UNIT 2 PLANNING

Planning
• Planning is deciding in advance what to do, how to do it, when to
do it, and who is to do it. It bridges the gap from where we are to
where we want to go - Koontz and O’Donnell.
• Planning is a mental predisposition to do things in orderly way, to
think before acting and to act in the light of facts rather than guess
- Urwick.
• Planning is deciding the best alternative among others to perform
different managerial operations in order to achieve the
predetermined goal - Henry Fayol.
• Planning is deciding in advance what is to be done. It involves the
selection of objectives, policies, procedures and programmes from
among alternatives – M.E.Hurley
• Definition of Louis A. Allen :
• In the words of Louis A. Allen, “Management planning involves
the development of forecasts, objectives, policies, progrmmes,
procedures, schedules and budgets
 Importance of planning (Merits or
advantages of planning
As the primary function of management, planning is considered vital in every sphere of activity.
The importance of planning may be stated as follows:
1. It focuses on objective
Once the objective of the business has been fixed, the next step is to prepare a plan for its
effective accomplishment. The enterprise objective cannot be realised overnignt. It has to be
achieved gradually over a certain period.
2. It helps to avoid wastage of resources
Planning makes it possible to make optimum use of the available resources, namely, time,
money, materials and machines. This is possible as the employees and the executives know
beforehand what they have to do.
3. It ensures efficiency as well as effectiveness
Efficiency is ensured by doing right things and effectiveness is achieved by doing things right.
Planning helps to do not only right things but also things right. Each department knows what it
is supposed to do well in advance as a result of planning.
• 4. It reduces risk and uncertainty
• Planning is for future use and future is uncertain. While
planning, future uncertainties are anticipated and adequate
provisions are made to meet or overcome the same.
• 5. It provides for co-ordination
• The work done in any organisation is a team-work.
Different departments participate in the process of goal
attainment. Planning makes the responsibilities of each
individual and department very clear. Thus, planning by
explaining the responsibilities of each individual and
department provides scope for co-operation and co-
ordination.
• 6. It facilitates control
• If planning is the first function of management, Control is
the last function. Planning withoutncontrol is useless and
control without planning is meaningless. Control helps the
enterprise to know whether the plan has been successfully
implemented and the objective has been achieved.
• 7. Planning also provides scope for decentralisation
• Dispersal of authority throughout the organisation is what
is known as decentralisation. Once the basic and
derivative plans of the enterprise have been prepared, the
next step is to explain the same to all the subordinates
who are going to perform the various tasks.
Planning Process
(or)
Steps in Planning

1–6
 Steps in planning
Being Aware of opportunities
Market, competition, Customers, Strengths Weakness

Establishing objectives
Where we want to be, what to achieve and when

Developing premises
In what environment ( I & E), scenarios

Determining alternative courses

How many and which are most promising

Evaluating alternative courses

In the light of objectives

Selecting a course

Formulating derivative plans

Quantifying plans by budgeting

 1. Being aware of opportunities
• All managers should take look at future
opportunities and see them clearly and
completely.
• They should know their strengths and
weakness, understand what problems they
wish to solve and why, and know what they
expect to gain.
• Setting realistic objectives depends on
(i) About market
(ii) About expected competition
(iii) What customers wants
 2. SETTING OBJECTIVES
• The second step in planning is to establish or
set objectives
• Objectives specify the expected results and
indicate the end points of
(i) What is to be done
(ii) Where the primary emphasis is to be
placed (iii) What is to be accomplished by
the strategies, policies, procedures, rules,
budgets and programs.

1–9
 3. DEVELOPING PREMISES
• It is important for all the managers involved
in planning to agree on the premises.
• Forecasting is important in premising: What
kind of markets will be there? What
volume of sales? What prices? What
products? What technical developments?
What cost? Etc

1–10
4. INDENTIFYING ALTERNATIVE COURSES OF ACTION

• to search and examined alternative

courses of actions.
• The planner must usually make
preliminary examination alternative
courses to accomplish the goal.

