Mathematics A (H230, H240)

203Probability
exam builder
ocr
Please note that you may see slight differences between
this paper and the original.
Duration: Not set
Candidates answer on the Question paper.

OCR supplied materials:

Additional resources may be supplied with this paper.

Other materials required:

• Pencil
• Ruler (cm/mm)

Candidate Candidate

forename surname

Centre number Candidate number

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
• Write your name, centre number and candidate number in the boxes above. Please write clearly and in capital letters.
• Use black ink. HB pencil may be used for graphs and diagrams only.
• Answer all the questions, unless your teacher tells you otherwise.
• Read each question carefully. Make sure you know what you have to do before starting your answer.
• Where space is provided below the question, please write your answer there.
• You may use additional paper, or a specific Answer sheet if one is provided, but you must clearly show your candidate
number, centre number and question number(s).

INFORMATION FOR CANDIDATES

• The quality of written communication is assessed in questions marked with either a pencil or an asterisk. In History and
Geography a Quality of extended response question is marked with an asterisk, while a pencil is used for questions in
which Spelling, punctuation and grammar and the use of specialist terminology is assessed.
• The number of marks is given in brackets [ ] at the end of each question or part question.
• The total number of marks for this paper is 308.
• The total number of marks may take into account some 'either/or' question choices.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 1 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 1(a) Andy and Bev are playing a game.

• The game consists of three points.

• On each point, P(Andy wins) = 0.4 and P(Bev wins) = 0.6.
• If one player wins two consecutive points, then they win the game, otherwise neither player wins.

Determine the probability of the following events.

(i) Andy wins the game. [2]

(ii) Neither player wins the game. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 2 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 (b) Andy and Bev now decide to play a match which consists of a series of games.

• In each game, if a player wins the game then they win the match.
• If neither player wins the game then the players play another game.

Determine the probability that Andy wins the match. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 3 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 2 The Venn diagram shows the numbers of students studying various subjects, in a year group of 100 students.

A student is chosen at random from the 100 students. Then another student is chosen from the remaining
students.

Find the probability that the first student studies History and the second student studies Geography but not
Psychology. [4]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 4 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 3(a) In this question you must show detailed reasoning.

A biased four-sided spinner has edges numbered 1, 2, 3, 4. When the spinner is spun, the probability that it will
land on the edge numbered X is given by

Draw a table showing the probability distribution of X. [1]

(b) The spinner is spun three times and the value of X is noted each time.

Find the probability that the third value of X is greater than the sum of the first two values of X. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 5 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 4(a) In this question you must show detailed reasoning.

The random variable X has probability distribution defined as follows.

Show that . [1]

(b) The values of three independent observations of X are denoted by X 1, X 2 and X 3.

Given that X 1 + X 2 + X 3 = 9, determine the probability that at least one of these three values is equal to 2. [6]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 6 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 (c) Freda chooses values of X at random until she has obtained X = 2 exactly three times. She then stops.

Determine the probability that she chooses exactly 10 values of X. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 7 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 5 Mr Jones has 3 tins of beans and 2 tins of pears. His daughter has removed the labels for a school project, and
the tins are identical in appearance. Mr Jones opens tins in turn until he has opened at least 1 tin of beans and at
least 1 tin of pears. He does not open any remaining tins.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate this situation, labelling each branch with its associated probability. [3]

(b) Find the probability that Mr Jones opens exactly 3 tins. [3]

(c) It is given that the last tin Mr Jones opens is a tin of pears. Find the probability that he opens exactly 3
tins. [5]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 8 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 6 Bag A contains 3 black discs and 2 white discs only. Initially Bag B is empty. Discs are removed at random from
bag A, and are placed in bag B, one at a time, until all 5 discs are in bag B.

(a) Write down the probability that the last disc that is placed in bag B is black. [1]

(b) Find the probability that the first disc and the last disc that are placed in bag B are both black. [2]

(c) Find the probability that, starting from when the first disc is placed in bag B, the number of black discs in
bag B is always greater than the number of white discs in bag B. [4]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 9 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 7 It is known that 26% of adults in the UK use a certain app. A researcher selects a random sample of 5000 adults
in the UK. The random variable X is defined as the number of adults in the sample who use the app.

Given that P(X < n) < 0.025, calculate the largest possible value of n. [5]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 10 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 8(a) A random variable X has probability distribution defined as follows.

where k is a constant.

Show that P(X = 3) = 0.2. [3]

(b) Show in a table the values of X and their probabilities. [2]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 11 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 (c) Two independent values of X are chosen, and their total T is found.

(i) Find P(T = 7). [3]

(ii) Given that T = 7, determine the probability that one of the values of X is 2. [4]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 12 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 9 A counter is initially at point O on the x–axis. A fair coin is thrown 6 times. Each time the coin shows heads, the
counter is moved one unit in the positive x–direction. Each time the coin shows tails, the counter is moved one
unit in the negative x–direction. The final distance of the counter from O, in either direction, is denoted by D.

Determine the most probable value of D. [7]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 13 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 10 The discrete random variable X takes values 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, and its probability distribution is defined as follows.

where a is a constant.

(a) Show that . [2]

The discrete probability distribution for X is given in the table.

(b) Find the probability that X is odd. [1]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 14 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Two independent values of X are chosen, and their sum S is found.

(c) Find the probability that S is odd. [2]

(d) Find the probability that S is greater than 8, given that S is odd. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 15 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Sheila sometimes needs several attempts to start her car in the morning. She models the number of attempts
she needs by the discrete random variable Y defined as follows.

for all positive integers y.

(e) Find P(Y = 1). [2]

(f) Give a reason why one of the variables, X or Y, might be more appropriate as a model for the number
of attempts that Sheila needs to start her car. [1]

11 The probability distribution of a random variable X is given in the table.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 16 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 (a) Find the value of p. [2]

(b) Two values of X are chosen at random. Find the probability that the product of these values is 0. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 17 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 12 Rob has two six-sided dice, each with sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
One dice is fair. The other dice is biased, with probabilities as shown in the table.

Biased die
y 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(Y = y) 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.14 0.1 0.01

Rob throws each dice once and notes the two scores, X on the fair dice and Y on the biased dice. He then
calculates the value of the variable S which is defined as follows.

If X ≤ 3, then S = X + 2Y.
If X > 3, then S = X + Y.

(a) (i) Draw up a sample space diagram showing all the possible outcomes and the corresponding values of [2]
S.

(ii) On your diagram, circle the four cells where the value S = 10 occurs. [1]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 18 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 (b) Explain the mistake in the following calculation. [1]

(c) Find the correct value of P(S = 10). [2]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 19 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 (d) Given that S = 10, find the probability that the score on one of the dice is 4. [3]

(e) The events “X = 1 or 2” and “S = n” are mutually exclusive. Given that P(S = n) ≠ 0, find the value of n. [1]

13 For events A, B and C it is given that P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(C ) = 0.4 and P (A ⋂ B ⋂ C) = 0.1. It is also given
that events A and B are independent and that events A and C are independent.

(i) Find P (B│A) [1]

(ii) Given also that events B and C are independent, find P (A’⋂B’⋂C’). [4]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 20 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Given instead that events B and C are not independent, find the greatest and least possible values of
(iii) P (A’⋂B’⋂C’ ). [5]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 21 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 14 In a class of 30 students, each student studies exactly one modern language. 14 students study French, 9
students study Spanish and 7 students study German. A committee of 6 students is to be chosen from these 30
students. Find the number of ways of choosing the committee if it contains

(i) any 6 students from the class, [1]

(ii) 2 students studying each language, [2]

(iii) exactly 1 student studying French. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 22 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 15 In a high jump competition, jumpers are allowed three attempts to succeed at each height. For one particular
height Imran estimates his chances of succeeding as follows.

The probability that he will succeed on his first attempt is

If he fails on his first attempt, the probability that he will succeed on his second attempt is

If he fails on his first two attempts, the probability that he will succeed on his third attempt is p.

Use Imran’s estimates to answer the following.

(i) Complete the below probability tree diagram for this situation. [2]

First attempt

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 23 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 (ii) Find the probability that Imran succeeds on either his first or his second attempt. [3]

(iii) Given that the probability that Imran succeeds at this particular height is , find p. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 24 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 16 On average, 40% of candidates pass a certain test on the first attempt.

Three candidates take the test. The number who pass on the first attempt is denoted by X.

(a) State an appropriate model for X, including the values of any parameters. [1]

(b) State an appropriate model for X, including the values of any parameters. [2]

(c) Suggest a reason why one of these assumptions might not be true in practice. [1]

You should now assume that both these assumptions are true.

(d) Find the probability that exactly 2 of the 3 candidates pass the test. [1]

All candidates who fail the test take a re-test and, on average, 60% of these candidates pass. Assume that the
same two assumptions are satisfied as for the original test.

(e) Find the probability that all three candidates pass, either on the test or on the re-test. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 25 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 17
(a) Events A and B are independent, and and

Find P(A) and P(B). [5]

(b) Events C and D are such that P(C) = 0.6, P(D) = 0.3 and P (C ⋃ D) = 0.8. Find P (D |C′). [4]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 26 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 18 Joanne has five cards, numbered 1, 1, 1, 2, 2. She picks two cards at random, without replacement. The variable
X denotes the sum of the numbers on the two cards.

(a) [2]
Show that

The table shows the probability distribution of X.

Joanne replaces the two cards. Now Liam picks two cards at random from the five cards, without replacement.
The variable Y denotes the sum of the numbers on the two cards that Liam picks.

(b) Find P(X = Y). [2]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 27 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 19 Each of the 30 students in a class plays at least one of squash, hockey and tennis.

18 students play squash

19 students play hockey
17 students play tennis
8 students play squash and hockey
9 students play hockey and tennis
11 students play squash and tennis

(a) Find the number of students who play all three sports. [3]

A student is picked at random from the class.

(b) Given that this student plays squash, find the probability that this student does not play hockey. [1]

Two different students are picked at random from the class, one after the other, without replacement.

