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Is There a Correlation Between NFL AP MVPs and Their Team’s

Regular Season Success?

Word Count: 1,639

Introduction

The National Football League (NFL) AP Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is given

annually to the player who is considered by the Associated Press (AP) to have the most impressive

and impactful performance during the regular season. Selected by a panel of 50 sportswriters and

broadcasters (the Associated Press), the highly regarded and revered Season MVP title is awarded

to the player who demonstrates the most skill, leadership, and has the largest impact on their

team’s success, as well as their fan likeability. While all of the positions are eligible, 50 times out

of the 67 times it was awarded, the recipient was a QuarterBack. This is because they are the

leader of the Offensive line, and often the center of the team. The most recognized names in

football are mostly, if not all quarterbacks.

One of the most widely recognized measures of player ability is the Madden NFL rating,

which is an overall score assigned to players in the popular Madden video game franchise which

started in 1998. These ratings are determined by analysts at EA Sports, and calculate a player’s

skill level based on multiple factors such as speed, strength, awareness, past performance, and

much more. As mentioned by DexAnalytics, “The Madden Rating for each player is a composite

of scores in 43 categories that each player is graded on and players are categorized as either

rookies or veterans. For rookies, data from pro days and the NFL combine are used to determine

the ratings for speed, strength, and other performance categories.” This rating is considered by all

to be an accurate measure of a player’s skill, and players themselves anticipate this rating.

As a lifelong NFL fan, I have always been fascinated by the relationship between player

success and actual performance. I have noticed that some MVPs enter the season with high

Madden ratings, while others begin with relatively low ratings and exceed expectations. This led
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me to question whether there is a meaningful correlation between Madden NFL ratings and the

season success of MVP winners. By analyzing statistical relationships between these two

variables, I intend to better understand how well pre-season evaluations are able to predict

real-world performance.

Plan of Investigation

To explore the correlation between Madden NFL ratings and season success, I first

compiled a dataset of all NFL MVP winners since the year 2000. For each MVP, I recorded their

team, regular season win total, and Madden rating for that season. The Madden ratings were

sourced from EA Sports’ official ratings released before the start of each respective season, while

regular season records were obtained from historical NFL standings.

With this data, I will use statistical analysis to determine if a relationship exists between a

player’s Madden rating and their team's regular season success. Specifically I will be using a two
-

P
sample t-test to ensure correlation between MVP Madden Rank and regular season success. On top

of that, I will find the statistical probability of the position for next year’s MVP, based on previous

trends.

Essential Question:

Is there a significant correlation between a NFL AP Season MVP and the success of their team in

the regular season based on wins, and what is the most likely rating for the season MVP next year

and their season success?

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Hypothesis: performing a 2
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I believe that there is no significant correlation between the Season MVP and the overall success

of their team for a multitude of reasons, one of the bigger ones being that team success is not

dependent solely on the performance of a single player, but the performance of all the players.
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List of all Relevant Data

This table displays the year, MVP winner, their Madden NFL rating, and regular season wins. The

ratings are taken from the Madden NFL game released after the respective season. I.E., Marshall

Faulk’s rating for his 2000 season appeared in Madden 2001, while Josh Allen’s 2024 season

rating was featured in Madden 25. This makes sure that the Madden Rating is as accurate as
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possible. The positions are QuarterBack (QB), and Running Back (RB). (Note, 2003 had two

recognized MVPs)

Paired T-Test to Determine Correlation Between MVP and Season Success

The T-Test will help determine whether my hypothesis is correct, or it will dismiss it and provide

the null hypothesis.

Null Hypothesis = t > .05 (There is a significant correlation between Madden Rating and Regular Season Success)

Alternate Hypothesis= t < .05 (There is no significant correlation between Madden Rating and Regular Season Success)

O
d = difference per paired value

n = Number of datapoints

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Leading to:

t=1
With a t-value of 1, the difference between Madden ratings and season wins is small relative to
their variability. This suggests that there is no statistically significant relationship between the two
variables. Since the t-value is close to zero, the p-value is likely high, meaning we fail to reject the
null hypothesis. Therefore, Madden ratings of the MVP do not appear to have a strong or
consistent impact on the number of wins in a season.
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Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient:

In this instance, x stands for the Madden rating, and y stands for the Regular season wins.