1–11
 5. EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE COURSES

• After determining alternative courses and

examining their strong and weak points, the
next step is to evaluate the alternatives.

1–12
 6.SELECTING A COURSE
• Selecting an alternative is the real point of
decision making. This is the point at which
the plan is adopted.
• the manager has to decide one best
alternative or several alternative courses of
action.

1–13
 7.FORMULATING DERIVATIVE PLANS

• The seventh step in planning is

formulating derivative plans.
• When a decision is made next step is to
formulate a supporting plan, such as to
buy equipment, materials, hire and train
workers and develop a new product.

1–14
 8. Quantifying Plans by Budgeting

• the final step in planning is to quantify

them by converting them into budgets.
• The overall budgets of an enterprise
represent the sum total of income and
expenses with resulting profit.

1–15
TYPES OF PLANS

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 TYPES OF PLANS
• Strategic Plans
– Apply to the entire organization.
– Establish the organization’s overall goals.
– Seek to position the organization in terms of its
environment.
– Cover extended periods of time.
• Operational Plans
– Specify the details of how the overall goals are to be
achieved.
– Cover a short time period.
 TYPES OF PLANS
• Long-Term Plans
– Plans with time frames extending beyond three years
• Short-Term Plans
– Plans with time frames of one year or less
• Specific Plans
– Plans that are clearly defined and leave no room for
interpretation
• Directional Plans
– Flexible plans that set out general guidelines and provide
focus, yet allow discretion in implementation
 TYPES OF PLANS

• Single-Use Plan
– A one-time plan specifically designed to meet the
need of a unique situation.

• Standing Plans
– Ongoing plans that provide guidance for activities
performed repeatedly.
20
 WHAT IS AN OBJECTIVE?
Terms Goals & Objectives used interchangeably.
Are important ends towards which organizational & individual activities
are directed.

State what is to be accomplished in singular, specific, and

measurable terms with a target date.

NATURE OF OBJECTIVES:

Verifiable

Supported by sub objectives

Hierarchy & Network

Multiple, like goals

Relationship of objectives and the organizational
Hierarchy

1. Socio-
economic
purpose Board of
directors
2. Mission

3. Overall objectives of the

organization (long-rage, strategic) Top-level
management

4. More specific overall objectives (e.g, in

key result areas (Some)

5. Division objectives Middle – level

(Some) managers

6. Department and Unit objectives

7. Individual objectives Lower-level

• Performance managers
• Personal development objectives

Hierarchy objectives organizational Hierarchy

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.

MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVE
(MBO)

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 MBO
– MBO is a management practice which aims to increase organizational
performance by aligning goals and subordinate objectives throughout the
organization.
Description: MBO requires all levels of management to agree on clearly defined
quantitative and/or qualitative objectives. These targets then need to be
periodically reviewed by higher levels of management.

– Concept given by Peter Drucker in 1954.

– Specific performance goals are jointly determined by employees and managers.

– Progress toward accomplishing goals is periodically reviewed.

– Rewards are allocated on the basis of progress towards the goals.

– Key elements of MBO:

• Goal specificity, participative decision making, an explicit performance/evaluation
period, feedback
 STEPS INVOLVED IN MBO
1. The organization’s overall objectives and strategies are formulated.
2. Major objectives are allocated among divisional and departmental units.
3. Unit managers collaboratively set specific objectives for their units with
their managers.
4. Specific objectives are collaboratively set with all department members.
5. Action plans, defining how objectives are to be achieved, are specified and
agreed upon by managers and employees.
6. The action plans are implemented.
7. Progress toward objectives is periodically reviewed, and feedback is
provided.
8. Successful achievement of objectives is reinforced by performance-based
rewards.
 Essential Steps for MBO
lSet Goals lDevelop Action Plan
–The most difficult step. –Course of action
–Concrete –For both workgroups and individuals
–Specific target and timeframe
–Assign responsibility

lReview Progress
–Periodicity?
–Course corrections

lAppraise Overall Performance.

