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CFRAStock Report

Tesla, Inc. is rated as a 'BUY' with a current price of USD 262.67 and a 12-month target price of USD 540. The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by increased vehicle sales and the ramp-up of production in new factories, despite facing risks related to competition and regulatory challenges. Tesla aims to grow its annual vehicle sales to 20 million units by 2030, with projected adjusted EPS of $2.90 in 2025 and $3.85 in 2026.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
27 views9 pages

CFRAStock Report

Tesla, Inc. is rated as a 'BUY' with a current price of USD 262.67 and a 12-month target price of USD 540. The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by increased vehicle sales and the ramp-up of production in new factories, despite facing risks related to competition and regulatory challenges. Tesla aims to grow its annual vehicle sales to 20 million units by 2030, with projected adjusted EPS of $2.90 in 2025 and $3.85 in 2026.

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xewepen440
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500

Tesla, Inc.
Recommendation Price 12-Mo. Target Price Report Currency Investment Style
BUY « « « « « USD 262.67 (as of market close Mar 07, 2025) USD 540.00 USD Large-Cap Growth
Equity Analyst Garrett Nelson

GICS Sector Consumer Discretionary Summary Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells high-performance fully electric vehicles
Sub-Industry Automobile Manufacturers (EVs) and components, as well as a full suite of renewable energy products.

Key Stock Statistics (Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), Company Reports)
52-Wk Range USD 488.54 - 138.8 Oper.EPS2025E USD 2.90 Market Capitalization[B] USD 847.39 Beta 2.51
Trailing 12-Month EPS USD 2.42 Oper.EPS2026E USD 3.85 Yield [%] N/A 3-yr Proj. EPS CAGR[%] 7
Trailing 12-Month P/E 108.54 P/E on Oper.EPS2025E 90.58 Dividend Rate/Share N/A SPGMI's Quality Ranking B-
USD 10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago 54,542.0 Common Shares Outstg.[M] 3,216.00 Trailing 12-Month Dividend N/A Institutional Ownership [%] 48.0

Price Performance Analyst's Risk Assessment

LOW MEDIUM HIGH


Our risk assessment reflects the highly competitive nature
of the auto industry and potential execution risk for the
company, partly offset by the potential dramatic volume
growth we expect for the company.

Revenue/Earnings Data

Revenue (Million USD)


1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
2026 E 26,677 E 29,846 E 32,277 E 37,232 E 126,032
2025 E 23,551 E 25,422 E 27,045 E 29,493 E 105,510
2024 21,301 25,500 25,182 25,707 97,690
2023 23,329 24,927 23,350 25,167 96,773
2022 18,756 16,934 21,454 24,318 81,462
2021 10,389 11,958 13,757 17,719 53,823

Earnings Per Share (USD)


1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence
2026 E 0.88 E 0.96 E 0.98 E 1.03 E 3.85
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.
2025 E 0.62 E 0.70 E 0.76 E 0.82 E 2.90
Analysis prepared by Garrett Nelson on Jan 30, 2025 12:51 PM ET, when the stock traded at USD 398.86.
2024 0.45 0.52 0.72 0.73 2.42
2023 0.85 0.91 0.66 0.71 3.12
Highlights Investment Rationale/Risk
2022 1.07 0.76 1.05 1.19 4.07
u We estimate TSLA’s revenue will rise 16% in u Our Buy rating reflects our view that shares are 2021 0.31 0.48 0.62 0.85 2.26
2025 and 18% in 2026, after increases of 2% in deserving of higher multiples on a more Fiscal Year ended Dec 31. EPS Estimates based on CFRA's
2024 and 19% in 2023. The primary driver of favorable view of the regulatory approval Operating Earnings; historical earnings are adjusted. In periods
the increase is higher volumes from the ramp- timeline for TSLA’s autonomous driving where a different currency has been reported, this has been
up of its factories in Texas and Germany. TSLA’s technology. First deliveries of the Cybertruck adjusted to match the current quoted currency.
Model Y and Model 3 are the two best-selling were achieved on November 30, 2023. First
EVs in the U.S. by a wide margin, and TSLA made production of TSLA’s Cybercab, a two-seat Dividend Data
its first deliveries of the Cybertruck in November vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals and a No cash dividends have been paid in the last year.
2023. TSLA’s energy storage segment has also price of under $30K, is expected by 2027. Tesla’s
become a key growth driver. Energy Generation and Storage segment has
u We see TSLA’s vehicle sales increasing 6% in become an important growth driver (revenue
2025 and another 16% in 2026, after declining +67% in 2024), as Auto segment revenue
1% in 2024 and rising by 38% in 2023. growth has slowed significantly in recent
Following the completion of new factories in quarters (-6% in 2024).
Austin and Berlin in early 2022, construction of u Risks to our rating and target include weaker-
a new plant in Monterrey, Mexico, began in 2023 than-expected sales growth, development and
as it delivers on its goal of increasing annual regulatory risks, and various risks related to CEO
volumes to 20M units in 2030 (a 40x jump over Elon Musk.
2020 levels). TSLA’s 2024 vehicle sales of 1.79M u Our 12-month price target of $540 is based on
units were down about 1% from 1.81M units in a 2026 P/E of 140x. We expect TSLA to trade at
2023, but up from 1.31M in 2022 and 936K in a significant premium to other automakers
2021. given its growth prospects, as it aims to deliver
u We see adjusted EPS of $2.90 in 2025 and on its goal of growing annual auto volumes to
$3.85 in 2026, vs. $2.42 in 2024 and $3.12 in 20M by 2030. TSLA’s valuation premium relative
2023. TSLA has an investment-grade balance to auto competitors reflects various
sheet with cash of $36.6B and total debt (ex- technologies in development, including a ride-
product financing) of only $7M at the end of hailing app, a humanoid robot, AI computing,
2024. and fully self-driving vehicles.

