Inflation, Unemployment and Policies
Inflation, Unemployment and Policies
Governments share the same main objectives of macroeconomic policy regardless of whether they
are developed, emerging or developing economies. In seeking to achieve these macroeconomic
objectives, governments can use a range of policies although each of these policies has its
limitations. There can also be conflicts among policy objectives. The main government
macroeconomic policy objectives are:
• full employment
• low and stable inflation
• equilibrium in the balance of payments position
• sustainable economic growth and avoidance of exchange rate fluctuations.
Traditionally, fiscal and monetary policies have been used in virtually all types of economies to
manage aggregate demand in order to achieve the government’s macroeconomic objectives.
FISCAL POLICY
Fiscal policy is the way in which governments manage aggregate demand by making changes to
taxation and government expenditure. This is the traditional Keynesian approach. Government
expenditure is financed by tax revenue. If projected government expenditure exceeds projected
revenue from many forms of taxation then there is a budget deficit. This is where the government
sees the need to reflate the economy by increasing aggregate demand. Normally this is in response
to a situation where there is need to expand the economy in order to create more jobs. When
government revenue from taxation exceeds the projected expenditure by the government on social
protection, health care, education, transport and so on then there is budget surplus. Here the
government has identified the need to deflate the economy by cutting back aggregated demand.
SUMMARY
When the government raises direct taxes, it lowers the household disposable incomes and therefore
aggregate demand for goods and services will decrease. The increase in tax will however raise
government revenue. The opposite is also true. An increase in government expenditure has the
effect of raising aggregate demand for goods and services. When this happens firms will have to
raise their supply as well in order to meet the increase in aggregate demand. Thus, through the
multiplier effect, this process will continue. This may also result in an increase in the level of
employment.
MONETARY POLICY
Monetary policies are usually implemented by the central bank of the country. In recent years in a
number of countries, changes in interest rates have been the main policy used to control inflation
and to influence economic activity. An increase in interest rate will tend to reduce aggregate
demand. This is because savings will be encouraged, borrowing discouraged and the spending
power of households who are borrowers will be reduced. This downward pressure on spending is
likely to reduce inflationary pressure but it may have an adverse effect on the balance of payments.
This is because a higher rate of interest will attract hot money flows into the country which will
raise the value of the currency and cause export prices to rise and import prices to fall. However,
there is a time lag between changing interest rates and change taking effect. It may take several
months for interest rate changes to fully work in the economy. A rise in interest rates may hit the
poor more than the rich as they are more likely to be net borrowers. Another monetary policy
instrument is the money supply. The regulation of money supply may bring stability in the
economy through various ways. An increase in money supply will raise aggregate demand for
goods and services. If this is done before full employment level, then the firms will respond to the
increase in households’ demand for goods and services by raising output and this may result in an
increase in the level of employment. However, if money supply increases at full employment level,
it puts pressure on prices to increase resulting in the level of inflation rising. An increase in money
supply may also cause a disequilibrium in the balance of payments by raising the marginal
propensity to import. A decrease in money supply will have opposite effects.
SUMMARY
• Attract hot money inflows, lowering the exchange rates and increasing the value of
domestic currency. The opposite is true.
Exchange rate policy covers government decisions on whether to influence the value of its
currency, whether to operate a fixed, managed or floating exchange rate and whether to link its
exchange rate to that of other countries. A government can influence the value of its currency by
changing its interest rate or buying and selling its own currency. Raising the value of the currency
will increase its purchasing power and put downward pressure on inflation. However, it may also
harm its balance of payments position and reduce economic activity. In contrast, reducing the value
of the currency may increase employment and growth, help the balance of payments position but
increase inflationary pressure. Operating a floating exchange rate allows market forces to
determine the value of its currency but may create some uncertainty. A fixed exchange rate
removes uncertainty but to maintain it the government may have to introduce policies which harm
its other macroeconomic objectives. For example, if there is a downward pressure on the exchange
rate, the government may raise taxes to discourage spending and thereby reduce expenditure on
imports. Such a measure may lower economic growth and increase unemployment.
These are policies designed to increase aggregate supply by improving the workings of product
and factor markets in an economy. Typical supply side policies are increasing incentives to work,
education and training, trade union reform, privatization and regulation. More people may be
encouraged to enter the labour force by cutting income tax and welfare benefits. This will increase
a person’s incentives from work and reduce the return from not working. Improving education and
training will raise workers’ productivity and increase their flexibility and mobility. Trade union
reforms may also increase workers’ flexibility and mobility and cut down on the number of days
lost through strikes. However, some supply side policies may have negative side effects e.g
reducing income tax may encourage some people to work fewer hours if they are currently satisfied
with their earnings. Lowering welfare benefits will not succeed in reducing unemployment if there
are no jobs available. Supply side policies tend to be long term and uncertain in their measurable
outcome as they require structural changes to be made to increase aggregate supply in the economy.