–How are we doing?
–Do we need to restate our goals?
 Does MBO Work?
• Reason for MBO Success/ Benefits:

– Top management commitment and involvement

– Strong motivational environment
– Communication is enhanced
– Appraisals can be more objective
– Provides systematic management philosophy
– Facilitates Control
Potential Problems with MBO Programs

•Not as effective in dynamic environments that require constant

resetting of goals.

•Overemphasis on individual accomplishment may create problems

with teamwork.

•Allowing the MBO program to become an annual paperwork shuffle.

 Policies
• A policy in Management is a general statement which is
formulated by an organization for the guidance of its personnel.
The objectives are first formulated and then policies are planned
to achieve them. Policies are a mode of thought and the principles
underlying the activities of an organization or an institution.
• According to Koontz & O ‘Donnel, “Policies were identified as
guides to thinking in decision-making. They assume that when
decisions are made, these will fall within certain boundaries.”
Policies do not require action, but are intended to guide managers
in their decision commitments when they do not make decisions.
• In the words of George Terry, “Policy is a verbal, written or implied
overall guide setting up boundaries that supply the general limits
and direction in which managerial action will take place.”
• Policies provide a framework within which a person has freedom
to act.
• 4 Important Types:
• Formulated,
• Implied,
• Imposed and
• Appealed Policies
•
• Type # 1. Formulated Policy:
• A formulated policy is one which is specified
by the organization for providing guidelines to
its members. Most of the policies in large
organizations fall in this category as every
organization formulates various policies on
different aspects including HRM. Such a policy
flows from higher levels to lower levels in the
organization.
• This policy may be broad giving general guidance for the
action or may be spelled completely so as to leave little
scope for definition and interpretation.
• These actions might constitute the policy. Sometimes, the
organization has clearly expressed policies for its image but
it is not able to enforce these.
 Type # 2. Implied Policy:
• Sometimes, policies may not be clearly stated, and
the actions of managers particularly at the higher
levels provide guidelines for actions at lower levels.
In such a case, the action of a decision maker,
consciously or unconsciously, depends on his own
guidelines, prejudices, and whims.
• Moreover, in the absence of any specific guidelines,
decision is based on individual interpretation of the
situations and consequent actions. However, such
actions may create chaos in the organization.
 Type # 3. Imposed Policy:

• Imposed policy arises from the influence of

some outside agencies. Such agencies may be
government which provides HR and other
policies for all public-sector organizations,
parent organizations overseas in the case of
multinational companies operating in a
country, apex company of a business house, or
trade association with which a particular
organization is attached.
• These agencies may either provide complete
guidelines on a subject matter or provide a broad
framework for devising specific policies. For
example, in public sector commercial banks,
recruitment and selection is done by Banking
Service Commission, and individual banks do not
have any control over this aspect, or a holding
company may provide compensation policy for its
subsidiary companies, and so on.
 Type # 4. Appealed Policy:
• An appealed policy arises from the appeal made by
a subordinate manger to his superior for deciding
an important case. The need for such an appeal
may arise because the particular case has not been
covered by any policy. The appeal is taken upward
and the decision made on the case sets a precedent
which becomes policy providing guidelines for
deciding similar cases in future.
• However, appealed policies are mostly
incomplete and uncoordinated. As such, if
frequent appeals are made, managers should
visualize and review their policy formulation,
its communication, and interpretation so that
policy guidelines become more clear and
specific.
STRATEGIES – TYPES

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 STRATEGIES
• A broad program for defining & achieving an
organization’s objectives; the organization’s response to its
environment over time.

• The decisions and actions that determine the long-run

performance of an organization.

