CFRAStock Report
CFRAStock Report
Tesla, Inc.
Recommendation Price 12-Mo. Target Price Report Currency Investment Style
BUY « « « « « USD 262.67 (as of market close Mar 07, 2025) USD 540.00 USD Large-Cap Growth
Equity Analyst Garrett Nelson
GICS Sector Consumer Discretionary Summary Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells high-performance fully electric vehicles
Sub-Industry Automobile Manufacturers (EVs) and components, as well as a full suite of renewable energy products.
Key Stock Statistics (Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), Company Reports)
52-Wk Range USD 488.54 - 138.8 Oper.EPS2025E USD 2.90 Market Capitalization[B] USD 847.39 Beta 2.51
Trailing 12-Month EPS USD 2.42 Oper.EPS2026E USD 3.85 Yield [%] N/A 3-yr Proj. EPS CAGR[%] 7
Trailing 12-Month P/E 108.54 P/E on Oper.EPS2025E 90.58 Dividend Rate/Share N/A SPGMI's Quality Ranking B-
USD 10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago 54,542.0 Common Shares Outstg.[M] 3,216.00 Trailing 12-Month Dividend N/A Institutional Ownership [%] 48.0
Revenue/Earnings Data
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Business Summary Jan 30, 2025 Corporate information
CORPORATE OVERVIEW. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, Tesla manufactures and sells high-performance Investor contact
fully electric vehicles and components, as well as various renewable energy products, including solar, T. Axelrod (512 516 8177)
storage, and grid services. TSLA was the first to commercially produce a federally compliant electric vehicle,
which achieved a market-leading range on a single charge. TSLA sells and services its vehicles through a Office
company-owned sales and service network in North America, Europe, and Asia. Its direct-to-consumer 1 Tesla Road, Austin, Texas, 78725
model has significant advantages over the dealership networks of traditional automakers. Tesla has four
reportable segments: Automotive sales (77% of total 2024 revenues), Automotive Leasing (2%), Energy Telephone
Generation & Storage (10%), and Services & Other (11%). At the end of 2023, Tesla had 140,473 employees, 512 516 8177
up from 127,855 at the end of 2022.
Fax
Tesla currently produces six vehicle models: the Model S, X, 3, Y, Cybertruck, and Semi. The Model S is a four- N/A
door, five-adult passenger sedan with a driving range of up to 335 miles on a single electric charge.
Deliveries of the Model S commenced in June 2012. In September 2015, Tesla began deliveries of the Model Website
X, an SUV that seats up to seven adults and offers high-performance features such as a fully electric, all- www.tesla.com
wheel drive dual motor system. In March 2016, the company began accepting deposits on orders for the
Model 3, a mass-market, mid-sized premium electric sedan. Model 3 customer shipments commenced in Officers
July 2017. Tesla experienced numerous challenges in successfully ramping production to meet customer Chief Financial Officer Independent Chairwoman
demand. TSLA’s first delivery of the Model Y, a crossover SUV, took place on March 13, 2020, the first delivery V. Taneja R. M. Denholm
of the Semi on December 1, 2022, and the first delivery of the Cybertruck on November 30, 2023. The
Cybertruck reportedly had a reservation count of over 2 million units. TSLA unveiled the Cybercab on October Co-Founder, Technoking of
10, 2024, a two-seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, expected to cost less than $30K and begin Tesla, CEO & Director
production by the end of 2026. TSLA also unveiled a prototype autonomous Robovan (capable of carrying up E. R. Musk
to 20 passengers) and showed off its newest version of the Optimus robot.
Tesla also sells and leases solar systems to residential and commercial customers, as well as sells Board Members
renewable energy to residential and commercial customers at prices that are typically below utility rates. E. R. Musk J. R. Murdoch
Since 2006, it has installed solar energy systems for hundreds of thousands of customers. The segment
grew significantly via its 2016 acquisition of SolarCity. I. M. Ehrenpreis K. Musk
MARKET PROFILE. Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries totaled 1.789 million units in 2024, 1.809 million in 2023, J. B. Straubel K. Wilson-Thompson
1.314 million in 2022, 936,172 in 2021, 499,647 in 2020, 367,656 in 2019, and 245,506 in 2018. The J. Gebbia R. M. Denholm
breakdown of Tesla’s 2024 vehicle sales was 1,704,093 units for the Model 3 and Model Y and 85,133 units
for all other models (the Model S, Model X, Semi, and Cybertruck). In 2023, the breakdown of Tesla’s total
Domicile Auditor
revenues by country was the U.S. (47%), China (22%), and Other (31%).
