Capital Budgeting
Capital Budgeting
CHAPTER OVERVIEW
This chapter continues the discussion of capital budgeting begun in the preceding chapter, which
established the basic principles of determining relevant cash flows. Both the sophisticated (net present
value and the internal rate of return) and unsophisticated (average rate of return and payback period)
capital budgeting techniques are presented. Discussion centers on the calculation and evaluation of the
NPV and IRR in investment decisions, with and without a capital rationing constraint.
Capital budgeting is the process of evaluating and selecting long-term investments that are consistent
with the firm’s goal of maximizing owners’ wealth. Long-term investments represent sizable outlays of
funds that commit a firm to some course of action. Consequently, the firm needs procedures to analyze
and select its long-term investments.
Capital Budgeting Techniques/Tools
Techniques
Discounting
Non-discounting/Conventional Techniques
Techniques
PI
NPV
PBP IRR
ARR
Payback Period
The payback period is the amount of time required for the firm to recover its initial investment in a
project, as calculated from cash inflows. In the case of an annuity (such as the Bennett Company’s
project A), the payback period can be found by dividing the initial investment by the annual cash inflow.
For a mixed stream of cash inflows (such as project B), the yearly cash inflows must be accumulated until
the initial investment is recovered. Although popular, the payback period is generally viewed as an
unsophisticated capital budgeting technique, because it does not explicitly consider the time value of
money.
Formula
InitailIn Investment
In case of annuity, PBP=
CF
Decision Criteria:
When the payback period is used to make accept–reject decisions, the following decision criteria apply:
If the payback period is less than the maximum acceptable payback period, accept the project.
If the payback period is greater than the maximum acceptable payback period, reject the
project.
Example-1
1 3000 10,000
2 3000
3.3Years
So, PBP= 3000
3 3000
4 3000
Example-2
Solution,
PBP= Year beforet full re cov ery of initial investment Unrevored cos t at the start of re cov ery period
CF during re cov ery period
10,000 5,000
=1 7,000
1.71 Years
Personal Finance Example:
Seema Mehdi is considering investing $20,000 to obtain a 5% interest in a rental property. Her good
friend and real estate agent, Akbar Ahmed, put the deal together and he conservatively estimates that
Seema should receive between $4,000 and $6,000 per year in cash from her 5% interest in the property.
The deal is structured in a way that forces all investors to maintain their investment in the property for
at least 10 years. Seema expects to remain in the 25% income-tax bracket for quite a while. To be
acceptable, Seema requires the investment to pay itself back in terms of after-tax cash flows in less than
7 years.
Seema’s calculation of the payback period on this deal begins with calculation of the range of annual
after-tax cash flow:
After-tax cash flow = (1 - tax rate) Pre-tax cash flow
Because Seema’s proposed rental property investment will pay itself back between 4.44 and 6.67 years,
which is a range below her maximum payback of 7 years, the investment is acceptable.
Merits:
I. Payback period considers the cash flows rather than accounting profits.
Accounting profits can be manipulated by window dressing but CFs can’t be
manipulated by the management of the firm.
II. By measuring how quickly the firm recovers its initial investment, the payback
period also gives an implicit consideration to the time value of money.
III. Its gives information about the firm’s liquidity. Shorter the PBP higher the
liquidity and longer the PBP lesser the liquidity of the firm.
IV. It is easy to calculate, large firms use PBP to evaluate small projects and small
firms use PBP to evaluate most projects because of its easiness.
Demerits:
I. Payback period does not consider the cash flows which occur after the recovery
of the initial investment.
II. Payback period ignores the time value of money and it gives equal
weights/emphasis on all cash flows before the cut-off-date/recovery period. We
can illustrate it through following example-
Cash Flows
Initial Investment Year-1 Year-2
Project
A 1000 500 500
B 1000 700 300
The sum of cash flows of both projects is Tk. 10,000 but project B is preferable because larger cash flow
is occurred in the earlier year and it can be reinvested in any project which may earn further return for
the firm but PBP technique does not consider the timing of cash flows.
III. Maximum acceptable payback period is totally depend on the management that
depends on variety of criteria which may not other principles of usage of
money. It varies with one to another.
IV. The major weakness of the payback period is that the appropriate payback
period is merely a subjectively determined number. It cannot be specified in
light of the wealth maximization goal because it is not based on discounting
cash flows to determine whether they add to the firm’s value.
Discounted Payback Period
The discounted payback period is the amount time that it takes to recover the cost of a project by
adding positive discounted cash flow coming from the projects.
Example
The average rate of return or accounting rate return (ARR) is the rate of return that is calculated by
taking the total cash inflows over the life-time of the investment and dividing it by the number of years
of the investment.
ARR is based on the accounting information rather than cash flows. The average rate return does not
guarantee that the cash inflows are the same in a given year; it simply guarantees that the return
averages out to the average rate of return.
