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STATS ANALYSIS

Which recent Test upset

was the most emphatic?
A lowdown on all the major upsets in the
last three years

Anantha Narayanan
15-Mar-2025 • 7 hrs ago

Where would you rank New Zealand's

series-clinching win in Pune in 2024 in the
list of greatest Test upsets? • BCCI

Why do we say that a Test has resulted in

an upset win for a team? Mostly it is the
gut feel of the informed cricket followers.
When one has followed cricket long
enough, the cricket follower/writer knows
intuitively which is an upset. Almost
everyone agreed that India were the
overwhelming favourites against New
Zealand last year at home and when the
results turned 180 degrees, everyone
concurred that those results were some
of the greatest upsets of all time.
But this will not answer the questions:
How great was New Zealand's Bengaluru
upset? Was it greater than the one by
Bangladesh in Mount Maunganui or by
West Indies in Brisbane? Was Australia's
2017 win in Pune a greater upset than
the Bengaluru one? What about
Bangladesh's wins in Pakistan? And so
on.
So I set about quantifying the matches
with a view to determine what were really
the greatest upsets. You could say that I
have tried to translate the learned
writer/follower's gut feelings and intuitions
into numbers. Of course, this has been
done using my own collection of derived
numbers. So while you can call this an
anecdotal article, it's strongly supported
by numbers.
I did not want to go beyond the last three
years. In any case, I did an article in 2021
that covered the major upsets across the
140-plus years of Test cricket.
In this analysis of recent Tests from 2022
onwards, I have been able to include two
other factors of relevance - the availability
of key players and the series status. This
analysis covers the last 138 Tests. It is a
two-stage process: a preliminary
selection based on a couple of
quantifiable parameters and a detailed
final analysis using multiple measures.
The preliminary selection was simple.
From the matches in which the weaker
teams (based on my Team Strength
Index) defeated the stronger teams, a
total of 43 Tests qualified. Then I did a
detailed analysis of these 43 matches
using quite a few other factors and
selected 11 Tests for featuring in this
article. The factors I used for analysis are
described below. The points total up to
100.

Bangladesh had two emphatic wins in Pakistan

last year, by ten wickets and six
wickets • AFP/Getty Images

1. Team Strength Differential (max

50 points)
This is the difference between the losing
(stronger) team's Team-Strength-Index
(TSI) and the winning (weaker) team's
TSI. Since the preliminary process
selected only the Tests in which the
weaker teams won, this number is always
positive for the selected Tests. Working
with the location-based values ensures
that the true strength differential is
derived.
For instance, the home TSI for Australia
in Brisbane was 85.5 and the away TSI
for West Indies was 37.8. Thus, the
difference of 47.7 is a very positive
indication of the huge problems faced by
West Indies. In another example, the
home TSI for India, in Bengaluru, was
96.1 (the highest ever) and the away TSI
for New Zealand was 63.5. The difference
is a high 32.6.
2. Winning team's performance in
the last ten Tests (high points for
poor performances - max 10
points)
What form the teams carry into the Test is
very relevant. For a team on an indifferent
run leading to the Test to beat a team on
a roll is indeed very creditable. I use the
location-based - 3.0 (away win), 2.5
(home win), 1.25 (away draw), 1.0 (home
draw), 0.0 (loss) - count to determine this
factor. The highest value for this factor is
29.0 for West Indies in Melbourne in 1984
into which they carried a sequence of
eight away wins and two home wins. The
maximum points possible is 30.0.
If the weaker winning team carries a very
poor run into this match, they should get
a lot of credit and vice versa. At the same
time I want to limit the points to 10.0. The
formula is given below.
Index points = 10.0*(30.0 -
Last_10_points for weaker team)/30.0.
When they played the Mount Maunganui
Test in 2022, Bangladesh were in poor
form - (6.75 points out of 30.0) so they
got 7.8 points (10.0*23.25/30.0) since
their win was despite this poor form.