Texas PricewaterhouseCoopers
IMPACT OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. In March 2020, TSLA made its first delivery of the Model Y, a crossover LLP
SUV. On November 21, 2019, TSLA introduced the Cybertruck pickup truck with an introductory price of Founded
$39,900 for the standard version, which has a 250-mile range (first deliveries likely in 2023). Longer term, 2003
TSLA also has plans to manufacture an electric Semi-truck and to reintroduce its Roadster, an electric
sports car model that it last produced in 2012. TSLA broke ground on its new factory in Germany in early Employees
2020. On July 22, 2020, Tesla announced that its new U.S. factory would be built near Austin, Texas, with the 125,665
plant expected to build the Cybertruck, Semi, Model 3, and Model Y vehicles for the eastern half of North Stockholders
America. Tesla held a ribbon-cutting ceremony at the Germany factory in March 2022, and the grand 9,512
opening party for the Austin factory took place in April 2022. Construction of a new plant in Monterrey,
Mexico, began around mid-2023.
As of January 29, 2025, the company said its annual installed vehicle production capacity was greater than
2.35 million units, consisting of 650,000 units at its Fremont factory in California (550,000 Model 3 and Y
plus 100,000 for the Model S and X); more than 950,000 units of Model 3/Y capacity at its Shanghai, China
factory; 375,000 units of Model Y capacity at its Berlin factory; and more than 375,000 units at the Austin
plant (250,000+ Model Y plus 125,000+ for the Cybertruck). Tesla says its Semi is currently in pilot
production, and its Next Gen Platform and Roadster are currently in development.
TSLA expects the first production of two new vehicle models in the coming quarters: the Roadster and a
Next-Gen model believed to be its long-anticipated “mass market” coupe model with a price tag in the
range of $25,000. TSLA’s long-term goal is to grow its annual vehicle sales volumes from roughly 500,000
units in 2020 to 20 million units by 2030, which would represent an increase of 40x. We estimate TSLA’s
sales volumes will total 1.90 million in 2025 and 2.20 million in 2026 (vs. 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.81
million in 2023).
FINANCIAL TRENDS. Tesla’s revenues increased from $81.5 billion in 2022 to $96.8 billion in 2023 and $97.7
billion in 2024, driven primarily by increasing vehicle sales. TSLA’s adjusted EPS totaled $4.07 in 2022, $3.12
in 2023, and $2.42 in 2024. In 2024, TSLA posted a 22% decline in adjusted EPS ($2.42 vs. $3.12) on a
revenue increase of 1% (vehicle deliveries were down 1%) and gross margin contraction of 40 bps to 17.9%.
As of December 31, 2024, TSLA had $36.6 billion of cash and equivalents, up from $29.1 billion at the end of
2023. Total debt (excluding vehicle and energy product financing) stood at only $7 million, down from $44
million at year-end 2023.
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Quantitative Evaluations Expanded Ratio Analysis
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data may be preliminary or restated; before results of discontinued operations/special items. Per share data adjusted for stock dividends; EPS diluted.
E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under Review.
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Sub-Industry Outlook Industry Performance
CFRA's 12-month fundamental outlook for the Y), while the average APR of 6.8% was down GICS Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Automobile Manufacturers sub-industry is neutral, from 7.4% a year earlier. Sub-Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
with headwinds including difficult Y/Y sales volume We expect higher electric and hybrid vehicle Based on S&P 1500 Indexes
comparables, increased labor costs, above- sales to be a growth driver as numerous new Five-Year market price performance through Mar 08, 2025
average inventory levels, rising incentives, and the models come to market. In 2024, EVs
profitability of electric vehicles. These are accounted for approximately 20% of all new
balanced by positives including expectations for vehicle sales worldwide and 8.1% in the U.S.,
moderating interest rates, fewer supply chain respectively, up from percentages of 15.8%
issues and parts shortages, and still-elevated auto and 7.8% in 2023. EV sales rose by 25%
prices. globally and 7% in the U.S. in 2024.
We estimate global vehicle sales rose by 2.4% to Another major secular trend has been the
94.9 million units in 2024 and will increase growing popularity of pickup trucks and SUVs
another 4.0% to 98.8 million in 2025, versus 92.7 relative to passenger cars. Light duty vehicles
million in 2023 (+11.9% Y/Y). Global vehicle sales accounted for 80.0% of new vehicles sold in
were up 12% in 2023, driven by increases in the U.S. in 2023, up from only 51.2% in 2010.
Europe (+19%) and North America (+13%), The average vehicle on the road in the U.S. hit a
partially offset by Asia Pacific (+10%). As of record-high 12.6 years old in 2024, which
January 21, 2025, the final data for 2024 has not should help support retail parts demand.
yet been released.
