F-406 Doc2
F-406 Doc2
Other assumptions
Weighted sales growth 42.44%
Average COGS/Sales 66.97%
Average Gross margin 33.03%
Average administrative expenses as % of sales 2.81%
Average selling and distribution expenses as % of sales 0.17%
Average finance cost as % of sales 18.59%
Average depriciation as % of sales 0.39%
Average working capital rate 9.45%
Average Interset Rate -0.63%
Average capex rate 149.78%
ACTUAL PROFORMA
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Terminal Value
Revenue 23,845,878,287 23,942,598,755 19,824,794,641 42,017,156,905 73,359,401,035 104,490,073,903 148,831,307,101 211,989,111,943 301,948,457,334 430,082,800,248
Growth Rate 0.41% -17.20% 111.94% 74.59% 42.44% 42.44% 42.44% 42.44% 42.44%
Cost of Goods Sold 16,243,180,683 16,081,639,539 12,871,944,492 27,985,630,626 49,904,833,748 69,976,261,047 99,671,270,281 141,967,604,025 202,212,739,295 288,023,399,522
Gross Profit 7,602,697,604 7,860,959,216 6,952,850,149 14,031,526,279 23,454,567,287 34,513,812,856 49,160,036,820 70,021,507,918 99,735,718,039 142,059,400,726
% of Sales 31.88% 32.83% 35.07% 33.39% 31.97% 33.03% 33.03% 33.03% 33.03% 33.03%
Administrative Expenses 721,094,449 780,844,300 755,852,217 880,955,914 1,345,623,131 2,931,762,577 4,175,880,447 5,947,950,097 8,472,012,264 12,067,181,234
% of Sales 3.02% 3.26% 3.81% 2.10% 1.83%
Selling & Distribution Expenses 33,183,133 23,821,297 52,832,382 50,646,847 149,713,228 173,404,806 246,990,580 351,803,090 501,093,662 713,736,931
% of Sales 0.14% 0.10% 0.27% 0.12% 0.20%
Finance Cost 5,454,613,586 5,410,990,530 5,309,307,509 5,018,002,695 6,428,837,902 19,427,144,191 27,671,214,645 39,413,725,064 56,139,267,587 79,962,433,392
% of Sales 22.87% 22.60% 26.78% 11.94% 8.76%
Depreciation 84,701,383 123,668,411 123,390,628 119,419,688 117,244,388 405,038,601 576,920,105 821,740,957 1,170,453,577 1,667,145,302
% of Sales 0.36% 0.52% 0.62% 0.28% 0.16%
Total Operating Costs 6,293,592,551 6,339,324,538 6,241,382,736 6,069,025,144 8,041,418,649 22,937,350,176 32,671,005,777 46,535,219,208 66,282,827,089 94,410,496,860
EBIT 1,309,105,053 1,521,634,678 711,467,413 7,962,501,135 15,413,148,638 11,576,462,680 16,489,031,043 23,486,288,709 33,452,890,950 47,648,903,866
% of Sales 5.49% 6.36% 3.59% 18.95% 21.01% 11.08% 11.08% 11.08% 11.08% 11.08%
Depreciation 84,701,383 123,668,411 123,390,628 119,419,688 117,244,388 405,038,601 576,920,105 821,740,957 1,170,453,577 1,667,145,302
EBITDA 1,224,403,670 1,397,966,267 588,076,785 7,843,081,447 15,295,904,250 11,171,424,079 15,912,110,938 22,664,547,752 32,282,437,372 45,981,758,564
% of Sales 5.13% 5.84% 2.97% 18.67% 20.85% 10.69% 10.69% 10.69% 10.69% 10.69%
EBIT 1,309,105,053 1,521,634,678 711,467,413 7,962,501,135 15,413,148,638 11,576,462,680 16,489,031,043 23,486,288,709 33,452,890,950 47,648,903,866
Less: Interest 5,446,582,529 5,336,089,304 5,214,546,643 4,980,386,305 5,293,798,724 5,260,659,462 5,227,727,653 5,195,001,997 5,162,481,204 5,130,163,992
