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CIE IGCSE Maths: Extended Your notes

Probability Diagrams - Tree & Venn Diagrams

Contents
Two Way Tables
Probability & Venn Diagrams
Probability Tree Diagrams

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Two Way Tables

Your notes
Two Way Tables
What are two-way tables?
Two-way tables allow us to consider two characteristics within a set of data
For example, we may be interested in the number of students studying Spanish or German
We may also be interested in how many of those students are in year 12 and how many are in
year 13
Spanish/German would be one characteristic in the two-way table, year 12/13 would be the
second
One of the characteristics will be represented by the columns, the other by the rows
A two-way table should include row totals and column totals
The row/column totals are sometimes called marginal (or sub-) totals
Where the row totals and column totals meet, we have the grand total
Marginal totals can be really useful in two-way table questions
If they're not mentioned, or not included in a given table, add them in!
Once a two-way table is completed, with marginal totals, the values within it can be used to determine
probabilities
How do I draw and complete a two-way table?
To construct a two-way table from information given in words in a question
identify the two characteristics
use rows for one characteristic and columns for the other
add an extra row and column for the marginal totals (and grand total)
Work your way through each sentence in the question
fill in any values you can directly from the information given
be prepared to come back to any information that cannot be put into the two-way table directly
some information may need combining in order to deduce a value
How do I find probabilities from a two-way table?
This is a matter of going from the words used in the question to probability phrases
Aim to rephrase the question in your head using AND and/or OR statements
e.g. The probability of selecting a year 12 student who studies German is P("year 12 AND German")
Once you are clear what parts of the two-way table are required you can begin to write down the
probability
the numerator will be taken from the main body of the two-way table
for "year 12 AND German" this would be the cell in the table where the row/column for "year 12"
meets the row/column for "German"
the denominator will be the total of the group we are choosing from

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this could be either a row/column (marginal) total or the grand total

if we are choosing from the whole group it would be the grand total
if we are choosing from just year 12 students, say, it would be the total for the year 12 Your notes
row/column
How do I work with two-way tables and conditional probability?
Probabilities that only involve a subset of the things in a two-way table are called conditional
probabilities
For example with male and female students studying various languages, you might want to know
the probability that a male student studies German
This would require considering only the 'male' row or column of the two-way table when finding the
probability
Conditional probability questions are often (but not always!) introduced by the expression 'given
that...'
For example 'Find the probability that a randomly chosen student studies German, given that the
student is male'
The answer would be the number of 'male AND German' students divided by the total for the male
row or column
Conditional probabilities are sometimes written using the 'straight bar' notation P(A | B )
That is read as 'the probability of A given B'
For example P( German | male) would be the probability that a student studies German, given
that the student is male

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Your notes

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Your notes

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Exam Tip
Your notes
Work carefully when completing a two-way table
double check your values add up to each row/column total
check your totals add up to the grand total
If there are errors in your table, your probabilities will be incorrect and you could lose several marks

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Worked example
Your notes
At an art group children are allowed to choose between four activities; colouring, painting, clay
modelling and sketching.
There is a total of 60 children attending the art group. 12 of the boys chose the activity colouring.
A total of 20 children chose painting and a total of 15 chose clay modelling. 13 girls chose clay
modelling.
8 of the 30 boys chose sketching, as did 4 of the girls.
a) Construct a two-way table to show this information.
Construct the table carefully, remember to include marginal totals for the rows and columns.
Work through each sentence in turn, placing a value in the table where possible and coming
back later to a sentence if need be.
Once those values are in place, work your way around the rest of the table until it is complete.
If you find you can't complete the table, look back at the question for some information you
may have missed.

Clay
Colouring Painting Sketching Total
modelling
30 - 12 - 2 - 8 =
Boys 12 15 - 13 = 2 8 30
8
Girls 30 - 12 - 13 - 4 = 1 20 - 8 = 12 13 4 60 - 30 = 30
Total 12 + 1 = 13 20 15 8 + 4 = 12 60

So the final two-way table is

Clay
Colouring Painting Sketching Total
modelling
Boys 12 8 2 8 30
Girls 1 12 13 4 30
Total 13 20 15 12 60

You can do a quick check of your table values by ensuring the marginal totals add up to the grand total.
b) Find the probability that a randomly selected child
i) chose colouring,
ii) is a boy who chose sketching.
i)

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For this part of the question we are not interested in whether the child is a boy or a girl.
So we will need the values from the (marginal) total column for colouring, 13.
There are 60 children in total. Your notes

ii) This time we do need to consider the characteristic boy/girl as well as the activity
sketching.
The value in the cell where 'boy' meets 'sketching' is 8. There are 60 children to select
from.

c) A girl is selected at random. Find the probability they chose the activity painting.
As we are only selecting from the girls, this will be "out of" 30 rather than the total of 60 that are
in the group.
12 girls chose painting.

