1) Finding Red John in the Mentalist Universe with simple estimations

Many people think that Red John is almost impossible to find, but that simply isn't true. Even
without the psychiatrist's description of Red John's appearance, and the 2 thousand
handshake list in mind, there are still information we can use to narrow down his identity,
creating a list of our own. For this example we will be searching for certain details in the time
that the series begins, in 2008, as well as taking into account that Red John is most likely a
police officer than a politician, as the data for the numbers of politicians in California is
harder to find, as well as Red John's allies being mostly related to the police and law
enforcement rather than politics most of the time. So with that, we have 4 characteristics
linked to Red John to track him down:

1) He is at least 43 years old (as in the red barn episode they find a barn with the Red John
smiley face in it from 1988, 25 years ago from 2013. Assuming that he was probably 18
years old, as he should have been able to kill people by that time, and would need to be
quite grown up to do so, we can estimate that he is at least 43 years old), and probably less
than 70 years old, as if he was that old he probably wouldn't be able to kill grown men,
women and escape from scenes as fast as he does. So his age range is between 40+ to 60+
years old.

2) He is a man (quite obvious)

3) He is linked to the police, and is probably a police officer

4) During his appearance in season 2 where Patrick is restrained, you could probably
calculate his height, as well as in other situations like how he paints his smiley face with the
height of his arms to find a proportion between his arms and his whole body, and with all of
this you could come to the conclusion that he is 6 feet tall, or 183 centimeters, since Red
John's actor is 6 feet tall, having that exact height.

With this, I searched on the internet for data in California about how many police members
there are in the states, as well as their gender, their height and their age, and while I couldn't
get all of the data from 2008, it still should be close to how the numbers would have been in
that time. And this is what I was able to get in my investigation:

There were about 79,431 police officers in California in 2008. We can round this number to
80k. Next, the number of men compared to women in the police system is 86% (2022 data),
so from 80k suspects we go down to 68,800 suspects. There is a pdf file about the age of
people in California during 2008, and taking the numbers from the 45 to 54, 55 and 59, as
well as 60 to 64 age gaps, we can get a number of about 8 million people in these age
ranges in total, with there being 36 million and 700 thousand people in the state at that time.
With this, I did some calculations and the percentage of people in these age ranges is 22%.
So from 68,800 suspects, we can narrow it down to 15k suspects.

I couldn't find a height chart for California men in 2008, but there is a height chart for men's
average height across the USA in 2021, and we can use this for measurement in this case.
California is one of the shortest states in the country, so taking these percentages into
account might be a conservative calculation of the final numbers of suspects. In theory, it
could be way less, especially since I am not factoring the fact that height and age combined
are a factor in itself, that could bring down the numbers to an even lower level.

But with the height chart, we can see that men with 6 feet of height only take 13% of space
in the graph. If we take this and apply to California having a similar ratio in height between all
men, then the 15k suspects are now reduced to only 1 thousand and 950 suspects. For
reference, this number is a bit lower than PJ's handshake list, and this is just based on 4
simple details.

So basically, even if you didn't get the clue of PJ's psychiatrist's about Red John's physical
characteristics and the 2 thousand handshakes list, and only based yourself around these
details, you could get a list of who Red John is by the end of season 5, or way earlier if you
discovered the red barn in earlier seasons.

So with simple calculations, you can get a list of people similar to PJ, without huge amounts
of clues. With the handshake list and Red John's characteristics details, instead of a final list
of 7 being created that took much time to be created, you would already know who Red John
in a much faster way, if you linked it with all the previous information.

2) Red John's trap evasion debunked

From season 3 to season 6 Red John has two trap evasion feats that do not require actual
intelligence or high IQ to notice, and any normal person would know that it is a trap for a very
simple fact. Having two people be invited to these traps, proves that they are traps.

For season 3, PJ talks to everyone about a woman who is important for the plot, and he
gives a number of a different room to 4 different people. So when they send someone to
open that specific room number, PJ would know which person got that exact number. If Red
John had only one ally which PJ send the room number to, RJ wouldn't notice that it was a
trap. But PJ's massive flaw was that he sent the different room number to another one of
Red John's allies, Gale Bertram.

In season 6 it is revealed that he is a Blake association member, but even from season 3
there was only one way that RJ could have figured out that PJ's hotel strategy was a trap.
He could only have logically known if two people were told by PJ about the numbers of the
room.

