Problem 2

Develop a network diagram for the project specified below:

Immediate
Activity Predecessor
Activity
A -

B A

C, D B

E C

F D

G E, F

Solution

Activity A has no predecessor activity. i.e., It is the first activity. Let

us suppose that activity A takes the project from event 1 to event 2. Then
we have the following representation for A:

A
1 2

For activity B, the predecessor activity is A. Let us suppose that B

joins nodes 2 and 3. Thus we get

A B
1 2 3

Activities C and D have B as the predecessor activity. Therefore we

obtain the following:

247
 4
C
B
2 3

Activity E has D as the predecessor activity. So we get

C E
3 4 6

Activity F has D as the predecessor activity. So we get

D F
3 5 6l
”

Activity G has E and F as predecessor activities. This is possible

only if nodes 6 and 6l are one and the same. So, rename node 6l as node 6.
Then we get

D F
3 5 6!

and

4
E

6
G 7
F
5

248
 G is the last activity.

Putting all the pieces together, we obtain the following diagram the
project network:

C 4
Start event E End event
A B
1 2 3 G
6 7

D 5 F

The diagram is validated by referring to the given data.

Note: An important point may be observed for the above diagram.

Consider the following parts in the diagram

C E
3 4 6

and

D F
3 5 6l
”

We took nodes 6 and 6l as one and the same. Instead, we can retain
them as different nodes. Then, in order to provide connectivity to the
network, we join nodes 6l and 6 by a dummy activity. Then we arrive at
the following diagram for the project network:

E
Start event C 4
6
G
1 2 3 dummy
A B
activity
7
D
F
5 6l
!
End event

249
Questions

1. Explain the terms: event, predecessor event, successor event, activity,

dummy activity, network.
2. Construct the network diagram for the following project:

Immediate
Activity Predecessor
Activity
A -
B -
C A
D B

E A

F C, D

G E
H E
I F, G
J H, I

****

250
 Lesson 4 - Critical Path Method (CPM)

Lesson Outline

ӹӹ The concepts of critical path and critical activities

ӹӹ Location of the critical path
ӹӹ Evaluation of the project completion time

Learning Objectives

After reading this lesson you should be able to

ӹӹ understand the definitions of critical path and critical activities

ӹӹ identify critical path and critical activities
ӹӹ determine the project completion time

Introduction

The critical path method (CPM) aims at the determination of the

time to complete a project and the important activities on which a manager
shall focus attention.

Assumption For Cpm

In CPM, it is assumed that precise time estimate is available for

each activity.

Project Completion Time

From the start event to the end event, the time required to complete
all the activities of the project in the specified sequence is known as the
project completion time.

251
Path In A Project

A continuous sequence, consisting of nodes and activities

alternatively, beginning with the start event and stopping at the end event
of a network is called a path in the network.

Critical Path And Crtical Activities

Consider all the paths in a project, beginning with the start

event and stopping at the end event. For each path, calculate the time of
execution, by adding the time for the individual activities in that path.

The path with the largest time is called the critical path and the
activities along this path are called the critical activities or bottleneck
activities. The activities are called critical because they cannot be delayed.
However, a non-critical activity may be delayed to a certain extent. Any
delay in a critical activity will delay the completion of the whole project.
However, a certain permissible delay in a non –critical activity will not
delay the completion of the whole project. It shall be noted that delay in a
non-critical activity beyond a limit would certainly delay the completion
the whole project. Sometimes, there may be several critical paths for a
project. A project manager shall pay special attention to critical activities.

Problem 1

The following details are available regarding a project:

Predecessor
Activity Duration (Weeks)
Activity
A - 3

B A 5

C A 7

D B 10

E C 5

F D,E 4

252
 Determine the critical path, the critical activities and the project
completion time.

Solution

First let us construct the network diagram for the given project. We
mark the time estimates along the arrows representing the activities. We
obtain the following diagram:

Start event B 3 D End event

5 10
A
1 2
3 F
5 6
C 4
7 E
5
4

Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping
with the end node. There are two such paths for the given project. They are
as follows:

Path I

A B D F
1 2 3 5 6
3 5 10 4

with a time of 3 + 5 + 10 + 4 = 22 weeks.

Path II

A C E F
1 2 4 5 6
3 7 5 4

with a time of 3 + 7 + 5 + 4 = 19 weeks.

Compare the times for the two paths. Maximum of {22,19} = 22.
We see that path I has the maximum time of 22 weeks. Therefore, path
I is the critical path. The critical activities are A, B, D and F. The project

253
completion time is 22 weeks.
We notice that C and E are non- critical activities.
Time for path I - Time for path II = 22- 19 = 3 weeks.

