Investment - Unit 4 - Portfolio
Investment - Unit 4 - Portfolio
UNIT 4:
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT: CONCEPT
Rp = ∑ wi Ri
Where,
Rp is the Expected Return on the portfolio
Wi is the weight of security ‘i’ in portfolio
Ri is the return on security ‘i’
RP: PRACTICE QUESTION
Q. The returns on securities A and B are 10%
and 20% respectively. If the investor has these in
his portfolio in the ratio of 1:3. What is his
expected return from the portfolio?
Soln: Rp = ∑ wi Ri
WA= 0.25, wB = 0.75, RA=0.1, RB= 0.2
= 0.1*0.25 + 0.2*0.75 = 0.175
=17.5%
RP PRACTICE QUESTION (2)
Q. Mr. X has some money for investment. He invests
40% in securities of L Ltd which has expected return
of 16% and rest in securities of M Ltd which
provides a return of 12%. What is Mr X’s expected
return from the portfolio? What will be his return if
the proportions are reversed?
Soln: Rp = ∑ wi Ri
WL= 0.4, WM = 0.6, RL=0.16, RM= 0.12
= 0.4*0.16 + 0.6*0.12 = 0.136 =13.6%
• If proportions are reversed WL= 0.6, WM = 0.4
= 0.6*0.16 + 0.4*0.12 = 0.144 =14.4%
RP: PRACTICE QUESTION (3)
Q. Mr. X has Rs1,00,000 for investment. He expects
a return of 16%. He can invest in debentures
offering 15% and equity shares which provide a
return of 20%. Find the amount to be invested in
each security to achieve the target return.
Soln: Rp = ∑ w i Ri
RP= 0.16, RD=0.15, RE= 0.2;
Investment of Debenture = WD; Investment of Equity= WE
WD + WE =1, WE = 1- WD
= 0.16 = WD*0.15+ (1-WD)*0.2
WD= 0.8 = 80% ; WE = 20%
• Investment in Debentures = Rs 80,000 and Equity Rs 20,000
PORTFOLIO RISK: TWO SECURITY
PORFOLIO
𝑁
Cov12 = [σ𝑖=1(𝑅1𝑖 − 𝑅1)(𝑅2𝑖 − 𝑅2)]/𝑁
Where,
Cov12= Covariance between Securities 1 & 2
R1i = Return on Security 1 in year i.
R2i = Return on Security 2 in year i.
R1 = Average Return on Security 1
R2 = Average Return on Security 2.
N = Number of years
RELATED FORMULAS 3
𝑁
Cov12 = σ𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖 (𝑅1𝑖 − 𝐸𝑅1)(𝑅2𝑖 − 𝐸𝑅2)
Where,
Cov12= Covariance between Securities 1 & 2
R1i = Return on Security 1 for ith state of nature.
R2i = Return on Security 2 for ith state of nature
ER1 = Expected Return on Security 1
ER2 = Expected Return on Security 2.
N = states of nature
σp : Practise Question 1:
• Given the following information about a portfolio
made up in equal parts of securities X and Y:
Security Risk (standard deviation)
X 4
Y 7
Calculate portfolio risk when:
i. r= -1
ii. r= - 0.5
iii. r= 0
iv. r= 0.5
v. r= 1
• Comment on the same.
σp : Solution 1:
Soln: WX= 0.7, WY = 0.3, RX=0.15, RY= 0.18, rXY=1, σx=0.04, σy = 0.07
Rp = ∑ wi Ri = 0.7*0.15 + 0.3*0.18 = 0.159 =15.9%
𝜎𝑝 = 𝑤12 𝜎12 + 𝑤22 𝜎22 + 2𝑤1𝑤2𝜎1𝜎2𝑟12
𝜎𝑝 = 0.72 ∗ 0.042 +0.32 ∗ 0.072 +2 ∗ 0.7 ∗ 0.3 ∗ 0.04 ∗ 0.07 ∗ 1
𝝈𝒑 = 4.9%
Rp&σP PRACTICE QUESTION (3)
• Return of two securities with 4 possible states of nature
are:
State of nature pi R1 (%) R2 (%)
1 0.2 7 4
2 0.4 9 10
3 0.3 14 18
4 0.1 18 28
Find:
i. Expected return on security 1 & 2
ii. Expected risk on security 1 & 2
iii. Covariance & correlation between returns of 1 &2.
iv. Rp&σP of portfolio with 40% security 1 & 60% Security 2.