If only one person of his team was told, Red John wouldn't have suspected that there were
different numbers of rooms that were shared between 3 other people, and thus would fall for
PJ's trap.

But with Bertram, he would have noticed that both his goons got two different numbers for
rooms, which made it clear that PJ was planning something, and even an average person
would notice this, understanding what his plan is all about. You would only have to connect
the pieces that:

1) PJ shared multiple different room numbers for the 4 people he contacted, not letting
anyone involved know about the other room numbers and other people that he told it to

2) His use of different numbers was probably used to see which person wanted to kill the
woman in the hotel
3) He would use this fact to discover that the killer that went to the specific numbered room
was linked to RJ

This is a train of thought that an avarage person could deduce within minutes, and wouldn't
be impressive for RJ standards, with it being obvious that it was a trap for the simple fact
that his two helpers were given contradictory information by PJ himself, which would be
highly suspicious, if not a blatant attempt at catching someone, which everybody could see.

The proof that RJ could only have forseen this because of Bertram's involvement that relied
on the pure luck of being chosen by Patrick was that the first door that the killer goes to is
Bertram's room, then she uses the rope to go down to the other guys room that worked for
RJ. This is important, since it wasn't only to frame Bertram, to throw PJ off, and make him
not notice the rope tactic linked to the second Blake Association member. RJ only knew of
these two rooms, and he sent the killer to go to Bertrams room first because the woman
could have been there, with the rope being used to go to the other room below. If Bertram
wasn't on it, then he wouldn't have known about the other rooms, and the killer would have
gone directly to the room that the other RJ friend got. It doesn't make sense any other way,
and is the only way that RJ could have sent the killer to Bertrams room specifically, to see if
one of the two numbers that he got was actually correct.

For season 6, the trap evasion near PJ's house is also explained, as two of the people that
got called by PJ are from the Blake Association as well. Again, one of them is Bertram,
which would make the analysis on the season 3 trap evasion debunk even more concrete,
as he helps Red John in this one as well. He and another guy get invited by PJ to a place
near his home, and so does Red John. Now, if you are in Red John's place, it doesn't take
even an above avarage human to notice that this is a trap. Think of it, Red John knows
Patrick's list, and these three characters are specifically Red John suspects, so if PJ wanted
to gather all of them in one place, RJ would have no problem getting a flash grenade and
faking his death in anticipation. Predicting that he would want to solve the case at that very
moment is not hard, and imagining that he could kill the three of them at that point is not that
difficult as well. So evading this trap is not that hard, as the signs are clear as day.

3) Red John makes himself more suspcious by getting near Bertram and Smith

In season 6, inside of the CBI, Red John meets with Bertram and Smith, two other people
that are Red John suspects, in broad daylight. Even in season 3, a person could have
deduced that Bertram was a Blake Association agent, because of how the trap was evaded.
This would reinforce the idea that between one of these three, one of them was RJ, even
before the trap set later on in the season that revealed that they had 3 dots marked in their
skin, which was a symbol linked to the Blake Association. From this alone, Jane could lower
his list of 7 suspects to only 3 suspects. He doesn't seem to bother that he is making himself
to be a bigger target in Jane's eyes, exposing himself in public in a way that would make him
more guilty.

4) Season 4 finale car countermeasure

Red John decides that Jane has something up his sleeve, so he doesn't appear and instead
puts a phone in one of the CBI members bodies to talk with him, hearing what he has to say.
This is nothing special. Thinking that Patrick could be setting up something for him is
expected, and not at all outside of his regular tactics. Strapping a phone to someone and
talking with it instead of going inside the car to meet Patrick is a good move, but not
something particular impressive. While PJ's CBI friends death were faked to make it seem
like he turned evil, to gain the trust of RJ, the CBI discovered that the deaths were faked
shortly before PJ went to meet with RJ, so Red John, having huge information intel inside
the CBI, would get the news that PJ's friends weren't killed by him, and that he didn't
become a killer. This could also count as trap evasion, you decide, either way it is not that
good of a feat, as he mostly just knew that PJ was trying to trick him, and did a simple
countermeasure to combat this strategy.

5) Red John's terrible anticipation, decision making, intuition and common sense (Pigeon
tactic)

When he meets PJ at the church, he falls for the Pigeon tactic and goes down. PJ, someone
who he knows is dangerous, highly deceptive, who sets up traps all the time, gets the better
of him, in one of the best displays of RJ having no knowledge given by others to aid him
against a trap. PJ flat out says for Red John to take something from his hand, and he
accepts it, knowing that this guy always has an ace in his sleeve. He then gets surprised by
a pigeon and dies minutes later.