Therefore, together the non- critical activities can be delayed upto

a maximum of 3 weeks, without delaying the completion of the whole
project.

Problem 2

Find out the completion time and the critical activities for the
following project:
D
5
2 20 1

G 8
A
8 E H 11 K 6
B 6 8 10
1 3
10 16
14
1 1

I L
7 5
C
J 9
F 10 1

7
4 25

Solution

In all, we identify 4 paths, beginning with the start node of 1 and

terminating at the end node of 10. They are as follows:

Path I

A D G K
1 2 5 8 10
8 20 8 6

Time for the path = 8 + 20 + 8 + 6 = 42 units of time.

254
Path II

B E H K
1 3 6 8 10
10 16 11 6

Time for the path = 10 + 16 + 11 + 6 = 43 units of time.

Path III

B E I L
1 3 6 9 10
10 16 14 5

Time for the path = 10 + 16 + 14 + 5 = 45 units of time.

Path IV

C F J L
1 4 7 9 10
7 25 10 5

Time for the path = 7 + 25 + 10 + 5 = 47 units of time.

Compare the times for the four paths. Maximum of {42,

43, 45, 47} = 47. We see that the following path has the maximum
time and so it is the critical path:

C F J L
1 4 7 9 10
7 25 10 5

The critical activities are C, F, J and L. The non-critical activities

are A, B, D, E, G, H, I and K. The project completion time is 47
units of time.
Problem 3

255
 Draw the network diagram and determine the critical path for the
following project:

Activity Time estimate (Weeks)

1- 2 5
1- 3 6

1- 4 3

2 -5 5
3 -6 7

3 -7 10

4 -7 4

5 -8 2

6 -8 5
7 -9 6
8 -9 4

Solution

We have the following network diagram for the project:

D 5
2
5 1
H
2
A
5
1 B E 6
I 8
K
3
6 7 1
3 1
4 9
1

10 J
3 C F
6
G 7
4
4

256
Solution

We assert that there are 4 paths, beginning with the start node of 1
and terminating at the end node of 9. They are as follows:

Path I

A D H K 9
1 2 5 8
5 5 2 4

Time for the path = 5 + 5 + 2 + 4 = 16 weeks.

Path II

B E I K 9
1 3 6 8
6 7 5 4

Time for the path = 6 + 7 + 5 + 4 = 22 weeks.

Path III

B F J
1 3 7 9
6 10 6

Time for the path = 6 + 10 + 6 = 16 weeks.

Path IV

C 4 5
1 4 7 9
3 4 6

Time for the path = 3 + 4 + 6 = 13 weeks.

Compare the times for the four paths. Maximum of {16, 22, 16, 13}
= 22. We see that the following path has the maximum time and so it is the
critical path:

257
 D E I K
1 3 6 8 9
6 7 5 4

The critical activities are B, E, I and K. The non-critical activities are A, C,

D, F, G, H and J. The project completion time is 22 weeks.

Questions

1. Explain the terms: critical path, critical activities.

2. The following are the time estimates and the precedence relationships
of the activities in a project network:

IMMEDIATE
time estimate
Activity Predecessor
(weeks)
Activity
A - 4

B - 7

C - 3

D A 6

E B 4

F B 7

G C 6

H E 10

I D 3

J F, G 4

K H, I 2

Draw the project network diagram. Determine the critical path and the
project completion time.

****

258
 Lesson 5 - Pert

Lesson Outline

ӹӹ The Concept Of Pert

ӹӹ Estimates Of The Time Of An Activity
ӹӹ Determination Of Critical Path
ӹӹ Probability Estimates
ӹӹ Normal Probability Distribution Table

Learning Objectives

After reading this lesson you should be able to

ӹӹ Understand the importance of PERT

ӹӹ Locate the critical path
ӹӹ Determine the project completion time
ӹӹ Find out the probability of completion of a project before a
stipulated time
ӹӹ Use the normal probability distribution table

Introduction

Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a tool that

would help a project manager in project planning and control. It would
enable him in continuously monitoring a project and taking corrective
measures wherever necessary. This technique involves statistical methods.

Assumptions for Pert

Note that in CPM, the assumption is that precise time estimate is

available for each activity in a project. However, one finds most of the
times that this is not practically possible.