(b) UNEMPLOYMENT
Unemployment is the percentage of the labour force that is not employed but desires to be
employed. The unemployed are people able, available and willing to work at the going wage rate
but cannot find a job despite an active search for work. An economy facing mass unemployment
has an economic and social problem on its hands. The economic problem lies in the fact that some
factors of production are lying underutilized and wasted. Consumers want goods and services,
workers want to provide them, factories and work places are probably lying idle. Unemployment
simply means that scarce human resources are not being utilized produce goods and services to
meet peoples’ needs and wants. The social problem lies in the poverty that unemployment brings
with it and this involves not only a deprivation of material goods and services but also the feelings
of degradation and rejection that the unemployed feel. Poverty, both material and psychological is
the fate of the unemployed.
O A B C
Unemployment will occur if more people are seeking a job than are employed at the current wage
rate. On the diagram above if OC people want a job but only OA people have got jobs the AC
represents the amount of unemployment in the economy at a wage rate OE. Full employment in
the labour market exists where everyone who wants a job at the current wage has got one. However,
each market and industry has its own set of demand and supply curves. There could be
unemployment in one industry but excess demand at the going wage rate in some industries.
1. FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
This occurs when workers leave or are forced to leave a job and spent some time out of
work looking for or waiting to take up fresh employment. Frictional unemployment results
from the normal turnover of labour. An important source of frictional unemployment is
people who are in the process of changing their jobs and are caught between one job and
the other. Some may quit because they are dissatisfied with the type of work or their
working conditions. Others may be sacked. Whatever the reason, they must search for new
jobs and this takes time. People who are unemployed while searching for jobs are said to
be frictionally unemployed or alternatively in search unemployment. The size of frictional
unemployment depends very much on a number of factors. Firstly, the efficiency of a
system designed to link the employer with the job seeker has an important bearing on the
problem. This will include how well newspapers and other media can communicate and
how well private and public employment agencies link the two sides together. Obviously,
there are search costs involved in terms of lost earnings and travel expenses for such things
as interviews but can be viewed as investment. Improving the flow of information with
regards to the availability of particular employment is one such measure to remedy
frictional unemployment. Another remedy is also the reduction in unemployment related
benefits as helping to encourage the unemployed to seek work. It is however argued that
by reducing unemployment benefits, individuals will spend less time searching for another
job and therefore may end up in less appropriate jobs with a mismatch between their skills
and those required by the job. It is widely recognized by economists that the longer a person
can stay unemployed and still maintain a reasonable standard of living, the higher will be
the frictional unemployment. On the other hand, a reduction in the ratio of benefits to wages
will make unemployment less attractive. For a small minority of the unemployed, increases
in the benefits to wages ratio will mean that they effectively cease to look for work and
prefer to live permanently on welfare. For the majority, it will mean that they are a little
more choosey about the job they take up. This increase in choosiness will lead to an
increase in the average lengthy of time spent unemployed by job seekers.
2. STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Structural unemployment occurs when certain industries decline because of long term
changes in market conditions. For example, over the last 20 years UK motor vehicle
production has declined while car production in the far east has increased, creating
structurally unemployed car workers. The pattern of demand and method of production are
continually changing. There could be a change in the comparative costs of an industry.
C + I + G + (X – M) or AD2
C + I + G + (X – M) or AD1
Deflationary gap
450
Qe1 Qe2
demand from AD2 to AD1 has resulted in a decrease in full employment output from Qe2
to Qe1. When aggregate demand for goods and services decreases, it leads to a decrease in
demand for labour as firms reduce their output to match the decrease in demand. This leads
to demand deficient unemployment. A decrease in aggregate demand for goods and
services is a result of deflationary measures such as a decrease in money supply or an
increase in direct taxes. It is possible to use fiscal and monetary policy in
order to reduce demand deficient unemployment. Their use is referred to as demand
management and the aim is to influence the total demand for goods and services in the
economy. Fiscal policy can increase aggregate demand either through an increase in total
government expenditure or by a reduction of taxes or both. Monetary policy can also be
applied to reduce demand deficient unemployment. This can be done through increasing
money supply to raise aggregate demand for goods and services. Aggregate demand can
also be influenced by lowering interest rates. This will reduce the cost of borrowing for
consumption and so households will be able to borrow more for consumption raising
aggregate demand in the process.
It is called classical unemployment after the economists in the 1930s who believed that
unemployment was the result of real wages being too high. This can be explained
diagrammatically as follows.
