Plan of Attack

16 June 2023 19:46

Session on Probability Basics Page 1

Terminology
15 June 2023 18:20

1. Random Experiment

An experiment is called random experiment if it satisfies the following two

conditions:

(i) It has more than one possible outcome.

(ii) It is not possible to predict the outcome in advance

2. Trial

Trial refers to a single execution of a random experiment. Each trial produces an

outcome.

3. Outcome

Outcome refers to a single possible result of a trial.

4. Sample Space

Sample Space of a random experiment is the set of all possible outcomes that can occur.
Generally, one random experiment will have one set of sample space.

5. Event

Event is a specific set of outcomes from a random experiment or process. Essentially, it's a
subset of the sample space. An event can include a single outcome, or it can include
multiple outcomes. One random experiments can have multiple events.

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Examples
16 June 2023 14:51

1. Rolling a die
2. Tossing a coin twice
3. Titanic example

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Types of Events
16 June 2023 08:29

1. Simple Event: Also known as an elementary event, a simple event is an event that consists
of exactly one outcome.

For example, when rolling a fair six-sided die, getting a 3 is a simple event.

2. Compound Event: A compound event consists of two or more simple events.

For example, when rolling a die, the event "rolling an odd number" is a compound event
because it consists of three simple events: rolling a 1, rolling a 3, or rolling a 5.

3. Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not
affect the probability of the occurrence of the other event.

For example, if you flip a coin and roll a die, the outcome of the coin flip does not affect the
outcome of the die roll.

4. Dependent Events: Events are dependent if the occurrence of one event does affect the
probability of the occurrence of the other event.

For example, if you draw two cards from a deck without replacement, the outcome of the
first draw affects the outcome of the second draw because there are fewer cards left in the
deck.

5. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events are mutually exclusive (or disjoint) if they cannot
both occur at the same time.

For example, when rolling a die, the events "roll a 2" and "roll a 4" are mutually exclusive
because a single roll of the die cannot result in both a 2 and a 4.

6. Exhaustive Events: A set of events is exhaustive if at least one of the events must occur
when the experiment is performed.

For example, when rolling a die, the events "roll an even number" and "roll an odd
number" are exhaustive because one or the other must occur on any roll.

7. Impossible event and Certain Event

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What is Probability
15 June 2023 18:14

In simplest terms, probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. It
is a fundamental concept in statistics and is used to make predictions and informed decisions
in a wide range of disciplines, including science, engineering, medicine, economics, and social
sciences.

Probability is usually expressed as a number between 0 and 1, inclusive:

• A probability of 0 means that an event will not happen.

• A probability of 1 means that an event will certainly happen.
• A probability of 0.5 means that an event will happen half the time (or that it is as likely to
happen as not to happen).

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Empirical Probability Vs Theoretical Probability
15 June 2023 18:15

Empirical Probability -

Empirical probability, also known as experimental probability, is a probability measure that is

based on observed data, rather than theoretical assumptions. It's calculated as the ratio of the
number of times a particular event occurs to the total number of trials.

A. Suppose that, in our 100 tosses, we get heads 55 times and tails 45 times. What is the empirical
probability of getting a head

B. Let's say you have a bag with 50 marbles. Out of these 50 marbles, 20 are red, 15 are blue, and 15 are
green. You start to draw marbles one at a time, replacing the marble back into the bag after each draw.
After 200 draws, you find that you've drawn a red marble 80 times, a blue marble 70 times, and a green
marble 50 times. What is the empirical probability of getting a red marble?

Theoretical Probability

Theoretical (or classical) probability is used when each outcome in a sample space is equally
likely to occur. If we denote an event of interest as Event A, we calculate the theoretical
probability of that event as:

Theoretical Probability of Event A = Number of Favourable Outcomes (that is, outcomes in

Event A) / Total Number of Outcomes in the Sample Space

A. Consider a scenario of tossing a fair coin 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly 2 heads.

B. Consider a scenario of rolling 2 dice. What is the probability of getting a sum = 7

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Random Variable
15 June 2023 18:16

In the context of probability theory, a random variable is a function that maps the Discrete RV
Continuous RV
outcomes of a random process (known as the sample space) to a set of real numbers.

Input: The input to the function is an outcome from the sample space of a random
process.

Output: The output of the function is a real number that we assign to each possible
outcome.

The transformation from input to output in the function of a random variable is

determined by how we choose to define the random variable.
And the choice of how to define a random variable often depends on the specific aspects
of the random process (or event) that you're interested in studying.

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Probability Distribution of a Random Variable
15 June 2023 18:16

A probability distribution is a list of all of the possible outcomes of a random variable along
with their corresponding probability values.

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Mean of a Random Variable
15 June 2023 18:17

The mean of a random variable, often called the expected value, is essentially the average
outcome of a random process that is repeated many times. More technically, it's a weighted
average of the possible outcomes of the random variable, where each outcome is weighted by
its probability of occurrence.

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Variance of a Random Variable
15 June 2023 18:17

The variance of a random variable is a statistical measurement that describes how much
individual observations in a group differ from the mean (expected value).

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