259
 In PERT, we assume that it is not possible to have precise time
estimate for each activity and instead, probabilistic estimates of time
alone are possible. A multiple time estimate approach is followed here. In
probabilistic time estimate, the following 3 types of estimate are possible:

Pessimistic time estimate ( t p )

Optimistic time estimate ( to )
Most likely time estimate ( tm )

The optimistic estimate of time is based on the assumption that

an activity will not involve any difficulty during execution and it can be
completed within a short period. On the other hand, a pessimistic estimate
is made on the assumption that there would be unexpected problems
during the execution of an activity and hence it would consume more
time. The most likely time estimate is made in between the optimistic and
the pessimistic estimates of time. Thus the three estimates of time have the
relationship
to ≤ t m ≤ t p

Practically speaking, neither the pessimistic nor the optimistic

estimate may hold in reality and it is the most likely time estimate that is
expected to prevail in almost all cases. Therefore, it is preferable to give
more weight to the most likely time estimate.

We give a weight of 4 to most likely time estimate and a weight of 1

each to the pessimistic and optimistic time estimates. We arrive at a time
estimate ( te ) as the weighted average of these estimates as follows:

to + 4 t m + t p
te =
6

Since we have taken 6 units ( 1 for t p , 4 for tm and 1 for to ), we

divide the sum by 6. With this time estimate, we can determine the project
completion time as applicable for CPM.

Since PERT involves the average of three estimates of time for each
activity, this method is very practical and the results from PERT will be
have a reasonable amount of reliability.

260
Measure Of Certainty

The 3 estimates of time are such that

to ≤ t m ≤ t p

Therefore the range for the time estimate is t p − to .

The time taken by an activity in a project network follows

a distribution with a standard deviation of one sixth of the range,
approximately.

t p − to
i.e., The standard deviation = σ =
6
2
 t p − to 
and the variance = σ = 
2

 6 
The certainty of the time estimate of an activity can be analysed with
the help of the variance. The greater the variance, the more uncertainty in
the time estimate of an activity.

Problem 1

Two experts A and B examined an activity and arrived at the

following time estimates.

Time Estimate
Expert
to tm tp

A 4 6 8

B 4 7 10

Determine which expert is more certain about his estimates of

time:

Solution
2
 t −t 
Variance ( σ ) in time estimates =  p o 
2

 6 

261
 2
8−4 4
In the case of expert A, the variance =   =
 6  9
2
 10 − 4 
As regards expert B, the variance =   =1
 6 

So, the variance is less in the case of A. Hence, it is concluded that

the expert A is more certain about his estimates of time.

Determination of Project Completion Time in PERT

Problem 2

Find out the time required to complete the following project and
the critical activities:
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Predecessor
Activity time estimate time estimate time estimate
Activity
(to days) (tm days) (tp days)

A - 2 4 6

B A 3 6 9

C A 8 10 12

D B 9 12 15

E C 8 9 10

F D, E 16 21 26

G D, E 19 22 25

H F 2 5 8

I G 1 3 5

Solution

From the three time estimates t p , tm and to , calculate te for each

activity. We obtain the following table:

262
 Optimistic 4 x Most Pessimistic Time estimate
to+ 4tm
Activity time likely time time
+ tp to + 4 t m + t p
estimate (to) estimate estimate (tp) te =
6

A 2 16 6 24 4

B 3 24 9 36 6

C 8 40 12 60 10

D 9 48 15 72 12

E 8 36 10 54 9

F 16 84 26 126 21

G 19 88 25 132 22

H 2 20 8 30 5

I 1 12 5 18 3

Using the single time estimates of the activities, we get the

following network diagram for the project.

3 F 6
B
12 21
A 6 5
1 2 5 I
4 8
10 E
22 3
9
4 7

Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping
with the end node. There are four such paths for the given project. They
are as follows:

263
 Path I

A B D F H
1 2 3 5 6 8
4 6 12 21 5

Time for the path: 4+6+12+21+5 = 48 days.

Path II

A B D G I
1 2 3 5 7 8
4 6 12 6 6 3

Time for the path: 4+6+12+ 6+3 = 31 days.

Path III
A C E F H
1 2 4 5 6 8
4 10 3 9 21 5
7

Time for the path: 4+10+9+ 21+5 = 49 days.

Path IV
A C E G I
1 2 4 5 7 8
4 10 9 6 6 3

Time for the path: 4+10+9+ 6+3 = 32 days.

Compare the times for the four paths.
Maximum of {48, 31, 49, 32} = 49.
We see that Path III has the maximum time.
Therefore the critical path is Path III. i.e., 1 2 4 5 6 8.
The critical activities are A, C, E, F and H.
The non-critical activities are B, D, G and I.
Project time (Also called project length) = 49 days.

