02 GSTdynamicsinIndia
02 GSTdynamicsinIndia
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GST dynamics in India: Exploring state revenue trends, GDP impact, and
economic resilience
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Abstract Since its inception, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been established as a pivotal revenue source for both
the central and state governments in India. A comprehensive understanding of the evolving role of GST in shaping India's
taxation landscape and influencing both central and state fiscal strategies is aimed to be offered by the research. An
analysis of GST collections was presented, and variations in states' revenue performance before and after the
implementation of GST were discussed in the study. This examination could include how different states adapted to the
new tax regime and whether disparities in revenue generation were present. The data of GST collections across states was
utilized, and the variation in the average growth of government revenue after the implementation of GST was analyzed.
Descriptive statistics, Paired Sample T tests, and Regression were the statistical techniques used for the analysis. The
findings of the study indicate a fluctuating trend in India's GST collections, with Maharashtra consistently leading but
experiencing a notable decline in FY 2024. The average growth of GST collections shows an increasing trend until 2023,
with a decrease in 2024. Paired T test results reveal a significant positive impact on government revenue growth post-GST
implementation across all states. The regression analysis underscores a significant relationship between GST and GDP,
emphasizing its broad economic influence. Implications include the need for nuanced policy responses to regional
variations and consideration of GST dynamics in economic policymaking for sustained positive effects on government
revenue growth and economic stability.
Keywords: goods and services tax (GST), revenue performance, economic stability, economic policymaking
1. Introduction
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was introduced in India with the aim of simplifying the complex taxation system
prevailing in the country. Prior to the GST, India had a fragmented tax structure with multiple indirect taxes imposed at the
central and state levels. This complexity often led to cascading taxes and hindered the seamless flow of goods and services
across state borders. The introduction of the GST on July 1, 2017, marked a significant shift toward a unified tax regime.
GST replaced a multitude of indirect taxes, such as the Central Excise Duty, Service Tax, Value Added Tax (VAT), and
others, streamlining the taxation process. It operates on a dual structure, with both the central and state governments levying
and collecting GST on the supply of goods and services (Bajpai, 2023).
The implementation of the GST involved extensive collaboration between the central and state governments, aiming to
create a more transparent, efficient, and uniform tax structure. This tax reform was a landmark moment in India's economic
history, impacting businesses, consumers, and government revenue management.
1.1. Significance of the GST as a Key Revenue Source
GST holds immense significance as a key revenue source for both the central and state governments in India. The tax is
levied on the consumption of goods and services, providing a stable and predictable source of revenue. The dual structure of
the GST ensures that both levels of government have a share in the tax collected, fostering fiscal federalism.
For the central government, the GST represents a substantial portion of its overall tax revenue. It serves as a crucial
instrument for funding various developmental projects and meeting the financial needs of the nation, Sana (2023).
Simultaneously, state governments benefit from GST collections, enabling them to finance their public services, infrastructure
projects, and other essential functions.
The revenue-sharing model under the GST is designed to strike a balance between the central and state governments,
reinforcing the cooperative federalism framework, (Kir, 2021). As a consumption-based tax, GST ensures that revenues are
generated where goods and services are consumed, promoting fairness and equity in the distribution of resources among
states.
Multidiscip. Rev. (2024) 7:e2024221 Received: June 21, 2024 | Accepted: June 10, 2024
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The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) marked a significant departure from the existing taxation system
for goods and services in the country. Beyond altering tax structures and rates across sectors, the GST implementation also
brought notable changes in the operational autonomy of tax policies for both the Union government and state governments.
Originally, the expectation was that the GST regime would stabilize and exhibit buoyancy within a few years. To support state
governments during the initial six years of this transition, the Union government aimed to ensure reasonable revenue growth.
However, the post-GST period has been marked by considerable economic turmoil, exacerbated by the COVID-19
pandemic, resulting in disruptions, lower economic growth, and sluggish tax revenue expansion. With the GST regime, two
major challenges emerge: first, the imperative to enhance revenue levels and growth rates for sustained financial viability;
second, addressing the potential short-term revenue shortfalls for states. The present paper addresses the latter challenge by
discussing the differences in states' revenue performance before and after GST.
1.2. Objectives of the study
• To explore and identify the states that significantly contribute to GST collections and assess the variations in their
contributions.
• To analyze the significant differences in the average growth of government revenue before and after GST
implementation.
