HOLY CROSS COLLEGE

Sta. Lucia, Sta. Ana, Pampanga

SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING, COMPUTER AND

LIBRARY STUDIES
Second Semester, A.Y. 2024 - 2025

INSTITUTE OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

PRINCIPLES OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING

MIDTERM LECTURE
Chapter 4: Introduction to Travel Demand Forecasting

Transportation Planning
Functional area within transportation engineering that deals with the relationship of land use to travel patterns
and travel demands.
Transport Demand Models

 Refer to a series of mathematical equations that are used to represent how choices are made when people
travel.
 Travel demand occurs because of thousands of individual travelers making individual decisions on how,
where and when to travel.
 These decisions are affected by many factors such as family situations, characteristics of the person
making the trip, and the choices (destination, route and mode) available for the trip.

Travel Demand Forecasting

Number of persons/vehicles expected to travel between a particular origin and destination via a particular route
and mode of travel over a given time period.
Required for:

 New construction
 Expansion/improvement of existing facilities
Trip is a one-way movement from a point of origin to a point of destination.
Classification of trips:

 By purpose (work, school, shop, other)

 By Time of Day (a.m., p.m., peak, off-peak)
 By Person Type (income, car ownership, family size, accessibility, etc
By the end of the travel demand forecasting process, the traffic volumes (the number of vehicles per
unit time) on the roads will be produced, which provide useful information about the congestion on the
streets.

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Thereafter, transportation planners can select the best transportation projects by reviewing the resulting
levels of congestion from a series of transportation alternatives.

Travel demand modeling aims to establish the spatial distribution of travel explicitly by means of an appropriate
system of zones. Modeling of demand thus implies a procedure for predicting what travel decisions people would
like to make given the generalized travel cost of each alternative.

Four decisions are the basis of the traditional travel demand model:
1. Choice and reason to travel
2. Destination to travel to

3. Mode by which to travel

4. Route on which to travel
The model starts with defining the study area and dividing
them into several zones and considering all the transport
network in the system. The database also includes the
current (base year) levels of population, economic activity
like employment, shopping space, educational, and leisure
facilities of each zone. Then the trip generation model is
evolved which uses the above data to estimate the total
number of trips generated and attracted by each zone.
The next step is the allocation of these trips from each zone
to various other destination zones in the study area using
trip distribution models. The output of the above model is a
trip matrix which denote the trips from each zone to every
other zones. In the succeeding step the trips are allocated
to different modes based on the modal attributes using the
modal split models. This is essentially slicing the trip matrix
for various modes generated to a mode specific trip matrix.
Finally, each trip matrix is assigned to the route network of
that particular mode using the trip assignment models. The
step will give the loading on each link of the network.

4 – STEP SEQUENTIAL MODEL

1. Trip Generation
Calculate the number of trips starting in each zone for a particular trip purpose

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 2. Trip Distribution

Produce a table of the number of trips starting in each zone and ending up in each other zone.

3. Modal Choice / Modal Split

Complete the allocation of the various trips among the available transportation systems (bus, train, pedestrian,
and private vehicles)

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 4. Trip/Route Assignment
Identify the specific routes on each transportation system that will be selected by the travelers.

Trip Generation
Trip generation is the stage in the travel demand analysis process which studies the relationships between the
urban area development and the travel characteristics.
Two types of trips:

1. Home-based trip (HB) - Trips that begin or end at a residence

2. Non-home based trip (NHB) - Trips that neither begin or end at a residence

Trip Production
Estimated from socio-economic characteristics of population and travel needs for various purposes.

Trip Attraction
Estimated from availability and intensity of nonresidential opportunities
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TRIP GENERATION
COMMON METHODS FOR TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS
1. Trip Rate Method – categorical, Trip generation rates are based on one or several parameters or categories
2. Cross-classification - measure the changes in one variable (trips) when other variables (land use etc.) are
accounted for
3. Regression Method – statistical, Trip generation rates are estimated from models incorporating parameter.

Mathematical equation that describes trips as a function of another variable

Trip Rate Method

Categories:

1. Land use (residential, commercial, industrial, recreational, etc.);

2. Car ownership (per household)
3. Density of development
4. Income; etc.

Sample Problem (Trip Rate Method):

Determine the number of trips per day attracted to a zone where 220 downtown retail and 650 nonretail workers
are employed.

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Solution:
HBW = 1.7(650) + 1.7(220) = 1,479 trips

HBO = 2.0(650) + 5.0(220) = 2,400 trips

NHB = 1.0(650) + 3.0(220) = 1,310 trips
Total = 5,189 trips

Cross-Classification

 Extension of the trip rate

 Estimate trip production characteristics of households which are sorted in a number of categories
according to a set of properties that characterize the household

Sample Problem (Cross-Classification):

The number of Trips per Household by auto ownership obtained from a regional study. Determine the trip rates
and forecasted number of trips in zone statistics showed that

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Solution:
Forecasted Number of Households in Study zone by Auto Ownership and size

Trip rates

Forecasted number of Trips in Zone

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Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

Sample Problem (Multiple Linear Regression Analysis)

Before the household moves: Y = 0.12+ 0.09*6 + 0.011*50 - 0.15*4.5= 0.535 trips
After the household moves: Y = 0.12+ 0.09*6 + 0.011*50 - 0.15*1.5 = 0.985 trips

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The trip generation stage will yield total trips generated or attracted by a zone/facility. The totals for the Origin -
Destination Matrix/ Table may be developed:

Origin – Destination Matrix Table – give the number of trips from different origin zones/facilities to different
destination zones/facilities.