Total profit
Average Profit After tax=
Number of Years
Investment SalvageValue
Average Investment
2
Decision Criteria
If the ARR is higher than the minimum desired or projected ARR, then the project will be
accepted.
If the ARR is less than the minimum desired or projected ARR, then the project will be rejected.
Expected rate of return should always greater than required rate of return to accept any project. The
required rate return sometimes called the cost of capital/hurdle rate/opportunity cost rate/cost of fund
etc.
Merits
I. The most favorable attribute of the ARR is its easy calculation and simple to
understand.
II. Provides the same result nearly as IRR. ARR may have acceptance to IRR under
some criteria-
c. No change in net working capital, in both the cases of old machine and
new machine.
III. Finally, the total benefits associated with the project are taken into account
while calculating ARR.
Demerits:
IV. It ignores the project’s life. We can easily understand it through the following
example-
20000
ARR A 40%
50000
ARRB 40%
Both are same in ARR but do not have the same effectiveness.
Problem
n= 4 Years 1 7,000
2 8,000
Salvage Value=2,000 3 10,000
Solution
Depreciable Cost
Yearly depreciation=
No. of ExpextedYears
20,000 2,000
4
Tk . 4,500
NPV is a way of comparing the value of money now with the value of money in future. Because net
present value (NPV) gives explicit consideration to the time value of money.
The method used by most large companies to evaluate investment projects is net present value (NPV).
The intuition behind the NPV method is simple. When firms make investments, they are spending
money that they obtained, in one form or another, from investors. Investors expect a return on the
money that they give to firms, so a firm should undertake an investment only if the present value of the
cash flow that the investment generates is greater than the cost of making the investment in the first
place. Because the NPV method takes into account the time value of investors’ money, it is a more
sophisticated capital budgeting technique than the payback rule.
When NPV is used, both inflows and outflows are measured in terms of present dollars. For a project
that has cash outflows beyond the initial investment, the net present value of a project would be found
by subtracting the present value of outflow
ws from the present value of inflows.
Formula of NPV
In Case of Annuity:
ICO
n
NPV i 1
CF 1(1i ) n
i
n
CF
NPV ICO
i 1 (1 i ) n
CF1 CF2 CFn
............. ICO
(1 i ) (1 i ) (1 i ) n
1 2
Or , CF1 (1 i ) 1 CF2 (1 i ) 2 ............... CFn (1 i ) n ICO
In Case of Perpetuity
CF
NPV ICO
Kg g= growth rate
K= Cost of capital
CF
Or , NPV ICO K-g=i-g
i
Decision Criteria
When NPV is used to make accept–reject decisions, the decision criteria are as follows:
We can illustrate the net present value (NPV) approach by using the Bennett Company data presented in
Table 10.1. If the firm has a 10% cost of capital, the net present values for projects A (an annuity) and B
(a mixed stream) can be calculated as shown on the time lines in Figure 10.2.
Calculation as shown on the time lines in Figure 10.2. These calculations result in net present values for
projects A and B of $11,071 and $10,924, respectively. Both projects are acceptable, because the net
present value of each is greater than $0. If the projects were being ranked, however, project A would be
considered superior to B, because it has a higher net present value than that of B ($11,071 versus
$10,924).
What is the rationale of the positive NPV?
If the NPV is greater than $0, the firm will earn a return greater than its cost of capital. Such action
should increase the market value of the firm, and therefore the wealth of its owners by an amount equal
to the NPV.
The project’s return will be unable to earn the cost of capital. If the financial manager accepts the
project, the firm will lose the market value by the amount equal to the negative NPV.
What do you mean by NPV=Tk. 0? What should the financial manager do in case of
NPV=Tk. 0?
NPV =Tk. 0 means that only the project’s cash flows are just sufficient to repay the initial investment. It
means the firm will get no profit or bear no losses.
The financial managers can marginally accepts the projects if there no alternative to them. Because
every fund of an organization has an idle cost if the fund remain idle. However the market value of the
firm will remain unchanged through accepting the projects with NPV=Tk.0.
But in case of mutually exclusive projects, the firm can go for the next projects that provide higher NPV.
In case of independent project the financial manager can accept the project if the firm has unlimited
funds. Because when the project is independence, different projects have different goals. That is the
cash flows of the independent projects are totally different from one another. If a financial manager
accepts an independent project, it does not mean that it is impossible to accept another project in case
of unlimited fund.
flows from a project with the project’s initial cash outlay. It is the rate of return that the firm will earn if
it invests in the project and receives the given cash inflows. Mathematically, the IRR is the value of r in
Equation 10.1 that causes NPV to equal $0.