He also cannot anticipate that Patrick would use the church's location to his advantage, by
hiding something inside of it before RJ got there. This would support that RJ is heavily
carried by information intel, and without it he isn't as strong as his normally is.

6) Red John's headcannon that he can control all his emotions debunk + overall Emotional
Management debunk

Some people believe that Red John has insane emotional control over his expressions, body
and overall acting, as PJ can't be sure if the sheriff is actually RJ, so that would mean that
Red John has amazing EM, since PJ can't figure out that he is the killer just from glance, but
that simply isn't true. While PJ can read people like a book, he can't actually read people's
mind, and he isn't always certain that people are actually what they might be. His reading of
people can oftenly fail, and is certainly not instant. Erika Flynn made him doubt his Seeing
Through People abilities, and for evidence of him not being able to see through normal
people sometimes there is the end of season 1, with one of Red John's followers. One of
RJ's followers passes himself as a normal cop, and PJ doesn't even suspect of him. He
looks at him, and can't get nothing particularly strange about him, or that he might be evil.

There is another guy later down the line who is also associated to the Blake Association. He
gets burned, and tells this to PJ before he dies, and PJ just knows about it after he tells it. If
he didn't tell it, PJ wouldn't know about it, and he is just a normal guy, with no masterful
control over his emotions.

So this point of RJ having absolute control over his emotions is complete bullshit, as other
characters have maintained secrets from PJ that he couldn't solve by just looking at their
faces. Even La Roche, had a severed tongue stored in a tiny box, and even with him being
worried about the contents inside the box being revealed, his emotional expressions, and the
way he talked about it, PJ couldn't figure what was inside the box itself.

Plus in the same episode that PJ meets the sheriff again, he is way more sure that he is RJ
than any of the others. This mostly relates to the overall EM part, as RJ is described as
afraid of heights by PJ's psychiatrist, and the sheriff is also hesitant on climbing up a ladder.
Along with this, she also says that he is afraid of birds, with him getting afraid of them after
he goes to save Jane from his potential killer at the end of the episode. So in the episode
itself he couldn't control himself from showing his phobias, and in theory proved that he can't
control all of his emotions to such an absurd point as many actually believe.

Now, he could have simply not known that PJ knew about his psychiatric evaluation, so he
didn't control his emotions during these moments specifically, but it is debatable, and is more
probable that he just couldn't control it that well.

7) 2 thousand handshakes list prediction feat is just a trick (CPI debunk)

People believe that Red John narrowed down PJ's 2 thousand handshakes list way faster
than he did by clearing out the unlikely suspects, and thinking of who PJ might suspect, to
create the definitive final list, which would require massive amounts of CPI due to the
possibilities of a final list from that many people that could be chosen.

Anyways, PJ labels the RJ list feat as a "trick". A trick being mostly known as a from of
deceptive demonstration to make it seem like someone did something that they actually
didn't do. Such things as magic tricks are an example. Make people believe I can read
minds, but it's a trick, I can't read minds. And magic tricks are what mentalists do, and so
does PJ. Red John's trick could be labeled as such. Patrick makes other people think he can
read minds, but he can't, he just finds a way to make it seem like that is how he reads
people. Cards disappear out of nowhere? Actual magic? No. Sleight of hand. Levitation
magic of paper? No. Hidden wire that can't be seen.

And one of the greatest proofs that Red John's trick is just that, a simple trick, is that before
he calls it a trick, the list feat is put alongside the feat where Red John fakes his death. Red
John didn't actually die, he just made it seem like he died, again, a trick. Red John also
doesn't go against Patrick saying that the list of suspects is a trick, and asks about the two
feats alongside each other, implying that they are both tricks that aren't as they seem.

The list of suspects feats is Red John trying to prove that he "predicted" PJ's list, and most
likely read his mind. But the truth is, if that is a trick, then his actual methods aren't mind
reading or prediction, but something else. What could it be? We can only speculate, but
these two examples wouldn't be the only times this has happened. Like when Red John
killed someone PJ knew, to make it seem like he went into his brain and took away a happy
memory from him, only to be revealed the he got info from Jane's psychiatrist all along.