Problem 3

Find out the time, variance and standard deviation of the project
with the following time estimates in weeks:

264
 Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Activity time estimate time estimate time estimate
(to) (tm) (tp)

1-2 3 6 9

1-6 2 5 8

2-3 6 12 18

2-4 4 5 6

3-5 8 11 14

4-5 3 7 11

6-7 3 9 15

5-8 2 4 6

7-8 8 16 18

Solution

From the three time estimates t p , tm and to , calculate te for each

activity. We obtain the following table:

Optimistic
4 x Most Pessimistic
time to+ 4tm Time estimate
Activity likely time time estimate t + 4 tm + t p
stimate + tp te = o
estimate (tp) 6
(to)

1-2 3 24 9 36 6

1-6 2 20 8 30 5

2-3 6 48 18 72 12

2-4 4 20 6 30 5

3-5 8 44 14 66 11

265
4-5 3 28 11 42 7

6-7 3 36 15 54 9

5-8 2 16 6 24 4

7-8 8 64 18 90 15

With the single time estimates of the activities, we get the following
network diagram for the project.

C 3 F
11
12
2 5
A G
6 5 7 4
4
1
8
B H
5
E 15
6
7
9
Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping with the
end node. There are three such paths for the given project. They are as
follows:

Path I

A C F I
1 2 3 5 8
6 12 11 4

Time for the path: 6+12+11+4 = 33 weeks.

Path II

A D G I
1 2 4 5 8
6 5 3 7 4

Time for the path: 6+5+7+ 4= 22 weeks.

Path III

266
 B E H
1 6 7 8
5 9 3 15

Time for the path: 5+9+15 = 29 weeks.

Compare the times for the three paths.
Maximum of {33, 22, 29} = 33.
It is noticed that Path I has the maximum time.
Therefore the critical path is Path I. i.e., 1 2 3 5 8
The critical activities are A, C, F and I.
The non-critical activities are B, D, G and H.
Project time = 33 weeks.

Calculation of Standard Deviation and Variance for the Critical

Activities:

Pessimistic
Optimistic Most likely Standard
Critical time Range Variance 2
time estimate timeestimate deviation =  t −t 
Activity estimate (tp - to) t p − to σ 2 =  p o 
(to) (tm) σ=  6 
(tp) 6

A: 1 2 3 6 9 6 1 1

C: 2 3 6 12 18 12 2 4

F: 3 5 8 11 14 6 1 1

I: 5 8 2 4 6 4 2/3 4/9

Variance of project time (Also called Variance of project length) =

Sum of the variances for the critical activities = 1+4+1+ 4/9 = 58/9 Weeks.
Standard deviation of project time = √Variance = √58/9 = 2.54 weeks.

Problem 4

A project consists of seven activities with the following time

estimates. Find the probability that the project will be completed in 30
weeks or less.

267
 Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Predecessor
Activity time estimate time estimate time estimate
Activity
(to days) (tm days) (tp days)
A - 2 5 8
B A 2 3 4
C A 6 8 10
D A 2 4 6
E B 2 6 10
F C 6 7 8
G D, E, F 6 8 10
Solution

From the three time estimates , and , calculate for each activity.
The results are furnished in the following table:

Optimistic Pessimistic
4 x Most
time time to+ 4tm Time estimate
Activity likely time t + 4 tm + t p
estimate estimate + tp te = o
estimate 6
(to) (tp)

A 2 20 8 30 5
B 2 12 4 18 3
C 6 32 10 48 8
D 2 16 6 24 4
E 2 24 10 36 6
F 6 28 8 42 7
G 6 32 10 48 8

With the single time estimates of the activities, the following

network diagram is constructed for the project.

3
B
3 6
4
E
C 7
A 8 F G
1 2 D 6
5
5 4 8

268
 Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping
with the end node. There are three such paths for the given project. They
are as follows:

Path I

A B E G
1 2 3 5 6
5 3 4
6 8 8

Time for the path: 5+3+6+8 = 22 weeks.

Path II

A C F G
1 2 4 5 6
5 8 4 7 8 8

Time for the path: 5+8+7+ 8 = 28 weeks.

Path III

A D G
1 2 5 6
5 4 4 8

Time for the path: 5+4+8 = 17 weeks.

Compare the times for the three paths.

Maximum of {22, 28, 17} = 28.
It is noticed that Path II has the maximum time.
Therefore the critical path is Path II. i.e., 1 2 4 5 6.
The critical activities are A, C, F and G.
The non-critical activities are B, D and E.
Project time = 28 weeks.