Formula of IRR
IRR NPV 0
n
CFn
NPV ICO
i 1 (1 i ) n
n
CFn
or , 0 (1 IRR)
i 1
n
ICO
n
CFn
or , ICO
i 1 (1 IRR) n
CF1 CF2 CFn
or , ................... ICO
(1 IRR)1 (1 IRR) 2 (1 IRR) n
Decision Criteria
When IRR is used to make accept–reject decisions, the decision criteria are as follows:
• If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, accept the project.
• If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, reject the project.
The criteria guarantee that the firm will earn at least its required rate of return. Such an outcome should
increase the market value of the firm and therefore the wealth of the owners.
We can demonstrate the internal rate of return (IRR) approach by using the Bennett Company data
presented in Table 10.1. Figure 10.3 uses time lines to depict the framework for finding the IRRs for
Bennett’s projects A and B. We can see in the figure that the IRR is the unknown discount rate that
causes the NPV to equal $0.
Comparing the IRRs of projects A and B given in Figure 10.3 to Bennett Company’s 10% cost of capital,
we can see that both projects are acceptable because
Comparing the two projects’ IRRs, we would prefer project B over project A because IRRB = 21.7% >
IRRA = 19.9%. If these projects are mutually exclusive, meaning that we can choose one project or the
other but not both, the IRR decision technique would recommend project B.
Solution:
Fake Payback Period = 10,000
2,500
=4
Or,
PVIFAk %,10 years 10,000 2,500
4
Now,
PVIFA20%,10 yrs. = 401925
PVlFA24%,10 yrs. = 3.6819
Here, PVCFat 20% 2500 4.1925 or ,
2500 1 1.20 10
10481
.20
So,
IRR LR ( PV atNPVat
LR PV at HR ) ( HR LR )
LR
20 10481
104819205 ( 24 20)
10000
20 1276
481
4
21.5
Answer: IRR of the project is 21.5 % which is greater than the cost of capital (12%), so the project can be
accepted.
Solution
Project – A
Average annuity =
Fake PBP (PVIFA) = 1200
533 2.25
PV @ 15% =
= 1313 Tk.
PV @ 16% =
= 1298 Tk.
So, IRR = 15 +
= 22.53
= 23%
Project – B
Fake annuity =
Fake PBP (PVIFA) =
PV @ 20% = 1125
PV @ 24% = 1037
So,
IRR =
As the cost of capital of the firm is 10% both of the project A and B are acceptable because IIR of both
projects are higher than its cost of capital. If A and B are mutually exclusive projects then Project A
should be accepted as its IRR is greater than project B (23%>17%).
Pros:
I. The IRR method considers the time value of money.
II. It is comparatively easier to calculate and understand.
III. The IRR method of capital budgeting technique considers all of cash flows associated with the
projects.
IV. It is comparable with interest rate which help the financial manager to take decision wether the
projects will be accepted or not.
V. The IRR technique also considers the salvage value of the assets.
Cons:
I. The IRR technique does not tell how much value of the firm will increase by accepting the
project.
II. Whether multiple IRR is exists the technique may fail to give the proper result.
III. For mutually exclusive project IRR technique has comparatively more time more and monetary
cost expensive. Sometimes have to use computer program to calculate proper result.
CFA 1(1i ) n
Or, PI = [ CF1
CF2
...................
CFn
] ICO
(1 IRR)1 (1 IRR) 2 (1 IRR) n
Decision Criteria:
PI >1; Accept the project
PI <1; Reject the project
Pros
I. Profitability technique considers the time value o money.
II. Profitability Index also considers all cash flows.
III. PI also considers the time and amount of cash flows.
Cons
I. If you accept the project, this technique only tell you only about incase or decrease of value o
the firm but not tell you how much value will be added.
II. To calculate the PI it is needed to determine discount rate which is not easy.
III. It is complex method.
If the Cash flow is conventional and the project is independent, then the NPV, IRR and PI will give the
same accept-reject decision.
Solution:
We know,
NPV
CF 1 (1 i ) n
ICO
i
3,000 1 (1 i ) 5
10,000
.10
Tk .1372
Again,
IRR LR NPVat LR
( PV at LR PV at HR ) ( HR LR )
Now,
Discount Factor ICO
CF 10
3, 000 3.3
, 000
So,
IRR 15 1005610000
(100569822) (16 15)
15%
Now, we know,
CF A 1 (1 i ) n
PVA i
30001 (1 .10 ) 5
PI Pr esent Value of Cash inf lows
Pr esent value of cash outf lows i
11372 Tk .11,372
10000
1.13
Comment: All the techniques suggest us to accept the project as NPV>0; IRR>COC; and PI>1. That is all
of three techniques give us same accept-reject decisions with conventional cash flow pattern and with
independent project.