-2.03% -2.28% -4.49% 6.29%
EBT (4,137,477,476) (3,814,454,626) (4,503,079,230) 2,982,114,830 10,119,349,914 6,315,803,218 11,261,303,390 18,291,286,713 28,290,409,746 42,518,739,874
% of Sales -17.35% -15.93% -22.71% 7.10% 13.79% 6.04% 7.57% 8.63% 9.37% 9.89%
Income Taxes 327,276,263 380,408,670 177,866,853 1,990,625,284 3,853,287,160 2,894,115,670 4,122,257,761 4,572,821,678 8,363,222,737 11,912,225,966
Net Income (EAT) (4,464,753,739) (4,194,863,296) (4,680,946,083) 991,489,546 6,266,062,755 3,421,687,548 7,139,045,630 13,718,465,034 19,927,187,008 30,606,513,908
Add: Depreciation/Amortization 84,701,383 123,668,411 123,390,628 119,419,688 117,244,388 405,038,601 576,920,105 821,740,957 1,170,453,577 1,667,145,302
Add: Net Borrowings 57,067,335,152 61,358,472,064 64,298,525,037 66,746,919,366 94,205,023,445 107,689,652,456 123,104,488,721 140,725,824,604 160,869,501,318 183,896,569,994
Less: Changes in Working Capital (6,168,466,521) (40,482,707,314) 21,400,288,895 (4,550,397,848) 3,136,724,098 3,433,046,361 3,757,361,804 4,112,314,907 4,500,799,970
Less: Capital Expenditures 182,013,975 67,057,124 312,462,891 153,026,346 684,560,909 1,709,912,725 4,271,061,186 10,668,359,493 26,647,685,273 66,561,230,048
-63.16% 365.97% -51.03% 347.35%
Levered Cash Flow (Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)) 52,505,268,821 63,388,686,577 99,911,214,005 46,304,513,359 104,454,167,527 106,669,741,782 123,116,346,909 140,840,309,299 151,207,141,723 145,108,199,186 967,387,994,570
Cash Flow Timing (1=12 months from valuation) 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0
Present Value of Adjusted Cash Flows (FCFE) 97,149,127,306 102,120,055,100 106,394,689,093 104,031,040,806 90,924,359,810 606,162,398,735
Other assumptions
Weighted sales growth 42.44%
Average COGS/Sales 66.97%
Average Gross margin 33.03%
Average administrative expenses as % of sales 2.81%
Average selling and distribution expenses as % of sales 0.17%
Average finance cost as % of sales 18.59%
Average depriciation as % of sales 0.39%
Average working capital rate 9.45%
Average capex rate -73.89%
Revenue 23,845,878,287 23,942,598,755 19,824,794,641 42,017,156,905 73,359,401,035 104,490,073,903 148,831,307,101 211,989,111,943 301,948,457,334 430,082,800,248
Growth Rate 0.41% -17.20% 111.94% 74.59% 42.44% 42.44% 42.44% 42.44% 42.44%
Cost of Goods Sold 16,243,180,683 16,081,639,539 12,871,944,492 27,985,630,626 49,904,833,748 69,976,261,047 99,671,270,281 141,967,604,025 202,212,739,295 288,023,399,522
Gross Profit 7,602,697,604 7,860,959,216 6,952,850,149 14,031,526,279 23,454,567,287 34,513,812,856 49,160,036,820 70,021,507,918 99,735,718,039 142,059,400,726
% of Sales 31.88% 32.83% 35.07% 33.39% 31.97% 33.03% 33.03% 33.03% 33.03% 33.03%
Administrative Expenses 721,094,449 780,844,300 755,852,217 880,955,914 1,345,623,131 2,931,762,577 4,175,880,447 5,947,950,097 8,472,012,264 12,067,181,234
