PERT and CPM

The objective of critical path analysis is to estimate the total project

duration and to assign starting and finishing times to all activities
involved in the project. This helps to check the actual progress against
the scheduled duration of the project.
The duration of individual activities may be uniquely determined (in
case of CPM) or may involve the three time estimates (in case of PERT),
out of which the expected duration of an activity is computed. Having
done this, the
• following factors should be known in order to prepare the project
scheduling.
(i) Total completion time of the project.
(ii) Earlier and latest start time of each activity.
(iii) Critical activities and critical path.
(iv) Float for each activity, i.e. the amount of time by which the
completion of a non-critical activity can be delayed, without
delaying the total project completion time.
CRITICAL PATH METHOD
Facts to be known
i. Total completion of project
ii. Earlier and latest start time for each activity
iii. Critical activities and critical path
iv. Float for each activity
• Notations
Ei-Earliest occurrence time of an event, i. This is the earliest time for an event
to occur when all the preceding activities have been completed, without
delaying the entire project.
Li -Latest allowable time of an event, i. This is the latest time at which an
event can occur without causing a delay in project’s completion time.
ESij-Early starting time of an activity (i, j). This is the earliest time an activity
should start without affecting the project completion.
LSij-Late starting time of an activity (i, j). This is the latest time an activity
should start without delaying the project completion.
EFij-Early finishing time of an activity (i, j). This is the earliest time an
activity should finish without affecting the project completion.

LFij-Late finishing time of an activity (i, j). This is the latest time an
activity should finish without delaying the project completion
t ij = Duration of an activity (i, j).
A network diagram should have only one initial event and one end
event. The other events are numbered consecutively with integer 1, 2, .
. ., n, such that i < j for any two events i and j connected by an activity,
which starts at i and finishes at j.
Forward Pass Method (For Earliest Event Time)

In this method, calculations begin from the initial event 1, proceed

through the events in an increasing order of event numbers and end at
the final event, say N. At each event, its earliest occurrence time (E)
and earliest start and finish time for each activity that begins at that
event is calculated. When calculations end at the final event N, its
earliest occurrence time gives the earliest possible completion time of
the project. The method may be summarized as follows:
1. Set the earliest occurrence time of initial event 1 to zero. That is,
𝐸1 = 0 , for i = 1.
2. Calculate the earliest start time for each activity that begins at event i (=
1). This is equal to the earliest occurrence time of event, i (tail event). That is:
𝐸𝑆𝑖𝑗 = 𝐸𝑖 , for all activities (i, j) starting at event I
3. Calculate the earliest finish time of each activity that begins at event i. This
is equal to the earliest start time of the activity plus the duration of the
activity. That is:
𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑗 = 𝐸𝑆𝑖𝑗 + 𝑡𝑖𝑗 = 𝐸𝑖𝑗 + 𝑡𝑖𝑗 , for all activities (i, j) beginning at event i.
4. Proceed to next event j (j>i)
5. Calculate the earliest occurrence time for the event j. This is the
maximum of the earliest finish times of all activities ending into that
event, that is,
𝐸𝑗 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑗 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝐸𝑖 + 𝑡𝑖𝑗 , for all immediate predecessor
activities.
Backward Pass Method (For Latest Allowable Event
Time)