S
Wu ----------------------------------------
We -------------------------------
O Qd Qe Qs
Assuming that the wage rate is Wu, then OQs units of labour will be supplied but only OQd
will be demanded. Hence unemployment of QdQs would exist. Neo classical economists argued
that workers would be prepared to accept lower wage rates in order to keep a job or get a job. If
the wage rates are reduced to We then QeQs of labour would no longer wish to work. On the
demand side, firms would wish to employ an extra QdQe of labour. The result of the reduction in
wages is equilibrium in the labour market. At a wage rate of We, there is no unemployment in the
labour market. Qe is the full employment level of the economy. This is because at the given wage
rate We, everyone who wants the job has got one. Real wage unemployment can also be called
disequilibrium unemployment.
5. TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT
This refers to unemployment that is regarded as the result of changes in technology. Such
changes in technology may mean that goods and services which previously used labour as
input are now more efficiently produced by using capital equipment or at least less labour
in relation to capital equipment than before the new technology was developed. However,
technical change cannot be avoided. It is arguably an important element in raising
productivity.
This is the voluntary unemployment which still exists even if the real wage is at the
equilibrium level which clears the labour market. This can be illustrated diagrammatically
as follows:
Ls
Lf
W ------------------------------- --------
Natural rate of unemployment
Ld
N1 N2
On the diagram above, Ld reflects the marginal revenue product (MRP) of workers i.e the
extra revenue earned from employing the last worker. This is downward slopping in line
with the assumption of diminishing marginal physical product (MPP) for workers. Labour
supply (Ls) represents all those workers willing and able to work at the prevailing wage
rate i.e they have the right skills and are in the right location to accept jobs at a given real
wage. The labour force (Lf) shows the total number of workers who consider themselves
to be members of the labour force at any given real wage. Of course not all of these are
willing and able to accept job offers, perhaps it is because they are still searching for a
better offer or because they have not yet acquired the appropriate skills or are not in an
appropriate location.
At the equilibrium real wage N1 workers are willing and able to accept job offers whereas
N2 workers consider themselves to be members of the labour force. That part of the labour
force unwilling or unable to accept job offers at the equilibrium real wage (N2 – N1) is
called the natural rate of unemployment (NRU). The NRU can be regarded as including
both the frictionally and structurally unemployed. It can be seen that anything that reduces
the labour supply ( i.e the numbers willing and able to accept a job at a given wage rate )
will, other things being equal, cause the NRU to increase. Possible factors may include an
increase in the level and availability of unemployment benefits therefore encouraging the
unemployed members of the labour force to engage in more prolonged search activity. An
increase in trade union power might also reduce the numbers willing and able to accept a
job at a given real wage especially if the trade union is able to restrict the effective labour
supply as part of a strategy for raising wages. A reduced labour supply might also result
from increased technological change or increased global competition both of which change
the nature of the labour market skills required for employment. Higher taxes on earned
income are also likely to reduce the labour supply at any given wage rate. Similarly,
anything that reduces the labour demand will, other things being equal, cause the NRU to
increase. A fall in the marginal revenue product of labour via a fall in marginal physical
productivity or in the product price might be expected to reduce labour demand.
7. SEASONAL UNEMPLYMENT
This occurs because some jobs are dependent upon whether and the season. Workers who
are employed to produce ice cream may lose their jobs in winter and so do producers of
warm clothing in summer.
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
Workers who lose their jobs receive unemployment benefits. The size of the benefit paid relative
to pay levels is known as replacement ratio. A high replacement ratio raises the NRU. It affects
the willingness of the unemployed to accept job offers and it affects the intensity with which they
search for work. Changes in the replacement ratio do have significant statistical effects on the
NRU. Differences in benefit systems between countries do seem to play a very important role in
explaining international differences in unemployment. Two other factors which have at least a
temporary effect on the NRU are the tax wedge and a terms of trade loss. The tax wedge is the
difference between what an employer has to pay to hire a worker and what the worker receives in
take home pay. Increasing the tax wedge for a given quantity of labour demanded reduces take
home pay. This is likely to increase wage bargaining pressure as a result of workers’ reluctance to
accept lower real wages. However, this has no long term effects on NRU as the tax wedge cannot
keep increasing. The terms of trade loss is also called real exchange rate depreciation. This is
argued to have a similar effect because it raises import prices and it also reduces real wages.
There are two main strategies for reducing unemployment and these are:
(a) Demand side policies to reduce demand deficient unemployment (unemployment caused
by recession).
(b) Supply side policies to reduce structural unemployment
FISCAL POLICY
In order to reduce demand deficient unemployment, there are two fiscal policy measures which
can be applied. The first option is to raise government expenditure. This will raise aggregate
demand since government expenditure is part of aggregate demand. An increase in government
demand means firms will have to raise output to match an increase in aggregate demand and this
increases demand for labour. Another option is to lower direct taxes. This raises household
disposable incomes, raising aggregate demand for goods and services in the process. This is known
as expansionary fiscal policy.