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright ©2025 CFRA. This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment
objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment
or implementing the investment strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such investments, if any,
may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on
their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision. Unless
otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.
1
Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Business Summary Jan 30, 2025 Corporate information

CORPORATE OVERVIEW. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, Tesla manufactures and sells high-performance Investor contact
fully electric vehicles and components, as well as various renewable energy products, including solar, T. Axelrod (512 516 8177)
storage, and grid services. TSLA was the first to commercially produce a federally compliant electric vehicle,
which achieved a market-leading range on a single charge. TSLA sells and services its vehicles through a Office
company-owned sales and service network in North America, Europe, and Asia. Its direct-to-consumer 1 Tesla Road, Austin, Texas, 78725
model has significant advantages over the dealership networks of traditional automakers. Tesla has four
reportable segments: Automotive sales (77% of total 2024 revenues), Automotive Leasing (2%), Energy Telephone
Generation & Storage (10%), and Services & Other (11%). At the end of 2023, Tesla had 140,473 employees, 512 516 8177
up from 127,855 at the end of 2022.
Fax
Tesla currently produces six vehicle models: the Model S, X, 3, Y, Cybertruck, and Semi. The Model S is a four- N/A
door, five-adult passenger sedan with a driving range of up to 335 miles on a single electric charge.
Deliveries of the Model S commenced in June 2012. In September 2015, Tesla began deliveries of the Model Website
X, an SUV that seats up to seven adults and offers high-performance features such as a fully electric, all- www.tesla.com
wheel drive dual motor system. In March 2016, the company began accepting deposits on orders for the
Model 3, a mass-market, mid-sized premium electric sedan. Model 3 customer shipments commenced in Officers
July 2017. Tesla experienced numerous challenges in successfully ramping production to meet customer Chief Financial Officer Independent Chairwoman
demand. TSLA’s first delivery of the Model Y, a crossover SUV, took place on March 13, 2020, the first delivery V. Taneja R. M. Denholm
of the Semi on December 1, 2022, and the first delivery of the Cybertruck on November 30, 2023. The
Cybertruck reportedly had a reservation count of over 2 million units. TSLA unveiled the Cybercab on October Co-Founder, Technoking of
10, 2024, a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, expected to cost less than $30K and begin Tesla, CEO & Director
production by the end of 2026. TSLA also unveiled a prototype autonomous Robovan (capable of carrying up E. R. Musk
to 20 passengers) and showed off its newest version of the Optimus robot.
Tesla also sells and leases solar systems to residential and commercial customers, as well as sells Board Members
renewable energy to residential and commercial customers at prices that are typically below utility rates. E. R. Musk J. R. Murdoch
Since 2006, it has installed solar energy systems for hundreds of thousands of customers. The segment
grew significantly via its 2016 acquisition of SolarCity. I. M. Ehrenpreis K. Musk