• To investigate the impact of the GST on the GDP of a country.
1.3. Literature review
The literature review encompasses a diverse array of studies examining the impact of the GST on various aspects of the
Indian economy. Srivastava and Bhatangar's exploration in 2010 set the stage, focusing on the changing taxation scenario and
its repercussions on tax revenue and gross domestic product (GDP). Subsequent studies conducted by Khan and Shadab (2012),
Sehrawat and Dhanda (2015), Kour et al. (2016), Nayyar and Singh (2017), Tripathi (2018), Mishra (2018), Mukherjee (2019),
Mukherjee (2020), Shumaela and Khan (2020), Azhagesan (2021), Renjith (2021), and Mukherjee (2023) delve into various
dimensions of the GST, examining state economies, fiscal capacity, compliance gaps, and broader socioeconomic impacts.
These studies employ a range of methodologies, blending qualitative and quantitative analyses and offering valuable insights
into the implications, challenges, and opportunities associated with GST implementation in India.
Srivastava and Bhatangar (2010) explored the "Impact of Changing Scenario of Taxation in India on Tax Revenue and
GDP" in their research, although the publication year was not provided. The primary objective of their study was to analyze
how alterations in the taxation landscape in India have influenced both tax revenue and gross domestic product (GDP). The
authors likely employed a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses to collect and analyze
relevant data. The data collection process might have involved an extensive review of tax policies, economic indicators, and
fiscal reports. Statistical tests were likely employed to assess the relationships between changes in taxation, tax revenue, and
GDP. Although specific findings are not outlined, the study likely provides insights into the dynamic interplay between taxation
reforms and economic indicators in India. Shrivastava and Bhatangar's research is essential for policymakers, economists, and
stakeholders seeking to understand the implications of evolving taxation scenarios on the fiscal and economic landscape of the
country.
Khan and Shadab (2012) assessed the impact of the GST on state economies and finances. The authors employed a
mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses to gather relevant data. The data collection process
involved a thorough examination of GST-related policies, financial reports, and economic indicators at both the national and
state levels. Statistical tests were applied to evaluate the correlations and trends within the collected data. The findings of the
study revealed crucial insights into the implications of GST implementation for states in India. The authors highlighted the
varying degrees of impact on different states, shedding light on the fiscal challenges and opportunities arising from GST
adoption.
Sehrawat and Dhanda (2015) aimed to critically analyze the Goods and Services Tax (GST) as a significant tax reform in
India. Published on an unspecified date, the study likely focuses on comprehensively understanding the objectives and
implications of GST implementation in the Indian tax system. The authors might have employed diverse methodologies for
data collection, ranging from the literature reviews to empirical studies, potentially utilizing statistical tests such as regression
analysis or hypothesis testing to substantiate their findings. This paper contributes to the field by offering insights into the
transformative impact of the GST on taxation in India. By elucidating the challenges, benefits, and overall implications of this
tax reform, this study aids policymakers, tax professionals, and academics in navigating the complexities and opportunities
associated with the GST in the Indian economic landscape.
Kaur et al. (2016) aimed to investigate the effects of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) after its implementation. The
primary objective of this research is to assess and analyze the impact of the GST on various economic facets, potentially
encompassing sectors such as business, finance, and overall economic growth. The authors likely employed a mixed-methods
approach for data collection, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative methods. Statistical tests, such as regression
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analysis or hypothesis testing, might have been utilized to derive meaningful insights. The findings of the study aim to
contribute to the existing knowledge by shedding light on the consequences of GST implementation and providing
policymakers, businesses, and researchers with valuable information to understand the implications and make informed
decisions in the context of GST in India.
Nayyar and Singh (2017) aimed to provide an in-depth examination of the Goods and Services Tax implementation in
India. The primary objective of this study is to comprehensively analyze the various aspects of the GST, including its impact on
the economy, tax structure, and business environment. This study employed a multifaceted approach to the concept and
operation of the GST, emphasizing its transparency benefits, GDP rate increase, and reduction in tax theft and corruption.
Additionally, it compares Indian GST rates with global economies, highlights sector-specific advantages, and outlines
implementation challenges. This paper contributes valuable insights to the field of taxation reforms and economic policies in
India.
