6.47 Given the following probabilities, compute all joint probabilities.

6.48 Determine all joint probabilities from the following.

6.49 Draw a probability tree to compute the joint probabilities from the following
probabilities.

6.50 Given the following probabilities, draw a probability tree to compute the joint
probabilities.

6.51 Given the following probabilities, find the joint probability P(A and B).

6.52 Approximately 10% of people are left-handed. If two people are selected at random,
what is the probability of the following events?
a. Both are right-handed.
b. Both are left-handed.
c. One is right-handed and the other is left-handed.
d. At least one is right-handed.

6.53 Refer to Exercise 6.52. Suppose that three people are selected at random.
a. Draw a probability tree to depict the experiment.
b. If we use the notation RRR to describe the selection of three right-handed people, what
are the descriptions of the remaining seven events? (Use L for left-hander.)
c. How many of the events yield no right-handers, one right-hander, two right-handers,
three righthanders?
P(A) = .7 P(B ƒ A) = .3
P(B ƒ A) = .3 P(B ƒ AC) = .3
P(A) = .8 P(AC) = .2
P(B ƒ A) = .4 P(B ƒ AC) = .7
P(A) = .5 P(AC) = .2
P(B ƒ A) = .4 P(B ƒ AC) = .7
P(A) = .8 P(AC) = .2
P(B ƒ A) = .4 P(B ƒ AC) = .7
P(A) = .9 P(AC) = .1
d. Find the probability of no right-handers, one
right-hander, two right-handers, three righthanders.
6.54 Suppose there are 100 students in your accounting class, 10 of whom are left-handed.
Two students are selected at random.
a. Draw a probability tree and insert the probabilities for each branch. What is the
probability of the following events?
b. Both are right-handed.
c. Both are left-handed.
d. One is right-handed and the other is left-handed.
e. At least one is right-handed

6.55 Refer to Exercise 6.54. Suppose that three people are selected at random.
a. Draw a probability tree and insert the probabilities of each branch.
b. What is the probability of no right-handers, one right-hander, two right-handers, three
righthanders?
6.56 An aerospace company has submitted bids on two separate federal government
defense contracts. The company president believes that there is a 40% probability of
winning the first contract. If they win the first contract, the probability of winning the
second is 70%. However, if they lose the first contract, the president thinks that the
probability of winning the second contract decreases to 50%.
a. What is the probability that they win both contracts?
b. What is the probability that they lose both contracts?
c. What is the probability that they win only one contract?
6.57 A telemarketer calls people and tries to sell them a subscription to a daily newspaper.
On 20% of her calls, there is no answer or the line is busy. She sells subscriptions to 5% of
the remaining calls. For what proportion of calls does she make a sale?
6.58 A foreman for an injection-molding firm admits that on 10% of his shifts, he forgets to
shut off the injection machine on his line. This causes the machine to overheat, increasing
the probability from 2% to
20% that a defective molding will be produced during the early morning run. What
proportion of moldings from the early morning run is defective?

6.59 A study undertaken by the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections in 2002 revealed that
44% of registered
voters are Democrats, 37% are Republicans, and 19% are others. If two registered voters
are selected at random, what is the probability that both of them have the same party
affiliation? (Source: Miami Herald, April 11, 2002.)

6.60 In early 2001, the U.S. Census Bureau started releasing the results of the 2000 census.
Among many
other pieces of information, the bureau recorded the race or ethnicity of the residents of
every county in every state. From these results, the bureau calculated a “diversity index”
that measures the probability that two people chosen at random are of different races or
ethnicities. Suppose that the census determined that in a county in Wisconsin 80% of its
residents are white, 15% are black, and 5% are Asian. Calculate the diversity index for this
county.

6.61 A survey of middle-aged men reveals that 28% of them are balding at the crown of
their heads. Moreover, it is known that such men have an 18% probability of suffering a
heart attack in the next 10 years. Men who are not balding in this way have an 11%
probability of a heart attack. Find the probability that a middle-aged man will suffer a heart
attack sometime in the next 10 years.