In this table, the x stands for the Madden Rating, and the y stands for the regular season wins.The
first row is the average MVP Madden rating subtracted from the individual player’s rating,
effectively showing the deviation from the mean. The same is done for the regular season wins.
These calculations are necessary in order to calculate the Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient.
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The value of the numerator is 10

The values in the numerator are 933 and 55

r = 0.044
The Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) between Madden NFL ratings and regular season wins is
approximately 0.044. This indicates a very weak positive correlation, suggesting that Madden
ratings have little to no direct relationship with season success.

This is a graph of what the correlation would look like.

Probability Of Next Season’s Record of the MVP Team

↓
In order to find the probabilities of each number of season wins, I will use the following formula:

I will only be calculating from the Madden rating of 76 and up, because there were no MVPs that
had a rating below 76.
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Thus, we have the probability of all the Madden ratings. Again, anything below 76, and between
the presented numbers will have a probability of 0. The following graph is a visual representation
of the calculations.

As seen in the graph, 98 has the highest probability of the Madden rating for the MVP in the next
season. This means there is a 19% chance that the MVP next year will have a Madden rating of 98.
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Probability Of Next Season’s Record of the MVP Team

In order to find the probabilities of each number of season wins, I will use the following formula:

I will only be calculating from 10 wins and up, because there were no players that had below 10
wins

Thus, we have the probability of all the possible numbers of wins. Again, anything below 10 will
have a probability of 0. The following graph is a visual representation of the calculations.
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As seen in the graph, 13 has the highest probability of the number of regular season wins in the
next season. This means there is a 26% chance that the MVP next year will have 13 wins in their
regular season.

Conclusion

The statistical analysis clearly shows that there is no significant correlation between the

NFL AP Season MVP and their team’s regular season success based on wins. The paired t-test

produced a t-value equal to 1, which indicates that the difference between Madden ratings and win

totals can not be considered significant. On top of that, the Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r =

0.044) is very close to zero, also suggesting an extremely weak relationship between the two. This

leads to the conclusion that a higher Madden rating does not always necessarily mean more regular

season wins. This makes sense, as team success depends on multiple factors beyond the individual

player’s performance, such as coaching, defense, and overall team composition, as well as the

injuries, morale, and much more.

The probability analysis indicates that based on previous trends, the most likely Madden

rating for next season’s MVP is 98, with a 19% chance. Similarly based on previous trends, the

most likely number of regular season wins for the MVP’s team is 13, with a 26% probability.

These probabilities are based on past trends but do not guarantee future outcomes, as player

performance and team success can vary with each season. While these serve calculations provide

insight into patterns of the past, they can not establish a certain direct cause-and-effect relationship

between Madden ratings and team wins.

To improve this project, I could have expanded the dataset by including more seasons,

bringing in data back further than 2000. This would help by increasing the sample size and
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strengthening the statistical analysis. Plus, considering other performance stats, such as player

statistics (passing yards, touchdowns, etc.), would provide a more detailed and thorough view of

individual contributions to team success. Even with that, sports are still highly unpredictable, and

many factors beyond Madden ratings and past MVP trends can influence season outcomes.

Injuries, team strength, coaching decisions, other teams, public opinion, morale, and luck play

roles in determining a team’s regular season success. There are vast amounts of data that I

neglected, such as team roster strength, strength of schedule, and in-game performance statistics,

all of which could have impacted the results. Even though there is a certain degree of uncertainty,

it is a known fact that the MVP’s team will have a good regular season. This is because the MVP is

chosen by the public AP, and they regard team success highly, as seen in the provided data.
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Sources:

“Home.” Madden Ratings, maddenratings.weebly.com/. Accessed 12 Feb. 2025.

“List of NFL MVP Awards.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 18 Feb. 2025,

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NFL_MVP_awards.

NFL Rosters, www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/rosters.nsf. Accessed 27 Feb. 2025.

“AP NFL Most Valuable Player Award.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 26 Feb. 2025,

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AP_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award.

“Body Composition and Madden NFL Video Game Ratings Part 1 - Madden Overall Rating.”

Dexalytics News // Body Composition and Madden NFL Video Game Ratings Part 1 -

Madden Overall Rating //,

www.dexalytics.com/news/body-composition-and-madden-nfl-vid

eo-game-ratings/#:~:text=The%20Madden%20Rating%20for%20each,strength%2C%20an

d%20other%20performance%20categories. Accessed 27 Feb. 2025.

“Correlation Coefficient Calculator.” Correlation Coefficient Calculator - Pearson and Spearman’s

Rank, with Solution, www.statskingdom.com/correlation-calculator.html. Accessed 28 Feb.

2025.

*All relevant data is sourced from the Madden NFL series by EA Sports