(c) Given that the first student plays squash, find the probability that the second student plays hockey. [4]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 28 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 20 A random variable X has probability distribution given by

(a) Find P(X > 39). [2]

(b) Given that x is even, determine P(X <10). [6]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 29 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 30 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 21 (a) The heights of English men aged 25 to 34 are normally distributed with mean 178 cm and standard
deviation 8 cm. Three English men aged 25 to 34 are chosen at random. Find the probability that all
three of them have a height less than 194 cm. [3]

(b) The diagram shows the distribution of heights of Scottish women aged 25 to 34.

It is given that the distribution is approximately normal. Use the diagram above to estimate the
standard deviation of these heights, explaining your method. [3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 31 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 22 A market gardener records the masses of a random sample of 100 of this year's crop of plums. The table shows
his results.

Mass, m m < 25 25 ≤ m < 35 35 ≤ m < 45 45 ≤ m < 55 55 ≤ m < 65 65 ≤ m < 75 m ≥ 75

grams
Number of 0 3 29 36 30 2 0
plums

(a) Explain why the normal distribution might be a reasonable model for this distribution. [1]

The market gardener models the distribution of masses by N(47.5, 102 ) .

(b) Find the number of plums in the sample that this model would predict to have masses in the range
(i) 35 ≤ m < 45, [2]

(ii) m < 25. [2]

(c) Use your answers to parts (b)(i) and (b)(ii) to comment on the suitability of this model. [1]

(d) The market gardener plans to use this model to predict the distribution of the masses of next year's
crop of plums. Comment on this plan. [1]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 32 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 23 The probability distribution of a random variable X is given in the table.

x 1 2 3
P(X = x) 0.6 0.3 0.1

Two values of X are chosen at random. Find the probability that the second value is greater than the first.
[3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 33 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 24 Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.6 and P(A|B′) = 0.75.

(i) Find P(A∩B) and P(A∩B).

[6]

(ii) Determine, giving a reason in each case,

(a) whether A and B are mutually exclusive,
(b) whether A and B are independent.
[2]

(iii) A further event C is such that P(A∪B∪C) = 1 and P(A∩B∩C) = 0.05. It is also given that P(A∩B′∩C) =
P(A′∩B∩C) = x and P(A∩B′∩C′) = 2x.
Find P(C).
[3]

25

(i) A random variable X has the distribution B(25, 0.6). Find

(a) P(X ⩽ 14),

[1]

(b) P(X = 14),

[2]

(c) Var(X).

[2]

(ii) A random variable Y has the distribution B(24, 0.3). Write down an expression for P(Y = y) and evaluate this
probability in the case where y = 8.

[2]

(iii) A random variable Z has the distribution B(2, 0.2). Find the probability that two randomly chosen values of Z
are equal.

[3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 34 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 26 The manufacturer of electronic components uses the following process to test the proportion of defective items
produced.

A random sample of 20 is taken from a large batch of components.

If no defective item is found, the batch is accepted.

If two or more defective items are found, the batch is rejected.
If one defective item is found, a second random sample of 20 is taken. If two or more defective items are
found in this second sample, the batch is rejected, otherwise the batch is accepted.

The proportion of defective items in the batch is denoted by p, and q = 1 – p.

(i) Show that the probability that a batch is accepted is q20 + 20pq38(q + 20p).

[3]

For a particular component, p = 0.01.

(ii) Given that a batch is accepted, find the probability that it is accepted as a result of the first sample.

[3]

27 For the events A and B it is given that

P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3 and P(A or B but not both) = 0.4.

(i) Find P(A ∩ B).

[3]

(ii) Find P(A′ ∩ B).

[1]

(iii) State, giving a reason, whether A and B are independent.

[1]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 35 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 28 During an outbreak of a disease, it is known that 68% of people do not have the disease. Of people with the
disease, 96% react positively to a test for diagnosing it, as do m% of people who do not have the disease.

(i) In the case m = 8, find the probability that a randomly chosen person has the disease, given that the person
reacts positively to the test.

[5]

(ii) What value of m would be required for the answer to part (i) to be 0.95?

[4]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 36 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 29 Each question on a multiple-choice examination paper has n possible responses, only one of which is correct.
Joni takes the paper and has probability p, where 0 < p < 1, of knowing the correct response to any question,
independently of any other. If she knows the correct response she will choose it, otherwise she will choose
randomly from the n possibilities. The events K and A are ‘Joni knows the correct response’ and ‘Joni answers
correctly’ respectively.

(i) Show that where q = 1 – p.

[3]

(ii) Find P(K|A).

[3]

A paper with 100 questions has n = 4 and p = 0.5. Each correct response scores 1 and each incorrect response
scores – 1.

(iii)
(a) Joni answers all the questions on the paper and scores 40. How many questions did she answer
correctly?

[1]

(b) By finding the distribution of the number of correct answers, or otherwise, find the probability that Joni
scores at least 40 on the paper using her strategy.

[6]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 37 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 30 Each day Harry makes repeated attempts to light his gas fire. If the fire lights he makes no more attempts. On
each attempt, the probability that the fire will light is 0.3 independent of all other attempts. Find the probability
that

(i) the fire lights on the 5th attempt,

[2]

(ii) Harry needs more than 1 attempt but fewer than 5 attempts to light the fire.

[3]

If the fire does not light on the 6th attempt, Harry stops and the fire remains unlit.

(iii) Find the probability that, on a particular day, the fire lights.

[3]

(iv) Harry’s week starts on Monday. Find the probability that, during a certain week, the first day on which the fire
lights is Wednesday.

[2]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 38 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 31 The table shows the numbers of members of a swimming club in certain categories.

Male Female
Adults 78 45
Children 52 n

It is given that of the female members are children.

(i) Find the value of n.

[2]

(ii) Find the probability that a member chosen at random is either female or a child (or both).

[2]

The table below shows the corresponding numbers for an athletics club.

Male Female
Adults 6 4
Children 5 10

(iii) Two members of the athletics club are chosen at random for a photograph.

(a) Find the probability that one of these members is a female child and the other is an adult male.

[2]

(b) Find the probability that exactly one of these members is female and exactly one is a child.

[2]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 39 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 32
Each time Ben attempts to complete a crossword in his daily newspaper, the probability that he succeeds is .
The random variable X denotes the number of times that Ben succeeds in 9 attempts.

(i) Find

(a) P(X = 6),

[3]

(b) P(X ˂ 6),

[1]

(c) E(X) and Var(X).

[2]

Ben notes three values, X1, X2 and X3, of X.

(ii) State the total number of attempts to complete a crossword that are needed to obtain three values of X.
Hence find P(X1 + X2 + X3 = 18).

[4]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 40 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 33 Sandra makes repeated, independent attempts to hit a target. On each attempt, the probability that she
succeeds is 0.1.

(i) Find the probability that

(a) the first time she succeeds is on her 5th attempt,

[2]

(b) the first time she succeeds is after her 5th attempt,

[2]

(c) the second time she succeeds is before her 4th attempt.

[4]

Jill also makes repeated attempts to hit the target. Each attempt of either Jill or Sandra is independent. Each
time that Jill attempts to hit the target, the probability that she succeeds is 0.2. Sandra and Jill take turns
attempting to hit the target, with Sandra going first.

(ii) Find the probability that the first person to hit the target is Sandra, on her

(a) 2nd attempt,

[2]

(b) 10th attempt.

[3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 41 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 34

(i) Kathryn is allowed three attempts at a high jump. If she succeeds on any attempt, she does not jump again.

The probability that she succeeds on her first attempt is . If she fails on her first attempt, the probability that

she succeeds on her second attempt is . If she fails on her first two attempts, the probability that she

succeeds on her third attempt is . Find the probability that she succeeds.

[3]

(ii) Khaled is allowed two attempts to pass an examination. If he succeeds on his first attempt, he does not make
a second attempt. The probability that he passes at the first attempt is 0.4 and the probability that he passes
on either the first or second attempt is 0.58. Find the probability that he passes on the second attempt, given
that he failed on the first attempt.

[3]

35 Froox sweets are packed into tubes of 10 sweets, chosen at random. 25% of Froox sweets are yellow.

(i) Find the probability that in a randomly selected tube of Froox sweets there are

(a) exactly 3 yellow sweets,

[3]

(b) at least 3 yellow sweets.

[2]

(ii) Find the probability that in a box containing 6 tubes of Froox sweets, there is at least 1 tube that contains at
least 3 yellow sweets.

[3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 42 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 36

(i) A bag contains 12 black discs, 10 white discs and 5 green discs. Three discs are drawn at random from the
bag, without replacement. Find the probability that all three discs are of different colours.

[3]

(ii) A bag contains 30 red discs and 20 blue discs. A second bag contains 50 discs, each of which is either red
or blue. A disc is drawn at random from each bag. The probability that these two discs are of different colours
is 0.54. Find the number of red discs that were in the second bag at the start.

[4]

37 In a factory, an inspector checks a random sample of 30 mugs from a large batch and notes the number, X,
which are defective. He then deals with the batch as follows.

If X < 2, the batch is accepted.

If X > 2, the batch is rejected.
If X = 2, the inspector selects another random sample of only 15 mugs from the batch. If this second sample
contains 1 or more defective mugs, the batch is rejected. Otherwise the batch is accepted.

It is given that 5% of mugs are defective.

(i)
(a) Find the probability that the batch is rejected after just the first sample is checked.

[3]

(b) Show that the probability that the batch is rejected is 0.327, correct to 3 significant figures.

[5]

(ii) Batches are checked one after another. Find the probability that the first batch to be rejected is either the 4th
or the 5th batch that is checked.

[3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 43 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 38 The probability distribution of a random variable X is shown.

x 1 3 5 7
P(X = x) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

(i) Find E(X) and Var(X).

[5]

(ii) Three independent values of X, denoted by X1, X2 and X3, are chosen. Given that X1 + X2 + X3 = 19, write
down all the possible sets of values for X1, X2 and X3 and hence find P(X1 = 7).