• Strategies contain goals, policies, and action sequences

• Strategic Management is what managers do to develop

organization’s strategies

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 Mintzberg’s 5 P’s
Strategy can be characterised as a:
Outwitting a rival

• Ploy Place in the market

A powerful group
• Position A consciously intended course of action,

• Perspective general or specific

• Plan
• Pattern
The Strategy Focused Organization
Mission:
“Why we exist”
Core Values:
“What we believe in”

Vision: “What we want to be”

Strategy: “Our game plan (how to win)”

Goals For Implementing Strategy (Metrics):

“What we need to do”

OUTCOMES

Satisfied Delighted Effective Motivated and

Shareholders Customers Process Prepared
Workforce
 Strategic management
• Strategic management is the management of an
organization’s resources to achieve its goals and
objectives.
• Strategic management involves setting objectives,
analyzing the competitive environment, analyzing
the internal organization, evaluating strategies, and
ensuring that management rolls out the
strategies across the organization.
The Strategic Management Process
SWOT analysis of strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities,and threats.

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• Strategy formulation refers to the process of
choosing the most appropriate course of
action for the realization of organizational
goals and objectives and thereby achieving
the organizational vision
• Strategy implementation is the activities within a
workplace or organisation designed to manage
the activities associated with the delivery of a
strategic plan.
• Strategy Implementation refers to the execution
of the plans and strategies, so as to accomplish
the long-term goals of the organization. It
converts the opted strategy into the moves and
actions of the organisation to achieve the
objectives.
• Strategy evaluation is the process by which
the management assesses how well a chosen
strategy has been implemented and how
successful or otherwise the strategy is.
• To simply put, strategy evaluation entails
reviewing and appraising the strategy
implementation process and measuring
organizational performance
Levels of Organizational Strategy
 Setting Objectives
• Principles to be followed in setting objectives:
• 1. Objectives have to be practically achievable. The
organization must be able to do some thing to
achieve each objective that it has set.
• 2. The objectives have to support the enterprise
purpose, its contribution to the customer.
• 3. If long range objectives and short range
objectives are specified, there must be integral
relationship between them.
• 4. At various points of time prioritization among
objectives may be required.
• 5. Objectives have to be specific and actionable
and verifiable
• 6. Objectives have to planned. There are the
result of planning process or activity.
• 7. Objectives have to be communicated to those
charged with building plans to meet them.
 Planning premises
• Def – Koontz O’Donnell
• “Planning premises are the anticipated environment in
which plans are expected to operate. They include
assumptions or forecast of the future and known
conditions tht will affect the operations of plans. Eg as
prevailing
• policies and existing company plans that control the
basic nature of supporting plans.
• - Purpose of premises is to facilitate the planning
process by guiding, directing, simplifying and reducing
the degree of uncertainty in it. Premises guide
planning.
Planning Tools
Techniques for Assessing the Environment
• List the different approaches to assess the environment.
• Explain what competitor intelligence is and ways that managers can do
it legally and ethically.
• Describe how managers can improve the effectiveness of forecasting.
• List the steps in the benchmarking process.
Techniques for Allocating Resources
• List the four techniques for allocating resources.
• Describe the different types of budgets.
• Explain what a Gantt chart and a load chart do.
Techniques for Allocating Resources (cont’d)
• Describe how PERT network analysis works.
• Understand how to compute a breakeven point.
• Describe how managers can use linear programming.
Contemporary Planning Techniques
• Explain why flexibility is so important to today’s planning techniques.
• Describe project management.
• List the steps in the project planning process.
• Discuss why scenario planning is an important planning tool.
 Assessing the Environment
• Environmental Scanning
– The screening of large amounts of information to
anticipate and interpret change in the environment.
– Competitor Intelligence
• The process of gathering information about competitors—
who they are; what they are doing
– Is not spying but rather careful attention to readily accessible
information from employees, customers, suppliers, the Internet,
and competitors themselves.
• May involve reverse engineering of competing products to
discover technical innovations.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
• Environmental Scanning (cont’d)
– Global Scanning
• Screening a broad scope of information on global forces
that might affect the organization.
• Has value to firms with significant global interests.
• Draws information from sources that provide global
perspectives on world-wide issues and opportunities.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
• Forecasting
– The part of organizational planning that involves
creating predictions of outcomes based on
information gathered by environmental scanning.
• Facilitates managerial
decision making.
• Is most accurate in
stable environments.

