Scribd
Upload
26 views2 pages

02 Bojan Evolution Wind

The document evaluates the wind energy potential in the South Baltic Sea, highlighting the growth of offshore wind energy and Poland's plans to construct wind farms with a total capacity of 6 GW by 2030. It presents a methodology for determining wind characteristics using the Weibull distribution and analyzes data from an 11-year period, revealing significant seasonal variations in wind power density. The findings suggest that the Weibull distribution is effective for estimating wind potential and that a hub height of 150 m may optimize energy harvesting efficiency.

Uploaded by

opetaky
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
26 views2 pages

02 Bojan Evolution Wind

The document evaluates the wind energy potential in the South Baltic Sea, highlighting the growth of offshore wind energy and Poland's plans to construct wind farms with a total capacity of 6 GW by 2030. It presents a methodology for determining wind characteristics using the Weibull distribution and analyzes data from an 11-year period, revealing significant seasonal variations in wind power density. The findings suggest that the Weibull distribution is effective for estimating wind potential and that a hub height of 150 m may optimize energy harvesting efficiency.

Uploaded by

opetaky
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

WMHE 2022 17th International Symposium on Water Management and Hydraulic Engineering

EVALUATION OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL IN SOUTH BALTIC SEA

MICHAŁ BOJAN 1, PIOTR SZMYTKIEWICZ 2, …


1
Institute of Hydro-Engineering, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland, P.Szmytkiewicz@ibwpan.gda.pl
2
Institute of Hydro-Engineering, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland, P.Szmytkiewicz@ibwpan.gda.pl

Keywords: offshore wind farms, South Baltic Sea, wind energy potential

Abstract

Wind energy is among the fastest growing renewable energy sources, growing 29% in 2008 alone to
reach 1.21 GW of installed capacity worldwide. Offshore wind energy grew at an even faster rate of
32% in 2008, with Europe alone reaching 1.47 MW installed in offshore wind farms. Still, wind
energy only accounts for 1.2% of the world's total installed power capacity. The construction of wind
farms offshore is significantly more expensive than those onshore. The costs of connecting cables to
the national power grid and the costs of turbine maintenance are also considerably higher. These costs
depend to a large extent on the distance from shore and the depth at which the turbines are to be
located.

Plans to construct wind energy farms in the Polish economic zone are being carried out and are meant
to reach the total generated capacity of 6 GW by 2030. The plan to achieve this capacity, involves
construction of approximately 430 offshore wind turbines with a unit capacity of 14 MW (ibidem).
Poland's energy policy assumes that the country will have 11 GW of capacity from offshore wind
turbines by 2040.

Before setting up a wind farm, factors such as wind energy potential, feasibility and operating costs
must be evaluated in order to avoid investment risks and maximize turbine efficiency. The goal of this
paper is to present a comprehensive methodology for determination of statistical wind characteristics
and wind energy potential. An exemplary calculation was performed for a single forecasting point
located within the Polish exclusive economic zone, in the vicinity of Slupsk shoal. The starting point
for such calculations is the determination of a reliable statistical distribution function to describe the
measured wind speeds. The Weibull distribution function is commonly used in the world, including
Poland, as the standard method. This distribution is a function characterized by two parameters: shape
and scale. The scale parameter controls the range, and the shape parameter determines the width of the
data distribution. A wider data distribution implies a smaller shape parameter and a lower maximum
value of the data distribution. Independent of the Weibull distribution, the statistical distribution
functions were also determined by the maximum likelihood method, GEV, lognormal distribution, and
compared with the Weibull distribution.

Data

Given the large scope of available data, wind data has been acquired from an 11-year period of
January 2008-December 2018. The point for which data has been acquired (marked yellow on the
map) is located at 54.99° N, 17.29° E. The point is located 27 km away from the coast. The data
comes from MESCAN-SURFEX system in UERRA regional reanalysis for Europe on single levels
from 1961 to 2019, courtesy of Copernicus Climate Change Service
(https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-uerraa-europe-single-levels?
tab=overview). MESCAN-SURFEX is a surface analysis system that provides 6-hourly wind speed
and wind direction at 10 m above sea level, with analysis available each day at 0.00, 6.00, 12.00 at
18.00 UTC. The projection of this model is a Lambert conformal conic grid with 1069 x 1069 grid
points, with a horizontal resolution of 5.5 km x 5.5 km.

1
WMHE 2022 17th International Symposium on Water Management and Hydraulic Engineering

Results and discussion

The mean wind power densities are at their highest in late fall and in winter, with the maximum in
December (809.96 W/m2). Those values are significantly smaller in the summer period, with the
lowest mean power density calculated in July (273.92 W/m2), sitting at only about half of the average
value (535.71 W/m2).

The wind climate exhibits substantial variation, with wind speeds in winter months high enough to put
the region into the “very good” category of wind power classification, while summer months have low
enough wind power density values to place them below the “fairly good” rating. This particular result
is of note as generally, the maintenance of wind farms tends to be harder and more expensive during
the winter period while the wind farms themselves are also the most busy with producing energy
during that time.

Conclusions

Main conclusions are as follows:


1. The Weibull distribution is proven to be a very useful tool of estimating wind power potential
from available numerical or observational data.
2. Among the suggested wind turbine hub height variants, the height of 150 m seems to be close
the threshold of reaching good efficiency of harvesting energy from wind in marine
conditions.
3. High seasonal variation of wind speeds exists in the region, and the variation is even more
exemplified when it comes to wind power density values

References

A.R. Henderson, C. Morgan, B. Smith, H.C. Sørensen, R.J. Barthelmie, B. Boesmans, 2003. Offshore
wind energy in Europe  a review of the stateof theart, Wind Energy 6 (1), pp. 3552.
Alkhalidi M, Shoug Kh. Al-Dabbous, Neelamani S, Hassan A. Aldashti, 2018. Wind energy potential
at coastal and offshore locations in the state of Kuwait. Renewable Energy 135 (2019) 529-539
Fazelpour F., Markarian E., Soltani N., 2017. Wind energy potential and economic assessment of four
locations in Sistan and Balouchestan province in Iran. Renewable Energy, 2017, vol. 109, issue C,
646-667.
McKinsey & Company 2016. Developing offshore wind power in Poland. Available at:
www.mckinsey.com/pl/~/media/McKinsey/Locations/Europe%20and%20Middle%20East/Polska/
Raporty/Rozwoj%20morskiej%20energetyki%20wiatrowej%20w%20Polsce [Accessed 14 April
2022]
Palutikof J, Brabson B, Lister D.. Adcock S.T., 1999. A review of methods to calculate extreme wind
speeds. Meteorol. Appl. 6, 119–132.
Peter Enevoldsen, Mark Z. Jacobson, 2020. Data investigation of installed and output power densities
of onshore and offshore wind turbines worldwide. Applied Energy 156 (2015) 362–373.
Z.R. Shu a, Q.S. Li, P.W. Chan, 2015. Investigation of offshore wind energy potential in Hong Kong
based on Weibull distribution function. Applied Energy 156, 362–373.

You might also like

pFad - Phonifier reborn

Pfad - The Proxy pFad of © 2024 Garber Painting. All rights reserved.

Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.


Alternative Proxies:

Alternative Proxy

pFad Proxy

pFad v3 Proxy

pFad v4 Proxy