[2]

(iii) 11 independent values of X are chosen. Use an appropriate formula to find the probability that exactly 4 of
these values are 5s.

[3]

END OF QUESTION PAPER

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 44 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

1 a i P(AA or BAA) = 0.42 + M1 allow M1 for either 0.42

0.6×0.42 oe (AO3.1b) (×…) or 0.6×0.42 (×…)

A1
= (AO1.1)
0.256 [2]
or

ii ABA or BAB M1 both seen or implied

(AO3.1b)
P(ABA or BAB) = 0.42 × 0.6 M1 M1 for either 0.42×0.6 or
+ 0.62 × 0.4 (AO1.1) 0.62 ×0.4
A1
0.24 (AO1.1)

Alternative method
M1
1 – ("0.256" + 0.62 + M1 M1 for 1 – P(A wins or B
0.4×0.62) wins) attempted
A1 M1 for 1 – ("0.256" (+ ……))
or 1 – ((…..)+ 0.62 +
= 0.24 0.4×0.62)
NB 0.4 × 0.6 = 0.24:
M0M0A0

b '0.256' + '0.24'×'0.256' + M1 ft (a)(i)&(ii)

'0.242'×0.256 +…. (AO3.1b)

M1 ft (a)(i)&(ii) ie
(AO2.1)

A1 cao S5 = 0.337 SC B1, but

(AO1.1) with added comment
or 0.337 (3 sf) [3] M1M1A1

Total 8

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 45 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

2 P(1st HGP’ & 2nd GP’ or One of the P(1st HGP’

1st HGP & 2nd GP’ following & 2nd GP’
or 1st HG’ & 2nd GP’ ) expression or
s seen: M1 1st {H –
Another HGP’} &
M1(AO3. seen: M1 2nd GP’ )
1b)

M1(AO1.
1)
or
or
or

M2
3rd M1 for
M1(AO2. all correct or
M1
1)
A1(AO1. or
M2
1)
Examiner’s Comments
[4]
Most candidates found
P(1st studies History) ×
P(2nd studies Geography
but not Psychology)

or possibly

. These methods
do not take into account the
possible overlaps between
the two events. The two
events need to be
separated into different
cases. In order to gain any
marks, candidates needed
to show products such as

or . Full
details can be found in the
published mark scheme.

Total 4

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 46 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

3 a
B1(AO1. B1
1)
[1]

b DR 1,1,3; 1,1,4; 1,2,4; B1(AO3. B1 for any three of these

2,1,4 1a) soi, eg on tree diagram
M1(AO2. Any two correct products
1) added: ft their table

A1(AO1.
1) Examiner’s Comments
[3]
Many candidates did not
identify all four cases.
Some only found the
products of two, rather than
three, probabilities.

Total 4

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 47 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

4 a

DR oe eg ( B1 Must see this expression

AG) (AO1.1) and result
[1]

b DR 2, 2, 5 2, 3, 4 3, 3, M1 Any two seen, with no more

3 (AO3.1a) than 2 extra different
combinations. eg 0, 4, 5
P(X1 + X2 + X3 = 9) = and 0, 5, 4 count as one
extra

M1 M2:≥ 1 correct product

0.0412 + 0.1373 + 0.0305
(AO2.1) actually seen & all three
M1 products correct
(AO2.1) M1:1 correct product seen
or all correct except
omission of, or
P(X1+ X2 + X3 =9 and at incorrect, multiple(s)
least 1 X value = 2) or all three results or
total correct, but without
M1 working
(AO1.1)

M1
= 0.854 o (AO2.1) Allow M1 for 1 correct
A1 product or omit, or
(3 sf) r (AO2.2a) incorrect, multiple(s) or ft
their probabilities from their
P(X1 + X2 + X3 = 9 and no X previous calculation
value = 2)
÷ their attempted probs of
(=0.030518 M1 correct events
M1
or )

A1
[6]
= 0.854 o

(3 sf) r ft their P(3, 3, 3)

÷ their attempted
probabilities of correct
events & subtract from 1

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 48 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

NB alone scores
M1

Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates were

unable to find their way
through the various
calculations needed. Some
obtained a correct product
of three probabilities (e. g.
for 2, 2, 5) but omitted to
multiply by 3. Others
omitted the case 3, 3, 3
altogether.

c P(two 2's in nine vales of X) M1 soi eg by 9C2 seen

(AO3.1a

or 0.094466 M1
(AO2.1)
or A1 soi
P(two 2's in nine vales of X) (AO1.1)
× P(X = 2) [3]
NB scores 0,
unless multiplied by 9C2
or
0.0443 (3 sf)
Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates did not

recognise the need to
consider the first 9 values
separately before
considering the 10th.

Some candidates seemed

unfamiliar with the binomial
distribution.

Misconception

In answering Question 7
(about vectors) some
candidates appeared not to
appreciate the different
significances of a, a and A.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 49 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Some candidates appeared

not to understand the
description "cartesian
equation" and attempted to
find some sort of vector
equation of the circle in
question 7(d).

Many candidates did not

appreciate the need for the
modulus sign, and how to

use it, after integrating

, in question 8.

Many candidates used ’=’

instead of ‘≤’ in the
hypothesis test, as
mentioned in Question 10.

In answering Question
13(b), most candidates did
not recognise that an
infinite series was involved.

Total 10

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 50 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

5 a B1 (AO
Correct structure, 1.1a) allow extra
branches
Correct labels, b and p B1 (AO with probs
1.1) =1
Correct probs B1 (AO
1.1)
[3]

b M1 (AO M1 each
3.1b) correct
M1 (AO prod of
2.1) probs
A1 (AO
1.1)

[3]

c P(opens 3 and last is pear)

M1 (AO correct
1.1) product

P(last is pear) M1 (AO or P(last is

3.1b) or M1 for pears) =
M1 (AO two correct P(1st is
2.1) products beans) M2
M1 (AO added
2.4)
attempted
A1 (AO
2.2a)
[5]

Total 11

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 51 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

6 a B1
(AO1.1)
[1]

b M1 o
(AO1.1a)
r

A1 o
(AO1.1)
[2] r

c BBB, BBWB M1 With no

(AO3.1b) extras
M1
(AO2.1)
M1
o
(AO1.1a) M1 for
A1 each r
= oe
(AO1.1) correct
[4] product of
probs

Total 7

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 52 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

7 N(5000×0.26, M1(AO3. or, using

5000×0.26×0.74) may be 1a) Binomial
implied not Normal,
= N(1300, 962) M1(AO3. or B(5000,
1300–2×√"962" or 1300 – 3) Φ-1(0.025) 0.26) soi x
1.96×√"962" May be M1
(= 1238) (= 1239) implied Attempt
or –1.96 or P(X < n) for
1239(.2) 1230<n<
M1(AO3. seen 1250
4) or inverse
P(X < 1239) or P(X ≤ 1238) Bin (0.025)
or P(X < 1240) or P(X ≤ A1(AO1. One of (= 1239)
1239) 1) these M1
attempted,
P(X < 1238) = 0.0233 OR A1(AO2. by Binomial
P(X < 1239) = 0.0251 2a) or Normal
BC Allow
P(X < 1238) = 0.0233 OR 0.0232
P(X < 1239) = 0.0251 instead of
AND Largest n is 1239 or n Correct P(X 0.0233
< 1239 < 1238)
&P(X If use
<1239) normal to
Example of incorrect seen and find these
method: conclusion. probs
1300 – 2×√"962" (= 1238) (0.0265 &
P(X < 1239) = 0.0251 Example of 0.0246)
P(X < 1238) = 0.0233 [5] inadequate A0A0
Largest n is 1239 method:
SC 4 NB If two
1300 –1.96 methods
×√"962" (= used, mark
1239) the better
Largest n is one.
1239
SC 4 NB:
SC 1239,
no working
or incorrect
or
inadequate
working,
SC: 4
marks out
of 5

Examiner’s Comments

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 53 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Many candidates, sensibly,

used the Normal
approximation to the
Binomial distribution, which
gave rise to n = 1239.2.
However, most then just
wrote down their answer
(either 1239 or 1240)
without checking the actual
values of P(n ≤ a) (or P(n <
a) ) for values of a close to
1239.

Other candidates used the

"Binomial cdf" function,
trying various values of a
until they arrived at the
largest value that gave P(n
< a) < 0.025.

A few used the "Inverse

binomial" function, which
gave rise to n = 1239, but
most of these candidates
did not proceed to check
the actual values of P(n ≤
a) (or P(n ≤ a) ) for values
of a close to 1239.

Many candidates,
whichever method they
used, showed a
misunderstanding of the
"Binomial cdf" function on
their calculator. Their
working showed that they
thought that the "Binomial
cdf" function gives the value
of P(n < a) rather than P(n
≤ a). So for example, some
wrote P(n ≤ 1239) = 0.0251,
which is incorrect. Others
"fudged" the issue by
writing, for example "1239
→ 0.0251". Best practice
would be to show explicitly
P(n ≤ 1239) = 0.0251 and
P(n ≤ 1238) = 0.0233, and
hence state that the largest
possible value of n is 1239.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 54 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Total 5

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 55 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

8 a k(1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5) (= 1) M1(AO3. Allow 15k

3) (= 1)
A1(AO1.
1) May be
implied
P(X = 3) = 3 × A1(AO2.
1)
Must see

(= 0.2 AG) [3] and answer

0.2

Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates answered

this question correctly.
Many, however, (perhaps
misunderstanding the
phrase "where k is a
constant") assumed that all
five probabilities were
equal, and therefore each
probability was 0.2

b 1 2 3 4 5

M1(AO1. M1 for ≥ 3 Allow X = 0

oe 2) probs or X = 6 or
A1(AO1. correct, ft X = 6+ if
0.07, 0.13, 0.2, 0.27, 0.33 1) their k prob shown
cao. Allow as 0
[2] decimals (2
dp)
SC: Table
with all five
probs =
0.2: M1

Examiner’s Comments

Almost all candidates

answered this correctly, or
incorrectly but consistently
with their method for part
(a).