E=Y
C + I + G2 + (X – M) or AD2
C + I + G1 + (X – M) or AD1
𝟒𝟓𝟎
O Ye Ye1
The diagram above shows that when government expenditure increases from G1 to G2, aggregate
demand also increased from AD1 to AD2. This also has caused equilibrium level of national income
to increase from Ye1 to Ye2.
1. It depends on other components of AD, eg if confidence is low, reducing taxes may not
increase consumer spending because people prefer to save. Also, people may not spend tax
reductions if they will soon be reversed.
2. Fiscal policy may have time lags. A decision to increase government spending may take a
long time to affect demand (AD).
3. If the economy is close to full capacity, an increase in AD will only cause inflation.
Expansionary fiscal policy will only reduce unemployment if there is an output gap or spare
capacity in the economy.
4. Expansionary fiscal policy will require higher government borrowing. This may not be
possible for countries with higher levels of debt.
5. In the long run, expansionary fiscal policy may cause crowding i.e the government
increases spending but because they borrow from the private sector, they have less to spend
and therefore AD doesn’t increase.
MONETARY POLICY
There are two monetary policy instruments which can be applied to reduce unemployment in the
country.
The first option is to reduce interest rates. This has two effects:
(a) It increases investment spending in the economy since the cost of borrowing has decreased.
An increase in investment spending in the economy will result in the increase in aggregate
demand for goods and services which will obviously result in the increase in demand for
labour.
(b) It also makes it easier for households to borrow for consumption purposes. This again raises
aggregate demand for goods and services.
The second option is to increase money supply. This increases the level of liquidity in the economy
which will obviously result in the increase in aggregate demand. This is called expansionary
monetary policy.
With an increase in AD, there will be an increase in real GDP (as long as there is spare capacity
in the economy). If firms produce more, there will be an increase in demand for workers and
However,
1. Low interest rates may not help boost spending if banks are still reluctant to lend.
2. Raising money supply is inflationary if done at full employment since aggregate supply
cannot respond to an increase in aggregate demand.
3. Raising money supply may also improve households’ capacity to import and this may cause
disequilibrium in the balance of payments.
4. Lowering interest rates may discourage savings as it reduces the opportunity cost of
holding money. This means banks will find it difficult to mobilize savings which will cause
a very serious problem in the finance sector.
5. Demand side policies can contribute to reducing demand deficient unemployment e.g in a
recession. However, they cannot reduce supply side unemployment. Therefore, their
effectiveness depends on the type of unemployment that occurs.
Supply side policies deal with more microeconomic issues. They don’t aim to boost overall
aggregate demand but seek to overcome imperfections in the labour market and reduce
unemployment caused by supply side factors. Supply side unemployment includes frictional,
structural and classical (real wage).
1. Education and training. The aim is to give the long term unemployed new skills which
enable them to find jobs in developing industries e.g retrain unemployed steel workers to
have basic I.T skills which help them find work in the service sector. However, despite
providing education and training schemes, the unemployed may be unable or unwilling to
learn new skills. At best, it will take several years to reduce unemployment.
2. Trade union reforms. If unions can bargain for wages above the market clearing levels,
they will cause real wage unemployment. In this case reducing the influence of trade unions
(or reducing minimum wages) will help solve this real wage unemployment.
5. Stricter benefit requirements. Governments could take a more pro-active role in making
the unemployed accept a job or risk losing benefits. After a certain period, the government
could guarantee a public sector job (e.g cleaning streets). This could significantly reduce
unemployment. However, it may mean the government ends up employing thousands of
people in productive tasks which is very expensive.
6. Improved geographical mobility. Often, the unemployed are more concentrated in certain
regions. To overcome this geographical unemployment, the government could give tax
breaks to firms who set up in depressed areas. Alternatively, they can provide financial
assistance to unemployed workers who move to areas with high unemployment.
7. Maximum working week. It has been suggested that a maximum working week would
lead to firms needing to hire more workers and reduce unemployment. However, a
maximum working week may increase a firm’s costs and therefore they are not willing to
hire more. Also, there is no certainty the firm will respond to a cut in hours by employing
more.
(c) INFLATION
Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level price level. Inflation can come from both the
demand and the supply side of the economy.
(i) A rise in the rate of VAT would also be a cause of increased domestic inflation in the short
term because it increases a firm’s production costs.
(ii) Inflation can also come from external sources, for example a sustained rise in the price of
crude oil or other imported commodities, foodstuffs and beverages.
(iii) Fluctuations in the exchange rate can also affect inflation. For example, a fall in the value
of Zimbabwe dollar against other currencies might cause higher import prices for items
such as foodstuffs from other countries.