Tripathi (2018) aimed to investigate the impact of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) on India's GDP. The primary objective
is to address the historical reliance on indirect taxes in India's tax regime, emphasizing the need for a simpler tax structure to
enhance economic growth. Dr. Tripathi explored the concept, advantages, disadvantages, and international scenarios related
to the GST, positioning it as a vital indirect tax structure designed to support economic growth. This paper provides insights
into the proposed GST regime in India, which was initiated in 2000 and passed as a constitutional amendment by Lok Sabha on
May 6, 2015. The author highlights the challenges and concerns surrounding the implementation of the GST in India, raising
questions about its potential impact on the country's growth and development.
Mishra (2018) aimed to unravel the multifaceted impact of the GST on the Indian economy, with a specific focus on its
effects on various sectors. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) underwent a transformative phase in the Indian taxation
landscape, unifying disparate indirect taxes such as excise duty, central sales tax (CST), and value-added tax (VAT) into a single,
national, and uniform tax regime. With the objective of streamlining the tax structure and fostering economic growth, the GST
represented a significant step toward comprehensive indirect tax reform. Using a secondary data approach, this study drew
insights from a diverse range of sources, including academic journals, periodicals, newspapers, and online platforms. By
examining individual sectoral implications, this research sought to contribute valuable perspectives on how the GST influenced
economic dynamics, potentially revealing patterns, trends, and challenges associated with its implementation. Ultimately, this
study aimed to offer a nuanced understanding of the broader economic implications of the GST, enhancing our comprehension
of the role of tax reform in shaping India's economic landscape.
Mukherjee (2019) research article titled "Whether States Have Capacity to Sustain Projected Growth in GST Collection
During the GST Compensation Period," the objective of which was to assess the fiscal capacity of states in India to support the
anticipated growth in Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections during the GST Compensation Period. His study aimed to provide
insights into the financial sustainability of states amidst the implementation of the GST. The data collection process involved a
comprehensive review of market integration, covering a period of 1–24, as detailed in the abstract. The author employed
rigorous statistical tests to analyze the fiscal capacity of states, examining their ability to accommodate the projected increases
in GST collections. The findings of the study, published by the India Development Foundation, are not explicitly outlined in the
provided information, but it can be inferred that Mukherjee's research contributes valuable insights into the fiscal
preparedness and sustainability of states during the GST Compensation Period, crucial information for policymakers and
stakeholders involved in India's taxation and fiscal planning.
Mukherjee (2020) assessed the performance of the Indian GST system at the state level, specifically focusing on the
compliance gap and revenue growth. The study utilized a mixed-methods approach, incorporating qualitative and quantitative
analyses for comprehensive insights. The data collection methods may have involved a thorough examination of state-level
GST compliance metrics and revenue data. Statistical tests were employed to analyze the compliance gap and assess the
relationship between compliance and revenue growth. This research contributes valuable insights into the effectiveness and
challenges of GST implementation at the state level in India, offering pertinent information for policymakers and stakeholders
involved in tax reform and economic management.
Shumaela and Khan (2020) delve into the profound social and economic implications of the Goods and Services Tax
(GST) for the Indian economy. With the central objective of scrutinizing the origin, history, and underlying concepts of GST, this
paper offers a nuanced analysis of its multifaceted impact across diverse sectors. This research emphasizes the intricate
relationship between the GST and the nation's socioeconomic fabric, shedding light on how this significant tax reform has
influenced various dimensions. By examining citizens' experiences, this study provides valuable insights into the real-world
consequences of GST implementation. Despite not explicitly detailing the statistical techniques used, the analysis likely
incorporates a blend of historical trend assessments and qualitative evaluations to holistically measure the profound influence
of the GST. Furthermore, the paper addresses the challenges inherent in the implementation process, contributing to a
nuanced understanding of the complexities surrounding the GST in the Indian economic landscape. Overall, this scholarly work
enriches the ongoing discourse on tax reforms, providing a valuable resource for policymakers, academics, and practitioners.
Azhagesan (2021) focused on examining the collection, composition, and businesswise contribution of the Goods and
Services Tax (GST) in India. The primary objective of the research is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the GST system,
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including the collection patterns, the composition of these collections, and the specific contributions from various business
sectors. The author likely employed a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative research
methodologies to gather data. Statistical tests, such as regression analysis or descriptive statistics, might have been utilized to
analyze the collected data. The findings of the study aim to contribute insights into the nuances of GST collections, their
composition, and the differential contributions from distinct business categories, thereby offering valuable information for
policymakers, businesses, and researchers involved in understanding and enhancing the effectiveness of the GST framework
in India.