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Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
• Forecasting Techniques
– Quantitative forecasting
• Applying a set of mathematical rules to a series of hard data
to predict outcomes (e.g., units to be produced).
– Qualitative forecasting
• Using expert judgments and opinions to predict less than
precise outcomes (e.g., direction of the economy).
• Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
Replenishment (CPFR) Software
– A standardized way for organizations
to use the Internet to exchange data.
© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All
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 Exhibit 9–1 Forecasting Techniques

•Quantitative
• Time series analysis
• Regression models
• Econometric models
• Economic indicators
• Substitution effect
•Qualitative
• Jury of opinion
• Sales force composition
• Customer evaluation

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Making Forecasting More Effective
1. Use simple forecasting methods.
2. Compare each forecast with its corresponding “no
change” forecast.
3. Don’t rely on a single forecasting method.
4. Don’t assume that the turning points in a trend can be
accurately identified.
5. Shorten the time period covered by a forecast.
6. Remember that forecasting is a developed managerial
skill that supports decision making.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Benchmarking
• The search for the best practices among
competitors and noncompetitors that lead to
their superior performance.
• By analyzing and copying these practices,
firms can improve their performance.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–2 Steps in Benchmarking

Source: Based on Y.K. Shetty, “Aiming High: Competitive Benchmarking for

Superior Performance,” Long Range Planning. February 1993, p. 42.
© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All
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 Allocating Resources
• Types of Resources
– The assets of the organization
• Financial: debt, equity, and retained earnings
• Physical: buildings, equipment, and raw materials
• Human: experiences, skills, knowledge, and
competencies
• Intangible: brand names, patents, reputation,
trademarks, copyrights, and databases

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Allocating Resources: Budgeting
• Budgets
– Are numerical plans for allocating resources (e.g.,
revenues, expenses, and capital expenditures).
– Are used to improve time, space, and use of
material resources.
– Are the most commonly used
and most widely applicable
planning technique for
organizations.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–3 Types of Budgets

Source: Based on R.S. Russell and B.W. Taylor III. Production and Operations
Management (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995), p. 287.
© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All
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 Exhibit 9–4 Suggestions for Improving Budgeting

• Collaborate and communicate.

• Be flexible.
• Goals should drive budgets—budgets should not determine
goals.
• Coordinate budgeting throughout the organization.
• Use budgeting/planning software when appropriate.
• Remember that budgets are tools.
• Remember that profits result from smart management, not
because you budgeted for them.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Allocating Resources: Scheduling
• Schedules
– Plans that allocate resources by detailing what
activities have to be done, the order in which
they are to be completed, who is to do each, and
when they are to be completed.
– Represent the coordination of various activities.

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 Allocating Resources: Charting
• Gantt Chart
– A bar graph with time on the horizontal axis and
activities to be accomplished on the vertical axis.
– Shows the expected and actual progress of various
tasks.
• Load Chart
– A modified Gantt chart that lists entire departments
or specific resources on the vertical axis.
– Allows managers to plan and control capacity
utilization.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–5 A Gantt Chart

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–6 A Load Chart

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 Allocating Resources: Analysis
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
– A flow chart diagram that depicts the sequence of activities needed
to complete a project and the time or costs associated with each
activity.
• Events: endpoints for completion.
• Activities: time required for each activity.
• Slack time: the time that a completed activity waits for another activity
to finish so that the next activity, which depends on the completion of
both activities, can start.
• Critical path: the path (ordering) of activities that allows all tasks to be
completed with the least slack time.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–7 Steps in Developing a PERT Network