CAUSES OF INFLATION
E =Y
Inflationary gap C + I + G + (X – M) or AD
450
Yf Ye
The diagram above shows that at full employment aggregate demand (AD) is greater than
output. this exerts pressure on prices to rise as a result of the supply shocks.
When there is excess demand, producers can raise their prices and achieve bigger profit margins.
Demand pull inflation is likely when there is full employment of resources and aggregate supply
is inelastic. Using the shifts in aggregate demand curve and the aggregate supply curve we can
explain the phenomenon of demand pull inflation as follows:
AD4 AS
P2 -------------------------------------------
AD1 AD2 AD3
AD4
P1
AD1 AD2 AD3
An increase in aggregated demand from AD1 to AD2 will not alter the price level because it is
possible to adjust aggregate supply (AS) in line with the increase in aggregate demand since supply
is perfectly elastic within this output range. In general, supply responds to an increase in aggregate
demand and therefore there will be no inflation. However, an increase in aggregate demand from
AD3 to AD4 will put pressure on prices to rise. When aggregate supply is perfectly inelastic, an
1. A depreciation of the exchange rate increases the price of imports and reduces the foreign
price of a country’s exports. If consumers buy fewer imports while exports grow AD
will rise and there may be a multiplier effect on the level of demand and output.
2. Higher demand from a fiscal stimulus e.g lower direct or indirect taxes or higher
government spending will raise AD and this will cause a rise in inflation especially
aggregate demand increases when the economy is already at full employment.
3. Monetary stimulus to the economy. A fall in interest rates may stimulate too much demand
as households will borrow more for consumption. Monetarist economists believe that
inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods and governments can lose
control of inflation if they allow the financial system to expand the money supply too
quickly. An increase in money supply will raise aggregate demand which raises prices
if there is no excess capacity in the economy.
Cost push inflation occurs when firms respond to rising costs by increasing prices in order to
protect their profit margins. There are many reasons why costs might rise.
1 Component costs e.g an increase in the prices of raw materials and other components. This
might be because of a rise in commodity prices such as oil, copper and agricultural products
used in food processing. A good example in Zimbabwe is a surge in the price of imported
wheat which has seen the price bread rising.
2 Rising labour costs. This may be caused by wage increases which are greater than
improvements in productivity. Wage costs often rise when unemployment is low because
skilled workers become scarce and this can drive pay levels higher. Wages might increase
when people expect higher inflation so they ask for more pay in order to protect their real
incomes. Trade unions may use their bargaining power to bid for and achieve increasing
wages. This could be a cause of cost push inflation.
4 Higher indirect taxes. For example, a rise in the duty on alcohol, fuels and cigarettes or a
rise in value added tax. Depending on the price elasticity of demand and supply for their
products suppliers may choose to pass on the burden of the tax onto consumers.
5 A fall in the exchange rate. This can cause cost push inflation because it leads to an
increase in the prices of imported products. Such as essential raw materials, components
and finished products.
6 Profit push inflation or monopoly employers. Where dominant firms in the market use
their market power at whatever level of demand to increase prices just to widen their profit
margins. This is usually done by monopolies which take advantage of the absence of
competitors in the industry.
AS2
AS1
P2 ----------------
P1 ----------------------------
Y2 Y1
Cost push inflation occurs when firms respond to rising costs by increasing their prices to
protect profit margins. An increase in the price of inputs such as the price for fuel,
electricity, raw materials etc will result in the decrease in supply. A decrease in supply will
then result in the increase in prices pushing inflation high.
TYPES OF INFLATION
1. Creeping inflation.
Creeping or mild inflation is when prices rise by 3% or less per year. When prices rise by
2% or less, it benefits economic growth. This kind of mild inflation makes consumers
expect that prices will keep going up. That boosts demand. Consumers buy now to beat
higher future prices. That’s how mild inflation drives economic expansion.
2. Walking inflation.
3. Galloping inflation.
When inflation rises to 10% or more it is called galloping inflation. It wreaks absolute
havoc on the economy. Money loses value so fast that business and employee income can’t
keep up with costs and prices. Foreign investors avoid the country, depriving it of needed
capital. The economy becomes unstable, and government leaders lose credibility.
Galloping inflation must be prevented at all costs.
4. Hyperinflation
Hyperinflation is when prices sky rocket more than 50% a month. Most examples of
hyperinflation occur when governments print money to pay for wars. Zimbabwe’s
inflation is typical of hyperinflation. It has resulted
Inflation can be reduced by policies that slow down the growth of AD and or boost the rate of
growth of aggregate supply.
a) Fiscal policy
b) Monetary policy
A tightening of monetary policy involves the central bank introducing a period of higher
interest rates to reduce consumer and investment spending. Higher interest rates may cause
the exchange rate to appreciate in value bringing about a fall in the cost of imported goods
and services and also a fall in demand for exports (X). The central bank can also reduce
money supply to deflate the economy. This reduces aggregate demand resulting in the
decrease in prices. Increasing interest rates and reducing money supply are part of tight
monetary policy measures to control inflation. It is also called contractionary monetary
policy.
