DBS Group Research

US EQUITY RESEARCH
26 May 2025

Estee Lauder Companies Analysts

Cheria Widjaja | indonesiaresearch@dbs.com
Challenges persist amid weak sentiment and sluggish demand Andy Sim | groupresearch@dbs.com
Bryan Soegianto | indonesiaresearch@dbs.com
Company Overview
Key Financial Data
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufacturers, markets and sells skin care, makeup,
fragrance and hair care products. The Company's merchandises are sold in approximately 150
Bloomberg Ticker EL US
countries and territories under various renowned brands, including Estee Lauder, Aramis,
Clinique, Lab Series, Origins, M.A.C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, Bumble and Sector Consumer Staples
bumble, Darphin, Smashbox, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frederic Malle, GLAMGLOW, Kilian Paris, Share Price (USD) 63.69
Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, DECIEM and The Ordinary. It also offers fragrances, cosmetics and/or related
DBS Rating HOLD
products under the brands of Tom Ford, Dr. Andrew Weil, and AERIN.
12-mth Target Price (USD) 62.0
Investment Overview
Market Cap (USDbn) 22.9
Sales outlook remains uncertain, particularly in Asia travel retail. EL's sales performance in
Volume (mn shares) 2.5
2H25 is expected to remain weak, pressured by the slower-than-anticipated recovery of the
prestige beauty market, a challenging retail environment in Asia travel retail, and subdued Free float (%) 88.9
consumer sentiment in mainland China, Korea, and Hong Kong SAR. In addition, soft demand Dividend yield (%) 3.2
in North America—driven by intense competition, a slowdown in brick-and-mortar channels,
Net Debt to Equity (%) 121.1
and moderating growth in the prestige beauty industry—further weighs on the outlook.
Sales declines in key markets may hinder the company’s Profit Recovery and Growth Plan Fwd. P/E (x) 43.2
(PRGP) in restoring profitability. EL’s ongoing PRGP and restructuring programme aim to P/Book (x) 5.3
restore profitability from FY25F through FY27F. Key initiatives include: (i) adopting a more
ROE (%) 17.3
competitive procurement approach, (ii) enhancing supply chain efficiencies, (iii) leveraging AI
for improved demand forecasting, production planning, and inventory management, and (iv) Closing Price as of 22 May 2025
outsourcing select services to global partners. However, we expect sales declines in key Source: Bloomberg, DBSVI
markets to drive operating deleverage, offsetting the benefits of the PRGP and weighing on
FY25F earnings.
Indexed Share Price vs Composite Index Performance
EL's Beauty Reimagined strategic vision is set to drive long-term growth. The initiative aims to
restore sustainable sales growth and achieve a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin
in the coming years. Key focus areas include streamlining operations to be leaner, faster, and
more agile in adapting to evolving consumer trends, expanding consumer reach, accelerating
innovation, and increasing consumer-facing investments to enhance growth and profitability.
Additionally, EL is ramping up investments in digital capabilities, strengthening its social media
presence, and shifting its distribution mix from traditional department stores to high-growth
channels such as specialty retailers and online platforms, particularly in the U.S., to counter
market share losses. These efforts are expected to support sales recovery across markets and
categories, especially if global prestige beauty growth accelerates in FY26F, on provision of
tariffs resolution.
Source: Bloomberg
Sales outlook remains subdued in 2H25; maintain HOLD call with a TP of USD62. We maintain
our HOLD rating for EL due to its weak sales outlook for 2H25 with 4Q25 projected to see
stronger decline compared to recently reported 3Q25, primary driven by challenges in Asia
travel retail. Headline earnings may also remain impacted by restructuring charges and
impairments. However, EL remains committed to implementing its strategy reset, including the
PRGP, to achieve sustainable, long-term organic sales growth and rebuild operating
profitability by FY26F on provision that there is “meaningful resolution” to the recently enacted
tariffs. On the back of lowered consensus earnings, our TP is lowered to USD62 is based on a
34x P/E ratio applied to the average EPS for the fiscal years ending June 2025 and 2026. This
reflects -0.5SD from its five-year historical mean P/E ratio, incorporating the uncertain outlook
and aligning more closely with its global beauty peers. Until there is more certainty regarding
EL’s turnaround, a firmer footing on its outlook and resolution of tariffs uncertainty, we believe
the stock could trade rangebound despite the recent decline in share price.
Risks
Key downside risks: prolonged weakness in China's growth trajectory, extended headwinds
from Asia travel retail, persistent market share erosion in key markets, deteriorating
macroeconomic conditions, escalating competition, and adverse foreign exchange
fluctuations.

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Financial Summary

FY Dec (USDmn) FY2022(A) FY2023(A) FY2024(A) FY2025(F) FY2026(F)

Sales 17,741 15,937 15,609 14,313 14,661
% y/y 9.3 (10.2) (2.1) (8.3) 2.6
Gross Profit 13,443 11,376 11,186 10,539 10,895
% y/y 8.4 (15.4) (1.7) (5.7) 3.4
EBITDA 4,227 2,567 2,413 1,928 2,218
% y/y 13.5 (39.3) (6.0) (20.5) 15.1
Net Profit 2,642 1,248 935.0 534.0 789.7
% y/y 11.2 (52.8) (25.1) (42.9) 48.1
FCF 2,000 728.0 1,441 615.1 857.0
% y/y (33.2) (63.6) 97.9 (57.4) 48.3
CAPEX 1,040 1,003 919.0 593.1 687.2
% y/y 63.3 (3.6) (8.4) (35.6) 16.6

EBITDA Margin % 23.8 16.1 15.5 13.5 15.1

Net Margin % 14.9 7.8 6.0 3.7 5.4
ROA (%) 12.3 5.6 4.1 2.6 4.0
ROE (%) 39.5 19.4 15.9 10.9 18.0
Tax Rate % 21.3 26.8 31.4 37.2 31.6
Source: Visible Alpha

Valuation Metrics

FY Dec FY2022(A) FY2023(A) FY2024(A) FY2025(F) FY2026(F)

P/E 35.2 56.8 41.1 43.0 29.0
P/B 16.6 12.7 7.2 5.1 5.0
Dividend Yield 0.9 1.3 2.5 2.5 2.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.7 29.2 18.7 15.4 13.4
FCF Yield % 2.2 1.0 3.8 2.7 3.7
Source: Visible Alpha

Credit & Cashflow Metrics

FY Dec FY2022(A) FY2023(A) FY2024(A) FY2025(F) FY2026(F)

Debt / Equity 118.9 158.5 184.9 191.3 185.8
Net Debt / Equity 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
Debt / Assets 36.6 43.4 45.3 42.2 41.3
Net Debt / Assets 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
EBITDA / Int Exp 25.3 10.1 6.4 5.4 6.4
ST Debt / Total Debt 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Debt / EBITDA 1.8 3.2 3.2 4.4 3.8
[Cash + CFO] / ST Debt 11.1 4.3 6.7 10.1 10.6
Receivables Days 33.5 33.3 40.4 39.8 40.2
Days Payable 37.5 38.2 33.7 31.6 31.1
Inventory Days 60.1 68.2 50.9 48.7 47.5
Source: Visible Alpha

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Target Price & Ratings History

Source: DBSVI
Analysts: Cheria Widjaja
Andy Sim
Bryan Soegianto

DBS Group Research recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
*Share price appreciation + dividends

Sources for all charts and tables are DBSVI unless otherwise specified.

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