In this method, calculations begin from the final event N. Proceed

through the events in the decreasing order of event numbers and end
at the initial event 1. At each event, latest occurrence time (L) and
latest finish and start time for each activity that is terminating at that
event is calculated. The procedure continues till the initial event. The
method may be summarized as follows:
1. Set the latest occurrence time of last event, N equal to its earliest
occurrence time (known from forward pass method).
That is, 𝐿𝑁 = 𝐸𝑁 , j = N.
2. Calculate the latest finish time of each activity which ends at event j.
This is equal to latest occurrence time of final event. That is:
𝐿𝑆𝑖𝑗 = 𝐿𝑖 , for all activities (i, j) ending at event j.
3. Calculate the latest start times of all activities ending at j. This is obtained
by subtracting the duration of the activity from the latest finish time of the
activity.
That is: 𝐿𝐹𝑖𝑗 = 𝐿𝑗
And 𝐿𝑆𝑖𝑗 = 𝐿𝐹𝑖𝑗 − 𝑡𝑖𝑗 = 𝐿𝑗 − 𝑡𝑖𝑗 , for all activity (i, j) ending at event j.
4. Proceed backward to the event in the sequence, that decreases j by 1
5. Calculate the latest occurrence time of event i (i < j). This is the minimum
of the latest start times of all activities from the event. That is:
𝐿𝑖 = 𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝐿𝑆𝑖𝑗 = 𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝐿𝑗 − 𝑡𝑖𝑗 , for all immediate successor activities
The float (slack) or free time is the length of time in which a non-
critical activity and/or an event can be delayed or extended without
delaying the total project completion time.
𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑡 = 𝐿𝑖 − 𝐸𝑖
It is a measure of how long an event can be delayed without increasing
the project completion time.
(a) If L = E for certain events, then such events are called critical events.
(b) If L ≠ E for certain events, then the float (slack) on these events can
be negative (L < E) or positive (L > E).
Slack of an Activity
It is the amount of activity time that can increased or delayed without
delaying project completion time. This float is calculated as the
difference between the latest finish time and the earliest finish time for
the activity. There are three types of floats for each non-critical activity
in a project.
Example
An established company has decided to add a new product to its line. It will buy
the product from a manufacturing concern, package it, and sell it to a number of
distributors that have been selected on a geographical basis. Market research has
already indicated the volume expected and the size of sales force required. The
steps shown in the following table are to be planned.
Activity Description Predecessor Duration
(Days)
A Organize sales office - 6
B Hire salesman A 4
C Train salesman B 7
D Select advertising agency A 2
E Plan advertising campaign D 4
F Conduct advertising campaign E 10
G Design package - 2
H Setup packaging facilities G 10
I Package initial stocks J,H 6