Rp&σP SOLUTION (3)
i. Calculation of Security Expected Return
ER1 = ∑piRi = 0.2*7+0.4*9+0.3*14+0.1*18 = 11%
ER2 = ∑piRi = 0.2*4+0.4*10+0.3*18+0.1*28 = 13%
ii. Calculation of Security Expected Return
pi R1i pi (R1i -ER1)2 R2i pi (R2i –ER2)2
0.2 7 0.03 4 0.16
0.4 9 0.02 10 0.04
0.3 14 0.03 18 0.08
0.1 18 0.05 28 0.23
∑= 0.12 0.5
𝝈𝟏 3.52% 𝝈𝟐 7.06%
Rp&σP SOLUTION (3) contd
iii. Calculation of Covariance and Coefficient of
correlation
Sta pi R1i R1i -ER1 R2i R2i –ER2 pi (R1i -ER1)(R2i –ER2)
te
1 0.2 7 -4 4 -9 7.2
2 0.4 9 -2 10 -3 2.4
3 0.3 14 3 18 5 4.5
4 0.1 18 7 28 15 10.5
Covariance = 24.6
Rp = ∑ wi Ri = 0.27*15+0.73*9 = 10.62%
𝜎𝑝 = 𝑤12 𝜎12 + 𝑤22 𝜎22 + 2𝑤1𝑤2𝐶𝑜𝑣12
𝜎𝑝
= 0.272 ∗ 5.32 +0.732 ∗ 22 +2 ∗ 0.27 ∗ 0.73 ∗ (−10)
𝝈𝒑 = 0.5%
MARKOWITZ THEORY
• Markowitz model is a theoretical framework for
analysis of risk and return and their inter-relationships.
• Markowitz emphasized that quality of a portfolio will
be different from the quality of individual assets within
it. Thus, the combined risk of two assets taken
separately is not the same risk of two assets together.
• Determines Efficient set of portfolio for investor
through 3 important variables:
– Return
– Risk
– Coefficient of Correlation
• Also called Full Covariance Model or Mean Variance
Model.
ASSUMPTIONS OF MARKOWITZ MODEL
X 14 2
Y 18 5
Z 30.5 9
βp = ∑ wi βi
Where,
βp = Coefficient of systematic risk of portfolio made
of n securities
βi =Coefficient of systematic risk of security ‘i'
i = Securities in the portfolio. i=1to n
wi =Proportion of security ‘i' in the portfolio
CAPM: RISK-RETURN RELATION –
PORTFOLIO OF SECURITIES
Rp = Rf + (Rm - Rf)* 𝜷𝒑
Where,
Rp = Expected return of the portfolio
Rf = Risk free rate of return or interest
Rm = Return on the market index
β𝑝 = Coefficient of systematic risk for portfolio
SECURITY MARKET LINE
SECURITY MARKET LINE
• SML explains the relationship between rate of
return of a security or portfolio with its β.
• It is a straight line with intercept ‘Rf’and slope
(Rm-Rf).
• If the return according to SML equation is >
actual return, security is overpriced. Don’t hold
security
• If the return according to SML equation is <
actual return, security is underpriced. Hold
security
LIMITATIONS OF CAPM
• Unrealistic assumption of no transaction cost
• Information is not simultaneously available
• Investors do not have homogeneous
expectations.
• Measuring beta is complex and may not
provide correct result in actual situations
COMPARISON OF CML & SML
CML SML
CML shows relationship between SML shows relationship between
required rate of return and total required rate of return and
risk systematic risk
CML can be used to study risk – SML can be used to study risk –
return relationship of only efficient return relationship of all portfolios
portfolios
CML cannot be used to study risk – SML can be used to study risk –
return relationship of individual return relationship of individual
securities securities as well as portfolios
CML is used to find optimal SML is used for determining over
portfolio and undervalued securities
CML is the outcome of Markowitz SML is the outcome of CAPM
model
CAPM: PRACTICE QUESTION (1)
• From the data given below, find which of the following
securities are under priced & overpriced using SML
equation or CAPM. The return on market index is 16%
and return on risk free asset is 5%.
Security Betai Actual Return (%)
A 1.6 20
B 0.5 12
C 1.8 22
D 2.5 30
E 0 8
CAPM: SOLUTION (1)
Ri = Rf + (Rm - Rf)* βi
• If the return according to SML equation is > actual return,
security is overpriced.
• If the return according to SML equation is < actual return,
security is underpriced.
Security Betai Actual Return RETURN (SML) REMARKS
(%) (%)
A 1.6 20 22.6 OVERPRICED
E 0 8 5 UNDERPRICED
CAPM: PRACTISE QUESTION 2
Q. Given the market risk premium is 9% & return on
risk free asset is 6%.
• What should be the return on security if β is 1.5.
• What is the return on market index?
• If market risk premium and return on risk free asset
remain the same; find the coefficient of systematic
risk for a security whose return is 33%.
Solution: Given: Rm – Rf = 9%, Rf = 6%, βi= 1.5
(i) Ri = Rf + (Rm - Rf)* βi = 6 + 1.5*9 = 19.5%
(ii) Rm – Rf = 9%, Rf = 6%. Thus Rm = 15%
(iii) If Ri’ = 33%; then 33=6+9*βi’. Thus, βi’ = 3
CAPM: PRACTICE QUESTION (3)
• Jardine Investment Ltd. manages a stock fund
consisting of 5 stocks with the following market values
and Betas:
STOCK Betai MARKET VALUE OF STOCK
A 1.08 15,000
B 1.03 25,000
C 0.06 40,000
D 0.08 70,000
E 1.2 50,000