MARKET PROFILE. Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries totaled 1.789 million units in 2024, 1.809 million in 2023, J. B. Straubel K. Wilson-Thompson
1.314 million in 2022, 936,172 in 2021, 499,647 in 2020, 367,656 in 2019, and 245,506 in 2018. The J. Gebbia R. M. Denholm
breakdown of Tesla’s 2024 vehicle sales was 1,704,093 units for the Model 3 and Model Y and 85,133 units
for all other models (the Model S, Model X, Semi, and Cybertruck). In 2023, the breakdown of Tesla’s total
Domicile Auditor
revenues by country was the U.S. (47%), China (22%), and Other (31%).
Texas PricewaterhouseCoopers
IMPACT OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. In March 2020, TSLA made its first delivery of the Model Y, a crossover LLP
SUV. On November 21, 2019, TSLA introduced the Cybertruck pickup truck with an introductory price of Founded
$39,900 for the standard version, which has a 250-mile range (first deliveries likely in 2023). Longer term, 2003
TSLA also has plans to manufacture an electric Semi-truck and to reintroduce its Roadster, an electric
sports car model that it last produced in 2012. TSLA broke ground on its new factory in Germany in early Employees
2020. On July 22, 2020, Tesla announced that its new U.S. factory would be built near Austin, Texas, with the 125,665
plant expected to build the Cybertruck, Semi, Model 3, and Model Y vehicles for the eastern half of North Stockholders
America. Tesla held a ribbon-cutting ceremony at the Germany factory in March 2022, and the grand 9,512
opening party for the Austin factory took place in April 2022. Construction of a new plant in Monterrey,
Mexico, began around mid-2023.
As of January 29, 2025, the company said its annual installed vehicle production capacity was greater than
2.35 million units, consisting of 650,000 units at its Fremont factory in California (550,000 Model 3 and Y
plus 100,000 for the Model S and X); more than 950,000 units of Model 3/Y capacity at its Shanghai, China
factory; 375,000 units of Model Y capacity at its Berlin factory; and more than 375,000 units at the Austin
plant (250,000+ Model Y plus 125,000+ for the Cybertruck). Tesla says its Semi is currently in pilot
production, and its Next Gen Platform and Roadster are currently in development.
TSLA expects the first production of two new vehicle models in the coming quarters: the Roadster and a
Next-Gen model believed to be its long-anticipated “mass market” coupe model with a price tag in the
range of $25,000. TSLA’s long-term goal is to grow its annual vehicle sales volumes from roughly 500,000
units in 2020 to 20 million units by 2030, which would represent an increase of 40x. We estimate TSLA’s
sales volumes will total 1.90 million in 2025 and 2.20 million in 2026 (vs. 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.81
million in 2023).
FINANCIAL TRENDS. Tesla’s revenues increased from $81.5 billion in 2022 to $96.8 billion in 2023 and $97.7
billion in 2024, driven primarily by increasing vehicle sales. TSLA’s adjusted EPS totaled $4.07 in 2022, $3.12
in 2023, and $2.42 in 2024. In 2024, TSLA posted a 22% decline in adjusted EPS ($2.42 vs. $3.12) on a
revenue increase of 1% (vehicle deliveries were down 1%) and gross margin contraction of 40 bps to 17.9%.
As of December 31, 2024, TSLA had $36.6 billion of cash and equivalents, up from $29.1 billion at the end of
2023. Total debt (excluding vehicle and energy product financing) stood at only $7 million, down from $44
million at year-end 2023.

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without prior written permission. Copyright ©2025 CFRA. 2
Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Quantitative Evaluations Expanded Ratio Analysis

Fair Value Rank 1 2 3 4 5 2024 2023 2022 2021


Lowest Highest Price/Sales 14.46 8.95 5.25 22.16
Based on CFRA's proprietary quantitative model, Price/EBITDA 108.44 63.87 24.84 126.43
stocks are ranked from most overvalued (1) to most Price/Pretax Income 157.13 86.83 31.20 188.04
undervalued (5). P/E Ratio NM 79.64 30.27 NM
Avg. Diluted Shares Outstg. (M) 3,498.00 3,485.00 3,475.00 3,386.00
Fair Value USD Analysis of the stock’s current worth, based on CFRA’s
Calculation 180.72 proprietary quantitative model suggests that TSLA is Figures based on fiscal year-end price
overvalued by USD 81.95 or 31.20%

Volatility LOW AVERAGE HIGH


Key Growth Rates and Averages
Technical BEARISH Since February, 2025, the technical indicators for
Past Growth Rate (%) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
Evaluation TSLA have been BEARISH"
Net Income NM 8.71 52.42
Insider Activity UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL FAVORABLE Sales 0.95 21.98 31.78

Ratio Analysis (Annual Avg.)