J Order stock from manufacturer - 13
K Select distributers A 9
L Sell to distributers C,K 3
M Ship stocks to distributers I,L 5
 4

I(6)
J(13)
H(10)
L(3)
6
M(5)
G(2) 9 10
1 3
K(9)
C(7)
A(6)
B(4) 5 F(10)
2
D(2)
E(4)
7 8
Forward pass
𝐸1 = 0
𝐸2 = 𝐸1 + 𝑡12 = 0 + 6 = 6
𝐸3 = 𝐸1 + 𝑡13 = 0 + 2 = 2
𝐸4 = max 𝐸𝑖 + 𝑡𝑖4 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝐸1 + 𝑡14 , 𝐸3 + 𝑡34 = max 0 + 13,2 + 10 =
𝐸5 = 𝐸2 + 𝑡25 = 6 + 4 = 10
𝐸6 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝐸2 + 𝑡26 , 𝐸5 + 𝑡56 = max 6 + 9,10 + 7 = 17
E7 = E2 + t27 = 6 + 2 = 8
E8 = E7 + t78 = 8 + 4 = 12
E9 = Max {Ei + ti9} = Max {E4 + t49; E6 + t69}=Max {13 + 6; 17 + 3} = 20
E10 = Max {Ei + ti10}= Max {E8 + t8,10 ; E9 + t9,10}== Max {12 + 10; 20 + 5} = 25
Backward Pass Method
L10 = E10 = 25
L9 = L10 – t9,10 = 25 – 51 = 20
L8 = L10 – t8,10 = 25 – 10 = 15
L7 = L80 – t7,80 = 15 – 41 = 11
L6 = L9 – t6,9 = 20 – 3 = 17
L5 = L6 – t5,6 = 17 – 71 = 10
L4 = L9 – t4,9 = 20 – 6 = 14
L3 = L4 – t3,4 = 14 – 10 = 4
L2 = Min {Lj – t2,j}
= Min { L5 – t2,5; L6 – t2, 6; L7 – t2,7}
= Min {10 – 4; 17 – 9; 11 – 2} = 6
L1 = Min {Lj – t1,j} =Min {L2 – t1,2; L3 – t1,3; L4 – t1,4}
= Min {6 – 6; 4 – 2; 14 – 13} = 0
Critical Path
1  2 5 6 910
Actvity duration Earliest time Latest time float
Start (E i) Finish Start Finish Total Free
E I + t ij L j-t ij Lj (L j-t ij)-E i (E j-E i)-t ij
1-3 2 0 2 4 2 0
1-4 13 0 13 14 1 0
2-6 9 6 15 17 2 2
2-7 2 6 8 11 3 0
3-4 10 2 12 14 2 1
4-9 6 13 19 20 1 1
7-8 4 8 12 15 3 0
8-10 10 12 22 25 3 3
• Example 13.5 An insurance company has decided to modernize and
refit one of its branch offices. Some of the existing office equipments
will be disposed of but the remaining will be returned to the branch
after the completion of the renovation work. Tenders are invited from
a number of selected contractors. The contractors would be
responsible for all the activities in connection with the renovation
work excepting the prior removal of the old equipment and its
subsequent replacement. The major elements of the project have
been identified, as follows, along with their durations and
immediately preceding elements.
Activity Description predecessor Duration
weeks
A Design new premises - 14
B Obtain tenders from contractors A 4
C Select contractor B 2
D Arrange details with the selected contractor C 1
E Decide which equipment to be used A 2
F Arrange storage for equipment E 3
G Arrange disposal of the other equipment E 2
H Order new equipment E 4
I Take delivery of new equipment H,L 3
J Renovations take place K 12
K Remove old equipment for disposal D,F,G 4
L Cleaning after contractor has finished J 2
M Return old equipment. H,L 2
(a) Draw the network diagram showing the interrelations between the
various activities of the project.
(b) Calculate the minimum time that the renovation can take from the
design stage.
(c) Calculate the ‘independent float’ that is associated with the non-
critical activities in the network diagram
 C(2) 8
3 4
D(1)