A trick is just that, make it seem like you did something that you couldn't have possibly done,
or is impossible to do so.
And even if he had to narrow down Jane's list, he could have always sent someone to check
on his list in his room in the CBI. Another man who wanted to catch RJ went to PJ's room
and took a fake list from him. It wouldn't be hard for RJ to do the same, but discovering the
real list instead of a fake one. And even if this list still had a lot of people in it, it wouldn't be
that difficult to narrow down the suspects, and wouldn't be a massive CPI feats, specially
since he knows who Jane might suspect or not. Brett Styles is a massive manipulator, old,
cult leader, so he is an obvious one. Bretram being a big suspect himself. The guy who was
at RJ's crime scenes could be RJ appreciating his work. And another guy who was linked to
his organization and was suspicious. In the final list, 3 of the people in it were from the Blake
association, then there was him, Styles, and two others. If he had to put his mind to work, it
wouldn't be that complex to see which ones might get picked for the final rendition of Jane's
list.

8) Bosco was able to compromise Red John in a severe way

Bosco, a detective who was above average in intellect, alongside his team, were able to
investigate and gain a piece of information so important to the case that Red John had to
send someone to kill him. Bosco is not a noteworthy character, many people don't even put
him at top 10 in the series, and he doesn't even have great feats. Yet, he made a discovery
that made Red John act in an agressive way, which implies that Red John made a slip up
that could have lead to him being captured way faster than expected. If Bosco was a way
better detective, and was more cautious of the fact that RJ could send someone to kill him,
then the Red John case wouldn't be held up in such high regards as one of the hardest in
the SCD community.

9) Patrick struggles with people who should realistically be of no issue for him to handle

Patrick can no diff people that are quite smart, but he struggles against people that he would
normally low diff, like Erika Flyyn, or the SJK killer. He wasn't sure if he could see through
Erika, and he needed to trigger Red John to stop the SJK killer. Patrick using Red John to kill
said killer was implied to be a last resort, as PJ simply couldn't prove the identity of the SJK
killer normally, even being outsmarted by him during the episode. Erika also outsmarts
Patrick during her episode, showing a detail in the room that they were in that invalidated
PJ's initial reasoning. These people, absolute fodders, who get taken out in one episode,
have outsmarted him at least once. This proves that the closer someone comes to give him
a bit of a challenge, this challenge proves to skyrocket in difficulty for PJ, for some reason.

So even if Red John wasn't that smart, and was to say, two or three times as smart as these
people, the challenge that he would give to Patrick would be much higher than expected, as
Jane seems to struggle in taking out people that are actually smart, and not just your killer of
the week type character. So his difficulty in catching Red John might be an exaggerated
difficulty due to his problem of facing people anywhere near his level. Something specific to
him, and not to most people.

10) PJ is nerfed due to plot induced stupidity (inconsistecy of Patrick Jane's portrayal and
feats) + Red John had plot armour
PJ is inconsistently written throughout the 6 seasons were he faces Red John. In one
episode he can analyze 12 monitors at the same time, but in another he fails to notice Red
John's rope trick. Sometimes his abilities are almost unrealistic, like actual mind reading, in
other situations he can deduce a crime while suffering from ilusions, and he can even cold
read people in seconds while as a young man. But then, he has difficulty to notice certain
people's intentions, he makes careless mistakes when going against Red John, and the level
of his reasoning fluctuates from one occasion to the other.

Plus, Red John couldn't have been caught by Patrick even if the writers were to actually
make him consistently as smart as he could possibly be, because in the earlier seasons they
didn't even know who Red John was supposed to be. So one of the reasons Patrick couldn't
figure it out way earlier, was because the character itself didn't have an identity at all in the
earlier seasons. But when you get to season 5 and season 6, you can see that RJ gets more
information about his identity revealed, Patrick can trace his true self more easily and the
clues are easier to discover.

In a way, Red John was helped by a plot that didn't decide who he was, needing to stretch
out his arc until they came up with a potential killer. With PJ mostly not looking out for people
related to him that could become Red John victims, not deducing the rope tactic that he
should have deduced faster than was shown, his observation failing to notice that the fake
RJ carried a weapon inside a newspaper, not being able to see through a Blake Association
member intention of hurting him in the end of season 1. It is odd, but since Red John is a
main part of the show, prolonging this battle of wits for many seasons could have much to do
with nerfing PJ, so that Red John seems harder to fight against.