6.62 The chartered financial analyst (CFA) is a designation earned after a candidate has
taken three annual exams (CFA I, II, and III). The exams are taken in early June.
Candidates who pass an exam are eligible to take the exam for the next level in the
following year. The pass rates for levels I, II, and III are .57, .73, and .85, respectively.
Suppose that 3,000 candidates take the level I exam, 2,500 take the level II exam, and 2,000
take the level III exam. Suppose that one student is selected at random. What is the
probability that he or she has passed the exam? (Source: Institute of Financial Analysts.)

6.63 The Nickels restaurant chain regularly conducts surveys of its customers. Respondents
are asked to assess food quality, service, and price. The responses are Excellent Good Fair
Surveyed customers are also asked whether they would come back. After analyzing the
responses, an expert in probability determined that 87% of customers say that they will
return. Of those who so indicate, 57% rate the restaurant as excellent, 36% rate it as good,
and the remainder rate it as fair. Of those who say that they won’t return, the probabilities
are 14%, 32%, and 54%, respectively. What proportion of customers rate the restaurant as
good?

6.64 Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine have determined

that children under 2 years old who sleep with the lights on have a 36% chance of
becoming myopic before they are 16. Children who sleep in darkness have a 21%
probability of becoming myopic. A survey indicates that 28% of children under 2 sleep
with some light on. Find the probability that a child under 16 is myopic.

6.65 All printed circuit boards (PCBs) that are manufactured at a certain plant are
inspected. An analysis of the company’s records indicates that 22% of all PCBs are flawed
in some way. Of those that are flawed, 84% are reparable and the rest must be discarded. If
a newly produced PCB is randomly selected, what is the probability that it does not have to
be discarded?

6.66 A financial analyst has determined that there is a 22% probability that a mutual fund
will outperform the market over a 1-year period provided that it outperformed the market
the previous year. If only 15% of mutual funds outperform the market during any year,
what is the probability that a mutual fund will outperform the market 2 years in a row?

6.67 An investor believes that on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
increases, the probability that the NASDAQ also increases is 77%. If the investor believes
that there is a 60% probability that the DJIA will increase tomorrow, what is the probability
that the NASDAQ will increase as well?

6.68 The controls of an airplane have several backup systems or redundancies so that if one
fails the plane will continue to operate. Suppose that the mechanism that controls the flaps
has two backups. If the probability that the main control fails is .0001 and the probability
that each backup will fail is .01, what is the probability that all three fail to operate?

6.69 According to TNS Intersearch, 69% of wireless web users use it primarily for
receiving and sending e-mail. Suppose that three wireless web users are selected at random.
What is the probability that all of them use it primarily for e-mail?

6.70 A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the economy will experience a
recession in the next 12 months is 25%. She also believes that if the economy will
experience a recession in the next 12 months is 25%. She also believes that if the economy
encounters a recession, the probability that her mutual fund will increase in value is 20%. If
there is no recession, the probability that the mutual fund will increase in value is 75%.
Find the probability that the mutual fund’s value will increase.
6.71 Refer to Exercise 6.47. Determine P(A/B).

6.72 Refer to Exercise 6.48. Find the following.

a. P(A/B)
b. P(Ac/B)
c. P(A/Bc)
d. P(Ac/Bc)

6.73 Refer to Example 6.9. An MBA applicant believes that the probability of scoring more
than 650 on the GMAT without the preparatory course is .95. What
is the probability of attaining that level after taking the preparatory course?

6.74 Refer to Exercise 6.58. The plant manager randomly selects a molding from the early
morning run and discovers it is defective. What is the probability that the foreman forgot to
shut off the machine the previous night?