Ranking Conflicts:
Ranking different investment opportunities is an important consideration when projects are mutually
exclusive or when capital rationing is necessary. When projects are mutually exclusive, ranking enables
the firm to determine which project is best from a financial standpoint. When capital rationing is
necessary, ranking projects will provide a logical starting point for determining which group of projects
to accept. As we’ll see, conflicting rankings using NPV and IRR result from differences in the
reinvestment rate assumption, the timing of each project’s cash flows, and the magnitude of the initial
investment.
If projects are ranked differently using these methods, the conflict in ranking will be due to one or a
combination of the following three project differences.
I. Scale of investment differences
II. Differences in CF pattern or timing of CFs
III. Differences in project’s life
Project-A
ICO CF
(1 IRR) n
NPV CF (1 i ) n ICO
400(1 .10) 2 100
or ,100 400
(1 IRR) 2 Tk . 231
or ,1 IRR 4 CF (1 i ) n
PI ICO
or , IRR 1 400 (1.10 ) 2
100
100% 3.31
Project-B
NPV CF (1 i ) n ICO
ICO CF
(1 IRR) n
156250(1 .10) 2 100000
or ,100000 156250
(1 IRR) 2 Tk . 29132
or , (1 IRR) 2 156250
100000
CF (1 i ) n
or ,1 IRR 1.5625 PI ICO
Project – A
Average annuity =
1200
Fake PBP = 2.25
533
PV @ 15% =
= 1313 Tk.
PV @ 16% =
= 1298 Tk.
So, IRR = 15 +
= 22.53
= 23%
NPV = 1000(1.10) 1 500(1.10) 2 100(1.10) 3 1200
= 198 tk.
PI
Project – B
Fake annuity =
Fake PBP =
PV @ 20% = 1125
PV @ 24% = 1037
IRR =
NPV =
= 198 tk.
PI =
Here, NPV of two projects at different discount rates are shown below:
DR NPV - A NPV – B
Cross rate: cross rate of cost of
0% 400 580
capital rate at which NPVs of
5% 292 372
10% 198 198 two or more projects are
17% 82 0 similar (here 10%).
23% 0 -142
We can plot this information in NPV profile of these two projects to understand easily:
NPV Profile
Project – A
NPV =
= 1536 tk.
PI = =
Project – B
ICO = or,
NPV =
= 818 tk.
PI = =
Once again here we see a conflict in project ranking among the alternative methods. By now we can
make the decision of accepting the project – A based on net present value.
To see that the NPV method will lead to the proper rankings even when faced with mutually exclusive
projects, possessing unequal lives, we can compare the projects are of a common termination date. To
do so, we assume that the shorter lived projects cash flows are reinvested up to the termination date of
the longer lived project at firms cost of capital. Then –
Because projects A and B each require the same initial cash outlay, we can compare these two projects
on the basis of terminal values. Notice that, on this basis project-A, the project with higher NPV, is
preferred because its terminal values of taka 3375 is higher than the tk. 2420 terminal value of the
project B. so project A is preferred over project B because it has a positive NPV and adds value tk. 718
(1536 – 818) more in present value to the firm.
Problem: The Taxi Corporation is considering two mutually exclusive projects, which information is as
follows-
Solution:
Projects – X
NPV =
= 92.59 Tk.
IRR:
Projects – Y
NPV =
= 115 Tk.
IRR:
= .14 = 14%
Here we should compare the terminal cash flow of the project X with that of the project Y. if the project
X’s cash flows is reinvested at the firms cost of capital then we find the terminal value of cost of the cash
flows. That is
= and NPV remain same that is tk. 93. So here we should accept project
Y because it will maximize firms wealth more than project X by taka 22(115 – 93).
In this case, the cash flow pattern is nonconventional and gives than one IRR. To get this we have to
convert the multiple IRR into one IRR of these cash flows:-
ICO =
Comment: Here IRR is less than cost of capital 8%. So, we should reject the project.
Now, ICO =
In this case, if the financial manager accepts the projects based PI, and then project A, B, and C will be
accepted.
i.e.,
Projects ICO
A 60000
B 20000
C 15000
Total =95,000
(that means 5000 tk. is remaining in hand)
In this case, the financial manager should accept the next two best project that is project D and E.
because their NPV is higher by (6500 – 6000) = 500 tk.
And, if the firm in debt retirement then the financial manager can-
1) Keeps it idle.
2) Provide the fund as dividend to the shareholders.
3) Use the fund in debt retirement if the financial manager accepts the project according
to PI. It depends upon the firm’s managers.
Example under problem-2:
Payback Period: Choosing between two projects with acceptable payback periods Shell Camping
Gear, Inc., is considering two mutually exclusive projects. Each requires an initial investment of
$100,000. John Shell, president of the company, has set a maximum payback period of 4 years. The
after-tax cash inflows associated with each project are shown in the following table:
Cash Inflows
Year Project-A Project-B
1 Tk. 10,000 Tk. 40,000
2 20,000 30,000
3 30,000 20,000
4 40,000 10,000
5 20,000 20,000