Terminal Objectives

The participant will be able to :

▪ Realize the need for decision-making from many perspectives and

will be able to factor in control discussion with each decision.
Specific Objectives
The participant will be able to :
▪ Apply the steps in the decision-making process.
▪ Acknowledge barriers that may prevent people to define problems correctly.
▪ Determine the 4 styles of Decision Making
▪ Identify why people can not reach agreement through “Abilene Paradox” movie
and how to overcome it.
▪ Use some techniques for making managerial decisions like Six thinking hats
▪ Use at least 2 methods of decision making in groups
 Decision Taking
Or
Decision Making??
Why we need to take a Decision ?

Problem Improvement
Problem Definitions

• Some difficulty that we can’t understand .

• A state of disorder .
Types of Problems

Opportunity Crisis Routine

Decision Levels
Top Management

Middle Management

First-line Management
Managerial Decisions Types

Programmed Non-Programmed

Problem - Repetitive - Complex

- Routine - Long Time

Procedure - Rules Creative

- Policies Problem solving
 Problem Solving
It is
Tool Skill Process
 • The nature of the problem.
To Make a Decision you
• The time available.
Need to know: • The cost of individual strategies.
Decision making process

Methods of Decision Making

• Experience .
• Watching .
• Trial & Errors.
• The scientific method of decision making.
 Problem Solving process

Determining
Workable Evaluate Follow Up
Solutions Solutions

1 2 3 4 5 6

Recognize and Gather Choose a

analyze the Data solution and
problem Take Action
Problem Solving process

Step 1
Recognize and analyze the problem

▪ Working on the right problem .

▪ Analyze the cause and symptoms for

the problem .
 The
Cause-and-Effect
Analysis
 The Cause-and-Effect Analysis

Big problem

cause cause cause

root
cause cause cause cause

root root root root

cause cause cause cause
The Most common cause and
effect Method is…
The Fishbone Method
 The Fishbone Method

• 4M: 4M 5M 6M
1. Man
2. Material
3. Machine
4. Method
• 5M:
5. Measure
• 6M:
6. Mother Nature (Environment)
 The Fishbone Method

1. Man (People):
4M 5M 6M
Anyone involved with the process
Ex.:
Poor supervision
Lack of concentration
Need Training
 The Fishbone Method

4M 5M 6M
2. Material:
Raw materials used to produce the final product Measurements:
Data generated from the process that is used to evaluate its quality
Ex.:
• System issue
• Defective from vendor
 The Fishbone Method

4M 5M 6M
3. Machine:
Any equipment, computer etc. required to accomplish the job.
Ex.:
• Tooling Problem
• Old Machine
 The Fishbone Method

4M 5M 6M
4. Method:
How the process is performed and the specific requirements for
doing it, such as policies, procedures, rules, regulations and laws
Ex.:
• No clear Process
• The process is wrong or outdated
• The process is too complicated
 The Fishbone Method

4M 5M 6M
5. Measure:
How is the process measured and monitored to evaluate quality?
Ex.:
• Quality Score
• Target
• KPI
 The Fishbone Method

4M 5M 6M
6. Mother Nature (Environment):
This includes anything outside the company’s control that may impact
on results.
Ex.:
THE conditions, such as location, time, temperature, and culture
in which the process operates.
The Fishbone Method
 The Fishbone Method
• To fix these causes for each cause ask whether you know:

1. How to prevent it if yes mark it with a “C” that’s Controllable.

Preventable? Yes = Controllable

1. If you don't know yes but can find out mark it with an X for
Experimental
Preventable? Maybe = Experimental

1. If you can not prevent it or detect it mark it with an N for noise

No Preventable
No Detectable = Noise
 The Fishbone Method

The C's need new standard work procedures

The X's need some trial and error

The N's need some protection

 Activity

Draw Your
Fish
Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition
1) Previous Learning

2) Ambiguity

3) Defining the problem by solution.

4) Identifying symptoms as problems.

5) Artificial boundaries

6) Perceptual problems

7) Solving the wrong problem

Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition

Previous learning
• Learning influences what we see and hear .
• “ We have always done it that way” is one of the
biggest blocks to effective analysis.
• The unwillingness or inability to let go of old habits
can be a major stumbling block to seeing problems.
Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition
Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition

Ambiguity

• Looking at the same information, two people can see different things.
• Not just enough to get data, they must describe the problem
meaningfully.
Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition

Ambiguity
Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition

Defining the problem by solution

• Jumping to conclusion .
Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition

Identifying symptoms as problem

Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition

Artificial boundaries

Test your assumptions about the

boundaries of the problem
Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition

Perceptual problems
• Not recognising problems .
• Mistaken cause and effect .
Problem Solving process
Blocks to problem definition

Solving the wrong problem

Problem Solving process
Step 2
Determining Workable Solutions

▪ What are the alternatives

▪ Brainstorming

▪ List all the possible solution

Decision making process
Step 3
Gather Data

▪ There are data for all the stages .