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Probability & Venn Diagrams

Your notes
Probability & Venn Diagrams
What is a Venn diagram?
Venn diagrams allow us to show two (or more) characteristics of a situation where there is overlap
between the characteristics
For example, students in a sixth form can study biology or chemistry but there may be students who
study both
What might I be asked to do with a Venn diagram?
You can be asked to
draw a Venn diagram and/or
interpret a Venn diagram
Strictly speaking the rectangle (box) is always essential on a Venn diagram
it represents everything that can happen in the situation
you may see the letter ℰ or ξ written inside or just outside the box
this means “the set of all possible outcomes” - i.e. “everything”!
sometimes the letters U or S are used instead
The words AND and OR become very important in both drawing and interpreting Venn diagrams
You will need to be familiar with the symbols ∩ and ∪
∩ is intersection
∪ is union
these mean AND and OR (respectively)
How do I draw a Venn diagram?
Start with a “box” and overlapping “bubbles”
the number of bubbles needed will depend on how many characteristics you are dealing with
it will usually be 2 or 3
Work through each sentence/piece of information given in a question to begin completing sections of
your Venn diagram
pieces of information may have to be combined before you can enter a value into the diagram
not all values will be given directly
some may need working out
you will be expected to do this to complete your Venn diagram
Remember to consider AND and OR
How do I interpret a Venn diagram?
Use the information in the question to identify the parts of the Venn diagram needed to answer it

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Shading the relevant parts of a Venn diagram can be helpful

Be careful with probability notation such as
A' (not A) Your notes
the symbols ∩ and ∪
How do I use Venn diagrams with conditional probability?
Probabilities that only involve a subset of the things in a Venn diagram are called conditional
probabilities
For example with students studying German or Spanish or both, you might want to know the
probability that a student who studies Spanish also studies German
This would require considering only the 'Spanish' part of the Venn diagram when finding the
probability
Conditional probability questions are often (but not always!) introduced by the expression 'given
that...'
For example 'Find the probability that a randomly chosen student studies German, given that the
student also studies Spanish'
The answer would be the number in the 'Spanish AND German' part of the diagram divided by the
sum of all the numbers in the 'Spanish' part of the diagram
Conditional probabilities are sometimes written using the 'straight bar' notation P(A | B )
That is read as 'the probability of A given B'
For example P( German | Spanish) would be the probability that a student studies German,
given that the student also studies Spanish

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Your notes

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Your notes

Exam Tip
You may have to use your Venn diagram more than once in a question
so shading the original diagram can become confusing if you're trying to use it more than
once
draw a 'mini'-Venn diagram (a small quick sketch just showing the box and bubbles but no
values) and shade that

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Worked example
Your notes
In a class of 30 students, 15 students study Spanish, and 3 of the Spanish students also study German.
7 students study neither Spanish nor German.
a) Draw a Venn diagram to show this information.
We start with the 3 in the intersection ("overlap"); we can then deduce the "Spanish only"
section is 12.
7 needs to be outside both bubbles but within the box.
With a total of 30 we can work out how many students study "German only" and complete the
diagram.

b) Use your Venn diagram to find the probability that a student, selected at random from the class,
studies Spanish but not German.
Highlight the part "Spanish only".

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Your notes

Pick out the numbers you need carefully.

Students studying "Spanish only" = 12
Total number of students = 30

P(Spanish only)

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Worked example
Your notes
Given the Venn diagram below, find the following probabilities:

a) P(A)
Draw a 'mini'-Venn diagram - a quick sketch without the details.
See these questions as "ways to win" - so in this part you win if in "bubble A".
B and C do not come into it at all.

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Your notes

Total in A = 3 + 5 + 1 + 8 =17
Total = 3 + 5 + 1 + 8 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 9 = 40

b) P(A ∩ B ∩ C )
∩ - intersection - AND - "win" if "in A" AND "in B" AND "in C".

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Your notes

Total in A AND B AND C = 8

Total = 40

c) P(B' ∩ C )
∩ - intersection - AND - "win" if "not in B" AND "in C".

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Your notes

Total in "not B" AND C = 5

Total = 40

d) P(A ∪ B )
∪ - UNION - OR - "win" if "in A" OR "in B".

