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Lecture Three

The UK population reached an estimated 68.3 million in mid-2023, driven primarily by migration, with projections to hit 70 million by 2026. The population is aging, with those over 65 expected to rise from 19% in 2022 to 27% by 2072, while the ethnic composition is shifting, with a decline in White British individuals from 80.5% to 74.4% over the last decade. Natural population change is expected to turn negative by the mid-2030s, making migration the sole contributor to population growth thereafter.

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12 views4 pages

Lecture Three

The UK population reached an estimated 68.3 million in mid-2023, driven primarily by migration, with projections to hit 70 million by 2026. The population is aging, with those over 65 expected to rise from 19% in 2022 to 27% by 2072, while the ethnic composition is shifting, with a decline in White British individuals from 80.5% to 74.4% over the last decade. Natural population change is expected to turn negative by the mid-2030s, making migration the sole contributor to population growth thereafter.

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laradh335
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ISSHT- Department of English Academic Year 2024-2025

LECTURE THREE
UK Population & Demographic Trends

Demography is the statistical study of human populations with reference to:

 Size and density


 Geographic distribution
 Composition
 Vital statistics (births, deaths, marriages, etc.)
 Components and consequences of population change

A demographic trend can be defined as a long-range demographic change observed historically


in populations around the world.

1- UK Demographic trends
 The UK population at mid-year 2023 was estimated to be 68.3 million surpassing
France’s 68.2 million for the first time on record, according to the Office for National
Statistics (ONS).
 According to the ONS’s official population projections, it will reach 70 million by
2026.
 The driver of the growth over the period was migration, with natural change – the
difference between births and deaths – projected to be about zero, according to the ONS.

a. An ageing population

 Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy are growing at a similar rate, suggesting
that the extra years of life will not necessarily be years of ill health.
 The combination of extending life expectancy and the ageing of those born in the baby
boom (just after the Second World War) means that the population aged over 65 is
growing at a much faster rate than those under 65.
 Age distributions as shown in chart 1:
 In 2022, 19% of the UK population were aged 65 or over.
 By contrast, they made up only 13% of the population, 50 years ago in 1972.
 According to the ONS’s population projections, by 2072 this could rise to 27%
of the population.

1
Sources: ONS, Estimates of the population for England and Wales, UK population estimates 1838 to
2022 edition, Table 3; ONS, Estimates of the population for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland, and
Northern Ireland, Mid-2022 edition, Table MYE2; ONS, Principal projection – UK population in age
groups, 2021-based interim edition

b. A growing population

- The UK’s population has been growing for much of its recent history.
- In 1898, the population was around 40 million; it had reached 50 million by 1948 and
60 million by 2005.
- On Census Day, 21 March 2021, the size of the usual resident population in England
and Wales was 59,597,542, an increase by more than 3.5 million (6.3%) since the last
census in 2011, when it was 56,075,912.
- The ONS expects net migration1 to add people to the population each year for the
foreseeable future, as shown in Chart 2.
- In the year ending June 2024, net migration was 680,000, far above pre-Brexit levels of
around 250,000.
- The ONS’s current projections, which are based on past migration patterns and current
policy, show migration falling but continuing to add around 500,000 to 600,000 people
to the population each year until 2026. This is high by historical standards:
 Throughout the 2000s and 2010s, net migration added around 200,000 people
to the population each year.
 Before this, annual net migration was less than 100,000 and frequently
negative (more people leaving than arriving).
- From 2028 onwards, the ONS expects net migration to settle below its present level.

1
Net migration is the number of people migrating to the UK minus the number emigrating from it.
2
- The ONS expects natural change to turn negative in the mid-2030s, with the number
of deaths exceeding the number of births in 2034-35. At this point, only migration will
be causing the population to grow.

Sources: ONS, Population estimates for England and Wales: mid-2022; ONS, Principal projection –
UK summary: 2021-based interim edition

c. A multi-ethnic population
There have been large changes in the ethnic composition of the UK in the last ten years.
- The key change is a decline in the number of people describing themselves as White
British from 80.5% to 74.4%.
- The main increases occurred among 'other white' from 4.4% to 6.2%, 'mixed' from
2.2% to 2.9%, Asian from 7.5% to 9.3% and Black from 3.3% to 4.0%.
This is the result of several factors:
 Migration from Eastern European countries, which joined the EU in 2004.
 High birth rates among 'Asian' and 'black' groups.
 Immigration has radically altered the nature of British society. The population has
changed from one that was overwhelmingly white, ethnically British and Christian, to
a multicultural one, constituted by creeds, cultures and communities drawn from all
over the world.

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