Time sales FB TV Radio Date

Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2 2020-01-01

Week 2 10 44.5 39.3 45.1 2020-01-02
Week 3 9 17.2 45.9 69.3 2020-01-03
Week 4 19 151.5 41.3 58.5 2020-01-04
Week 5 13 180.8 10.8 58.4 2020-01-05
Week 6 7 8.7 48.9 75 2020-01-06
Week 7 12 57.5 32.8 23.5 2020-01-07
Week 8 13 120.2 19.6 11.6 2020-01-08
Week 9 5 8.6 2.1 1 2020-01-09
Week 10 11 199.8 2.6 21.2 2020-01-10
Week 11 9 66.1 5.8 24.2 2020-01-11
Week 12 17 214.7 24 4 2020-01-12
Week 13 9 23.8 35.1 65.9 2020-01-13
Week 14 10 97.5 7.6 7.2 2020-01-14
Week 15 19 204.1 32.9 46 2020-01-15
Week 16 22 195.4 47.7 52.9 2020-01-16
Week 17 13 67.8 36.6 114 2020-01-17
Week 18 24 281.4 39.6 55.8 2020-01-18
Week 19 11 69.2 20.5 18.3 2020-01-19
Week 20 15 147.3 23.9 19.1 2020-01-20
Week 21 18 218.4 27.7 53.4 2020-01-21
Week 22 13 237.4 5.1 23.5 2020-01-22
Week 23 6 13.2 15.9 49.6 2020-01-23
Week 24 16 228.3 16.9 26.2 2020-01-24
Week 25 10 62.3 12.6 18.3 2020-01-25
Week 26 12 262.9 3.5 19.5 2020-01-26
Week 27 15 142.9 29.3 12.6 2020-01-27
Week 28 16 240.1 16.7 22.9 2020-01-28
Week 29 19 248.8 27.1 22.9 2020-01-29
Week 30 11 70.6 16 40.8 2020-01-30
30

25

20

15

10

0
Week 1

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Week 1
 Sales
FB_ds 0.787713172
TV 0.423650705
Radio 0.142461909

sales

30

25

20 R² = 0.641323782686952

FB sales
15 TV
Linea di tende
Radio sales

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300

30

25

20

sales
15 R² = 0.14773289912701
Linea di tende
sales
25

20

sales
15 R² = 0.14773289912701
Linea di tende
sales

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

30

25

20

sales
15
Linea di tende
R² = 0.0131719418346926 sales

10

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
 sales
Linea di tendenza per
sales

300

sales
Linea di tendenza per
sales
 sales
Linea di tendenza per
sales

60

sales
Linea di tendenza per
sales

120
 Radio TV FB Intercept y=b1x1+b2x2+b3x3+b0
Coeffs -0.018892187 0.198569232 0.046326548 3.010379168
0.016657337 0.029829918 0.003713452 0.879329733
R^2 0.886867011 1.759221902 #N/A #N/A
67.93934131 26 #N/A #N/A
630.7885958 80.46640417 #N/A #N/A
RMSE 1.759221902

TV FB Intercept
0.176805507 0.046826507 2.75671576
0.022959327 0.003706695 0.854908237
R^2 0.881269831 1.768525501 #N/A
100.203199 27 #N/A
626.8075739 84.44742612 #N/A
RMSE 1.768525501

-21.34628242 144.0818344 18.69276227

 Sales Pred with RadiPred No Radio error radio
b1x1+b2x2+b3x3+b0 22 19.87 20.21 2.23
10 12.02 11.79 1.62
9 11.61 11.68 2.31
19 17.12 17.15 1.38
13 12.43 13.13 0.47
7 11.71 11.81 4.51
12 11.74 11.25 0.06
13 12.25 11.85 0.95
5 3.81 3.53 0.99
11 12.38 12.57 1.78
9 6.77 6.88 1.83
17 17.65 17.05 0.25
9 9.84 10.08 0.64
10 8.90 8.67 0.80
19 18.13 18.13 0.87
22 20.53 20.34 1.87
13 11.27 12.40 1.23
24 22.86 22.94 1.54
11 9.94 9.62 1.36
15 14.22 13.88 0.38
18 17.62 17.88 0.38
13 14.58 14.78 2.08
6 5.84 6.19 0.24
16 16.45 16.44 0.95
10 8.05 7.90 1.65
12 15.52 15.69 3.52
15 15.21 14.63 0.21
16 17.02 16.95 1.12
19 19.49 19.20 0.59
11 8.69 8.89 1.81
0
1.32
Errors no radio AVG_SAles 9.82%
1.89 13
1.39
2.38
1.35
0.23
4.61
0.55
1.35
1.27
1.97
1.72
0.35
0.88
1.03
0.87
2.06
0.10
1.46
1.68
0.72
0.12
2.28
0.59
0.94
1.80
3.69
0.37
1.05
0.30
1.61