Calculation of Standard Deviation and Variance for the

Critical Activities:

269
 Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Standard
Variance
Critical time time time Range deviation =
2
Activity estimate estimate estimate (tp -to)  t −t 
t p − to σ = p o 
2

(to) (tm) (tp) σ=  6 

6

A: 1 2 2 5 8 6 1 1

2 4
C: 2 4 6 8 10 4
3 9

F: 4 5 6 7 8 2 1 1
3 9

2 4
G: 5 6 6 8 10 4
3 9

Standard deviation of the critical path = √2 = 1.414

The standard normal variate is given by the formula

Given value of t − Expected value of t in the critical path

Z=
SD for the critical path

30 − 28
So we get Z = = 1.414
1.414

We refer to the Normal Probability Distribution Table.

Corresponding to Z = 1.414, we obtain the value of 0.4207
We get 0.5 + 0.4207 = 0. 9207

Therefore the required probability is 0.92

i.e., There is 92% chance that the project will be completed before 30 weeks.
In other words, the chance that it will be delayed beyond 30 weeks is 8%

270
Questions

1. Explain how time of an activity is estimated in PERT.

2. Explain the measure of certainty in PERT.
3. The estimates of time in weeks of the activities of a project are as
follows:

Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

Predecessor
Activity estimate of estimate of estimate of
Activity
time time time

A - 2 4 6

B A 8 11 20

C A 10 15 20

D B 12 18 24

E C 8 13 24

F C 4 7 16

G D,F 14 18 28

H E 10 12 14

I G,H 7 10 19

Determine the critical activities and the project completion time.

4. Draw the network diagram for the following project. Determine the
time, variance and standard deviation of the project.:

271
 Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Predecessor
Activity estimate of estimate of estimate of
Activity
time time time

A - 12 14 22

B - 16 17 24

C A 14 15 16

D A 13 18 23

E B 16 18 20

F D,E 13 14 21

G C,F 6 8 10

5. Consider the following project with the estimates of time in weeks:

Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

Predecessor
Activity estimate of estimate of estimate of
Activity
time time time

A - 2 4 6

B - 3 5 7

C A 5 6 13

D A 4 8 12

E B,C 5 6 13

F D,E 6 8 14

Find the probability that the project will be completed in 27 weeks.

272
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TABLE

Area Under Standard Normal Distribution

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359

0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753

0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141

0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517
0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549

0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852

0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177

1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319

1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441

1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545

1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633

1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706

1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767

2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817

273
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857

2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890

2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916

2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936

2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952

2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964

2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974

2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981

2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986

3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.4989 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990

****

274
 Lesson 6 - Earliest And Latest Times

Lesson Outline

ӹӹ The Concepts Of Earliest And Latest Times

ӹӹ The Concept Of Slack
ӹӹ Numerical Problems

Learning Objectives

ӹӹ After reading this lesson you should be able to

ӹӹ Understand the concepts of earliest and latest times
ӹӹ Understand the concept of slack
ӹӹ Calculate the earliest and latest times
ӹӹ Find out the slacks
ӹӹ Identify the critical activities
ӹӹ Carry out numerical problems

Introduction

A project manager has the responsibility to see that a project is

completed by the stipulated date, without delay. Attention is focused on
this aspect in what follows.

Key concepts

Certain key concepts are introduced below.

Earliest Times Of An Activity

We can consider (i) Earliest Start Time of an activity and (ii) Earliest
Finish Time of an activity.

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 Earliest Start Time of an activity is the earliest possible time of
starting that activity on the condition that all the other activities preceding
to it were began at the earliest possible times.

Earliest Finish Time of an activity is the earliest possible time of

completing that activity. It is given by the formula.

The Earliest Finish Time of an activity = The Earliest Start Time of

the activity + The estimated duration to carry out that activity.

LATEST TIMES OF AN ACTIVITY

We can consider (i) Latest Finish Time of an activity and (ii) Latest
Start Time of an activity.

Latest Finish Time of an activity is the latest possible time of

completing that activity on the condition that all the other activities
succeeding it are carried out as per the plan of the management and
without delaying the project beyond the stipulated time.

Latest Start Time of an activity is the latest possible time of

beginning that activity. It is given by the formula

Latest Start Time of an activity = The Latest Finish Time of the

activity - The estimated duration to carry out that activity.

TOTAL FLOAT OF AN ACTIVITY

Float seeks to measure how much delay is acceptable. It sets up a

control limit for delay.

The total float of an activity is the time by which that activity can
be delayed without delaying the whole project. It is given by the formula

Total Float of an Activity = Latest Finish Time of the activity -

Earliest Finish Time of that activity.

It is also given by the formula

Total Float of an Activity = Latest Start Time of the activity - Earliest

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Start Time of that activity.

Since a delay in a critical activity will delay the execution of the

whole project, the total float of a critical activity must be zero.