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Your notes

Total in A OR B = 3 + 1 + 8 + 5 + 2 + 8 = 27
Total = 40

e) P(A ∪ B ∪ C )
∪ - union - OR - "win" if "in A" OR "in B" OR "in C".

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Your notes

In this case, it will be easier to subtract from the whole total.

Total in A OR B OR C = 40 - 9 = 31
Total = 40

f) P(A' ∪ B' )
∪ - union - OR - "win" if "not in A" OR "not in B".
This one is particularly difficult to see without a diagram!

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Your notes

Total in A' OR B ' = 40 - 8 - 5 = 27

Total = 40

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Worked example
Your notes

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Your notes

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Your notes

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Your notes

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Your notes

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Your notes
Tree Diagrams
What is a tree diagram?
A tree diagram is used to
show the outcomes of multiple events that happen one after the other
help calculate probabilities when AND and/or OR’s are involved
Tree diagrams are mostly used when an event only has two outcomes of interest
e.g. “Rolling a 6 on a dice” and “Not rolling a 6 on a dice"
These outcomes are mutually exclusive (cannot happen at the same time)
How do I draw and label a tree diagram?
The first set of branches will represent the outcomes of the 1st experiment
in general we can call these outcomes "A" and "not A"
There will be two sets of branches representing the outcomes of the 2nd experiment
the first set will follow on from "A" in the 1st experiment
the second set will follow on from "not A" in the 1st experiment
for the 2nd experiment we can generally call the outcomes "B" and "not B"
Probabilities for each outcome are written along the branches of the tree
At the end of the diagram we can collect together the combinations of the 2 experiments
"A" and "B"
"A and not B"
"not A and B"
"not A and not B"

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Your notes

How do I solve probability problems involving tree diagrams?

Interpret questions in terms of AND and/or OR
Draw, or complete a given, tree diagram
Determine any missing probabilities
often using 1 − P(A )
Write down the outcomes of both events and work out their probabilities
These are AND statements
P(A AND B ) = P(A ) × P(B )
You may see this as “Multiply along branches”
If more than one outcome is required then add their probabilities
These are OR statements
P(AB OR " not A " " not B " ) = P(AB ) + P( " not A " " not B " )
You may see this as “Add different outcomes”
When you are confident with tree diagrams you can just pull out the outcome(s) you need
you do not routinely have to work all of them out
How do I use tree diagrams with conditional probability?
Probabilities that depend on a particular thing having happened first in a tree diagram are called
conditional probabilities
For example a team's win and loss probabilities in one game may change depending on whether
they won or lost the previous game
You might be interested in the probability of them winning a game after having lost the
previous one

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This probability will appear in the tree diagram in the set of branches that follow on from 'lose'
in the first set of branches
Or you might be asked to draw or complete a tree diagram for, say, the situation when two Your notes
counters are drawn from a bag of different coloured counters without replacement
The probabilities on the second set of branches will change depending on which branch has
been followed on the first set of branches
The denominators in the probabilities for the second set of branches will be one less than the
denominators on the first set of branches
The numerators on the second set of branches will also change depending on what has
happened on the first set of branches
See the Worked Example below for an example of this
Conditional probability questions are sometimes (but not always!) introduced by the expression 'given
that...'
For example 'Find the probability that the team win their next game given that they lost their
previous game'
Conditional probabilities are sometimes written using the 'straight bar' notation P(A | B )
That is read as 'the probability of A given B'
For example P(win | lose) would be the probability that the team wins, given that they lost their
previous game
The event after the straight bar occurs first, and the event before the straight bar occurs
afterwards

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Your notes

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Your notes

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Exam Tip
Your notes
It can be tricky to get a tree diagram looking neat and clear on the first first attempt
it can be worth sketching a rough one first
just keep an eye on that exam clock!
Tree diagrams make particularly frequent use of the result
Tree diagrams have built-in checks
the probabilities for each pair of branches should add up to 1
the probabilities for all final outcomes should add up to 1
When multiplying along branches with fractions it is often a good idea NOT to simplify any
fractions (except possibly the final answer to the question)
This is because fractions will often need to be added together, which is easier to do if they all
have the same denominator

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Worked example
Your notes
A worker will drive through two sets of traffic lights on their way to work.
5
The probability of the first set of traffic lights being on green is .
7
8
The probability of the second set of traffic lights being on green is .
9
a) Draw and label a tree diagram including the probabilities of all possible outcomes.
Both sets of lights will either be on green (G) or red (R) (we can ignore yellow/amber for this
situation).
We know the probabilities of the traffic lights being on green, so need to work out the
probabilities of them being on red.