1.35
 alpha 0.5
Beta 0.2
Time sales FB TV Radio FB_Transf
Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2 15.16904743
Week 2 10 44.5 39.3 45.1 6.894476738
Week 3 9 17.2 45.9 69.3 4.310324274
Week 4 19 151.5 41.3 58.5 12.34350294
Week 5 13 180.8 10.8 58.4 13.53767708
Week 6 7 8.7 48.9 75 3.377504318
Week 7 12 57.5 32.8 23.5 7.627286599
Week 8 13 120.2 19.6 11.6 11.03292605
Week 9 5 8.6 2.1 1 3.2873371
Week 10 11 199.8 2.6 21.2 14.1583003
Week 11 9 66.1 5.8 24.2 8.302509263
Week 12 17 214.7 24 4 14.70919787
Week 13 9 23.8 35.1 65.9 5.171251258
Week 14 10 97.5 7.6 7.2 9.926441973
Week 15 19 204.1 32.9 46 14.35567095
Week 16 22 195.4 47.7 52.9 14.08087832
Week 17 13 67.8 36.6 114 8.403343124
Week 18 24 281.4 39.6 55.8 16.8250013
Week 19 11 69.2 20.5 18.3 8.518509274
Week 20 15 147.3 23.9 19.1 12.20670725
Week 21 18 218.4 27.7 53.4 14.86073152
Week 22 13 237.4 5.1 23.5 15.5039397
Week 23 6 13.2 15.9 49.6 4.037423428
Week 24 16 228.3 16.9 26.2 15.13629693
Week 25 10 62.3 12.6 18.3 8.082528032
Week 26 12 262.9 3.5 19.5 16.2639634
Week 27 15 142.9 29.3 12.6 12.08936693
Week 28 16 240.1 16.7 22.9 15.57298537
Week 29 19 248.8 27.1 22.9 15.8718177
Week 30 11 70.6 16 40.8 8.589200402
1899-12-30 0 0 0 0

Adstock(t)= Adstock (t-1)*beta+ Spent(t) Dim Ret = Adstock(t) ^Alpha Transf. = (adstock(t-1)*beta+spent(t))^alph
 0.7 0.3
0.1 0.2
TV_Transf Radio_transf
12.71288914 3.564772578
13.35836062 3.149897996 Radio TV FB
14.85901854 3.576012436 -0.739876274 0.724114479 0.981194871
13.86470021 3.401965975 0.514363891 0.085718888 0.06290404
5.755917322 3.399640647 R^2 0.922782369 1.453396901 #N/A
15.34877423 3.661796568 103.5702218 26 #N/A
11.8854287 2.602068409 656.3335737 54.92142632 #N/A
8.365209743 2.113757847 RMSE 1.453396901
2.125607996 1.111574875
2.062392609 2.507609579
3.507695131 2.617080693
9.344560561 1.572678548 sales rispetto a Predictions
12.29426527 3.517920343
30
4.593595481 1.859290384
11.64802765 3.161377437
25
15.21588808 3.300537802
12.78850256 4.147856313
13.42916688 3.356703505 20
8.659990997 2.417850293
9.455817834 2.440998766 15
sales

10.46984743 3.307105904
3.56503251 2.599780864
10
7.042372528 3.235960448
7.446154601 2.683302659
5
6.133582972 2.412688051
2.691147975 2.455812422
10.70500381 2.16318401 0
7.495312764 2.572699998
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 2
10.26532073 2.575405916
7.274251974 3.053743694
sales rispetto a Predictions
30