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 56 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

c i Both parts. Allow mixture of

methods

M1(AO3. Correct
4) products
oe
added, ft
M1(AO3. their table
1a)
×2
2×(Sum of
A1(AO1. two
or 0.196 (3 sf) 1) products of
probs)

cao
[3] Special
cases All probs =
2-way table 0.2
Count 4 0.22+0.22
pairs M1

M1 But if (b)
But if (b) correct: M0
correct: 2×(0.
M0 22+0.22)
Allow
÷25 without 2×
M1 M1

= 0.16 = 0.16
A0 A0

Examiner’s Comments

In both these parts, some

candidates either assumed
that the probabilities for all
the values of X were equal,
or (which is equivalent)
drew up a two-way table of
all the possible outcomes
and counted up the relevant
ones. These were able to
gain only a few marks.
Some candidates used one
of these incorrect methods,
despite having answered
parts (a) and (b) correctly.

Many candidates

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 57 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

recognised that for T =

7could be found by
considering 2+5 and 3+4,
but forgot to consider 5+2
and 4+3.

Exemplar 1

This candidate has shown

clear working, but forgotten
to multiple by two in order
to consider all the ways to
score T = 7 .

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 58 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii P(one value is 2 M1(AO3. Allow

4) without
& T = 7) "2×", ft their
A1f(AO1. table
1) ft their table
(except if
all probs =
M1(AO2. 0.2)
1)

A1(AO1.
1) cao NB not
or 0.455 (3 sf)
0.454
[4]
Eg:

If (i)
M1A0M1A0
Count 2 2 × 0.22 M1
pairs
= 0.08
M1 A0

A0
M1
÷4
= 0.5
M1
A0
= 0.5
A0

Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates attempted

to use the conditional
probability formula and,
correctly, placed their
answer to part (c)(i) in the
denominator of a fraction.
But many were unable to
identify the pairs of values
that gave rise to "T = 7 AND
one of the values is 2".

Total 12

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 59 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

9 Let X be the number of

heads.
M1 soi
(AO3.3)

M1 soi Considerin
P(D = 0) = P(X = 3) (AO2.1) g explicitly
M1 soi relationship
P(D = 2) = 2 × P(X = 4) or (AO2.1) between D
similar B1 soi and X
(AO1.1)
Values of D are 0, 2, 4, 6 A1 Any two
(AO3.4) correct
A1
(AO1.1) All correct

A1
The largest value is , so (AO1.1) For
the most probable [7] identifying
2

value of D is 2

Total 7

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 60 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

10 a

soi M1 (AO or
3.1a) oe seen

A1 (AO correctly
1.1) obtained

[2]
Examiner’s Comments

This question was well

answered on the
whole, although a few
candidates used the
probabilities in the table,
just finding

b or 0.677 or B1 (AO
0.68 (2 sf) 1.1a)

[1]

Examiner’s Comments
This question was well
answered.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 61 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

c P(sum odd) = P(OE) +

P(EO)
M1 (AO or correct Allow
2.1) "long" without "2
method ×"

A1 (AO
or 0.437 or 0.44 (2 1.1)
sf)
[2]

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates did not
see that their answer to part
(b) could be used, and
started from scratch using
the probabilities in the table.
Many of these omitted at
least one possible pair, and
others included all possible
pairs, but omitted to double
their answer. A few
candidates ignored the
probabilities (and their
answer to part (b)) and
assumed the each value of
X is equally likely.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 62 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

d P(Sum > 8 & odd) = P(Sum

= 9)
or P(> 8) ×
= P(4, 5) + P(5, 4) P(O | > 8)

M1 (AO Correct
1.1a) method

M1 (AO Attempt
2.4) ft their (c)
and their
P(Sum > 8
& odd)
A1 (AO
or 0.00952 or 1.1)
0.0095 (2 sf)
[3] cao
M0M1A0

Examiner’s Comments
Most candidates recognised
the need to find P(S = 9),
but some omitted to include
both 4, 5 and 5, 4 . Many
then correctly divided by
their answer to part (d).

e M1 (AO
3.4)

P(X = 1) = 0.5 A1 (AO Correct

3.4) ans, no
working
[2] M1A1

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates
recognised the need for an
infinite series, but most
could not cope with the fact
that the first term is
unknown. Many candidates
thought that Y cannot be 0,
hence P(Y = 0) = 0 and
hence
P(Y = 1) = 0.5 – 0 = 0

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 63 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

f Eg Y. (Y takes all values, oe, eg Y. It

but) X cannot be > 5 may take
more than
Eg X because > 5 is very B1 (AO 5 attempts
unlikely 3.5b) or "limited
no." oe
[1] instead of 5

Examiner’s Comments
A choice of either X or Y
with a reasonable
justification was acceptable.
Some candidates felt that it
was unrealistic for Sheila to
go on trying after five
attempts, so X is the better
model. Others said that she
might well need more than
five attempts so Y is the
better model. One
ingenious answer was that
X is better, because it gives
a higher chance of the car
starting first time!
Unfortunately, this answer
did not deal with the
question as to which model
is more appropriate. A
common incorrect response
was that Y is a good model
because according to Y the
probability that the car
starts decreases, rather
than increases, with each
attempt. Others stated that
Y is not a good model,
quoting exactly the same
reason. Some answers did
not include a choice of
either X or Y. Another
answer was that model Y
implies that the car never
starts. Many answers

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 64 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

seemed to imply that using

model X, the probabilities
do not decrease.

Total 11

11 a M1 oe eg
(AO1.1a)

A1
(AO1.1)
or 0.0625
Examiner’s Comments
[2]
Most candidates answered
this question correctly. A
few tried to use Σxp instead
of Σp.

b
M1 or eg or
or seen oe (AO1.1a)
M2
ft their p

M1 ft their p or
oe (AO2.1)

Allow0.61
or 0.609 (3 sf)) A1
(AO1.1)
M2
[3]
Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates scored

only one mark because
they omitted one or two of
the three possible routes to
obtaining a product of 0.

Total 5

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 65 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

12 a (i)

B2(AO B1 for ≥ 30
1.1a 1.1) values
correct

[2]
(ii) Four 10s circled or
otherwise indicated

B1(AO
1.1) Must be
exactly four
10s in
table.
[1]

b Outcomes not equally likely E1(AO

oe 2.3)

[1]

c M1(AO
3.1b)

A1(AO
1.1)

[2]

d P(S = 10 & one score = 4) = M1(AO

3.1b)

P(One score = 4 | S = 10)

M1(AO ft their (c),

2.1) dep 1st M1
gained in
(d)
A1(AO
1.1)
cao

[3]

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 66 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

e n = 15 B1(AO
1.2)

[1]

Total 10

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 67 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

13 i 0.5 B1

[1]
Examiner’s Comments
Almost all candidates
answered this question
correctly.

ii 0.16 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.14 + M2 M1 for at 0.6 + 0.5 +

0.1 + 0.1 + 0.06 least 4 0.4 – 0.3 –
correct. 0.24 – 0.2
+ 0.1 =
0.86

M2A1. M1
if incorrect
coefficient
A1 of
= 0.86 P(A⋂B⋂C)
used in
1 – “0.86” otherwise
A1 correct
0.14 formula.
[5]

Examiner’s Comments
Most candidates gained full
marks. A few made errors
in the formula for
P(A⋃B⋃C).

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 68 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii greatest : P(A’ ⋂B⋂C’ ) = M1 for any of Greatest: 1

0.04, these soi – (0.6 + 0.5
P(A’ ⋂B⋂C) = 0.16 eg P(B⋂C) + 0.4 – 0.3
= 0.26 – 0.24 –
P(A’ ⋂B’ ⋂C) = 0 0.26 + 0.1)
= 0.2
least: P(A’ ⋂B⋂C’ ) = 0.2, M1
P(A’ ⋂B⋂C) = 0
for any of
P(A’ ⋂B’ ⋂C) = 0.16 these soi Least 1 –
eg P(B⋂C) (0.6 + 0.5 +
greatest 1 – (0.16 + 0.2 + M1A1 = 0.1 0.4 – 0.3 –
0.04 + 0.14 + 0.1 + 0.16) = 0.24 – 0.1
0.2 + 0.1) =
A1 0.04
least 1 – (0.16 + 0.2 + 0.2 + M1 for fully
0.14 + 0.1 + 0.16) = 0.04 [5] correct
method for
either.

Examiner’s Comments
This was the most difficult
question on the paper.
Those who drew Venn
diagrams and put the
correct probabilities in the
correct places did better
than those who tried to
repeat the method in part
(ii). There were few fully
correct solutions, but many
found one of the correct
limits.

Total 10

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 69 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

14 i If P used instead of C B0 427518000

consistently in all parts M1A0 550368
attempted (at least two M1M1A0 7338240
parts attempted)
B1 or 594000
593775 (3 sf)
[1]
Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates misread
this question to mean "Find
the probability . . ." rather
than "Find the number of
ways . . .". These
candidates could gain a
maximum of 3 marks
altogether for all three
parts. The same maximum
applied for those who used
permutations instead of
combinations.
Most candidates answered
this question correctly. A
few just found 30!.
14
ii C2 × 9C2 × 7C2 alone M1
M1A0
MR: ÷ 30C6

= 68796 A1 or 68800 (3
sf)
[2]
Examiner’s Comments
A common error was
addition of the three correct
combinations, instead of
multiplication.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 70 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii 14 (or 14C1) or 14 × alone M2 or M1 for 14×(9C5+9

× 16C5 4368 either C4x7
16
C5 or +9C3×7C2
4368 seen +9C2×
7
C3+9x7C4
+7C5) M2

or 14 (or NOT 14 +
14
A1 C1) × any ….. : M0M0
= 61152 no. seen
[3] MR: ÷ 30C6
or 61200 (3
sf) M2A0

Examiner’s Comments
Arithmetical errors were
common in the otherwise
correct, but very long,
method of adding six
products of combinations.
Candidates who used the
direct method (14C1 × 16C5)
were more likely to obtain
the correct answer. Some
candidates, incorrectly,
found 14C1 × 30C5 or 14C1 ×
29
C5. Others added 14C1 +

16
C5.

Total 6

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 71 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

15 i All correct lines & probs OR B1 Allow extra “probs”

labels lines with includes
no probs 1–p
given,
B1
All correct lines & probs & or prob = 0 Ignore
labels [2] given, for products at
B1B1 end, if
shown
No need for
labels “2nd Instead of p
attempt” &
and “3rd 1 – p, allow
attempt” 0.7 & 0.3 or
incorrect p
& –p from
SC: One (iii)
line
omitted, all
probs and NOT q
labels instead of
given on 1–p
other lines
B1B0

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates omitted
some probabilities or some
labels. A few gave extra
branches, with probabilities
on them.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 72 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii

M2 prod of
2 P’s or

1– prod of
2 P’s M1

M1M0A0
A1
No ft from

[3]
tree diag.