EXPECTED TIMES OF AN EVENT

An event occurs at a point of time. We can consider (i) Earliest

Expected Time of Occurrence of an event and (ii) Latest Allowable Time
of Occurrence an event.

The Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of an event is the earliest

possible time of expecting that event to happen on the condition that all
the preceding activities have been completed.

The Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of an event is the latest

possible time of expecting that event to happen without delaying the
project beyond the stipulated time.

Procudure To Find The Earliest Expected Time Of An Event

Step 1
Take the Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of the Start Event
as zero.

Step 2
For an event other than the Start Event, find out all paths in the
network which connect the Start node with the node representing the
event under consideration.

Step 3
In the “Forward Pass” (i.e., movement in the network from left to
right), find out the sum of the time durations of the activities in each path
identified in Step 2.

Step 4.
The path with the longest time in Step 3 gives the Earliest Expected
Time of Occurrence of the event
Working Rule for finding the earliest expected time of an event:

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 For an event under consideration, locate all the predecessor events
and identify their earliest expected times. With the earliest expected time
of each event, add the time duration of the activity connecting that event
to the event under consideration. The maximum among all these values
gives the Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of the event.

Procudure To Find The Latest Allowable Time Of An Event

We consider the “Backward Pass” (i.e., movement in the network

from right to left).

The latest allowable time of occurrence of the End Node must be

the time of completion of the project. Therefore it shall be equal to the
time of the critical path of the project.

Step 1
Identify the latest allowable time of occurrence of the End Node.

Step 2
For an event other than the End Event, find out all paths in the
network which connect the End node with the node representing the event
under consideration.

Step 3
In the “Backward Pass” (i.e., movement in the network from right
to left), subtract the time durations of the activities along each such path.

Step 4
The Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of the event is determined
by the path with the longest time in Step 3. In other words, the smallest
value of time obtained in Step 3 gives the Latest Allowable Time of
Occurrence of the event.

Working Rule for finding the latest allowable time of an event:

For an event under consideration, locate all the successor events

and identify their latest allowable times. From the latest allowable time of
each successor event, subtract the time duration of the activity that begins
with the event under consideration. The minimum among all these values

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gives the Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of the event.

Slack Of An Event

The allowable time gap for the occurrence of an event is known as

the slack of that event. It is given by the formula

Slack of an event = Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of the event -

Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of that event.

Slack Of An Activity

The slack of an activity is the float of the activity.

Problem 1

The following details are available regarding a project:

Predecessor
Activity Duration (Weeks)
Activity
A - 12
B A 7
C A 11
D A 8
E A 6
F B 10
G C 9
H D, F 14
I E, G 13
J H, I 16

Determine the earliest and latest times, the total float for each
activity, the critical activities and the project completion time.

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Solution

With the given data, we construct the following network diagram

for the project.

3
F
B 10
7 5 H
D
8 14
A
1 2 7 8
12
E I
6 16
11
6
C G
9
4

Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping
with the end node. There are four such paths for the given project. They
are as follows:

Path I

A B F H J
1 2 3 5 7 1
12 7 10 14 16

Time of the path = 12 + 7 + 10 + 14 + 16 = 59 weeks.

Path II

A D H J
1 2 5 14 7 16 8
12 8

Time of the path = 12 + 8 + 14 + 16 = 50 weeks.

Path III
A E I J
1 2 6 7 8
12 6 13 16

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Time of the path = 12 + 6 + 13 + 16 = 47 weeks.

Path IV

A C G I J
1 2 4 6 7 8
12 11 9 13 16

Time of the path = 12 + 11 + 9 + 13 + 16 = 61 weeks.

Compare the times for the four paths. Maximum of {51, 50, 47, 61} = 61.
We see that the maximum time of a path is 61 weeks.

Forward pass

Calculation of Earliest Expected Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Earliest Time of Occurrence of Node

1 0

2 Time for Node 1 + Time for Activity A = 0 + 12 = 12

3 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity B = 12 + 7 = 19

4 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity C = 12 + 11 = 23

Max {Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity D,

5
Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity F}
= Max {12 + 8, 19 + 10} = Max {20, 29} = 29

Max {Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity E,

6
Time for Node 4 + Time for Activity G}
= Max {12 + 6, 23 + 9} = Max {18, 32} = 32

Max {Time for Node 5 + Time for Activity H,

7
Time for Node 6 + Time for Activity I}
= Max {29 + 14, 32 + 13} = Max {43, 45} = 45

8 Time for Node 7 + Time for Activity J = 45 + 16 = 61

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 Using the above values, we obtain the Earliest Start Times of the
activities as follows:

Earliest Start Time

Activity
(Weeks)
A 0

B 12

C 12

D 12

E 12

F 19

G 23

H 29

I 32

J 45

Backward pass

Calculation of Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Node

8 Maximum time of a path in the network = 61

7 Time for Node 8 - Time for Activity J = 61 -16 = 45

6 Time for Node 7 - Time for Activity I = 45 -13 = 32

5 Time for Node 7 - Time for Activity H = 45 -14 = 31

4 Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity G = 32 - 9 = 23

3 Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity F = 31- 10 = 21

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 Min {Time for Node 3 - Time for Activity B,
Time for Node 4 - Time for Activity C,
Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity D,
2
Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity E}
= Min {21 - 7, 23 - 11, 31 - 8, 32 - 6}
= Min {14, 12, 23, 26} = 12

1 Time for Node 2 - Time for Activity A = 12- 12 = 0

Using the above values, we obtain the Latest Finish Times of the
activities as follows:

Latest Finish Time

Activity
(Weeks)

J 61

I 45

H 45

G 32

F 31

E 32

D 31

C 23

B 21

A 12

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Calculation of Total Float for each activity:

Latest
Earliest Earliest Latest Total Float = Latest
Duration
Activity Start Finish Start Finish Time - Earliest
(Weeks) Finish
Time Time Time Finish Time
Time
A 12 0 12 0 12 0

B 7 12 19 14 21 2

C 11 12 23 12 23 0

D 8 12 20 23 31 11

E 6 12 18 26 32 14

F 10 19 29 21 31 2

G 9 23 32 23 32 0

H 14 29 43 31 45 2

I 13 32 45 32 45 0

J 16 45 61 45 61 0

The activities with total float = 0 are A, C, G, I and J. They are the
critical activities.
Project completion time = 61 weeks.

Problem 2

The following are the details of the activities in a project:

Predecessor Duration
Activity
Activity (Weeks)

A - 15

B A 17

C A 21

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 D B 19

E B 22

F C, D 18

G E, F 15

Calculate the earliest and latest times, the total float for each
activity and the project completion time.

Solution

The following network diagram is obtained for the given project.

3
B G
15
A 17 D 19
1 2 5 6
15
21 F
C 18
4

Consider the paths, beginning with the start node and stopping
with the end node. There are three such paths for the given project. They
are as follows:

Path I

A B E G
1 2 3 5 6
15 17 22 15

Time of the path = 15 + 17 + 22 + 15 = 69 weeks.

Path II

A B D F G
1 2 3 4 5 6
15 17 19 18 15

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Time of the path = 15 + 17 + 19 + 18 + 15 = 84 weeks.

Path III

A C F G
1 2 4 5 6
15 21 18 15

Time of the path = 15 + 21 + 18 + 15 = 69 weeks.

Compare the times for the three paths. Maximum of {69, 84, 69} = 84. We
see that the maximum time of a path is 84 weeks.

Forward pass

Calculation of Earliest Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Earliest Time of Occurrence of Node

1 0

2 Time for Node 1 + Time for Activity A = 0 + 15 = 15

3 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity B = 15 + 17 = 32

Max {Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity C,

4 Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity D}
= Max {15 + 21, 32 + 19} = Max {36, 51} = 51

Max {Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity E,

5 Time for Node 4 + Time for Activity F}
= Max {32 + 22, 51 + 18} = Max {54, 69} = 69

6 Time for Node 5 + Time for Activity G = 69 + 15 = 84

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Calculation of Earliest Time for Activities

Earliest Start Time

Activity
(Weeks)

A 0

B 15

C 15

D 32

E 32

F 51

G 69

Backward pass

Calculation of the Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Node

6 Maximum time of a path in the network = 84

5 Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity G = 84 -15 = 69

4 Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity F = 69 - 18 = 51

Min {Time for Node 4 - Time for Activity D,

3 Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity E}
= Min {51 - 19, 69 - 22} = Min {32, 47} = 32

Min {Time for Node 3 - Time for Activity B,

2 Time for Node 4 - Time for Activity C}
= Min {32 - 17, 51 - 21} = Min {15, 30} = 15

1 Time for Node 2 - Time for Activity A = 15 - 15 = 0

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 Calculation of the Latest Finish Times of the activities

Latest Finish Time

Activity
(Weeks)
G 84

F 69

E 69

D 51
C 51

B 32

A 15

Calculation of Total Float for each activity:

Earliest Earliest Latest Latest Total Float = Latest

Duration
Activity Start Finish Start Finish Finish Time - Earliest
(Weeks)
Time Time Time Time Finish Time

A 15 0 15 0 15 0

B 17 15 32 15 32 0

C 21 15 36 30 51 15

D 19 32 51 32 51 0

E 22 32 54 47 69 15

F 18 51 69 51 69 0

G 15 69 84 69 84 0

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 The activities with total float = 0 are A, B, D, F and G. They are the
critical activities.
Project completion time = 84 weeks.