6.75 The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration gathers data concerning the
causes of highway crashes where at least one fatality has occurred. The following
probabilities were determined from the 1998 annual study (BAC is blood-alcohol content).
(Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2000, Table 1042.)
P(BAC =0 /Crash with fatality) = .616
P(BAC is between .01 and .09 /Crash with fatality) = .300
P(BAC is greater than .09/ Crash with fatality) = .084
Over a certain stretch of highway during a 1-year period, suppose the probability of being
involved in a crash that results in at least one fatality is .01. It has
been estimated that 12% of the drivers on this highway drive while their BAC is greater
than .09.
Determine the probability of a crash with at least one fatality if a driver drives while legally
intoxicated (BAC greater than .09).

6.76 Refer to Exercise 6.62. A randomly selected candidate who took a CFA exam tells you
that he has passed the exam. What is the probability that he took the CFA I exam?

6.77 Bad gums may mean a bad heart. Researchers discovered that 85% of people who
have suffered a heart attack had periodontal disease, an inflammation of the gums. Only
29% of healthy people have this disease. Suppose that in a certain community heart attacks
are quite rare, occurring with only 10% probability. If someone has periodontal disease,
what is the probability that he or she will have a heart attack?
6.78 Refer to Exercise 6.77. If 40% of the people in a community will have a heart attack,
what is the probability that a person with periodontal disease will have a heart attack?

6.79 Data from the Office on Smoking and Health, Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, indicate that 40% of adults who did not finish high school, 34% of high school
graduates, 24% of adults who completed some college, and 14% of college graduates
smoke. Suppose that one individual is selected at random, and it is discovered that the
individual smokes. What is the probability that the individual is a college graduate? Use the
probabilities in Exercise 6.45 to calculate the probability that the individual is a college
graduate.

6.80 Three airlines serve a small town in Ohio. Airline A has 50% of all the scheduled
flights, airline B has 30%, and airline C has the remaining 20%. Their on-time rates are
80%, 65%, and 40%, respectively. A plane has just left on time. What is the probability that
it was airline A?

6.81 Your favorite team is in the final playoffs. You have assigned a probability of 60%
that it will win the championship. Past records indicate that when teams win the
championship, they win the first game of the series 70% of the time. When they lose the
series, they win the first game 25% of the time. The first game is over; your team has lost.
What is the probability that it will win the series?

The following exercises are based on the Applications in Medical

Screening and Medical Insurance subsection.

6.82 Transplant operations have become routine. One common transplant operation is for
kidneys. The most dangerous aspect of the procedure is the possibility that the body may
reject the new organ. Several new drugs are available for such circumstances, and the
earlier the drug is administered, the higher the probability of averting rejection. The New
England Journal of Medicine recently reported the development of a new urine test to
detect early warning signs that the body is rejecting a transplanted kidney. However, like
most other tests, the new test is not perfect. When the test is conducted on someone whose
kidney will be rejected, approximately one out of five tests will be negative (i.e., the test is
wrong). When the test is conducted on a person whose kidney will not be rejected, 8% will
show a positive test result (i.e., another incorrect result). Physicians know that in about 35%
of kidney transplants the body tries to reject the organ. Suppose that the test was performed
and the test is positive (indicating early warning of rejection). What is the probability that
the body is attempting to reject the kidney?

6.83 The Rapid Test is used to determine whether someone has HIV (the virus that causes
AIDS). The falsepositive and false-negative rates are .027 and .080, respectively. A
physician has just received the Rapid Test report that his patient tested positive. Before
receiving the result, the physician assigned his patient to the low-risk group (defined on the
basis of several variables) with only a 0.5% probability of having HIV. What is the
probability that the patient actually has HIV?

