Metrics for Project Planning:

COCOMO Models

CS 6406

R.L. Probert 1
 Overview
• Software project planning
• Role of metrics and planning models
• Model example
– COCOMO

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 Learning Outcomes
• Most widely-used software planning tool: COCOMO
• Gain experience with how to use this tool

• Details
– You are NOT expected to memorise the model
– You will need to be able to perform computations given a
model
– Only simple models will be expected in exam situations

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 Software Cost Estimation

R.L. Probert
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 Types of Planning Models
• Size-based models
– COCOMO: based on lines of code
– Uses statistical parameter estimation
• Function-point based
– Use notion of significant software “function”
• Input, output, function estimation
• Structure-based
– Examine structure of code
– Must have code already written/planned

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 Project Management and Mr. Murphy
1. Logic is a systematic method of coming to the wrong
conclusion with confidence.
2. Technology is dominated by those who manage what
they do not understand.
3. Nothing ever gets built on schedule or within budget.
4. If mathematically you end up with the incorrect
answer, try multiplying by the page number.

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 Motivation
Software cost estimation provides:
• vital link between the general concepts and techniques
of economic analysis and the particular world of
software engineering.
• Essential part of the foundation for good software
management.

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 Cost of a project
• The cost in a project is due to:
– the requirements for software, hardware and human resources
– the cost of software development is due to the human
resources needed
– most cost estimates are measured in person-months (PM)

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 Cost of a project (.)
• the cost of the project depends on
– the nature and characteristics of the project
• the accuracy of the estimate depends on the amount of
reliable information we have about the final product
– Good model (?)
– Good project plan (?)

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 Introduction to COCOMO models
• The COstructive COst Model (COCOMO) is the most
widely used software estimation model in the world
• The COCOMO model predicts the effort and duration of
a project based on
– inputs relating to the size of the resulting systems
– a number of "cost drivers" that affect productivity.

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 Overview of COCOMO
• Predictive model of man-hours for a project
• Statistical model
– Based on statistical analysis of prior projects

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 Typical Effort Vs Project Size Curve

Typical Log-linear Effort Curve

14000

12000

10000

8000
Effort

6000

4000

2000

0
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000
Lines of code

T. E. Potok - University of Tennessee

 Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO)
• Developed by Barry Boehm
• Statistical model of software development
effort and time.
• Base on results from 63 projects completed at
TRW.
• Basic model is a log-linear regression model
that fits the 63 projects
• Productivity ranges:
– 20 - 1250 LOC/PM

T. E. Potok - University of
Tennessee
 Basic COCOMO
• Organic - small to medium size, familiar
projects
– Person-months=2.4(KLOC)1.05
– Development-time = 2.5(PM).38
• Semidetached - intermediate
– Person-months=3.0(KLOC)1.12
– Development-time = 2.5(PM).35
• Embedded - ambitious, tightly constrained
– Person-months=3.6(KLOC)1.20
– Development-time = 2.5(PM).32

T. E. Potok - University of
Tennessee
 COCOMO Models
COCOMO Models

7000
Organic
6000 Semidetached
Embedded
5000
Person-months

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Thousands of lines of code

T. E. Potok - University of Tennessee

 Cost Drivers
• Product Attributes
– Required Reliability
– Database Size
– Product Complexity
• Computer Attributes
– Execution Time Constraints
– Main storage constraints
– Virtual Machine Volatility
– Computer turnaround time

T. E. Potok - University of
Tennessee
 More Cost Drivers
• Personnel Attributes
– Analyst Capability
– Application Experience
– Programmer Capability
– Virtual Machine Experience
– Programming Language Experience
• Project Attributes
– Modern Programming Practices
– Use of Software Tools
– Required Development Schedule

T. E. Potok - University of
Tennessee
 Example
• Need to produce 10,000 LOC (10 KLOC).
• Small project, familiar development
• Use organic model:
– Person-months=2.4(10)1.05 =26.9 Person-months
– Development-time = 2.5(26.9).38 =8.7 Months
– Average People = 26.9 PM/8.7 Months = 3 People
• Linear model
– 3 people would take 16.5 months, at 50 person-months

T. E. Potok - University of
Tennessee
 Example
• We also know that the design experience is low
– Analyst, - 1.19
– application, - 1.13
– programmer experience is low. - 1.17
• Yet the programming experience is high - .95
• Adjustment factor 1.19*1.13*1.17*.95 = 1.49
• PM = 26.9*1.49 = 40 Person-months
• Development time = 10.2 Months
• People = 3.9 People

T. E. Potok - University of
Tennessee
 Drawbacks
• COCOMO has to be calibrated to your environment.
• Very sensitive to change.
– Over a person-year difference in a 10 KLOC project with minor
adjustments
• Broad brush model that can generate significant errors

T. E. Potok - University of
Tennessee
 COCOMO 2.0
• Includes
– COTS and reusable software
– Degree of understanding of requirements and architectures
– Schedule constraints
– Project size
– Required reliability
• Three Types of models
– Application Composition – Prototyping/Bidding
– Early Design - Alternative evaluation
– Post-architecture - Detailed estimates

T. E. Potok - University of
Tennessee
 COCOMO 2 Models
• COCOMO is defined in terms of three different models:
– the Basic model,
– the Intermediate model, and
– the Detailed model.
• The more complex models account for more factors
that influence software projects, and make more
accurate estimates.