Examiner’s Comments
Many candidates answered
this q uestion correctly. A
few omitted the probability
of
succeeding on the first
attempt and just

found . Others
considered both first
and second attempts, but
incorrectly just

added .

iii M1

any correct M1d

step, one oe in
decimals

fract each side

Dep 1st M1

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 73 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ft from tree
A1 diag for
M1M1, not
A1
M1

oe M1

A1

[3]
or similar
arithmetic
methods

Examiner’s Comments
Many candidates gave a
correct equation involving p,
but some were unable to
handle the ensuing algebra.
Not many used the slightly
more efficient method,
using 1 – P(three failures).
Some correctly saw that
they could use their answer
to
part (ii) as part of the
method, but many

wrote Others
considered
only the third attempt,
giving

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 74 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Total 8

16 a Bin(3, 0.4) B1(AO

3.3)

[1]

b P(Pass) same for all B1(AO oe

candidates 2.4)

B1(AO oe Not just

Each candidate's result is 2.4) "Independe
indep of the other results nt"
[2]

c eg Some candidates may B1(AO oe; or eg

be more able than others 3.5b) 'work
harder'

[1]

d 0.288 B1(AO BC
3.4)

[1]

e 0 & 3, 1 & 2, 2& 1, 3 seen M1(AO all correct

or implied 3.1a)

A1(AO
0.216×0.216 + 0.432×0.36 3.4)
+ 0.288×0.6 + 0.064
A1(AO
= 0.439 (3 sf) 1.1)

[3]

Total 8

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 75 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

17 a M1(AO1.
1a)

M1(AO1.
1)

M1(AO3. Attempt
1a) equation in
one P
24(P(A))2 – 10P(A) + 1 = 0 A1(AO1.
( (6P(A) – 1)(4P(A) – 1) = 0 1) Correct
) quadratic
equation in
A1(AO1. one P
1)

[5] Allow
without
"vice versa"

b M1(AO
1.2)

M1(AO
1.1)

M1(AO Attempted
1.1)

M1(AO
1.2)

[4]

Total 9

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 76 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

18 a M1(AO1.
1)

A1(AO1. Must see

1) this step

[2]

b M1(AO1.
1a)

A1(AO1.
1)

[2]

Total 4

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 77 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

19 a Attempt to represent B1(AO3. Any OR

information e.g. by Venn 3) equivalent B1
diagram with x in centre method
and 3 other correct values
in terms of x M1(AO3.
M1
4)
Attempt total (in terms of x)
= 30 E1(AO1.
1) Or the
number
x = 4 so n(S H T) = 4 [3] doing all
three is 4.
E0 for just
x=4

b B1FT(AO FT their (a)

oe
2.2a)

[1]

c B1(AO2.
2a)

B1(AO2.
2a)

M1(AO2. All correct

2a)

A1(AO1.
1)

[4]

Total 8

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 78 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

20 a M1(AO1. Attempt at
1) evaluating
P ( X = 40)
A1(AO1.
1)

[2]

b M1(AO3. Attempt Σ Numerical

1a) probabilitie sums may
s of all be
A1(AO1. even evaluated
1) values BC
Correct throughout
A1(AO1. expression
1)

M1(AO1.
1)

Attempt Σ
A1(AO3. probabilitie
2a) s for
X = 2, 4,6,8

B1(AO2.
1)
For a clear
solution
allowing
the line of
reasoning
to be
followed,
[6]
with each
component
of the
conditional
probability
found
clearly

Total 8

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 79 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

21 a N (178, 82 ) and X < 194 oe M1(AO1. Soi

1)

P( X <194) = A1(AO1. BC
0.977(249868...) 1)

A1(AO1.
0.977249868...3 = 0.933 (3 1)
s.f.)
[3]

b E.g. |inflection –mean| M1(AO1. E.g. 170 – Figures are

E.g. (97.5th percentile – 1a) 163 illustrative
mean) E.g. (176 only

E.g. (99.7th percentile – – 163)

A1(AO1.
0.3th percentile) 1) E.g. (183
– 145)
= 6 to 7 E1(AO2.
4)
E.g. Point of inflection is 1
sd from mean Statement
E.g. 95% of values within [3] matching
(approx) 2 sds of mean method
E.g. Almost all within used
(approx) 3 sds of mean

Total 6

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 80 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

22 a Symmetrical, high in B1(AO2. Any two of Not just bell

middle, tails off at ends 4) these shaped

[1]

b (a)P(35 < m < 45) = 0.296 M1(AO3. Correct

4) probability
attempted
Predicted no. = 30 A1(AO1.
1) Allow 29.6
or ‘29 or
[2] 30’

c (b)P(m < 25) = 0.0122 M1(AO3. Correct

4) probability
attempted
Predicted no. = 1 A1(AO1.
1) Allow 1.2 or
‘1 or 2’
[2]

d 29.6 close to 29 and 1.2 B1(AO3. Both OR B1

close to 0 5a) needed Model
Hence model (could be) predicts
suitable [1] some
masses
below 25 g,
hence not
suitable

e E.g. Weather may cause B1(AO3. Any

different distribution 5b) sensible
reason why
[1] next year
may be
different

Total 7

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 81 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

23 0.6 × 0.3 or 0.6 × 0.1 or 0.3 M1 Any correct OR

× 0.1 (AO3.1a) product seen, M1
oe 0.62 +
0.32 +
0.12 (=
M1 0.46)
0.6 × 0.3 + 0.6 × 0.1 + 0.3 × (AO1.1) Fully correct
0.1 oe A1 method M1 0.5 ×
(AO1.1) (1-‘0.46’)
= 0.27
[3]

Total 3

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 82 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

24 i P(A ∩ B′) = 0.75 × 0.4 = 0.3 M1A1

i P(A ∩ B) = 0.5– “0.3” = 0.2 M1A1

i P(A ∪ B) = 0.5 + 0.6 – “0.2“ M1A1 Examiner's Comments

= 0.9
Four-fifths of the candidates
obtained full marks.

ii (a) No, P(A ∩ B) ≠ 0 oe B1

ii (b) No, 0.5 × 0.6 ≠ 0.2 oe B1 Examiner's Comments

Three-quarters of the
candidates obtained full
marks. Some candidates
did not fully understand the
concept of mutual
exclusiveness.

iii P(A' ∩ B′ ∩ C) = 0.1 soi B1ft 1 – (i)

iii x = 0.1 B1

iii P(C) = 2x + 0.05 + 0.1 = B1 Examiner's Comments

0.35
This was by far the most
difficult question on the
paper. Half the candidates
gained no marks. Many did
not realise that P(A ⋃
B)=0.9 ⇒ P(A′ ∩ B′ ∩
C)=0.1. A few found the
value of x correctly, but
could make no further
progress. Candidates who
drew Venn diagrams did
better than those who wrote
down many equations but
did not know what to do
with them.

Total 11

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 83 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

25 i (a) 0.414(2) B1
Examiner's Comments

This question was

answered correctly by many
candidates. A few read the
wrong value from the table.
Some used the formula
rather than the tables,
which took considerable
time and gave much scope
for arithmetical errors.
25
i (b) 0.4142 – 0.2677 M1 C14 × 0.411 × 0.614 or their (i) – 0.2677, dep
+ve result: M1

i = 0.1465 or 0.147 (3 sf) A1

allow 0.146 Examiner's Comments

This question was

answered correctly by many
candidates. A few read the
wrong values from the
table. Those who used the
formula were largely
successful.

i (c) 25 × 0.6 × 0.4 or 15 – 9 M1 Allow √(25 × 0.6 × 0.4) or

(ie from np(1 - p)) 2.45 for M1 Examiner's Comments
=6
Most candidates recognised
that the relevant formula is
npq and gave the correct
answer. However, a few
attempted to start from first
principles, using

∑x2p – (∑xp)2. None of

these candidates
understood the formula they
were attempting to use and
none gained any marks.

ii 24
Cy × 0.724–y – 0.3y oe B1 Allow other letters for y

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 84 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii (24C8 × 0.716 × 0.38 =) 0.160 B1 Allow 0.16 0.16(0) scores only the
(3 sf) second B1 No M-mark for
the correct express'n

Examiner's Comments

The most common error

was the omission of the
expression for P(Y = y).
The cause for this may
have been ignorance of
what the question meant, or
it may have been that
candidates simply did not
read the question carefully
enough.

iii (0.82)2 + (2 × 0.8 × 0.2)2 + M2 M1 for any correct term or

(0.22)2 oe or 0.642 + 0.322 + 0.042 or value of term

oe

iii A1
Examiner's Comments

This question proved too

difficult for most candidates.
Many found some of P(Z =
0), P(Z = 1) and P(Z = 2),
but did not proceed to
square the values they had
found. Some doubled,
rather than squared, their
probabilities. Others found
only two of these
probabilities but then
squared and added them
correctly.