Net Margin (%) 7.26 12.72 10.14
% LT Debt to Capitalization 6.34 4.00 9.13
Return on Equity (%) 10.42 23.42 19.22

Company Financials Fiscal year ending Dec 31


Per Share Data (USD) 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Tangible Book Value 22.55 19.53 14.00 9.59 7.54 2.24 1.77 1.51 1.81 0.54
Free Cash Flow 1.12 1.37 2.41 1.68 0.97 0.36 -0.09 -1.66 -0.72 -1.12
Earnings 2.04 4.30 3.62 1.63 0.21 -0.33 -0.38 -0.79 -0.31 -0.46
Earnings (Normalized) 2.42 3.12 4.07 2.26 0.75 0.01 -0.09 -0.58 -0.19 -0.15
Dividends N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Payout Ratio (%) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Prices: High 488.54 299.29 402.67 414.50 239.57 29.02 25.83 25.97 17.96 19.11
Prices: Low 138.80 101.81 108.24 179.83 23.37 11.80 16.31 14.06 9.40 12.09
P/E Ratio: High NM 95.90 98.90 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
P/E Ratio: Low 57.40 32.60 26.60 79.60 31.30 NM NM NM NM NM

Income Statement Analysis (Million USD)


Revenue 97,690 96,773 81,462 53,823 31,536 24,578 21,461 11,759 7,000 4,046
Operating Income 7,659 8,891 13,692 6,523 1,951 80.00 -253.00 -1,632 -646.00 -717.00
Depreciation + Amortization 5,368 4,667 3,543 2,911 2,322 2,092 1,888 1,636 947.00 423.00
Interest Expense 350.00 156.00 191.00 371.00 748.00 725.00 653.00 477.00 192.00 119.00
Pretax Income 8,990 9,973 13,719 6,343 1,154 -665.00 -1,005 -2,209 -746.00 -876.00
Effective Tax Rate 20.40 -50.10 8.30 11.00 25.30 -16.50 -5.80 -1.40 -3.60 -1.50
Net Income 7,091 14,997 12,556 5,519 721.00 NM NM NM NM NM
Net Income (Normalized) 5,921 6,256 8,566 3,839 553.40 NM NM NM NM NM

Balance Sheet and Other Financial Data (Million USD)


Cash 36,563 29,094 22,185 17,707 19,384 6,268 3,686 3,368 3,393 1,197
Current Assets 58,360 49,616 40,917 27,100 26,717 12,103 8,307 6,571 6,260 2,782
Total Assets 122,070 106,618 82,338 62,131 52,148 34,309 29,740 28,655 22,664 8,068
Current Liabilities 28,821 28,748 26,709 19,705 14,248 10,667 9,993 7,675 5,836 2,858
Long Term Debt 5,535 2,682 1,029 4,254 8,571 10,375 8,461 9,486 6,054 2,021
Total Capital 87,303 73,182 51,646 40,456 37,016 22,686 20,141 17,763 14,493 3,983
Capital Expenditures 11,342 8,899 7,163 6,514 3,232 1,432 2,319 4,081 1,440 1,635
Cash from Operations 14,923 13,256 14,724 11,497 5,943 2,405 2,098 -61.00 -124.00 -524.00
Current Ratio 2.02 1.73 1.53 1.38 1.88 1.13 0.83 0.86 1.07 0.97
% Long Term Debt of Capitalization 6.30 3.70 2.00 10.50 23.20 45.70 42.00 53.40 41.80 50.70
% Net Income of Revenue 7.30 15.50 15.40 10.30 2.30 -3.50 -4.50 -16.70 -9.60 -22.00
% Return on Assets 4.19 5.88 11.85 7.13 2.82 0.16 -0.54 -3.98 -2.63 -6.45
% Return on Equity 10.40 27.30 32.50 20.40 5.40 -10.70 -17.80 -38.80 -22.10 -89.10

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data may be preliminary or restated; before results of discontinued operations/special items. Per share data adjusted for stock dividends; EPS diluted.
E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under Review.

