Fens202 Spring 2025-6
Fens202 Spring 2025-6
Biological Context
You are working in a microbiology lab studying how bacteriophages (viruses that infect bacteria) influence
bacterial population dynamics in a controlled environment. You notice that, in the absence of phages, the
bacterial population can grow rapidly, but as soon as phages infect the bacteria, the bacterial population
declines. Meanwhile, the phage population increases when there are enough susceptible bacteria to infect
but collapses if bacteria become too scarce. These observations mirror “predator–prey” interactions, but
with bacteriophages as the predators and bacteria as the prey. By modeling these interactions, you aim
to understand under what conditions both populations can coexist, whether oscillatory dynamics arise,
and how changes in parameters (such as infection rates or phage mortality) might shift the outcome of the
infection process.
• A prey population N (t) (e.g., bacteria).
• A predator population P (t) (e.g., bacteriophages).
We model their interaction using the following system of ODEs:
dN N αN P
= rN 1− − ,
dt K 1+βN
dP = γ α N P − δ P.
dt 1+βN
In this model, r represents the intrinsic growth rate of the prey, capturing how quickly its population grows
in the absence of predation or other limitations. The carrying capacity K imposes an upper bound on
the prey population size, given finite environmental resources. The parameter α describes the base rate at
which predators consume prey, while β accounts for handling time or saturation (reflecting that a predator
cannot indefinitely increase its consumption). The conversion efficiency γ indicates how effectively the eaten
prey is translated into predator growth or reproduction. Finally, δ is the predator’s natural mortality rate,
determining how quickly predators die off in the absence of sufficient prey. All parameters are assumed
positive.
Tasks
1: Simulation
(a) Use the parameter values and initial conditions assigned to your group in Table 1 (below). Simulate
this system and plot the variables N (t) and P (t) vs. time.
(b) Plot the orbit (N (t), P (t)) in the state space for the given initial condition
2: Equilibria
(a) Analytically find all steady states (N ∗ , P ∗ ) of the system in terms of the parameters.
(b) Determine which equilibria are biologically admissible for positive parameter values and discuss the
biological meaning (predator extinction, prey extinction, coexistence, etc.).
3: Local Stability Analysis
(a) Apply local stability analysis to investigate the stability of all steady states J(N ∗ , P ∗ ).
(b) Compare your analytical stability results to your numeric simulations from Task 1.
4: Parameter Variation
Introduce a parameter h ∈ [0, 1] representing a scaled predator harvesting rate (extra mortality):
dP αN P
=γ − (δ + h) P.
dt 1+βN
(a) Check if there is a critical value hc for which the number or stability of equilibria changes.
(b) Pick values h < hc and h > hc . Numerically simulate and plot the trajectories; discuss changes in
stability or long-term behavior.
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Table 1: Group-Specific Parameters
Group r K α β γ δ N (0) P (0)
1 0.81 48.73 0.01 0.03 0.22 0.43 13.38 4.70
2 1.02 55.53 0.03 0.03 0.26 0.37 7.72 9.62
3 0.97 50.71 0.03 0.01 0.28 0.56 12.72 7.55
4 0.97 59.08 0.02 0.01 0.21 0.52 14.13 6.27
5 0.93 50.88 0.02 0.02 0.28 0.51 17.50 2.35
6 0.88 41.64 0.03 0.01 0.22 0.53 9.86 3.98
7 1.05 47.33 0.03 0.03 0.26 0.40 19.83 9.54
8 0.92 57.02 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.37 19.92 6.46
9 0.91 48.13 0.04 0.02 0.15 0.49 17.39 4.86
10 1.05 40.54 0.03 0.02 0.29 0.42 15.41 2.08
11 1.01 44.94 0.01 0.03 0.17 0.58 16.00 4.03
12 0.85 41.34 0.04 0.01 0.25 0.49 18.13 4.03
13 1.00 59.88 0.03 0.01 0.19 0.42 19.27 3.37
14 0.87 59.41 0.03 0.02 0.18 0.56 17.78 4.76
15 1.11 56.01 0.03 0.01 0.21 0.41 14.61 3.62
16 1.14 52.04 0.02 0.01 0.29 0.35 6.10 2.50
17 1.00 55.30 0.04 0.01 0.24 0.53 14.35 2.78
18 1.14 43.38 0.03 0.02 0.29 0.44 10.30 5.97
19 0.83 45.86 0.02 0.01 0.26 0.38 7.47 2.56
20 1.00 50.48 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.51 18.40 9.48
21 0.83 47.13 0.04 0.01 0.23 0.59 17.37 3.65
22 0.97 40.91 0.02 0.01 0.18 0.37 12.90 5.71
23 0.84 59.66 0.03 0.02 0.15 0.54 11.95 5.32
24 0.85 48.83 0.03 0.01 0.21 0.53 12.34 4.33
25 1.04 50.08 0.04 0.03 0.23 0.34 8.91 4.59
26 0.89 46.47 0.03 0.02 0.28 0.55 11.04 3.69
27 0.84 45.20 0.01 0.02 0.25 0.44 11.55 4.24
28 0.89 47.74 0.03 0.01 0.28 0.34 5.23 2.94
29 0.94 56.64 0.03 0.02 0.29 0.46 18.39 7.51
30 0.99 54.73 0.03 0.03 0.29 0.39 5.44 7.16
31 0.88 47.58 0.03 0.02 0.27 0.35 10.59 4.49
32 1.06 40.26 0.02 0.01 0.17 0.32 6.44 9.04
33 0.99 55.95 0.02 0.02 0.20 0.36 7.95 5.09
34 1.00 45.39 0.01 0.02 0.18 0.43 19.14 6.89
35 0.95 51.65 0.02 0.02 0.28 0.49 10.57 6.18
36 1.12 40.51 0.01 0.02 0.27 0.33 15.94 4.60
37 1.03 53.24 0.03 0.01 0.20 0.52 6.89 9.44
38 0.86 47.75 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.33 8.77 8.79
39 1.08 49.94 0.02 0.02 0.27 0.35 18.22 8.73
40 1.19 48.30 0.01 0.02 0.28 0.51 18.55 9.63
41 1.00 47.02 0.02 0.02 0.18 0.57 9.31 2.02
42 1.16 51.02 0.02 0.02 0.26 0.59 19.51 5.94
43 0.94 59.46 0.02 0.02 0.27 0.50 15.02 9.50
44 1.03 42.26 0.02 0.03 0.16 0.44 12.54 3.08
45 0.97 40.84 0.04 0.03 0.26 0.55 8.71 8.29
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