B(4) 6 7 9
11

1 A(14) E(2)
2 5
10 12
Example: Shirley has listed a number of activities that must be completed before a training program of this nature can be cond
The activities, immediate predecessors, and times appear in the accompanying table. Obtain critical path and duration of the
project

Activity Immediate Predecessor Time (days)

A – 2
B – 5
C – 1
D B 10
E A,D 3
F C 6
G E,F 8
 3

B-5 D-10

A-2 E-3 G-8

1 2 5 6

C-1
F-6

4
• A project has the following characteristics
Activity time
1-2 2
1-4 2
1-7 1
2-3 4
3-6 1
4-5 5
4-8 8
5-6 4
6-9 3
7-8 3
8-9 5
 7
2
1

2 8 5
1 4 8 9
5
2
5
4 3
2
4
1
3 6
Consider the following network. Numbers along various activities
represent the normal time tij .For this we are interested to find out the
time it will take to complete the project.
Obtain the critical path.
 Network diagram

4 5
2 2
2

1 2 5 4 3
3 6 4
8 9 10
2
8 0 5
4 4
7
PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY TIMES
PERT was developed to handle projects where the time duration for
each activity is not known with certainty
but is a random variable that is characterized by β (beta)-distribution.
To estimate the parameters: mean and
variance, of the β-distribution three time estimates for each activity are
required to calculate its expected
completion time. The three-time estimates that are required are as
under.
Project scheduling with uncertain activity
times
1. Optimistic time (t0)- The shortest activity time in which an activity
can be performed if everything goes well.
2. Pessimistic time (tp) – The longest possible time required to perform
an activity under extremely bad conditions
3. Most likely time (tm )- the time that occur most often.
The β-distribution is not necessarily symmetric, the degree of skewness
depends on the location of tm to to and tp. The range of optimistic
time (to) and pessimistic time (tp) is assumed to enclose every possible
duration of the activity. The most likely completion time (tm) for an
activity may not be equal to the midpoint (to + tp)/2 and may occur to
its left or to its right as shown in following diagram
In Beta-distribution the midpoint (to + tp)/2 is given half weightage
than that of most likely point (tm). Thus, the expected or mean (te or μ)
time of an activity, that is also the weighted average of three time
estimates, is computed as the arithmetic mean of (to + tp)/2 and 2 tm.
That is:
t0 tp
tm tm
If duration of activities associated with the project is uncertain, then
variance describes the dispersion (variation) in the activity time values.
The calculations are based on the concept of normal distribution where
99 per cent of the area under normal curve falls within ±3𝜎 from the
mean or fall within the range approximately 6 standard deviation in
length. Therefore, the interval (to, tp) or range (tp – to) is assumed to
enclose about 6 standard deviations of a symmetric distribution. Thus,
if σi is the standard deviation
• Expected time of an activity
𝑡0 +4𝑡𝑚 +𝑡𝑝
•𝑡𝑒 =
6
• Variance of an activity
(𝑡 −𝑡 ) 2
2 𝑝 0
•𝜎 =
6
Estimation of project completion time
Due to variation in the activity completion time, there are chances of
variation in the scheduled completion time of the project. Thus,
decision-maker needs to understand the probability of actually meeting
the scheduled time. The probability distribution of times for
completing an event can be approximated by the normal distribution
using statement of central limit theorem. Thus, the probability of
completing the project on the schedule (or desired) time, Ts is given by:
𝑡𝑠 −𝑡𝑒
P𝑍=
𝜎
• where, Te = expected completion time of the project
• Z = number of standard deviations, the scheduled completion time is
away from the expected (mean) time.
• 𝜎𝑖2 = 𝜎12 + 𝜎22 + ⋯ + 𝜎𝑛2
• Hence, revised scheduled completion time of the project can be
calculated as: Ts = Z σi + Te , where value of Z corresponds to the
probability of project completion time. The computation of Ts enables
a decision maker to make certain commitments, knowing the degree
of risk. The expected completion time (Te) of the project is obtained
by adding the expected time of each critical activity.
Example The following network diagram represents activities
associated with a project:
Activit A B C D E F G H I
y
to 5 18 26 16 15 6 7 7 3
tp 10 22 40 20 25 12 12 9 5
tm 8 20 33 18 20 9 10 8 4
Determine the following:
(a) Expected completion time and variance of each activity
(b) The earliest and latest expected completion times of each event.
(c) The critical path.
(d) The probability of expected completion time of the project if the
original scheduled time of completing
the project is 41.5 weeks.
(e) The duration of the project that will have 95 per cent chance of
being completed
 F 6

3 I

B E

D H 7
A
1 2 5

G
C

4
Activity to tp tm te σ2

1-2 5 10 8 7.8 0.696

1-3 18 22 20 20 0.444
1-4 26 40 33 33 5.429
2-5 16 20 18 18 0.443
2-6 15 25 20 20 2.780
3-6 6 12 9 9 1.000
4-7 7 12 10 9.8 0.694
5-7 7 9 8 8 0.111
6-7 3 5 4 4 0.111
• Forward Pass Method
E1 = 0
E2 = E1 + t1,2 = 0 + 7.8 = 7.8
E3 = E1 + t1,3 = 0 + 20 = 20
E4 = E1 + t1,4 = 0 + 33 = 33
E5 = E2 + t2,5 = 7.8 + 18 = 25.8
E6 = Max {Ei + ti, 6} = Max {E2 + t2, 6 ; E3 + t3, 6} = Max {7.8 + 20; 20 + 9} = 29
E7 = Max {Ei + ti,7} = Max {E4 + t4,7 ; E5 + t5, 7 ; E6 + t6,7}
= Max {33 + 9.8 ; 25.8 + 8; 29 + 4} = 42.8
• Backward Pass Method
• L7 = E7 = 42.8
• L6 = L7 – t6, 7 = 42.8 – 4 = 38.8
• L5 = L7 – t5,7 = 42.8 – 8 = 34.8
• L4 = L7 – t4,7 = 42.8 – 9.8 = 33
• L3 = L6 – t3,6 = 38.8 – 9 = 29.8
• L2 = Min {Lj – t2,j}
• L2 = Min {L5 – t2,5 ; L6 – t2,6 }
• = Min {34.8 – 18 ; 38.8 – 20} = 16.8
L1 = Min {Lj – t1j}
= Min {L2 – t1,2; L3 – t1,3 ; L4 – t1,4}
= Min {16.8 – 7.8 ; 29.8 – 20 ; 33 – 33}
=0
 F 6
I
3
B E

H 7
A D D5
1 2
G
C