25
k(t-1)*beta+spent(t))^alpha

20
sales

15

10

5
 20

sales
15

10

0
1 59 117175233291349407465523581639697755813871929987
 Predictions sales Errors
19.56 22 2.54
Intercept 12.22 10 1.82
-1.88855722 10.45 9 1.15
1.388008118 17.75 19 0.75
#N/A 13.05 13 0.15
#N/A 9.83 7 2.63
#N/A 12.28 12 0.48
13.43 13 0.23
2.05 5 2.75
11.64 11 1.04
6.86 9 1.74
to a Predictions 18.15 17 0.75
9.49 9 0.29
9.80 10 0.10
18.29 19 0.71
20.50 22 1.90
12.55 13 0.05
21.86 24 2.54
sales 10.95 11 0.35
Predictions 15.13 15 0.53
17.83 18 0.17
13.98 13 1.48
4.78 6 0.82
16.37 16 0.87
8.70 10 1.00
14.20 12 2.20
16.12 15 1.12
17 19 21 23 25 27 29 16.92 16 1.02
19.21 19 0.31
9.55 11 0.95
to a Predictions
1.08

Sales
Pred with Radio
 Sales
Pred with Radio

81639697755813871929987
AVG_sales %error
13 8.04%
 alpha 0.5

FB TV Radio FB_Transform
230.1 37.8 69.2 15.16904743
44.5 39.3 45.1 6.670832032
17.2 45.9 69.3 4.147288271
151.5 41.3 58.5 12.30853363
180.8 10.8 58.4 13.44618905
8.7 48.9 75 2.949576241
57.5 32.8 23.5 7.582875444
120.2 19.6 11.6 10.96357606
8.6 2.1 1 2.93257566
199.8 2.6 21.2 14.13506279
66.1 5.8 24.2 8.13019065
214.7 24 4 14.65264481
23.8 35.1 65.9 4.878524367
97.5 7.6 7.2 9.874208829
204.1 32.9 46 14.28635713
195.4 47.7 52.9 13.978555
67.8 36.6 114 8.23407554
281.4 39.6 55.8 16.77498137
69.2 20.5 18.3 8.318653737
147.3 23.9 19.1 12.13672114
218.4 27.7 53.4 14.77836256
237.4 5.1 23.5 15.40779024
13.2 15.9 49.6 3.633180425
228.3 16.9 26.2 15.1095996
62.3 12.6 18.3 7.893034904
262.9 3.5 19.5 16.21419132
142.9 29.3 12.6 11.9540788
240.1 16.7 22.9 15.49516053
248.8 27.1 22.9 15.77339532

Beta
 Time sales FB TV Radio
Week 1 22 230.1 37.8 69.2
Week 2 10
Week 3 9
Week 4 19
Week 5 13
Week 6 7
Week 7 12
Week 8 13
Week 9 5
Week 10 11
Week 11 9
Week 12 17
Week 13 9
Week 14 10
Week 15 19
Week 16 22
Week 17 13
Week 18 24
Week 19 11
0 Week 20 15
0 Week 21 18
0 Week 22 13
0 Week 23 6
0 Week 24 16
0 Week 25 10
0 Week 26 12
0 Week 27 15
0 Week 28 16
0 Week 29 19
0 Week 30 11
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
 0.7 0.5

TV_TransformRadio_Transformed FB_Transformed e FB_Transformed

6.14817046 8.318653737 18
6.268971207 6.715653356 R² = 0.853245456347519
16
6.774953874 8.324662155
6.426507605 7.64852927 14
3.286335345 7.64198927 12
6.992853495 8.660254038 FB_Transfo
10
5.727128425 4.847679857 Linea di ten
4.427188724 3.405877273 8 FB_Transfo
1.449137675 1 6
1.61245155 4.604345773
4
2.408318916 4.91934955
4.898979486 2 2
5.924525297 8.117881497 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
2.75680975 2.683281573
5.73585216 6.782329983 FB_Transformed
6.90651866 7.273238618
6.049793385 10.67707825
6.292853089 7.469939759 TV_Transformed e Radio_Transformed
4.527692569 4.277849927
4.888762625 4.370354677 8
R² = 0.864814245318704
5.263078947 7.307530363 7
2.258317958 4.847679857
3.987480407 7.042726745 6
4.110960958 5.118593557 5
3.54964787 4.277849927 TV_Transfo
1.870828693 4.415880433 4 Linea di ten
FB_Transfo
5.412947441 3.54964787 3
4.086563348 4.785394446
5.205766034 4.785394446 2