Supply side policies seek to increase productivity, competition and innovation, all of which
can maintain lower prices. These are ways of controlling inflation in the medium term.
1. Privatisation.
This involves selling state owned assets to the private sector. It is argued that the
private sector is more efficient in running businesses because they have a profit
motive to reduce costs and develop better services.
2. Deregulation
This involves reducing barriers to entry to allow new firms to enter the market. This
will make the market more competitive. Competition tends to lead to lower prices
and better quality goods and services.
S
WU --------------------------------
W1 ----------------------
D
L1 L* L2
The diagram above shows that when trade unions raised the wage rate from W1 to
Wu, the demand for labour decreased from L* to L1 leaving L* - L1 workers
unemployed. This will obviously affect aggregate supply leading to supply shocks
in the economy. The consequence is the rise in prices leading to an increase in
inflation as well.
10. Policies to open the market to more competition to increase supply and lower
prices. Rising productivity will cause an outward shift of aggregate supply.
11. The public sector annual pay rises can be tightly controlled or even frozen. This
reduces the real wage.
ADVANTAGES OF INFLATION
frozen which is effectively a real wage cut. If we had zero inflation, we could end up with
more real wage unemployment, with firms unable to cut wages to attract workers.
DISADVANTAGES OF INFLATION
(d) The cost of changing prices lists becomes more frequent during high inflation. Not so
significant with modern technology.
(e) Fall in real wages and real incomes. In some circumstances, high inflation can lead to a
fall in real wages and real incomes. If inflation is higher than nominal wages, then real
incomes fall and people will suffer a fall in their standard of living. Fixed income earners
are more affected than profit earners. The salaried will seek higher incomes, the self
employed and companies push the higher cost to their customers by raising prices.
(f) Fall in real interest rates and an increase in nominal rates. Inflation reduces the
opportunity cost of holding money therefore discouraging savings. Those who are in debt
such as companies and individuals who have borrowed and others who need to borrow
will have to seek higher incomes and revenue in order to meet the higher interest
requirements. An increase in interest rates will discourage investment. A fall in investment
will cause a slowdown or even negative growth in the economy.
The Phillips curve is an economic concept developed by A.W. Phillips stating that inflation and
unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. Proponents of demand-pull inflation argue
that the level of unemployment in the economy is a good measure of the level of excess demand.
High levels of unemployment show that there is little or no excess demand and hence inflationary
pressures are minimal. However, as unemployment declines the economy moves nearer to full
employment.
Before full employment, there is excess capacity in the economy and therefore aggregate supply
can simply respond to increase in aggregate demand. There is no upward pressure on prices and
hence inflation is very low although unemployment is high. At full employment level,
unemployment is very low and there is excess demand as supply cannot fully respond to changes
in demand. This exerts upward pressure on prices raising inflation.
Generally, low aggregate demand leads to low output. the decrease in output leads to an increase
in unemployment. Low aggregate demand generally leads to a decrease in prices leading to a
decrease in inflation. This is a situation commonly known as deflation. As all industries reach full
capacity, inflationary pressures will really begin to mount. The nearer one gets to full employment,
the more inflation there will be in the economy.
y % ------- B
x % ------------------------A
Unemployment rate
market. An increase in aggregate demand causes the economy to shift to a new macroeconomic
equilibrium which corresponds to a higher output level and a higher price. Consequently, firms
hire more workers leading to lower unemployment but a higher inflation rate. Such a short-run
event is shown in a Phillips curve by an upward movement from point A to point B. This scenario
is referred to as demand-pull inflation.
Deflation means a fall in the price level. This is a negative rate of inflation. A deflationary gap is
the difference between the full employment level of output and actual output. in a recession, the
deflationary gap might be quite substantial, indicative of the high rates of unemployment and under
used resources. A deflationary gap is also known as a negative output gap.
E=Y
C + I + G + (X – M) or AD
deflationary gap
450
Qe1 Yf
If there is insufficient demand in the economy, the equilibrium will occur at a lower level of income
and to the left of a full employment line. At any particular time, there is a level of national income
Yf which is attained, will be sufficient to keep all resources in the economy fully employed. This
is the full employment level of national income. On the diagram above, the full employment line
is represented by the vertical line Yf. The diagram shows that if there is insufficient demand in the
economy, the equilibrium will occur at a lower level of income and to the left of the full
employment line. The distance between the 450 line and AD line at full employment level of
income is referred to as the deflationary gap.