6.84 What are the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive
value in the previous exercise?

6.85 The Pap smear is the standard test for cervical cancer. The false-positive rate is .636;
the falsenegative rate is .180. Family history and age are factors that must be considered
when assigning a probability of cervical cancer. Suppose that, after
obtaining a medical history, a physician determines that 2% of women of his patient’s age
and with similar family histories have cervical cancer.
Determine the effects a positive and a negative Pap smear test have on the probability that
the patient has cervical cancer.
 CHAPTER7. RANDOM VARIABLE
7.1 The number of accidents that occur on a busy stretch of highway is a random
variable.
a. What are the possible values of this random variable?
b. Are the values countable? Explain.
c. Is there a finite number of values? Explain.
d. Is the random variable discrete or continuous? Explain.
7.2 The distance a car travels on a tank of gasoline is a random variable.
a. What are the possible values of this random variable?
b. Are the values countable? Explain.
c. Is there a finite number of values? Explain.
d. Is the random variable discrete or continuous? Explain.
7.3 The amount of money students earn on their summer jobs is a random variable.
a. What are the possible values of this random variable?
b. Are the values countable? Explain.
c. Is there a finite number of values? Explain.
d. Is the random variable discrete or continuous? Explain.
7.4 The mark on a statistics exam that consists of 100 multiple-choice questions is a
random variable.
a. What are the possible values of this random variable?
b. Are the values countable? Explain.
c. Is there a finite number of values? Explain.
d. Is the random variable discrete or continuous? Explain.
7.5 Determine whether each of the following is a valid probability distribution.
a.
X 0 1 2 3
P .1 .2 .4 .1
b.
X 5 -6 10 0
P .1 .1 .1 .97
c.
X 14 12 -7 13
P .25 .46 .04 .24

7.6 Let X be the random variable designating the number of spots that turn up when a
balanced die is rolled. What is the probability distribution of X?
7.7 In a recent census the number of color televisions per household was recorded
Number of color televisions 0 1 2 3 4 5
 Number of households (thousands) 1,218 32,379 37,961 19,387 7,714 2,842

a. Develop the probability distribution of X, the number of color televisions per