Total 10

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 85 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

26 i P(batch accepted) = q20 B1

i … + 20q19p(q20 + 20q19p) M1 M1 for attempt at P(1)[P(0) Allow 20C1

+ P(1)]

i q20 + 20q38p (q + 20p) AG A1 Examiner's Comments

Almost always answered

correctly. A few omitted
20C1.

ii M1A1 0.9920/(i) with q = 0.99, p =

0.01

ii 0.834 A1 Examiner's Comments

Almost always answered

correctly.

Total 6

27 i Let P(A ∩ B) = x, 0.6 – x + M1A1 M1 for attempt to set up x must appear more than
0.3 – x = 0.4 equation in x. once.

i x = 0.25 A1 Examiner's Comments

Almost all gained full marks.

Those who did not usually
obtained the answer 0.5.

ii 0.05 B1 ft 0.3-(i). Ans must be ≤ 0.

Examiner's Comments

Those who were correct in

(i) were also correct here.

iii No, 0.6 × 0.3 ≠ 0.25 B1 ft Must have an answer to (i) P(B|A′) = 0.05 ÷ 0.4 = 0.125
≠ P(B)
Examiner's Comments

Almost all the candidates

earned this mark. Those
who were incorrect in (i)
usually scored the mark on
follow through.

Total 5

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 86 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

28 i 0.32 × 0.96 or 0.68 × 0.08 M1 Allow M marks for 0.8

instead of 0.08 or incorrect
1 – 0.68.

i Both, added. M1

i = 0.3616 A1 May be implied.

i 0.32 × 0.96 ÷ “0.3616” M1

i 0.850 A1
Allow 0.85 or

Examiner's Comments

Almost all candidates

scored full marks.

ii M1,A1 Allow 0.3072

ii Solve M1 Allow failure to multiply

brackets correctly, but NOT
divide instead of subtract or
vv.

ii p = 0.0238, so m = 2.38 A1

Examiner's Comments

Most candidates scored full

marks. A few lost the final
mark by saying m = 0.0238.
Some weaker candidates
could not solve the
equation.

Total 9

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 87 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

29 i M1

i = p + (1 – p)/n A1
Allow

i B1 Examiner's Comments

Almost all the candidates

scored full marks.

ii P(K ∩ A) = p B1

ii M1

ii A1 AEF

Examiner's Comments

Almost all the candidates

scored full marks.

iii If X answers are correct B1 70 seen

100 – X are incorrect
so score = 2X – 100 = 40
giving X = 70

iii P(A) = 5/8 B1

(α)

iii M1A1 Allow M1 from wrong p

iii P(X ≥ 70) = 1 – Φ [(69.5 – M1A1 Normal approximation.

62.5)/s] Allow M1 from 40/70 or
wrong p

iii = 0.0741 A1 Standardise M1 only if no or

wrong cc, A1 for 0.0607

iii (β) E(2X – 100) = 25 B1

iii Var(2X – 100) = 93.75 M1A1

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 88 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii P(2X –100 ≥ 40) = 1 – Φ M1A1 Standardise, M1 only for no

[(39 – 25)/ √(93.75)] or wrong cc, A1 for 0.0671

iii = 0.0741 B1

iii (ɣ) Score per question = S B1

iii M1A1

iii Total, T ∼ N(25, 93.75) M1A1 As for β

P(T ≥ 40) = 1 – Φ [39 – 25)/

√(93.75)]

iii = 0.0741 B1 Examiner's Comments

Over half the candidates

gained full marks, but there
were some very confused
attempts, muddling the
various methods given on
the mark scheme. Many
obtained an incorrect value
of p, using the answer to (ii)
instead of (i).

Total 13

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 89 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

30 i 0.74 × 0.3 alone M1 If 0.3 and 0.7 are

allow 0.072 interchanged consistently
A1 through all four parts, all M-
marks can be scored, but
Examiner's Comments no A-marks.

This question was well If 1 – 0.3 is calculated

answered. A few incorrectly (eg 0.6 or 0.66
candidates gave 0.75 × 0.3.
or ) consistently, lose the
A-mark in (i) but all other
marks are available on ft,
so long as 0 < ans < 1.

ii (0.7 + 0.72 + 0.73) × 0.3 M2 M1 for 1 term omitted, (1 – 0.74) – 0.3 or 0.7599 –
wrong or extra. 0.3 M2

must add terms, not mult. (1 – 0.74) – … or 1 – 0.3 –

… M1

0.7599 – … or 0.7 – … M1

Just 1 – 0.74 or 1 – 0.3: M0

(1+ 0.7 + 0.72 + 0.73) × 0.3

– 0.3 M2

1 term omitted, wrong or

extra M1

ii A1 Allow 0.46

Examiner's Comments

Candidates who used the

“straightforward” method
[i.e. P(X = 2, 3 or 4)] were
generally successful,
although a few added an
extra term. Those who tried
a more sophisticated
method [i.e. P(X < 5 – P(X <
2) or P(X > 1) – P(X > 4)]
generally made errors such
as (1 – 0.75) – 0.3 or (1 –
0.74) – 0.7 or 0.3 – 0.74. A
very common error was P(X
< 5) × P(X = 1).

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 90 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii 1 – 0.76 M2 M1 for 0.76 alone or 1 – 0.75 0.3(1 + 0.7 + 0.72 + 0.73 +
(= 0.832) 0.74 + 0.75) M2

or 1 – 0.77 (= 0.918) or (ii) + 0.3(1 + 0.74 + 0.75)

M2

or (i) + (ii) + 0.3(1 + 0.75)

M2

one term omitted or extra:

M1

must add terms, not mult.

NB ans 0.832 might be

M1M0A0 from omitting last
term. Could be, eg,

their (ii) + 0.3(1 + 0.74)

iii = 0.882 (3 sf) A1 Examiner's Comments correct working, but subtr

from 1: M1
Many candidates attempted
the standard method for this
type of question, i.e. 1 –
0.7r, but some had r = 5 or
7 instead of 6. Others
correctly found 1 – 0.76, but
then multiplied by 0.3.
Those who attempted the
“long” method often omitted
a term or added an extra
term. Some added terms to
their answer(s) to part(s) (i)
and/or (ii), but many of
these effectively omitted a
term or counted a term
twice.

iv (1 – “0.882”)2 × “0.882” oe M1 or (0.76)2 × (1 – 0.76) Not 0.72 × 0.3

or 0.11762× (1 – 0.1176)

or (0.76)2 × their “0.882”

or 0.3(0.712 +
(0.713 + 0.714 +… + 0.717))

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 91 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iv = 0.0122 (3 sf) A1ft allow 0.0123 Completely correct method

ft their “0.882” except if 0.3
Examiner's Comments or 0.7

Disappointingly few
candidates made use of
their answer to part (iii).
Some started from scratch,
and most of these were
unsuccessfully, although a
few correctly found (0.7)6 ×
(0.7)6 × (1 – 0.76) or (1 –
0.718) – (1 – 0.712). Many
misunderstood the question
completely and gave 0.72 ×
0.3.

Total 10

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 92 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

31 i M1 correct first step involving n

or complete correct method
for finding n

or

i n = 75 A1 Examiner's Comments

Although many candidates

had no problem with this
part, a disappointing
number appeared to have
trouble coping with simple
ratio and proportion. A
common incorrect response

was × 45 = 28.125,
rounded to 28. Another
common response was n =

45 × = 72.

ii M1

or 0.48 + 0.508 –
0.48×0.508
Completely correct method

ii A1 ft ft their integer answer to (i)

eg if their (i) is 28, ans

0.616 or M1A1ft

Examiner's Comments

This is a simple question

requiring the addition of
three numbers (or
subtraction of one number
from the total), followed by
division by the total.
However, presumably
because of unfamiliarity
with two-way tables, only a
minority of candidates used
this approach.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 93 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Some candidates tried to

use multiplication of
probabilities, i.e.
P(female)×P(adult) +
P(female)×P(child) +
P(male)×P(child). These
candidates generally failed
to realise that the second
probability in each product
must be a conditional
probability. A correct
version of this method is
possible, but this method is
unnecessarily long and was
rarely carried out correctly.

Many candidates added the

frequencies (or the
probabilities) for females
plus children, thus including
the female children twice.
Others added females plus
children plus female
children, thus including the
female children three times.

Perhaps these mistakes

were prompted by a
misunderstanding of the
phrase “or both” in the
question. A few correctly
added females plus children
and subtracted female
children.

iii M1 ie allow M1 if ‘2 ×’ is
(a)
omitted OR
if 25 instead of 24, but not
both errors

allow M1 for correct num or

denom

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 94 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii A1 Examiner's Comments NB long methods may be

correct, eg
Many candidates attempted
P(female child) × P(adult
male). Most of these made
one or both of two errors:
omission of “2 ×” and/or
failure to reduce the second

denominator to 24. Thus

and and

were frequently
seen.

A correct method using

combinations was seen, but
some candidates added 10
C1 and 6C1 in the numerator
instead of multiplying.
Others had a denominator
of 25 instead of 25C2.

iii (b) FA + MC or FC + MA M1 ie allow 25 instead of 24

AND
allow one case with × 2
or both cases without × 2
ie allow 25 and one of these
NB ft
two errors
their
cf scheme for (iii)(a)
(iiia)

NB ft their (iii)(a)

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 95 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii A1 allow M1 if one of these

fracts correct
NB 25C2 in denom NOT M1,
cao cf (iii)(a)

Examiner's Comments NB see note on long

methods in 7(iiia)
Mistakes made in part (i)
were carried over into this
part. Some candidates
found P(female child) ×
P(adult male), but not
P(adult female) × P(male
child). Some very common
errors involved such
working as P(female) ×
P(child) = .

