WALLAGA UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
School of Civil Engineering And Water Resource
Civil Engineering Department

Transportation Planning
and Modeling (CEng 2191)

CHAPTER-3
Transportation Modeling

Part-1: Introduction to
Travel Demand Forecasting

For 2nd Year Civil Engineering Students

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Introduction
Models and their Role
▪ Models are a simplified representation of a part of reality.
▪ They are problem and viewpoint specific.
▪ Therefore, a models are only realistic from a particular
perspective or point of view.
▪ During their formulation, calibration and use, planners can also
learn much about the behavior and internal workings of the
system under scrutiny.
▪ Their function is:
➢ to give insight into complex interrelationships in the real world and
➢ to enable statements about what (most probably) will happen if
changes occur or put in that (part of) reality.
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 Introduction
Models in transportation
▪ Transport model are simplified mathematical representation of
a small part of the real world
➢ aiming at describing and explaining travel behavior and visualizing
the amount and patterns of transport.
➢ Study of the behavior of individuals in making decisions regarding the
provision and use of transport.
▪ Are abstract mathematical models

𝒀 = 𝒇 𝒂, 𝑿
Dependent Independent
variable variables
Related
parameters

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 Introduction
Purposes of mathematical models
➢ To gain a more structured analysis of the complex transport system
➢ To find out which factors play an important role, and how sensitive
the transport system is to changes in the different factors
➢ To analyze the effect of alternative traffic projects and contribute
towards their economic appraisal
➢ To help transport planners make reliable predictions and forecasts of
future changes in usage of traffic facilities for sake of facility design,
control and operation.
➢ To enable quantified calculations of expected effects in the
transportation system when changes (policy measures or interventions)
are put in the system
➢ To find design parameters that lead to an optimal performance of the
modeled system
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 Travel Demand Forecasting
▪ Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or
vehicles per unit time that can be expected to travel on a given
segment of a transportation system under a set of given land
use, socioeconomic and environmental conditions.
▪ Travel demand forecasts are used to establish the vehicular
volume on future or modified transportation system alternatives.
▪ The three factors that influence travel demand are:
1) the location and intensity of land use;
2) the socioeconomic characteristics of people living in the area; and
3) the extent, cost, and quality of available transportation services.
▪ These factors are incorporated in most travel forecasting
procedures.

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 Travel Demand Forecasting
TDF Approaches
▪ To accomplish the objectives and tasks of the urban
transportation planning process, the transportation forecasting
process is carried out to analyze the performance of various
alternatives.
▪ There are four basic elements and related tasks in the
forecasting process :
1) data collection (or inventories)
2) analysis of existing conditions and calibration of forecasting
techniques
3) forecast of future travel demand, and
4) analysis of the results

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 Forecasting Travel Demand
Data Requirements
▪ The data requirement for transport model is very high, and can be
broadly categorized into four:
1) Socio-economic data: the socio-economic characteristics of the study
area, such as income, vehicle ownership, family size, etc.
2) Travel surveys: Origin-destination travel survey data at households and
traffic data from cordon lines:
✓ such as the number of trips made by each member of the household, the
direction of travel, destination, the cost of the travel the traffic flow,
speed and travel time measurements.
3) Land use inventory: This includes data on the housing density at
residential zones, establishments at commercial and industrial zones.
4) Network data: Transport network data includes road network, traffic
signals, junctions, as well as data on public and private transport networks.

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 Forecasting Travel Demand
Data Requirements
▪ The data required for modeling is primarily collected through
surveys;
➢ Household survey
➢ External cordon and Intercept surveys
➢ Travel Diary
➢ O-D survey
➢ Questionnaire
➢ In-house and Roadside Interviews
▪ There are many methods of the administration of Travel survey
and some of them are Telephonic, Mail back and Face-to-face.

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 Forecasting Travel Demand
Defining the Study Area
▪ Prior to collecting and summarizing the data, it is usually necessary
to delineate the study area boundaries and to subdivide the study
area into Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ).
▪ The imaginary line representing the boundary of the study area is
termed as the “external cordon‟.
▪ To facilitate the data collection, the defined study area is sub-
divided into smaller areas called zones or Transportation Analysis
Zones (TAZ).
▪ Zones are modeled as if all their attributes and properties were
concentrated in a single point called the zone-centroid.
▪ The centroids are connected to the nearest road junction or rail
station by centroid connectors.
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 Forecasting Travel Demand
Defining the Study Area
▪ Some guidelines for selection of TAZs:
1) Zones should have homogeneous socioeconomic characteristics.
2) Zones should match other administrative divisions, particularly
census zones.
3) Political and historical boundaries should be utilized where possible.
4) Natural or physical barriers such as canals, rives etc. can form
convenient zone boundaries.
5) Zones should not be created within other zones.
6) Intrazonal trips should be minimized.

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Forecasting Travel Demand
➢ Kebele based
➢ Large kebeles
subdivided
= 131 int. + 6 ext.

Ideal Zones of Addis Ababa

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The Four Step Model

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