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without prior written permission. Copyright ©2025 CFRA. 3
Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Sub-Industry Outlook Industry Performance

CFRA's 12-month fundamental outlook for the Y), while the average APR of 6.8% was down GICS Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Automobile Manufacturers sub-industry is neutral, from 7.4% a year earlier. Sub-Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
with headwinds including difficult Y/Y sales volume We expect higher electric and hybrid vehicle Based on S&P 1500 Indexes
comparables, increased labor costs, above- sales to be a growth driver as numerous new Five-Year market price performance through Mar 08, 2025
average inventory levels, rising incentives, and the models come to market. In 2024, EVs
profitability of electric vehicles. These are accounted for approximately 20% of all new
balanced by positives including expectations for vehicle sales worldwide and 8.1% in the U.S.,
moderating interest rates, fewer supply chain respectively, up from percentages of 15.8%
issues and parts shortages, and still-elevated auto and 7.8% in 2023. EV sales rose by 25%
prices. globally and 7% in the U.S. in 2024.
We estimate global vehicle sales rose by 2.4% to Another major secular trend has been the
94.9 million units in 2024 and will increase growing popularity of pickup trucks and SUVs
another 4.0% to 98.8 million in 2025, versus 92.7 relative to passenger cars. Light duty vehicles
million in 2023 (+11.9% Y/Y). Global vehicle sales accounted for 80.0% of new vehicles sold in
were up 12% in 2023, driven by increases in the U.S. in 2023, up from only 51.2% in 2010.
Europe (+19%) and North America (+13%), The average vehicle on the road in the U.S. hit a
partially offset by Asia Pacific (+10%). As of record-high 12.6 years old in 2024, which
January 21, 2025, the final data for 2024 has not should help support retail parts demand.
yet been released.
Year-to-date through January 17, 2025, the
We estimate U.S. light vehicle sales will increase by S&P Automobile Manufacturers Index was up
approximately 3% to 16.3 million units in 2025 5.0% versus a 2.1% gain for the S&P 1500
and another 1% to 16.5 million units in 2026. In Index. In 2024, the S&P Automobile
2024, U.S. new vehicle sales volume rose 2.2% to Manufacturers Index rose 57.0% versus a
15.85 million units, up from 15.50 million units in 22.2% gain for the S&P 1500 Index, and was
2023. Rising inventory levels and an increase in up 80.2% versus a 23.4% gain for the S&P
promotional activity should help boost sales. U.S. 1500 Index in 2023. The sub-industry's five-
auto sales still have not returned to pre-pandemic year CAGR is 15.0% versus 12.9% growth for
levels, when they exceeded 17 million units for an the S&P 1500 Index.
unprecedented five consecutive years from 2015
to 2019. As of January 6, 2025, U.S. new vehicle / Garrett Nelson
inventories stood at 75 days’ supply, well above
the historic average level of 60 days. NOTE: A sector chart appears when the sub-industry does not have
On the positive side, wage growth and low sufficient historical index data.
unemployment rates should help support vehicle All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on the Global Industry
prices. We think margins will benefit from a Classification Standard (GICS).
combination of still-elevated new vehicle price Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should
realizations ($49,470 in the U.S. in December not be relied upon as such.
2024) and moderating pressures on raw material Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence
costs. However, potential tariffs and higher labor
costs are concerns. Affordability has weighed on
new vehicle sales over the past few years, but
affordability has recently improved to its best level
since August 2021 due to wage gains. According
to Edmunds, the average monthly payment on a
new vehicle loan was $754 in Q4 2024 (+2.0% Y/

Sub-Industry: Automobile Manufacturers Peer Group*: Automobile Manufacturers


Recent 30-Day 1-Year Fair Return
Stock Stock Stk. Mkt. Price Price P/E Value Yield on Equity LTD to
Peer Group Symbol Exchange Currency Price Cap. (M) Chg. (%) Chg. (%) Ratio Calc. (%) (%) Cap (%)

Tesla, Inc. TSLA NasdaqGS USD 263.45 847,391.0 -32.8 49.2 109.0 180.72 N/A 10.4 6.3
Ferrari N.V. RACE NYSE USD 446.70 79,872.0 -2.7 7.2 49.0 N/A 0.7 46.1 27.8
Ford Motor Company F NYSE USD 9.61 38,089.0 -5.4 -22.4 5.0 4.83 6.2 13.4 8.8
General Motors Company GM NYSE USD 47.20 46,964.0 -2.8 17.6 4.0 91.27 1.0 8.9 6.6
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. HMC NYSE USD 28.80 42,652.0 4.6 -20.5 6.0 N/A 3.8 8.7 26.8
Li Auto Inc. LI NasdaqGS USD 27.56 27,491.0 13.6 -27.2 19.0 N/A N/A 17.0 9.6
NIO Inc. NIO NYSE USD 4.24 8,914.0 -3.4 -26.5 NM N/A N/A -117.4 22.6
Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN NasdaqGS USD 11.03 12,472.0 -14.3 N/A NM N/A N/A -60.4 38.4
Stellantis N.V. STLA NYSE USD 12.75 36,824.0 -3.0 -53.1 6.0 N/A 3.9 6.7 19.6
Toyota Motor Corporation TM NYSE USD 187.51 247,547.0 -0.0 -25.7 115.0 N/A 2.6 14.5 30.8
XPeng Inc. XPEV NYSE USD 22.23 21,092.0 30.8 131.6 NM N/A N/A -19.1 13.4

*For Peer Groups with more than 10 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
NA-Not Available; NM-Not Meaningful.
Note: Peers are selected based on Global Industry Classification Standards and market capitalization. The peer group list includes companies with similar characteristics, but may not include all the companies within the same
industry and/or that engage in the same line of business.