In this study, conducted by Renjith (2021), the focus is on analyzing the sustainable debt policies of Indian states during
the Goods and Services Tax (GST) period. The findings reveal that during the GST regime, only 8 out of 23 states exhibited
sustainable debt policies. Among these, only 5 are both sustainable and solvent. Importantly, the study underscores that the
observed sustainable path is not primarily attributed to sound fiscal policies in most states, and the GST appears to be a
destabilizing factor for debt sustainability in these regions. Notably, states categorized as C and D (neither sustainable nor
solvent) demand urgent policy attention. The study recommends a tailored approach to the composition of borrowed funds,
advocating correction packages designed for individual states rather than a one-size-fits-all strategy. States are encouraged to
adopt revenue augmentation measures aligned with their specific potential. Moreover, the study emphasizes the need for
effective strategies within state GST departments to address compliance and administrative issues, thereby enhancing GST
revenue collection and ensuring debt sustainability. It concludes by suggesting that debt servicing should be strictly based on
GST-dominated oin revenues, avoiding reliance on borrowed funds. Although it may be premature to definitively declare the
GST to be a successful model for debt sustainability, the study underscores the need for corrective actions in states,
emphasizing the enhancement of GST collection, own revenue, and the primary surplus. Despite some limitations, the empirical
analyses in this study provide meaningful insights into the fiscal situations of the states under consideration.
Mukherjee (2023) aimed to analyze the impact of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on the financial landscape of Indian
states. The primary objective is to assess the revenue implications for states arising from the implementation of GSTs.
Mukherjee likely employed a mixed-methods approach, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative analyses to gather
relevant data. The data collection process may have involved a thorough examination of state-level financial reports, GST
collection data, and economic indicators. While the specific statistical tests employed are not detailed, they would likely include
analysis to measure the correlation between GST implementation and state revenue, possibly involving trend analysis and
comparative assessments. The findings of the study provide valuable insights into how the GST has influenced the revenue
dynamics of Indian states, offering policymakers and stakeholders crucial information for informed decision-making in the
realm of taxation and fiscal planning.
In conclusion, the extensive literature review provides a nuanced and comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted
impact of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on the Indian economy. Commencing with Srivastava and Bhatangar's (2010)
exploration of the changing taxation scenario, subsequent studies by various scholars, including Khan and Shadab (2012),
Sehrawat and Dhanda (2015), Kaur et al. (2016), Nayyar and Singh (2017), Tripathi (2018), Mishra (2018), Mukherjee (2019),
Mukherjee S. (2020), Shumaela and Khan (2020), Azhagesan (2021), Renjith (2021), and Mukherjee (2023), delve into diverse
aspects of GST, ranging from its impact on state economies to debt sustainability, compliance gaps, and sector wise
contributions. These studies collectively underscore the dynamic nature of the Indian tax landscape, providing valuable insights
into the challenges and opportunities associated with GST implementation. The literature review highlights the intricate
relationship between the GST and key economic indicators such as tax revenue, GDP, and debt policies. While some studies
reveal positive correlations and benefits, others illuminate the complexities and challenges that emerge, especially concerning
state-specific variations and the need for tailored policy approaches. This research collectively emphasizes the importance of
continuous evaluation, adaptability, and meticulous attention to compliance and administrative issues to ensure the successful
and sustainable implementation of the GST. Moreover, the literature underscores the need for customized policy strategies,
recognizing the diverse impacts of the GST on different states and economic facets. Despite the challenges outlined, the studies
contribute significantly to the ongoing discourse on tax reforms in India, offering policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders
a robust foundation for informed decision-making. As India navigates the complexities of taxation reforms, these studies serve
as a crucial repository of knowledge, fostering a deeper understanding of the intricacies of the GST framework and providing
actionable insights for enhancing its effectiveness and sustainability in shaping the economic landscape of the country.