household.
b. Determine the following probabilities: P(X <=2); P(X >2); P(X >=4);
7.8 Using historical records, the personnel manager of a
plant has determined the probability distribution of
X, the number of employees absent per day. It is
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(x) .005 .025 .310 .340 .220 .080 .019 .001
a. Find the following probabilities: P(2<=X<=5); P(X>5); P(X< 4)
b. Calculate the mean of the population.
c. Calculate the standard deviation of the population.
7.9 Second-year business students at many universities are required to take 10 one-
semester courses. The number of courses that result in a grade of A is a discrete
random variable. Suppose that each value of this random variable has the same
probability.
Determine the probability distribution.
7.10 The random variable X has the following probability distribution.
x 3 2 6 8
P(x) .2 .3 .4 .1
Find the following probabilities.
a. P(X >0)
b. P(X>=1);
c. P(X>=2);
d. P(2<=X<=5);
7.11 An Internet pharmacy advertises that it will deliver the over-the-counter
products that customers purchase in 3 to 6 days. The manager of the company wanted
to be more precise in its advertising. Accordingly, she recorded the number of days it
took to deliver to customers. From the data, the following probability distribution was
developed.
Number of days 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Probability 0 0 .01 .04 .28 .42 .21 .02 .02
a. What is the probability that a delivery will be made within the advertised 3- to 6-
day period?
b. What is the probability that a delivery will be late?
c. What is the probability that a delivery will be early?
7.12 A gambler believes that a strategy called “doubling up” is an effective way to
gamble. The method requires the gambler to double the stake after each loss. Thus, if
the initial bet is $1, after losing he will double the bet until he wins. After a win, he
resorts back to a $1 bet. The result is that he will net $1 for every win. The problem
however, is that he will eventually run out of money or bump up against the table
limit. Suppose that for a certain
game the probability of winning is .5 and that losing six in a row will result in
bankrupting the gambler. Find the probability of losing six times in a row.
7.13 The probability that a university graduate will be offered no jobs within a month
of graduation is estimated to be 5%. The probability of receiving one, two, and three
job offers has similarly been estimated to be 43%, 31%, and 21%, respectively.
Determine the following probabilities.
a. A graduate is offered fewer than two jobs.
b. A graduate is offered more than one job.
7.14 Use a probability tree to compute the probability of the following events when
flipping two fair coins.
a. Heads on the first coin and heads on the second coin
b. Heads on the first coin and tails on the second coin
c. Tails on the first coin and heads on the second coin
d. Tails on the first coin and tails on the second coin
7.15 Refer to Exercise 7.14. Find the following probabilities.
a. No heads
b. One head
c. Two heads
d. At least one head
7.16 Draw a probability tree to describe the flipping of three fair coins.
7.17 Refer to Exercise 7.16. Find the following probabilities.
a. Two heads
b. One head
c. At least one head
d. At least two heads
7.18 The random variable X has the following distribution.
x 2 5 7 8
P(x) .59 .15 .25 .01
a. Find the mean and variance for the probability distribution below.
b. Determine the probability distribution of Y where Y = 5X.
c. Use the probability distribution in part (b) to compute the mean and variance of Y.
d. Use the laws of expected value and variance to find the expected value and variance
of Y from the parameters of X.
7.19 We are given the following probability distribution.
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) .4 .3 .2 .1
a. Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation.
b. Suppose that Y 3X 2. For each value of X, determine the value of Y. What is the
probability distribution of Y?
c. Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation from the probability
distribution of Y.
d. Use the laws of expected value and variance to calculate the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of Y from the mean, variance, and standard deviation of X.
Compare your answers in parts (c) and (d). Are they the same (except for rounding)?
7.20 The number of pizzas delivered to university students each month is a random
variable with the following probability distribution.
x 0 1 2 3
P(X) .1 .3 .4 .2
a. Find the probability that a student has received delivery of two or more pizzas this
month.
b. Determine the mean and variance of the number of pizzas delivered to students
each month.
7.21 Refer to Exercise 7.20. If the pizzeria makes a profit of $3 per pizza, determine
the mean and variance of the profits per student.
7.22 After watching a number of children playing games at a video arcade, a statistics
practitioner estimated the following probability distribution of X, the number of
games per visit.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(x) .05 .15 .15 .25 .20 .10 .10
a. What is the probability that a child will play more than four games?
b. What is the probability that a child will play at least two games?
7.23 Refer to Exercise 7.22. Determine the mean and variance of the number of games
played.
7.24 Refer to Exercise 7.23. Suppose that each game costs the player 25 cents. Use the
laws of expected value and variance to determine the expected value and variance of
the amount of money the arcade takes in.
7.25 Refer to Exercise 7.22.
a. Determine the probability distribution of theamount of money the arcade takes in
per child.
b. Use the probability distribution to calculate the mean and variance of the amount of
money the arcade takes in.
c. Compare the answers in part (b) with those of Exercise 7.24. Are they identical
(except for rounding errors)?
7.26 A survey of Amazon.com shoppers reveals the following probability distribution
of the number of books purchased per hit.
x01234567
P(x) .35 .25 .20 .08 .06 .03 .02 .01
