ECE 302

Prof. Ilya Pollak

Exam 1 Solutions, 2/1/2012, 8-10pm in LILY 1105.

• Your ID will be checked during the exam.

• Please bring a No. 2 pencil to fill out the answer sheet.

• This is a closed-book exam. No calculators are allowed.

• Please read the instructions on this page very carefully.

• Please fill out the following information on your answer sheet:

– Instructor: Ilya Pollak

– Course: ECE 302
– Date: 02/01/2012
– sign the answer sheet
– fill in your last name and the first six letters of your first name
– fill in your student ID
– fill in your section number: 01 if you are in the 3:30-4:20 section and 02 if you are
in the 12:30-1:20 section

• You have 2 hours to complete 20 multiple-choice questions.

• Each correct answer is worth one point, for a total of 20 points.

• After the first student turns in his/her answer sheet and leaves, no one will be allowed to
temporarily leave the exam room and come back, unless it is an emergency.

• Please only turn in the answer sheets.

• There will be no partial credit.

• This document is double-sided.

1
2
Question 1. Let P be a probability law on sample space Ω. Suppose that A ⊂ Ω and B ⊂ Ω and
C ⊂ Ω and A ∪ B ∪ C = Ω. Select the correct statement:

1. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1.

2. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 2.

3. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 3.

4. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 4.

5. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 5.

6. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 6.

7. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 7.

8. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 8.

9. The given information is not enough to determine P(A) + P(B) + P(C).

10. None of the above.

Solution. If A = B = C = Ω then the P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1 + 1 + 1 = 3. If A, B, and C

are mutually exclusive events, then P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = P(Ω) = 1. Thus, there is not enough
information to determine P(A) + P(B) + P(C).
Answer key: 9.

3
Question 2. Let P be a probability law on sample space Ω. Suppose that A ⊂ Ω and B ⊂ Ω and
C ⊂ Ω and A ∩ B ∩ C = Ω. Select the correct statement:

1. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1.

2. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 2.

3. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 3.

4. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 4.

5. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 5.

6. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 6.

7. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 7.

8. P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 8.

9. The given information is not enough to determine P(A) + P(B) + P(C).

10. None of the above.

Solution. The only way for an intersection of three subsets of Ω to be the same as Ω is if each of the
three subsets is equal to Ω: A = B = C = Ω. Therefore, P(A)+P(B)+P(C) = P(Ω)+P(Ω)+P(Ω) =
1 + 1 + 1 = 3.
Answer key: 3.

4
Question 3. The probability of rain in London on Tuesday November 6, 2012, is 0.7. The probability
of a Republican getting elected President of the United States on Tuesday November 6, 2012, is
0.5. These two events (rain in London and Republican getting elected President in America) are
independent. What is the probability that exactly one of these events, but not both, will occur?

1. 0

2. 0.15

3. 0.2

4. 0.35

5. 0.5

6. 0.7

7. 1

8. 1.2

9. The given information is not enough to determine the probability of exactly one of these events
occurring.

10. None of the above.

Solution. Let’s call these events A and B. Since they are independent, the events A and B c are
independent, and the events Ac and B are independent as well. Therefore, the probability of A ∩ B c
(i.e., of rain in London and Republican not getting elected) is equal to the product P(A)P(B c ) =
0.7 · 0.5 = 0.35. The probability of Ac ∩ B (i.e., of no rain in London and Republican getting elected)
is P(Ac )P(B) = 0.3 · 0.5 = 0.15. Since the events A ∩ B c and Ac ∩ B are mutually exclusive, the
probability of their union is the sum of their probabilities: 0.35 + 0.15 = 0.5.
Answer key: 5.

5
Question 4. For a fair coin, the probability of tails is 0.5 and the probability of heads is 0.5.
Independent tosses of a fair coin are performed. The probability of exactly two tails among the first
three tosses is

1. 1/3

2. 2/3

3. 3/8

4. 1/4

5. 3/4

6. 1/27

7. 2/27

8. 1/9

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. This is P(T T H, T HT, HT T ) = 3/8.