If an economy experiences a deflationary gap, then it will have the following impact on the wider
macro economy.
• Rising unemployment. We will get demand deficient unemployment and possibly higher
structural unemployment.
• Low/negative rates of economic growth.
• Negative impact on government’s budget. With lower economic growth, the government
will receive lower tax revenue and lower government spending.
• Low rates of inflation/ disinflation which is deflation. With a deflationary gap, firms
have excess capacity. This tends to put downward pressure on prices and wages.
An inflationary gap is the gap between an economy’s full employment real GDP and its real GDP.
In other words, the inflationary gap refers to the difference between the actual gross domestic
product (GDP) and the GDP that would exist if the economy were at full employment. This is also
known as the potential GDP. In the case of an inflationary gap, the real GDP is higher than the
potential GDP. In practice, an inflationary gap happens when demand for goods and services is
greater is greater than production as a result of situations like high employment, high government
expenditure and high levels of trade activity. Then the real GDP ends up higher than the potential
GDP. It is called an inflationary gap because the higher real GDP leads to higher levels of
consumption throughout the economy increasing prices over time. To describe this process more
specifically, consumers experience higher levels of demand for goods and services because there
are more funds available throughout the economy meanwhile supply has not caught up with this
higher demand as production levels do not usually increase as quickly as consumer demand does.
As a result prices increase in order to return the market to equilibrium.
Diagram
E =Y
Inflationary gap C + I + G + (X – M) or AD
e
450
Yf Qe
On the diagram above, the equilibrium level of national income appears to be to the right of the
full employment line. At full employment level, aggregate demand is greater than aggregate
national output, therefore there is pressure on prices to increase. The equilibrium national output,
where AD = AS, appears to the right of the full employment level of output.
The major problem associated with the deflationary gap is that at full employment level, aggregate
demand is lower than real output level being produced therefore the economy is in the recessionary
period. This causes a decrease in prices. In order to close the deflationary gap, policies which seek
to raise the level of AD in the economy should be applied and these are:
In order to close the deflationary gap, the government can lower taxes in order to raise the
disposable incomes of households. This will raise household consumption spending,
raising AD in the process. The government can also raise government expenditure in order
to raise AD. However, raising government expenditure will, through the multiplier effect,
result in a more than proportionate increase in the real national output which will continue
to widen the deflationary gap. Again, reducing taxes and raising government spending will
plunge the government into a very serious economic problem of a budget deficit. Therefore,
the government will have to borrow from the private sector to cover the deficit. This is
called an expansionary fiscal policy
(i) Raising money supply is inflationary. If household demand for goods and services
increases, this will raise prices especially when this happens at full employment.
We will begin to see more money chasing too few goods.
(ii) Raising money supply will raise the level of imports in the country causing balance
of payments disequilibrium.
The policies which can be applied to close the inflationary gap are simply the opposite of
those required to close the deflationary gap.
5 In a country with a population of 20 million, there are 9 million people employed and 1
million unemployed. Calculate the unemployment rate?
A 11%
B 10%
C 9%
D 5%
7 Which policy would be most suitable for reducing the unemployment level?
A restricting imports
B increasing tax rates
C increasing exports
D increasing personal tax allowances
12 How would the government deal with the twin evils of hyperinflation and unemployment?
Hyperinflation Unemployment
14 Zimbabwe’s steel industry is closed down as buyers switch their purchases of steel to
another country. What type of unemployment will result from this?
A cyclical
B frictional
C seasonal
D structural
A a budget surplus.
B a decline in the velocity of money.
C an increase in the velocity of money.
D a deterioration in the profit expectations of business.
18 Deflation involves
19 Which of the following measures is not consistent with a deflationary monetary policy?
A banning retrenchments.
B training job seekers.
C increasing unemployment benefits.
D availing information on jobs available to prospective job seekers.
24 Other things being equal, what is likely to immediately result from a fall in inflation?
A a capital inflow
B an increase in consumption
C an increase in investment
D a fall in unemployment
25 Stagflation refers to
27 Overtime, the national rate of unemployment may fall as a result of the following except
28 The diagram shows the rate of wage increase and the rate of unemployment.
O Rate of unemployment
29 Below is the demand and supply curve for labour on the market.
SL
W1
W0 -------------------------------
DL
Quantity of labour
A Frictional
B Classical
C Cyclical
D Structural
31 Some economists now believe that a low but positive inflation rate is good for the economy
because workers
A will accept a cut in real wages caused by inflation more readily than they will accept
a cut in nominal wages.
B will accept a cut in real wages caused by a cut in nominal wages more readily than
they would accept a cut in real wages caused by inflation.
