Name: _______________________________________________

Chapter 2 Conditional Probability

Year 13

Date:

Time:

Total marks available: 89

Total marks achieved: ______

 Questions
Q1.

Three bags, A, B and C, each contain 1 red marble and some green marbles.
Bag A contains 1 red marble and 9 green marbles only
Bag B contains 1 red marble and 4 green marbles only
Bag C contains 1 red marble and 2 green marbles only
Sasha selects at random one marble from bag A.
If he selects a red marble, he stops selecting.
If the marble is green, he continues by selecting at random one marble from bag B.
If he selects a red marble, he stops selecting.
If the marble is green, he continues by selecting at random one marble from bag C.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

(2)
(b) Find the probability that Sasha selects 3 green marbles.
(2)
(c) Find the probability that Sasha selects at least 1 marble of each colour.
(2)
(d) Given that Sasha selects a red marble, find the probability that he selects it from bag B.
(2)

(Total for question = 8 marks)

Q2.

The Venn diagram shows the probabilities associated with four events, A, B, C and D

(a) Write down any pair of mutually exclusive events from A, B, C and D
(1)
Given that P(B) = 0.4

(b) find the value of p

(1)
Given also that A and B are independent

(c) find the value of q

(2)
Given further that P( B' | C ) = 0.64

(d) find
(i) the value of r
(ii) the value of s
(4)

(Total for question = 8 marks)

Q3.

A large college produces three magazines.

One magazine is about green issues, one is about equality and one is about sports.
A student at the college is selected at random and the events G, E and S are defined as follows
G is the event that the student reads the magazine about green issues
E is the event that the student reads the magazine about equality
S is the event that the student reads the magazine about sports
The Venn diagram, where p, q, r and t are probabilities, gives the probability for each subset.

(a) Find the proportion of students in the college who read exactly one of these magazines.
(1)
No students read all three magazines and P(G) = 0.25

(b) Find
(i) the value of p
(ii) the value of q
(3)

Given that P(S | E) =

(c) find
(i) the value of r
(ii) the value of t
(4)
(d) Determine whether or not the events (S ∩ E') and G are independent.
Show your working clearly.
(3)

(Total for question = 11 marks)

Q4.

The Venn diagram, where p and q are probabilities, shows the three events A, B and C and their
associated probabilities.

(a) Find P(A)

(1)
The events B and C are independent.

(b) Find the value of p and the value of q

(3)

(c) Find
(2)

(Total for question = 6 marks)

Q5.

The Venn diagram, where p, q and r are probabilities, shows the events A, B, C and D and associated
probabilities.

(a) State any pair of mutually exclusive events from A, B, C and D

(1)
The events B and C are independent.

(b) Find the value of p

(2)

(c) Find the greatest possible value of

(3)

Given that

(d) find the value of q and the value of r

(3)
(e) Find P([A∪B]' ∩ C)
(1)
(f) Use set notation to write an expression for the event with probability p
(1)

(Total for question = 11 marks)

Q6.

(a) State one disadvantage of using quota sampling compared with simple random sampling.
(1)
In a university 8% of students are members of the university dance club.

A random sample of 36 students is taken from the university.

The random variable X represents the number of these students who are members of the dance club.

(b) Using a suitable model for X, find

(i) P(X = 4)
(ii) P(X ≥ 7)
(3)
Only 40% of the university dance club members can dance the tango.

(c) Find the probability that a student is a member of the university dance club and can dance the tango.
(1)
A random sample of 50 students is taken from the university.

(d) Find the probability that fewer than 3 of these students are members of the university dance club and
can dance the tango.
(2)

(Total for question = 7 marks)

Q7.

Given that

find

(a) P(A′ | B′)

(2)
(b) Explain why the events A and B are not independent.
(1)
The event C has P(C) = 0.20

The events A and C are mutually exclusive and the events B and C are statistically independent.

(c) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the events A, B and C, giving the probabilities for each region.
(5)
(d) Find P( [B ∪ C]′)
(2)

(Total for question = 10 marks)

Q8.

The Venn diagram shows the probabilities of customer bookings at Harry's hotel.
R is the event that a customer books a room
B is the event that a customer books breakfast
D is the event that a customer books dinner
u and t are probabilities.

(a) Write down the probability that a customer books breakfast but does not book a room.
(1)
Given that the events B and D are independent

(b) find the value of t

(4)
(c) hence find the value of u
(2)
(d) Find
(i) P(D|R ∩ B)
(ii) P(D|R ∩ B′ )
(4)
A coach load of 77 customers arrive at Harry's hotel.

Of these 77 customers
40 have booked a room and breakfast
37 have booked a room without breakfast
(e) Estimate how many of these 77 customers will book dinner.
(2)

(Total for question = 13 marks)

Q9.

A health centre claims that the time a doctor spends with a patient can be modelled by a normal
distribution with a mean of 10 minutes and a standard deviation of 4 minutes.

(a) Using this model, find the probability that the time spent with a randomly selected patient is more than
15 minutes.
(1)
Some patients complain that the mean time the doctor spends with a patient is more than 10 minutes.

The receptionist takes a random sample of 20 patients and finds that the mean time the doctor spends
with a
patient is 11.5 minutes.

(b) Stating your hypotheses clearly and using a 5% significance level, test whether or
not there is evidence to support the patients' complaint.
(4)
The health centre also claims that the time a dentist spends with a patient during a routine appointment,
T minutes, can be modelled by the normal distribution where T ~ N(5, 3.52)

(c) Using this model,

(i) find the probability that a routine appointment with the dentist takes less than 2 minutes
(1)
(ii) find P (T < 2 | T > 0)
(3)
(iii) hence explain why this normal distribution may not be a good model for T.
(1)
The dentist believes that she cannot complete a routine appointment in less than 2 minutes.

She suggests that the health centre should use a refined model only including values of T > 2

(d) Find the median time for a routine appointment using this new model, giving your answer correct to
one decimal place.
(5)

(Total for question = 15 marks)

 Mark Scheme
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