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 Effort
• Effort Equation
– PM = C * (KDSI)n (person-months)
• where PM = number of person-month (=152 working hours),
• C = a constant,
• KDSI = thousands of "delivered source instructions" (DSI) and
• n = a constant.

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 Productivity
• Productivity equation
– (DSI) / (PM)
• where PM = number of person-month (=152 working hours),

• DSI = "delivered source instructions"

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 Schedule
• Schedule equation
– TDEV = C * (PM)n (months)
• where TDEV = number of months estimated for software
development.

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 Average Staffing
• Average Staffing Equation
– (PM) / (TDEV) (FSP)
• where FSP means Full-time-equivalent Software Personnel.

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 The Development mode
• the most important factors contributing to a project's
duration and cost is the Development Mode
• Organic Mode: The project is developed in a familiar, stable
environment, and the product is similar to previously developed
products. The product is relatively small, and requires little
innovation.
• Semidetached Mode: The project's characteristics are
intermediate between Organic and Embedded.

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 The Development mode
• the most important factors contributing to a project's
duration and cost is the Development Mode:
• Embedded Mode: The project is characterized by tight, inflexible
constraints and interface requirements. An embedded mode
project will require a great deal of innovation.

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 Modes
Feature Organic Semidetached Embedded

Organizational Thorough Considerable General

understanding of
product and
objectives
Experience in Extensive Considerable Moderate
working with related
software systems

Need for software Basic Considerable Full

conformance with
pre-established
requirements

Need for software Basic Considerable Full

conformance with
external interface
specifications

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 Modes (.)
Feature Organic Semidetached Embedded

Concurrent Some Moderate Extensive

development of
associated new
hardware and
operational
procedures

Need for innovative Minimal Some Considerable

data processing
architectures,
algorithms
Premium on early Low Medium High
completion
Product size range <50 KDSI <300KDSI All

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 Relation between LOC and FP

• Relationship:

– LOC = Language Factor * FP

– where
• LOC (Lines of Code)
• FP (Function Points)

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 Relation between LOC and FP(.)

Assuming LOC’s per FP for:

Java = 53,
C++ = 64

aKLOC = FP * LOC_per_FP / 1000

It means for the SpellChekcer Example: (Java)

LOC=52.25*53=2769.25 LOC or 2.76 KLOC

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 Effort Computation
• The Basic COCOMO model computes effort as a
function of program size. The Basic COCOMO equation
is:
– E = aKLOC^b
• Effort for three modes of Basic COCOMO.

Mode a b

Organic 2.4 1.05

Semi- 3.0 1.12
detached
Embedded 3.6 1.20

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Example

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 Effort Computation
• The intermediate COCOMO model computes effort as a
function of program size and a set of cost drivers. The
Intermediate COCOMO equation is:
– E = aKLOC^b*EAF
• Effort for three modes of intermediate COCOMO.

Mode a b

Organic 3.2 1.05

Semi- 3.0 1.12
detached
Embedded 2.8 1.20

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 Effort computation(.)
• Effort Adjustment Factor

Cost Driver Very Low Nominal High Very Extra

Low High High
Required Reliability .75 .88 1.00 1.15 1.40 1.40
Database Size .94 .94 1.00 1.08 1.16 1.16
Product Complexity .70 .85 1.00 1.15 1.30 1.65
Execution Time Constraint 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.11 1.30 1.66
Main Storage Constraint 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.06 1.21 1.56
Virtual Machine Volatility .87 .87 1.00 1.15 1.30 1.30
Comp Turn Around Time .87 .87 1.00 1.07 1.15 1.15
Analyst Capability 1.46 1.19 1.00 .86 .71 .71
Application Experience 1.29 1.13 1.00 .91 .82 .82
Programmers Capability 1.42 1.17 1.00 .86 .70 .70
Virtual machine Experience 1.21 1.10 1.00 .90 .90 .90
Language Experience 1.14 1.07 1.00 .95 .95 .95
Modern Prog Practices 1.24 1.10 1.00 .91 .82 .82
SW Tools 1.24 1.10 1.00 .91 .83 .83
Required Dev Schedule 1.23 1.08 1.00 1.04 1.10 1,10

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 Effort Computation (..)
Total EAF = Product of the selected factors

Adjusted value of Effort: Adjusted Person Months:

APM = (Total EAF) * PM

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Example

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 Software Development Time

• Development Time Equation Parameter Table:

Parameter Organic Semi- Embedded
detached
C 2.5 2.5 2.5
D 0.38 0.35 0.32

Development Time, TDEV = C * (APM **D)

Number of Personnel, NP = APM / TDEV

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