West Indies' win in Brisbane in January 2024 was

their first Test win in Australia in 27 years • Getty
Images

3. Losing team's performance in

the last ten Tests (max 10 points)
For the other (stronger) team, the reverse
works. If the stronger losing team carries
a very strong run into this match, the
winning team should get a lot of credit
and vice versa. The formula is given
below.
Index points = 10.0*(Last_10_points for
stronger team)/30.0.
In the Mount Maunganui Test, New
Zealand were in very good form - (21.0
points out of 30.0), so Bangladesh got 7.0
points (10.0*21.0/30.0) since their win
was despite the stronger team's excellent
form.
It might be confusing, but these
measures will become clearer as we go
into the narratives of the matches.
4. Margin of win in the match (max
10 points)
This is to distinguish between West
Indies, who defeated Australia by eight
runs, and Bangladesh, who defeated
Pakistan by ten wickets. The win by the
weaker team gains more gloss if it is a
convincing win rather than a scrape-
through. Ten points are allotted for this
parameter. The formula is given below.
Index points = 10.0*TPP for the winning
team/100.0, where TPP is Team
Performance Points.
Readers will be aware that the winning
teams get just above 50 points for very
close matches, 60-plus for comfortable
wins, and 75-plus for innings/big-run
wins. The losing teams receive the
remaining points out of 100.0.
5. Series status after the win (max
10 points)
In a two-Test series, a win in the first Test
(as in Mount Maunganui) ensures at least
a drawn series for the weaker winning
team. A win in the second Test enabled
the team to draw (Brisbane) or win
(Rawalpindi) the series. The teams are
assigned points suitably.
In a three-Test series, a win in the first
Test (Bengaluru) was an important win
but did not guarantee anything. On the
other hand, because the first Test was
won, a win in the second Test (Pune)
guaranteed a series win. A win in the third
Test after the series is already decided
(Wankhede/The Oval) becomes less
relevant. Again, the teams are assigned
suitable points.
In series longer than three Tests, early
wins do not guarantee anything, but they
keep the series alive. We have never
come across an upset in a deciding Test
in this period.

Left-arm spinner Tom Hartley took 9 for 193 on

Test debut to hand England a famous win in
Hyderabad last year • BCCI

6. Key player availability in

concerned Test (max 10 points)
This relates to the non-availability of a
very important/important player for the
concerned Test. The emphatic example is
Kane Williamson's non-availability for
New Zealand in India. The narratives
contain suitable explanations.
A total of 11 Tests are featured
chronologically. The key numbers are
shown first, followed by a brief narrative.
The numbers 1/2 indicate that this is the
first Test in a two-Test series; 2/2 indicate
that this is the second Test in a two-Test
series, and so on. At the end, there is a
table that shows the Tests ordered on
total points.

NZ VS BAN, MT
MAUNGANUI, 2022
1ST TEST, TWO-TEST SERIES

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In Mount Maunganui in 2022,

Bangladesh, with an away TSI of 43.3,
with a very poor recent form of 6.75,
faced a New Zealand team with a high
TSI of 80.6 and a very good recent form
of 21.0. If this Test was played ten times
over, New Zealand should have won nine
times. Well, the tenth occurrence is what
actually. Bangladesh won, and that too
very comfortably by eight wickets. Since
this was a two-Test series, Bangladesh
assured themselves of at least a drawn
series. The net impact of all these factors
was a Total Upset Index of 64.9.

NZ VS SA,
CHRISTCHURCH, 2022
2ND TEST, TWO-TEST SERIES

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The second Test featured is an unusual

one in that it features two strong teams.
When South Africa played New Zealand
in Christchurch in 2022, they were very
much the underdogs. Their away batting
was in shambles with averages around
20 strewn about. Their away TSI was only
56.7 as compared to the local team's 79.
In terms of recent form, both teams were
comparable. And they achieved a series
draw with this huge 198-run win, which
helped move the Upset Index to 46.

IND VS AUS, INDORE,

2023
3RD TEST, FOUR-TEST
SERIES

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The next match featured is also between

two top teams. When Australia played
India in Indore in 2023, they had already
slid to a 0-2 deficit in the four-Test series.
Their inexperience meant that they were
way behind in the TSI values. Both teams
were in reasonable form. But their nine-
wicket win was emphatic in this low-
scoring game, and they were missing
their captain, Pat Cummins. This gave
them additional points and their Upset
Index was a decent 53.

SL VS PAK, GALLE,
2023
1ST TEST, TWO-TEST SERIES

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One more selection that might surprise a

few. Pakistan were at decent strength
when they played a very strong Sri Lanka
in Galle in 2023. Their recent form was
awful - one win in ten Tests. They
achieved a tough win in a rather high-
scoring match and assured themselves of
a series share. That they went on to win
the next Test by an innings was the icing
on the cake. They received an Upset
Index score of 36.

AUS VS WI, BRISBANE,

2024
2ND TEST, TWO-TEST SERIES

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The next featured match is a classic. A

totally down-in-the-dumps West Indies
meeting the mighty Australia at the
impenetrable fortress of Brisbane,
conceding a TSI deficit of 48, in awful
form, against a team in very good form,
and trailing the two-match series 0-1.
Prior to the match, only the margin of win
for Australia was being discussed. But
instead West Indies triumphed by eight
runs through an inspired spell by the
injured Shamar Joseph. They dismissed
the match winner, Travis Head, for two
golden ducks. Kavem Hodge, playing his
first series, batted well in both innings.
The Upset index was a very impressive
73.