We also need to work out the combined probabilities of both traffic lights.

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Your notes

b) Find the probability that both sets of traffic lights are on red.
As we have written the probabilities of the combined events we can write the answer straight
down.

c) Find the probability that at least one set of traffic lights are on red.
This would be "R AND G" OR "G AND R" OR "R AND R" so we need to add three of the final
probabilities.

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Because 'at least one R' is the same as 'not both G', we can also calculate this by subtracting
P(G,G) from 1.
Your notes

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Worked example
Your notes
Liana has 10 pets − 7 guinea pigs (G) and 3 rabbits (R).
Liana is choosing two pets to feature in her latest online video. First she is going to choose at random
one of the pets. Once she has carried that pet to her video studio she is going to go back and choose
at random a second pet to also feature in the video.
a) Draw and label a tree diagram including the probabilities of all possible outcomes.
For the 1st pet chosen, there will be a 7/10 probability of choosing a guinea pig, and a 3/10
probability of choosing a rabbit.
If the first pet is a guinea pig, there will only be 6 guinea pigs and 3 rabbits left (9 animals total).
So for the second pet the probability of choosing a guinea pig would be 6/9, and probability of
choosing a rabbit would be 3/9.
If the first pet is a rabbit, there will only be 7 guinea pigs and 2 rabbits left (9 animals total). So for
the second pet the probability of choosing a guinea pig would be 7/9, and probability of
choosing a rabbit would be 2/9.
Put these probabilities into the correct places on the tree diagram, and then multiply along the
branches to find the probabilities for each outcome.

b) Find the probability that Liana chooses two rabbits.

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As we have already calculated this probability in the table, we can just write the answer down.

Your notes

c) Find the probability that Liana chooses two different kinds of animal.
This would be "G AND R" OR "R AND G" so we need to add two of the final probabilities.

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Combined Probability
What do we mean by combined probabilities? Your notes
In general this means there is more than one event to bear in mind when considering probabilities
these events may be independent or mutually exclusive
they may involve an event that follows on from a previous event
e.g. Rolling a dice, followed by flipping a coin
How do I work with and calculate combined probabilities?
In your head, try to rephrase each question as an AND and/or OR probability statement
e.g. The probability of rolling a 6 followed by flipping heads would be "the probability of rolling a 6
AND the probability of flipping heads"
In general,
AND means multiply ( × ) and is used for independent events
OR mean add (+ ) and is used for mutually exclusive events
The fact that all probabilities sum to 1 is often used in combined probability questions
In particular when we are interested in an event "happening" or "not happening"
1 1 5
e.g. P( rolling a 6) = so P(NOT rolling a 6) = 1 − =
6 6 6
Tree diagrams can be useful for calculating combined probabilities
especially when there is more than one event but you are only concerned with two outcomes from
each
e.g. The probability of being stopped at one set of traffic lights and also being stopped at a
second set of lights
however unless a question specifically tells you to, you don't have to draw a diagram
for many questions it is quicker simply to consider the possible options and apply the AND and OR
rules without drawing a diagram

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Worked example
Your notes
A box contains 3 blue counters and 8 red counters.
A counter is taken at random and its colour noted.
The counter is put back into the box.
A second counter is then taken at random, and its colour noted.
Work out the probability that
i) both counters are red,
ii) the two counters are different colours.
i) This is an "AND" question: 1st counter red AND 2nd counter red.

ii) This is an "AND" and "OR" question: [ 1st red AND 2nd green ] OR [ 1st green AND 2nd red ].

In the second line of working in part (ii) we are multiplying the same two fractions together
twice, just 'the other way round'.

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It would be possible to write that instead as

Your notes
That sort of 'shortcut' is often possible in questions like this.

Worked example
The probability of winning a fairground game is known to be 26%.
If the game is played 4 times find the probability that there is at least one win.
Write down an assumption you have made.
At least one win is the opposite to no losses so use the fact that the sum of all probabilities is 1.

Use the same fact to work out the probability of a loss.

The probability of four losses is an "AND" statement; lose AND lose AND lose AND lose.
Assuming the probability of losing doesn't change, this is .

P(at least 1 win) = 0.7001 (4 d.p.)

The assumption that we made was that the probability of winning/losing doesn't change between
games.
Mathematically this is described as each game being independent.
I.e., the outcome of one game does not affect the outcome of the next (or any other) game.
It has been assumed that the outcome of each game is independent.

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