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without prior written permission. Copyright ©2025 CFRA. 4
Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Analyst Research Notes and other Company News

January 29, 2025 November 06, 2024


06:31 PM ET... CFRA Reiterates Buy Opinion on Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA 09:17 AM ET... CFRA Raises Opinion on Shares of Tesla Inc. to Buy from Hold (TSLA
389.10****): 251.44****):
We raise our 12-month target by $10 to $540, on a 2026 P/E of 140x, justified by We raise our 12-month target to $375 from $265, based on a 2026 P/E of 100x,
long-term growth expectations. We lower our adjusted EPS estimates by $0.20 to justified by long-term growth expectations. Our estimates are unchanged. TSLA
$2.90 for 2025 and by $0.15 to $3.85 for 2026. TSLA posted Q4 adjusted EPS of shares are trading up 12% in the pre-market following last night’s election results.
$0.73 vs. $0.71 (+3%), four cents below consensus. The miss was driven by weaker- In our view, TSLA and CEO Elon Musk are perhaps the biggest winners from the
than-expected sales and margins, as revenue rose 2% to $25.7B ($1.43B below election result, and we believe Trump’s victory will help expedite regulatory approval
consensus) and gross margin contracted 140 bps to 16.3% (260 bps below of the company’s autonomous driving technology. The stakes were high after Musk
consensus). The shortfall was driven by a steep drop in vehicle price realizations. spent more than $130M to help elect Donald Trump and other Republicans this
Despite the miss, and backing off its prior 2025 vehicle sales growth guidance of election cycle, according to filings. Depending on the outcome of the House, we also
20%-30% (with TSLA now saying it merely expects Auto growth to resume this see risks to current electric vehicle tax credits from changes to existing tax
year), shares jumped after hours as we believe the market is focused more on its legislation, which we think will widen TSLA’s competitive moat by making competing
expectation that TSLA aims to launch unsupervised full self-driving in parts of the EV models even more uneconomic, as we believe TSLA is the only profitable
U.S. later in 2025. We reiterate our Buy rating, with TSLA as one of the primary manufacturer of EVs. For these reasons, we now view TSLA shares as deserving of
beneficiaries of a more accommodating regulatory environment in the U.S. / Garrett higher multiples, but acknowledge challenges in the near term. / Garrett Nelson
Nelson
October 28, 2024
January 02, 2025 01:07 PM ET... CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion on Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA
11:07 AM ET... CFRA Reiterates Buy Opinion on Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA 268.00***):
380.25****): We raise our 12-month target by $40 to $265, based on a 2026 P/E of 70.7x,
We lower our 12-month target price by $30 to $530, based on a 2026 P/E of 132.5x, justified by long-term growth expectations. Our adjusted EPS estimates remain at
justified by our long-term growth expectations. We also lower our EPS to $2.35 from $2.40 for 2024, $3.00 for 2025, and $3.75 for 2026. We raise our target in the
$2.40 for 2024, but keep 2025 and 2026 at $3.10 and $4.00, respectively. This aftermath of the company’s Q3 earnings release and conference call, recognizing
morning, TSLA reported Q4 deliveries of 495,570 vehicles (+2.3% Y/Y), short of the the willingness of investors to pay higher multiples for TSLA shares due to increased
510,000 consensus and our estimate of 516,000. While the quarterly volumes excitement related to the company’s longer-term growth prospects. Valuation has
represented a record high, it was short of consensus. For the full year, TSLA’s always been one of the most vexing issues for TSLA analysts, with bears arguing
deliveries fell 1.1% to 1.79M units, while production was down 3.9% to 1.77M units. that the stock has been unjustifiably overvalued relative to auto industry peers for
On the positive side, TSLA’s energy storage deployments surged 244% to a record many years. We have long argued that TSLA should instead be valued as a 21st
high of 11.0 GWh in Q4. We think this is likely to be a key bottom-line driver for Q4 century, sustainable transportation, energy, and technology company and therefore
given the segment’s relatively strong margins. We recommend buying the dip, as we valuation is more arbitrary. We maintain Hold as we continue to view near-term
expect 2025 to be a year of positive developments related to a federal autonomous headwinds as significant and are skeptical of its ability to achieve 20%-30% vehicle
driving framework, which we expect to drive multiple expansion, more than sales growth in 2025 absent additional price cuts. / Garrett Nelson
offsetting concerns regarding slowing sales growth. / Garrett Nelson
October 23, 2024
December 17, 2024 05:06 PM ET... CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion on Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA
03:21 PM ET... CFRA Reiterates Buy Opinion on Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA 213.65***):
477.00****): We raise our 12-month target by $5 to $225, based on a 2026 P/E of 60x, justified
We raise our 12-month target to $560 from $450, based on a 2026 P/E of 140x. We by long-term growth expectations. We lift our 2024 adjusted EPS view by $0.05 to
increase our EPS estimates to $3.10 from $3.00 for 2025 and to $4.00 from $3.75 $2.40, cut 2025’s by $0.40 to $3.00, and set 2026’s at $3.75. TSLA posted Q3
for 2026. Our estimate revisions reflect both higher revenue related to high-margin adjusted EPS of $0.72 vs. $0.66 (+9%), well ahead of the $0.60 consensus. Revenue
regulatory credits from the expected cancellation of the federal EV tax credit and rose 8% to $25.18M ($490M below consensus) and gross margin expanded 190 bps
lower unit cost assumptions. We anticipate the federal EV tax credit will be to 19.8% (60 bps above consensus). TSLA said that new, more affordable vehicle
discontinued under new tax legislation likely to be passed next year, which we models remain on track for first production in 1H 2025, although few details were
expect to have a disproportionate impact on the sales of non-Tesla EV models. This provided in the press release. In our view, expectations were low heading into the
should benefit TSLA by increasing its automotive regulatory credit revenue due to release after four consecutive bottom-line misses and a Robotaxi Day that left
programs such as California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program, which should investors with more questions than answers. The key question is the sustainability
result in Tesla earning more tradable ZEV credits that other automakers would need of TSLA’s Q3 gross margin. We maintain a Hold rating, as we continue to view TSLA’s
to buy to comply with regulations. These credits have been a major earnings driver valuation as fair. We also think consensus estimates that assume nearly 80% EPS
for Tesla, which posted $2.07 billion of automotive regulatory credit revenue in the growth between 2024 and 2026 are unrealistically high. / Garrett Nelson
first three quarters of 2024 (+53% Y/Y). / Garrett Nelson