IND VS ENG,
HYDERABAD, 2024
1ST TEST, FIVE-TEST SERIES

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We are continuing the theme on the

surprise results among top teams. When
England toured India in 2024, no one
expected the visitors would fashion a win
out of nowhere through a spinner making
his debut. But that's what happened in
Hyderabad. Chasing a reasonable target
of 231, India were dismissed for 202
through some great bowling by left-arm
spinner Tom Hartley. This was after Ollie
Pope played one of the greatest Test
innings ever. The numbers are supportive
of calling this an upset. A decent TSI
difference was there. The forms of the
two teams were comparable. The Upset
Index was 35. That England managed to
lose the Test series 1-4 takes the sheen
off this win but that is outside the scope of
this analysis.

PAK VS BAN,
RAWALPINDI, 2024
1ST TEST, TWO-TEST SERIES

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Despite the upset-halo surrounding the

Bangladesh win against Pakistan by a big
margin of 2-0, the wins are not that great,
based on numbers. The series win was
huge, more than the sum of the individual
wins. As such, I am featuring only the first
Rawalpindi Test. The TSIs differed by less
than 10% and both teams were coming
off indifferent recent form sequences.
Pakistan's numbers, even at home, were
not that good. The win was by a big
margin and the assured saving of the
series gave this match an Upset Index of
28. I am featuring this match only to
highlight the series win.

IND VS NZ,
BENGALURU, 2024
1ST TEST, THREE-TEST
SERIES

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India were expected to comfortaly win the
Bengaluru Test against New Zealand. A
decent New Zealand, bereft of
Williamson, their best batter by a mile,
were up against India's batting might and
spin excellence. Despite having an away
TSI of 63, New Zealand found
themselves 33 short in this regard: the
Indian home TSI of 96 is the highest ever
- through batting averages of 69, 50, 53,
and 56, backed by bowling averages of
20, 21, 22 and 15.
Everyone knows what happened.
Overconfident to a fault, India opted to
bat first on a green pitch, scored 46,
conceded 402, recovered well, but
slipped from 408 for 3 to 462 all out, and
lost the match by eight wickets. India
were in much better form and this
resulted in an Upset Index of nearly 63. A
well-justified number indeed.

IND VS NZ, PUNE, 2024

2ND TEST, THREE-TEST
SERIES
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"The first Test loss was a fluke. We will

now have a square-turner and turn the
series around for a 2-1 win." This was the
host team's sentiment when they played
New Zealand in the second Test in Pune.
The Tamil Nadu offspinning duo,
Washington Sundar and R Ashwin, ran
through New Zealand for 259 and talks
were on for a 350-400 score. Except,
Mitchell Santner happened and India
conceded a lead of over 100 runs. New
Zealand repeated their first-innings score
and the target of over 350 meant that
Santner wove his magic again and India
lost the Test, series, and a place in the
WTC final.
The TSI difference was still big (but less
than Bengaluru), the recent form went a
little nearer. So, despite the big win and
the series victory, the Upset Index was
slightly down to 59.
In the third "dead rubber", India were
missing Jasprit Bumrah and New Zealand
played without Santner (in addition to
Williamson). The Upset Index dropped
slightly but I decided not to feature the
match since there are other matches
jostling for places. The Upset Index for
the third Test was at a decent level of 36
points.

AUS VS IND, PERTH,

2024
1ST TEST, FIVE-TEST SERIES

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Down in the dumps after the 0-3

hammering by New Zealand, India
reached Australia in November 2024 with
minimal expectations. And the first Test
was in Australia's fortress, Perth. Given
these factors, very few expected India to
do well. And to top it all, Rohit Sharma
and Shubman Gill were not available.
Australia were way ahead in TSI
comparisons, India's three home defeats
had pulled their recent form down a little.
But they won big and earned an Upset
Index value of 51 points. That they went
on to lose three of the next four Tests has
little bearing on this analysis.

PAK VS WI, MULTAN,

2025
2ND TEST, TWO-TEST SERIES

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Finally a match from this year. Pakistan

had beaten West Indies in the first Test in
Multan comfortably. They made the same
mistake India did, creating pitches that
turned square from day one. And then the
West Indian spinners out-bowled their
Pakistani counterparts in the second
Multan Test. Jomel Warrican had a
memorable match, taking nine wickets
and scoring 54 invaluable runs - 36 of
these from No.11 in the first innings. West
Indies won by 120 runs and squared the
series. They were way behind in the TSI
comparisons but both teams were going
through rough patches. The comfortable
win meant that the Upset Index was
decent - around 54.