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
FB_Transformed

0.2 0.1 0.2 250

200
 250

FB_transformeTV_transformeRadio_TRansformed
230.1 37.8 69.2 200
46.02 3.78 13.84
9.204 0.378 2.768
1.8408 0.0378 0.5536
150
0.36816 0.00378 0.11072
0.073632 0.000378 0.022144
0.0147264 0.0000378 0.0044288
100
0.00294528 0.00000378 0.00088576
0.000589056 0.000000378 0.000177152
0.000117811 3.78E-08 3.54304E-05
2.35622E-05 3.78E-09 7.08608E-06 50

0
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week W
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week W
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Transformed

FB_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed
Radio_Transformed e Radio_Transformed
12
R² = 0.723838317599913

10

300
8
Radio_Transformed
6 Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed

_Transformed 4

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
FB_Transformed
TV_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed

60
 FB_transformed

ek Week Week Week Week Week Week

6 7 8 9 10 11

80

70

60

50

40
TV_transformed
30

20

10

0
k Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week
6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
d

Radio_Transformed
Linea di tendenza per
FB_Transformed
 Radio_TRansformed

k Week Week Week

9 10 11
 Radio TV FB Intercept
-0.739876274 0.724114479 0.981194871 -1.88855722
0.514363891 0.085718888 0.06290404 1.388008118
R^2 0.922782369 1.453396901 #N/A #N/A
103.5702218 26 #N/A #N/A
656.3335737 54.92142632 #N/A #N/A
RMSE 1.453396901

Radio TV FB Intercept
-0.739876274 0.724114479 0.981194871 -1.88855722

Contribution -8.375974571 26.54418098 12.94731155 -1.88855722

Transformed 11.32077736 36.65743713 13.19545376 1
Averages 40.8 16 70.6

Input 120 170 160

alpha 0.5 0.7 0.5

Beta 0.2 0.1 0.2

Sales Predicti 29.22696074

Cost 450

CPO 15.40
 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
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#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Tstat #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
PValue #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

SIgnificant? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

F-Stat #NAME?
Significant #NAME?

MAE #NAME?
MAPE #NAME?

SKEWNESS #NAME? -2 to 2
T-Stat
dal suo valore ipotizzato al P-value
per una ipotesi supposta
suo errore standard vera essere inferiore a
Deve
0,05 o superiore a 0,95
MAE Absolute
Mean MAPE
Error Mean absolute percentage error
Time FB TV Radio sales
Week 1 5.438513997 3.632309103 4.237000863 3.095577609
Week 2 3.795489189 3.671224519 3.808882247 2.341805806
Week 3 2.844909384 3.826465117 4.238444906 2.2300144
Week 4 5.020585625 3.7208625 4.069026754 2.917770732
Week 5 5.197391448 2.379546134 4.06731589 2.557227311
Week 6 2.163323026 3.889777396 4.317488114 1.974081026
Week 7 4.051784948 3.490428515 3.157000421 2.468099531
Week 8 4.789157022 2.975529566 2.451005098 2.58021683
Week 9 2.151762203 0.741937345 0 1.568615918
Week 10 5.297316866 0.955511445 3.054001182 2.360854001
Week 11 4.191168747 1.757857918 3.186352633 2.151762203
Week 12 5.369241705 3.17805383 1.386294361 2.856470206
Week 13 3.169685581 3.55820113 4.188138442 2.219203484
Week 14 4.579852378 2.028148247 1.974081026 2.272125886
Week 15 5.31861007 3.493472658 3.828641396 2.944438979
Week 16 5.27504874 3.864931398 3.968403339 3.109060959
Week 17 4.216562195 3.60004824 4.736198448 2.525728644
Week 18 5.639777145 3.678829118 4.021773869 3.194583132
Week 19 4.237000863 3.020424886 2.90690106 2.424802726
Week 20 4.992471323 3.173878459 2.949688335 2.681021529
Week 21 5.386328244 3.321432413 3.977810746 2.890371758
Week 22 5.469746482 1.62924054 3.157000421 2.525728644
Week 23 2.58021683 2.766319109 3.903990834 1.722766598
Week 24 5.430660554 2.827313622 3.265759411 2.740840024
Week 25 4.131961426 2.533696814 2.90690106 2.272125886
Week 26 5.571773732 1.252762968 2.970414466 2.48490665
Week 27 4.962145085 3.377587516 2.533696814 2.708050201
Week 28 5.481055503 2.815408719 3.131136911 2.766319109
Week 29 5.516649361 3.299533728 3.131136911 2.939161922
Week 30 4.257030144 2.772588722 3.708682081 2.351375257
1899-12-30
Radio TV FB intercetta y= e^(m1x1+m2x2+m3x3+q)
-0.025926704 0.227903607 0.320969306 0.491535341
0.020508237 0.022546496 0.015289616 0.092137196
0.956321089 0.086379036 #N/A #N/A
189.7509807 26 #N/A #N/A
4.247388544 0.193994785 #N/A #N/A