December 09, 2024


01:24 PM ET... CFRA Reiterates Buy Opinion on Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA
384.30****):
We raise our 12-month target to $450 from $375, on a 2026 P/E of 120x. TSLA
shares have been on a tear since the U.S. Presidential election, and we see the stock
continuing to ride the positive momentum as its autonomous driving-related
ambitions move closer to becoming a reality. In our view, TSLA’s recent FSD version
13 demonstrates many new features, such as the ability to park autonomously at
the end of a planned route and start FSD from a parked position. We think that such
ongoing improvements will help expedite the timing of TSLA ultimately being
granted a federal autonomous driving permit under the new administration.
Members of President-elect Trump’s transition team have said that implementing a
federal framework for fully autonomous vehicles will be one of the Transportation
Department’s top priorities. While we think TSLA’s 2025 sales growth will be
pressured by an EV inventory glut, lower oil prices, etc., positive autonomous driving-
related developments are a far more important equity driver. / Garrett Nelson

Note: Research notes reflect CFRA's published opinions and analysis on the stock at the time the note was published. The note reflects the views of the equity analyst as of
the date and time indicated in the note, and may not reflect CFRA's current view on the company.
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without prior written permission. Copyright ©2025 CFRA. 5
Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Analysts Recommendations Wall Street Consensus Opinion

Hold

Wall Street Consensus vs. Performance

For fiscal year 2025, analysts estimate that TSLA will earn
USD 2.85. For fiscal year 2026, analysts estimate that
TSLA's earnings per share will grow by 32.52% to USD 3.78.

