Phase 4 Document: Model Development and

Evaluation Metrics

Introduction

Phase 4 of our project marks the crucial stage of model development and
evaluation. Here, we delve into building recommendation models using the
prepared dataset and selecting appropriate evaluation metrics to assess their
performance. This phase is pivotal in ensuring that our personalized content
discovery engine delivers accurate and relevant recommendations to users.

Objectives :
Model Development

1. Predictive Accuracy: Develop a model that can accurately predict equipment

failures or maintenance needs.

2. Proactive Maintenance: Enable proactive maintenance scheduling to reduce

unplanned downtime and maintenance costs.

3. Optimized Maintenance: Optimize maintenance schedules and resource allocation

to minimize maintenance costs and maximize equipment availability.

4.Assess Model Performance: Evaluate the accuracy, precision, and effectiveness of

predictive maintenance models.

5.Identify Improvement Areas: Identify areas where the model can be improved or
optimized.

6.Compare Models*: Compare the performance of different models or approaches to

select the best one.
Evaluation Metrics

1.Ensure Predictive Accuracy:

• Objective: Use metrics to assess the accuracy of the model's predictions

regarding equipment failures.

• Metrics: Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1 Score, and AUC-ROC.

2.Minimize Prediction Errors:

• Objective: Evaluate the model’s performance in terms of prediction

errors to improve reliability.

• Metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

3.Balance Precision and Recall:

• Objective: Ensure a balanced performance between correctly predicting

failures (recall) and avoiding false alarms (precision).

• Metrics: F1 Score, Precision-Recall Curve.

4.Assess Model Robustness:

• Objective: Validate the model's ability to generalize to new, unseen

data and maintain performance over time.

• Metrics: Cross-validation scores, Confusion Matrix analysis.

5.Evaluate Operational Impact:

• Objective: Measure the real-world impact of the model on maintenance

operations and costs.

• Metrics: Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF), Maintenance Efficiency,

Uptime/Downtime Ratio, Cost-Benefit Analysis.

6.Continuous Monitoring and Adaptability:

• Objective: Continuously track model performance and adapt to new

data to ensure ongoing accuracy and relevance.

• Metrics: Real-time performance monitoring, Model retraining frequen

Model Selection

Maximize Predictive Accuracy:

Objective: Choose a model that provides the highest accuracy in predicting

equipment failures.

Outcome: Reduces the likelihood of missed failures (false negatives) and false alarms
(false positives).

Optimize Computational Efficiency:

Objective: Select a model that can process data and make predictions quickly and
efficiently.

Outcome: Ensures real-time or near-real-time maintenance decision-making.

Handle Data Complexity and Volume:

Objective: Ensure the chosen model can manage large volumes of data and complex
patterns within the data.

Outcome: Maintains performance and scalability as data grows and becomes more
complex.

Robustness and Generalization:

Objective: Select a model that generalizes well to new, unseen data and different
operational conditions.

Outcome: Ensures the model remains reliable and effective across various scenarios
and equipment types.

Ease of Implementation and Integration:

Objective: Choose a model that can be easily integrated with existing maintenance
management systems and workflows.
Outcome: Facilitates smooth deployment and minimal disruption to current
operations.

Scalability:

Objective: Ensure the model can scale to accommodate growing data inputs and
increasing complexity of maintenance tasks.

Outcome: Supports long-term growth and adaptation of the maintenance program.

Interpretability and Transparency:

Objective: Select a model that offers interpretable results, making it easier for
maintenance teams to understand and trust the predictions.

Outcome: Enhances user confidence and facilitates actionable insights.

Adaptability and Continuous Learning:

Objective: Choose a model that can adapt and learn from new data over time.

Outcome: Ensures the model remains accurate and relevant as operating conditions
and equipment behavior evolve.

Code:
import pandas as pd

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier

from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, classification_report

# Load the predictive maintenance

dataset/content/predictive_maintenance_dataset.csv

dataset = pd.read_csv("/content/predictive_maintenance_dataset.csv")

# Drop non-numeric columns and encode categorical variables

X = dataset.drop(columns=["metric3"]) # Features

X = pd.get_dummies(X) # One-hot encoding for categorical variables

# Split the dataset into features (X) and labels (y)

y = dataset["metric3"] # Labels

# Split dataset into training and testing sets

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

# Initialize Random Forest classifier

rf_classifier = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)

# Train the Random Forest classifier

rf_classifier.fit(X_train, y_train)

# Model Evaluation

# Predict on the test set

y_pred = rf_classifier.predict(X_test)

# Calculate accuracy

accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred)

print("Accuracy:", accuracy)

# Generate classification report

print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred))

import pandas as pd

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier

from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, precision_score, recall_score, f1_score,
classification_report

# Calculate accuracy metrics

accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred)

precision = precision_score(y_test, y_pred, average='weighted')

recall = recall_score(y_test, y_pred, average='weighted')

f1 = f1_score(y_test, y_pred, average='weighted')

print("Accuracy:", accuracy)

print("Precision:", precision)

print("Recall:", recall)

print("F1 Score:", f1)

# Generate classification report

print("\nClassification Report:")

print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred))

import pandas as pd

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier

from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score

from sklearn.feature_selection import SelectFromModel

# Load the predictive maintenance

dataset/content/predictive_maintenance_dataset.csv

dataset = pd.read_csv("/content/predictive_maintenance_dataset.csv")

# Drop non-numeric columns and encode categorical variables

X = dataset.drop(columns=["metric3"]) # Features
X = pd.get_dummies(X) # One-hot encoding for categorical variables

# Split the dataset into features (X) and labels (y)

y = dataset["metric3"] # Labels

# Split dataset into training and testing sets

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

# Initialize Random Forest classifier

rf_classifier = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)

# Train the Random Forest classifier

rf_classifier.fit(X_train, y_train)

# Calculate feature importance

feature_importance = rf_classifier.feature_importances_

# Rank features by importance

sorted_indices = feature_importance.argsort()[::-1]

# Print feature rankings

print("Feature Rankings:")

for i, idx in enumerate(sorted_indices):

print(f"{i+1}. {X.columns[idx]}: {feature_importance[idx]}")

Output:
Conclusion

Phase 4 marks the culmination of model development and evaluation for our
predictive maintenance. By leveraging advanced recommendation algorithms and
comprehensive evaluation metrics, we aim to build a robust and effective system for
recommending personalized content to users. The insights gained from this phase
will guide us in selecting the optimal model for deployment in real-world scenarios.