Time FB TV Radio Predicted Sales erre

Week 1 -0.14100274 0.827816347 -0.109851465 19.20 22 3
Week 2 -0.098404523 0.836685311 -0.098751761 11.56 10 -1
Week 3 -0.073759122 0.872065203 -0.109888905 8.73 9 1
Week 4 -0.130167235 0.847997986 -0.105496451 17.21 19 1
Week 5 -0.134751227 0.542307148 -0.105452093 13.42 13 -1
Week 6 -0.056087835 0.8864943 -0.111938235 7.10 7 0
Week 7 -0.105049427 0.795481249 -0.081850614 12.25 12 0
Week 8 -0.124167055 0.678133922 -0.063546483 14.06 13 -1
Week 9 -0.055788101 0.169090197 0 3.86 5 1
Week 10 -0.137341964 0.217764505 -0.079180183 10.28 11 0
Week 11 -0.10866319 0.400622161 -0.08261162 8.63 9 0
Week 12 -0.139206738 0.724289932 -0.035942043 18.23 17 -1
Week 13 -0.082179498 0.810926873 -0.108584624 9.13 9 0
Week 14 -0.118740475 0.462222302 -0.051181414 10.72 10 -1
Week 15 -0.137894027 0.796175021 -0.099264051 18.09 19 1
Week 16 -0.136764625 0.880831807 -0.102887617 19.35 22 3
Week 17 -0.109321558 0.82046398 -0.122794013 12.71 13 0
Week 18 -0.14622083 0.838418426 -0.104271339 20.82 24 4
Week 19 -0.109851465 0.688365727 -0.075366362 11.76 11 0
Week 20 -0.129438324 0.72333835 -0.076475695 15.50 15 -1
Week 21 -0.139649736 0.756966428 -0.10313152 17.71 18 0
Week 22 -0.141812496 0.371309796 -0.081850614 12.64 13 0
Week 23 -0.066896517 0.630454104 -0.101217613 6.35 6 -1
Week 24 -0.140799126 0.644354973 -0.084670376 16.35 16 -1
Week 25 -0.107128139 0.577438644 -0.075366362 10.17 10 0
Week 26 -0.144457726 0.285509199 -0.077013055 12.04 12 0
Week 27 -0.128652065 0.769764379 -0.065690406 16.25 15 -1
Week 28 -0.142105701 0.641641803 -0.081180059 16.63 16 -1
Week 29 -0.143028533 0.751975639 -0.081180059 18.78 19 0
Week 30 -0.110370759 0.631882971 -0.096153901 10.95 11 0
1899-12-30
0 14
0
0
0
0
0
e^(m1x1+m2x2+m3x3+q)
Predicted rispetto a FB
30

25

20

Predicted
15
0.947884039
2.90 10
1.16
0.57 5
1.29
0.52
0
0.10 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
0.45
0.86
0.94
0.32
0.03
0.83
0.07
1.02
0.91
3.05
0.21
3.58
0.46
0.90
0.29
0.14
0.75
0.85
0.47
0.04
1.25
0.73
0.12
0.45
 0.84

6.21%
o a FB

Predicted
Sales

1 23 25 27 29