Answer key: 3.

6
Question 5. For a fair coin, the probability of tails is 0.5 and the probability of heads is 0.5.
Independent tosses of a fair coin are performed. Given that the first two tosses have different outcomes,
what is the conditional probability that the outcome of the first three tosses is HTH (i.e., H on the
first and third tosses and T on the second)?

1. 1/2

2. 1/4

3. 1/8

4. 1/16

5. 1/32

6. 0

7. 1

8. 2/3

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. Among the eight equally likely sequences of three tosses, four have different outcomes for
the first two tosses: HTH, HTT, THH, and THT. Therefore, the conditional probability of HTH is
1/4.
Answer key: 2.

7
Question 6. For a fair coin, the probability of tails is 0.5 and the probability of heads is 0.5.
Independent tosses of a fair coin are performed. Given that the first 100 tosses are all heads, what is
the conditional probability that the 101-st toss will be a tail?

1. 1/2

2. 1/100

3. 1/101

4. 0

5. 1

6. 1 − (1/2)100

7. 100/101

8. 1/10100

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. Since the tosses are independent, the conditional probability for the 101-st toss to be a tail
is the same as the unconditional probability, i.e., 1/2.
Answer key: 1.

8
Question 7. For a fair coin, the probability of tails is 0.5 and the probability of heads is 0.5.
Independent tosses of a fair coin are performed. What is the probability that the first ten tosses are
HHHHHTTTTT (i.e., that the first five tosses are all heads and the following five tosses are all tails)?

1. 0

2. 1/10

3. 1/2

4. 1/1024

5. 1/5

6. 1

7. 1/3

8. 1/8

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. Since the tosses are independent, the overall probability is the product of the probabilities
of the individual tosses. Since the coin is fair, the probability for each individual toss to be H is 1/2, and
the probability for each individual toss to be T is also 1/2. Therefore, the answer is (1/2)10 = 1/1024.
Answer key: 4.

9
Question 8. An ECE 302 exam has five multiple-choice questions, each with 10 answers. Al thinks
he can solve Questions 1, 2, and 4, and doesn’t know how to do the remaining two questions. For each
question that Al thinks he can solve, he has probability 1/2 of getting the correct answer. For each
of the two remaining questions, Al chooses the answer randomly, according to the discrete uniform
distribution (i.e., each of the 10 answers has probability 1/10 of being chosen). Al’s answers to all
questions are independent. What is the probability that Al will answer all five questions correctly?

1. 3/5

2. 3/10

3. 1/32

4. 1/800

5. 1/2

6. 1/4

7. 1/8

8. 1/100

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. Because the events are independent, we multiply the probabilities of getting each question
correctly to get the probability of getting all questions correctly: (1/2)3 · (1/10)2 = 1/800.
Answer key: 4.

10
Question 9. The sides of a fair six-sided die are labeled with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. For each side,
the probability to come up in a single throw is 1/6. The die is independently thrown five times. The
probability that the side labeled “1” comes up five times out of the five throws, is

1. 0

2. (1/2)5

3. 1

4. (1/6)5

5. 6/5

6. 5/6

7. (1/5)6

8. 1/5

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. The probability of a 1 on one throw is 1/6. Since the throws are independent, the probability
of a 1 on all throws is (1/6)5 .
Answer key: 4.

11
Question 10. The sides of a fair six-sided die are labeled with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. For each side,
the probability to come up in a single throw is 1/6. The die is independently thrown twice. The
probability that the numbers that come up on the two throws sum to three is

1. 1/2

2. 1/6

3. 1/8

4. 1/36

5. 0

6. 1

7. 1/18

8. 1/72

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. The only two sequences that result in a sum of 3 are 1,2 and 2,1. Overall, there are 36
equally likely sequences. Therefore, the probability is 2/36 = 1/18.
Answer key: 7.