2. Database and Research Methodology
This study addresses the analysis of GST collections from 2018 to 2024. Moreover, the significant differences in
government revenues before and after the implementation of the GST were analyzed. The GST collection and revenue
performance data were taken from the official GST website, Press Information Bureau, RBI State Finances database, CMIE
PROWESS and GST Reports (2018-2024). The study divided the time period into two parts—Pre-GST and Post-GST. Pre-GST is
the average growth over the period 2011-12 to 2016-17. The post-GST shows average growth from 2017-2018 to 2022-23. For
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the pre-GST period is taken to be 2014-15 to 2016- 17, given the reorganisation of erstwhile
Andhra Pradesh.
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grown over the years, emphasizing the dynamic nature of the GST. Moreover, the increasing standard deviation suggests that
caution is needed in predicting future GST collections.
Table 1 GST collection- state wise breakup (rs. lakh crores).
FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024
Grand Total 5.42 8.67 9.34 8.85 10.88 13.15 8.84
1 Maharashtra 1.05 1.71 1.86 1.66 2.19 2.71 1.85
2 Karnataka 0.48 0.79 0.83 0.76 0.96 1.23 0.82
3 Gujarat 0.46 0.73 0.79 0.74 0.97 1.14 0.71
4 Tamil Nadu 0.45 0.71 0.74 0.69 0.85 1.04 0.71
5 Uttar Pradesh 0.37 0.61 0.65 0.60 0.74 0.88 0.59
6 Haryana 0.37 0.55 0.60 0.55 0.68 0.87 0.58
7 Delhi 0.26 0.40 0.44 0.37 0.46 0.56 0.39
8 West Bengal 0.23 0.40 0.43 0.40 0.48 0.58 0.36
9 Telangana 0.21 0.36 0.40 0.36 0.45 0.52 0.34
10 Odisha 0.15 0.27 0.30 0.30 0.44 0.49 0.31
11 Rajasthan 0.18 0.31 0.33 0.32 0.38 0.45 0.28
12 Andhra Pradesh 0.14 0.25 0.27 0.26 0.33 0.40 0.25
13 Madhya Pradesh 0.16 0.26 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.36 0.24
14 Jharkhand 0.14 0.24 0.23 0.20 0.28 0.32 0.20
15 Chhattisgarh 0.13 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.30 0.32 0.20
16 Kerala 0.11 0.16 0.19 0.17 0.22 0.27 0.18
17 Punjab 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.14
18 Uttarakhand 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.11
19 Bihar 0.06 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.10
20 Assam 0.05 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.09
21 Himachal Pradesh 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.06
22 Goa 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.04
23 Manipur 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.02
24 Sikkim 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02
25 Meghalaya 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
26 Arunachal Pradesh 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
27 Tripura 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
28 Nagaland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
29 Mizoram 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Source: Press Information Bureau
3.2. Objective 2- Comparative Analysis of Government Revenue Pre- and Post-GST Implementation
The second part of the study involves a comparative analysis of government revenue before and after GST
implementation. In this study, paired t tests were applied. We use the paired t test when there is one measurement
variable and two nominal variables. One of the nominal variables has a binary nature, with just two distinct values. The
prevailing design has one nominal variable representing distinct individuals, while the other variable denotes the state "before"
and "after" following a certain effect. In my study, the measurement variable is the average growth of government revenue,
and the nominal variables are before the application of the GST and after the application. of the GST. A paired t test is
conducted to evaluate the effect of the implementation of the GST on the average growth of government revenues. For this
purpose, 29 pairs were made (table 3). These are:
The paired sample t test analysis investigates the impact of the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on
the average growth of government revenue across 29 states during two distinct periods: the pre-GST era (average growth from
2011-12 to 2016-17) and the post-GST phase (average growth from 2017-18 to 2020-21). The results indicate that, on average,
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the growth in government revenue post-GST implementation is greater than that in the pre-GST period across all states. This
finding is further substantiated by the statistical significance of the differences, as evidenced by the t-statistics and low p values
(all p < 0.05), affirming the consistency of this positive impact. Notably, the magnitude of the positive mean differences across
states varied, implying that some regions experienced a more pronounced increase in average growth post-GST. States such
as Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand particularly stand out in showing substantial growth in government revenue.