% of Sales 3.02% 3.26% 3.81% 2.10% 1.83%
Selling & Distribution Expenses 33,183,133 23,821,297 52,832,382 50,646,847 149,713,228 173,404,806 246,990,580 351,803,090 501,093,662 713,736,931
% of Sales 0.14% 0.10% 0.27% 0.12% 0.20%
Finance Cost 5,454,613,586 5,410,990,530 5,309,307,509 5,018,002,695 6,428,837,902 19,427,144,191 27,671,214,645 39,413,725,064 56,139,267,587 79,962,433,392
% of Sales 22.87% 22.60% 26.78% 11.94% 8.76%
Depreciation 84,701,383 123,668,411 123,390,628 119,419,688 117,244,388 405,038,601 576,920,105 821,740,957 1,170,453,577 1,667,145,302
% of Sales 0.36% 0.52% 0.62% 0.28% 0.16%
Total Operating Costs 6,293,592,551 6,339,324,538 6,241,382,736 6,069,025,144 8,041,418,649 22,937,350,176 32,671,005,777 46,535,219,208 66,282,827,089 94,410,496,860
EBIT 1,309,105,053 1,521,634,678 711,467,413 7,962,501,135 15,413,148,638 11,576,462,680 16,489,031,043 23,486,288,709 33,452,890,950 47,648,903,866
% of Sales 5.49% 6.36% 3.59% 18.95% 21.01% 11.08% 11.08% 11.08% 11.08% 11.08%
Depreciation 84,701,383 123,668,411 123,390,628 119,419,688 117,244,388 405,038,601 576,920,105 821,740,957 1,170,453,577 1,667,145,302
EBITDA 1,224,403,670 1,397,966,267 588,076,785 7,843,081,447 15,295,904,250 11,171,424,079 15,912,110,938 22,664,547,752 32,282,437,372 45,981,758,564
% of Sales 5.13% 5.84% 2.97% 18.67% 20.85% 10.69% 10.69% 10.69% 10.69% 10.69%
EBIT 1,309,105,053 1,521,634,678 711,467,413 7,962,501,135 15,413,148,638 11,576,462,680 16,489,031,043 23,486,288,709 33,452,890,950 47,648,903,866
Income Taxes 327,276,263 380,408,670 177,866,853 1,990,625,284 3,853,287,160 2,894,115,670 4,122,257,761 5,871,572,177 8,363,222,737 11,912,225,966
Unlevered Net Income (NOPAT) 981,828,790 1,141,226,009 533,600,560 5,971,875,851 11,559,861,479 8,682,347,010 12,366,773,282 17,614,716,532 25,089,668,212 35,736,677,899
Add: Depreciation/Amortization 84,701,383 123,668,411 123,390,628 119,419,688 117,244,388 405,038,601 576,920,105 821,740,957 1,170,453,577 1,667,145,302
Less: Changes in Working Capital (6,168,466,521) (40,482,707,314) (21,400,288,895) (4,550,397,848) (3,136,724,098) (3,433,046,361) (3,757,361,804) (4,112,314,907) (4,500,799,970)
Less: Capital Expenditures 182,013,975 67,057,124 312,462,891 153,026,346 -684,560,909 (178,726,592) (46,662,312) (12,182,694) (3,180,683) (830,419)
-63.16% 365.97% -51.03% -547.35%
Unlevered Cash Flow (Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)) 884,516,198 7,366,303,817 40,827,235,611 27,338,558,088 16,912,064,624 12,402,836,301 16,423,402,060 22,206,001,987 30,375,617,380 41,905,453,591 838,109,071,812
Cash Flow Timing (1=12 months from valuation) 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0
Present Value of Adjusted Cash Flows (FCFF) 11,580,612,793 14,318,060,174 18,075,984,566 23,086,985,508 29,738,782,987 594,775,659,731
Firm Value/Enterprise Value 241,195,182,693