Total 8

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 96 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

32 i (a) Binomial seen or implied M1 by use of table or

If is interpreted
consistently as 0.6 or 0.66
or 0.67 or 0.7, max marks:
(i)(a) M1M1A0 (i)(b) B0
(i)(c) B1ft B1ft (ii)
B1M1M1A0

Eg 0.6228 seen

i 0.6228 – 0.3497 M1

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 97 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i = 0.273 (3 sf) A1

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates used

incorrect versions of ,
such as 0.6, 0.66 and
0.666. Some did so
consistently throughout the
question. Others varied

their version of in different

parts. Some of those using
0.66 had to resort to the
column for 0.65 in the
binomial table. When
fractions are so easily
handled by calculators, it is
difficult to understand why
candidates shy away from

using .
A few actually appeared to

believe that , but

others seemed to be
(consciously or
unconsciously) using a
rounded decimal.
A few candidates treated
the situation as geometric
rather than binomial.

Some candidates omitted

the binomial coefficient.
Others just read a single
value (0.6228) from the
table.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 98 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i (b) 0.3497 or 0.350 (3 sf) B1 NB 0.3498 (from 0.6228 –

0.273) rounds to 0.350 so
B1

Examiner's Comments

Only candidates using

and using the tables
succeeded in this part. A
few found 1 – their answer
to part (i)(a) or 1 – 0.6228
(from the tables).

i (c) 6 B1ft

i 2 B1ft Examiner's Comments NB 2, 6 B0B0 unless

labelled correctly
Those who used np and
npq generally gained both
marks. Those who tried to
use Σxp and Σx2p – μ2
generally gained neither
mark.

ii 27 seen B1 not necessarily in a

statement

ii M1

ii M1 or attempt eg P(X1 = 1) ×
P(X2 = 8) × P(X3 = 9),

P(X1 = 2) × P(X2 = 7) × P(X3

= 9),

P(X1 = 3) × P(X2 = 6) × P(X3

= 9), etc

≥3 sets with X1 + X2 + X3 =
18 (not nec'y added) M1

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 99 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii = 0.161 (3 sf) A1 Examiner's Comments

Despite the broad hint, few

candidates seemed to
understand what was
required, and the simple

method using B(27, ) was

seen infrequently. Some
attempted to list some
triples which add up to 18,
but soon gave up. Many of
these failed to find the
probabilities of their triples,
which could have gained
them a mark. A few thought
that just 6, 6, 6 was
enough. Others counted
triples, and those who were
persistent arrived at a

probability of .
Unfortunately this method
ignores the fact that the
triples are not equally likely,
and so gained no marks.

Total 10

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 100 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

33 i (a) 0.9× 0.8 × 0.1 M1

i A1 Examiner's Comments

Most candidates answered

this correctly, although a
few gave 0.95 × 0.1.

i (b) 0.95 M1 Allow 0.94 or 1 – 0.95: M1 1 – (0.1 × +0.9 × 0.1 + 0.92

but 1 – 0.9n (n ≠ 5) or 0.1 × × 0.1 + …0.94 × 0.n
0.9n: M0 or 0.59 (2 sf)

i Al Examiner's Comments Allow without “1 –” OR omit

last term
Geometric distribution NB 0.95 × 0.1 = 0.0590
questions involving “before” MOAO
or “after” often cause
problems. Candidates are
confused as to whether a “1
–” is needed. Others think
that since it is a geometric
situation, “× p” must be
included. Also sometimes
there is confusion over the
power. In fact most
candidates answered this
question correctly, with a
few giving 0.94 or 1 – 0.95
or 0.95 × 0.1. Some used
the long method (ie the
complement method), but
(as usual) a few of these
omitted a term or added an
extra term.

i (c) 0.1 × 0.1 or [0.1 × 0.1 × M1 3 × 0.12 × 0.9 + 0.r no

0.9 + 0.1 × 0.1 × 0.1] oe incorrect multiples

i + 0.1 × 0.9 × 0.1 oe M1 M1M1 two correct terms, no M2 for 1st term; M1 for 2nd
incorrect multiples

i + 0.9 × 0.1 × 0.1 oe M1 M1 all correct

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 101 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i = 0.028 A1 Ans 0.027 probably This method only scores

M0M1M1A0 but check using “1 – ”: 0.93; 3 × 0.92 ×
working 0.1 no incorrect multiples
Ml; Ml
1 – one or both terms with
no further wking: M1(dep
M1)
eg 1 – 0.93 alone M1M0M1

i SC if no M-mks scored:
SSF, SSS, FSS, SFS
or SS, FSS, SFS seen or
implied: B1

Examiner's Comments

Only a few candidates used

the simplest method which
involves SS, FSS, SFS.
Few candidates answered
this question totally
correctly although many
gave partially correct
answers. Some gave only
0.12 × 0.9. Many gave 3 ×
0.12 × 0.9 but omitted +
0.13. Many included terms
such as 0.1 × 0.92. Some
used the complement
method, but most of these
only gave 1 – 0.93, omitting
to subtract 3 × 0.92 × 0.1
also.

ii (a) 0.9× 0.8 × 0.1 M1 alone or allow × 0.8 (ie girls NOT 0.9 × 0.8 × 0.1 × 0.2 =
in wrong order) 0.0144: MOAO

ii A1 (= 0.0576) NOT 0.9 × 0.8 × 0.2 =

0.144: MOAO
Examiner's Comments

This question was well

answered by most
candidates. A few misread
and thought Jill went first.
Others included success for
the wrong girl or for both
girls.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 102 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii (b) 0.99 or 10 × 0.8yorlu × 0.1 M1 allow 0.99 or 10 × 0.89 0r 10×

(or × 0.2, not × 0.1 × 0.2) 0.1 × 18,19,20C1 If ans =
0.00360 or 0.0150 see SC
below

ii (0.9 × 0.8)9 × 0.1 oe M1 fully correct

ii = 5.2 × 10–3 or 0.0052 (2 sf) A1 SC Consistent use of 0.8

for both girls: (ii)(a) 0.128
(ii)(b) 0.00360
or 0.9 for both girls: (ii)(a)
0.081 (ii)(b) 0.0150 If both
these ans seen, allow (a) 0
(b) B1

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates were

confused as to how many
failures were necessary for
each girl. Others included
success for the wrong girl
or for both girls.

Total 13

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 103 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

34 i M1

i M1

i A1 Examiner's Comments

Most candidates answered

this part correctly. A few
omitted the probability of
success at either the first
attempt or the third attempt.
Others thought that the
probability of success at the

third attempt was

instead of

. Only a few chose

the more elegant method

using the complement.

ii 0.6p or equiv seen B1 Tree diag alone insufficient NB 0.6 × 0.3 = 0.18 seen at
for mark. the end is

ii 0.4 + 0.6p = 0.58 M1 Or 0.6p = 0.18. “0.18” alone probably a check, not an
insufficient answer.

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 104 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii p = 0.3 A1 Examiner's Comments But if 0.3 seen and 0.18 is

very clearly indicated as the
Many good answers were ans then B1M1A0
seen. Some candidates
appeared not to understand
the difference between
P(he passes on the 2nd
attempt) and P(he passes
on the 2nd attempt, given
that he failed on the first),
giving an answer of 0.58 –
0.4 = 0.18. A few formed an
equation, but with the term
“0.4p” instead of “0.6p”.
Some found the correct
answer of 0.3 but then
unnecessarily continued by
using the formula

Others, having found the

correct value of 0.3,
continued with 0.6 × 0.3 =
0.18. If candidates did not
make clear that this last line
was only a check, rather
than an answer, they were
likely to lose the final mark.
Many candidates gave
incorrect attempts based on
misunderstandings of
conditional probability, such
as 0.4 ÷ 0.58 = 0.690.

Total 6

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 105 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

35 i (a) Binomial seen or implied B1 by tables or 10C3 or 10C7 or by 0.25a × 0.75b (a + b =

10)

i 0.7759 – 0.5256 or 10C3 × M1

(1 – 0.25)7 × 0.253

i = 0.250 (3 sf) A1 Allow 0.25

Examiner's Comments

This question was usually

answered correctly, usually
by the formula and
sometimes using tables. A
few candidates omitted the
binomial coefficient while
others only read one value
(0.7759) from the table, i.e
P(X ≤ 3) ). Others found 1 -
0.7759.

i (b) 1 – 0.5256 or M1 or P(X = 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10) NOT 1 – 0.7759 (P(X > 3)

all correct terms from table)

i 1 – ((1 – 0.25)10 + 10(1 – A1 Allow 10C8 instead of 10C2

0.25)9 × 0.25
+ 10C2(1 – 0.25)8 × 0.252) Examiner's Comments
= 0.4744 or 0.474 (3 sf)
A few candidates found 1 -
0.7759 (i.e. P(X > 3), or just
gave 0.7759 as the answer.
Others found 1 - P(X = 2).
Some (correctly) used the
formula to find 1 - P(X = 0,
1 or 2). This is not a
particularly long method,
but it is significantly longer
than finding 1 - P(X ≤ 2)
using the tables. Others
attempted various methods
not involving the binomial
distribution at all.

ii 0.4744 or 0.474) or 0.5256 M1 Their (i)(b) seen, or result of eg B(6, 0.474) or P(X ≥ 3) =
or 0.526 seen 1–(i)(b) seen 0.474

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 106 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii 1 – (1 – “0.4744”)6 oe M1 or P(X = 1,2,3,4,5,6) all

correct terms seen

ii = 0.979 (3 sf) A1f ft from (i)(b)

Examiner's Comments

A good number of
candidates answered this
question correctly. Many,
however, found this very
typical question difficult, not
appreciating its two-layered
structure. These candidates
gave answers such as

Other candidates used their

answer to part (i)(b) (thus
gaining one mark) but used
it in incorrect ways, such as
dividing it by 6 or by raising
it to the power of 6. Some
subtracted it from 1, which
is correct, but failed to take
the next two steps correctly.
A few candidates used their
answer to part (i)(a) instead
of (i)(b).