12
Question 11. Bill is 34 years old. He is intelligent, but unimaginative, compulsive, and generally
lifeless. In school, he was strong in mathematics but weak in social studies and humanities. Let
A = “Bill plays music for a hobby”
B = “Bill plays jazz music for a hobby”
C = “Bill is an accountant who plays jazz music for a hobby”
It is given that P(A) 6= P(B) and P(A) 6= P(C) and P(B) 6= P(C). Select one answer:

1. P(A) < P(B) < P(C)

2. P(A) < P(C) < P(B)

3. P(B) < P(A) < P(C)

4. P(B) < P(C) < P(A)

5. P(C) < P(A) < P(B)

6. P(C) < P(B) < P(A)

7. The given information is not enough to be able to order P(A), P(B), and P(C) from smallest
to largest.

8. None of the above.

Solution. Since C ⊂ B ⊂ A, and since P(A) 6= P(B) and P(B) 6= P(C), we have that P(C) <
P(B) < P(A).
Answer key: 6.

13
Question 12. A and B are two events such that P(A|B) = 0.5. Select one answer:

1. P(B|A) = 0.5

2. P(B|A) < 0.5

3. P(B|A) > 0.5

4. The given information is not enough to determine whether P(B|A) is greater than, less than, or
equal to 0.5.

Solution. P(B|A) = P(A|B)P(B)/P(A). Therefore, without knowing P(A) and P(B) we cannot
determine P(B|A).
Suppose that the sample space consists of four outcomes: 1, 2, 3, and 4. Using this sample space, we
can construct examples when P(A|B) = 0.5 and any of the three first answer keys hold. First, suppose
B = {1, 2, 3, 4} and A = {1, 2}. Then P(A|B) = 0.5 as given, and P(B|A) = 1 > 0.5. Next, suppose
that B = {1, 2} and A = {2, 3}. Then P(A|B) = P(B|A) = 0.5. Finally, suppose that B = {1, 2} and
A = {2, 3, 4}. Then P(A|B) = 0.5 as given, and P(B|A) = 1/3 < 0.5.
Answer key: 4.

14
Question 13. According to the historical data gathered by an insurance company, the probability of
a fire is 0.01. A manufacturer of fire alarms has determined through testing that a certain fire alarm
has a 0.1 conditional probability to go off given that there is no fire, and a 0.2 conditional probability
to remain silent given that there is a fire. If you hear this fire alarm go off, what is the conditional
probability that there is a fire?

1. 0.16

2. 32/103

3. 0.107

4. 0.008

5. 8/107

6. 16/103

7. 0.8

8. 0.9

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. Let event A be the alarm going off and event F be that there is a fire. Then, according to
Bayes’ rule,
P(F |A) = P(A|F )P(F )/P(A)
To get the denominator, apply the total probability theorem:

P(A) = P(A|F )P(F ) + P(A|F c )P(F c ) = 0.8 · 0.01 + 0.1 · 0.99 = 0.008 + 0.099 = 0.107

Therefore,
P(F |A) = P(A|F )P(F )/P(A) = 0.008/0.107 = 8/107.
Answer key: 5.

15
Question 14. A card is drawn from a deck fo 52 cards in such a way that each card is equally likely
to be picked. Another card is drawn from the remainder of the deck, so that each of the remaining 51
cards is equally likely to be picked. The probability that neither of the two cards is an Ace is:

1. (48/52)2

2. (4/52)2

3. (4/52) · (4/51)

4. (4/52) · (3/51)

5. (48/52) · (47/51)

6. (47/51)2

7. impossible to determine based on the given information

8. none of the above

Solution. The probability to not pick an Ace on the first draw is 48/52. Given that the first card is
not an Ace, the probability to not pick an Ace on the second draw is 47/51. Therefore, the probability
to not pick an Ace on either of the first two draws is (48/52)(47/51).
Answer key: 5.

16
Question 15. A card is drawn from a full deck of 52 cards in such a way that each card is equally
likely to be picked. (A full deck consists of {Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King} of each
of the following four suits: hearts, clubs, spades, and diamonds.) Determine the probability that the
Queen of spades is drawn.