THE GREATEST UPSETS

BASED ON THE INDEX
SCORES

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Based on the nuanced compilation of all

the relevant facts, this table indicates that
the greatest upset was West Indies' eight-
run win over Australia in Brisbane. The
shock waves this win produced were
seismic. For a period of time, this result
promised to scuttle Australia's WTC
chances. I am quite sure that there will be
very few discordant notes on this
selection. Some distance behind is
Bangladesh's defeat of New Zealand in
Mount Maunganui. Completely unfancied,
a much weaker side, spearheaded by fast
bowler Ebadot Hossain, fashioned this
amazing win. In third place is New
Zealand's win in Bengaluru, the contrast
between 46 and 402 making it fantasy
land. Their Pune win follows next, since
that was the series-winning Test and
proved that the first Test win was not an
aberration. The top five is rounded off by
the recent most unexpected Multan
miracle performed by the down-in-the-
dumps West Indies over Pakistan.
Since this is an article featuring upsets in
Test cricket, I have to mention the series
results as well. Without going into too
much detail, I would like to say that the
greatest upset in a series in nearly 150
years of Test cricket is the 3-0 demolition
of India by New Zealand in 2024. There
have been upset series wins previously -
India over West Indies and England in
1971, New Zealand at home over West
Indies in 1980, Zimbabwe in Pakistan in
1998, Sri Lanka in England in 2014, Sri
Lanka in South Africa in 2019, India in
Australia in 2020-21, and so on.
However, never before has a 3-0
expectation been converted to an
emphatic 0-3 result. The only other series
that could even be thought of in similar
terms is Sri Lanka's 2-0 win over South
Africa in 2019. It looks like there is
enough stuff on this theme for a future
article.
The quirky stats section
Two lists of teams that lost unexpectedly
and those who won unexpectedly -
presented in chronological order. The
other teams' first-innings scores are also
provided.
Scoring 500, and losing (In the first two
innings of the match).
Australia made 586 (inn 1) and lost
to England (325) by ten runs in
Sydney in 1894
South Africa made 506 (inn 2) and
lost to Australia (348) by 89 runs in
Melbourne in 1910-11
England made 519 (inn 1) and lost
to Australia (491) by five wickets in
Melbourne in 1929
Australia made 520 (inn 1) and lost
of South Africa (435) by six wickets
in Melbourne in 1953
West Indies made 526 (inn 1) and
lost to England (404) by seven
wickets in Port-of-Spain in 1968
Pakistan made 574 (inn 2) and lost
to Australia (441) by 92 runs in
Melbourne in 1972-73
Sri Lanka made 547 (inn 2) and lost
to Australia (256) by 16 runs in
Colombo in 1992
Australia made 556 (inn 1) and lost
of India (523) by four wickets in
Adelaide in 2003
Pakistan made 538 (inn 2) and lost
to England (515) by 167 runs at
Headingley in 2006
England made 551 (inn 1) and lost
to Australia (513) by six wickets in
Adelaide in 2006
India made 532 (inn 2) and lost to
Australia (463) by 122 runs in
Sydney in 2008
Bangladesh made 556 (inn 2) and
lost to West Indies (527) by 77 runs
in Mirpur in 2012
New Zealand made 523 (inn 2) and
lost to England (389) by 124 runs at
Lord's in 2015
Bangladesh made 595 (inn 1) and
lost to New Zealand (539) by seven
wickets in Wellington in 2017
New Zealand made 553 (inn 1) and
lost to England (539) by five wickets
at Trent Bridge in 2022
 Pakistan made 579 (inn 2) and lost
to England (657) by 74 runs in
Rawalpindi in 2022
Pakistan made 556 (inn 1) and lost
to England (823) by an innings and
47 runs in Multan in 2024

Scoring below 100, and winning (In the

first two innings of the match).
Australia made 63 (inn 1) and beat
England (101) by seven runs at The
Oval in 1882
England made 45 (inn 1) and beat
Australia (119) by 13 runs in Sydney
in 1887
England made 75 (inn 1) and beat
Australia (123) by 94 runs in
Melbourne in 1894-95
England made 92 (inn 1) and beat
South Africa (177) by 210 runs in
Cape Town in 1899
South Africa made 91 (inn 1) and
beat England (184) by one wicket in
Johannesburg in 1906
England made 76 (inn 1) and beat
South Africa (110) by 53 runs at
Headingley in 1907
Australia made 75 (inn 2) and beat
South Africa (311) by five wickets in
Durban in 1950
New Zealand made 94 (inn 2) and
beat India (99) by four wickets in
Hamilton in 2002
 South Africa made 96 (inn 2) and
beat Australia (284) by eight wickets
in Cape Town in 2011
Pakistan made 99 (inn 1) and beat
England (141) by 71 runs in Dubai in
2012
England made 85 (inn 1) and beat
Ireland (207) by 143 runs at Lord's in
2019
England made 67 (inn 2) and beat
Australia (179) by one wicket at
Headingley in 2019

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Anantha Narayanan has written for ESPNcricinfo

and CastrolCricket and worked with a number of
companies on their cricket performance ratings-
related systems

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