Problem 3

Consider a project with the following details:

Name of Predecessor Duration

Activity Activity (Weeks)

A - 8

B A 13

C A 9

D A 12

E B 14

F B 8

G D 7

H C, F, G 12

I C, F, G 9

J E, H 10

K I, J 7

Determine the earliest and latest times, the total float for each
activity, the critical activities, the slacks of the events and the project
completion time.

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Solution

The following network diagram is got for the given project:

E
3 6
14
B 8 H 10
13 F 12 J

A C I K 8
1 2 5 7
8 9 9 7
12 G
D 7
4

Path I

A B E J K
1 2 3 6 7 8
8 13 14 10 7

Time of the path = 8 + 13 + 14 + 10 + 7 = 52 weeks.

Path II

A B F H J K
1 2 3 5 6 7 8
8 13 8 12 10 7

Time of the path = 8 + 13 + 8 + 12 + 10 + 7 = 58 weeks.

Path III

A B F I K
1 2 3 5 7 8
8 3 8 9 7

Time of the path = 8 + 13 + 8 + 9 + 7 = 45 weeks.

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Path IV

A C H J K
1 2 5 6 7 8
8 9 12 5 10 7

Time of the path = 8 + 9 + 12 + 10 + 7 = 46 weeks.

Path V

A C I K
1 2 5 7 8
8 9 5 9 7 6

Time of the path = 8 + 9 + 9 + 7 = 33 weeks.

Path VI

A D G H J K
1 2 4 5 6 7 7 8
8 12 7 12 10

Time of the path = 8 + 12 + 7 + 12 + 10 + 7 = 56 weeks.

Path VII

A D G I K
1 2 4 5 7 8
8 12 7 9 7

Time of the path = 8 + 12 + 7 + 9 + 7 = 43 weeks.

Compare the times for the three paths. Maximum of {52, 58, 45, 46, 33, 56,
43} = 58.
We see that the maximum time of a path is 58 weeks.

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Forward pass

Calculation of Earliest Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Earliest Time of Occurrence of Node

1 0

2 Time for Node 1 + Time for Activity A = 0 + 8 = 8

3 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity B = 8 + 13 = 21

4 Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity D = 8+ 12 = 20

Max {Time for Node 2 + Time for Activity C,

Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity F,
5
Time for Node 4 + Time for Activity G}
= Max { 8 + 9, 21 + 8 , 20 + 7 } = Max {17, 29, 27} = 29

Max {Time for Node 3 + Time for Activity E,

6 Time for Node 5 + Time for Activity H}
= Max {21 + 14 , 29 + 12} = Max {35, 41} = 41

Max {Time for Node 5 + Time for Activity I,

7 Time for Node 6 + Time for Activity J}
= Max {29 + 9, 41 + 10} = Max {38, 51} = 51

8 Time for Node 7 + Time for Activity J = 51+ 7 = 58

Earliest Start Times of the activities

Earliest Start Time

Activity
(Weeks)

A 0

B 8

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 C 8

D 8

E 21

F 21

G 20

H 29

I 29

J 41

K 51

Backward pass

Calculation of Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Events

Node Latest Allowable Time of Occurrence of Node

8 Maximum time of a path in the network = 58

7 Time for Node 8 - Time for Activity K = 58 -7 = 51

6 Time for Node 7 - Time for Activity J = 51 -10 = 41

Min {Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity H,

5 Time for Node 7 - Time for Activity I}
= Min {41 - 12, 51 - 9} = Min {29, 42} = 29

4 Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity G = 29 - 7 = 22

Min {Time for Node 5 - Time for Activity F,

3 Time for Node 6 - Time for Activity E}
= Min {29 - 8, 41 - 14} = Min {21, 27} = 21

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 Min {Time for Node 3 - Time for Activity B, Time for Node 4 -
Time for Activity D,
2
= Min {21 - 13, 22 - 12, 29 - 9}
= Min {8, 10, 20} = 8

1 Time for Node 2 - Time for Activity A = 8 - 8 = 0

Latest Finish Times of the activities

Latest Finish Time

Activity
(Weeks)

K 58

J 51

I 51

41
H

G 29

29
F

E 41

22
D

C 29

21
B

A 8

Calculation of Total Float for each activity:

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