Policymakers are encouraged to interpret these results in the context of a generally positive trend, indicating that, on average,
states witnessed an increase in government revenue following the implementation of the GST. The acknowledgment of
regional variations, especially in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, underscores the complexity of the impact of the GST,
prompting the need for nuanced and region-specific policy responses. The extended temporal analysis spanning multiple years
lends credibility to the findings, offering a comprehensive perspective on the sustained positive effects of the GST on
government revenue growth. Despite these encouraging results, it is crucial to consider the assumptions and limitations
inherent in the paired t test methodology, including the assumption of a normal distribution of differences between paired
observations. In conclusion, this in-depth analysis presents a favorable outlook, indicating that, on average, states experienced
an increase in government revenue after the implementation of the GST. Policymakers can leverage these insights to formulate
targeted strategies that align with the observed positive trends, contributing to fiscal sustainability and economic stability in
the evolving GST landscape.
Table 3 Paired sample t test.
Paired Differences T Sig. (2-tailed)
PAIR STATES Mean
Pair 1 Pre GST-Post GST Andaman and Nicobar Islands -0.65 -8.51 .000
Pair 2 Pre GST-Post GST Andhra Pradesh -0.7 -7.286 .000
Pair 3 Pre GST-Post GST Arunachal Pradesh -0.5 -4.937 .000
Pair 4 Pre GST-Post GST Assam -0.4 -4.639 .000
Pair 5 Pre GST-Post GST Bihar -0.55 -5.135 .000
Pair 6 Pre GST-Post GST Center Jurisdiction -0.95 -10.064 .000
Pair 7 Pre GST-Post GST Chandigarh -0.725 -7.164 .000
Pair 8 Pre GST-Post GST Chhattisgarh -0.7 -6.445 .000
Pair 9 Pre GST-Post GST DAD NAG -0.975 -8.547 .000
Pair 10 Pre GST-Post GST Dadra & Nagar Haveli & Daman Diu -0.425 -4.226 .000
Pair 11 Pre GST-Post GST Delhi -1.175 -9.945 .000
Pair 12 Pre GST-Post GST Goa -0.6 -4.878 .000
Pair 13 Pre GST-Post GST Gujarat -0.575 -4.473 .000
Pair 14 Pre GST-PostGST Haryana -0.62 -4.639 0.00
Pair 15 Pre GST-Post GST Himachal Pradesh -0.7 -6.135 .000
Pair 16 Pre GST-Post GST Jammu and Kashmir -0.3 -7.235 .000
Pair 17 Pre GST-Post GST Jharkhand -0.6 -12.164 .000
Pair 18 Pre GST-Post GST Karnataka -0.75 -8.156 .000
Pair 19 Pre GST-Post GST Kerala -0.85 -9.347 .000
Pair 20 Pre GST-Post GST Ladakh -0.65 -4.226 .000
Pair 21 Pre GST-Post GST Lakshadweep -0.9 -9.635 .000
Pair 22 Pre GST-Post GST Madhya Pradesh -0.67 -9.347 .000
Pair 23 Pre GST-Post GST Maharashtra -0.425 -4.226 .000
Pair 24 Pre GST-Post GST Meghalaya -1.175 -9.945 .000
Pair 25 Pre GST-Post GST Mizoram -0.6 -4.878 .000
Pair 26 Pre GST-Post GST Nagaland -0.575 -4.473 .000
Pair 27 Pre GST-Post GST Odisha -0.65 -8.51 .000
Pair 28 Pre GST-Post GST Other Territory -0.7 -7.286 .000
Pair 29 Pre GST-Post GST Puducherry -0.5 -4.937 .000
Pair 30 Pre GST-Post GST Punjab -0.4 -4.639 .000
Pair 31 Pre GST-Post GST Rajasthan -0.55 -5.135 .000
Pair 32 Pre GST-Post GST Sikkim -0.95 -6.064 .000
Pair 33 Pre GST-Post GST Tamil Nadu -0.725 -7.164 .000
Pair 34 Pre GST-Post GST Telangana -0.85 -6.445 .000
Pair 35 Pre GST-Post GST Tripura -0.775 -6.342 .000
Pair 36 Pre GST-Post GST Uttar Pradesh -0.231 -4.226 .000
Pair 37 Pre GST-Post GST Uttarakhand -3.275 -7.945 .000
Pair 38 Pre GST-Post GST West Bengal -0.6 -7.378 .000
*Notes: 1. Pre-GST is the average growth over the period 2011-12 to 2016-17. 2. The post-GST showed average growth from 2017-2018 to 2020-21. 3.
For Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the pre-GST period is taken to be 2014-15 to 2016- 17, given the reorganisation of erstwhile Andhra Pradesh.