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TRIP DISTRIBUTION
 Process by which trips generated in one zone are allocated to other zones
 Predicts where trips go from each TAZ
 Determines trips between pairs of zones
Tij: trips from TAZ i going to TAZ j 

METHODS FOR TRIP DISTRIBUTION

1. Growth Factor Methods

 Assume that in the future trip making pattern will remain substantially the same as today but that the volume of
trips will increase according to the growth of the generating and attracting zones
 Simpler than synthetic methods
 Often adequate for small towns where considerable changes in land use and external factors are not expected
a. Constant Factor Method
 basic assumption: the growth which is expected to take place in the survey area will have an equal effect on all
the trips in the area
 relationship between the present and future trips
b. Average Factor Method
 takes into account the varying rates of growth of trip making which can be expected in the differing zones of a
survey area
 average growth factors used refers to origin and destination ends of the trip

c. Detroit Method
assumes that trips originating from zone i will increase as predicted by the growth factor for zone i and will be
attracted to zone j in proportion to the growth factor of total trips
d. Fratar Method
 assumes that the trips tij will increase in proportion to Ei and also in proportion to Ej
 Multiplication of the existing flow by two growth factors will result in the future trips originating in zone i being
greater than the future forecasts and so a normalizing expression is introduced which is the sum of all the existing
trips out of zone i multiplied by the by the growth factor at the destination end of the trip
e. Furness Method
 the flows from a zone are balanced in terms of generations from each zone and then the attractions to a zone area
balanced

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Example (Trip Distribution):

Solution (Average Factor Method):

Repeat the process until % Deviation reaches 1-5%

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MODE CHOICE/MODAL SPLIT
MODE CHOICE/MODAL SPLIT - model that is concerned with the trip-maker’s behavior regarding the
selection of travel mode
1. Characteristics of the trip maker
 car availability and/or ownership
 possession of a driving license
 household structure (young couple, couple with children, retired, singles, etc.)
 income
 decisions made elsewhere (e.g., the need to use a car at work, take children to school, etc.)
 residential density
2. Characteristics of the journey
 trip purpose (e.g., the journey to work is normally easier to undertake by
 public transport than other journeys because of its regularity and the adjustment
 possible in the long run.
 time of the day when the journey is undertaken (late trips are more difficult to accommodate by public
transport)
3. Characteristics of the transport facility
Quantitative factors
 relative travel time
 relative monetary costs
 availability and cost of parking
Qualitative factors
 comfort and convenience
 reliability and regularity
 protection, security
UTILITY FUNCTIONS
- measures the degree of satisfaction that the people derive from their choices
DISUTILITY FUNCTIONS
- represents the generalized cost (related to impedance) that is associated with each choice
Specification: Linear weighted sum of independent variables
𝑈 = 𝑎𝑜 + 𝑎1𝑋1 + 𝑎2𝑋2 + ⋯ 𝑎𝑟𝑋𝑟
Where:
 U = utility function derived from a choice defined by magnitudes of attributes X that are present in that
choice and weighted by parameters
 In the context of mode choice, U is a disutility and is negative because independent variables such as
travel time, cost are perceived as losses

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MULTINOMIAL LOGIT (MNL) MODEL
- calculates the probability of choosing mode K if disaggregate or proportion of travelers in the aggregate case that
will select a specific mode K according to the following relationship:

Where: p = probability of selecting mode k

- general form of this equation resembles the fractional term of the gravity model of the trip distribution\
Example:
The people who go from Zone 1 to Zone 4 have two choices of transportation: private automobile and local bus,
which is operated by a local public transportation authority. A calibration process has resulted in the following
utility function for the auto and bus:

Where:
X1 = waiting time, in min X3 = access time, in min
X2 = line – haul time, in min X4 = out-of-pocket cost, in cents
The interchange trips between Zone 1 and Zone 4 for the target-year 2005 has been forecasted, the interchange
trips between Zone 1 and Zone 4 are 4600. The target-year service attributes of the two competing modes have
been estimated in Table 1 below:
The target-year service attributes of the two competing modes have been estimated to be:

Requirement 1:
Assuming that the calibrated mode-specific constants ak are –0.14 for the automobile and –0.60 for the bus, use
the logit model to estimate the target-year market shares of the automobile and bus and the resulting fare
revenue of the bus system, considering 0.50 USD per trip.
Requirement 2:
A proposal is submitted to build a subway transit system (ST) between Zone 1 and Zone 4 for this town. A
study has projected that the service attributes of the proposed subway system will be:

Based on professional experience, the mode-specific constant for the subway system is –0.45. Estimate the new
market shares of three modes that will result from implementing the subway system proposal and the effect on
the revenues of the public transportation authority, which operates the bus and subway systems.
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Solution:
Requirement 1:
𝑈𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜 = −0.14 − 0.05(0) − 0.02(15) − 0.025(5) − 0.001(80) = −0.645
𝑈𝐵𝑢𝑠 = −0.60 − 0.05(15) − 0.02(35) − 0.025(10) − 0.001(50) = −2.35
Therefore, the proportions of trips that will select the automobile and bus can be estimated as follows:
𝑒 −0.645
𝑝(𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜) = −0.645 = 84.62%
𝑒 + 𝑒 −2.35
𝑒 −2.35
𝑝(𝐵𝑢𝑠) = −0.645 = 15.38%
𝑒 + 𝑒 −2.35

The market shares of the automobile and bus are calculated as:
𝑇14 (𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜) = (0.8462)(4600) = 3892.52 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠
𝑇14 (𝐵𝑢𝑠) = (0.1538)(4600) = 707.48 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠

The fare revenue of the automobile system:

𝑅𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜 = (3892.52 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠/𝑑𝑎𝑦) ($0.50/𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝) = $1946.26

The fare revenue of the bus system:

𝑅𝐵𝑢𝑠 = (707.48 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠/𝑑𝑎𝑦) ($0.50/𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝) = $353.74

Requirement 2:
By introducing the subway system, the utilities for automobile and bus will keep the same as those calculated in
the above Question 1, which are U(Auto) = -1.095 and U(Bus) = -2.35. The utility of the proposed subway
system is calculated as follows:
𝑈𝑆𝑢𝑏𝑤𝑎𝑦 = −0.45 − 0.05(5) − 0.02(30) − 0.025(10) − 0.001(100) = −1.65
Therefore, the proportions of trips that will select the automobile and bus can be estimated as follows:
𝑒 −0.645
𝑝(𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜) = −0.645 = 64.61%
𝑒 + 𝑒 −2.35 + 𝑒 −1.65
𝑒 −2.35
𝑝(𝐵𝑢𝑠) = −0.645 = 11.74%
𝑒 + 𝑒 −2.35 + 𝑒 −1.65
𝑒 −1.65
𝑝(𝑆𝑢𝑏𝑤𝑎𝑦) = −0.645 = 23.65%
𝑒 + 𝑒 −2.35 + 𝑒 −1.65
The new market shares after the introduction of the subway system are calculated as follows:
𝑇14(𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜) = (0.6461) ∗ 4600 = 2972.06 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠/𝑑𝑎𝑦
𝑇14(𝐵𝑢𝑠) = (0.1174) ∗ 4600 = 540.04 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠/𝑑𝑎𝑦
𝑇14(𝑆𝑢𝑏𝑤𝑎𝑦) = (0.2365) ∗ 4600 = 1087.9 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠/𝑑𝑎𝑦

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The fare revenue of the automobile system:

𝑅𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜 = (2972.06 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠/𝑑𝑎𝑦) ($0.50/𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝) = $1486.08

The fare revenue of the bus system:

𝑅𝐵𝑢𝑠 = (540.04 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠/𝑑𝑎𝑦) ($0.50/𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝) = $270.02

The fare revenue of the subway:

𝑅𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜 = (1087.9 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠/𝑑𝑎𝑦) ($0.50/𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝) = $543.95

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ROUTE/TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
Route Assignment
 Determines which route on the transportation network will be used when making the trip
 often based on just minimum distance or time
 some models do more than one route for each OD pair
All-or-Nothing Scenario
The simplest route choice and assignment method is All-or-nothing assignment. This method assumes that there
are no congestion effects, that all drivers consider the same attributes for route choice and that they perceive and
weigh them in the same way. The absence of congestion effects means that link cost is fixed; the assumption
that all drivers perceive the same costs means that every driver from i to j must choose the same route.
Therefore, all drivers are assigned to one route between i and j and no driver is assigned to other, less attractive,
routes. These assumptions are probably reasonable in sparse and uncongested networks where there are few
alternative routes, and they are very different in cost.
The assignment algorithm itself is the procedure that loads the matrix T to the shortest path trees and produces
the flows VA, B on links (between nodes A and B). All load algorithms start with an initialization stage, in this
case making all VA, B = 0 and then apply one of two basic variations: pair-by-pair methods and once -through
approaches.
Example:
Assign the vehicle trips shown in the following O-D trip table to the network, using the all-or-nothing
assignment technique.
To summarize your results, list all the links in the network and their corresponding traffic volume after loading.
Origin-Destination Trip Table:

Solution:
The all-or-nothing technique simply assumes that all the traffic between a particular origin and destination will
take the shortest path (with respect to time). For example, all the 200 vehicles that travel between nodes 1 and 4
will travel via nodes 1-5-4. The tables shown below indicate the routes that were selected for loading as well as
the total traffic volume for each link in the system after all the links were load.

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