1. Identify every significant activity that must be achieved for a project

to be completed.
2. Determine the order in which these events must be completed.
3. Diagram the flow of activities from start to finish, identifying each
activity and its relationship to all other activities.
4. Compute a time estimate for completing each activity.
5. Using the network diagram that contains time estimates for each
activity, determine a schedule for the start and finish dates of each
activity and for the entire project.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–8 Events and Activities in Constructing an Office Building

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–9 A Visual PERT Network for Constructing an Office Building

Critical Path: A - B - C - D - G - H - J - K

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Allocating Resources: Analysis (cont’d)
• Breakeven Analysis
– Is used to determine the point at which all fixed costs
have been recovered and profitability begins.
• Fixed cost (FC)
• Variable costs (VC)
• Total Fixed Costs (TFC)
• Price (P)

• The Break-even Formula:

Total Fixed Costs
Breakeven :
Unit Price - Unit Variable Costs

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–10 Breakeven Analysis

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Allocating Resources: Analysis (cont’d)
• Linear Programming
– A technique that seeks to solve resource
allocation problems using the proportional
relationships between two variables.

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 Exhibit 9–11 Production Data for Cinnamon-Scented Products

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–12 Graphical Solution to Linear Programming Problem

Max.
Assembly
Max.
Manufacturing

Max.
Profits

Max.
Assembly
Max.
Manufacturing

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Contemporary Planning Techniques
• Project
– A one-time-only set of activities that has a definite
beginning and ending point time.
• Project Management
– The task of getting a project’s activities done on time,
within budget, and according to specifications.
• Define project goals
• Identify all required activities, materials, and labor
• Determine the sequence of completion

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–13 Project Planning Process

Source: Based on R.S. Russell and B.W. Taylor III, Production and Operations Management (Upper
Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995), p. 287.
© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All
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 Contemporary Planning Techniques
(cont’d)
• Scenario
– A consistent view of what the future is likely to be.
• Scenario Planning
– An attempt not try to predict the future but to
reduce uncertainty by playing out potential situations
under different specified conditions.
• Contingency Planning
– Developing scenarios that allow managers determine
in advance what their actions should be should a
considered event actually occur.

© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All

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 Exhibit 9–14 Preparing for Unexpected Events

• Identify potential unexpected events.

• Determine if any of these events would have early
indicators.
• Set up an information gathering system to identify early
indicators.
• Have appropriate responses (plans) in place if these
unexpected events occur.

Source: S. Caudron, “Frontview Mirror,” Business Finance, December 1999, pp. 24–30.
© 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All
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 Decision making
• Decision making is the process of making choices
by identifying a decision, gathering information,
and assessing alternative resolutions
• Definition of Decision-Making
• According to Haynes and Massie, ’Decision-
making is a process of selection from a set of
alternative courses of action which is thought to
fulfill the objective of the decision-problem more
satisfactorily than others’.
• In the words of George Terry, ‘Decision-making is
selecting an alternative, from two or more
alternatives, to determine an opinion or a course
of action’.
DECISION MAKING PROCESS

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6–87
 Step 1: Identifying the Problem
• Problem
– A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of
affairs.

• Characteristics of Problems
– A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes
aware of it.
– There is pressure to solve the problem.
– The manager must have the authority, information, or
resources needed to solve the problem.
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 Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria
• Decision criteria are factors that are important
(relevant) to resolving the problem.
– Costs that will be incurred (investments required)
– Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)
– Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)

Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria

• Decision criteria are not of equal importance:

➢ Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the
correct priority order of their importance in the decision
making process.
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 Step 4: Developing Alternatives
• Identifying viable alternatives
– Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the
problem.

Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives

• Appraising each alternative’s strengths and
weaknesses
➢ An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to
resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.

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 Step 6: Selecting an Alternative
• Choosing the best alternative
– The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.

Step 7: Implementing the Alternative

• Putting the chosen alternative into action.

➢ Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment
from those who will carry out the decision.

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 Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s
Effectiveness
• The soundness of the decision is judged by its
outcomes.
– How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes
resulting from the chosen alternatives?
– If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?

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Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases

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