a. What is the probability that an Amazon.com visitor will buy four books?
b. What is the probability that an Amazon.com visitor will buy eight books?
c. What is the probability that an Amazon.com visitor will not buy any books?
d. What is the probability that an Amazon.com visitor will buy at least one book?
7.27 A university librarian produced the following probability distribution of the
number of times a student walks into the library over the period of a semester.
x 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 75 100
P(x) .22 .29 .12 .09 .08 .05 .04 .04 .03 .03 .01
Find the following probabilities.
a.
b. P(X 60)
c. P(X 50)
d. P(X 100)
7.28 After analyzing the frequency with which crosscountry skiers participate in their
sport, a sportswriter created the following probability distribution for X number of
times per year cross-country skiers ski.
x012345678
P(x) .04 .09 .19 .21 .16 .12 .08 .06 .05
Find the following.
a. P(3)
b.
c.
7.29 The natural remedy echinacea is reputed to boost the immune system, which will
reduce the number of flu and colds. A 6-month study was undertaken to determine
whether the remedy works. From this study, the following probability distribution of
the
number of respiratory infections per year (X) for echinacea users was produced.
x01234
P(x) .45 .31 .17 .06 .01
Find the following probabilities.
a. An echinacea user has more than one infection per year.
b. An echinacea user has no infections per year.
c. An echinacea user has between one and three (inclusive) infections per year.
7.30 A shopping mall estimates the probability distribution of the number of stores
mall customers actually enter, as shown in the table.
x0123456
P(x) .04 .19 .22 .28 .12 .09 .06
Find the mean and standard deviation of the number of stores entered.
7.31 Refer to Exercise 7.30. Suppose that, on average, customers spend 10 minutes in
each store they enter. Find the mean and standard deviation of the total amount of
time customers spend in stores.
7.32 When parking a car in a downtown parking lot, drivers pay according to the
number of hours or parts thereof. The probability distribution of the number of hours
cars are parked has been estimated as follows.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(x) .24 .18 .13 .10 .07 .04 .04 .20
Find the mean and standard deviation of the number of hours cars are parked in the
lot.
7.33 Refer to Exercise 7.32. The cost of parking is $2.50 per hour. Calculate the mean
and standard deviation of the amount of revenue each car generates.
7.34 You have been given the choice of receiving $500 in cash or receiving a gold coin
that has a face value of $100. However, the actual value of the gold coin depends on its
gold content. You are told that the coin has a 40% probability of being worth $400, a
30% probability of being worth $900, and a 30% probability of being worth its face
value. Basing your decision on expected value, should you choose the coin?
7.35 The manager of a bookstore recorded the number of customers who arrive at a
checkout counter every 5 minutes from which the following distribution was
calculated. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the random variable.
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) .10 .20 .25 .25 .20
7.36 The owner of a small firm has just purchased a personal computer, which she
expects will serve her for the next 2 years. The owner has been told that she “must”
buy a surge suppressor to provide protection for her new hardware against possible
surges or variations in the electrical current, which have the capacity to damage the
computer. The amount of damage to the computer depends on the strength of the
surge. It has been estimated that there is a 1% chance of incurring $400 damage, a 2%
chance of
incurring $200 damage, and 10% chance of $100 damage. An inexpensive suppressor,
which would provide protection for only one surge can be purchased. How much
should the owner be willing to pay if she makes decisions on the basis of expected
value?
7.37 It cost one dollar to buy a lottery ticket, which has five prizes. The prizes and the
probability that a player wins the prize are listed here. Calculate the expected value of
the payoff.
Prize ($) 1 million 200,000 50,000
Probability 1/10 million 1/1 million 1/500,000
Prize ($) 10,000 1,000
Probability 1/50,000 1/10,000
7.38 After an analysis of incoming faxes the manager of an accounting firm
determined the probability distribution of the number of pages per facsimile as
follows:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(x) .05 .12 .20 .30 .15 .10 .08
Compute the mean and variance of the number of pages per fax.
7.39 Refer to Exercise 7.38. Further analysis by the manager revealed that the cost of
processing each page of a fax is $.25. Determine the mean and variance of the cost per
fax.
7.40 To examine the effectiveness of its four annual advertising promotions, a mail-
order company has sent a questionnaire to each of its customers, asking how many of
the previous year’s promotions prompted orders that would not otherwise have been
made.
The table lists the probabilities that were derived from the questionnaire, where X is
the random variable representing the number of promotions that prompted orders. If
we assume that overall customer behavior next year will be the same as last year,
what
is the expected number of promotions that each customer will take advantage of next
year by ordering goods that otherwise would not be purchased?
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) .10 .25 .40 .20 .05
7.41 Refer to Exercise 7.40. A previous analysis of historical records found that the
mean value of orders for promotional goods is $20, with the company earning a gross
profit of 20% on each order. Calculate the expected value of the profit contribution
next year.
7.42 Refer to Exercises 7.40 and 7.41. The fixed cost of conducting the four
promotions is estimated to be $15,000, with a variable cost of $3.00 per customer for
mailing and handling costs. How large a customer base does the company need to
cover the cost of promotions?