▪ Obtain data by asking, observing, &
studying .
▪ Be specific about who , what, when &
how .
Problem Solving process
Step 4
Evaluate Solutions

The alternatives-outcomes relationship is based on three possible

conditions:
▪ Certainty
▪ Risks
▪ Uncertainty
Problem Solving process
Step 5
Choose a Solution and Take Action
Problem Solving process
Step 7
Follow Up
Decision
Making Styles
Assessment
 Decision Making Styles
High
Tolerance for Ambiguity
Analytical Conceptual

Directive Behavioral

Low
Rational Intuitive
Way of Thinking
Decision Making Styles

Directive Style ▪ People who prefer simple, clear-cut solutions to problems

▪ Make decisions quickly
Analytical Style
▪ May consider only one or two alternatives
Conceptual Style
▪ Efficient and rational
Behavioral Style ▪ Prefer rules or procedures
Decision Making Styles

▪ Complex solutions based on as much data as they can

Directive Style
gather
Analytical Style
▪ Carefully consider alternatives
Conceptual Style ▪ Base decision on objective, rational data

Behavioral Style ▪ Search for best possible decision based on information

available
Decision Making Styles

Directive Style ▪ More socially oriented

▪ Consider others about the problem and possible solutions
Analytical Style
▪ Consider many broad alternatives and information
Conceptual Style ▪ Rely on information from people and systems

Behavioral Style ▪ Solve problems creatively

Decision Making Styles

▪ Deep concern for others

Directive Style ▪ Talk to people one-on-one
▪ Understand individual feelings about the problem and
Analytical Style
possible effects.
Conceptual Style
▪ Concerned with the personal development of others
Behavioral Style ▪ Decisions to help others achieve their goals
‫صل ال ‪ 9‬نقاط بأربعة خطوط مستقيمة متصلة دون رفع القلم‬
Group Decision-Making
 Methods of Group Decision Making

Decision by Authority
Majority Control
without Discussion
Decision by Authority
Minority Control
with Discussion

Expert Member Consensus

Methods of Group Decision Making
1
Decision by authority WITHOUT discussion
 Methods of Group Decision Making
1 Decision by authority WITHOUT discussion

Advantages Disadvantages

• Useful for simple routine • One person is not a good

decision. resources for every decision.
• When group members expect • Advantages of group interaction
the designated leader to make are lost.
decision. • Resources of other members are
• Used when team members lack not used.
skills and information
Methods of Group Decision Making
2
Decision by authority AFTER
WITH discussion
discussion
Methods of Group Decision Making
2 Decision by authority WITH discussion

Advantages Disadvantages

• Does not resolve the controversies

• Uses the resources of group and conflicts among group
members. members.
• Gain benefits of group discussion. • Create a kind of nepotism.
Methods of Group Decision Making
3 Decision by Expert Members
Methods of Group Decision Making
3 Decision by Expert Members

Advantages Disadvantages

• It is difficult to determine who the

expert is.
• Useful when the expertise of one
• Advantages of group interaction
person so far superior to that of
all other group members. are lost.
• Resources of other members are
not used.
Methods of Group Decision Making

4 Decision by Majority Control

Methods of Group Decision Making
4 Decision by Majority Control

Advantages Disadvantages

• Can be used when sufficient time • Usually leaves an alienated

is lacking for decision by minority which damages future
consensus. group effectiveness.
• When complete member • Advantages of group interaction
commitment is not necessary of are lost.
implementing decision .
Methods of Group Decision Making
5 Decision by Minority
Methods of Group Decision Making
5 Decision by Minority

Advantages Disadvantages

• When everyone cannot meet to • Does not utilize the resources of

make a decision. many group members.
• When the group is under time • Unresolved conflict may damage
pressure. future group effectiveness.
• When complete member
commitment is not necessary.
Methods of Group Decision Making
6 Decision by Consensus
Methods of Group Decision Making
6 Decision by Consensus

Advantages Disadvantages

• Produces an innovative, creative, • Takes a great deal of time and

and high-quality decision. energy.
• Not useful in emergency situation.
• Elicits commitment by all
members to implement decision .
• Uses resources of all members
 Decision
Making
Techniques
Decision Making Techniques

Pros & Cons

Six Thinking
Hats
1- Simple “Pros & Cons” method
1- Simple “Pros & Cons” method
• This method can be used to evaluate a decision to be taken
or not. “Pros” means the advantages, while “Cons” means
the disadvantages.
• Giving a score from 1 to 5 to weight each Pro & Con
• Then add the scores for Pros & scores for Cons
• Compare which one will be greater
• If the “Pros” score, then take the decision…otherwise don’t
Your scores are just estimation from your point of view and
depend on your personal preferences
1- Simple “Pros & Cons” method
Example: I want to buy a new car instead of the old one
Pros Score Cons Score
Better Comfort 3 Cost outlay will mean making sacrifice 5

Lower Fuel Cost 3 Higher Insurance 3

Lower Servicing Cost 4 Disposal of old car 2
Better reliability 3 Time & hassle 2
Better for family use 5 Big Decision scare me 4
Load off my mind 2
Total 20 Total 16
 Lateral thinking Parallel thinking

2 1 1

❑ Conflicts ❑ Creative solutions

❑ Bad communications ❑ Good communications
Introduction :-

Why hats ?

Why 6 ?

Why colors ?
What are the 6 colors of Hats?
The Advantages
• Helps you look at important decisions from several different
perspectives.
• Reduce the resistance to change and prepared by essential
contingency plans.
• It helps you understand the full complexity of a decision.
• It spots issues and opportunities which you might not
notice.
 Suggestion for good decision making

1. Have your goals clearly in mind or in written form before you

proceed to formulate your options.
2. Establish your priorities so that every decision contributes
toward goal achievement
3. Be more creative as possible .Look for group of ideas.
4. Decision-making is simply a mental exercise which must be
transferred into action.
5. Each decision has the potential of causing a chain of reactions.
6. Don’t be quick to reopen decisions already made.
7. Use a simulation exercise or a trial run to determine
correctness.