Year-to-date through January 17, 2025, the
We estimate U.S. light vehicle sales will increase by S&P Automobile Manufacturers Index was up
approximately 3% to 16.3 million units in 2025 5.0% versus a 2.1% gain for the S&P 1500
and another 1% to 16.5 million units in 2026. In Index. In 2024, the S&P Automobile
2024, U.S. new vehicle sales volume rose 2.2% to Manufacturers Index rose 57.0% versus a
15.85 million units, up from 15.50 million units in 22.2% gain for the S&P 1500 Index, and was
2023. Rising inventory levels and an increase in up 80.2% versus a 23.4% gain for the S&P
promotional activity should help boost sales. U.S. 1500 Index in 2023. The sub-industry's five-
auto sales still have not returned to pre-pandemic year CAGR is 15.0% versus 12.9% growth for
levels, when they exceeded 17 million units for an the S&P 1500 Index.
unprecedented five consecutive years from 2015
to 2019. As of January 6, 2025, U.S. new vehicle / Garrett Nelson
inventories stood at 75 days’ supply, well above
the historic average level of 60 days. NOTE: A sector chart appears when the sub-industry does not have
On the positive side, wage growth and low sufficient historical index data.
unemployment rates should help support vehicle All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on the Global Industry
prices. We think margins will benefit from a Classification Standard (GICS).
combination of still-elevated new vehicle price Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should
realizations ($49,470 in the U.S. in December not be relied upon as such.
2024) and moderating pressures on raw material Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence
costs. However, potential tariffs and higher labor
costs are concerns. Affordability has weighed on
new vehicle sales over the past few years, but
affordability has recently improved to its best level
since August 2021 due to wage gains. According
to Edmunds, the average monthly payment on a
new vehicle loan was $754 in Q4 2024 (+2.0% Y/
Tesla, Inc. TSLA NasdaqGS USD 263.45 847,391.0 -32.8 49.2 109.0 180.72 N/A 10.4 6.3
Ferrari N.V. RACE NYSE USD 446.70 79,872.0 -2.7 7.2 49.0 N/A 0.7 46.1 27.8
Ford Motor Company F NYSE USD 9.61 38,089.0 -5.4 -22.4 5.0 4.83 6.2 13.4 8.8
General Motors Company GM NYSE USD 47.20 46,964.0 -2.8 17.6 4.0 91.27 1.0 8.9 6.6
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. HMC NYSE USD 28.80 42,652.0 4.6 -20.5 6.0 N/A 3.8 8.7 26.8
Li Auto Inc. LI NasdaqGS USD 27.56 27,491.0 13.6 -27.2 19.0 N/A N/A 17.0 9.6
NIO Inc. NIO NYSE USD 4.24 8,914.0 -3.4 -26.5 NM N/A N/A -117.4 22.6
Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN NasdaqGS USD 11.03 12,472.0 -14.3 N/A NM N/A N/A -60.4 38.4
Stellantis N.V. STLA NYSE USD 12.75 36,824.0 -3.0 -53.1 6.0 N/A 3.9 6.7 19.6
Toyota Motor Corporation TM NYSE USD 187.51 247,547.0 -0.0 -25.7 115.0 N/A 2.6 14.5 30.8
XPeng Inc. XPEV NYSE USD 22.23 21,092.0 30.8 131.6 NM N/A N/A -19.1 13.4
*For Peer Groups with more than 10 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
NA-Not Available; NM-Not Meaningful.
Note: Peers are selected based on Global Industry Classification Standards and market capitalization. The peer group list includes companies with similar characteristics, but may not include all the companies within the same
industry and/or that engage in the same line of business.
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Analyst Research Notes and other Company News
Note: Research notes reflect CFRA's published opinions and analysis on the stock at the time the note was published. The note reflects the views of the equity analyst as of
the date and time indicated in the note, and may not reflect CFRA's current view on the company.
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Analysts Recommendations Wall Street Consensus Opinion
Hold
For fiscal year 2025, analysts estimate that TSLA will earn
USD 2.85. For fiscal year 2026, analysts estimate that
TSLA's earnings per share will grow by 32.52% to USD 3.78.
No. of
Recommendations % of Total 1 Mo.Prior 3 Mos.Prior
Buy 13 25 13 13
Buy/Hold 7 13 7 7
Hold 15 29 15 15
Weak hold 3 6 3 5
Sell 9 17 9 8
No Opinion 5 10 6 7
Total 52 100 53 55
Fiscal Year Avg Est. High Est. Low Est. # of Est. Est. P/E
2026 3.78 7.31 2.05 34 69.72
2025 2.85 4.13 1.58 36 92.39
2026 vs. 2025 p 33% p 77% p 30% q -6% q -25%
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
Glossary
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
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Stock Report | March 08, 2025 | NasdaqGSSymbol: TSLA | TSLA is in the S&P 500
Tesla, Inc.
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