Total 8

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 107 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

36 i 12 × 10 × 5 (in numerators M1 or 12C1 × 10C1 × 5C1 or 600

or alone) (in numerators or alone)
OR any prod of 3
probs×6(or ×3! or 3P3)

i M1 or eg ( Fully correct method

)
˟3

i A1 Examples:
oe or 0.205 (3 sfs)

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates correctly

found but
either

failed to multiply by 6 or
multiplied by an incorrect
number, such as 3 or 4 or
12. Some added the three
fractions instead of
multiplying. A few added
12, 10 and 5 incorrectly,
and so started with a
denominator of, eg, 25
instead of 27. Some did the
question “with
replacement”.

ii M1 0.4 × p OR 0.6 × (1 – p) or
similar

ii M1 0.4 × p + 0.6 × (1 – p) =
0.54

ii 4x = 60 oe, two terms A1 p = 0.3

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 108 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii no. of red = 15 A1 no. of red = 15

T & I: Allow x = 15 as answer, but
or etc OR one trial not if contradicted later
(n ≠ 15) M1
Trial of n = 15 M1A1 If x↔(50 – x) or p ↔ (1 – p):
Answer stated A1 similar mks
including 1st A1 for p = 0.7
or x = 35
Correct answer scores full
marks unless clearly from
incorrect method.

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates were able

to form an algebraic term

such as ,

but most then either

equated this term alone to
0.54 or added it to a term

such as ,

using the same letter for

both unknowns. Some
realised that the second
unknown was not the same
as the first and wrote, for

example,

However, few realised that

there was a second
simultaneous equation,
namely x + y = 50. The
better scoring candidates

.wrote an equation such as

A few candidates muddled

red and blue, writing a
correct equation such

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 109 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

and correctly finding x = 35,

but then gave their answer
as 35 red discs, rather than
15. A few candidates used
a trial and improvement
method, some with
success. Several gave an
incorrect answer of 16 red
discs, being deceived by
the fact that this value does
give a probability of 0.54,
although only when
rounded to 2 significant
figures.

Total 7

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 110 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

37 i (a) X∼B(30, 0.05) seen or B1 eg by 0.8122 or 1 – 0.5535 If n = 15;

implied or 0.95r × 0.05s (r, s > 1) B(15, 0.05) B1
Allow B(30, 0.95) or B(30,
0.5) for B1 30 × 0.05 alone
insufficient for B1

i P(X > 2) = 1 – 0.8122 alone M1 n

Cr insufficient for B1 1 – (0.9515 + 15 × 0.9514 ×
or 0.05 +15C2 × 0.9513 × 0.052)
1 – (0.9530 + 30 × 0.9529 × M1
0.05 +
30
C2 × 0.9528 × 0.052)

i = 0. 1878 or 0.188 (3 sfs) A1 = 0.0362 A0

Examiner's Comments

A few misread the question,

using n = 15 throughout,
instead of both n = 30 and n
= 15.
The problem here was not
generally the use of the
binomial distribution but the
need to see through the
context and recognise that
a binomial calculation was
appropriate. In this part
there was a distinct
advantage to using tables
rather than the formula
(which is a much longer
method in this case). Some
candidates chose to use the
formula and made
arithmetical errors. Using
either method, some
candidates used B(30,
0.95) instead of B(30, 0.05).
Others used the correct
distribution but, in order to
find P(X < 2), they found 1 –
P(X = 1) instead of 1 – P(X
≤ 1). Some omitted the
binomial coefficients.

i (b) Addition method: B1 NB eg 0.0362 implies B(15, Subtraction methods:

X∼B(30, 0.05) & Y∼B(15, 0.05) see below X
0.05) stated or implied ∼B(30,0.05)&Y∼B(15,0.05)
stated or impl B1

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 111 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i P(X = 2) = (0.8122 – M1 P(X = 2) = (0.8122 –

0.5535) 0.5535) or 30C2 × 0.9528 ×
or 30C2 × 0.9528 × 0.052 or 0.052
0.2587/6 or 0.2587/6
OR P(Y > 1) = (1 – 0.9515) OR P(Y = 0) = 0.9515
or 0.5367 or 0.4633 M1

i “0.2587/6” x “0.5367” or M1 fully correct method for P(X fully correct method for P(X
0.1388 = 2) × P(Y ≥ 1) = 2) × P(Y = 0)
“0.2587” × “0.4633” or
0.1199/8 M1

i P(X > 2) + P(X = 2) × P(Y > M1 [their (a) + any p] alone, but 1 – (P(X = 0,1) + P(X = 2) ×
1) dep 1st M1 P(Y = 0)) = 1 – (“0.5535” +
= “0.1878” + “0.1388” alone “0.1199”)
OR P(X > 2) – P(X = 2) ×
P(Y = 0)) = (1 – “0.5535”) –
“0.1199”
dep 1st M1 M1

i = 0. 327 (3 sf) AG A1 = 0. 327 (3 sf) AG

A1

i For A1 must see correct If ans 0.327, check whether Do not use marks from a
wking or 0.3265/6… it comes from a correct mixture of 3rd column and
method (possibly not in MS) other columns. Decide
or clearly comes from an which column would give
incorrect method most marks and mark
eg (0.4465 + 0.2587) × according to that method.
0.4633 = 0.327
(ie (P(X > 2) + P(X = 2)) x
P(Y = 0)
B1M1M0M0A0

i If n = 15 for both distr’s, see

next page
NB If 0.1392 seen, it comes
from given answer – (i)(a)
(ie 0.3270 – 0.1878).

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 112 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i Alternative scheme for the If n = 15 for both distr’s

case where B(15, 0.05) B0
n = 15 is used for both
distr’s P(X = 2) = 15C2 × 0.052 ×
0.9513 or 0.1348
OR P(Y > 1) = 1 – 0.9515 or
0.5367 M1
“0.1348”x“0.5367” or 0.0723
correct method M1
their (i)(a) + “0.0732” Dep
1st M1 M1
= 0.1085 A0
NB Also mark subtraction
methods if seen.

i Examiner's Comments

A few misread the question,

using n = 15 throughout,
instead of both n = 30 and n
= 15.
Few candidates were able
to work their way through
this part correctly. Some
candidates found P(Y ≥ 1) =
1 – P(Y = 0 or 1) or P(Y ≥ 1)
= 1 – P(Y = 1). Some
candidates were close to
being correct, but found P(X
> 2) + P(X = 2) × P(Y = 0)
instead of P(X > 2) + P(X =
2) × (1 – P(Y = 0)). Many
complicated matters by
using the same letter (X) for
the number of defective
mugs in the second sample
as well as in the first.

ii Any use of 0.327 or their M1

(i)(b) for 1st M1

ii (1 – 0.327)3 × 0.327 + (1 – M1 (0.5535 + 0.2586 × 1 – 0.6735 – (1 – 0.6733) oe

0.327)4 × 0.327 0.4633)3 × 0.327 +
Allow “correct” use of their (0.5535 + 0.2586 × Allow any use of their (i)(b)
(i)(a) or 0.4633)4 × 0.327 for 1st M1 then if “correct”
(i)(b) for 2nd M1 use, also 2nd M1

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 113 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii = 0.167 (3 sf) A1 Allow use of their (i)(a) in

“correct” method for
M0M1A0
No marks for use of 0.95 &
0.05

ii Examiner's Comments

A few misread the question,

using n = 15 throughout,
instead of both n = 30 and n
= 15.
This is an example of a
common, “two-layered” type
of question, requiring the
use of a previously obtained
figure as the value of p in a
geometric (or binomial)
calculation. Candidates
would benefit from being
taught to look out for such
questions. Many candidates
used the correct geometric
structure but with p = 0.05
or with a probability equal to
their answer to part (i)(a)
instead of (i)(b). Others
attempted to use a binomial
distribution instead of a
geometric.

Total 11

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 114 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

38 i 1 × 0.4 + 3 × 0.3 + 5 × 0.2 + M1 ≥ 3 terms correct ÷ eg 4 M0

7 × 0.1

i =3 A1 Use of Σ(x – )2 × p:

i 12× 0.4 + 32× 0.3 + 52× 0.2 M1 ≥ 3 terms correct ÷ eg 4 M0 22 × 0.4 + 0 + 22 × 0.2 + 42
+ 72× 0.1 × 0.1 M2
or 2 correct non-zero terms
M1

i – “3”2 M1 Dep +ve result

i =4 A1
Examiner's Comments

Most candidates answered

this part well, although all
the usual errors were seen,
such as dividing Σx2p by 4
(or by 16), omitting to
subtract μ2 or subtracting
just μ. Those who
attempted Σ(x – μ)2p usually
made errors.

ii 775, 757, 577 B1 Must show all three Allow repeats, eg list of 6
orders
Alt method X1: 5 or 7, X2: 5
or 7; X3: 5 or 7
or X1, X2, X3 can be 5 or 7
B1

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 115 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii B1
Examiner's Comments

Some candidates failed to

write down the possible
sets of values for X1, X2
and X3 as requested,
giving, for example, just 5,
7, 7. Some of these
nevertheless obtained the
correct answer for the
probability, although many

gave . A good number of

candidates ignored the fact

that the values of X were
given in the table and made
long lists of irrelevant
combinations adding up to
19. A few attempted a
binomial calculation such as
7
C7 × 0.17 × 0.90. Some
candidates gave the
possible values of X1, X2
and X3, but then just gave
the given value of P(X1 = 7),
ie 0.1, ignoring the
condition that the total has
to be 19.

iii Binomial stated, or seen or B1 eg by 0.8r × 0.2s (r,s > 1) NB 0.0388 scores B1M0A0
implied with any n & p not just by nCr as it is 11C5 × 0.86× 0.85

11
iii C4 × 0.87 × 0.24 M1 Correct method

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 116 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder
 Mark Scheme

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii = 0.111 (3 sf) A1 Correct answer, no working

M1M1A1

Examiner's Comments

Many recognised that this is

a binomial calculation.
Some found P(5) instead of
P(4). Others omitted the
binomial coefficient. Some
candidates omitted this part
altogether, perhaps not
understanding what “Use
an appropriate formula …”
meant. (This wording was
intended to encourage
candidates to show their
working rather than just to
write down an unsupported
answer, obtained from the
binomial function on their
calculator).

Total 10

© OCR 2023. You may photocopy this page. 117 of 117 Created in ExamBuilder

Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)