No. of
Recommendations % of Total 1 Mo.Prior 3 Mos.Prior
Buy 13 25 13 13
Buy/Hold 7 13 7 7
Hold 15 29 15 15
Weak hold 3 6 3 5
Sell 9 17 9 8
No Opinion 5 10 6 7
Total 52 100 53 55

Wall Street Consensus Estimates

Fiscal Year Avg Est. High Est. Low Est. # of Est. Est. P/E
2026 3.78 7.31 2.05 34 69.72
2025 2.85 4.13 1.58 36 92.39
2026 vs. 2025 p 33% p 77% p 30% q -6% q -25%

Q1'26 0.83 1.03 0.70 7 317.96


Q1'25 0.52 0.82 0.24 24 509.51
Q1'26 vs. Q1'25 p 60% p 26% p 192% q -71% q -38%
Forecasts are not reliable indicator of future performance.
Note: A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. S&P Global Market Intelligence organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300 Wall Street analysts, and
provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years, as well as how those earnings estimates have changed over time. Note that the information provided in relation to consensus
estimates is not intended to predict actual results and should not be taken as a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note: For all tables, graphs and charts in this report that do not cite any reference or source, the source is S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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Tesla, Inc.
Glossary

STARS Abbreviations Used in Equity Research Reports


Since January 1, 1987, CFRA Equity and Fund Research Services, and its CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
predecessor S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a universe of U.S. CAPEX - Capital Expenditures
common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs (American CY - Calendar Year
Depositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for future performance. DCF - Discounted Cash Flow
Similarly, we have ranked Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. DDM - Dividend Discount Model
Under proprietary STARS (Stock Appreciation Ranking System), equity analysts EBIT - Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
rank equities according to their individual forecast of an equity's future total EBITDA - Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization
return potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., EPS - Earnings Per Share
a regional index (MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index, MSCI AC Europe Index or S&P 500® EV - Enterprise Value
Index)), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to help FCF - Free Cash Flow
investors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to FFO - Funds From Operations
assist in determining the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst's own FY - Fiscal Year
models as well as internal proprietary models resulting from dynamic data P/E - Price/Earnings
inputs. P/NAV - Price to Net Asset Value
PEG Ratio - P/E-to-Growth Ratio
S&P Global Market Intelligence's Quality Ranking PV - Present Value
(also known as S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rankings) - Growth and R&D - Research & Development
S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rankings stability of earnings and dividends ROCE - Return on Capital Employed
are deemed key elements in establishing S&P Global Market Intelligence's ROE Return on Equity
earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are designed to ROI - Return on Investment
capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, ROIC - Return on Invested Capital
however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments ROA - Return on Assets
and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final SG&A - Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
score for each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by SOTP - Sum-of-The-Parts
analysis of the scores of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range WACC - Weighted Average Cost of Capital
of scores in the array of this sample has been aligned with the following ladder
of rankings: Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository
Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).
A+ Highest B Below Average
Qualitative Risk Assessment
A High B- Lower
A Above C Lowest
Reflects an equity analyst's view of a given company's operational risk, or the
risk of a firm's ability to continue as an ongoing concern. The Qualitative Risk
B+ Average D In Reorganization
Assessment is a relative ranking to the U.S. STARS universe, and should be
NC Not Ranked reflective of risk factors related to a company's operations, as opposed to risk
and volatility measures associated with share prices. For an ETF this reflects on
EPS Estimates a capitalization-weighted basis, the average qualitative risk assessment
CFRA's earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect analyst projections of future assigned to holdings of the fund.
EPS from continuing operations, and generally exclude various items that are
viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. Also, EPS estimates reflect STARS Ranking system and definition:
either forecasts of equity analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, ««««« 5-STARS (Strong Buy):
which are independently compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a data Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark,
provider to CFRA. Among the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are by a notable margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on
asset sale gains; impairment, restructuring or merger-related charges; legal an absolute basis.
and insurance settlements; in process research and development expenses; ««««« 4-STARS (Buy):
gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt; the cumulative effect of Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark
accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that have been over the coming 12 months.
classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such
as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and ««««« 3-STARS (Hold):
depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a relevant
to which some types of data is disclosed by companies. benchmark over the coming 12 months.
««««« 2-STARS (Sell):
12-Month Target Price Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant
The equity analyst's projection of the market price a given security will benchmark over the coming 12 months.
command 12 months hence, based on a combination of intrinsic, relative, and
««««« 1-STAR (Strong Sell):
private market valuation metrics.
Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant
benchmark by a notable margin over the coming 12 months, with shares falling
in price on an absolute basis.
Relevant benchmarks:
In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500 Index, in Europe and
in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are the MSCI AC Europe Index and the MSCI AC
Asia Pacific Index, respectively.

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Tesla, Inc.
Disclosures

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This report is not intended to, and does not, constitute an offer or solicitation to buy and sell
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