1. 1/4

2. 1/13

3. 1/52

4. impossible to determine based on the given information

5. none of the above

Solution. There are 52 equally likely outcomes in the sample space, i.e., the probability for each
outcome, including the Queen of spades, is 1/52.
Answer key: 3.

17
Question 16. A card is drawn from a full deck of 52 cards in such a way that each card is equally
likely to be picked. (A full deck consists of {Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King} of each
of the following four suits: hearts, clubs, spades, and diamonds.) Determine the probability that an
Ace is drawn.

1. 1/4

2. 1/13

3. 1/52

4. impossible to determine based on the given information

5. none of the above

Solution. There are 52 equally likely outcomes in the sample space, i.e., the probability for each
outcome is 1/52. There are four Aces in the deck. Therefore, the probability of an Ace is 4/52 = 1/13.
Answer key: 2.

18
Question 17. A card is drawn from a full deck of 52 cards in such a way that each card is equally
likely to be picked. (A full deck consists of {Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King} of each
of the following four suits: hearts, clubs, spades, and diamonds.) Determine the probability that a
diamond is drawn.

1. 1/4

2. 1/13

3. 1/52

4. impossible to determine based on the given information

5. none of the above

Solution. There are 52 equally likely outcomes in the sample space, i.e., the probability for each
outcome is 1/52. Thirteen of the outcomes are diamonds. Hence, the probability of a diamond is
13/52 = 1/4.
Answer key: 1.

19
Question 18. A card is drawn from a full deck of 52 cards in such a way that each card is equally
likely to be picked. (A full deck consists of {Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King} of each
of the following four suits: hearts, clubs, spades, and diamonds.) Given that the selected card is a
diamond, determine the conditional probability that it is an Ace.

1. 1/4

2. 1/13

3. 1/52

4. impossible to determine based on the given information

5. none of the above

Solution. There are 13 equally likely diamonds in the deck. One of them is an Ace. Hence, the
conditional probability of an Ace given a diamond is 1/13.
Answer key: 2.

20
Question 19. A box contained two gold coins and two silver coins. One coin is drawn at random
so that each coin is equally likely to be drawn. Another coin is drawn at random from the remaining
three coins in such a way that each remaining coin is equally likely to be drawn. Given that the second
drawn coin is silver, what is the conditional probability that the first drawn coin is gold?

1. 0

2. 1

3. 1/2

4. 2/3

5. 3/4

6. 1/4

7. 1/3

8. 5/6

9. impossible to determine based on the given information

10. none of the above

Solution. Let event 1G be that the first coin was gold and let event 2S be that the second coin was
silver. Then

P(1G) = 1/2
P(1Gc ) = 1/2
P(2S|1G) = 2/3
P(2S|1Gc ) = 1/3
P(2S) = P(2S|1G)P(1G) + P(2S|1Gc )P(1Gc ) = (2/3) · (1/2) + (1/3) · (1/2) = 1/2
(by the total probability theorem)
P(1G|2S) = P(2S|1G)P(1G)/P(2S) = (2/3) · (1/2)/(1/2) = 2/3
(by Bayes’ rule)

Answer key : 4.

21
Question 20. Bill is a physicist with probability 0.6, an amateur jazz musician with probability 0.7,
and is neither with probability 0.25. Determine the probability that he is a physicist or an amateur
jazz musician but not both.

1. 0.1

2. 0.2

3. 0.3

4. 0.4

5. 0.5

6. 0.6

7. impossible to determine based on the given information

8. none of the above

Solution. Bill is a physicist or plays jazz or both with probability 1 − 0.25 = 0.75. Therefore, the
probability that Bill both is a physicist and plays jazz is 0.6 + 0.7 − 0.75 = 0.55. Here we are using
the following property:
P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∪ B) = P(A ∩ B)
Now we can use the following property:

P(A ∩ B c ) + P(Ac ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) − 2P(A ∩ B)

Therefore, the probability that Bill is a physicist or plays jazz but not both is 0.6 + 0.7 − 2 · 0.55 = 0.2.
Answer key: 2.

22