuracy is still to be developed.

Pressure changes in 24 hours

In addition to all above methods the 24 hrs pressure change will give very crucial
indication information about the movement of cyclonic storm, when the C.S comes
nearer to coastal area where the pressure changes (-ve) are more the TC is expected to
move in that direction.
Sometimes the surface position of the storm may be directly below the COL region in the
upper tropospheric flow pattern.
A COL region is an area enclosed between two anticyclones (a high pressure cell) to the
east and west and two troughs one to the north in westerlies and one to the south in
easterlies. Under such conditions the storm movement is very slow or even stationery
some times. This continuous till one of the ridge or trough becomes active relative to the
others so that it can be steer the storm. Whenever a storm is likely to change its course its
speed generally decreases.

SUB-TROPICAL WESTERLY JET STREAM

WMO recommended definition of the Jet Stream " A jet stream is a strong
narrow current concentrated along a quasi-horizontal axis in the upper troposphere or in
the stratosphere characterised by strong vertical and lateral wind shears and featuring
one or more velocity maxima."

Normally jet stream is thousands of kms in length, hundreds of kms in width and some
kms in depth. The vertical wind shear is of the order of 5 to 10 mps per km and the
lateral wind shear is of the order of 5 mps per 100 km.

Some of the chief characteristics associated with the westerly Jet Stream are :
0
1. The mean position of Jet over Indian sub-continent is at 27 N at height of about
12 Kms (200 hPa)
2. There is a down stream strengthening of the wind speeds in Jet stream. This is
from Jodhpur to Gauhati across the country. The Jet continues further north-
eastwards across China and Japan with core speeds increasing progressively
reaching maximum over south Japan (200 hPa).
3. The STWJ lies entirely within the tropical troposphere about 3-4 Kms below the
tropical tropopause. The Jet is in the region of a break in tropopause between the
tropical tropopause (near 100 hPa) and the middle tropopause (near 200 -250 hPa)
4. The jet is caused by the concentration of the horizontal temperature gradient
below the jet level and the reversal of the gradient above the jet level at and near
the jet level the temperature gradient is very small or zero.
5. Sub-tropical jet is very steady phenomenon and can be seen daily on the charts.
At more or less same position and can occur in mean charts also.
6. STJ is located near the poleward boundary of the Hadley cell.
7. Deep troughs in westerlies and active WD across India shifts the jet south of the
normal position where as a pronounced ridge is present jet will shifts northwards
of its normal position.
8. Generally jet stream over India is associated with clear weather but on some
occasions there is cloudiness and rainfall.
9. Associated with the high speed centres along a jet axis we have upper air
divergence in the left exit and right entrance sectors caused by the advection of
positive vorticity. If any low pressure system in lower levels (over north and
central India) is observed below these areas then there will be well marked
weather and thunder storm activity.
Mountain waves

In meteorology, the most common form of mountain waves are lee waves which
are are atmospheric standing waves. These may also be referred as atmospheric
internal gravity waves. They were discovered back in 1933 by two German glider pilots,
Hans Deutschmann and Wolf Hirth. These waves are the periodic changes
of atmospheric pressure, temperature and heights above mean sea level in
a current of air caused by vertical displacement, for example orographic lift when
the wind blows over a mountain or mountain range. They can also be caused by the
surface wind blowing over an escarpment or plateau, or even by upper winds deflected
over a thermal updraft or cloud street.

The vertical motion forces periodic changes in speed and direction of the air
within this air current. They always occur in groups on the lee side of the terrain that
triggers them. Usually a turbulent vortex, with its axis of rotation parallel to the mountain
range, is generated around the first trough is called a rotor. The strongest lee waves are
produced when the lapse rate shows a stable layer above the obstruction, with an unstable
layer above and below.
 Fig- Mountain Wave [The wind flows towards a mountain and produces a first

(a very smooth, round or oval, lens-shaped cloud that is often seen, singly or
stacked in groups, near a mountain ridge) stuck on top of the flow (B). This
configuration is used to access high altitudes with gliders.]

Weather forecasting

Depending upon the validity period the weather forecasting can be classified into the
following categories:

Short Range Forecasting (SRF) < 3 days

Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) 3-10 days
Extended Range Forecasting (ERF) 11-30 days
Long Range Forecasting (LRF) > 30 days

Clouds and Weather (Convective type) - Diurnal Variation:

Diurnal variation of convective clouds and convective type of weather is more or
less common in tropical areas and this is just like diurnal variation of temperature which
is having minimum in morning and maximum in evening. This variation is more marked
on land. Morning hours are clear i.e. cloud free, however towards afternoon hrs. i.e.
about 1000 to 1100 hrs. (Local time) clouds start developing and large and huge clouds
 may develop towards evening leading to some possibility of thunder storm occurrence
before sunset. After the sunset, clouds may disappear

Although over the sea areas the variation of clouds is reverse. During night time there is more
possibility of development of clouds and occurrence of rainfall.
Variation of Rainfall: Due to effect of Orography there may be some local variation in
the rainfall. Over mountains there are heavier amounts of rainfall than over the land
areas. For example the Western Ghats in Maharashtra during monsoon season, especially
in the month of July and August, experiences heavy to very heavy amounts of rainfall.
Over these Ghats rainfall is maximum, near the coast slightly less but on the lee
ward side of Ghats the rainfall goes on decreasing. Lee side is called as the rain shadow
area. Ex. Mahabaleshwar - Max. rain, Mumbai - slightly less and Pune - much less
rainfall. This type of effect is also observed over Khashi hills in Meghalaya where
Cherrapunji and Mawsynram receive maximum rainfall. However, over the very high
mountains like Himalayas, the rainfall increases only upto certain limits and later on it
decreases due to high altitudes cold temperatures reducing the capacity of atmosphere to
contain/absorb moisture.

References:

1) P. K. Das : Monsoon
2) C.S. Ramage : Monsoon meteorology
3) H. Riehl : Tropical Meteorology
4) E. Palmen & C.W. Newton : Atmospheric Circulation Systems
5) Y. P. Rao : Southwest Monsoon. Met. Monograph Synop. Met. No. 1/76
6) Tropical Meteorology (Vol- I,II,III)- By G.C.Asnani
7) WMO compendium of lecture notes on meteorology (Vol. II)