Travel Forecasting Process

•Trip Characteristics

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 Travel Characteristics
 Trip
• A journey that connects two
activity locations i.e., an origin
and a destination
How many trips are there in
the journey from home to
transit station to work?
• Can involve multiple modes

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 Travel Characteristics
 Trip purpose
• Usually, the purpose of a
trip is defined by the type Work trip
of activity conducted at the
destination

• What about the blue arrow?

How do you define the
Eat out trip
purpose of this trip?
Return home trip!

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 Categorization of Trips

 Basic categorization of trips

• Home-based trips: Constitutes ~ 70
to 90% of all trips
 Home-based school trips
 Home-based school trips
 Home-based other trips

• Non-home-based trips: Constitutes

~ 30 to 10% of all trips

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 Categorization of
Trips (3)
 Finer categorization of trips
• Work trips
• Escort trips
 Pick-up/drop-off of children and
elderly
• Shopping trips
 Includes window shopping as well
• Social or recreation trips
 Visiting friends, family
• Personal Business trips
 Bank, servicing, salon

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Travel Characteristics
 Tour
• A collection of trips that starts and
ends at the same location
• Home-based tours: Where the
home is the anchor
• Work-based tours: Where the work
is the anchor

• How many tours are here?

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Travel Characteristics
 Tour
• A collection of trips that starts and
ends at the same location
• Home-based tours: Where the
home is the anchor
• Work-based tours: Where the work
is the anchor

• Now how many tours are there?

 1 home-based tour
 1 work based sub-tour

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 Trip-End
 Since the trips are determined without
regard to destination, they are referred to
as trip ends.
 Each trip has two ends, and they are described
in terms of trip purpose, or whether the trips
are either produced by a traffic zone or
attracted to a traffic zone.
 For example, a home-to-work trip would be
considered to have a trip end produced in the
home zone and attracted to the work zone.
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 Trip-End Definitions
TRIP GENERATION MODEL DEFINITIONS:

• Home-Based (HB) Trip: A trip which either begins or ends at home

• Non-Home-Based (NHB) Trip: A trip which neither begins nor

ends at home.

• Trip Production (Pi ): The home end of a HB trip or the origin of a

NHB trip

• Trip Attraction (Aj ): The non-home end of a HB trip or

the destination of a NHB trip.

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Production- Attraction
 Trip-End Definitions
Origin & Destination defined in terms of direction
Production & Attraction defined in terms of land use

Residential Residential

Nonresidential Nonresidential

Zone I Zone J
Two Trip ends: one origin Two Trip ends: one origin
and one destination, or and one destination, or
two productions two attractions

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 PRODUCTION ATTRACTION
Example 1:
Zone 1 Zone 2

H W

Two HB trips: H--> W

W --> H

Zone 1: 2 productions
Zone 2: 2 attractions

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 PRODUCTION ATTRACTION
Example 2:
Zone 1
Zone 2

H
W

How many HB and NHB trips?

How many production and attraction
is each zones?

S Zone
3

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 Production, Attraction
How many HB and NHB trips?
How many production and attraction
is each zones?

Zone 1 Zone 2

H W

S Zone 3

Two HB trips: H → W; S → H
One NHB trip:
O i WW→ S

Zone 1: 2 productions
Zone 2: 1 production; 1 attraction
Zone 3: 2 attractions
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Origins/Destinations vs
Productions/Attractions

fl
The profession has traditionally used productions &
attractions:
• OK if dealing with 24-hour work trips
• Lose directionality if dealing with peak-period flows

We will typically use origins/destinations.

 Trip Generation

/2011
 Temporal Distribution of
Trip Making

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Spatial Distribution of Trip
Making

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 Trip Generation
 Trips are estimated by purpose (categories)
 Work
 School
 Shopping
 Social or recreational
 Others (medical)
 Travel behavior of trip-makers depends somewhat on trip
purpose
 Work trips
 regular
 Often during peak periods
 Usually same origin/destination
 School trips
 Regular
 Same origin/destination
 Shopping/recreational
 Highly variable by origin and destination, number, and time of day
 Trip Generation
 The Aggregate (macro) Models
 The aggregate models consider zone to be the smallest
unit and calculate numbers of trips generated by each TAZ
based on the zonal population, average zonal income, etc.

 The Disaggregate (Micro) Models

 The disaggregate models consider a household (a
residential unit where usually a group of people live) to be
the smallest unit and calculate number of trips generated
by each household based on household income, number
of persons living in the household, etc.
 Trips generated at different types of households are then
combined to get the estimate of zonal trip generation.
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