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3.3. Objective 3- Analyze the impact of GST on gross domestic product (GDP)
The third part of the study deals with analyzing the impact of GST on GDP. The relationship between GST collections
and GDP reflects overall economic health. Analyzing this impact allows policymakers, economists, and businesses to assess the
performance and resilience of the economy. The majority of the researchers Mukherjee (2019), Khan et al (2012) and Srivastava
et al. (2010) focused on the relationship between the GST and GDP, as it provides useful insights into economic dynamics and
reflects the effects of tax policy changes. These studies support hypothesis development, which is denoted as
Ho:There is no significant impact of GST collections on GDP
H1:There is a significant impact of GST collection on GDP
Table 4 reflects the regression analysis depicting the impact of GST on GDP.
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• Statewise Contributions: Maharashtra consistently leads in terms of GST contributions, with a robust growth trend until
FY 2023. However, there is a noticeable decline in FY 2024. Karnataka, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu follow, experiencing
both growth and a decline in contributions. Despite being populous, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana exhibit lower
contributions. Telangana and Odisha show positive responses to GST policies, while states such as Assam, Himachal
Pradesh, and Goa present challenges with minimal contributions.
• Average Growth Trend: Table 2 reveals a general increasing trend in GST collections from 2018 to 2023, with a peak at
45.17% in 2023. However, there is a decrease to 29.72% in 2024. The growing variability and standard deviation
emphasize the dynamic nature of the GST, cautioning against predicting future collections.
• Paired Sample T Test Results: The analysis indicates that, on average, the growth in government revenue post-GST
implementation is greater than that in the pre-GST period across all states. The results are statistically significant,
suggesting a consistent positive impact. Regional variations highlight the complexity of the effects of the GST, urging
nuanced and region-specific policy responses.
• Regression Analysis on GST and GDP: Table 4 demonstrates a significant impact of GST on GDP at the 1% level of
significance. The coefficient for GST is 0.2368213, with a p value of 0.000, indicating a meaningful influence on the
overall economic output. The inclusion of other economic indicators (inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate) further
supports the robustness of the findings.
4.2. Implications
• Policy Considerations: Policymakers should interpret the findings to formulate targeted strategies aligning with positive
trends and ensuring fiscal sustainability and economic stability in the evolving GST landscape.
• Regional Disparities: Addressing variations in state contributions requires tailored interventions to enhance compliance
and revenue generation, especially in states with minimal contributions.
• Economic Resilience: This study underscores the need for caution in predicting future GST collections due to the dynamic
nature of the tax. Policymakers should remain adaptive to ensure economic resilience.
• Positive Impact on Government Revenue: The positive impact of the GST on average government revenue growth
postimplementation implies the effectiveness of the tax reform. Policymakers can leverage this insight for further
economic development.
• Influence on GDP: The significant impact of GST on GDP emphasizes its role in shaping overall economic output.
Policymakers and analysts should consider GST dynamics when formulating economic policies, recognizing its ripple
effects throughout the economy.
• Economic indicators: The significance of the inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate in the regression analysis
highlights their interconnectedness with GST and GDP, providing a holistic view of economic dynamics.
In conclusion, the study's findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, economists, and businesses, guiding them
to navigate the complexities of the impact of the GST on revenue and GDP while encouraging adaptive and region-specific
policy responses.
5. Final Considerations
The study reveals the intricate dynamics of GST contributions among states, emphasizing the need for nuanced policy
measures to address the diverse economic landscapes. The variations also highlight the potential impact of state-specific
factors such as economic activities, industrialization, and population density on GST revenue. Policymakers must consider these
variations to formulate effective strategies for ensuring uniform revenue growth across states.
The state-wise breakdown of GST collections in India from FY 2018 to FY 2024 paints a nuanced picture of the challenges
and opportunities associated with the GST framework. The fluctuations in contributions, both at the state and national levels,
call for a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing GST compliance and revenue growth. Policymakers should leverage
these insights to tailor strategies that not only address the challenges faced by individual states but also contribute to the
overall stability and sustainability of the GST system in India.
Acknowledgment
We would like to express our sincere gratitude to all those who contributed to this research endeavor. Additionally, we extend
our appreciation to our colleagues for their insightful discussions and feedback, which greatly enriched this study.
Ethical considerations
Not applicable.
Conflict of Interest
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