C are indifferent between a cut in real wages caused by a cut in nominal wages and a
cut in real wages caused by inflation.
D will accept a cut in nominal wages caused by a cut in real wages more readily than
they would accept a cut in nominal wages caused by inflation.
A rate of deflation.
B rate of unemployment.
C increase in injections needed to reach full employment.
D increase in withdrawals needed to reach full employment.
34 The table below shows categories of goods and services in the consumer basket for an
economy.
What has been the percentage increase in the price index since the base year?
A 17%
B 20%
C 117%
D 120%
35 If the government’s priority is to reduce the natural rate of unemployment, which measure
would be inappropriate?
36 Economists who favour supply-side policies would tend to support the government playing
A fiscal policy.
B indigenisation policy.
C monetary policy.
D supply side policy.
A taxation.
B budget deficit.
C a budget surplus.
D the balance of payments deficit.
40 Assuming the demand for oil is price elastic, the effect on demand-pull inflation and on
cost-push inflation in an oil importing country of an increase in the world price of oil will
be
A a reduction a reduction
B a reduction an increase
C an increase a reduction
D an increase an increase
43 Zimbabwe is experiencing a balance of payment deficit and a high rate of inflation rate.
A increase in subsidies.
B increase in income tax.
C improved quality of labour.
D privatization and deregulation.
A deflation.
B depression.
C recession.
D stagflation.
47 During an economic recession sales decline leading to some workers losing their jobs. This
type of unemployment is referred to as
A cyclical.
B frictional.
C structural.
D technological.
Under 15 20
Employed 16
Pensioners 9
Unemployed 4
Physically unable to work 1
Total population 50
A 8%
B 10%
C 20%
D 32%
A the proportion of the workforce which choose to remain unemployed when the
labour market is equilibrium.
B workers who choose not to accept employment at the existing wage rate.
C the proportion of the workforce which is unable to find jobs despite being prepared
to accept work at the existing wage rate.
D workers who lose jobs because wages are at such a high level that demand for labour
is exceeding supply.
1991 3075
1992 2974
1993 3414
1994 3769
1995 3936
1996 3736
1997 3454
1998 3334
1999 3034
2000 2766
By what percentage did the level of unemployment change from 1991 to 2000?
A It fell by 10.05%
B It rose by 3.35%
C It rose by 11.17&
D It fell by 3.09%
53 The unemployment rate is 5%. The labour force is 100 million and population is 200
million. Calculate the number of people unemployed.
A 2 million
B 5 million
C 10 million
D 500 million
54
55 Weights are used in calculating the consumer price index to reflect the different
59 Changing of education curriculum to suit the demands of the industry leads to reduction in
A cyclical unemployment.
B frictional unemployment.
C structural unemployment.
D seasonal unemployment.
Unemployment rate is
A 20%
B 30%
C 50%
D 60%
ESSAY QUESTIONS
2. (a) Why is inflation often viewed as ‘an enemy of the state’? [10]
(b) Discuss the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing inflation in your country. [15]
(b) Discuss whether it is the government’s responsibility, and to what extent should it
intervene, to reduce the rate of inflation. [15]
4. (a) In recent years, the rate of inflation in many countries has been low. Suggest
[12]
possible reasons why rate may be low.
(b) Discuss what policy measures a government may adopt if the rate of inflation were
to become unacceptably high. [13]
(b) Discuss whether a low rate of inflation should be the economic priority of a
government. [15]
6. (a) Clearly outline the types of inflation affecting your country. [10]
7. (a) Explain in detail demand pull and cost push inflation. [10]
(b) Clearly evaluate measures taken by the government to reduce the effects of inflation
in Zimbabwe. [15]
(b) Discuss the policies that government could adopt to counter a high rate of inflation.[15]
(b) Clearly evaluate the effectiveness of demand – side policies in reducing the level
of unemployment in your country. [15]
(b) Evaluate the policies which the government can apply to reduce unemployment in
your country. [15]
10. (a) Distinguish between Real wage and Technological unemployment [10]
(b) Outline the supply side policies which can be adopted to get rid of unemployment. [15]
11. (a) Account for the present level of unemployment in Zimbabwe. [10]
(b) In recent years, a number of countries have experienced a recession. What are the
main characteristics of an economic recession? [15]
12. (a) Explain the relationship that exists between inflation and unemployment. [10]
(b) Why is it necessary for any country to address the issue of unemployment. Explain
the fiscal measures which the government can take to address the issue of
[15]
unemployment in your country.
13. (a) What are the causes of unemployment in your country? [10]
(b) Discuss how the unemployment in your country could be reduced. [15]
(b) Evaluate the effectiveness of policies that can be used to reduce an inflationary gap
in your country. [15]